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Savings and Investments thread
Comments
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https://youtu.be/KxunIiV9q4o?si=V7q6h1GUV9W0PB0N
What an orator.... He is a complete lunatic...
Just makes up random figures.3 -
Correct.Friend Or Defoe said:
True, but the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act made it far far worse.se9addick said:
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.Friend Or Defoe said:
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Time to go in then. Maybe leave it until the start of next week as the US will probably fall again today.bobmunro said:FTSE down another 4% today, largely in response to China retaliating with like for like 34% tariff on all US imports.I am so pleased I'm almost exclusively in cash now - must be a nightmare for pension funds.
In the light of previous market "downturns" this is currently not so bad. During the first month of lockdown in March 2020 most equity markets fell c25%. Same for Black Friday in 1987. The week following the Great Storm both UK & US markets were down 20%+.
However, in both 1987 and 2020 the markets ended the year higher than they started. And 2021 was a great year.....esp for the US. Then inflation kicked in & interest rates went up. Then there was Liz Truss.
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What America would do for a leader with the financial expertise of Liz Truss...11
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Nobody has a clue how this will pan out in the long term - it"s just complete guesswork. Trump is completely unpredictable and illogical and the way the tariffs have been calculated is frightening.golfaddick said:
Time to go in then. Maybe leave it until the start of next week as the US will probably fall again today.bobmunro said:FTSE down another 4% today, largely in response to China retaliating with like for like 34% tariff on all US imports.I am so pleased I'm almost exclusively in cash now - must be a nightmare for pension funds.
In the light of previous market "downturns" this is currently not so bad. During the first month of lockdown in March 2020 most equity markets fell c25%. Same for Black Friday in 1987. The week following the Great Storm both UK & US markets were down 20%+.
However, in both 1987 and 2020 the markets ended the year higher than they started. And 2021 was a great year.....esp for the US. Then inflation kicked in & interest rates went up. Then there was Liz Truss.
Not sure what historical precedent we can look at here given how bizarre his behaviour is.3 -
https://www.vox.com/politics/407053/trump-tariff-expensive-democracy-authoritarianism-breakdown
Interesting article on how US democracy is breaking down by failing to rein in an authoritarian leader. Congress is failing in its duty...3 -
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DIALTQjMKma/?igsh=ZHoyMDI4eHpnYjR5
Interesting watch on how Trump is using tariffs as a political weapon... Senator Chris Murphy.2 -
JFK with a bit of luckhoof_it_up_to_benty said:
Nobody has a clue how this will pan out in the long term - it"s just complete guesswork. Trump is completely unpredictable and illogical and the way the tariffs have been calculated is frightening.golfaddick said:
Time to go in then. Maybe leave it until the start of next week as the US will probably fall again today.bobmunro said:FTSE down another 4% today, largely in response to China retaliating with like for like 34% tariff on all US imports.I am so pleased I'm almost exclusively in cash now - must be a nightmare for pension funds.
In the light of previous market "downturns" this is currently not so bad. During the first month of lockdown in March 2020 most equity markets fell c25%. Same for Black Friday in 1987. The week following the Great Storm both UK & US markets were down 20%+.
However, in both 1987 and 2020 the markets ended the year higher than they started. And 2021 was a great year.....esp for the US. Then inflation kicked in & interest rates went up. Then there was Liz Truss.
Not sure what historical precedent we can look at here given how bizarre his behaviour is.1 -
golfaddick said:
Time to go in then. Maybe leave it until the start of next week as the US will probably fall again today.bobmunro said:FTSE down another 4% today, largely in response to China retaliating with like for like 34% tariff on all US imports.I am so pleased I'm almost exclusively in cash now - must be a nightmare for pension funds.
In the light of previous market "downturns" this is currently not so bad. During the first month of lockdown in March 2020 most equity markets fell c25%. Same for Black Friday in 1987. The week following the Great Storm both UK & US markets were down 20%+.
