FTSE down another 4% today, largely in response to China retaliating with like for like 34% tariff on all US imports.
I am so pleased I'm almost exclusively in cash now - must be a nightmare for pension funds.
Time to go in then. Maybe leave it until the start of next week as the US will probably fall again today.
In the light of previous market "downturns" this is currently not so bad. During the first month of lockdown in March 2020 most equity markets fell c25%. Same for Black Friday in 1987. The week following the Great Storm both UK & US markets were down 20%+.
However, in both 1987 and 2020 the markets ended the year higher than they started. And 2021 was a great year.....esp for the US. Then inflation kicked in & interest rates went up. Then there was Liz Truss.
FTSE down another 4% today, largely in response to China retaliating with like for like 34% tariff on all US imports.
I am so pleased I'm almost exclusively in cash now - must be a nightmare for pension funds.
Time to go in then. Maybe leave it until the start of next week as the US will probably fall again today.
In the light of previous market "downturns" this is currently not so bad. During the first month of lockdown in March 2020 most equity markets fell c25%. Same for Black Friday in 1987. The week following the Great Storm both UK & US markets were down 20%+.
However, in both 1987 and 2020 the markets ended the year higher than they started. And 2021 was a great year.....esp for the US. Then inflation kicked in & interest rates went up. Then there was Liz Truss.
Nobody has a clue how this will pan out in the long term - it"s just complete guesswork. Trump is completely unpredictable and illogical and the way the tariffs have been calculated is frightening.
Not sure what historical precedent we can look at here given how bizarre his behaviour is.
FTSE down another 4% today, largely in response to China retaliating with like for like 34% tariff on all US imports.
I am so pleased I'm almost exclusively in cash now - must be a nightmare for pension funds.
Time to go in then. Maybe leave it until the start of next week as the US will probably fall again today.
In the light of previous market "downturns" this is currently not so bad. During the first month of lockdown in March 2020 most equity markets fell c25%. Same for Black Friday in 1987. The week following the Great Storm both UK & US markets were down 20%+.
However, in both 1987 and 2020 the markets ended the year higher than they started. And 2021 was a great year.....esp for the US. Then inflation kicked in & interest rates went up. Then there was Liz Truss.
Nobody has a clue how this will pan out in the long term - it"s just complete guesswork. Trump is completely unpredictable and illogical and the way the tariffs have been calculated is frightening.
Not sure what historical precedent we can look at here given how bizarre his behaviour is.
FTSE down another 4% today, largely in response to China retaliating with like for like 34% tariff on all US imports.
I am so pleased I'm almost exclusively in cash now - must be a nightmare for pension funds.
Time to go in then. Maybe leave it until the start of next week as the US will probably fall again today.
In the light of previous market "downturns" this is currently not so bad. During the first month of lockdown in March 2020 most equity markets fell c25%. Same for Black Friday in 1987. The week following the Great Storm both UK & US markets were down 20%+.
However, in both 1987 and 2020 the markets ended the year higher than they started. And 2021 was a great year.....esp for the US. Then inflation kicked in & interest rates went up. Then there was Liz Truss.
Not a chance - nothing is long-term when you're as old as me!
As I’m risk adverse I’ve always wondered why my FA didn’t keep more of my SIPP in cash in case of such circumstances.
I'm afraid IFA's are just like the rest of the population and cant second guess the market.
If you had 20% sitting in case & the market had shot up 10% you'd be questioning why you weren't fully invested.
You should be invested as per your attitude to risk. If you are totally risk adverse you shouldn't invest. From then on in it's really just a sliding scale depending on your risk attitude. A few general examples -
Cautious - 30/70 split between equities & Bonds, Property etc
Balanced - 50/50
Moderate - 65/35
Dynamic - 80/20
Adventurous - 100
Also, by the time any adviser realises what's going on it's too late, especially as all dealings are done on a forward basis. So even if you sold at 8am this morning you'd be dealing at values based on today's close. You might get lucky and the fund prices at noon.
At the end of the day invest your money to a level of risk you are comfortable with and keep a certain amount in cash / premium bonds as your buffer.
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.
When the markets dived in August, due I think to Deepseek, I decided to cash in a chunk of my pension. Typically, all the losses were reversed within the week and hindsight says I should have sat tight.
I switched out of the US at the start of the year and this week decided to sit on my hands. I'll be very pleasantly surprised if the markets recover quickly.
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.
The US is not the economic force it once was - that much is obvious. Trump is a narcissist and a bully whose only concern is himself - the Republican Party and Congress have effectively become part of the Trump cult.
He's a dangerous unstable character who is economically illiterate - the farcical way he's calculated tariffs based on trade deficits clearly illustrates this.
He will make the world a more unstable place and ultimately constantly appeasing him will just lead to him asking for more. Starmer knows the UK is too weak to stand up to him and you can't trust any deal he agrees to. He is only too happy to renege on agreements.
We just have to hope the damage he causes across the globe is limited. The US is no longer a reliable trading partner.
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.
