Here is a positive sign: Unilever before the crash was riding high at 55.16. Last week lowest point was 38.42. Now trading at 44.15, up 15% from that low.
Here's a positive. China have recorded no new cases in the last 24 hours ! As the good news starts to filter through the markets will start to recover. (I accept they won't recover to the high levels in the next 12 months).
Golfie: I am thinking of putting my spare £10k cash back in my emptied Nutmeg Stocks & Shares ISA. Presumably this is a good time to do that? I am thinking of a risk level 8/10 to maximise potential growth but, of course, also worried about potential crashes & company failures. Any thoughts?
Golfie knows a hundred times better than me on this sort of stuff- happy to admit that - but surely this is not the time to put a large slug of money into the market?
As I write, the FTSE has just gone through the 5000 barrier again. Take your pick at the next support level. 4500? 3500? 2750? Nobody knows. But I would hazard a guess that If London does go into absolute lockdown, there will be armegedon on the markets.
Surely there will be better opportunities to invest your money over the coming weeks?
Golfie: I am thinking of putting my spare £10k cash back in my emptied Nutmeg Stocks & Shares ISA. Presumably this is a good time to do that? I am thinking of a risk level 8/10 to maximise potential growth but, of course, also worried about potential crashes & company failures. Any thoughts?
Golfie knows a hundred times better than me on this sort of stuff- happy to admit that - but surely this is not the time to put a large slug of money into the market?
As I write, the FTSE has just gone through the 5000 barrier again. Take your pick at the next support level. 4500? 3500? 2750? Nobody knows. But I would hazard a guess that If London does go into absolute lockdown, there will be armegedon on the markets.
Surely there will be better opportunities to invest your money over the coming weeks?
Yes, that's kinda where I am at; thinking that the market could dive when the virus truly takes hold in the coming days/weeks & worried that investing now might be disastrous on an 8/10 risk basis. Tricky. Anyone got a crystal ball I can borrow?
Golfie: I am thinking of putting my spare £10k cash back in my emptied Nutmeg Stocks & Shares ISA. Presumably this is a good time to do that? I am thinking of a risk level 8/10 to maximise potential growth but, of course, also worried about potential crashes & company failures. Any thoughts?
Never a bad time to invest money when world stock markets are all down 30%. As long as you dont need it back again within the next 12-18 months. I can't say we are at the bottom but long term I can't see too much risk.
If you think you want to take a 8/10 risk then a global managed fund seems like a good bet. Baillie Gifford, Royal London or Liontrust have some decent ones.
Golfie: I am thinking of putting my spare £10k cash back in my emptied Nutmeg Stocks & Shares ISA. Presumably this is a good time to do that? I am thinking of a risk level 8/10 to maximise potential growth but, of course, also worried about potential crashes & company failures. Any thoughts?
Golfie knows a hundred times better than me on this sort of stuff- happy to admit that - but surely this is not the time to put a large slug of money into the market?
As I write, the FTSE has just gone through the 5000 barrier again. Take your pick at the next support level. 4500? 3500? 2750? Nobody knows. But I would hazard a guess that If London does go into absolute lockdown, there will be armegedon on the markets.
Surely there will be better opportunities to invest your money over the coming weeks?
When the markets rebound from the bottom, they usually pick up massively very quickly. Ok not to where they were, but if they say bottom out at 4000 it may only be for one day. I would fully expect a couple of large rebounds at say 10% on consecutive days. So if your money isn't immediately available it's almost impossible to pick the bottom.
Hi, all. I read this thread with interest (Get it?).
I've invested in Green / Ecology funds (as an ISA) for some while. I have never had reason to withdraw my funds, but I got the jitters at the weekend and exited yesterday. Recent losses were reduced (a bit) from an 'Up' at yesterday's Noon pricing point. Cash Is King, they say...but with interest rates being as they are, it's a Tres Petit Roi. I intend to keep watch and, at some stage, to reinvest.
I appreciate that some recommend 'Staying in during the dark', but this crisis is global and the light may not return for some time. My take on things would appear to be similar to that of @Fortune 82nd Minute and @hoof_it_up_to_benty
Those who know me will know that I am no fan of Trump. I agree with much that this chap has to say.
