You have to give the President some credit. He's worked very hard to become the President presiding over the biggest one-day Dow Jones fall this century. On 3 April, the DJIA fell by 9.1% - which ranks only third in the 21st century list. So, I guess we will have to anticipate more, devastating measures from the President, so that he can take the title.
In fairness, the two largest one-day Dow Jones falls have been 9.99% and 12.9%. So, President number 47 is almost at the top of the tree. Those two occasions (16 March 2020 and 12 March 2020) were under another President. President number 45, whoever he was.
In Trump's defence, those two 2020 falls were linked to the pandemic I believe, and we can't blame Trump for that (can we?).
This one is all of his own making which for me ranks it at Number 1.
Apart from the obvious issues with global finance that this has the potential to cause one of the biggest problems is everyday we are witnessing another major world leader spouting outright lies and presenting them as facts. It seems we have become a society where leaders genuinely think they can say whatever they like to suit their agenda without any fear of being called out. Just a few years ago any politician (in the free world) caught in an outright lie would have been facing the end of their career ! Now they forge a career by lying
Apart from the obvious issues with global finance that this has the potential to cause one of the biggest problems is everyday we are witnessing another major world leader spouting outright lies and presenting them as facts. It seems we have become a society where leaders genuinely think they can say whatever they like to suit their agenda without any fear of being called out. Just a few years ago any politician (in the free world) caught in an outright lie would have been facing the end of their career ! Now they forge a career by lying
In the morning I'm going to do something I've never done before, monitor S&P500 Futures index. As I understand it, (and smarter people, please tell this mug punter if I've got this right) it will give me an indication of how the wise guys on Wall Street think the market will open (in the afternoon our time). Of course it's only an index of sentiment (not fact) but TBH guessing sentiment is all I've got when forecasting in our FTSE 100 competition, and it seems to work OK. And I think that's more or less what most of you do too.
I'm thinking of the 12.00 deadline for funds pricing; I have cash that I am supposed to be feeding back into the market after re-structuring holdings in Feb. So I figure that if that Futures index looks relatively calm, the S&P 500 will open maybe around current level, so, at least for a few days any equity funds I buy (UK, European and Asian) will be at a decent price. However if that index suggests a bit of a bloodbath (say 3% or more), which some excitable Yank Tweets suggest, it will be better to stay on the sidelines, as funds may become materially cheaper in the next couple of days.
What do you think? If it's daft, please don't hesitate to say so.
Some very good questions above from @Huskaris and @Arthur_Trudgill, and equally good answer from @IdleHans, thanks for these thoughtful contributions. Overall, I suppose we have to reluctantly agree that at least Trump has forced the world to at least confront these questions. The problem is that most of the issues are far too complex for a dickhead real-estate developer to get his head around. He thinks everything works like the real estate market does. The other big thing to confront is debt, which I equally reluctantly had to concede after reading What went wrong with capitalism? (Ruchir Sharma). He argues that all major economies are doped on debt (Keynes argued that countries would put money away for a rainy day in a good year and we all stopped doing that (except possibly Norway)) Trump ignores that issue as well (and I didn't feel Sharma has the right prescriptions either, first few chapters are powerful and the final ones anti-climactic)
Anyway macro-economics is a bit above my pay grade, but Arthur Trudgill's point about wine "How can it be cheaper or better for the environment to ship wine from France to California when you can make wine there?"is something I can get my head around, and Trump cannot because he needs everything to be simple.....
According to my new (just a ) friend Claude, the distance between San Francisco and New York by road is 2,900-3,100 miles depending on route. The distance between Bordeaux and New York using established shipping lanes is 4,236 miles. So the French wine travels further but the difference is less than you might think. Then I asked him to calculate the environmental cost of the two journeys for a pallet-load of wine in bottles. Wait for it....
Napa Valley: Total emissions: 241.4 kg CO2e Bordeaux : Total emissions: 44.9 CO2e
Claude had some caveats (he's good like that) but nothing significant that detracts from the fact that the Napa Valley delivery produced 5.4 times more CO2 emissions than the Bordeaux.