However, in both 1987 and 2020 the markets ended the year higher than they started. And 2021 was a great year.....esp for the US. Then inflation kicked in & interest rates went up. Then there was Liz Truss.Not a chance - nothing is long-term when you're as old as me!I'm happy to take my 4-5% returns risk free.5 -
As I’m risk adverse I’ve always wondered why my FA didn’t keep more of my SIPP in cash in case of such circumstances.1
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What about the theory that he's simply an idiot?hoof_it_up_to_benty said:https://www.instagram.com/reel/DIALTQjMKma/?igsh=ZHoyMDI4eHpnYjR5
Interesting watch on how Trump is using tariffs as a political weapon... Senator Chris Murphy.2 -
I'm afraid IFA's are just like the rest of the population and cant second guess the market.LargeAddick said:As I’m risk adverse I’ve always wondered why my FA didn’t keep more of my SIPP in cash in case of such circumstances.
If you had 20% sitting in case & the market had shot up 10% you'd be questioning why you weren't fully invested.
You should be invested as per your attitude to risk. If you are totally risk adverse you shouldn't invest. From then on in it's really just a sliding scale depending on your risk attitude. A few general examples -
Cautious - 30/70 split between equities & Bonds, Property etc
Balanced - 50/50
Moderate - 65/35
Dynamic - 80/20
Adventurous - 100
Also, by the time any adviser realises what's going on it's too late, especially as all dealings are done on a forward basis. So even if you sold at 8am this morning you'd be dealing at values based on today's close. You might get lucky and the fund prices at noon.
At the end of the day invest your money to a level of risk you are comfortable with and keep a certain amount in cash / premium bonds as your buffer.2 -
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.bobmunro said:se9addick said:
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.Friend Or Defoe said:
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.2 -
When the markets dived in August, due I think to Deepseek, I decided to cash in a chunk of my pension. Typically, all the losses were reversed within the week and hindsight says I should have sat tight.
I switched out of the US at the start of the year and this week decided to sit on my hands.
I'll be very pleasantly surprised if the markets recover quickly.3 -
The US is not the economic force it once was - that much is obvious. Trump is a narcissist and a bully whose only concern is himself - the Republican Party and Congress have effectively become part of the Trump cult.redman said:
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.bobmunro said:se9addick said:
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.Friend Or Defoe said:
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.
He's a dangerous unstable character who is economically illiterate - the farcical way he's calculated tariffs based on trade deficits clearly illustrates this.
He will make the world a more unstable place and ultimately constantly appeasing him will just lead to him asking for more. Starmer knows the UK is too weak to stand up to him and you can't trust any deal he agrees to. He is only too happy to renege on agreements.
We just have to hope the damage he causes across the globe is limited. The US is no longer a reliable trading partner.
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More pain to come next week, or do people think they’ll be an upward bounce?0
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I agree. Smashing a whole load of tariffs on American products will hurt us more than it will hurt the Americans.redman said:
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.bobmunro said:se9addick said:
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.Friend Or Defoe said:
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.We need to play the game and see if there’s a deal to be done which mitigates the damage without knee jerk reactions.3 -
No one knows.Mendonca In Asdas said:More pain to come next week, or do people think they’ll be an upward bounce?3 -
He did say “think” to be fair.Covered End said:
No one knows.Mendonca In Asdas said:More pain to come next week, or do people think they’ll be an upward bounce?1 -
Thank you CE, thats the honest answer, I guess this is going to be know as the ‘Trump Dump’ and when things pick up and get going again, the Trump pump.Covered End said:
No one knows.Mendonca In Asdas said:More pain to come next week, or do people think they’ll be an upward bounce?0 -
Sponsored links:
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What game exactly? Trump systematically bullies opponents and is more than happy to renege on agreements. Wasn't it Trump who signed a free trade agreement in 2019 with Mexico and Canada?(USMCA)se9addick said:
I agree. Smashing a whole load of tariffs on American products will hurt us more than it will hurt the Americans.redman said:
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.bobmunro said:se9addick said:
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.Friend Or Defoe said:
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.We need to play the game and see if there’s a deal to be done which mitigates the damage without knee jerk reactions.1 -
Doing my small bit by avoiding buying anything from the US.hoof_it_up_to_benty said:
The US is not the economic force it once was - that much is obvious. Trump is a narcissist and a bully whose only concern is himself - the Republican Party and Congress have effectively become part of the Trump cult.redman said:
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.bobmunro said:se9addick said:
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.Friend Or Defoe said:
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.
