I don't see how he can even run Clinton close. He won't get the black vote, the Hispanic vote, the gay vote or the IQ vote.
Remove those groups from the equation before we even consider the average voter.
It will be embarrassingly one sided. Which is a good thing.
He also shouldn't get the female vote after his idiotic comments about abortion but Trump seems to be able to say and do anything without harming his popularity, which is extremely worrying!
I don't see how he can even run Clinton close. He won't get the black vote, the Hispanic vote, the gay vote or the IQ vote.
Remove those groups from the equation before we even consider the average voter.
It will be embarrassingly one sided. Which is a good thing.
Trump could scream about niggers, fags, wet backs and kikes for the next 6 months and still might win if people believe that he'll go after the big money interests in America. The irony of a trust fund billionaire like Trump riding the whirlwind of a peasants revolt is beyond parody but there's a lot of anger about so who knows.
I don't see how he can even run Clinton close. He won't get the black vote, the Hispanic vote, the gay vote or the IQ vote.
Remove those groups from the equation before we even consider the average voter.
It will be embarrassingly one sided. Which is a good thing.
Trump could scream about niggers, fags, wet backs and kikes for the next 6 months and still might win if people believe that he'll go after the big money interests in America. The irony of a trust fund billionaire like Trump riding the whirlwind of a peasants revolt is beyond parody but there's a lot of anger about so who knows.
This might have legs if the "scandal" surrounding Trump wasn't going to hit the fan later in the year. See @Red_in_SE8 post a little earlier.
I don't see how he can even run Clinton close. He won't get the black vote, the Hispanic vote, the gay vote or the IQ vote.
Remove those groups from the equation before we even consider the average voter.
It will be embarrassingly one sided. Which is a good thing.
Trump could scream about niggers, fags, wet backs and kikes for the next 6 months and still might win if people believe that he'll go after the big money interests in America. The irony of a trust fund billionaire like Trump riding the whirlwind of a peasants revolt is beyond parody but there's a lot of anger about so who knows.
This might have legs if the "scandal" surrounding Trump wasn't going to hit the fan later in the year. See @Red_in_SE8 post a little earlier.
That's what's so scary though. I'm sure Trump has scandals coming out of every orifice but will people be so angry with the status quo that they don't care?
I don't see how he can even run Clinton close. He won't get the black vote, the Hispanic vote, the gay vote or the IQ vote.
Remove those groups from the equation before we even consider the average voter.
It will be embarrassingly one sided. Which is a good thing.
You're forgetting that they are a minority and that most yanks are morons
Not as much of a minority as you may think. Last year was the first time in US history there were more non-whites than whites, with Anglo-Saxons making up 49% of the population. The problem historically is whites vote in far larger numbers (plus it's made deliberately hard to vote for various minority groups*)
A number of states have passed, or tried to pass laws that require voters to have a photo ID in order to vote, something which minorities then to have in far smaller numbers, and in Texas the government office that handles obtaining a fresh photo ID (if you haven't got a passport or drivers license already) was only open the 5th Wednesday of the month in 2015, and there were only 4 months with 5 Wednesdays. These laws are brought in to supposedly tackle voter fraud, but it's a tiny tiny issue, with single figure cases being found in millions upon millions of votes. So it isn't really to tackle the non-existent fraud, but it is good at stopping old white men getting voted out by those pesky minorities.
I don't see how he can even run Clinton close. He won't get the black vote, the Hispanic vote, the gay vote or the IQ vote.
Remove those groups from the equation before we even consider the average voter.
It will be embarrassingly one sided. Which is a good thing.
You're forgetting that they are a minority and that most yanks are morons
Not as much of a minority as you may think. Last year was the first time in US history there were more non-whites than whites, with Anglo-Saxons making up 49% of the population. The problem historically is whites vote in far larger numbers (plus it's made deliberately hard to vote for various minority groups*)
A number of states have passed, or tried to pass laws that require voters to have a photo ID in order to vote, something which minorities then to have in far smaller numbers, and in Texas the government office that handles obtaining a fresh photo ID (if you haven't got a passport or drivers license already) was only open the 5th Wednesday of the month in 2015, and there were only 4 months with 5 Wednesdays. These laws are brought in to supposedly tackle voter fraud, but it's a tiny tiny issue, with single figure cases being found in millions upon millions of votes. So it isn't really to tackle the non-existent fraud, but it is good at stopping old white men getting voted out by those pesky minorities.
