Whilst markets are at massive lows vs the previous 5 year bull market, I personally can't see enough positive sentiment emanating in the next 2 weeks to back buying at these levels right now. The only thing driving that activity is blind faith in the markets always bouncing back. With the new tax year just over a couple of weeks away, surely worth holding back, seeing what the next 14 days bring news-wise and if you're lucky enough to have a bit of cash sitting there, then go back in and make the most of the tax-free ISA allowance for the new year.
If you take Italy as a guide, UK covid death rates are only going to rise exponentially and those sort of headlines with no imminent closure to the spread occurring will lead to further falls in my opinion. Think it's been said already, undoubtedly buying opportunities are there but have a bit of patience with it. Back the fundamental reasons in investing, don't just act on the assumption that this will pass and markets rebound and trade on fomo.
FWIW I agree with your reading of the current situation.
But if anyone does have a little cash spare and haven't used up their ISA allowance this year, surely the thing to do is put it in a Cash ISA now and then transfer it to a Stocks and shares ISA at a later date? Otherwise the ISA allowance gets lost.
Historically at times like this there will be a number of days when the market has a good rise, with traders hoping to draw back in a few mug punters who think the tide has turned.
Those days will likely be followed by another huge fall which will completely wipe out those rises. In fact, surely we're waiting for the final huge sell-off when all seems completely lost at the moment? How far away is that - days, weeks , months? Who knows. But I'm sure it's coming.
Golfie: I am thinking of putting my spare £10k cash back in my emptied Nutmeg Stocks & Shares ISA. Presumably this is a good time to do that? I am thinking of a risk level 8/10 to maximise potential growth but, of course, also worried about potential crashes & company failures. Any thoughts?
Never a bad time to invest money when world stock markets are all down 30%. As long as you dont need it back again within the next 12-18 months. I can't say we are at the bottom but long term I can't see too much risk.
If you think you want to take a 8/10 risk then a global managed fund seems like a good bet. Baillie Gifford, Royal London or Liontrust have some decent ones.
Thanks Golfie; much appreciated words
If and when a lockdown is announced I imagine the markets will fall further. Probably best to wait and see what happens in the next couple of weeks in my opinion, recovery takes longer than the fall so the opportunity to buy isn't going away.
If you're going to stock pick though - looking at retailer shelves - companies like Unilever must be doing alright.
Yes, people are buying anything and everything, but surely we will only eat and utilise products at the same rate (maybe extra hand wash). So we are all massively stocked up. So I would expect sales to bomb post virus, whilst people use the mountains of stuff stock piled at home. So peak now may be slump later.
Maybe but home consumption will also go up and there's generally different suppliers for that than B2B which people would consume when at work etc.
FWIW I agree with your reading of the current situation.
But if anyone does have a little cash spare and haven't used up their ISA allowance this year, surely the thing to do is put it in a Cash ISA now and then transfer it to a Stocks and shares ISA at a later date? Otherwise the ISA allowance gets lost.
Yeah, you are right in terms of the most tax efficient way to manage your cash - I was speaking purely from the viewpoint of a more thoughtful trading strategy with the opportunity to use the ISA allowance almost as an excuse to not pull the trigger and stop any rash decision making.
As an aside, I'm not in financial management, but I do work as one of those kiddy traders in the city (!!). I do find some elements of what's been said a bit condescending, but equally completely agree with frustrations and that some of the market moves (particularly on an individual stock basis) have been massively over baked. Out of interest, if these moves were occurring across say a 6month time frame as news dripped through and the severity of the situation increased, would you be more understanding to them?
It's been mentioned before that the rise in electronic trading will lead to such huge swings. You will have lots of systematic funds out there setup to trade as certain trigger points are hit. Moves will happen far quicker and the herd mentality means more jump on the bandwagon and such large index moves on a daily basis will just become the norm now once a pattern is established. I have worked at companies both on the buy and sell side and apart from perhaps some cowboy brokers just milking comms from transactions and the vol traders looking to gain, my personal opinion is not that traders are necessarily losing their bottle or wanting to sell, it's more that the business models demand that they do, in turn driving prices down and exaggerating the sell off.