The we have to consider that good US wine is very good, but my God, the prices they presume to charge. Do you recall our friend Napa Addick, ex finance guy who had set up his winery? Said he was charging $150 a bottle. I remember thinking, that's ridiculous when as a winemaker you have a track record of virtually zero compared with the French.
Now the Penguin- botherer wants to slap tariffs on the Bordeaux because it's unfair, they've been ripping us off, destroying our own industry, blah, blah. Who here would fancy trying to explain to him even this simple example of the complexities of what he's unleashed?
Thanks for the analysis, PragueAddick (and Claude). To be fair I deliberately said California because a lot of wine is made there v. the USA's east coast, but I take your points, about a) comparative advantage, and b) specific cases/"the devil is in the detail".
My general point is that tariffs will reduce consumption in the USA and most of the world, which has been increasing unchecked with globalisation, damaging the environment.
Saving the environment is not Trump's goal, but seems like a consequence of his higher tariffs.
The tariffs will start to be reverted before long a lot of demonstrations over the weekend in the USA and when the markets open tomorrow I suspect more major falls. The public there are much more linked to stocks and shares than the general public here and I’m not sure they will put up with their savings disappearing before their eyes
In the morning I'm going to do something I've never done before, monitor S&P500 Futures index. As I understand it, (and smarter people, please tell this mug punter if I've got this right) it will give me an indication of how the wise guys on Wall Street think the market will open (in the afternoon our time). Of course it's only an index of sentiment (not fact) but TBH guessing sentiment is all I've got when forecasting in our FTSE 100 competition, and it seems to work OK. And I think that's more or less what most of you do too.
I'm thinking of the 12.00 deadline for funds pricing; I have cash that I am supposed to be feeding back into the market after re-structuring holdings in Feb. So I figure that if that Futures index looks relatively calm, the S&P 500 will open maybe around current level, so, at least for a few days any equity funds I buy (UK, European and Asian) will be at a decent price. However if that index suggests a bit of a bloodbath (say 3% or more), which some excitable Yank Tweets suggest, it will be better to stay on the sidelines, as funds may become materially cheaper in the next couple of days.
What do you think? If it's daft, please don't hesitate to say so.
If you buy ETFs, the price is more or less instantaneous.
It's one of the reasons I stopped buying old style funds, as it was not straightforward working out what price I was buying or selling at.
The tariffs will start to be reverted before long a lot of demonstrations over the weekend in the USA and when the markets open tomorrow I suspect more major falls. The public there are much more linked to stocks and shares than the general public here and I’m not sure they will put up with their savings disappearing before their eyes
Revised quicker than you may think! From the BBC News website quoting the US Commerce Secretary:
Challenged about the turmoil, Lutnick told CBS News on Sunday that the
10% "baseline" tariff on all imports, which came into effect a day
earlier, will definitely "stay in place for days and weeks".
Days and weeks? Well that aged well - they could be gone by Tuesday!
@PragueAddick SP futures open at 23.00 UK time (18.00 ET) on Sunday evening. Only thing trading at moment is crypto and suggests could be a market bloodbath with BTC down 5% and ETH 10%. In effect they are only things to sell at moment and margin calls to be met as Asia wakes up. It is always wider media nonsense when they say market sells off x% in first minutes of trade at the cash open. In effect the futures will have been trading for 15 hours by then and dictate where the open is.
I was going to invest in a cash ISA this week. However, as things stand, I think I'll wait until things settle a bit, hopefully fairly soon, and invest in a stocks and shares ISA instead for 2025/6. Possibly madness but must be worth a punt. Thoughts?
I was going to invest in a cash ISA this week. However, as things stand, I think I'll wait until things settle a bit, hopefully fairly soon, and invest in a stocks and shares ISA instead for 2025/6. Possibly madness but must be worth a punt. Thoughts?
As long as Trump is in charge it will just continue to be chaos. Hard to gurss his actions as they're not built on logic.
I think the world would have been better off with an incoherent & dementia driven Mr Bidden than Mr Trump.
Nobody really has a clue how this will pan out.
Indeed. And markets like certainty. Most of the selling is down to panic about the unknown. I'm pretty sure things will calm down over the next day or 2 and then start to righten themselves.
Just had my first email from a client panicking & asking me what to do. At 08.04.