Give this man a medal for his insight and knowledge (and his love of the John Oliver show).
One of the other large factors in why minorities don't vote is that they don't see candidates who look like themselves, or who speak to their needs. It's a reason why I don't vote all that often, because I don't see candidates who represent the poor and downtrodden in our country, especially when those at or near the poverty line in our country is 1 in 5 people(!!!!).
I don't see how he can even run Clinton close. He won't get the black vote, the Hispanic vote, the gay vote or the IQ vote.
Remove those groups from the equation before we even consider the average voter.
It will be embarrassingly one sided. Which is a good thing.
You're forgetting that they are a minority and that most yanks are morons
Not as much of a minority as you may think. Last year was the first time in US history there were more non-whites than whites, with Anglo-Saxons making up 49% of the population. The problem historically is whites vote in far larger numbers (plus it's made deliberately hard to vote for various minority groups*)
A number of states have passed, or tried to pass laws that require voters to have a photo ID in order to vote, something which minorities then to have in far smaller numbers, and in Texas the government office that handles obtaining a fresh photo ID (if you haven't got a passport or drivers license already) was only open the 5th Wednesday of the month in 2015, and there were only 4 months with 5 Wednesdays. These laws are brought in to supposedly tackle voter fraud, but it's a tiny tiny issue, with single figure cases being found in millions upon millions of votes. So it isn't really to tackle the non-existent fraud, but it is good at stopping old white men getting voted out by those pesky minorities.
Give this man a medal for his insight and knowledge (and his love of the John Oliver show).
One of the other large factors in why minorities don't vote is that they don't see candidates who look like themselves, or who speak to their needs. It's a reason why I don't vote all that often, because I don't see candidates who represent the poor and downtrodden in our country, especially when those at or near the poverty line in our country is 1 in 5 people(!!!!).
Got to love John Oliver Plus I worked in the US on and off for 5 years (mostly based in the UK, but flew over around a dozen times), so have a lot of good friends in the US, at least a few of whom have a decent appreciation of the American politic scene.
I should also add that the current US election is a classic reason people don't vote. They see no right choice, so they choose neither. You have a choice currently between a lying, selfish, possibly racists, apparently mad Trump, versus a lying, selfish, old establishment, likely corrupt Clinton. Neither is worth voting for, you just have to choose who you hate the least.
I should also add that the current US election is a classic reason people don't vote. They see no right choice, so they choose neither. You have a choice currently between a lying, selfish, possibly racists, apparently mad Trump, versus a lying, selfish, old establishment, likely corrupt Clinton. Neither is worth voting for, you just have to choose who you hate the least.
That seems to be where Trump is picking up his votes. It seems Republicans who dislike Trump are more likely to still vote for him than Democrats who dislike Clinton are to vote for her.
Oh, and definitely agree on John Oliver. He is hilarious but also extremely informative.
I don't see how he can even run Clinton close. He won't get the black vote, the Hispanic vote, the gay vote or the IQ vote.
Remove those groups from the equation before we even consider the average voter.
It will be embarrassingly one sided. Which is a good thing.
You're forgetting that they are a minority and that most yanks are morons
Not as much of a minority as you may think. Last year was the first time in US history there were more non-whites than whites, with Anglo-Saxons making up 49% of the population. The problem historically is whites vote in far larger numbers (plus it's made deliberately hard to vote for various minority groups*)
A number of states have passed, or tried to pass laws that require voters to have a photo ID in order to vote, something which minorities then to have in far smaller numbers, and in Texas the government office that handles obtaining a fresh photo ID (if you haven't got a passport or drivers license already) was only open the 5th Wednesday of the month in 2015, and there were only 4 months with 5 Wednesdays. These laws are brought in to supposedly tackle voter fraud, but it's a tiny tiny issue, with single figure cases being found in millions upon millions of votes. So it isn't really to tackle the non-existent fraud, but it is good at stopping old white men getting voted out by those pesky minorities.