If you are on the buyside (asset mgmt, wealth mgmt etc), your customers are relying on you to be viewed as being proactive and 'doing something' in response to this news. You're hardly going to be buying up stock now as a PM, so your only option is to sell and trim your portfolio. Companies will hold millions in names that they want to offload....it's going to move the stock down. You cited you held Woodford funds, it is exactly that same principle in a name falling in value as your holdings are so large. Similarly, as has been mentioned by some users above, INDIVIDUALS lose their bottle and want to sell out of their ISAs/investments. Traders are executing on behalf of the clients, so it's not as if they are making the choice to sell sell sell.
Similarly, on the sellside (investment banks) you are looking to do business and help facilitate the buyside trades. They will sell on behalf of these firms as you have better access to liquidity and other players in the market. The point I'm making, prop trading is near extinct now at large banks. Traders aren't able to take punts or make too many investment decisions like they once would. If anyone could be labelled as losing their nerve, it would be more the fund managers and general individual investors. People are indoctrinated now to believe stock markets only go up and the second they go down, people can't get to grips with this. I have seen a hell of a lot of client selling driving moves across the last fortnight. It is a tough environment for anyone making investment decisions right now. The moves may seem crazy, but I think this is a result of the market dynamics that have been created over the last decade or so.
Lloyds Bank will soon be below 30p a share - quite incredible. Can they drop much further?
I thought they couldn't drop much below 40p! Hold because of their generous dividend payout but beginning to fear this crisis means they may stop paying a dividend again.
Amazing that a major bank has a share value at this level....
Surely it doesn't matter what the actual share price is as long as its backed up by the number of shares in issue.
Ie, Lloyds can have a share price of 30p if they have issued 1,000,000,00 shares. Or they can have a share price of £30 & have 1,000,000 on issue. Same market cap.
Amazing that a major bank has a share value at this level....
Surely it doesn't matter what the actual share price is as long as its backed up by the number of shares in issue.
Ie, Lloyds can have a share price of 30p if they have issued 1,000,000,00 shares. Or they can have a share price of £30 & have 1,000,000 on issue. Same market cap.
I'm not disagreeing with you but psychologically it sounds more valuable with a higher share price even if the market cap is the same.
FWIW I agree with your reading of the current situation.
But if anyone does have a little cash spare and haven't used up their ISA allowance this year, surely the thing to do is put it in a Cash ISA now and then transfer it to a Stocks and shares ISA at a later date? Otherwise the ISA allowance gets lost.
Yeah, you are right in terms of the most tax efficient way to manage your cash - I was speaking purely from the viewpoint of a more thoughtful trading strategy with the opportunity to use the ISA allowance almost as an excuse to not pull the trigger and stop any rash decision making.
As an aside, I'm not in financial management, but I do work as one of those kiddy traders in the city (!!). I do find some elements of what's been said a bit condescending, but equally completely agree with frustrations and that some of the market moves (particularly on an individual stock basis) have been massively over baked. Out of interest, if these moves were occurring across say a 6month time frame as news dripped through and the severity of the situation increased, would you be more understanding to them?
It's been mentioned before that the rise in electronic trading will lead to such huge swings. You will have lots of systematic funds out there setup to trade as certain trigger points are hit. Moves will happen far quicker and the herd mentality means more jump on the bandwagon and such large index moves on a daily basis will just become the norm now once a pattern is established. I have worked at companies both on the buy and sell side and apart from perhaps some cowboy brokers just milking comms from transactions and the vol traders looking to gain, my personal opinion is not that traders are necessarily losing their bottle or wanting to sell, it's more that the business models demand that they do, in turn driving prices down and exaggerating the sell off.
If you are on the buyside (asset mgmt, wealth mgmt etc), your customers are relying on you to be viewed as being proactive and 'doing something' in response to this news. You're hardly going to be buying up stock now as a PM, so your only option is to sell and trim your portfolio. Companies will hold millions in names that they want to offload....it's going to move the stock down. You cited you held Woodford funds, it is exactly that same principle in a name falling in value as your holdings are so large. Similarly, as has been mentioned by some users above, INDIVIDUALS lose their bottle and want to sell out of their ISAs/investments. Traders are executing on behalf of the clients, so it's not as if they are making the choice to sell sell sell.
