The average points tally for sixth place is 74 - we achieved the required 38-41 over the last 20 games in winning promotion in 97/98, 99/00 and 11/12, but with vastly better (relative to division) and more settled teams that crucially were already used to winning. It's not impossible for us to finish sixth from where we are - and there was one recent year when 69 was enough - but it's very unlikely based on the history and the maths. And that's without factoring in the injuries, suspensions and gaps in the squad.
If the average 6th place points tally has been 74 then win 13 of our remaining 20 games and that gives us a total of 75 points without any draws to boost the number up. We only lost 6 league games from the first 26 and we've moved in the right direction to strengthen where the team's gameplan had weaknesses.
Why not assume we win all 20? My point is that to get to 74 we need the exceptional level of performance of 1998, 2000 or 2012. Personally I haven't seen any evidence the squad is capable of that and it is a huge challenge to move from the results in the first 26 to the required total in the final 20 - the previous teams cited were all performing better already.
It's obviously not impossible, but looking at what we know it is highly unlikely.
It can be done, our problem has been drawing too many matches
Rochdale in 6th (who've played 1 game more than us) have won 6 more matches than us, but also lost 4 more matches as well, as they've drawn NINE fewer games than we have.
Our GD is in fact 2 better than theirs, it's the lack of narrow wins that's killed us, those 1-1s turned into 2-1s at the end.
Any idea where we;d be if we'd scored all our penalties this season? I might be overblowing them as an issue in my mind, but didn't we miss like 3 or 4 at the start of the season? And am I right in thinking, theoretically at least, all of those missed penalties cost us points?
In terms of GD, we're joint 6th, which suggests that our performances aren't a million miles from scraping into the playoffs, if we can turn draws into narrow wins
The average points tally for sixth place is 74 - we achieved the required 38-41 over the last 20 games in winning promotion in 97/98, 99/00 and 11/12, but with vastly better (relative to division) and more settled teams that crucially were already used to winning. It's not impossible for us to finish sixth from where we are - and there was one recent year when 69 was enough - but it's very unlikely based on the history and the maths. And that's without factoring in the injuries, suspensions and gaps in the squad.
If the average 6th place points tally has been 74 then win 13 of our remaining 20 games and that gives us a total of 75 points without any draws to boost the number up. We only lost 6 league games from the first 26 and we've moved in the right direction to strengthen where the team's gameplan had weaknesses.
Why not assume we win all 20? My point is that to get to 74 we need the exceptional level of performance of 1998, 2000 or 2012. Personally I haven't seen any evidence the squad is capable of that and it is a huge challenge to move from the results in the first 26 to the required total in the final 20 - the previous teams cited were all performing better already.
It's obviously not impossible, but looking at what we know it is highly unlikely.
It can be done, our problem has been drawing too many matches
Rochdale in 6th (who've played 1 game more than us) have won 6 more matches than us, but also lost 4 more matches as well, as they've drawn NINE fewer games than we have.
Our GD is in fact 2 better than theirs, it's the lack of narrow wins that's killed us, those 1-1s turned into 2-1s at the end.
Any idea where we;d be if we'd scored all our penalties this season? I might be overblowing them as an issue in my mind, but didn't we miss like 3 or 4 at the start of the season? And am I right in thinking, theoretically at least, all of those missed penalties cost us points?
Wasnt it just Crawley (awful Cup) | Rochdale | Gillingham that we missed pens?
The average points tally for sixth place is 74 - we achieved the required 38-41 over the last 20 games in winning promotion in 97/98, 99/00 and 11/12, but with vastly better (relative to division) and more settled teams that crucially were already used to winning. It's not impossible for us to finish sixth from where we are - and there was one recent year when 69 was enough - but it's very unlikely based on the history and the maths. And that's without factoring in the injuries, suspensions and gaps in the squad.
If the average 6th place points tally has been 74 then win 13 of our remaining 20 games and that gives us a total of 75 points without any draws to boost the number up. We only lost 6 league games from the first 26 and we've moved in the right direction to strengthen where the team's gameplan had weaknesses.
Why not assume we win all 20? My point is that to get to 74 we need the exceptional level of performance of 1998, 2000 or 2012. Personally I haven't seen any evidence the squad is capable of that and it is a huge challenge to move from the results in the first 26 to the required total in the final 20 - the previous teams cited were all performing better already.