Give this man a medal for his insight and knowledge (and his love of the John Oliver show).
One of the other large factors in why minorities don't vote is that they don't see candidates who look like themselves, or who speak to their needs. It's a reason why I don't vote all that often, because I don't see candidates who represent the poor and downtrodden in our country, especially when those at or near the poverty line in our country is 1 in 5 people(!!!!).
Got to love John Oliver Plus I worked in the US on and off for 5 years (mostly based in the UK, but flew over around a dozen times), so have a lot of good friends in the US, at least a few of whom have a decent appreciation of the American politic scene.
I should also add that the current US election is a classic reason people don't vote. They see no right choice, so they choose neither. You have a choice currently between a lying, selfish, possibly racists, apparently mad Trump, versus a lying, selfish, old establishment, likely corrupt Clinton. Neither is worth voting for, you just have to choose who you hate the least.
A very good assessment on why many don't vote, unfortunately. This is something I could go on and on about, and I've already written a novella in the gun debate thread, but the big, underlying reason is the influence of money in politics. This leads to candidates with specific interests, high incumbency rates, etc., etc.
I don't see how he can even run Clinton close. He won't get the black vote, the Hispanic vote, the gay vote or the IQ vote.
Remove those groups from the equation before we even consider the average voter.
It will be embarrassingly one sided. Which is a good thing.
You're forgetting that they are a minority and that most yanks are morons
Not as much of a minority as you may think. Last year was the first time in US history there were more non-whites than whites, with Anglo-Saxons making up 49% of the population. The problem historically is whites vote in far larger numbers (plus it's made deliberately hard to vote for various minority groups*)
A number of states have passed, or tried to pass laws that require voters to have a photo ID in order to vote, something which minorities then to have in far smaller numbers, and in Texas the government office that handles obtaining a fresh photo ID (if you haven't got a passport or drivers license already) was only open the 5th Wednesday of the month in 2015, and there were only 4 months with 5 Wednesdays. These laws are brought in to supposedly tackle voter fraud, but it's a tiny tiny issue, with single figure cases being found in millions upon millions of votes. So it isn't really to tackle the non-existent fraud, but it is good at stopping old white men getting voted out by those pesky minorities.
Give this man a medal for his insight and knowledge (and his love of the John Oliver show).
One of the other large factors in why minorities don't vote is that they don't see candidates who look like themselves, or who speak to their needs. It's a reason why I don't vote all that often, because I don't see candidates who represent the poor and downtrodden in our country, especially when those at or near the poverty line in our country is 1 in 5 people(!!!!).
Got to love John Oliver Plus I worked in the US on and off for 5 years (mostly based in the UK, but flew over around a dozen times), so have a lot of good friends in the US, at least a few of whom have a decent appreciation of the American politic scene.
I should also add that the current US election is a classic reason people don't vote. They see no right choice, so they choose neither. You have a choice currently between a lying, selfish, possibly racists, apparently mad Trump, versus a lying, selfish, old establishment, likely corrupt Clinton. Neither is worth voting for, you just have to choose who you hate the least.
A very good assessment on why many don't vote, unfortunately. This is something I could go on and on about, and I've already written a novella in the gun debate thread, but the big, underlying reason is the influence of money in politics. This leads to candidates with specific interests, high incumbency rates, etc., etc.
Well your country passed laws that made bribery (sorry, campaign contributions) legal, and no conressman is going to vote away that gravy train. I fear it's going to take another revolution to undo the mess that American politics has become.
He is an extremely smart operator and is taping into the anger and frustrations of those that feel entirely disaffected and unheard... he is fueling their anger... and giving his supporters targets for them to place that hate... which is making them feel better... in their bigotted, unevolved, 10 year old thinking, way.
This will be an entirely negative campaign from both sides, constantly attacking the other, and Trump is better at that than Hilary, Hilary is also extremely vulnerable because of the email scandals, far more so than Trump who gets stronger and stronger the more he is attacked.
We needed Sanders desperately, but he couldn't get over the top.
So here we are.