Similarly, on the sellside (investment banks) you are looking to do business and help facilitate the buyside trades. They will sell on behalf of these firms as you have better access to liquidity and other players in the market. The point I'm making, prop trading is near extinct now at large banks. Traders aren't able to take punts or make too many investment decisions like they once would. If anyone could be labelled as losing their nerve, it would be more the fund managers and general individual investors. People are indoctrinated now to believe stock markets only go up and the second they go down, people can't get to grips with this. I have seen a hell of a lot of client selling driving moves across the last fortnight. It is a tough environment for anyone making investment decisions right now. The moves may seem crazy, but I think this is a result of the market dynamics that have been created over the last decade or so.
Just a few thoughts...!
That's a really interesting read. Thanks for posting.
And OK, I apologise for referring to kiddie traders! It's just I get really irked when after the market has a bad fall, a pundit will come on and say something like traders just didn't feel confident today. **** me, there have been loads of times I haven't felt confident at work but I've never wreaked havoc when I felt that!
You ask if I would be more understanding of the moves that are occurring if they happened across say a 6 month time frame as news dripped through and the severity of the situation increased. The answer to that would be an undoubted yes. It might also stop share prices across the board being hammered without any rhyme or reason in some cases.
So what do you think the next few weeks hold? Lots of violent ups and downs for a couple of weeks before a final huge sell-off?
I enjoy reading this thread and there appears to be a lot of collective knowledge and expertise here.
However, the impression I get, rightly or wrongly, is that you all have a decent amount of wedge invested one way or the other.
My question is whether anyone can recommend a DIY online platform for a very small investor in stocks and shares ( £5K-£10K or thereabouts) that doesn't rip off too much for fees whatever 'label' is attached to those fees?
One name I've been given is eToro. Anyone know anything about them and whether they are any good?
Now @bobmunro is essentially closed for business I need to find another way to lose money!
Does anyone know what the effect of the governments measures will be on inflation.
I cannot see how such an injection of cash over a sustained period cannot lead to inflation. Maybe not spiralling inflation - more like a sharp haircut in the value of the pound (or euro) in your pocket.
I'm wondering whether cash and bonds are as "safe" as we have become accustomed to over recent decades.
Does anyone know what the effect of the governments measures will be on inflation.
I cannot see how such an injection of cash over a sustained period cannot lead to inflation. Maybe not spiralling inflation - more like a sharp haircut in the value of the pound (or euro) in your pocket.
I'm wondering whether cash and bonds are as "safe" as we have become accustomed to over recent decades.
Everyone is gonna be printing money, I reckon it'll even out.
Does anyone know what the effect of the governments measures will be on inflation.
I cannot see how such an injection of cash over a sustained period cannot lead to inflation. Maybe not spiralling inflation - more like a sharp haircut in the value of the pound (or euro) in your pocket.
I'm wondering whether cash and bonds are as "safe" as we have become accustomed to over recent decades.
For inflation to exist you need people to be spending money.....and for that money to be plentiful & sustainable (to them) - meaning regular pay rises & securitu of employment. Demand must also outstrip supply.
Currently that is not happening & won't be for a few more years yet.
I enjoy reading this thread and there appears to be a lot of collective knowledge and expertise here.
However, the impression I get, rightly or wrongly, is that you all have a decent amount of wedge invested one way or the other.
My question is whether anyone can recommend a DIY online platform for a very small investor in stocks and shares ( £5K-£10K or thereabouts) that doesn't rip off too much for fees whatever 'label' is attached to those fees?
One name I've been given is eToro. Anyone know anything about them and whether they are any good?
Now @bobmunro is essentially closed for business I need to find another way to lose money!
The platforms I use for my clients have a basic charge of around 0.25%pa. The main thing to look for are the underlying fund charges. They can range from 0.2% for a tracker or passive fund to over 1% for an active or multi manager fund.
I would say it's not the platform charge to need to worry about but fund & ancillary charges that come with the Gomez you invest into.
I enjoy reading this thread and there appears to be a lot of collective knowledge and expertise here.
However, the impression I get, rightly or wrongly, is that you all have a decent amount of wedge invested one way or the other.
My question is whether anyone can recommend a DIY online platform for a very small investor in stocks and shares ( £5K-£10K or thereabouts) that doesn't rip off too much for fees whatever 'label' is attached to those fees?
