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Betting Thread 19/20

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  • PaddyP17 said:
    Right. There appears to be something to exploit in the FGS market on 365 for France-Andorra tonight. 

    It appears market expectancy is about 5 goals - thus making 4/5/6-0 all value Correct Score bets.

    However, 365 are 1/3 odds, UNLIMITED places on first goalscorer bets. This means any player who scores at FGS odds of 3/1 or greater will see a return.

    (NB this is assuming they start: Bets are void if player does not start)

    It looks as if any of Giroud, Fekir, Coman, Lemar - and those obviously at bigger odds - score any time then you're making money (obviously you lose some value if they score more than once).

    So, I reckon Kingsley Coman FGS, each way @ 11/2 therefore looks like great value. Everyone else looks decent enough value too. Hope this reads how I think it does but if I'm mistaken, let me know.

    Im kind off confused :P it doesn't take much, its been a long day!
    Basically the each way terms on "First Goalscorer" are really beneficial to bettors. We get 1/3 odds on unlimited "places" (i.e. number of goals scored).

    So if France win 5-0, that's five potential different goalscorers.

    Betting on Coman @ 11/2 means a return of £28.33 off £20 (£10 e/w) if he scores any time, or a return of £93.33 if he scores first.

    Does that make sense?

    ----------------------

    Also, I'm saying this market is only good now because of the mismatch between France and Andorra, and the amount of goals expected.
  • PaddyP17 said:
    PaddyP17 said:
    Right. There appears to be something to exploit in the FGS market on 365 for France-Andorra tonight. 

    It appears market expectancy is about 5 goals - thus making 4/5/6-0 all value Correct Score bets.

    However, 365 are 1/3 odds, UNLIMITED places on first goalscorer bets. This means any player who scores at FGS odds of 3/1 or greater will see a return.

    (NB this is assuming they start: Bets are void if player does not start)

    It looks as if any of Giroud, Fekir, Coman, Lemar - and those obviously at bigger odds - score any time then you're making money (obviously you lose some value if they score more than once).

    So, I reckon Kingsley Coman FGS, each way @ 11/2 therefore looks like great value. Everyone else looks decent enough value too. Hope this reads how I think it does but if I'm mistaken, let me know.

    Im kind off confused :P it doesn't take much, its been a long day!
    Basically the each way terms on "First Goalscorer" are really beneficial to bettors. We get 1/3 odds on unlimited "places" (i.e. number of goals scored).

    So if France win 5-0, that's five potential different goalscorers.

    Betting on Coman @ 11/2 means a return of £28.33 off £20 (£10 e/w) if he scores any time, or a return of £93.33 if he scores first.

    Does that make sense?

    ----------------------

    Also, I'm saying this market is only good now because of the mismatch between France and Andorra, and the amount of goals expected.

    I understand better now thanks. I don't really bet on internationals in fairness unless a major tournament
  • But a straight bet on Coman anytime is best price 10/11. £28.33 off £20 is effectively a little better than 2/5. Where is the value?
  • Coman 1-0
    good shout @PaddyP17
  • But a straight bet on Coman anytime is best price 10/11. £28.33 off £20 is effectively a little better than 2/5. Where is the value?
    Extra value against weak opponents in case he scores first. (Which he has!) 
  • Having bet on Harry Kane for first goalscorer and to score in both halves it was basically a given that he would score second and miss a penalty. 
  • Uboat said:
    Having bet on Harry Kane for first goalscorer and to score in both halves it was basically a given that he would score second and miss a penalty. 
    After the commentators were raving on Saturday about him being the best penalty taker in the country it is a given that he will miss the next half a dozen he takes...luckily  only one of them will be in an England and it didn’t make a difference to the result of the game
  • PaddyP17 said:
    But a straight bet on Coman anytime is best price 10/11. £28.33 off £20 is effectively a little better than 2/5. Where is the value?
    Extra value against weak opponents in case he scores first. (Which he has!) 
    By the way @Callumcafc please don't take this as a results-orientated comment. 

    Another way to look at it might be you're effectively betting on a "horse race" (first goalscorer is the winner, every other goalscorer is a place). For me, that's better betting than the bet on just a "place" (i.e. goal), because of the potential returns on a winner. 

    And given our each-way terms (in relation to market expectations before the fact) were 1/3 of the odds, up to around 5 goals/places, I thought it better to speculate on FGS rather than going with anytime (which naturally offers better odds) because you still see a decent % return.

    Bit long winded but I think an exploitable market in situations like this.
  • The 11/2 e/w 1/3 odds splits in to two bets. 

    6.5 the win part
    2.833 the place part (aka anytime in this instance)

    The anytime price on its own was 1.91 (10/11), so you were better off placing the bet via the e/w FGS market.  With the added kicker of the win part of the bet.

    If you'd placed two seperate bets on the FGS win only at 6.5, and the anytime at 1.91, you would've been worse off in this instance.

    Effectively you were giving yourself a positive expected value bet via the e/w element of the offer.  The fair prices of first scorer and anytime were 6.5 and 1.91 (in reality a bit bigger but for simplicity say they were).... by betting e/w you got 6.5 and 2.833.

    Keep doing it though and you will incur the wrath of Denise Coates


  • Laid out a tenner in small stake bets last night and the avalanche of goals (especially injury time 3rd goals for France and Czech) meant I got just over a ton return.
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  • Good explanation Nick.
  • The 11/2 e/w 1/3 odds splits in to two bets. 