Sorry mate, but you've effectively sold at the bottom of the market (or close to it) and are now waiting for it to go up before reinvesting. You do know you are supposed to buy low & sell high, not sell low & buy high.
I realise no-one can say where the top or bottom of the market is.........but you have just crystallised your losses, which based on January's FTSE level of c7500 is about a 33% drop.
Agreed, without knowing the fund details one can't say for sure, but on the face of it you've done precisely the wrong thing. Unless of course you need all the funds in the next year, in which case unfortunately, it would likely have been better to cash out a month ago.
Generally speaking now is the time to buy, not sell.
NB, As far as I'm aware Donald Trump did not cause Covid 19.
My wife used to work for a banks Unit Trust division some years back, it was so common that people would panic and sell when the market went down, wait until it went back up and reinvest. Bonkers.
You say that but it’s better to be buying in a bull market that’s going up than trying to bottom pick in a bear market that isn’t . There’ll be plenty who would have sold from 7.5k to 6k on the ftse and are laughing now it’s sub 5k how long before it gets back to 6k and is a bull market when they can get back in . Even selling at 5k and re entering at 6k when everything is calmer may be a better play than buying at 6k , 5.5k and 5k when potentially the purchasers gonna feel the pinch when it’s 4.5k or 4k . Deep , deep pockets required to play the long game and obviously there’s more than one way to skin a cat . (obviously using ftse prices as an example of how batshit crazy the markets can be )
My point was; said investor puts in £10k, see's it drop to £8k and draws out. Then when the market is back up to where it was before puts back in the £8k. So at that point they have £8k, if they'd have just left it probably be over £10k.
None of us know where the bottom is, but i'll keep trickling in safe in the knowledge that i'm buying 30% more for my cash than I would have 6 weeks ago.
Of course all of this should be as part of a balanced portfolio, whether thats gold, property, cash, International, FTSE 100/250, bonds, gilts and dare I say premium bonds!
Hi, all. I read this thread with interest (Get it?).
I've invested in Green / Ecology funds (as an ISA) for some while. I have never had reason to withdraw my funds, but I got the jitters at the weekend and exited yesterday. Recent losses were reduced (a bit) from an 'Up' at yesterday's Noon pricing point. Cash Is King, they say...but with interest rates being as they are, it's a Tres Petit Roi. I intend to keep watch and, at some stage, to reinvest.
I appreciate that some recommend 'Staying in during the dark', but this crisis is global and the light may not return for some time. My take on things would appear to be similar to that of @Fortune 82nd Minute and @hoof_it_up_to_benty
Those who know me will know that I am no fan of Trump. I agree with much that this chap has to say.
Sorry mate, but you've effectively sold at the bottom of the market (or close to it) and are now waiting for it to go up before reinvesting. You do know you are supposed to buy low & sell high, not sell low & buy high.
I realise no-one can say where the top or bottom of the market is.........but you have just crystallised your losses, which based on January's FTSE level of c7500 is about a 33% drop.
Agreed, without knowing the fund details one can't say for sure, but on the face of it you've done precisely the wrong thing. Unless of course you need all the funds in the next year, in which case unfortunately, it would likely have been better to cash out a month ago.
Generally speaking now is the time to buy, not sell.
NB, As far as I'm aware Donald Trump did not cause Covid 19.
My wife used to work for a banks Unit Trust division some years back, it was so common that people would panic and sell when the market went down, wait until it went back up and reinvest. Bonkers.
You say that but it’s better to be buying in a bull market that’s going up than trying to bottom pick in a bear market that isn’t . There’ll be plenty who would have sold from 7.5k to 6k on the ftse and are laughing now it’s sub 5k how long before it gets back to 6k and is a bull market when they can get back in . Even selling at 5k and re entering at 6k when everything is calmer may be a better play than buying at 6k , 5.5k and 5k when potentially the purchasers gonna feel the pinch when it’s 4.5k or 4k . Deep , deep pockets required to play the long game and obviously there’s more than one way to skin a cat . (obviously using ftse prices as an example of how batshit crazy the markets can be )
That's an interesting post, and I know you have professional experience in markets that most of us don't have.
