If this much money is now behind the club, why are we looking at players from Bristol Rovers, Peterborough United and Blackpool?
No - I don't expect them to bring in Harry Kane and Ronaldo. But, I'd expect reinforcements from slightly higher up the food chain than those we are being told about.
Roland had more money. He was a billionaire. Tahnoon is worth 500 mil. People speculate his family must be co-funding but every word out of ESI has been that they're not gonna run up masses of wage and transfer debt. Just fans getting excited.
If this much money is now behind the club, why are we looking at players from Bristol Rovers, Peterborough United and Blackpool?
No - I don't expect them to bring in Harry Kane and Ronaldo. But, I'd expect reinforcements from slightly higher up the food chain than those we are being told about.
Roland had more money. He was a billionaire. Tahnoon is worth 500 mil. People speculate his family must be co-funding but every word out of ESI has been that they're not gonna run up masses of wage and transfer debt. Just fans getting excited.
No Roland had £500m in 2014 we don't know how much ESI are worth.
If this much money is now behind the club, why are we looking at players from Bristol Rovers, Peterborough United and Blackpool?
No - I don't expect them to bring in Harry Kane and Ronaldo. But, I'd expect reinforcements from slightly higher up the food chain than those we are being told about.
Roland had more money. He was a billionaire. Tahnoon is worth 500 mil. People speculate his family must be co-funding but every word out of ESI has been that they're not gonna run up masses of wage and transfer debt. Just fans getting excited.
What's the source for Roland being a billionaire in £s? I thought I read somewhere his personal wealth was about 500m Euros.
If this much money is now behind the club, why are we looking at players from Bristol Rovers, Peterborough United and Blackpool?
No - I don't expect them to bring in Harry Kane and Ronaldo. But, I'd expect reinforcements from slightly higher up the food chain than those we are being told about.
Because this isn’t, and never was going to be, a Man City type situation. I think we all got excited that we were getting bought by a Sheikh. We’ve actually been bought by a guy who works for a Sheikh who has enormous personal wealth by any standard, but not that sort of unlimited money that Sheikh Mansoor basically has.
I still think money will be spent, I might just have been a bit hasty getting “Kane” printed on the back of my Charlton shirt!
Bet Davison or Maynard-Brewer wouldn't mind six months in the UAE. Or even Chris Solly.
I doubt five players will suddenly arrive unannounced from the gulf expecting to start in the first team, that would be ridiculous.
As ridiculous as a goalkeeper who can't catch, kick or throw arriving unannounced from Belgium and expecting to start in the first team?
I don't give a shit if people think I'm negative. I think this whole purchase stinks. Southall comes across as having no more substance or trustworthiness than a used car salesman, we've seen zero evidence of any signings - without which we're certainly getting relegated, and they may or may not even have bought the ground or the training ground.
Bet Davison or Maynard-Brewer wouldn't mind six months in the UAE. Or even Chris Solly.
I doubt five players will suddenly arrive unannounced from the gulf expecting to start in the first team, that would be ridiculous.
As ridiculous as a goalkeeper who can't catch, kick or throw arriving unannounced from Belgium and expecting to start in the first team?
I don't give a shit if people think I'm negative. I think this whole purchase stinks. Southall comes across as having no more substance or trustworthiness than a used car salesman, we've seen zero evidence of any signings - without which we're certainly getting relegated, and they may or may not even have bought the ground or the training ground.
Extremely worried.
Maybe I’m just an eternal optimist, but I honestly think with our squad, that we have at the moment once a few more injuries return, and Bowyer at the helm, you cannot say we’re certainly getting relegated. Before our injuries we were 2nd! Not saying we don’t need some reinforcements to help us out.
Will reserve judgement on our new owners till I see how the rest of this month plays out. But as I’ve said before, I’ve never had an issue with them not wanting to be mugged off by players demanding the earth.
We wait and hope that we’re all feeling positive on our way to watching the Barnsley game on Feb 1st.
Bet Davison or Maynard-Brewer wouldn't mind six months in the UAE. Or even Chris Solly.
I doubt five players will suddenly arrive unannounced from the gulf expecting to start in the first team, that would be ridiculous.
As ridiculous as a goalkeeper who can't catch, kick or throw arriving unannounced from Belgium and expecting to start in the first team?
I don't give a shit if people think I'm negative. I think this whole purchase stinks. Southall comes across as having no more substance or trustworthiness than a used car salesman, we've seen zero evidence of any signings - without which we're certainly getting relegated, and they may or may not even have bought the ground or the training ground.
Extremely worried.