It's obviously not impossible, but looking at what we know it is highly unlikely.
It can be done, our problem has been drawing too many matches
Rochdale in 6th (who've played 1 game more than us) have won 6 more matches than us, but also lost 4 more matches as well, as they've drawn NINE fewer games than we have.
Our GD is in fact 2 better than theirs, it's the lack of narrow wins that's killed us, those 1-1s turned into 2-1s at the end.
Any idea where we;d be if we'd scored all our penalties this season? I might be overblowing them as an issue in my mind, but didn't we miss like 3 or 4 at the start of the season? And am I right in thinking, theoretically at least, all of those missed penalties cost us points?
Wasnt it just Crawley (awful Cup) | Rochdale | Gillingham that we missed pens?
I'm guilty of thinking can make the playoffs myself sometimes but I just cannot see this squad going on a run to the end of the season. It is a pipe dream. I've seen us about 5/6 times this season and have come away disappointed every time. The squad lacks 2-3 players to be a good side (just like we always have done under RD), we don't have the midfield to break teams down and we don't have the strikers to get the goals we need (maybe mag, but he can't do it on his own and besides, he is injured).
The transfer window started with excitement, or at least that is what I was drawn on to believing. Is signing an untried youth player, an out of form winger, a midfielder that although looked promising a few years ago hasn't reached those levels in recent seasons and a left back that has once again hardly seen game time, whilst selling a left back although no the most talented, gave his all and our most creative player, really cause for excitement? (Wow, great punctuation)
KR has done a job geeing the fans up to believe, I'll give him that. But are we ever going to see this splash of the cash for a marquee signing, or is the training ground going to get some new corner flags?
The average points tally for sixth place is 74 - we achieved the required 38-41 over the last 20 games in winning promotion in 97/98, 99/00 and 11/12, but with vastly better (relative to division) and more settled teams that crucially were already used to winning. It's not impossible for us to finish sixth from where we are - and there was one recent year when 69 was enough - but it's very unlikely based on the history and the maths. And that's without factoring in the injuries, suspensions and gaps in the squad.
If the average 6th place points tally has been 74 then win 13 of our remaining 20 games and that gives us a total of 75 points without any draws to boost the number up. We only lost 6 league games from the first 26 and we've moved in the right direction to strengthen where the team's gameplan had weaknesses.
Why not assume we win all 20? My point is that to get to 74 we need the exceptional level of performance of 1998, 2000 or 2012. Personally I haven't seen any evidence the squad is capable of that and it is a huge challenge to move from the results in the first 26 to the required total in the final 20 - the previous teams cited were all performing better already.
It's obviously not impossible, but looking at what we know it is highly unlikely.
It can be done, our problem has been drawing too many matches
Rochdale in 6th (who've played 1 game more than us) have won 6 more matches than us, but also lost 4 more matches as well, as they've drawn NINE fewer games than we have.
Our GD is in fact 2 better than theirs, it's the lack of narrow wins that's killed us, those 1-1s turned into 2-1s at the end.
Any idea where we;d be if we'd scored all our penalties this season? I might be overblowing them as an issue in my mind, but didn't we miss like 3 or 4 at the start of the season? And am I right in thinking, theoretically at least, all of those missed penalties cost us points?
Wasnt it just Crawley (awful Cup) | Rochdale | Gillingham that we missed pens?
Maybe not, but we'd be above Millwall in 9th place on goal difference with a game in hand on all the teams around us and two games in hand on 4th and 5th place.
I know it's all ifs and buts, and we'd still be performing below expectations, but the play-offs would be very achievable if we hadn't missed those penalties.
The average points tally for sixth place is 74 - we achieved the required 38-41 over the last 20 games in winning promotion in 97/98, 99/00 and 11/12, but with vastly better (relative to division) and more settled teams that crucially were already used to winning. It's not impossible for us to finish sixth from where we are - and there was one recent year when 69 was enough - but it's very unlikely based on the history and the maths. And that's without factoring in the injuries, suspensions and gaps in the squad.
If the average 6th place points tally has been 74 then win 13 of our remaining 20 games and that gives us a total of 75 points without any draws to boost the number up. We only lost 6 league games from the first 26 and we've moved in the right direction to strengthen where the team's gameplan had weaknesses.