He's a dangerous unstable character who is economically illiterate - the farcical way he's calculated tariffs based on trade deficits clearly illustrates this.
He will make the world a more unstable place and ultimately constantly appeasing him will just lead to him asking for more. Starmer knows the UK is too weak to stand up to him and you can't trust any deal he agrees to. He is only too happy to renege on agreements.
We just have to hope the damage he causes across the globe is limited. The US is no longer a reliable trading partner.7 -
I think this is the way to go, a non governmental boycott of US products makes it more difficult for Donny to respond, it's simple supply and demand. I don't knowingly buy American stuff anyway. I've not bought a Tesla and will now not be buying a lot more! Have that, you orange freak.Chaz Hill said:
Doing my small bit by avoiding buying anything from the US.hoof_it_up_to_benty said:
The US is not the economic force it once was - that much is obvious. Trump is a narcissist and a bully whose only concern is himself - the Republican Party and Congress have effectively become part of the Trump cult.redman said:
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.bobmunro said:se9addick said:
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.Friend Or Defoe said:
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.
He's a dangerous unstable character who is economically illiterate - the farcical way he's calculated tariffs based on trade deficits clearly illustrates this.
He will make the world a more unstable place and ultimately constantly appeasing him will just lead to him asking for more. Starmer knows the UK is too weak to stand up to him and you can't trust any deal he agrees to. He is only too happy to renege on agreements.
We just have to hope the damage he causes across the globe is limited. The US is no longer a reliable trading partner.5 -
Looking around my gaff the only US stuff I have is the tech stuff, basically Apple. There’s the Netflix and HBO subs I guess. Nothing else. No American food brand stuff. Just been checking out some outdoor recliner chairs, and eyeing a Canadian brand. A lot of German brands, and all the furniture is European. British bed, and hifi stuff, includes a Sonos Connect box which is the weak link. LG TV. Honestly, rhetoric aside, if you are not a fast or packaged food fan, what is it that Trump thinks we should buy?IdleHans said:
I think this is the way to go, a non governmental boycott of US products makes it more difficult for Donny to respond, it's simple supply and demand. I don't knowingly buy American stuff anyway. I've not bought a Tesla and will now not be buying a lot more! Have that, you orange freak.Chaz Hill said:
Doing my small bit by avoiding buying anything from the US.hoof_it_up_to_benty said:
The US is not the economic force it once was - that much is obvious. Trump is a narcissist and a bully whose only concern is himself - the Republican Party and Congress have effectively become part of the Trump cult.redman said:
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.bobmunro said:se9addick said:
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.Friend Or Defoe said:
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.
He's a dangerous unstable character who is economically illiterate - the farcical way he's calculated tariffs based on trade deficits clearly illustrates this.
He will make the world a more unstable place and ultimately constantly appeasing him will just lead to him asking for more. Starmer knows the UK is too weak to stand up to him and you can't trust any deal he agrees to. He is only too happy to renege on agreements.
We just have to hope the damage he causes across the globe is limited. The US is no longer a reliable trading partner.5 -
Trump likes to portray himself as a winner and a master negotiator, he thinks that’s what he’s known for. So we should give him something that he can claim to his base is a victory in exchange for the thing(s) that we want/need.hoof_it_up_to_benty said:
What game exactly? Trump systematically bullies opponents and is more than happy to renege on agreements. Wasn't it Trump who signed a free trade agreement in 2019 with Mexico and Canada?(USMCA)se9addick said:
I agree. Smashing a whole load of tariffs on American products will hurt us more than it will hurt the Americans.redman said:
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.bobmunro said:se9addick said:
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.Friend Or Defoe said:
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.We need to play the game and see if there’s a deal to be done which mitigates the damage without knee jerk reactions.I actually agree with Redman that Starmer has played the game pretty well so far, but the next steps will be tough. We should assume that, if there is a deal to be done, that it’s only temporary but may buy us time to sort out better terms with other trade partners (namely, but not exclusively, the EU).1 -
Probably being melodramatic but Monday makes me nervous. Shades of 29.0
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What happens Monday will likely be as a consequence of what happens over the weekend. China started the response to tariffs today and the markets tumbled. If, over the weekend, the EU announce their response and it's tit for tat, and others follow suit then the markets are probably only going one way. There's also the Trump response to reprisals, he could soften (very unlikely) or he could double down with 'I see your 34% China and I raise another 20%.As CE says, no one knows.It's the penguins I feel sorry for.4
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This sounds more like a rant that having a disagreement with what I said. Nevertheless have your rant if it makes you feel any better.hoof_it_up_to_benty said:
The US is not the economic force it once was - that much is obvious. Trump is a narcissist and a bully whose only concern is himself - the Republican Party and Congress have effectively become part of the Trump cult.redman said:
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.bobmunro said:se9addick said:
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.Friend Or Defoe said:
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.
