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The influence of the EU on Britain.

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    Is there any chance that they are fucking it up so badly because it is a cunning plan to either: -

    (a). Make sure we leave without a deal.
    (b). Make sure we never leave at all.

    There’s never been a plan, she’s just muddling through trying to avoid the inevitable.
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    Is there any chance that they are fucking it up so badly because it is a cunning plan to either: -

    (a). Make sure we leave without a deal.
    (b). Make sure we never leave at all.

    No... You couldn't be this inept deliberately, surely
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    There has been a vote just now which was 305 to 302.
    It is all getting closer.
    The trouble is the politicians go on a three month holiday at the end of this week so they all get breathing space.
    Delay the inevitable I suppose.
    The Tories are ripping in to each other this week.
    People say Corbyn would be even worse, can it actually be any worse?
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    seth plum said:

    There has been a vote just now which was 305 to 302.
    It is all getting closer.
    The trouble is the politicians go on a three month holiday at the end of this week so they all get breathing space.
    Delay the inevitable I suppose.
    The Tories are ripping in to each other this week.
    People say Corbyn would be even worse, can it actually be any worse?

    A vote on what ?
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    seth plum said:

    There has been a vote just now which was 305 to 302.
    It is all getting closer.
    The trouble is the politicians go on a three month holiday at the end of this week so they all get breathing space.
    Delay the inevitable I suppose.
    The Tories are ripping in to each other this week.
    People say Corbyn would be even worse, can it actually be any worse?

    A vote on what ?
    basically to amended the recent white paper to say that if we collect taxes for the EU then the EU must collect them for us. Something I wholeheartedly agree with. can't have one without the other.

    Obviously the other EU countries wont agree to this & so the white paper is dead in the water.
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    seth plum said:

    There has been a vote just now which was 305 to 302.
    It is all getting closer.
    The trouble is the politicians go on a three month holiday at the end of this week so they all get breathing space.
    Delay the inevitable I suppose.
    The Tories are ripping in to each other this week.
    People say Corbyn would be even worse, can it actually be any worse?

    A vote on what ?
    basically to amended the recent white paper to say that if we collect taxes for the EU then the EU must collect them for us. Something I wholeheartedly agree with. can't have one without the other.

    Obviously the other EU countries wont agree to this & so the white paper is dead in the water.
    Thanks.
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    edited July 2018
    seth plum said:

    The Chequers agreement or 'May's Deal' is the UKdisagreeing with itself.
    Sort of.
    After two years.
    It is not what brexit will be, I suspect nowhere near what brexit will be.
    It is the UK reaching the beginning of the beginning.
    After two years.
    From this it won't be the EU acting like children instead of behaving like grown ups, it will be the EU getting first sight of something and beginning to measure it against their own rules.
    The sight of this much heralded white paper being slung around and distributed at the last minute last Thursday in the House of Commons, just as Rabb was about to talk about it, is all the EU and the rest of the world needs to know about just how miserably f*cked up this country is at the moment.
    Traditional British values meets traditional British Monty Python, and brings forth the ugliest love child ever. Never again can the UK mock Italian or any other governments for being a basket case.

    You're probably right in that the white paper is certainly nowhere near the outcome. But perhaps we have reached the end of the beginning? The point where Davis and Johnson jumped ship.

    The beginning of the third act where the referendum and aftermath was act I and article 50 plus the election and phoney war was Act II?

    Perhaps we can view this as a growth opportunity for the country? A chance to readjust and come to terms with who we are. Tonight we see reports of long avoided blue on blue attacks in the House of Commons. Its still unclear whether the Government might weather the storm of its own making. They talk of an early summer recess just to limit the damage - for it's about to become very feisty!

    We are about to leave the EU and have all but sacrificed any real influence on their (the EU) journey and development. But that doesn't mean we have to leave the Single Market and Customs Union.

    The adult question is what is to become of the United Kingdom? For the UK is a combination of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and it appears that keeping the UK together is about to trump all cards played by these alt-right entryists attempting to run the Tory party and in turn, the nation.

    The dance continues and we are now entering a fascinating phase. For we have May wholly dependent upon consideration from M.Barnier and we also have a Labour conference in September where both Unite and Momentum hold positions which are "in advance" of where Corbyn and McDonnell currently sit.

    Let us be philosophical for now a second poll reports a 6% Labour lead as Tories bleed support to Ukip. And if anybody is really interested in ideas around productivity, try Mazzucato rather than @Dippenhall ! She is dry and perhaps hard going - certainly not a simplistic Varoufakis approach nor that of a journalist. But still, there is deep insight based upon a lifetime of study. And a fascinating challenge to received wisdom.

    Ultimately productivity has rocketed in the Western world since 1979. However, many countries have seen a stagnation in ordinary people's wages thanks to globalisation and other factors.