He has not got a hope. Pretty much everything is known about Hillary. The E.mail scandal is just another desperate Benghazzi witch hunt that will go nowhere. When his tax returns eventually get released they will probably show he has virtually paid no tax over the last few years. There are probably a whole series of attack ads in production now titled Draft Dodger Donald. There are interviews from the 90s in which he actually claimed he went through his own personal Vietnam when he was whoring around Manhatten. This from the man who insulted a genuine Vietnam war hero. There is a lot more mileage in the Trump University scandal. There will also be many ads about the blatant racist practices he used when renting out apartments in his buildings in the seventies not to mention the illegal methods he used to force evictions from his buildings. Obama is going to rip him to pieces during the summer. When we get to the debates Hillary will show him up to be the clueless ignorant man-child blow-hard that he really is.
I don't see how he can even run Clinton close. He won't get the black vote, the Hispanic vote, the gay vote or the IQ vote.
Remove those groups from the equation before we even consider the average voter.
It will be embarrassingly one sided. Which is a good thing.
You're forgetting that they are a minority and that most yanks are morons
Not as much of a minority as you may think. Last year was the first time in US history there were more non-whites than whites, with Anglo-Saxons making up 49% of the population. The problem historically is whites vote in far larger numbers (plus it's made deliberately hard to vote for various minority groups*)
A number of states have passed, or tried to pass laws that require voters to have a photo ID in order to vote, something which minorities then to have in far smaller numbers, and in Texas the government office that handles obtaining a fresh photo ID (if you haven't got a passport or drivers license already) was only open the 5th Wednesday of the month in 2015, and there were only 4 months with 5 Wednesdays. These laws are brought in to supposedly tackle voter fraud, but it's a tiny tiny issue, with single figure cases being found in millions upon millions of votes. So it isn't really to tackle the non-existent fraud, but it is good at stopping old white men getting voted out by those pesky minorities.
Give this man a medal for his insight and knowledge (and his love of the John Oliver show).
One of the other large factors in why minorities don't vote is that they don't see candidates who look like themselves, or who speak to their needs. It's a reason why I don't vote all that often, because I don't see candidates who represent the poor and downtrodden in our country, especially when those at or near the poverty line in our country is 1 in 5 people(!!!!).
Got to love John Oliver Plus I worked in the US on and off for 5 years (mostly based in the UK, but flew over around a dozen times), so have a lot of good friends in the US, at least a few of whom have a decent appreciation of the American politic scene.
I should also add that the current US election is a classic reason people don't vote. They see no right choice, so they choose neither. You have a choice currently between a lying, selfish, possibly racists, apparently mad Trump, versus a lying, selfish, old establishment, likely corrupt Clinton. Neither is worth voting for, you just have to choose who you hate the least.
A very good assessment on why many don't vote, unfortunately. This is something I could go on and on about, and I've already written a novella in the gun debate thread, but the big, underlying reason is the influence of money in politics. This leads to candidates with specific interests, high incumbency rates, etc., etc.
Well your country passed laws that made bribery (sorry, campaign contributions) legal, and no conressman is going to vote away that gravy train. I fear it's going to take another revolution to undo the mess that American politics has become.
Yeah and we're not a revolutionary type, short of the hard, hard right wing neo Nazis which is a very small minority.
The hope is that things will change via the courts, namely that money will at some point no longer be ecquivocated to speech, and that the Citizens United decision, where the Supreme Court ruled that companies have the same rights as people, will be overturned. When you look through a lot of American history, progress is often made through the courts, and we just had this happen with gay marriage after numerous states, including my home state of California, voted on its legality with mixed results.
One thing Trump and Sanders have in common is that they're indications that "politics as usual" really pisses people off. This has been the case on the far right for some time, as we saw with the Tea Party movement in the late naughties. But that movement has all but fizzled out. I think there is a similar movement brewing on the left now, especially because baby boomers are really starting to age.
I was a teenager through the W. Bush presidency, and those were very dark times, and I grew incredibly cynical as a result. There has been a movement toward progress and modernity since then, and even in the wake of Orlando, I am quietly more optimistic about the future of my country now than I ever remember having been before.