I was going to invest in a cash ISA this week. However, as things stand, I think I'll wait until things settle a bit, hopefully fairly soon, and invest in a stocks and shares ISA instead for 2025/6. Possibly madness but must be worth a punt. Thoughts?
My thoughts would be do your cash ISA, at least get some tax free interest. You can always transfer to an S&S when you think the time is right if you haven't locked up your money. Not expecting this to be any time soon though unless America comes to it's senses or improves its marksmanship.
I think the world would have been better off with an incoherent & dementia driven Mr Bidden than Mr Trump.
Nobody really has a clue how this will pan out.
Indeed. And markets like certainty. Most of the selling is down to panic about the unknown. I'm pretty sure things will calm down over the next day or 2 and then start to righten themselves.
Just had my first email from a client panicking & asking me what to do. At 08.04.
The panic will now doubt gather pace in the short term but I defy anyone to predict Trump's actions. There will be no certainty with Trump at the helm.
S&P500 is Currently 2.5% lower than this time last year.
My £4k LISA allowance is due in on Wednesday. 🤞🏼Probably shot too early. The rest of this year's allowance is going into a cash ISA!
Was able to view my pension yesterday after a few days of "page not available at the moment". Looks like an extra year of work for me! 🥲
Should think most ,if not all pension funds are in the same boat. I'm in a slightly better boat with many years in a final salary fund. Not so good for the company having to shore it up! I do have a stock market linked pension fund. My play pot. And that has taken a real sting this week. Hopefully those close to retirement had a fund that had moved their asset to a less volatile one the closer they get to retirement.
S&P500 is Currently 2.5% lower than this time last year.
My £4k LISA allowance is due in on Wednesday. 🤞🏼Probably shot too early. The rest of this year's allowance is going into a cash ISA!
Was able to view my pension yesterday after a few days of "page not available at the moment". Looks like an extra year of work for me! 🥲
Should think most ,if not all pension funds are in the same boat. I'm in a slightly better boat with many years in a final salary fund. Not so good for the company having to shore it up! I do have a stock market linked pension fund. My play pot. And that has taken a real sting this week. Hopefully those close to retirement had a fund that had moved their asset to a less volatile one the closer they get to retirement.
Nobody was predicting a trade war with the US - we just have to hope things pick up. My pension has taken a big hit...
I think the world would have been better off with an incoherent & dementia driven Mr Bidden than Mr Trump.
Nobody really has a clue how this will pan out.
Indeed. And markets like certainty. Most of the selling is down to panic about the unknown. I'm pretty sure things will calm down over the next day or 2 and then start to righten themselves.
Just had my first email from a client panicking & asking me what to do. At 08.04.
Many would like things to "calm down over the next day or 2" but the question is what's the bottom of this fall? When it comes to the S&P is it 3,000 (ouch!), 4,000 or perhaps 4,500?
Every day sees a 5% drop so how many days? We're in similar territory to the 2008 crash and the start of Covid, but this time it's all down to one man's obsession with tariffs and trade deficits.
🇺🇸 is still a democracy and pressure from billionaires via senators etc will be piling up on Trump. They will be toast in the mid-terms unless they get a grip!
I was going to invest in a cash ISA this week. However, as things stand, I think I'll wait until things settle a bit, hopefully fairly soon, and invest in a stocks and shares ISA instead for 2025/6. Possibly madness but must be worth a punt. Thoughts?
Can you put it in a flexible cash ISA then you can trickle it into a S&S ISA monthly? I'm still going to pay into a S&S ISA monthly although have reduced it to £800 a month and have already put £10k into a Cash ISA. I'm still a firm believer of just investing every month regardless, done me OK so far through the up's and downs although a little more cautious as I age.
Same for my company pension where I'll just continue to invest monthly, My SIPP I use to minimise my tax bill on my tax return, will likely just put that in as cash and leave for now (it's a lot smaller amount than my works pension per month!).
I think the world would have been better off with an incoherent & dementia driven Mr Bidden than Mr Trump.
Nobody really has a clue how this will pan out.
Indeed. And markets like certainty. Most of the selling is down to panic about the unknown. I'm pretty sure things will calm down over the next day or 2 and then start to righten themselves.
Just had my first email from a client panicking & asking me what to do. At 08.04.
