thought i was going to land 2 bets last night but reading could not score unfortunately wankers
btts accross all 4 league cup games 12.75/1
and a treble on btts and match result
milllwall everton watford
31.74/1
cheers reading
Ughhhh unlucky, immediately thought good bet but then realised you had BTTS too.
@guinnessaddick that is sickening, the audacity of the bet though...
@IdleHans I think you are spot on here with a good method, personally i wasn't going to bet much start of season but as done ok have just kept betting. When you first started singles/treble how much was initial stake out of interest? i think i could probably pick a treble most weeks.
This thread and @paulbaconsarnie has seriously exposed me how difficult it is and how much it’s weighted in the bookies favour. If you take the Predictions Com, if we have such a poor record in picking just three results, what chance have 5-6 teams accys really got?
This thread and @paulbaconsarnie has seriously exposed me how difficult it is and how much it’s weighted in the bookies favour. If you take the Predictions Com, if we have such a poor record in picking just three results, what chance have 5-6 teams accys really got?
I usually just pick 6-8 teams who are at the top or near in their league across europe and put ten on it. Won 120 last weekend.
This thread and @paulbaconsarnie has seriously exposed me how difficult it is and how much it’s weighted in the bookies favour. If you take the Predictions Com, if we have such a poor record in picking just three results, what chance have 5-6 teams accys really got?
Personally i am doing well, up until last season i used to always do more longshots and rarely win. last year i did ok and started of well this season, i wouldnt say i have it sussed, but more sensible bets now means that i am not guaranteed to lose every week, hopefully i haven't given myself the kiss of death.
I'd say I win about 1 in every 10 bets - never stake more than £5 and odds are usually minimum 30-1. Like any form of gambling you go on bad runs and sometimes you go on good runs,. As I've said in the past though I aint in it to make my fortune or anything it's just a bit of fun for me.
This thread and @paulbaconsarnie has seriously exposed me how difficult it is and how much it’s weighted in the bookies favour. If you take the Predictions Com, if we have such a poor record in picking just three results, what chance have 5-6 teams accys really got?
Rarely win on result accys as usually try to eek out too many teams that I think will outrun their odds. Have more success in the more obscure markets. An example being I thought that VAR would bring a glut of penalties in the World Cup and the bookies would cut the ‘penalty in match’ odds from 100/30 ish to 6/4ish. They did, but not before I had a 4 fold £5 accy that returned £1500. I still do the penalty bets and this season have started doing ‘team to score 2 or more’ accys. Not won on it yet but had some near misses (f@(k you Yeovil). I know it’s only a small selection but last weeks beat the bookie saw nearly a quarter of the betting slips on the betting shop floor before the 3 o clocks had kicked off as Man City failed to beat wolves in the early game.
I'd say I win about 1 in every 10 bets - never stake more than £5 and odds are usually minimum 30-1. Like any form of gambling you go on bad runs and sometimes you go on good runs,. As I've said in the past though I aint in it to make my fortune or anything it's just a bit of fun for me.
That is phenomenal if you’re achieving it over a sustained period. 10 bets @ £5 = £50 outlay. 1 return @ 30/1 = £155.
prefer the horses myself and generally make a fair bit on them, football bets on the other hand i have a much lower stake as i have no where near the fortune.
started this season doing a
3-4 team acca £5.00 stake usually something around 9/1 10 fold acca 50p stake btts and ft 5 teams 50p stake 10 random games btts £2.00 stake
been close a few times on btts the other week was 2 goals away from 572.35
as the beat the bookie comp shows us how hard it is to pick winners - i have had 2 wins and 1 loss each week.
Yes, the stake per bet is probably three to five times what it was, but really it's still buttons.
@IdleHans I am thinking while i essentially have free money, to do your suggestion with initial stake £10 on singles, £10 treble. will let you know how i get on and will have a couple of chances to see if its worthwhile.
Not betting but was 1 goal away from Soccer 6 on Tuesday.
Had Soton 1- 0 West Ham 3-1 Bournemouth 3- 0 Fulham 2-0 Stoke 2-0
and F'ing WEst Brom 2-1. I needed someone to hold me and tell me everything would be alright. only saving grace was West Brom FT came in before Stoke goal or it would have made it worse.
