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Betting Thread 19/20

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  • Sickening. 
  • usually do a silly over 2.5 goals acca 

    this week was 2 goals away from 4.5k off of 50p

    west ham and bristol city being the 2 games that cost me. 
  • Wolves are 2/1 to beat Man U tonight. I fancy that
  • I've just stuck £100 on us to avoid relegation @2/9 on Paddy Power.
  • I've just stuck £100 on us to avoid relegation @2/9 on Paddy Power.
    £100 to win £22 ?  If you left it in the bank it would gain half that in the same time?
  • I've just stuck £100 on us to avoid relegation @2/9 on Paddy Power.
    £100 to win £22 ?  If you left it in the bank it would gain half that in the same time?
    There are savings accounts paying 11% interest per year?! If so then myself and my mates will gladly combine our bankrolls and lump on lol
  • PaddyP17 said:
    I've just stuck £100 on us to avoid relegation @2/9 on Paddy Power.
    £100 to win £22 ?  If you left it in the bank it would gain half that in the same time?
    There are savings accounts paying 11% interest per year?! If so then myself and my mates will gladly combine our bankrolls and lump on lol
    OK it was a little tongue in cheek but with long term bets you have to consider loss of interest and your £100 is sitting with the bookie for around 9 / 10 months.  

    For £22 doesn't seem worth it
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  • PaddyP17 said:
    I've just stuck £100 on us to avoid relegation @2/9 on Paddy Power.
    £100 to win £22 ?  If you left it in the bank it would gain half that in the same time?
    There are savings accounts paying 11% interest per year?! If so then myself and my mates will gladly combine our bankrolls and lump on lol
    OK it was a little tongue in cheek but with long term bets you have to consider loss of interest and your £100 is sitting with the bookie for around 9 / 10 months.  

    For £22 doesn't seem worth it
    But you're ignoring the enjoyment value of beating the bookies, which you can't put a price on :-)
  • edited August 2019
    Woking seem generously priced to beat Solihull at home on saturday. Both sides won 4 out of 5 so far, but 19/4 is worth a small punt as a single.
  • Several near misses at the weekend inc £1 to win £400, didn't stake over £10 but one of those so close but yet so far :) nearly a treble correct score. Hopefully a good sign for the next few weeks :)
  • Baby Beckham to score anytime v Forest 4/1 with Unibet.
    Get on it.
  • Baby Beckham to score anytime v Forest 4/1 with Unibet.
    Get on it.

    Sorry who is Baby Beckham?
  • Baby Beckham to score anytime v Forest 4/1 with Unibet.
    Get on it.

    Sorry who is Baby Beckham?
    Gallagher.
  • Baby Beckham to score anytime v Forest 4/1 with Unibet.
    Get on it.

    Sorry who is Baby Beckham?
    Leko
    Lekham
  • Looking objectively at tonight's Championship card:

    - Avoid Cardiff-Huddersfield markets (midweek + no manager for Hudds means too much uncertainty and bookies have probably priced too well)

    - Charlton are value at 2/1 win (bookies currently ignoring our early season form because of prior unrest at the club). If I wasn't a Charlton fan then this would be my nap bet haha.

    - Fulham-Millwall BTTS - No @ 10/11 is probably best bet out of that game, but a game to avoid.

    - Leeds and BTTS @ 2/1 looks a passable bet.

    - Preston-Stoke overrounds are pretty stingy and would avoid betting.

    - I think Swansea beat QPR, and 15/8 isn't that bad. Would be a small poke, nothing major.

    - West Brom win to nil @ 15/8 similar to Swansea/QPR above - not that bad, not a big poke though.

    Acca with the above selections is 140/1. 

    10x £1 trebles, if the shortest three all come in then a total £10 returns a minimum of £15.78, which is a decent 57.8% ROI.