Maybe I’m just an eternal optimist, but I honestly think with our squad, that we have at the moment once a few more injuries return, and Bowyer at the helm, you cannot say we’re certainly getting relegated. Before our injuries we were 2nd! Not saying we don’t need some reinforcements to help us out.
Will reserve judgement on our new owners till I see how the rest of this month plays out. But as I’ve said before, I’ve never had an issue with them not wanting to be mugged off by players demanding the earth.
We wait and hope that we’re all feeling positive on our way to watching the Barnsley game on Feb 1st.
I'd agree. We still have a fighting chance of avoiding it but there was an opportunity to make us safe. We certainly are not safe now.
We need signings to improve our starting eleven rather than more squad players.
Who they play for isn't really relevant. We've brought in players from bigger clubs who turned out to be poor signings and brought in others from smaller clubs who've been brilliant for us.
We'll also no doubt be working on possible signings who haven't been linked with us. They aren't our only options.
Sorry this turned into a long post. I am in no way trying to tread on Grapevine's toes here and will revert to trivia about beer and pubs ASAP. However, the article confirmed a few things for me that relate to my world in private equity ...
Still not much I can see here that says this isn't a fairly typical private equity type deal, with one exception.
Guy (Matt Southall) comes to a PE firm (ADBD) with an investment case (Charlton).
The investment case is to invest X (still don't know what this is) with a potential return of 200-250 million value, self-sufficient PL club within 5 years. Investment case is under-written by assets (ground, training ground, etc.), so downside is limited. 5 years is a typical investment horizon for a PE deal.
The current set up, with a management team punching above their weight reduces the risk, which is always better than having to bring a new team in.
X can be enhanced and risk reduced by increasing gates, increasing commercial income, all of which should be possible as fans return and the team improves.
Risk and costs also reduced from academy, which needs investment to get real returns (including only selling on our terms).
Apparently there are upside opportunities and spin-offs in adjacent investments in South East London, etc. Not sure how all that works - other people on here will know better - but assume it is a relationship/community thing.
At five years, decide to exit, continue if target not met but sufficient progress made, or push on to the next level.
PE firm (ADBD) take this to their usual investors (the Sikh ++) and get the go-ahead. Investors pledge X and say more is there if targets are met. This is where I think the reality is slightly different to what's being presented. I would expect the PE partners (HE, maybe Hellier) to invest their own money but also that most of it is coming from the investors (the Sheikh).
Southall is given a stake for bringing the deal and is made chairman to deliver his own vision. This is where it isn't quite typical in that the figure implied (~25%) is high for a management incentive - maybe there's room there for others on the management team. 5-15% is more typical in the PE industry for the whole team (at least in my industry, technology). Football is reputed to be a funny old game though, so who who knows ...
PE firm put their own guys on the Board to manage an inexperienced chairman (though suspect that they need a full time CEO or at least a CFO as he's very green).
So, still leaves X as the unknown and maybe we'll never know what X is. There are so many permutations of what X could be and they can also borrow money, but I'm not surprised at the emphasis on gates, commercial revenue, commercial synergies, etc. as suspect it is a key part of the investment case and is going to be important regardless because of the FFP rules.
The above hypothesis ties in with the EFL DD delay being about who were the real investors, where the money was really coming from and how close the two families were (our Sheikh and Man City's). Who knows what they found and what was demonstrated but I still believe the Sheikh will be the main money as HE doesn't have enough to risk so much of it on a football club (say X = 100m and he's worth 500, these guys do not risk 20% of their wealth on a single deal).
What this doesn't appear to be is someone's toy that they're just going to throw money at, like a yacht. But then again, it could still be a smokescreen.
Complete conjecture .... I've been wondering if this relates to Lee's 'strange' comment. I wouldn't be surprised if some element of his incentive is some kind of equity participation in the club and it's taken him a while to, first, get his head around it, second value it, and third then work through the detail of all the clauses, particularly if his agent is working out how he gets paid. It would explain the 5 year nature of his deal. And/or it would tie in with the hardball negotiation, via the press, that he really did just want the cash, thanks ...
Complete conjecture .... I've been wondering if this relates to Lee's 'strange' comment. I wouldn't be surprised if some element of his incentive is some kind of equity participation in the club and it's taken him a while to, first, get his head around it, second value it, and third then work through the detail of all the clauses, particularly if his agent is working out how he gets paid. It would explain the 5 year nature of his deal. And/or it would tie in with the hardball negotiation, via the press, that he really did just want the cash, thanks ...
Very interesting point of view. Thank you for posting.