*when I say "right" "far right" etc. I am talking in American political terms, which does not have a mainstream equivalent in the UK. I try hard to avoid sweeping generalizations, or to blame things on one side of the aisle because I am harshly critical of both major parties. Just want to add this because I do not intend to start a "right versus left" as gross generalizations debate.
The US electorate has about 14% Latinos, 10% African-American and 7% Asian - and Trump is losing all those groups by around 9:1.
That means Clinton already has 27-28% of the popular vote in the bag - so Trump has to win an overwhelming majority of white voters to even come close. Oh, and that might be a little tough since he is losing women by 64:36.
There is a good news for Donald though, he is ahead by 2:1 among poor uneducated white voters - I think that tells you everything you need to know.
Trump is effectively a right wing version of Corbyn who has led an insurgent movement to take over an established party but whose appeal is far too narrow to play on the national stage.
The US electorate has about 14% Latinos, 10% African-American and 7% Asian - and Trump is losing all those groups by around 9:1.
That means Clinton already has 27-28% of the popular vote in the bag - so Trump has to win an overwhelming majority of white voters to even come close. Oh, and that might be a little tough since he is losing women by 64:36.
There is a good news for Donald though, he is ahead by 2:1 among poor uneducated white voters - I think that tells you everything you need to know.
Trump is effectively a right wing version of Corbyn who has led an insurgent movement to take over an established party but whose appeal is far too narrow to play on the national stage.
Great analysis and those numbers do stack up but, just imagine the body count on here IF he does? They will be carrying out swaves of lifers in body bags IF he wins...
The US electorate has about 14% Latinos, 10% African-American and 7% Asian - and Trump is losing all those groups by around 9:1.
That means Clinton already has 27-28% of the popular vote in the bag - so Trump has to win an overwhelming majority of white voters to even come close. Oh, and that might be a little tough since he is losing women by 64:36.
There is a good news for Donald though, he is ahead by 2:1 among poor uneducated white voters - I think that tells you everything you need to know.
Trump is effectively a right wing version of Corbyn who has led an insurgent movement to take over an established party but whose appeal is far too narrow to play on the national stage.
Logic says you're right OA and yet Trump is 5/2 to win the election, hardly the rank outsider he should be. What if Trump can paint Hillary as a stooge of Wall Street and then convince poor Blacks, Hispanics and Whites that he'll fleece the rich and redistribute to them? Interesting times.
The US electorate has about 14% Latinos, 10% African-American and 7% Asian - and Trump is losing all those groups by around 9:1.
That means Clinton already has 27-28% of the popular vote in the bag - so Trump has to win an overwhelming majority of white voters to even come close. Oh, and that might be a little tough since he is losing women by 64:36.
There is a good news for Donald though, he is ahead by 2:1 among poor uneducated white voters - I think that tells you everything you need to know.
Trump is effectively a right wing version of Corbyn who has led an insurgent movement to take over an established party but whose appeal is far too narrow to play on the national stage.
Logic says you're right OA and yet Trump is 5/2 to win the election, hardly the rank outsider he should be. What if Trump can paint Hillary as a stooge of Wall Street and then convince poor Blacks, Hispanics and Whites that he'll fleece the rich and redistribute to them? Interesting times.
Well, we just don't have any certainty about what is going to happen.
What we do know is that the electoral college Has heavily favoured Democrats in the recent elections because of the demographic changes in the United States.
That would seem to suggest that a Trump victory is a very unlikely but we really just do not know.
The US electorate has about 14% Latinos, 10% African-American and 7% Asian - and Trump is losing all those groups by around 9:1.
That means Clinton already has 27-28% of the popular vote in the bag - so Trump has to win an overwhelming majority of white voters to even come close. Oh, and that might be a little tough since he is losing women by 64:36.
There is a good news for Donald though, he is ahead by 2:1 among poor uneducated white voters - I think that tells you everything you need to know.
Trump is effectively a right wing version of Corbyn who has led an insurgent movement to take over an established party but whose appeal is far too narrow to play on the national stage.
Logic says you're right OA and yet Trump is 5/2 to win the election, hardly the rank outsider he should be. What if Trump can paint Hillary as a stooge of Wall Street and then convince poor Blacks, Hispanics and Whites that he'll fleece the rich and redistribute to them? Interesting times.