The problem for mug punters in following the strategy you outlined there is that by the time it became clear (to us) how serious this is going to be for markets, FTSE was already much nearer 6000 than 7500!!. Before then, very few were forecasting anything that could take us to 5000. It is a real Black Swan, isn't it?
I did at least heed warnings that the bull market faced a correction, so I haven't been feeding it for a year or so, but I think the kind of people you are talking about above are really close to markets, - and also able to deal in real time, unlike us mugs.
It’s impossible and the whippyness of markets can give fake signals as to when to get in /out . I think having a number where you want to quit and rebuy or stop back in may help but as you say if you’re trading the market live that’s a lot easier and you can get chopped up doing that in the markets . I leave my stuff with financial adviser or whatever his title is and whenever he give it the big one saying you made 20% last year I said any wally can make in a rising market its when things go wrong that you earn your corn . last note I got was down 12.3%
On a positive note, anyone have any winners from this mess?
I don't really, but some have been less worse than others!
Microsoft and Amazon are holding up well and I think they will both do well on the rebound. I haven't looked at the OEMs but suspect there will be even more data centres and switches bought after this. I'm holding on to BRK - Buffet has a lot of cash on the sidelines that I'm sure he will put to good use better than I can. All these are benefiting from the dollar strength, for however long that lasts.
Zoom has done well but I was late to that, so bought a local company, Gamma, which provides virtual PBXs that enable home working. A lot of the (SME) companies that my clients invest in choose it for their telephony. They just had some good results but the stock is still weaker than it was. Small company, small bet.
Reckitt Benkiser has done okay. HSBC is back on the way up, which maybe gives some clues as to what happens when the rest of the world follows Asia. National Grid has held up well and I reckon will carry on rising in a low interest rate world - also earns dollars.
HILS has been okay until today - it builds motorway infrastructure, for example. Well-run company.
HICL is a decent infrastructure fund - again, should be strong in a low interest rate world, some level of protection and government investment in infrastructure.
IG is making money in this market but dropped today after what I thought were good results.
BIOG is a good IT - has dropped but I had a rare win of selling high and buying back in lower (so far!) - bio companies always benefits from falling rates due to their huge R&D debt, many earn dollars and - presumably - one of these buggers will find the vaccine.
Things that re getting hit that seem overdone to me are:
MONY - surely more people will be on there comparing and trying to save money??
EXPN - people are still going to need to use their identity checking and credit services - there will be less demand from corporate clients if they go bust but the shares have fallen a lot.
BBOX - the warehousing of on-line delivery - surely only going to get bigger after this and recent results were strong.
LTI/FGT, SSON, AIIF and BRFI all taking a pounding and probably too early to go back in on them but quality managers there.
The rest of my holdings are too embarrassing to put up here. Hopefully they will dead cat bounce harder than the others!
No recommendations - I wouldn't be buying significantly until we have that last lurch down - but thought it was worth a discussion.
There seems to be a lot of focus on the FTSE100 here - as an index it certainly has some appeal given GBP weakness, dividend yield (to the extent cuts aren't looming) and unchallenging valuation (albeit based on a virtually unknown near-term earnings picture).
However it has a 25% weighting to banks and oil companies, both of which would appear to be significantly damaged now from interest cuts and a wave of bad debts coming in the case of the former, and the oil price collapse for the latter.
Personally if I added to UK equities, I'd target the more domestically-oriented FTSE250 which has underperformed the FTSE 100 and will in my view be more likely to benefit from what will hopefully be a coiled spring of pent-up domestic consumer demand once this crisis passes.
pension pot down 20% since 1st march, not as bad as I feared to be honest.
Surely it's all relative as it will bounce straight back up when this all passes and things recover?
Good luck with that idea. Oh yes of course, put your money in now and this time next year you will have made 20/30/40/50% . If it was that simple we would all be millionaires. When this is all over markets will stop falling and start to go the other way. That recovery could see a significant jump in the early days. But, LargeAddicks pension pot could take many years to get back to where it was a month ago. Although he appears to be lucky, as a 20% drop is pretty low compared to others.
pension pot down 20% since 1st march, not as bad as I feared to be honest.
Surely it's all relative as it will bounce straight back up when this all passes and things recover?
