No, not another band made up of CL quotes.
At the recent Bromley Addicks meeting Lee Bowyer said that he breaks down the season into nine game sections.
He also said that to gain automatic promotion Charlton would need to be "in the 90s" pointswise
LB expects to get six wins or maybe five wins and two draws from each nine game block. That equates to 18 or 17 points respectively.
There would be five of these nine game blocks in a season (5 x 9 = 45) so 18 points in each would mean 90 points.
The sharp eyed among you will have noted that there are 46 games in the season so that last game (Gillingham away) is a bonus ball.
So far we've P7 W3 D2 L2 and so have 11 points. Wins in our next two games will give us the minimum requirement of five wins and two draws with 17 points. Not ideal but early days and the squad is still coming together (and still picking up injuries but we digress).
But is 90 points enough?
Last season 2nd place Blackburn has 96 points and third place Shrewsbury 87 (we got 71 to finish 6th)
In previous years the figures for second and third were:
2nd 3rd
2016/7 86 82
2015/6 85 84
2014/5 91 89
2013/4 94 86
2012/3 83 79
2011/2 93 90 (Champions had 101 points that year)
So Bowyer seems to have it statistically right. Getting into the 90s would have been enough for automatic promotion more seasons than not. Often 90 points was enough for the title.
All he's got to do now, as Steve Gallen pointed out, is win games.
See you after the Plymouth game for an update when the first nine game block has been completed.
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As for this season I think it'll get to the point where a lot of sides will beat each other which'll keep it a lot tighter
I think Sunderland will do a Blackburn once all the new players are integrated and legacy issues sorted.
No reason why we can't finish top 6 minimum and take it from there. I think we have a better team and more flexibility in the squad than last season.
Sunderland and Peterborough have only faced Charlton in terms of sides who were being tipped to finish in the top six this season and you have to argue that neither deserved to beat us based on where the winning goals came from - Yes Sunderland beat Scunthorpe 3-0 yet that was before the latter had their manager sacked
Same with Portsmouth and Barnsley, you have to look at their results at the moment and question if they've truly been tested yet - Ultimately think there will be another Fleetwood or Shrewsbury up in the Play-Offs again this year so unfortunately cant rule out at least one of Fleetwood | Walsall | Doncaster sticking around in the long term
Edit: What looks fun is when Sunderland face Peterborough and Portsmouth, second league facings are:
22nd April: Peterborough v Sunderland
27th April: Sunderland v Portsmouth
No idea if Lee see's it that way or not.
Will be interesting to see how we are matching up, but we will look at the bigger picture on a result by result basis. We should make top 6 with this squad and be stronger than last season.
IMO still far too early to predict anything.
Teams need to play 15 games, and then the table starts to set a pattern.
Anything else right now is just plain guesswork based on well, nothing really.
Shooters Hill Guru would be right, we'd go up as Champions!
After Plymouth we're:
P9 W5 D2 L2
Lee's target is six wins from each nine game block or five wins and two draws as a minimum.
So we're on target, just.
The last four games have all been wins so we're in form going into the next nine.
Luton (A)
Scunthorpe (A)
Coventry (H)
Walsall (A)*
Barnsley (H)
Oxford (H)
Rochdale (A)
Doncaster (H)
Portsmouth (A)
* Possible postponement due to international call ups
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Just squeeze to 18 points
It's a pretty shit division and i can't see the likes of Pompey, Peterborough, Sunderland and Barnsley losing too many games. After the first batch of 9 games, they've lost 3 games between them.
So 92 points should be enough.
I think 27 wins is what you need to get automatic. If we take it in the 9 game blocks, then 5 wins and 2 draws in 2 of them = 34. 6 wins and 1 draw in the other 3 = 57, making 91. This is without the final game
5 wins and 2 draws is absolutely fine as solid top 6 contenders, but you're not going to run away with the league with it only equating to 86/87 points.