One name I've been given is eToro. Anyone know anything about them and whether they are any good?
Now @bobmunro is essentially closed for business I need to find another way to lose money!
The platforms I use for my clients have a basic charge of around 0.25%pa. The main thing to look for are the underlying fund charges. They can range from 0.2% for a tracker or passive fund to over 1% for an active or multi manager fund.
I would say it's not the platform charge to need to worry about but fund & ancillary charges that come with the Gomez you invest into.
Thanks for the reply Golfie.
Stupid question I'm sure but what is a 'Gomez?' I assume it has nothing to do with Joe!
Acronyms and abbreviations are the bane of my life as I've posted previously on the 'General Things That Annoy You' thread.
I enjoy reading this thread and there appears to be a lot of collective knowledge and expertise here.
However, the impression I get, rightly or wrongly, is that you all have a decent amount of wedge invested one way or the other.
My question is whether anyone can recommend a DIY online platform for a very small investor in stocks and shares ( £5K-£10K or thereabouts) that doesn't rip off too much for fees whatever 'label' is attached to those fees?
One name I've been given is eToro. Anyone know anything about them and whether they are any good?
Now @bobmunro is essentially closed for business I need to find another way to lose money!
The platforms I use for my clients have a basic charge of around 0.25%pa. The main thing to look for are the underlying fund charges. They can range from 0.2% for a tracker or passive fund to over 1% for an active or multi manager fund.
I would say it's not the platform charge to need to worry about but fund & ancillary charges that come with the Gomez you invest into.
Thanks for the reply Golfie.
Stupid question I'm sure but what is a 'Gomez?' I assume it has nothing to do with Joe!
Acronyms and abbreviations are the bane of my life as I've posted previously on the 'General Things That Annoy You' thread.
Sorry, that was a typo. I should have proof read if first. I think it should read fund.
I enjoy reading this thread and there appears to be a lot of collective knowledge and expertise here.
However, the impression I get, rightly or wrongly, is that you all have a decent amount of wedge invested one way or the other.
My question is whether anyone can recommend a DIY online platform for a very small investor in stocks and shares ( £5K-£10K or thereabouts) that doesn't rip off too much for fees whatever 'label' is attached to those fees?
One name I've been given is eToro. Anyone know anything about them and whether they are any good?
Now @bobmunro is essentially closed for business I need to find another way to lose money!
The platforms I use for my clients have a basic charge of around 0.25%pa. The main thing to look for are the underlying fund charges. They can range from 0.2% for a tracker or passive fund to over 1% for an active or multi manager fund.
I would say it's not the platform charge to need to worry about but fund & ancillary charges that come with the Gomez you invest into.
Thanks for the reply Golfie.
Stupid question I'm sure but what is a 'Gomez?' I assume it has nothing to do with Joe!
Acronyms and abbreviations are the bane of my life as I've posted previously on the 'General Things That Annoy You' thread.
Sorry, that was a typo. I should have proof read if first. I think it should read fund.
I think I need to learn a lesson from the current crisis and IF levels ever get back to a profit on my ISA share holding, then I might just tip most of it into gold (which presumably will be at a decent buy rate, if the share market has recovered).
I think I need to learn a lesson from the current crisis and IF levels ever get back to a profit on my ISA share holding, then I might just tip most of it into gold (which presumably will be at a decent buy rate, if the share market has recovered).
Very difficult to hold gold, unless you have bundles of money. Nearest most people will get to it is buying an ETF & even then the price can drop just as much as the stockmarket has.
Comments
FTSE250 up 6.2%
But if anyone does have a little cash spare and haven't used up their ISA allowance this year, surely the thing to do is put it in a Cash ISA now and then transfer it to a Stocks and shares ISA at a later date? Otherwise the ISA allowance gets lost.
Historically at times like this there will be a number of days when the market has a good rise, with traders hoping to draw back in a few mug punters who think the tide has turned.
Those days will likely be followed by another huge fall which will completely wipe out those rises. In fact, surely we're waiting for the final huge sell-off when all seems completely lost at the moment? How far away is that - days, weeks , months? Who knows. But I'm sure it's coming.