Good luck with that idea. Oh yes of course, put your money in now and this time next year you will have made 20/30/40/50% . If it was that simple we would all be millionaires. When this is all over markets will stop falling and start to go the other way. That recovery could see a significant jump in the early days. But, LargeAddicks pension pot could take many years to get back to where it was a month ago. Although he appears to be lucky, as a 20% drop is pretty low compared to others.
Its pretty low compared to others as he took advice & is invested in a range of assets. I also believe he went for a low-medium risk portfolio & so is probably only 50-60% invested in equities.
Golfie: I am thinking of putting my spare £10k cash back in my emptied Nutmeg Stocks & Shares ISA. Presumably this is a good time to do that? I am thinking of a risk level 8/10 to maximise potential growth but, of course, also worried about potential crashes & company failures. Any thoughts?
Never a bad time to invest money when world stock markets are all down 30%. As long as you dont need it back again within the next 12-18 months. I can't say we are at the bottom but long term I can't see too much risk.
If you think you want to take a 8/10 risk then a global managed fund seems like a good bet. Baillie Gifford, Royal London or Liontrust have some decent ones.
Thanks Golfie; much appreciated words
If and when a lockdown is announced I imagine the markets will fall further. Probably best to wait and see what happens in the next couple of weeks in my opinion, recovery takes longer than the fall so the opportunity to buy isn't going away.
If you're going to stock pick though - looking at retailer shelves - companies like Unilever must be doing alright.
Golfie: I am thinking of putting my spare £10k cash back in my emptied Nutmeg Stocks & Shares ISA. Presumably this is a good time to do that? I am thinking of a risk level 8/10 to maximise potential growth but, of course, also worried about potential crashes & company failures. Any thoughts?
Never a bad time to invest money when world stock markets are all down 30%. As long as you dont need it back again within the next 12-18 months. I can't say we are at the bottom but long term I can't see too much risk.
If you think you want to take a 8/10 risk then a global managed fund seems like a good bet. Baillie Gifford, Royal London or Liontrust have some decent ones.
Thanks Golfie; much appreciated words
If and when a lockdown is announced I imagine the markets will fall further. Probably best to wait and see what happens in the next couple of weeks in my opinion, recovery takes longer than the fall so the opportunity to buy isn't going away.
If you're going to stock pick though - looking at retailer shelves - companies like Unilever must be doing alright.
Yes, people are buying anything and everything, but surely we will only eat and utilise products at the same rate (maybe extra hand wash). So we are all massively stocked up. So I would expect sales to bomb post virus, whilst people use the mountains of stuff stock piled at home. So peak now may be slump later.
When you think about it, it makes little sense that a pension fund can dive in a matter of days/weeks but take many months/years to recover. Logically, if market values return back up towards where they were within, say, a year, then pension fund values should also improve similarly quickly as nothing else has really changed in terms of the call on pensions in the interim period. If anything, the increased death rate of over 70's due to COVID-70 (again logically) will reduce the payouts from pension funds thus leaving more in the 'pot'. *sits back and waits for the 'don't talk so much rubbish' comments*
Whilst markets are at massive lows vs the previous 5 year bull market, I personally can't see enough positive sentiment emanating in the next 2 weeks to back buying at these levels right now. The only thing driving that activity is blind faith in the markets always bouncing back. With the new tax year just over a couple of weeks away, surely worth holding back, seeing what the next 14 days bring news-wise and if you're lucky enough to have a bit of cash sitting there, then go back in and make the most of the tax-free ISA allowance for the new year.
If you take Italy as a guide, UK covid death rates are only going to rise exponentially and those sort of headlines with no imminent closure to the spread occurring will lead to further falls in my opinion. Think it's been said already, undoubtedly buying opportunities are there but have a bit of patience with it. Back the fundamental reasons in investing, don't just act on the assumption that this will pass and markets rebound and trade on fomo.
Whilst markets are at massive lows vs the previous 5 year bull market, I personally can't see enough positive sentiment emanating in the next 2 weeks to back buying at these levels right now. The only thing driving that activity is blind faith in the markets always bouncing back. With the new tax year just over a couple of weeks away, surely worth holding back, seeing what the next 14 days bring news-wise and if you're lucky enough to have a bit of cash sitting there, then go back in and make the most of the tax-free ISA allowance for the new year.