    We are at a crossroads and Brexit is but a road sign as we contemplate where we are heading.

    Stop press - the government have organised to defeat a Labour amendment keeping membership of the Customs Union as an option - battle lines being drawn! No Customs Union = no soft border in Ireland nor Kent ports? And a "Remain" junior minister jumps ship so as to vote against Rees Mogg amendment.

    It's somewhat bizarre but our country will surely find a way through this challenge.
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    seth plum said:

    There has been a vote just now which was 305 to 302.
    It is all getting closer.
    The trouble is the politicians go on a three month holiday at the end of this week so they all get breathing space.
    Delay the inevitable I suppose.
    The Tories are ripping in to each other this week.
    People say Corbyn would be even worse, can it actually be any worse?

    A vote on what ?
    basically to amended the recent white paper to say that if we collect taxes for the EU then the EU must collect them for us. Something I wholeheartedly agree with. can't have one without the other.

    Obviously the other EU countries wont agree to this & so the white paper is dead in the water.
    But when we fail to colllect them at the Irish border under WTO rules we shall probably be subject to economic sanctions.
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    se9addick said:

    So it sounds like May’s “Chequers compromise” which would almost certainly be rejected by Brussels now won’t even make it that far after she has caved it to Brexiteers and has agreed to amendments to the Customs Bill - some of which seem to directly contradict the plan she came up with a couple of weeks ago.

    Absolute shambles.

    You can support it or not, but this is beyond belief. I really can't see how this shambles of a government can continue. This is people's livliehoods at stake here, whether you support Brexit or Remain. I think it is coming down to the two things - leaving with nothing or not leaving at all. What is needed, and everybody should support this, is a clarification of what people actually want via a clear second people's vote. Whatever the outcome, politicians need to be aware what the people are instructing.
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    When it comes to politicians, Michael Gove is playing a very slippery game.
    Tried to re invent himself by masquerading as Mother Nature, stays with the Chequers agreement for now, calculating the UK can backtrack after leaving, distancing himself from the vote leave campaign methods. This is a man who backstabbed his mate Boris.
    This is a Tory.
    Keep an eye on him, a gold plated Prince of Darkness if ever there was one.
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    seth plum said:

    When it comes to politicians, Michael Gove is playing a very slippery game.
    Tried to re invent himself by masquerading as Mother Nature, stays with the Chequers agreement for now, calculating the UK can backtrack after leaving, distancing himself from the vote leave campaign methods. This is a man who backstabbed his mate Boris.
    This is a Tory.
    Keep an eye on him, a gold plated Prince of Darkness if ever there was one.

    Jon Culshaw is rubbing his hands with glee at this priceless material.

    Govey, Govey, Govey.
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    se9addick said:

    So it sounds like May’s “Chequers compromise” which would almost certainly be rejected by Brussels now won’t even make it that far after she has caved it to Brexiteers and has agreed to amendments to the Customs Bill - some of which seem to directly contradict the plan she came up with a couple of weeks ago.

    Absolute shambles.

    You can support it or not, but this is beyond belief. I really can't see how this shambles of a government can continue. This is people's livliehoods at stake here, whether you support Brexit or Remain. I think it is coming down to the two things - leaving with nothing or not leaving at all. What is needed, and everybody should support this, is a clarification of what people actually want via a clear second people's vote. Whatever the outcome, politicians need to be aware what the people are instructing.
    I honestly think what is needed is for Labour to now back a Norway deal:

    - it honours the referendum result to leave the EU
    - it’s achievable in the timescales (assuming we get the two year “implementation period still”)
    - it solves the Irish border question
    - it protects our economy from a cliff edge scenario
    - it would probably get the support of enough Tory remainer MPs and Lords to pass through Westminster
    - it’s a proposal that the EU will actually accept (unlike Chequers which was never going to be accepted anyway)
    - it won’t provide an end to free movement

    This should have been the approach from the start, of the nation is still unsatisfied then we can change the relationship in the future but this now all pointing towards a no deal scenario which will be an absolute disaster.
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    I think we need another vote. The thing is, we need to put this to bed. If we have no deal the country will be torn apart, if we have a soft deal the country will be torn apart. The country is being torn apart. Let's do the vote again but properly this time - yes or no - then sub vote - if yes wins - Norway type deal or no deal at all?

    That will put all the arguments to bed whatever your position! Or should we continue arguing and tearing ourselves apart for the next twenty years?
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    I think we need another vote. The thing is, we need to put this to bed. If we have no deal the country will be torn apart, if we have a soft deal the country will be torn apart. The country is being torn apart. Let's do the vote again but properly this time - yes or no - then sub vote - if yes wins - Norway type deal or no deal at all?

    That will put all the arguments to bed whatever your position! Or should we continue arguing and tearing ourselves apart for the next twenty years?