Why not assume we win all 20? My point is that to get to 74 we need the exceptional level of performance of 1998, 2000 or 2012. Personally I haven't seen any evidence the squad is capable of that and it is a huge challenge to move from the results in the first 26 to the required total in the final 20 - the previous teams cited were all performing better already.
It's obviously not impossible, but looking at what we know it is highly unlikely.
Barnsley did it last year. I think we have a better squad and manager. Just got to get over the injuries/suspensions. Therein lies the problem.
time is running out for kr come end of feb he will have us on his back, with the budget and the team we shouldnt be sitting 14th in league 1 we really shouldnt granted weve got a game in hand and if that had been won we would be sitting 11th.
i genuinely believe that we will be sold over the summer as roland wont be assed with the hassle, i think there needs to be a date which we agree that protests kick off again.
With Mag out, who will score the goals? Really KR needs to be signing a goal scorer before this window shuts
Dont worry... KM will do what we do every year.
Scrape through the Transfer Window and then when the Loan Window opens we'll bring in a few panic signings
There's no loan window. But we can sign out of contract players nobody else wants. Unfortunately, this time Roger Johnson already has a club.
Sorry was being sarcastic... Basically meant that the club will amble through the Transfer Window thinking they can rely on the loan window before realising midway through February that there is no loan window to rely upon
Rotherham not playing at the weekend so if we beat Blackpool we go back to 6th and 5th if Bradford lose to Wimbledon. SCP could do us a big favour by beating Scunny in his first match in charge of Southend.
Rotherham not playing at the weekend so if we beat Blackpool we go back to 6th and 5th if Bradford lose to Wimbledon. SCP could do us a big favour by beating Scunny in his first match in charge of Southend.
Good call, that’s almost how I see it...
Blackburn win at home to Northampton Shrewsbury draw away at Portsmouth Scunthorpe lose away at Southend Charlton won away at Blackpool Bradford draw at home with Wimbledon
So by 5pm on Saturday I think the table will look like this:
1. Wigan 60pts (not playing this weekend) 2. Blackburn 58pts 3. Shrewsbury 56pts 4. Scunthorpe 51pts 5. Charlton 49pts 6. Bradford 49pts 7. Rotherham 47pts (not playing this weekend) 8. Peterborough 43pts (not playing this weekend) 9. Portsmouth 43pts
when you look at it as above autos aren't completely out of reach, if we could nick a play off spot i would rather have a late flourish instead of sitting there the rest of the season.
Comments
In terms of GD, we're joint 6th, which suggests that our performances aren't a million miles from scraping into the playoffs, if we can turn draws into narrow wins
So that would have given us an extra four points
The transfer window started with excitement, or at least that is what I was drawn on to believing. Is signing an untried youth player, an out of form winger, a midfielder that although looked promising a few years ago hasn't reached those levels in recent seasons and a left back that has once again hardly seen game time, whilst selling a left back although no the most talented, gave his all and our most creative player, really cause for excitement? (Wow, great punctuation)
KR has done a job geeing the fans up to believe, I'll give him that. But are we ever going to see this splash of the cash for a marquee signing, or is the training ground going to get some new corner flags?
I know it's all ifs and buts, and we'd still be performing below expectations, but the play-offs would be very achievable if we hadn't missed those penalties.
I'm a Charlton fan. I think we will get one of the two automatic promotion places........ until it's mathmatically impossible.
In which case I absolutely believe we will get into a play off spot........... until it's mathmatically impossible.
Sod all the other clubs in the league.
i genuinely believe that we will be sold over the summer as roland wont be assed with the hassle, i think there needs to be a date which we agree that protests kick off again.
Scrape through the Transfer Window and then when the Loan Window opens we'll bring in a few panic signings
It’s a nice, but tiny town. About the same as losing to High Wycombe or Marlow in Bucks in terms of their overall support.
We're going to finish 8th.
Blackburn win at home to Northampton
Shrewsbury draw away at Portsmouth
Scunthorpe lose away at Southend
Charlton won away at Blackpool
Bradford draw at home with Wimbledon
So by 5pm on Saturday I think the table will look like this:
1. Wigan 60pts (not playing this weekend)
2. Blackburn 58pts
3. Shrewsbury 56pts
4. Scunthorpe 51pts
5. Charlton 49pts
6. Bradford 49pts
7. Rotherham 47pts (not playing this weekend)
8. Peterborough 43pts (not playing this weekend)
9. Portsmouth 43pts