Not betting but was 1 goal away from Soccer 6 on Tuesday.
Had Soton 1- 0 West Ham 3-1 Bournemouth 3- 0 Fulham 2-0 Stoke 2-0
and F'ing WEst Brom 2-1. I needed someone to hold me and tell me everything would be alright. only saving grace was West Brom FT came in before Stoke goal or it would have made it worse.
wow unlucky, imagine being 4 people who won on Saturday and they got bang on but lost on golden goal rule, seems a bit harsh / gutting.
just put on treble weekend: Chelsea Barnsley Sunderland looks formality...
Not betting but was 1 goal away from Soccer 6 on Tuesday.
Had Soton 1- 0 West Ham 3-1 Bournemouth 3- 0 Fulham 2-0 Stoke 2-0
and F'ing WEst Brom 2-1. I needed someone to hold me and tell me everything would be alright. only saving grace was West Brom FT came in before Stoke goal or it would have made it worse.
wow unlucky, imagine being 4 people who won on Saturday and they got bang on but lost on golden goal rule, seems a bit harsh / gutting.
just put on treble weekend: Chelsea Barnsley Sunderland looks formality...
I would have been out with the GG. I think personally it should be shared like the lottery.
I'd say I win about 1 in every 10 bets - never stake more than £5 and odds are usually minimum 30-1. Like any form of gambling you go on bad runs and sometimes you go on good runs,. As I've said in the past though I aint in it to make my fortune or anything it's just a bit of fun for me.
That is phenomenal if you’re achieving it over a sustained period. 10 bets @ £5 = £50 outlay. 1 return @ 30/1 = £155.
Yeah thinking about it it's probably more like 1 in 20 in the last year - although I had a very good run in the last 6 weeks of last season which is probably what's skewed my memory - had 4 wins in about 6 weeks. I don't always put a fiver on for every bet either I've had some 30-40 pound wins from quid or two quid bets.
I'd really be interested to know the actual numbers rather than my perception of them -got a feeling I'm actually doing a lot worse than I think I am.
I'd say I win about 1 in every 10 bets - never stake more than £5 and odds are usually minimum 30-1. Like any form of gambling you go on bad runs and sometimes you go on good runs,. As I've said in the past though I aint in it to make my fortune or anything it's just a bit of fun for me.
That is phenomenal if you’re achieving it over a sustained period. 10 bets @ £5 = £50 outlay. 1 return @ 30/1 = £155.
Yeah thinking about it it's probably more like 1 in 20 in the last year - although I had a very good run in the last 6 weeks of last season which is probably what's skewed my memory - had 4 wins in about 6 weeks. I don't always put a fiver on for every bet either I've had some 30-40 pound wins from quid or two quid bets.
I'd really be interested to know the actual numbers rather than my perception of them -got a feeling I'm actually doing a lot worse than I think I am.
Simple do what I do, simple spreadsheet and update weekly !
I'd say I win about 1 in every 10 bets - never stake more than £5 and odds are usually minimum 30-1. Like any form of gambling you go on bad runs and sometimes you go on good runs,. As I've said in the past though I aint in it to make my fortune or anything it's just a bit of fun for me.
That is phenomenal if you’re achieving it over a sustained period. 10 bets @ £5 = £50 outlay. 1 return @ 30/1 = £155.
Yeah thinking about it it's probably more like 1 in 20 in the last year - although I had a very good run in the last 6 weeks of last season which is probably what's skewed my memory - had 4 wins in about 6 weeks. I don't always put a fiver on for every bet either I've had some 30-40 pound wins from quid or two quid bets.
I'd really be interested to know the actual numbers rather than my perception of them -got a feeling I'm actually doing a lot worse than I think I am.
I did think when i read you winning 1 in 10 bets is pretty decent.
This is the thing, people always remember the wins and not the losses.
