It'll be a roller coaster ride I suspect, as always with this type of thing, invest what you can happily afford to lose. I won't dip in again until it's sub 8k USD, that said I can see it sliding much further.
I would summarise my current view why I own some despite massive scepticism as follows - for various reasons there is a very high probability that Bitcoin will ultimately be worthless (govt regulation, no central backer of last resort, hacking risk, competition etc.)
However there is a very small probability that the blockchain technology and limited supply aspects are sufficiently robust that it does indeed become recognised as an alternative store of value - if this occurs it could be worth many times more than the current price.
For example if it ultimately reached a valuation equivalent to say 20% of the current value of all the world's gold (20% x $7.2tn = $1.4tn) then the value of a Bitcoin would be $666k ($1.4tn/21m) or 67x the current $10k price.
Thus if you thought the above scenario had a greater than 1.5% probability ($666k x 1.5% = $10k) then buying Bitcoin today has a positive expected value even though in the vast majority of scenarios you will lose everything.
A most interesting angle, as usual. Would I be impertinent to ask what % of your savings/investments you have put into bitcoin? And do you own any gold, if so, in what form? Actual bars or something else?
I heard a guy on R4 this morning say "it's a commodity, not a currency" which I found helpful.
A most interesting angle, as usual. Would I be impertinent to ask what % of your savings/investments you have put into bitcoin? And do you own any gold, if so, in what form? Actual bars or something else?
I heard a guy on R4 this morning say "it's a commodity, not a currency" which I found helpful.
I agree, at this stage consider it as commodity trading.
A most interesting angle, as usual. Would I be impertinent to ask what % of your savings/investments you have put into bitcoin? And do you own any gold, if so, in what form? Actual bars or something else?
I heard a guy on R4 this morning say "it's a commodity, not a currency" which I found helpful.
Approx 0.5% in Bitcoin (via the Sweden-listed tracker) and 5% in gold (via ETFs).
I would summarise my current view why I own some despite massive scepticism as follows - for various reasons there is a very high probability that Bitcoin will ultimately be worthless (govt regulation, no central backer of last resort, hacking risk, competition etc.)
However there is a very small probability that the blockchain technology and limited supply aspects are sufficiently robust that it does indeed become recognised as an alternative store of value - if this occurs it could be worth many times more than the current price.
For example if it ultimately reached a valuation equivalent to say 20% of the current value of all the world's gold (20% x $7.2tn = $1.4tn) then the value of a Bitcoin would be $666k ($1.4tn/21m) or 67x the current $10k price.
Thus if you thought the above scenario had a greater than 1.5% probability ($666k x 1.5% = $10k) then buying Bitcoin today has a positive expected value even though in the vast majority of scenarios you will lose everything.
Bitcoin cannot be regulated. It’s basically it’s main and ultimately only attraction.
I’d put more resources into ethereum which has more of a functioning future imo.
I would summarise my current view why I own some despite massive scepticism as follows - for various reasons there is a very high probability that Bitcoin will ultimately be worthless (govt regulation, no central backer of last resort, hacking risk, competition etc.)
However there is a very small probability that the blockchain technology and limited supply aspects are sufficiently robust that it does indeed become recognised as an alternative store of value - if this occurs it could be worth many times more than the current price.
For example if it ultimately reached a valuation equivalent to say 20% of the current value of all the world's gold (20% x $7.2tn = $1.4tn) then the value of a Bitcoin would be $666k ($1.4tn/21m) or 67x the current $10k price.
Thus if you thought the above scenario had a greater than 1.5% probability ($666k x 1.5% = $10k) then buying Bitcoin today has a positive expected value even though in the vast majority of scenarios you will lose everything.
Bitcoin cannot be regulated. It’s basically it’s main and ultimately only attraction.
I’d put more resources into ethereum which has more of a functioning future imo.
Governments can just make it illegal for its citizens to own Bitcoin
I would summarise my current view why I own some despite massive scepticism as follows - for various reasons there is a very high probability that Bitcoin will ultimately be worthless (govt regulation, no central backer of last resort, hacking risk, competition etc.)