As an aside, I'm not in financial management, but I do work as one of those kiddy traders in the city (!!). I do find some elements of what's been said a bit condescending, but equally completely agree with frustrations and that some of the market moves (particularly on an individual stock basis) have been massively over baked. Out of interest, if these moves were occurring across say a 6month time frame as news dripped through and the severity of the situation increased, would you be more understanding to them?
It's been mentioned before that the rise in electronic trading will lead to such huge swings. You will have lots of systematic funds out there setup to trade as certain trigger points are hit. Moves will happen far quicker and the herd mentality means more jump on the bandwagon and such large index moves on a daily basis will just become the norm now once a pattern is established. I have worked at companies both on the buy and sell side and apart from perhaps some cowboy brokers just milking comms from transactions and the vol traders looking to gain, my personal opinion is not that traders are necessarily losing their bottle or wanting to sell, it's more that the business models demand that they do, in turn driving prices down and exaggerating the sell off.
If you are on the buyside (asset mgmt, wealth mgmt etc), your customers are relying on you to be viewed as being proactive and 'doing something' in response to this news. You're hardly going to be buying up stock now as a PM, so your only option is to sell and trim your portfolio. Companies will hold millions in names that they want to offload....it's going to move the stock down. You cited you held Woodford funds, it is exactly that same principle in a name falling in value as your holdings are so large. Similarly, as has been mentioned by some users above, INDIVIDUALS lose their bottle and want to sell out of their ISAs/investments. Traders are executing on behalf of the clients, so it's not as if they are making the choice to sell sell sell.
Similarly, on the sellside (investment banks) you are looking to do business and help facilitate the buyside trades. They will sell on behalf of these firms as you have better access to liquidity and other players in the market. The point I'm making, prop trading is near extinct now at large banks. Traders aren't able to take punts or make too many investment decisions like they once would. If anyone could be labelled as losing their nerve, it would be more the fund managers and general individual investors. People are indoctrinated now to believe stock markets only go up and the second they go down, people can't get to grips with this. I have seen a hell of a lot of client selling driving moves across the last fortnight. It is a tough environment for anyone making investment decisions right now. The moves may seem crazy, but I think this is a result of the market dynamics that have been created over the last decade or so.
Just a few thoughts...!
Ie, Lloyds can have a share price of 30p if they have issued 1,000,000,00 shares. Or they can have a share price of £30 & have 1,000,000 on issue. Same market cap.
As a 65 year old I doubt I will ever recover my money.
And OK, I apologise for referring to kiddie traders! It's just I get really irked when after the market has a bad fall, a pundit will come on and say something like traders just didn't feel confident today. **** me, there have been loads of times I haven't felt confident at work but I've never wreaked havoc when I felt that!
You ask if I would be more understanding of the moves that are occurring if they happened across say a 6 month time frame as news dripped through and the severity of the situation increased. The answer to that would be an undoubted yes. It might also stop share prices across the board being hammered without any rhyme or reason in some cases.
So what do you think the next few weeks hold? Lots of violent ups and downs for a couple of weeks before a final huge sell-off?
I enjoy reading this thread and there appears to be a lot of collective knowledge and expertise here.
However, the impression I get, rightly or wrongly, is that you all have a decent amount of wedge invested one way or the other.
My question is whether anyone can recommend a DIY online platform for a very small investor in stocks and shares ( £5K-£10K or thereabouts) that doesn't rip off too much for fees whatever 'label' is attached to those fees?
One name I've been given is eToro. Anyone know anything about them and whether they are any good?
Now @bobmunro is essentially closed for business I need to find another way to lose money!
I cannot see how such an injection of cash over a sustained period cannot lead to inflation. Maybe not spiralling inflation - more like a sharp haircut in the value of the pound (or euro) in your pocket.
I'm wondering whether cash and bonds are as "safe" as we have become accustomed to over recent decades.
Currently that is not happening & won't be for a few more years yet.
I would say it's not the platform charge to need to worry about but fund & ancillary charges that come with the Gomez you invest into.
Thanks for the reply Golfie.
Stupid question I'm sure but what is a 'Gomez?' I assume it has nothing to do with Joe!
Acronyms and abbreviations are the bane of my life as I've posted previously on the 'General Things That Annoy You' thread.
Thanks for clarifying Golfie.