Personally i kind of know as i will bet £10/£15 a week, but when i win i will keep money in there and withdraw. essentially freerolling myself until i hit £0 again then i will top up that weekend, i think its a controlled way of doing it and every week i am playing with free money in my head i have saved the weekly outlay
I used to be the same with poker (dont play as much) used to win quite a bit, but was always playing with free money as i would win £1k+ , withdraw 900 - get back up to £1k , rinse repeat. Dont play as much these days due to being busier but still play here and there just not as big results because i dont play enough.
thought i was going to land 2 bets last night but reading could not score unfortunately wankers
btts accross all 4 league cup games 12.75/1
and a treble on btts and match result
milllwall everton watford
31.74/1
cheers reading
Ughhhh unlucky, immediately thought good bet but then realised you had BTTS too.
@guinnessaddick that is sickening, the audacity of the bet though...
@IdleHans I think you are spot on here with a good method, personally i wasn't going to bet much start of season but as done ok have just kept betting. When you first started singles/treble how much was initial stake out of interest? i think i could probably pick a treble most weeks.
Inital stake was a couple of quid on the treble and a couple on each single. No point doing doubles - if you get one wrong you have two losing bets out of three, if you get them all right the treble wins anyway. Get two right and you should just about break even, depending on the odds you choose, of course.
I have a betvictor account and a bet365 account - I was running the old long accy system on 365 and the trebles and occasional largish singles on mispriced matches on BV. The balance in BV went up, the balance on 365 went down over about half a season. Becasue i like the 365 app and odds better I moved half the cash out of BV and topped up 365, and have been running trebles most weeks since. The 22-1 that came in a couple of weeks ago was fortunate in that the odds were so good - normally about 8-1, but still better than getting 8/9 right on a short odds accy. Theres always one that lets you down. Normally Ipswich.
thought i was going to land 2 bets last night but reading could not score unfortunately wankers
btts accross all 4 league cup games 12.75/1
and a treble on btts and match result
milllwall everton watford
31.74/1
cheers reading
Ughhhh unlucky, immediately thought good bet but then realised you had BTTS too.
@guinnessaddick that is sickening, the audacity of the bet though...
@IdleHans I think you are spot on here with a good method, personally i wasn't going to bet much start of season but as done ok have just kept betting. When you first started singles/treble how much was initial stake out of interest? i think i could probably pick a treble most weeks.
Inital stake was a couple of quid on the treble and a couple on each single. No point doing doubles - if you get one wrong you have two losing bets out of three, if you get them all right the treble wins anyway. Get two right and you should just about break even, depending on the odds you choose, of course.
I have a betvictor account and a bet365 account - I was running the old long accy system on 365 and the trebles and occasional largish singles on mispriced matches on BV. The balance in BV went up, the balance on 365 went down over about half a season. Becasue i like the 365 app and odds better I moved half the cash out of BV and topped up 365, and have been running trebles most weeks since. The 22-1 that came in a couple of weeks ago was fortunate in that the odds were so good - normally about 8-1, but still better than getting 8/9 right on a short odds accy. Theres always one that lets you down. Normally Ipswich.
I like your methods here Idle, i did think wasn't sure on value of singles unless do those seperate eg. where i think priced wrong. Treble this week £10, returns £27, so as long as i am winning 2/3 times similar odds i will be doing well, essentially 1/3 will just break even. Will still have my other bets on the side but will keep a record how i am doing in trebles as i think this will be profitable in the long run, obviously i am backing myself to miss the banana skin bankers
Do you look for a individuals odds in a specific range? ie. is there an odds level you view / value as 'too short' and don't include?
Do you percentage scale your stake between the single and the treble? ie. if you had a total stake of £10, and 3 individual games at 4/7, 11/10, 2/1 how would you look to split it?
Do you look for a individuals odds in a specific range? ie. is there an odds level you view / value as 'too short' and don't include?
Do you percentage scale your stake between the single and the treble? ie. if you had a total stake of £10, and 3 individual games at 4/7, 11/10, 2/1 how would you look to split it?
I'm going to give this a go btw
Yes, a treble and singles and I tend to put the same stake on each line as I cant be bothered to do the calculations, though if I were serious I know i should. My Saturday morning routine is to go into the cafe directly across the road (I bought this house for a reason!), order the small full english and a large mocha, and wade slowly through the fixture list. But I don't balance out the stakes according to the odds in excel like a pro probably would, largely because its small stakes and I am inherently lazy.