However there is a very small probability that the blockchain technology and limited supply aspects are sufficiently robust that it does indeed become recognised as an alternative store of value - if this occurs it could be worth many times more than the current price.
For example if it ultimately reached a valuation equivalent to say 20% of the current value of all the world's gold (20% x $7.2tn = $1.4tn) then the value of a Bitcoin would be $666k ($1.4tn/21m) or 67x the current $10k price.
Thus if you thought the above scenario had a greater than 1.5% probability ($666k x 1.5% = $10k) then buying Bitcoin today has a positive expected value even though in the vast majority of scenarios you will lose everything.
Bitcoin cannot be regulated. It’s basically it’s main and ultimately only attraction.
I’d put more resources into ethereum which has more of a functioning future imo.
Governments can just make it illegal for its citizens to own Bitcoin
Which isn’t regulation. It’s criminalisation. Which seems to be driving the value of bitcoin up even higher.
I would summarise my current view why I own some despite massive scepticism as follows - for various reasons there is a very high probability that Bitcoin will ultimately be worthless (govt regulation, no central backer of last resort, hacking risk, competition etc.)
However there is a very small probability that the blockchain technology and limited supply aspects are sufficiently robust that it does indeed become recognised as an alternative store of value - if this occurs it could be worth many times more than the current price.
For example if it ultimately reached a valuation equivalent to say 20% of the current value of all the world's gold (20% x $7.2tn = $1.4tn) then the value of a Bitcoin would be $666k ($1.4tn/21m) or 67x the current $10k price.
Thus if you thought the above scenario had a greater than 1.5% probability ($666k x 1.5% = $10k) then buying Bitcoin today has a positive expected value even though in the vast majority of scenarios you will lose everything.
Bitcoin cannot be regulated. It’s basically it’s main and ultimately only attraction.
I’d put more resources into ethereum which has more of a functioning future imo.
Governments can just make it illegal for its citizens to own Bitcoin
Like they did in China, want to know what the result was, business as normal. I can exchange cash for bitcoins within minutes, whenever I want.
I would summarise my current view why I own some despite massive scepticism as follows - for various reasons there is a very high probability that Bitcoin will ultimately be worthless (govt regulation, no central backer of last resort, hacking risk, competition etc.)
However there is a very small probability that the blockchain technology and limited supply aspects are sufficiently robust that it does indeed become recognised as an alternative store of value - if this occurs it could be worth many times more than the current price.
For example if it ultimately reached a valuation equivalent to say 20% of the current value of all the world's gold (20% x $7.2tn = $1.4tn) then the value of a Bitcoin would be $666k ($1.4tn/21m) or 67x the current $10k price.
Thus if you thought the above scenario had a greater than 1.5% probability ($666k x 1.5% = $10k) then buying Bitcoin today has a positive expected value even though in the vast majority of scenarios you will lose everything.
Bitcoin cannot be regulated. It’s basically it’s main and ultimately only attraction.
I’d put more resources into ethereum which has more of a functioning future imo.
Governments can just make it illegal for its citizens to own Bitcoin
Like they did in China, want to know what the result was, business as normal. I can exchange cash for bitcoins within minutes, whenever I want.
Online gambling is illegal in China also - oh hang on a minute ....
Does anyone use Coinbase? I have downloaded the app, but I am struggling to find any useful information about the typical charges they apply. Anyone know roughly how much they equate to?
Does anyone use Coinbase? I have downloaded the app, but I am struggling to find any useful information about the typical charges they apply. Anyone know roughly how much they equate to?
They take a small percentage (3-4% iirc) of any transaction you make.
I would summarise my current view why I own some despite massive scepticism as follows - for various reasons there is a very high probability that Bitcoin will ultimately be worthless (govt regulation, no central backer of last resort, hacking risk, competition etc.)
However there is a very small probability that the blockchain technology and limited supply aspects are sufficiently robust that it does indeed become recognised as an alternative store of value - if this occurs it could be worth many times more than the current price.