    But however one wants to play it, I dunno. Don't really football bet often, but these look the best ones for me tonight.
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  • West Brom you fucking pricks!!!!
  • PaddyP17 said:
    Looking objectively at tonight's Championship card:

    - Avoid Cardiff-Huddersfield markets (midweek + no manager for Hudds means too much uncertainty and bookies have probably priced too well)

    - Charlton are value at 2/1 win (bookies currently ignoring our early season form because of prior unrest at the club). If I wasn't a Charlton fan then this would be my nap bet haha.

    - Fulham-Millwall BTTS - No @ 10/11 is probably best bet out of that game, but a game to avoid.

    - Leeds and BTTS @ 2/1 looks a passable bet.

    - Preston-Stoke overrounds are pretty stingy and would avoid betting.

    - I think Swansea beat QPR, and 15/8 isn't that bad. Would be a small poke, nothing major.

    - West Brom win to nil @ 15/8 similar to Swansea/QPR above - not that bad, not a big poke though.

    Acca with the above selections is 140/1. 

    10x £1 trebles, if the shortest three all come in then a total £10 returns a minimum of £15.78, which is a decent 57.8% ROI.

    But however one wants to play it, I dunno. Don't really football bet often, but these look the best ones for me tonight.

    Great write up there Paddy, although on the face of it midweek syndrome hit and you were not very near. If I had read before the games I definitely would have taken some of this advice. Now for Saturdays? @paddyp17
  • PaddyP17 said:
    Looking objectively at tonight's Championship card:

    - Avoid Cardiff-Huddersfield markets (midweek + no manager for Hudds means too much uncertainty and bookies have probably priced too well)

    - Charlton are value at 2/1 win (bookies currently ignoring our early season form because of prior unrest at the club). If I wasn't a Charlton fan then this would be my nap bet haha.

    - Fulham-Millwall BTTS - No @ 10/11 is probably best bet out of that game, but a game to avoid.

    - Leeds and BTTS @ 2/1 looks a passable bet.

    - Preston-Stoke overrounds are pretty stingy and would avoid betting.

    - I think Swansea beat QPR, and 15/8 isn't that bad. Would be a small poke, nothing major.

    - West Brom win to nil @ 15/8 similar to Swansea/QPR above - not that bad, not a big poke though.

    Acca with the above selections is 140/1. 

    10x £1 trebles, if the shortest three all come in then a total £10 returns a minimum of £15.78, which is a decent 57.8% ROI.

    But however one wants to play it, I dunno. Don't really football bet often, but these look the best ones for me tonight.

    Great write up there Paddy, although on the face of it midweek syndrome hit and you were not very near. If I had read before the games I definitely would have taken some of this advice. Now for Saturdays? @paddyp17
    Cheers Johnny. Yeah only got 2/5 but considering there's a case to be made that Charlton should've won, not too far off. Leeds winning was half-right, but obviously that's immaterial.

    I'll have a look at where the value might be at the weekend, coupled with any shrewd info I can get out of the bookies themselves! 
  • PaddyP17 said:
    PaddyP17 said:
    Looking objectively at tonight's Championship card:

    - Avoid Cardiff-Huddersfield markets (midweek + no manager for Hudds means too much uncertainty and bookies have probably priced too well)

    - Charlton are value at 2/1 win (bookies currently ignoring our early season form because of prior unrest at the club). If I wasn't a Charlton fan then this would be my nap bet haha.

    - Fulham-Millwall BTTS - No @ 10/11 is probably best bet out of that game, but a game to avoid.

    - Leeds and BTTS @ 2/1 looks a passable bet.

    - Preston-Stoke overrounds are pretty stingy and would avoid betting.

    - I think Swansea beat QPR, and 15/8 isn't that bad. Would be a small poke, nothing major.

    - West Brom win to nil @ 15/8 similar to Swansea/QPR above - not that bad, not a big poke though.

    Acca with the above selections is 140/1. 

    10x £1 trebles, if the shortest three all come in then a total £10 returns a minimum of £15.78, which is a decent 57.8% ROI.

