Extremely good post @WishIdStayedinthePub which sounds very plausible but I fear will be lost on those who are already convinced the club has fallen into the wrong hands. Only time will allay those fears with the outcome of the current transfer window and property issues within the next six months. Meanwhile l remain upbeat whilst adopting a wait and see approach before inviting on a stomach ulcer.
You can read quite a lot (maybe too much) into the last two paras, I think.
"The price Roland wanted was excessive for other people" could just imply (a) deep pockets and a lower expectation of returns, (b) a more optimistic view on the return and/or (my guess) (c) a much lower cost of capital. Let's hope it's not (b). I've ruled out that they've under-estimated the costs as Southall is in the game (!)
"The potential of the projects (sic)" - more references to other projects, so they feel there are synergies and it doesn't stand alone as an investment.
I'm glass half full. I can see a scenario where the sensible business plan story is all smoke and mirrors to keep player prices down and there's more capital available than they're implying, justified by other projects and interests, diversifying risks, whatever.
But a more likely scenario is where we're on a sensible but tight budget that needs a 3x return on equity. That doesn't give much headroom for player salaries without borrowing and/or bringing in a lot more revenue from gates and commercials. Time will tell and this will not run on social media time scales.
If this much money is now behind the club, why are we looking at players from Bristol Rovers, Peterborough United and Blackpool?
No - I don't expect them to bring in Harry Kane and Ronaldo. But, I'd expect reinforcements from slightly higher up the food chain than those we are being told about.
Roland had more money. He was a billionaire. Tahnoon is worth 500 mil. People speculate his family must be co-funding but every word out of ESI has been that they're not gonna run up masses of wage and transfer debt. Just fans getting excited.
What's the source for Roland being a billionaire in £s? I thought I read somewhere his personal wealth was about 500m Euros.
Last time I checked a few months ago, I think he was worth about 1.4 billion Euros and was the 22nd wealthiest person in Belgium.
If this much money is now behind the club, why are we looking at players from Bristol Rovers, Peterborough United and Blackpool?
No - I don't expect them to bring in Harry Kane and Ronaldo. But, I'd expect reinforcements from slightly higher up the food chain than those we are being told about.
Roland had more money. He was a billionaire. Tahnoon is worth 500 mil. People speculate his family must be co-funding but every word out of ESI has been that they're not gonna run up masses of wage and transfer debt. Just fans getting excited.
What's the source for Roland being a billionaire in £s? I thought I read somewhere his personal wealth was about 500m Euros.
Last time I checked a few months ago, I think he was worth about 1.4 billion Euros and was the 22nd wealthiest person in Belgium.
Sorry this turned into a long post. I am in no way trying to tread on Grapevine's toes here and will revert to trivia about beer and pubs ASAP. However, the article confirmed a few things for me that relate to my world in private equity ...
Still not much I can see here that says this isn't a fairly typical private equity type deal, with one exception.
Guy (Matt Southall) comes to a PE firm (ADBD) with an investment case (Charlton).
The investment case is to invest X (still don't know what this is) with a potential return of 200-250 million value, self-sufficient PL club within 5 years. Investment case is under-written by assets (ground, training ground, etc.), so downside is limited. 5 years is a typical investment horizon for a PE deal.
The current set up, with a management team punching above their weight reduces the risk, which is always better than having to bring a new team in.
X can be enhanced and risk reduced by increasing gates, increasing commercial income, all of which should be possible as fans return and the team improves.
Risk and costs also reduced from academy, which needs investment to get real returns (including only selling on our terms).
Apparently there are upside opportunities and spin-offs in adjacent investments in South East London, etc. Not sure how all that works - other people on here will know better - but assume it is a relationship/community thing.
At five years, decide to exit, continue if target not met but sufficient progress made, or push on to the next level.
PE firm (ADBD) take this to their usual investors (the Sikh ++) and get the go-ahead. Investors pledge X and say more is there if targets are met. This is where I think the reality is slightly different to what's being presented. I would expect the PE partners (HE, maybe Hellier) to invest their own money but also that most of it is coming from the investors (the Sheikh).