He's a dangerous unstable character who is economically illiterate - the farcical way he's calculated tariffs based on trade deficits clearly illustrates this.
He will make the world a more unstable place and ultimately constantly appeasing him will just lead to him asking for more. Starmer knows the UK is too weak to stand up to him and you can't trust any deal he agrees to. He is only too happy to renege on agreements.
We just have to hope the damage he causes across the globe is limited. The US is no longer a reliable trading partner.0 -
Did the big one time contribution to private pension today. Thanks for those who provided insight. Felt like a significant moment to part ways with a fairly big sum of money that I won't be able to touch for another 20 years at least, but I think its the right move.
I'm glad I just put it in cash (for now). Would have been quite a tough one to watch had it gone in the day before the worst economic moment in half a decade.3 -
Monster trucks and maga hats! I don't actually think there's much in the way of consumer stuff, it's all tech shit which is unfortunately deeply embedded, Amazon, Google, eBay etc., all companies that don't pay enough tax. It's why Amazon invoices come from Amazon EURL, not Amazon UK limited. The digital services tax should be ramped up but be permitted to be offset against their corporate tax liability, if any. We should look much harder at the general offshoring of IP to artificially reduce CT in the UK. Starbucks, I'm looking at you. (Your coffee is shit as well.) But many companies do it, and I've worked for some. Never got my trip to the Caymans for Kelkoo though. I won't mention Lee Cooper either, though that was only Cyprus.PragueAddick said:
Looking around my gaff the only US stuff I have is the tech stuff, basically Apple. There’s the Netflix and HBO subs I guess. Nothing else. No American food brand stuff. Just been checking out some outdoor recliner chairs, and eyeing a Canadian brand. A lot of German brands, and all the furniture is European. British bed, and hifi stuff, includes a Sonos Connect box which is the weak link. LG TV. Honestly, rhetoric aside, if you are not a fast or packaged food fan, what is it that Trump thinks we should buy?IdleHans said:
I think this is the way to go, a non governmental boycott of US products makes it more difficult for Donny to respond, it's simple supply and demand. I don't knowingly buy American stuff anyway. I've not bought a Tesla and will now not be buying a lot more! Have that, you orange freak.Chaz Hill said:
Doing my small bit by avoiding buying anything from the US.hoof_it_up_to_benty said:
The US is not the economic force it once was - that much is obvious. Trump is a narcissist and a bully whose only concern is himself - the Republican Party and Congress have effectively become part of the Trump cult.redman said:
Need to be very careful in comparing what is happening now to 1828 or 1930. Don't get me wrong, there is no benefit to US in these moves. However US is much stronger relative to other countries than it was then. It will certainly hurt other countries much more. Responses need to well thought through and not knee jerk. I'm no great fan of Starmer but from a UK point of view I believe he is currently adopting the right approach. ie calm talk and little action.bobmunro said:se9addick said:
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say tariffs caused the Great Depression.Friend Or Defoe said:
Correct. The Tariff Act of 1930 was designed to reduce the effects of the depression but in fact exacerbated it because other nations (as now) retaliated with their own tariffs and US exports plummeted.
He's a dangerous unstable character who is economically illiterate - the farcical way he's calculated tariffs based on trade deficits clearly illustrates this.
He will make the world a more unstable place and ultimately constantly appeasing him will just lead to him asking for more. Starmer knows the UK is too weak to stand up to him and you can't trust any deal he agrees to. He is only too happy to renege on agreements.
We just have to hope the damage he causes across the globe is limited. The US is no longer a reliable trading partner.
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