I steer clear of stupidly short odds as theres little point, so for example 1/3 or shorter wont get a look in. But after a quick glance just at League one tomorrow I like the look of Sunderland at home to Oxford at 1/2, Portsmouth vs Plymouth at 4/5 and I'm cautiously tempted by Peterborough vs Doncaster at 6/5.
So if two out of three are right worst it would do with a £1per line stake is return £3.30, best return £4. All three right returns £11.44 if Ive done my sums right. Not spectacular by any means, but slow and steady wins the race.
By the way, I will probably do this now as Ive picked it out and will be annoyed if it comes in, but it likely wouldnt otherwise be my selection, and I'll look properly before I decide.
On the plus side, Ive been running my BV and 365 accounts for about 15-20 years and each balance is about 10-12 times the initial stake, but I've never made enough profit to make a withdrawal worthwhile. Also I am crap at beat the bookie, so take everything I suggest with massive amounts of salt.
Might as well wade in with my best advice as a "former" professional bettor/tipster turned trader with his assets all tied up elsewhere now! Betting is profitable but not to the mass casuals, and even to the pro's/those with a very patient outlook to the game - it can make you feel a fool and that's down to variance. The best bets can lose and worst bets can win, luck is involved but systems need time to show their true expected results. Do not underestimate the vast effect variance can have, your mate that brags about winning 20 bets in a row? If he's been doing it for years I guarantee he's had the same length streak, but a losing one (most probably hasn't told anyone of this).
There are plenty of positives to being a punter that the casual masses dismiss, they perhaps don't outweigh the negatives but they are quite important. Bettors are not forced to take bets, they can wait and snipe. The bookmaker is essentially 'obliged' in a sense to offer the masses of football they do, a punter can be as patient as they like to take out the weak prices. If they are quick with team news, or information (unrest within a team, financial problems in certain leagues causing issues etc.). Bonuses are another, usually taken away if you know what you are doing, at least in the form of a limitation, but they can also be utilised. Bonus scalping being one.
If you want to bet for real value, you need to go outside of what you naturally know - because what you naturally know everyone else will probably know also and the bookmakers even more so with hard to comprehend databases and modelling systems. Now, drop down into obscure leagues and you'll start to get near to sniffing out an edge, games where the team news isn't plastered all over widely watched National TV etc. Time is a huge standpoint also, the syndicates (Starlizard etc.) will wade into a 'weak' price very early, perhaps the Monday before for a weekend game, now come Thurs/Fri the price is probably very close to the 'true' expected value.
Corners a fantastic starting point if you fancy yourself to grind out a profit betting, a little funner, at least in my eyes, and open to your opinion quite heavily to be able to try and find an edge. Certain formations and managerial styles for over/under corners, team corners for certain teams on how you think the game will pan out etc etc. Good luck all.
Thanks @Atletico Addick, your insight is very welcomed by those of us stumbling about in the dark.
I have often found that the more effort I put in to examining recent form and a bit of team news the better the returns. When I just go with gut the returns shrink to nothing, so its worth putting some effort in.
Occasionally you do come across something that seems obviously awry - I'd even use the example of CAFC's chances this season, where the bookies had us much more likely to be promoted than relegated. My relegation bet is now slightly in the money in cash-out, and I think in pre-season bookies often just go with big names as favourites. In league one at least we're still just about one of those, but the Roland turmoil didn't seem factored in.
You find odd examples of that scattered about the fixture list, and I tend to go heavy on those when I see them. Just as likely to be in France or Germany as the UK, but I like the lower leagues mainly for that little advantage.
Might as well wade in with my best advice as a "former" professional bettor/tipster turned trader with his assets all tied up elsewhere now! Betting is profitable but not to the mass casuals, and even to the pro's/those with a very patient outlook to the game - it can make you feel a fool and that's down to variance. The best bets can lose and worst bets can win, luck is involved but systems need time to show their true expected results. Do not underestimate the vast effect variance can have, your mate that brags about winning 20 bets in a row? If he's been doing it for years I guarantee he's had the same length streak, but a losing one (most probably hasn't told anyone of this).