Southall is given a stake for bringing the deal and is made chairman to deliver his own vision. This is where it isn't quite typical in that the figure implied (~25%) is high for a management incentive - maybe there's room there for others on the management team. 5-15% is more typical in the PE industry for the whole team (at least in my industry, technology). Football is reputed to be a funny old game though, so who who knows ...
PE firm put their own guys on the Board to manage an inexperienced chairman (though suspect that they need a full time CEO or at least a CFO as he's very green).
So, still leaves X as the unknown and maybe we'll never know what X is. There are so many permutations of what X could be and they can also borrow money, but I'm not surprised at the emphasis on gates, commercial revenue, commercial synergies, etc. as suspect it is a key part of the investment case and is going to be important regardless because of the FFP rules.
The above hypothesis ties in with the EFL DD delay being about who were the real investors, where the money was really coming from and how close the two families were (our Sheikh and Man City's). Who knows what they found and what was demonstrated but I still believe the Sheikh will be the main money as HE doesn't have enough to risk so much of it on a football club (say X = 100m and he's worth 500, these guys do not risk 20% of their wealth on a single deal).
What this doesn't appear to be is someone's toy that they're just going to throw money at, like a yacht. But then again, it could still be a smokescreen.
Complete conjecture .... I've been wondering if this relates to Lee's 'strange' comment. I wouldn't be surprised if some element of his incentive is some kind of equity participation in the club and it's taken him a while to, first, get his head around it, second value it, and third then work through the detail of all the clauses, particularly if his agent is working out how he gets paid. It would explain the 5 year nature of his deal. And/or it would tie in with the hardball negotiation, via the press, that he really did just want the cash, thanks ...
This sounds very much like my thoughts on the matter. You have set it out very well, thanks.
Interesting stuff, but the problem with relegation is that it isn’t necessarily a one-year problem. That c£7m loss of revenue repeats year on year until you get promoted back. I don’t see the logic of not investing in the team now - especially if you are relatively cavalier about paying over the odds for the assets. There has to be another reason why the money isn’t on the table.
Interesting stuff, but the problem with relegation is that it isn’t necessarily a one-year problem. That c£7m loss of revenue repeats year on year until you get promoted back. I don’t see the logic of not investing in the team now - especially if you are relatively cavalier about paying over the odds for the assets. There has to be another reason why the money isn’t on the table.
Erm err erm err let me guess because it doesn’t exist (yet) locked up in some other investment to be released if we pray enough at a further date
Airman are you too diplomatic to say they “could” be skint and chancers because that’s how it appears to me with all talk and no hard cash put down on the table so far as Henry mentions a bit like Cash and his cronies but without the cash so far .
Hopefully some real money will be input to the club and we can start buying players that will improve us buy cheap buy twice !!
Interesting stuff, but the problem with relegation is that it isn’t necessarily a one-year problem. That c£7m loss of revenue repeats year on year until you get promoted back. I don’t see the logic of not investing in the team now - especially if you are relatively cavalier about paying over the odds for the assets. There has to be another reason why the money isn’t on the table.
Erm err erm err let me guess because it doesn’t exist (yet) locked up in some other investment to be released if we pray enough at a further date
Airman are you too diplomatic to say they “could” be skint and chancers because that’s how it appears to me with all talk and no hard cash put down on the table so far as Henry mentions a bit like Cash and his cronies but without the cash so far .
Hopefully some real money will be input to the club and we can start buying players that will improve us buy cheap buy twice !!
Might be the first time anyone ever accused me of being diplomatic.
I wonder if Matt Southall has oversold the possibilities at Charlton to the Abu Dhabi end simply in order to get in the door. The club won’t thrive (simply) by outperforming the market through strong leadership, even if that is in place. It has significant structural weaknesses as a business, never mind the team.
I don’t think it says that £50m was the price paid, but more it was the price agreed.
Deferred payment for The Valley and training ground ie Charlton Holdings, £50m or £60m deferred for six months to get the deal over the line in time for the transfer window opening.