Well, we just don't have any certainty about what is going to happen.
What we do know is that the electoral college Has heavily favoured Democrats in the recent elections because of the demographic changes in the United States.
That would seem to suggest that a Trump victory is a very unlikely but we really just do not know.
If people vote along racial lines your analysis is correct. If the key demographic determinator is socioeconomic Trump has a chance as Clinton is going to have a problem convincing people that she's not a rich mans stooge (the irony of Trump painting himself as the champion of the poor isn't lost on me btw).
Comments
That is the truly worrying thing for America and the World.
A number of states have passed, or tried to pass laws that require voters to have a photo ID in order to vote, something which minorities then to have in far smaller numbers, and in Texas the government office that handles obtaining a fresh photo ID (if you haven't got a passport or drivers license already) was only open the 5th Wednesday of the month in 2015, and there were only 4 months with 5 Wednesdays. These laws are brought in to supposedly tackle voter fraud, but it's a tiny tiny issue, with single figure cases being found in millions upon millions of votes. So it isn't really to tackle the non-existent fraud, but it is good at stopping old white men getting voted out by those pesky minorities.
One of the other large factors in why minorities don't vote is that they don't see candidates who look like themselves, or who speak to their needs. It's a reason why I don't vote all that often, because I don't see candidates who represent the poor and downtrodden in our country, especially when those at or near the poverty line in our country is 1 in 5 people(!!!!).
I should also add that the current US election is a classic reason people don't vote. They see no right choice, so they choose neither. You have a choice currently between a lying, selfish, possibly racists, apparently mad Trump, versus a lying, selfish, old establishment, likely corrupt Clinton. Neither is worth voting for, you just have to choose who you hate the least.
Oh, and definitely agree on John Oliver. He is hilarious but also extremely informative.
All other americans... less than 500 years....
Donald Trump? Too long.
Take your pick of which groups fingerprints will be found on the smoking gun left on the grassy mound.
"Since Bernie didn't win the nomination, I'm gonna vote for Trump. Also, since the store didn't have my favorite beer, I'm gonna drink bleach."
The hope is that things will change via the courts, namely that money will at some point no longer be ecquivocated to speech, and that the Citizens United decision, where the Supreme Court ruled that companies have the same rights as people, will be overturned. When you look through a lot of American history, progress is often made through the courts, and we just had this happen with gay marriage after numerous states, including my home state of California, voted on its legality with mixed results.
One thing Trump and Sanders have in common is that they're indications that "politics as usual" really pisses people off. This has been the case on the far right for some time, as we saw with the Tea Party movement in the late naughties. But that movement has all but fizzled out. I think there is a similar movement brewing on the left now, especially because baby boomers are really starting to age.
I was a teenager through the W. Bush presidency, and those were very dark times, and I grew incredibly cynical as a result. There has been a movement toward progress and modernity since then, and even in the wake of Orlando, I am quietly more optimistic about the future of my country now than I ever remember having been before.
*when I say "right" "far right" etc. I am talking in American political terms, which does not have a mainstream equivalent in the UK. I try hard to avoid sweeping generalizations, or to blame things on one side of the aisle because I am harshly critical of both major parties. Just want to add this because I do not intend to start a "right versus left" as gross generalizations debate.
The US electorate has about 14% Latinos, 10% African-American and 7% Asian - and Trump is losing all those groups by around 9:1.
That means Clinton already has 27-28% of the popular vote in the bag - so Trump has to win an overwhelming majority of white voters to even come close. Oh, and that might be a little tough since he is losing women by 64:36.
There is a good news for Donald though, he is ahead by 2:1 among poor uneducated white voters - I think that tells you everything you need to know.
Trump is effectively a right wing version of Corbyn who has led an insurgent movement to take over an established party but whose appeal is far too narrow to play on the national stage.
What we do know is that the electoral college Has heavily favoured Democrats in the recent elections because of the demographic changes in the United States.
That would seem to suggest that a Trump victory is a very unlikely but we really just do not know.
The bookies haven't a scooby though they had Labour and Tories neck and neck last year and had remain as red hot favourite throughout.
Hold onto your hats liberals!