I agree. Smashing a whole load of tariffs on American products will hurt us more than it will hurt the Americans.
We need to play the game and see if there’s a deal to be done which mitigates the damage without knee jerk reactions.
More pain to come next week, or do people think they’ll be an upward bounce?
No one knows.
Thank you CE, thats the honest answer, I guess this is going to be know as the ‘Trump Dump’ and when things pick up and get going again, the Trump pump.
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.
I agree. Smashing a whole load of tariffs on American products will hurt us more than it will hurt the Americans.
We need to play the game and see if there’s a deal to be done which mitigates the damage without knee jerk reactions.
What game exactly? Trump systematically bullies opponents and is more than happy to renege on agreements. Wasn't it Trump who signed a free trade agreement in 2019 with Mexico and Canada?(USMCA)
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.
The US is not the economic force it once was - that much is obvious. Trump is a narcissist and a bully whose only concern is himself - the Republican Party and Congress have effectively become part of the Trump cult.
He's a dangerous unstable character who is economically illiterate - the farcical way he's calculated tariffs based on trade deficits clearly illustrates this.
He will make the world a more unstable place and ultimately constantly appeasing him will just lead to him asking for more. Starmer knows the UK is too weak to stand up to him and you can't trust any deal he agrees to. He is only too happy to renege on agreements.
We just have to hope the damage he causes across the globe is limited. The US is no longer a reliable trading partner.
Doing my small bit by avoiding buying anything from the US.
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.
The US is not the economic force it once was - that much is obvious. Trump is a narcissist and a bully whose only concern is himself - the Republican Party and Congress have effectively become part of the Trump cult.
He's a dangerous unstable character who is economically illiterate - the farcical way he's calculated tariffs based on trade deficits clearly illustrates this.
He will make the world a more unstable place and ultimately constantly appeasing him will just lead to him asking for more. Starmer knows the UK is too weak to stand up to him and you can't trust any deal he agrees to. He is only too happy to renege on agreements.
We just have to hope the damage he causes across the globe is limited. The US is no longer a reliable trading partner.
Doing my small bit by avoiding buying anything from the US.
I think this is the way to go, a non governmental boycott of US products makes it more difficult for Donny to respond, it's simple supply and demand. I don't knowingly buy American stuff anyway. I've not bought a Tesla and will now not be buying a lot more! Have that, you orange freak.
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.
The US is not the economic force it once was - that much is obvious. Trump is a narcissist and a bully whose only concern is himself - the Republican Party and Congress have effectively become part of the Trump cult.
He's a dangerous unstable character who is economically illiterate - the farcical way he's calculated tariffs based on trade deficits clearly illustrates this.
He will make the world a more unstable place and ultimately constantly appeasing him will just lead to him asking for more. Starmer knows the UK is too weak to stand up to him and you can't trust any deal he agrees to. He is only too happy to renege on agreements.
We just have to hope the damage he causes across the globe is limited. The US is no longer a reliable trading partner.
Doing my small bit by avoiding buying anything from the US.
I think this is the way to go, a non governmental boycott of US products makes it more difficult for Donny to respond, it's simple supply and demand. I don't knowingly buy American stuff anyway. I've not bought a Tesla and will now not be buying a lot more! Have that, you orange freak.
Looking around my gaff the only US stuff I have is the tech stuff, basically Apple. There’s the Netflix and HBO subs I guess. Nothing else. No American food brand stuff. Just been checking out some outdoor recliner chairs, and eyeing a Canadian brand. A lot of German brands, and all the furniture is European. British bed, and hifi stuff, includes a Sonos Connect box which is the weak link. LG TV. Honestly, rhetoric aside, if you are not a fast or packaged food fan, what is it that Trump thinks we should buy?
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.
I agree. Smashing a whole load of tariffs on American products will hurt us more than it will hurt the Americans.
We need to play the game and see if there’s a deal to be done which mitigates the damage without knee jerk reactions.
What game exactly? Trump systematically bullies opponents and is more than happy to renege on agreements. Wasn't it Trump who signed a free trade agreement in 2019 with Mexico and Canada?(USMCA)
Trump likes to portray himself as a winner and a master negotiator, he thinks that’s what he’s known for. So we should give him something that he can claim to his base is a victory in exchange for the thing(s) that we want/need.
I actually agree with Redman that Starmer has played the game pretty well so far, but the next steps will be tough. We should assume that, if there is a deal to be done, that it’s only temporary but may buy us time to sort out better terms with other trade partners (namely, but not exclusively, the EU).
What happens Monday will likely be as a consequence of what happens over the weekend. China started the response to tariffs today and the markets tumbled. If, over the weekend, the EU announce their response and it's tit for tat, and others follow suit then the markets are probably only going one way. There's also the Trump response to reprisals, he could soften (very unlikely) or he could double down with 'I see your 34% China and I raise another 20%.
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.
The US is not the economic force it once was - that much is obvious. Trump is a narcissist and a bully whose only concern is himself - the Republican Party and Congress have effectively become part of the Trump cult.