There are plenty of positives to being a punter that the casual masses dismiss, they perhaps don't outweigh the negatives but they are quite important. Bettors are not forced to take bets, they can wait and snipe. The bookmaker is essentially 'obliged' in a sense to offer the masses of football they do, a punter can be as patient as they like to take out the weak prices. If they are quick with team news, or information (unrest within a team, financial problems in certain leagues causing issues etc.). Bonuses are another, usually taken away if you know what you are doing, at least in the form of a limitation, but they can also be utilised. Bonus scalping being one.
If you want to bet for real value, you need to go outside of what you naturally know - because what you naturally know everyone else will probably know also and the bookmakers even more so with hard to comprehend databases and modelling systems. Now, drop down into obscure leagues and you'll start to get near to sniffing out an edge, games where the team news isn't plastered all over widely watched National TV etc. Time is a huge standpoint also, the syndicates (Starlizard etc.) will wade into a 'weak' price very early, perhaps the Monday before for a weekend game, now come Thurs/Fri the price is probably very close to the 'true' expected value.
Corners a fantastic starting point if you fancy yourself to grind out a profit betting, a little funner, at least in my eyes, and open to your opinion quite heavily to be able to try and find an edge. Certain formations and managerial styles for over/under corners, team corners for certain teams on how you think the game will pan out etc etc. Good luck all.
Good post, i know a bit of this from when i used to play alot of poker and have a group of poker friends. Your average punter will not understand terms 'EV' - Expected value , also variance (basically the more you do something getting the right result) flip a coin 10 times note down if heads or tales you could get more than 50% , its very likely... do it 100 times you will be closer but still not accurate, in most samples especially in poker you need to play 100,000 hands and even then it might not be reflective, eg. the terms running bad/running good
Comments
97 min goal cost him.
btts accross all 4 league cup games 12.75/1
and a treble on btts and match result
milllwall
everton
watford
31.74/1
cheers reading
I had PSV, Benefica and Forest to win and btts
And btts to score four fold with the above and Everton game.
I am still fuming
@guinnessaddick that is sickening, the audacity of the bet though...
@IdleHans I think you are spot on here with a good method, personally i wasn't going to bet much start of season but as done ok have just kept betting. When you first started singles/treble how much was initial stake out of interest? i think i could probably pick a treble most weeks.
This thread and @paulbaconsarnie has seriously exposed me how difficult it is and how much it’s weighted in the bookies favour. If you take the Predictions Com, if we have such a poor record in picking just three results, what chance have 5-6 teams accys really got?
Have more success in the more obscure markets. An example being I thought that VAR would bring a glut of penalties in the World Cup and the bookies would cut the ‘penalty in match’ odds from 100/30 ish to 6/4ish.
They did, but not before I had a 4 fold £5 accy that returned £1500.
I still do the penalty bets and this season have started doing ‘team to score 2 or more’ accys.
Not won on it yet but had some near misses (f@(k you Yeovil).
I know it’s only a small selection but last weeks beat the bookie saw nearly a quarter of the betting slips on the betting shop floor before the 3 o clocks had kicked off as Man City failed to beat wolves in the early game.
10 bets @ £5 = £50 outlay.
1 return @ 30/1 = £155.
started this season doing a
3-4 team acca £5.00 stake usually something around 9/1
10 fold acca 50p stake
btts and ft 5 teams 50p stake
10 random games btts £2.00 stake
been close a few times on btts the other week was 2 goals away from 572.35
as the beat the bookie comp shows us how hard it is to pick winners - i have had 2 wins and 1 loss each week.
I am thinking while i essentially have free money, to do your suggestion with initial stake £10 on singles, £10 treble. will let you know how i get on and will have a couple of chances to see if its worthwhile.
Had
Soton 1- 0
West Ham 3-1
Bournemouth 3- 0
Fulham 2-0
Stoke 2-0
and F'ing WEst Brom 2-1. I needed someone to hold me and tell me everything would be alright. only saving grace was West Brom FT came in before Stoke goal or it would have made it worse.
just put on treble weekend:
Chelsea
Barnsley
Sunderland
looks formality...
I'd really be interested to know the actual numbers rather than my perception of them -got a feeling I'm actually doing a lot worse than I think I am.
This is the thing, people always remember the wins and not the losses.