If you take Italy as a guide, UK covid death rates are only going to rise exponentially and those sort of headlines with no imminent closure to the spread occurring will lead to further falls in my opinion. Think it's been said already, undoubtedly buying opportunities are there but have a bit of patience with it. Back the fundamental reasons in investing, don't just act on the assumption that this will pass and markets rebound and trade on fomo.
FWIW I agree with your reading of the current situation.
But if anyone does have a little cash spare and haven't used up their ISA allowance this year, surely the thing to do is put it in a Cash ISA now and then transfer it to a Stocks and shares ISA at a later date? Otherwise the ISA allowance gets lost.
Historically at times like this there will be a number of days when the market has a good rise, with traders hoping to draw back in a few mug punters who think the tide has turned.
Those days will likely be followed by another huge fall which will completely wipe out those rises. In fact, surely we're waiting for the final huge sell-off when all seems completely lost at the moment? How far away is that - days, weeks , months? Who knows. But I'm sure it's coming.
Golfie: I am thinking of putting my spare £10k cash back in my emptied Nutmeg Stocks & Shares ISA. Presumably this is a good time to do that? I am thinking of a risk level 8/10 to maximise potential growth but, of course, also worried about potential crashes & company failures. Any thoughts?
Never a bad time to invest money when world stock markets are all down 30%. As long as you dont need it back again within the next 12-18 months. I can't say we are at the bottom but long term I can't see too much risk.
If you think you want to take a 8/10 risk then a global managed fund seems like a good bet. Baillie Gifford, Royal London or Liontrust have some decent ones.
Thanks Golfie; much appreciated words
If and when a lockdown is announced I imagine the markets will fall further. Probably best to wait and see what happens in the next couple of weeks in my opinion, recovery takes longer than the fall so the opportunity to buy isn't going away.
If you're going to stock pick though - looking at retailer shelves - companies like Unilever must be doing alright.
Yes, people are buying anything and everything, but surely we will only eat and utilise products at the same rate (maybe extra hand wash). So we are all massively stocked up. So I would expect sales to bomb post virus, whilst people use the mountains of stuff stock piled at home. So peak now may be slump later.
Maybe but home consumption will also go up and there's generally different suppliers for that than B2B which people would consume when at work etc.
FWIW I agree with your reading of the current situation.
But if anyone does have a little cash spare and haven't used up their ISA allowance this year, surely the thing to do is put it in a Cash ISA now and then transfer it to a Stocks and shares ISA at a later date? Otherwise the ISA allowance gets lost.
Yeah, you are right in terms of the most tax efficient way to manage your cash - I was speaking purely from the viewpoint of a more thoughtful trading strategy with the opportunity to use the ISA allowance almost as an excuse to not pull the trigger and stop any rash decision making.
As an aside, I'm not in financial management, but I do work as one of those kiddy traders in the city (!!). I do find some elements of what's been said a bit condescending, but equally completely agree with frustrations and that some of the market moves (particularly on an individual stock basis) have been massively over baked. Out of interest, if these moves were occurring across say a 6month time frame as news dripped through and the severity of the situation increased, would you be more understanding to them?
It's been mentioned before that the rise in electronic trading will lead to such huge swings. You will have lots of systematic funds out there setup to trade as certain trigger points are hit. Moves will happen far quicker and the herd mentality means more jump on the bandwagon and such large index moves on a daily basis will just become the norm now once a pattern is established. I have worked at companies both on the buy and sell side and apart from perhaps some cowboy brokers just milking comms from transactions and the vol traders looking to gain, my personal opinion is not that traders are necessarily losing their bottle or wanting to sell, it's more that the business models demand that they do, in turn driving prices down and exaggerating the sell off.
If you are on the buyside (asset mgmt, wealth mgmt etc), your customers are relying on you to be viewed as being proactive and 'doing something' in response to this news. You're hardly going to be buying up stock now as a PM, so your only option is to sell and trim your portfolio. Companies will hold millions in names that they want to offload....it's going to move the stock down. You cited you held Woodford funds, it is exactly that same principle in a name falling in value as your holdings are so large. Similarly, as has been mentioned by some users above, INDIVIDUALS lose their bottle and want to sell out of their ISAs/investments. Traders are executing on behalf of the clients, so it's not as if they are making the choice to sell sell sell.