Many would like things to "calm down over the next day or 2" but the question is what's the bottom of this fall? When it comes to the S&P is it 3,000 (ouch!), 4,000 or perhaps 4,500?
Every day sees a 5% drop so how many days? We're in similar territory to the 2008 crash and the start of Covid, but this time it's all down to one man's obsession with tariffs and trade deficits.
🇺🇸 is still a democracy and pressure from billionaires via senators etc will be piling up on Trump. They will be toast in the mid-terms unless they get a grip!
I still can't help but think he's shorting the markets on purpose. Take them down 25%, invest heavily and bring them back up by relenting on the tariffs. Easy money........
I think the world would have been better off with an incoherent & dementia driven Mr Bidden than Mr Trump.
Nobody really has a clue how this will pan out.
Indeed. And markets like certainty. Most of the selling is down to panic about the unknown. I'm pretty sure things will calm down over the next day or 2 and then start to righten themselves.
Just had my first email from a client panicking & asking me what to do. At 08.04.
Many would like things to "calm down over the next day or 2" but the question is what's the bottom of this fall? When it comes to the S&P is it 3,000 (ouch!), 4,000 or perhaps 4,500?
Every day sees a 5% drop so how many days? We're in similar territory to the 2008 crash and the start of Covid, but this time it's all down to one man's obsession with tariffs and trade deficits.
🇺🇸 is still a democracy and pressure from billionaires via senators etc will be piling up on Trump. They will be toast in the mid-terms unless they get a grip!
I still can't help but think he's shorting the markets on purpose. Take them down 25%, invest heavily and bring them back up by relenting on the tariffs. Easy money........
Comments
In the morning I'm going to do something I've never done before, monitor S&P500 Futures index. As I understand it, (and smarter people, please tell this mug punter if I've got this right) it will give me an indication of how the wise guys on Wall Street think the market will open (in the afternoon our time). Of course it's only an index of sentiment (not fact) but TBH guessing sentiment is all I've got when forecasting in our FTSE 100 competition, and it seems to work OK. And I think that's more or less what most of you do too.
I'm thinking of the 12.00 deadline for funds pricing; I have cash that I am supposed to be feeding back into the market after re-structuring holdings in Feb. So I figure that if that Futures index looks relatively calm, the S&P 500 will open maybe around current level, so, at least for a few days any equity funds I buy (UK, European and Asian) will be at a decent price. However if that index suggests a bit of a bloodbath (say 3% or more), which some excitable Yank Tweets suggest, it will be better to stay on the sidelines, as funds may become materially cheaper in the next couple of days.
What do you think? If it's daft, please don't hesitate to say so.
My general point is that tariffs will reduce consumption in the USA and most of the world, which has been increasing unchecked with globalisation, damaging the environment.
Saving the environment is not Trump's goal, but seems like a consequence of his higher tariffs.
It's one of the reasons I stopped buying old style funds, as it was not straightforward working out what price I was buying or selling at.
Only thing trading at moment is crypto and suggests could be a market bloodbath with BTC down 5% and ETH 10%. In effect they are only things to sell at moment and margin calls to be met as Asia wakes up.
It is always wider media nonsense when they say market sells off x% in first minutes of trade at the cash open. In effect the futures will have been trading for 15 hours by then and dictate where the open is.
Just had my first email from a client panicking & asking me what to do. At 08.04.
My £4k LISA allowance is due in on Wednesday. 🤞🏼Probably shot too early. The rest of this year's allowance is going into a cash ISA!
Was able to view my pension yesterday after a few days of "page not available at the moment". Looks like an extra year of work for me! 🥲
I'm in a slightly better boat with many years in a final salary fund. Not so good for the company having to shore it up!
I do have a stock market linked pension fund. My play pot. And that has taken a real sting this week.
Hopefully those close to retirement had a fund that had moved their asset to a less volatile one the closer they get to retirement.
Every day sees a 5% drop so how many days? We're in similar territory to the 2008 crash and the start of Covid, but this time it's all down to one man's obsession with tariffs and trade deficits.
🇺🇸 is still a democracy and pressure from billionaires via senators etc will be piling up on Trump. They will be toast in the mid-terms unless they get a grip!