    The country is now split following the initial referendum and I can't see how a further referendum can help matters. It's down to our politicians to sort it out but they are either unwilling or unable to do so.

    Can't see how this can end well....
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    The more I hear and the more I read, I think the gvt should either vote on

    Leaving with no deal or scrapping the whole thing and staying. There’s no inbetween for me now.

    It’s one or the other
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    cabbles said:

    The more I hear and the more I read, I think the gvt should either vote on

    Leaving with no deal or scrapping the whole thing and staying. There’s no inbetween for me now.

    It’s one or the other

    It does seem the Government are incapable of negotiating a deal or even understand what needs to be done..
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    Vote Leave fined £61k and referred to Police by Electoral Commission for breaches in electoral spending.

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    My problem with another vote is that it won't put it all to bed.
    There will be variations on the 'best of three' scenario.
    The Tories are imploding and they are determined to take the country down with them, cheered on by the 52%.
    Brexiters go on about leavers promoting 'project fear' and say it is a myth because the sky hasn't fallen in yet. Maybe the only way to demonstrate what they have done is the hardest of hard brexits.
    I am talking about mass repatriations, huge trade tariffs and disruptions, armed borders with lengthy checks, visas everywhere, no energy in Northern Ireland, no shared airspace, no shared security, Royal Navy on patrol to take out EU fishing fleets. Isolation in the strictest sense, because it is what the 52% voted for, and it might focus their minds.
    If brexiters say don't be silly it is not what we voted for, then it is beholden on them to say exactly what they did vote for then.
    A second referendum certainly won't bring the country together so now it is divided maybe the thing to do is to flush out the divisions. I want to know who they are, those who hate foreigners, who love Johnson, Gove and Farage. In the absence of uniforms it seems more honest to know the enemy in other ways, those cheering on the hard brexit, in my view any brexit at all, certainly feel like the enemy to me.

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    edited July 2018
    I think it will - A Norway type vote means a soft Brexit - not exactly like Norway - that has to be negotiated but along those lines and a no agreement WTO vote is clear enough. nobody can say people voted for this or that, because everybody who currently does is making it up to suit their own agenda as they can't know everybody's reasons. Of course a second referendum would also give people a chance to change their mind, given the dogs dinner they have witnessed since the original vote! I can't see how people can argue with any vote that has clarity, whether they agree with it or not!
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    The problem is that clarity and reason is off the table for brexiters.
    Their mantra is 'I don't care', on repeat forever.
    They won.
    It is a matter of emotion not logic.
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    Clarity and reason is off the table for everybody. We all have to find a way to get it back.
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    I am not sure if even the prospect of rationing would put most hardened Brexiters off.
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    I am not sure if even the prospect of rationing would put most hardened Brexiters off.

    I agree, but I think they are the minority - at least I hope so!
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    Clarity and reason is off the table for everybody. We all have to find a way to get it back.

    I have sympathy for this view.
    However, I have met @Dippenhall and like the man, we have things in common like Charlton and outrage at the Olympic Stadium fiasco. You would think there is something to build on there, but he is implacably opposed to my view, and me to his. There is no common ground, and any way he can rightly say his side won, there is no need for any rapprochement the results are in.
    In that context what would even be the first baby steps towards any common ground?
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    se9addick said:

    se9addick said:

    So it sounds like May’s “Chequers compromise” which would almost certainly be rejected by Brussels now won’t even make it that far after she has caved it to Brexiteers and has agreed to amendments to the Customs Bill - some of which seem to directly contradict the plan she came up with a couple of weeks ago.

    Absolute shambles.

    You can support it or not, but this is beyond belief. I really can't see how this shambles of a government can continue. This is people's livliehoods at stake here, whether you support Brexit or Remain. I think it is coming down to the two things - leaving with nothing or not leaving at all. What is needed, and everybody should support this, is a clarification of what people actually want via a clear second people's vote. Whatever the outcome, politicians need to be aware what the people are instructing.
    I honestly think what is needed is for Labour to now back a Norway deal:

    - it honours the referendum result to leave the EU
    - it’s achievable in the timescales (assuming we get the two year “implementation period still”)
    - it solves the Irish border question
    - it protects our economy from a cliff edge scenario
    - it would probably get the support of enough Tory remainer MPs and Lords to pass through Westminster
    - it’s a proposal that the EU will actually accept (unlike Chequers which was never going to be accepted anyway)
    - it won’t provide an end to free movement

    This should have been the approach from the start, of the nation is still unsatisfied then we can change the relationship in the future but this now all pointing towards a no deal scenario which will be an absolute disaster.
    Labour are playing it long on this because they are worried about the views of the Labour voting hard brexiteers mainly in the north. It's your last bullet point that is their big conundrum

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    Rees-Mogg articulates the mindset of Brexit extremely well. An unbending, unchanging mantra that defies all logic and whose arguments do not stand up to even the flimsiest of scrutiny.