Similarly, on the sellside (investment banks) you are looking to do business and help facilitate the buyside trades. They will sell on behalf of these firms as you have better access to liquidity and other players in the market. The point I'm making, prop trading is near extinct now at large banks. Traders aren't able to take punts or make too many investment decisions like they once would. If anyone could be labelled as losing their nerve, it would be more the fund managers and general individual investors. People are indoctrinated now to believe stock markets only go up and the second they go down, people can't get to grips with this. I have seen a hell of a lot of client selling driving moves across the last fortnight. It is a tough environment for anyone making investment decisions right now. The moves may seem crazy, but I think this is a result of the market dynamics that have been created over the last decade or so.
Comments
China have recorded no new cases in the last 24 hours !
As the good news starts to filter through the markets will start to recover.
(I accept they won't recover to the high levels in the next 12 months).
As I write, the FTSE has just gone through the 5000 barrier again. Take your pick at the next support level. 4500? 3500? 2750? Nobody knows. But I would hazard a guess that If London does go into absolute lockdown, there will be armegedon on the markets.
Surely there will be better opportunities to invest your money over the coming weeks?
Thanks Golfie; much appreciated words
Ok not to where they were, but if they say bottom out at 4000 it may only be for one day.
I would fully expect a couple of large rebounds at say 10% on consecutive days.
So if your money isn't immediately available it's almost impossible to pick the bottom.
None of us know where the bottom is, but i'll keep trickling in safe in the knowledge that i'm buying 30% more for my cash than I would have 6 weeks ago.
Of course all of this should be as part of a balanced portfolio, whether thats gold, property, cash, International, FTSE 100/250, bonds, gilts and dare I say premium bonds!
I think having a number where you want to quit and rebuy or stop back in may help but as you say if you’re trading the market live that’s a lot easier and you can get chopped up doing that in the markets .
I leave my stuff with financial adviser or whatever his title is and whenever he give it the big one saying you made 20% last year I said any wally can make in a rising market its when things go wrong that you earn your corn .
last note I got was down 12.3%
I don't really, but some have been less worse than others!
Microsoft and Amazon are holding up well and I think they will both do well on the rebound. I haven't looked at the OEMs but suspect there will be even more data centres and switches bought after this. I'm holding on to BRK - Buffet has a lot of cash on the sidelines that I'm sure he will put to good use better than I can. All these are benefiting from the dollar strength, for however long that lasts.
Zoom has done well but I was late to that, so bought a local company, Gamma, which provides virtual PBXs that enable home working. A lot of the (SME) companies that my clients invest in choose it for their telephony. They just had some good results but the stock is still weaker than it was. Small company, small bet.
Reckitt Benkiser has done okay. HSBC is back on the way up, which maybe gives some clues as to what happens when the rest of the world follows Asia. National Grid has held up well and I reckon will carry on rising in a low interest rate world - also earns dollars.
HILS has been okay until today - it builds motorway infrastructure, for example. Well-run company.
HICL is a decent infrastructure fund - again, should be strong in a low interest rate world, some level of protection and government investment in infrastructure.
IG is making money in this market but dropped today after what I thought were good results.
BIOG is a good IT - has dropped but I had a rare win of selling high and buying back in lower (so far!) - bio companies always benefits from falling rates due to their huge R&D debt, many earn dollars and - presumably - one of these buggers will find the vaccine.
Things that re getting hit that seem overdone to me are:
MONY - surely more people will be on there comparing and trying to save money??
EXPN - people are still going to need to use their identity checking and credit services - there will be less demand from corporate clients if they go bust but the shares have fallen a lot.
BBOX - the warehousing of on-line delivery - surely only going to get bigger after this and recent results were strong.
LTI/FGT, SSON, AIIF and BRFI all taking a pounding and probably too early to go back in on them but quality managers there.
The rest of my holdings are too embarrassing to put up here. Hopefully they will dead cat bounce harder than the others!
No recommendations - I wouldn't be buying significantly until we have that last lurch down - but thought it was worth a discussion.