    But however one wants to play it, I dunno. Don't really football bet often, but these look the best ones for me tonight.

    Great write up there Paddy, although on the face of it midweek syndrome hit and you were not very near. If I had read before the games I definitely would have taken some of this advice. Now for Saturdays? @paddyp17
    Cheers Johnny. Yeah only got 2/5 but considering there's a case to be made that Charlton should've won, not too far off. Leeds winning was half-right, but obviously that's immaterial.

    I'll have a look at where the value might be at the weekend, coupled with any shrewd info I can get out of the bookies themselves! 

    Results are irrelevant sometimes, football is a funny game so its about making good bets. Hence why I said post more like this, like your horse racing tips this is very well thought out and for anyone unsure it could help. I assume you do semi ok in most forms of betting
  • I've had a poor calendar year this year to be fair, salvaged only by Cheltenham Festival returns that have put me at break even. Football betting really isn't something I'm that into and it's a very well-covered market the higher the level. There is so much value in League One and below in the UK, and pretty much anything below top flight abroad, if you know what to look for (which I'll be the first to admit I don't really).
  • edited August 2019
    PaddyP17 said:
    I've had a poor calendar year this year to be fair, salvaged only by Cheltenham Festival returns that have put me at break even. Football betting really isn't something I'm that into and it's a very well-covered market the higher the level. There is so much value in League One and below in the UK, and pretty much anything below top flight abroad, if you know what to look for (which I'll be the first to admit I don't really).

    I agree, football is very hard unless you do your research which I don't either. The last couple of seasons I have made small profits, every other season I have always been a loser (betting before anyone says lol) I have slightly changed tactic and tend to just go a bit harder with winnings to spin up, a lot of it I am just relying on my own knowledge of the game and recent form I don't look into it at all.

    I think of it similar to poker (which I don't play much anymore, busy but used to profit well every year). Try and spot value/ good bets, but still that might not win but overtime it should show a profit if you are making good bets. I watched that how to beat the books the other week and that was really interesting, although still shows how tough it is to gain an edge on the bookies.

    It always amazes me how much the bookies get it right even things like Charlton at home 2/1 the weekend, if I wasn't Charlton I would think that's great value like last night, but they got away with it last night and well see this weekend.

    PS- Poker metaphor is crap just read back, in poker its get in ahead / or as dominant % as you can and over time you should make money, as we know it takes years/ 100,000 hands to even test this and even then you can be unlucky/ running bad

  • I I think the 21/10 about us to beat Brentford is good value.  If this was Forest at home to Brentford they would be 11/10. Brentford 4 point from 4 games... Scored 2 conceded 3.  So expect it to be tight, but we carry a constant goal threat. 

    Iv taken the 21/10. 
  • I I think the 21/10 about us to beat Brentford is good value.  If this was Forest at home to Brentford they would be 11/10. Brentford 4 point from 4 games... Scored 2 conceded 3.  So expect it to be tight, but we carry a constant goal threat. 

    Iv taken the 21/10. 

    Agree, we still aren't getting the credit with the bookies. However I don't bet on Charlton, but hope you win!
  • 7/1 on the South London treble. The knuckle-dragging, unwashed gaggle of ex-cons and wannabe hooligans are away to Middlesbrough, and the acne-ridden, weirdly-dressed Bacardi Breezer-drinking virgins are away at Old Trafford. 
  • Skyboost good value this week (in my opinion), bet responsibly...

    6/1- Man U to beat Palace at Home

    Fulham to beat Notts Forrest at Home

    Leicester to beat Sheffield Away

    The only one I think which is not a banker (cue all losing!) is Leicester away, although Sheffield United did get a win against Palars they didn't really put up much of a fight, surely Leicester will have more quality and should be reasonable value to win away. Still not formality as promotion/ at home feel good factor but still on paper Leicester should be beating sides like this away from home.

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Roland Out!