    In the face of overwhelming evidence from Economists, business and politicians the blind dogma and untruths that everything is going to be fine is belligerently trotted out and worryingly is seemingly still believed by around half the population.

    May is genuinely between a rock and a hard place. On one side a realisation that anything other the softest of brexits will be utterly catastrophic for the country’s future and on the other the complete nutters in her own party who would rather see everything collapse than admit they were wrong.

    Just where the Prime Minister goes from here is unclear. How can she cling on to power when every which way she turns alienates a half of her party.
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    se9addick said:

    se9addick said:

    So it sounds like May’s “Chequers compromise” which would almost certainly be rejected by Brussels now won’t even make it that far after she has caved it to Brexiteers and has agreed to amendments to the Customs Bill - some of which seem to directly contradict the plan she came up with a couple of weeks ago.

    Absolute shambles.

    You can support it or not, but this is beyond belief. I really can't see how this shambles of a government can continue. This is people's livliehoods at stake here, whether you support Brexit or Remain. I think it is coming down to the two things - leaving with nothing or not leaving at all. What is needed, and everybody should support this, is a clarification of what people actually want via a clear second people's vote. Whatever the outcome, politicians need to be aware what the people are instructing.
    I honestly think what is needed is for Labour to now back a Norway deal:

    - it honours the referendum result to leave the EU
    - it’s achievable in the timescales (assuming we get the two year “implementation period still”)
    - it solves the Irish border question
    - it protects our economy from a cliff edge scenario
    - it would probably get the support of enough Tory remainer MPs and Lords to pass through Westminster
    - it’s a proposal that the EU will actually accept (unlike Chequers which was never going to be accepted anyway)
    - it won’t provide an end to free movement

    This should have been the approach from the start, of the nation is still unsatisfied then we can change the relationship in the future but this now all pointing towards a no deal scenario which will be an absolute disaster.
    Labour are playing it long on this because they are worried about the views of the Labour voting hard brexiteers mainly in the north. It's your last bullet point that is their big conundrum

    I agree, freedom of movement is the big issue in all of this. It stems back to Cameron’s “I’ll reduce immigration to tens of thousands” things a few years ago which legitimised the idea that immigration is bad.

    If I were Labour leader I would change the lens and re-cast immigration as a good thing that creates a net benefit to our country economically, socially and culturally. Not only is it true but that way you no are no longer shackled to Cameron’s mistake meaning you are now free to come to a sensible deal with the EU which keeps the four freedoms intact.
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    edited July 2018
    Those wanting a Hard/No Deal Brexit have still to even propose a workable border solution let alone a plan to have it in place in 9 months. They should not be allowed to set the Brexit agenda until they do so.
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    se9addick said:

    se9addick said:

    se9addick said:

    So it sounds like May’s “Chequers compromise” which would almost certainly be rejected by Brussels now won’t even make it that far after she has caved it to Brexiteers and has agreed to amendments to the Customs Bill - some of which seem to directly contradict the plan she came up with a couple of weeks ago.

    Absolute shambles.

    You can support it or not, but this is beyond belief. I really can't see how this shambles of a government can continue. This is people's livliehoods at stake here, whether you support Brexit or Remain. I think it is coming down to the two things - leaving with nothing or not leaving at all. What is needed, and everybody should support this, is a clarification of what people actually want via a clear second people's vote. Whatever the outcome, politicians need to be aware what the people are instructing.
    I honestly think what is needed is for Labour to now back a Norway deal:

    - it honours the referendum result to leave the EU
    - it’s achievable in the timescales (assuming we get the two year “implementation period still”)
    - it solves the Irish border question
    - it protects our economy from a cliff edge scenario
    - it would probably get the support of enough Tory remainer MPs and Lords to pass through Westminster
    - it’s a proposal that the EU will actually accept (unlike Chequers which was never going to be accepted anyway)
    - it won’t provide an end to free movement

    This should have been the approach from the start, of the nation is still unsatisfied then we can change the relationship in the future but this now all pointing towards a no deal scenario which will be an absolute disaster.
    Labour are playing it long on this because they are worried about the views of the Labour voting hard brexiteers mainly in the north. It's your last bullet point that is their big conundrum

    I agree, freedom of movement is the big issue in all of this. It stems back to Cameron’s “I’ll reduce immigration to tens of thousands” things a few years ago which legitimised the idea that immigration is bad.

    If I were Labour leader I would change the lens and re-cast immigration as a good thing that creates a net benefit to our country economically, socially and culturally. Not only is it true but that way you no are no longer shackled to Cameron’s mistake meaning you are now free to come to a sensible deal with the EU which keeps the four freedoms intact.
    Great post.
    Immigration is an overwhelmingly good thing in my opinion.
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