Personally i kind of know as i will bet £10/£15 a week, but when i win i will keep money in there and withdraw. essentially freerolling myself until i hit £0 again then i will top up that weekend, i think its a controlled way of doing it and every week i am playing with free money in my head i have saved the weekly outlay
I used to be the same with poker (dont play as much) used to win quite a bit, but was always playing with free money as i would win £1k+ , withdraw 900 - get back up to £1k , rinse repeat. Dont play as much these days due to being busier but still play here and there just not as big results because i dont play enough.
I have a betvictor account and a bet365 account - I was running the old long accy system on 365 and the trebles and occasional largish singles on mispriced matches on BV. The balance in BV went up, the balance on 365 went down over about half a season. Becasue i like the 365 app and odds better I moved half the cash out of BV and topped up 365, and have been running trebles most weeks since. The 22-1 that came in a couple of weeks ago was fortunate in that the odds were so good - normally about 8-1, but still better than getting 8/9 right on a short odds accy. Theres always one that lets you down. Normally Ipswich.
pick 3 games, bet 3 singles and one treble?
Do you look for a individuals odds in a specific range? ie. is there an odds level you view / value as 'too short' and don't include?
Do you percentage scale your stake between the single and the treble? ie. if you had a total stake of £10, and 3 individual games at 4/7, 11/10, 2/1 how would you look to split it?
I'm going to give this a go btw
I steer clear of stupidly short odds as theres little point, so for example 1/3 or shorter wont get a look in.
But after a quick glance just at League one tomorrow I like the look of Sunderland at home to Oxford at 1/2, Portsmouth vs Plymouth at 4/5 and I'm cautiously tempted by Peterborough vs Doncaster at 6/5.
So if two out of three are right worst it would do with a £1per line stake is return £3.30, best return £4. All three right returns £11.44 if Ive done my sums right.
Not spectacular by any means, but slow and steady wins the race.
By the way, I will probably do this now as Ive picked it out and will be annoyed if it comes in, but it likely wouldnt otherwise be my selection, and I'll look properly before I decide.
On the plus side, Ive been running my BV and 365 accounts for about 15-20 years and each balance is about 10-12 times the initial stake, but I've never made enough profit to make a withdrawal worthwhile. Also I am crap at beat the bookie, so take everything I suggest with massive amounts of salt.
There are plenty of positives to being a punter that the casual masses dismiss, they perhaps don't outweigh the negatives but they are quite important. Bettors are not forced to take bets, they can wait and snipe. The bookmaker is essentially 'obliged' in a sense to offer the masses of football they do, a punter can be as patient as they like to take out the weak prices. If they are quick with team news, or information (unrest within a team, financial problems in certain leagues causing issues etc.). Bonuses are another, usually taken away if you know what you are doing, at least in the form of a limitation, but they can also be utilised. Bonus scalping being one.
If you want to bet for real value, you need to go outside of what you naturally know - because what you naturally know everyone else will probably know also and the bookmakers even more so with hard to comprehend databases and modelling systems. Now, drop down into obscure leagues and you'll start to get near to sniffing out an edge, games where the team news isn't plastered all over widely watched National TV etc. Time is a huge standpoint also, the syndicates (Starlizard etc.) will wade into a 'weak' price very early, perhaps the Monday before for a weekend game, now come Thurs/Fri the price is probably very close to the 'true' expected value.
Corners a fantastic starting point if you fancy yourself to grind out a profit betting, a little funner, at least in my eyes, and open to your opinion quite heavily to be able to try and find an edge. Certain formations and managerial styles for over/under corners, team corners for certain teams on how you think the game will pan out etc etc.
Good luck all.
I have often found that the more effort I put in to examining recent form and a bit of team news the better the returns. When I just go with gut the returns shrink to nothing, so its worth putting some effort in.
Occasionally you do come across something that seems obviously awry - I'd even use the example of CAFC's chances this season, where the bookies had us much more likely to be promoted than relegated. My relegation bet is now slightly in the money in cash-out, and I think in pre-season bookies often just go with big names as favourites. In league one at least we're still just about one of those, but the Roland turmoil didn't seem factored in.
You find odd examples of that scattered about the fixture list, and I tend to go heavy on those when I see them. Just as likely to be in France or Germany as the UK, but I like the lower leagues mainly for that little advantage.