Complete conjecture .... I've been wondering if this relates to Lee's 'strange' comment. I wouldn't be surprised if some element of his incentive is some kind of equity participation in the club and it's taken him a while to, first, get his head around it, second value it, and third then work through the detail of all the clauses, particularly if his agent is working out how he gets paid. It would explain the 5 year nature of his deal. And/or it would tie in with the hardball negotiation, via the press, that he really did just want the cash, thanks ...
Very interesting point of view. Thank you for posting.
You're welcome.
As I say, that bit's complete conjecture but it's what I would at least offer if I were the buyer. A lot of complexity then, on termination clauses, etc. You can also imagine how they may have thought it was a great offer and he maybe didn't.
Complete conjecture .... I've been wondering if this relates to Lee's 'strange' comment. I wouldn't be surprised if some element of his incentive is some kind of equity participation in the club and it's taken him a while to, first, get his head around it, second value it, and third then work through the detail of all the clauses, particularly if his agent is working out how he gets paid. It would explain the 5 year nature of his deal. And/or it would tie in with the hardball negotiation, via the press, that he really did just want the cash, thanks ...
Very interesting point of view. Thank you for posting.
Agree WISITP. Do you think they have factored relegation into their model?
Extremely good post @WishIdStayedinthePub which sounds very plausible but I fear will be lost on those who are already convinced the club has fallen into the wrong hands. Only time will allay those fears with the outcome of the current transfer window and property issues within the next six months. Meanwhile l remain upbeat whilst adopting a wait and see approach before inviting on a stomach ulcer.
Complete conjecture .... I've been wondering if this relates to Lee's 'strange' comment. I wouldn't be surprised if some element of his incentive is some kind of equity participation in the club and it's taken him a while to, first, get his head around it, second value it, and third then work through the detail of all the clauses, particularly if his agent is working out how he gets paid. It would explain the 5 year nature of his deal. And/or it would tie in with the hardball negotiation, via the press, that he really did just want the cash, thanks ...
Very interesting point of view. Thank you for posting.
Agree WISITP. Do you think they have factored relegation into their model?
I would have thought so - would just be sensible contingency planning and I think Southall said that somewhere recently.
That would impact TV revenue for a years (6-8m?), hopefully not as much on gates as the last two years with no boycott and you would expect all the contracts to include provisions for relegation. So maybe adds 10 million to the cost case and puts the revenue case back a year, in a worse case situation. So, to be avoided, but can be costed and built in to the case fairly easily.
Complete conjecture .... I've been wondering if this relates to Lee's 'strange' comment. I wouldn't be surprised if some element of his incentive is some kind of equity participation in the club and it's taken him a while to, first, get his head around it, second value it, and third then work through the detail of all the clauses, particularly if his agent is working out how he gets paid. It would explain the 5 year nature of his deal. And/or it would tie in with the hardball negotiation, via the press, that he really did just want the cash, thanks ...
Very interesting point of view. Thank you for posting.
Agree WISITP. Do you think they have factored relegation into their model?
IN the report linked by the OP, it said:
"Southall said also that provisions are in place should Charlton be relegated this season, and that a return to League One would not impact significantly the club’s ability to generate revenue from Gulf sponsors."
The other thing is that the plan described by @WishIdStayedinthePub isn't that far away from the Spivs, in my eyes at least.
That was going fine until they went to Kevin Cash and asked for more money. He said "no" and pulled the plug.
Tahnoon Nimer isn't a hidden name, unlike Cash, but perhaps his ultimate backers are. There is a risk that there is no contingency fund if things go wrong.
I'm not calling ESI Spivs BTW, just that their plans are not a million miles away.
I like the mention of regular supporter “loans” and the annual pre season supporter training camp in Abu Dhabi - clearly part of the keep the fans happy approach.
The whole Upper Covered End can move east on a cultural exchange and engage in teaching some tasteful choral works.
Comments
I still think money will be spent, I might just have been a bit hasty getting “Kane” printed on the back of my Charlton shirt!
I don't give a shit if people think I'm negative. I think this whole purchase stinks. Southall comes across as having no more substance or trustworthiness than a used car salesman, we've seen zero evidence of any signings - without which we're certainly getting relegated, and they may or may not even have bought the ground or the training ground.
Extremely worried.
Will reserve judgement on our new owners till I see how the rest of this month plays out. But as I’ve said before, I’ve never had an issue with them not wanting to be mugged off by players demanding the earth.
We wait and hope that we’re all feeling positive on our way to watching the Barnsley game on Feb 1st.
Who they play for isn't really relevant. We've brought in players from bigger clubs who turned out to be poor signings and brought in others from smaller clubs who've been brilliant for us.
We'll also no doubt be working on possible signings who haven't been linked with us. They aren't our only options.
Still not much I can see here that says this isn't a fairly typical private equity type deal, with one exception.