For example if it ultimately reached a valuation equivalent to say 20% of the current value of all the world's gold (20% x $7.2tn = $1.4tn) then the value of a Bitcoin would be $666k ($1.4tn/21m) or 67x the current $10k price.
Thus if you thought the above scenario had a greater than 1.5% probability ($666k x 1.5% = $10k) then buying Bitcoin today has a positive expected value even though in the vast majority of scenarios you will lose everything.
Bitcoin cannot be regulated. It’s basically it’s main and ultimately only attraction.
I’d put more resources into ethereum which has more of a functioning future imo.
Governments can just make it illegal for its citizens to own Bitcoin
Like they did in China, want to know what the result was, business as normal. I can exchange cash for bitcoins within minutes, whenever I want.
Online gambling is illegal in China also - oh hang on a minute ....
You bastards closed my account due to suspicious vpn use!!!!!!
I would summarise my current view why I own some despite massive scepticism as follows - for various reasons there is a very high probability that Bitcoin will ultimately be worthless (govt regulation, no central backer of last resort, hacking risk, competition etc.)
However there is a very small probability that the blockchain technology and limited supply aspects are sufficiently robust that it does indeed become recognised as an alternative store of value - if this occurs it could be worth many times more than the current price.
For example if it ultimately reached a valuation equivalent to say 20% of the current value of all the world's gold (20% x $7.2tn = $1.4tn) then the value of a Bitcoin would be $666k ($1.4tn/21m) or 67x the current $10k price.
Thus if you thought the above scenario had a greater than 1.5% probability ($666k x 1.5% = $10k) then buying Bitcoin today has a positive expected value even though in the vast majority of scenarios you will lose everything.
Bitcoin cannot be regulated. It’s basically it’s main and ultimately only attraction.
I’d put more resources into ethereum which has more of a functioning future imo.
Governments can just make it illegal for its citizens to own Bitcoin
Like they did in China, want to know what the result was, business as normal. I can exchange cash for bitcoins within minutes, whenever I want.
China didn't ban it outright, just the trading of it on exchanges and the use of ICOs (initial coin offerings).
Does anyone know how to get your money from Bitcoin into your UK bank account? seem to need to transfer it into my euro account. Not sure what to do next, a lot of people seem to have problems with it from what I've seen online
I should confess that in the example calculation I posted above, if all of the 21m Bitcoin which will eventually be in circulation become worth 20% of the all of the world's gold then they would be worth approx. $66k each and not $666k (apologies, got confused by all of the zeroes!).
Either way, that's still another 400% from here though the risk/reward attractiveness of owning it here is diminishing by the day.
Comments
It'll be a roller coaster ride I suspect, as always with this type of thing, invest what you can happily afford to lose. I won't dip in again until it's sub 8k USD, that said I can see it sliding much further.
However there is a very small probability that the blockchain technology and limited supply aspects are sufficiently robust that it does indeed become recognised as an alternative store of value - if this occurs it could be worth many times more than the current price.
For example if it ultimately reached a valuation equivalent to say 20% of the current value of all the world's gold (20% x $7.2tn = $1.4tn) then the value of a Bitcoin would be $666k ($1.4tn/21m) or 67x the current $10k price.
Thus if you thought the above scenario had a greater than 1.5% probability ($666k x 1.5% = $10k) then buying Bitcoin today has a positive expected value even though in the vast majority of scenarios you will lose everything.
A most interesting angle, as usual. Would I be impertinent to ask what % of your savings/investments you have put into bitcoin? And do you own any gold, if so, in what form? Actual bars or something else?
I heard a guy on R4 this morning say "it's a commodity, not a currency" which I found helpful.
I’d put more resources into ethereum which has more of a functioning future imo.
Seems unsustainable?
Was looking at historic rates and dreaming of investing £50 back in 2011
Either way, that's still another 400% from here though the risk/reward attractiveness of owning it here is diminishing by the day.