He's a dangerous unstable character who is economically illiterate - the farcical way he's calculated tariffs based on trade deficits clearly illustrates this.
He will make the world a more unstable place and ultimately constantly appeasing him will just lead to him asking for more. Starmer knows the UK is too weak to stand up to him and you can't trust any deal he agrees to. He is only too happy to renege on agreements.
We just have to hope the damage he causes across the globe is limited. The US is no longer a reliable trading partner.
This sounds more like a rant that having a disagreement with what I said. Nevertheless have your rant if it makes you feel any better.
Did the big one time contribution to private pension today. Thanks for those who provided insight. Felt like a significant moment to part ways with a fairly big sum of money that I won't be able to touch for another 20 years at least, but I think its the right move.
I'm glad I just put it in cash (for now). Would have been quite a tough one to watch had it gone in the day before the worst economic moment in half a decade.
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.
The US is not the economic force it once was - that much is obvious. Trump is a narcissist and a bully whose only concern is himself - the Republican Party and Congress have effectively become part of the Trump cult.
He's a dangerous unstable character who is economically illiterate - the farcical way he's calculated tariffs based on trade deficits clearly illustrates this.
He will make the world a more unstable place and ultimately constantly appeasing him will just lead to him asking for more. Starmer knows the UK is too weak to stand up to him and you can't trust any deal he agrees to. He is only too happy to renege on agreements.
We just have to hope the damage he causes across the globe is limited. The US is no longer a reliable trading partner.
Doing my small bit by avoiding buying anything from the US.
I think this is the way to go, a non governmental boycott of US products makes it more difficult for Donny to respond, it's simple supply and demand. I don't knowingly buy American stuff anyway. I've not bought a Tesla and will now not be buying a lot more! Have that, you orange freak.
Looking around my gaff the only US stuff I have is the tech stuff, basically Apple. There’s the Netflix and HBO subs I guess. Nothing else. No American food brand stuff. Just been checking out some outdoor recliner chairs, and eyeing a Canadian brand. A lot of German brands, and all the furniture is European. British bed, and hifi stuff, includes a Sonos Connect box which is the weak link. LG TV. Honestly, rhetoric aside, if you are not a fast or packaged food fan, what is it that Trump thinks we should buy?
Monster trucks and maga hats! I don't actually think there's much in the way of consumer stuff, it's all tech shit which is unfortunately deeply embedded, Amazon, Google, eBay etc., all companies that don't pay enough tax. It's why Amazon invoices come from Amazon EURL, not Amazon UK limited. The digital services tax should be ramped up but be permitted to be offset against their corporate tax liability, if any. We should look much harder at the general offshoring of IP to artificially reduce CT in the UK. Starbucks, I'm looking at you. (Your coffee is shit as well.) But many companies do it, and I've worked for some. Never got my trip to the Caymans for Kelkoo though. I won't mention Lee Cooper either, though that was only Cyprus.
Comments
What an orator.... He is a complete lunatic...
Just makes up random figures.
In the light of previous market "downturns" this is currently not so bad. During the first month of lockdown in March 2020 most equity markets fell c25%. Same for Black Friday in 1987. The week following the Great Storm both UK & US markets were down 20%+.
However, in both 1987 and 2020 the markets ended the year higher than they started. And 2021 was a great year.....esp for the US. Then inflation kicked in & interest rates went up. Then there was Liz Truss.
Not sure what historical precedent we can look at here given how bizarre his behaviour is.
Interesting article on how US democracy is breaking down by failing to rein in an authoritarian leader. Congress is failing in its duty...
Interesting watch on how Trump is using tariffs as a political weapon... Senator Chris Murphy.
If you had 20% sitting in case & the market had shot up 10% you'd be questioning why you weren't fully invested.
You should be invested as per your attitude to risk. If you are totally risk adverse you shouldn't invest. From then on in it's really just a sliding scale depending on your risk attitude. A few general examples -
Cautious - 30/70 split between equities & Bonds, Property etc
Balanced - 50/50
Moderate - 65/35
Dynamic - 80/20
Adventurous - 100
Also, by the time any adviser realises what's going on it's too late, especially as all dealings are done on a forward basis. So even if you sold at 8am this morning you'd be dealing at values based on today's close. You might get lucky and the fund prices at noon.
At the end of the day invest your money to a level of risk you are comfortable with and keep a certain amount in cash / premium bonds as your buffer.
I switched out of the US at the start of the year and this week decided to sit on my hands.
I'll be very pleasantly surprised if the markets recover quickly.
He's a dangerous unstable character who is economically illiterate - the farcical way he's calculated tariffs based on trade deficits clearly illustrates this.
He will make the world a more unstable place and ultimately constantly appeasing him will just lead to him asking for more. Starmer knows the UK is too weak to stand up to him and you can't trust any deal he agrees to. He is only too happy to renege on agreements.
We just have to hope the damage he causes across the globe is limited. The US is no longer a reliable trading partner.
I'm glad I just put it in cash (for now). Would have been quite a tough one to watch had it gone in the day before the worst economic moment in half a decade.