Guy (Matt Southall) comes to a PE firm (ADBD) with an investment case (Charlton).
The investment case is to invest X (still don't know what this is) with a potential return of 200-250 million value, self-sufficient PL club within 5 years. Investment case is under-written by assets (ground, training ground, etc.), so downside is limited. 5 years is a typical investment horizon for a PE deal.
The current set up, with a management team punching above their weight reduces the risk, which is always better than having to bring a new team in.
X can be enhanced and risk reduced by increasing gates, increasing commercial income, all of which should be possible as fans return and the team improves.
Risk and costs also reduced from academy, which needs investment to get real returns (including only selling on our terms).
Apparently there are upside opportunities and spin-offs in adjacent investments in South East London, etc. Not sure how all that works - other people on here will know better - but assume it is a relationship/community thing.
At five years, decide to exit, continue if target not met but sufficient progress made, or push on to the next level.
PE firm (ADBD) take this to their usual investors (the Sikh ++) and get the go-ahead. Investors pledge X and say more is there if targets are met. This is where I think the reality is slightly different to what's being presented. I would expect the PE partners (HE, maybe Hellier) to invest their own money but also that most of it is coming from the investors (the Sheikh).
Southall is given a stake for bringing the deal and is made chairman to deliver his own vision. This is where it isn't quite typical in that the figure implied (~25%) is high for a management incentive - maybe there's room there for others on the management team. 5-15% is more typical in the PE industry for the whole team (at least in my industry, technology). Football is reputed to be a funny old game though, so who who knows ...
PE firm put their own guys on the Board to manage an inexperienced chairman (though suspect that they need a full time CEO or at least a CFO as he's very green).
So, still leaves X as the unknown and maybe we'll never know what X is. There are so many permutations of what X could be and they can also borrow money, but I'm not surprised at the emphasis on gates, commercial revenue, commercial synergies, etc. as suspect it is a key part of the investment case and is going to be important regardless because of the FFP rules.
The above hypothesis ties in with the EFL DD delay being about who were the real investors, where the money was really coming from and how close the two families were (our Sheikh and Man City's). Who knows what they found and what was demonstrated but I still believe the Sheikh will be the main money as HE doesn't have enough to risk so much of it on a football club (say X = 100m and he's worth 500, these guys do not risk 20% of their wealth on a single deal).
What this doesn't appear to be is someone's toy that they're just going to throw money at, like a yacht. But then again, it could still be a smokescreen.
Complete conjecture .... I've been wondering if this relates to Lee's 'strange' comment. I wouldn't be surprised if some element of his incentive is some kind of equity participation in the club and it's taken him a while to, first, get his head around it, second value it, and third then work through the detail of all the clauses, particularly if his agent is working out how he gets paid. It would explain the 5 year nature of his deal. And/or it would tie in with the hardball negotiation, via the press, that he really did just want the cash, thanks ...
First, Al Ain Museum ....... next, to commemorate our portacabin years exiled at Shitfield, the Charlton Palace Museum.
I wonder if they've told Henry yet?
As I say, that bit's complete conjecture but it's what I would at least offer if I were the buyer. A lot of complexity then, on termination clauses, etc. You can also imagine how they may have thought it was a great offer and he maybe didn't.
Do you think they have factored relegation into their model?
What I was thinking but set out much better than I could.
I still think once a certain level is reached other investors will be "invited" to take a share of the club ie the Shiekh and friends.
Southall will get a return via his shares but remains as CEO.
That is the exit strategy IMHO.
Questions 1 to 5 (owner, plan, funding, Valley, training ground) sort of answered but more clarification needed)
That would impact TV revenue for a years (6-8m?), hopefully not as much on gates as the last two years with no boycott and you would expect all the contracts to include provisions for relegation. So maybe adds 10 million to the cost case and puts the revenue case back a year, in a worse case situation. So, to be avoided, but can be costed and built in to the case fairly easily.
"Southall said also that provisions are in place should Charlton be relegated this season, and that a return to League One would not impact significantly the club’s ability to generate revenue from Gulf sponsors."
"The price Roman wanted was excessive for other people"
They think they've bought fucking Chelsea!
That was going fine until they went to Kevin Cash and asked for more money. He said "no" and pulled the plug.
Tahnoon Nimer isn't a hidden name, unlike Cash, but perhaps his ultimate backers are. There is a risk that there is no contingency fund if things go wrong.
I'm not calling ESI Spivs BTW, just that their plans are not a million miles away.
https://adbd.ae/
Competition closes at midnight
A free ticket to the Den for the winner!
The whole Upper Covered End can move east on a cultural exchange and engage in teaching some tasteful choral works.