Surely it's all relative as it will bounce straight back up when this all passes and things recover?
There seems to be a lot of focus on the FTSE100 here - as an index it certainly has some appeal given GBP weakness, dividend yield (to the extent cuts aren't looming) and unchallenging valuation (albeit based on a virtually unknown near-term earnings picture).
However it has a 25% weighting to banks and oil companies, both of which would appear to be significantly damaged now from interest cuts and a wave of bad debts coming in the case of the former, and the oil price collapse for the latter.
Personally if I added to UK equities, I'd target the more domestically-oriented FTSE250 which has underperformed the FTSE 100 and will in my view be more likely to benefit from what will hopefully be a coiled spring of pent-up domestic consumer demand once this crisis passes.
If and when a lockdown is announced I imagine the markets will fall further. Probably best to wait and see what happens in the next couple of weeks in my opinion, recovery takes longer than the fall so the opportunity to buy isn't going away.
If you're going to stock pick though - looking at retailer shelves - companies like Unilever must be doing alright.
If you take Italy as a guide, UK covid death rates are only going to rise exponentially and those sort of headlines with no imminent closure to the spread occurring will lead to further falls in my opinion. Think it's been said already, undoubtedly buying opportunities are there but have a bit of patience with it. Back the fundamental reasons in investing, don't just act on the assumption that this will pass and markets rebound and trade on fomo.
FTSE250 up 6.2%
But if anyone does have a little cash spare and haven't used up their ISA allowance this year, surely the thing to do is put it in a Cash ISA now and then transfer it to a Stocks and shares ISA at a later date? Otherwise the ISA allowance gets lost.
Historically at times like this there will be a number of days when the market has a good rise, with traders hoping to draw back in a few mug punters who think the tide has turned.
Those days will likely be followed by another huge fall which will completely wipe out those rises. In fact, surely we're waiting for the final huge sell-off when all seems completely lost at the moment? How far away is that - days, weeks , months? Who knows. But I'm sure it's coming.
As an aside, I'm not in financial management, but I do work as one of those kiddy traders in the city (!!). I do find some elements of what's been said a bit condescending, but equally completely agree with frustrations and that some of the market moves (particularly on an individual stock basis) have been massively over baked. Out of interest, if these moves were occurring across say a 6month time frame as news dripped through and the severity of the situation increased, would you be more understanding to them?
It's been mentioned before that the rise in electronic trading will lead to such huge swings. You will have lots of systematic funds out there setup to trade as certain trigger points are hit. Moves will happen far quicker and the herd mentality means more jump on the bandwagon and such large index moves on a daily basis will just become the norm now once a pattern is established. I have worked at companies both on the buy and sell side and apart from perhaps some cowboy brokers just milking comms from transactions and the vol traders looking to gain, my personal opinion is not that traders are necessarily losing their bottle or wanting to sell, it's more that the business models demand that they do, in turn driving prices down and exaggerating the sell off.
If you are on the buyside (asset mgmt, wealth mgmt etc), your customers are relying on you to be viewed as being proactive and 'doing something' in response to this news. You're hardly going to be buying up stock now as a PM, so your only option is to sell and trim your portfolio. Companies will hold millions in names that they want to offload....it's going to move the stock down. You cited you held Woodford funds, it is exactly that same principle in a name falling in value as your holdings are so large. Similarly, as has been mentioned by some users above, INDIVIDUALS lose their bottle and want to sell out of their ISAs/investments. Traders are executing on behalf of the clients, so it's not as if they are making the choice to sell sell sell.
Similarly, on the sellside (investment banks) you are looking to do business and help facilitate the buyside trades. They will sell on behalf of these firms as you have better access to liquidity and other players in the market. The point I'm making, prop trading is near extinct now at large banks. Traders aren't able to take punts or make too many investment decisions like they once would. If anyone could be labelled as losing their nerve, it would be more the fund managers and general individual investors. People are indoctrinated now to believe stock markets only go up and the second they go down, people can't get to grips with this. I have seen a hell of a lot of client selling driving moves across the last fortnight. It is a tough environment for anyone making investment decisions right now. The moves may seem crazy, but I think this is a result of the market dynamics that have been created over the last decade or so.
Just a few thoughts...!