    6.5 the win part
    2.833 the place part (aka anytime in this instance)

    The anytime price on its own was 1.91 (10/11), so you were better off placing the bet via the e/w FGS market.  With the added kicker of the win part of the bet.

    If you'd placed two seperate bets on the FGS win only at 6.5, and the anytime at 1.91, you would've been worse off in this instance.

    Effectively you were giving yourself a positive expected value bet via the e/w element of the offer.  The fair prices of first scorer and anytime were 6.5 and 1.91 (in reality a bit bigger but for simplicity say they were).... by betting e/w you got 6.5 and 2.833.

    Keep doing it though and you will incur the wrath of Denise Coates


    Cheers. I was thinking it’s a £20 risk for £28.33 gain so odds of 1.41 ish rather than 2.83333 but I see what you and Paddy are saying now.
  • The 11/2 e/w 1/3 odds splits in to two bets. 

    6.5 the win part
    2.833 the place part (aka anytime in this instance)

    The anytime price on its own was 1.91 (10/11), so you were better off placing the bet via the e/w FGS market.  With the added kicker of the win part of the bet.

    If you'd placed two seperate bets on the FGS win only at 6.5, and the anytime at 1.91, you would've been worse off in this instance.

    Effectively you were giving yourself a positive expected value bet via the e/w element of the offer.  The fair prices of first scorer and anytime were 6.5 and 1.91 (in reality a bit bigger but for simplicity say they were).... by betting e/w you got 6.5 and 2.833.

    Keep doing it though and you will incur the wrath of Denise Coates


    Cheers. I was thinking it’s a £20 risk for £28.33 gain so odds of 1.41 ish rather than 2.83333 but I see what you and Paddy are saying now.
    Er... Yeah, what Nick said! (How did I manage not to articulate that in the first place?)
  • Bristol City to win at Joke City 5/2, get on
  • Gone for a BTTS double today
    Leicester and Sheff Utd. 36/1 risky bet
    Also done Wolves, Boro, Lincoln, Oxford 19/1

  • On the surface appears to be some good options today.

    Ipswich, Peterborough, Rotherham Treble
    Exeter, Woking, Swindon Treble and all 6

    Bristol City, Coventry, Wycombe doubles treble and Double chance treble.

    QPR an Charlton double. 
  • I got 11/2 on us to beat Birmingham, BTTS Skybet+

    Also a win treble of Liverpool, Spurs, Ipswich.

    Won Liverpool ahead half time, 5 corners + and Liverpool full time @ 7/4
  • Woking 2 up with ten mins remaining.
    Ebbfleet get a 94th min equaliser.
    sums up my fortune at the moment

  • Bristol City to win at Joke City 5/2, get on
    had a ton on that, happy days
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  • On the surface appears to be some good options today.

    Ipswich, Peterborough, Rotherham Treble
    Exeter, Woking, Swindon Treble and all 6

    Bristol City, Coventry, Wycombe doubles treble and Double chance treble.

    QPR an Charlton double. 
    Key phrase being 'on the surface'. Ipwich have always been one of those bogey teams for my bets, win or lose. I should have known better.
    But good spot on Bristol City - I even topped up at 0-1, so thanks for that.
  • Norwich were  7/4 at 2-0 up on Saturday after 39 minutes in betfreds. Had 40 on to return 110. Crazy price.
  • tajaddick said:
    Norwich were  7/4 at 2-0 up on Saturday after 39 minutes in betfreds. Had 40 on to return 110. Crazy price.
    good bet but I reckon the bookies did well on that game overall, would have busted many a coupon
  • tajaddick said:
    Norwich were  7/4 at 2-0 up on Saturday after 39 minutes in betfreds. Had 40 on to return 110. Crazy price.
    Had a look on the exchange myself. Could’ve got 9/4 minus commission (a little better than 21/10) just after the second goal went in.

    Didn’t take it. Thought it was a weird price but then again they did start at 36/1 and were 9/1 at 1-0...
  • tajaddick said:
    Norwich were  7/4 at 2-0 up on Saturday after 39 minutes in betfreds. Had 40 on to return 110. Crazy price.
    Had a look on the exchange myself. Could’ve got 9/4 minus commission (a little better than 21/10) just after the second goal went in.

    Didn’t take it. Thought it was a weird price but then again they did start at 36/1 and were 9/1 at 1-0...
    I bet the odds went right up again when Aguero scored to make it 2-1. Crazy game and the bookies seem to be doing rather well this season so far. 
  • One for Saturday that looks mispriced to me: Yeovil (12 points from the last 15) away to Solihull Moors (1 point) at odds around 10/3.
  • Bolton outdoing Oxford United so far tonight, looking possible they may get at least their first point. I dont begrudge them, but I thought that one was free money. Gobinson never fails to piss me off.
  • IdleHans said:
    Bolton outdoing Oxford United so far tonight, looking possible they may get at least their first point. I dont begrudge them, but I thought that one was free money. Gobinson never fails to piss me off.
    2nd point

    Drew 3-3 with Coventry 
  • Teach me to do better research
  • Don’t worry, Paulie needs to do better research too. Bolton drew 0-0 with Coventry. Their only two points this season has been 0-0 draws. Robinson masterminding their latest one of course. Playing slow build up play in front of Bolton and not having enough to get in behind and hurt them. 
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