They still may have bought CAFC Ltd for £1.00.
It would be good to get the detail on that @Airman Brown.
Yep, if they've actually paid £50m without owning the freehold of the Valley or training ground, they're fucking morons.
If Southall really does have no clothes - and the jury is out on that till the window closes - then WTF does he think he is doing with the "It's all roses" PR campaign?
At some point you are going to be exposed so why the hell make yourself so public?
If Southall really does have no clothes - and the jury is out on that till the window closes - then WTF does he think he is doing with the "It's all roses" PR campaign?
At some point you are going to be exposed so why the hell make yourself so public?
If Southall really does have no clothes - and the jury is out on that till the window closes - then WTF does he think he is doing with the "It's all roses" PR campaign?
At some point you are going to be exposed so why the hell make yourself so public?
If this much money is now behind the club, why are we looking at players from Bristol Rovers, Peterborough United and Blackpool?
No - I don't expect them to bring in Harry Kane and Ronaldo. But, I'd expect reinforcements from slightly higher up the food chain than those we are being told about.
Roland had more money. He was a billionaire. Tahnoon is worth 500 mil. People speculate his family must be co-funding but every word out of ESI has been that they're not gonna run up masses of wage and transfer debt. Just fans getting excited.
Thought it was reported he had a personal fortune of 15 Billion ?
Sorry this turned into a long post. I am in no way trying to tread on Grapevine's toes here and will revert to trivia about beer and pubs ASAP. However, the article confirmed a few things for me that relate to my world in private equity ...
Still not much I can see here that says this isn't a fairly typical private equity type deal, with one exception.
Guy (Matt Southall) comes to a PE firm (ADBD) with an investment case (Charlton).
The investment case is to invest X (still don't know what this is) with a potential return of 200-250 million value, self-sufficient PL club within 5 years. Investment case is under-written by assets (ground, training ground, etc.), so downside is limited. 5 years is a typical investment horizon for a PE deal.
The current set up, with a management team punching above their weight reduces the risk, which is always better than having to bring a new team in.
X can be enhanced and risk reduced by increasing gates, increasing commercial income, all of which should be possible as fans return and the team improves.
Risk and costs also reduced from academy, which needs investment to get real returns (including only selling on our terms).
Apparently there are upside opportunities and spin-offs in adjacent investments in South East London, etc. Not sure how all that works - other people on here will know better - but assume it is a relationship/community thing.
At five years, decide to exit, continue if target not met but sufficient progress made, or push on to the next level.
PE firm (ADBD) take this to their usual investors (the Sikh ++) and get the go-ahead. Investors pledge X and say more is there if targets are met. This is where I think the reality is slightly different to what's being presented. I would expect the PE partners (HE, maybe Hellier) to invest their own money but also that most of it is coming from the investors (the Sheikh).
Southall is given a stake for bringing the deal and is made chairman to deliver his own vision. This is where it isn't quite typical in that the figure implied (~25%) is high for a management incentive - maybe there's room there for others on the management team. 5-15% is more typical in the PE industry for the whole team (at least in my industry, technology). Football is reputed to be a funny old game though, so who who knows ...
PE firm put their own guys on the Board to manage an inexperienced chairman (though suspect that they need a full time CEO or at least a CFO as he's very green).
So, still leaves X as the unknown and maybe we'll never know what X is. There are so many permutations of what X could be and they can also borrow money, but I'm not surprised at the emphasis on gates, commercial revenue, commercial synergies, etc. as suspect it is a key part of the investment case and is going to be important regardless because of the FFP rules.
The above hypothesis ties in with the EFL DD delay being about who were the real investors, where the money was really coming from and how close the two families were (our Sheikh and Man City's). Who knows what they found and what was demonstrated but I still believe the Sheikh will be the main money as HE doesn't have enough to risk so much of it on a football club (say X = 100m and he's worth 500, these guys do not risk 20% of their wealth on a single deal).
What this doesn't appear to be is someone's toy that they're just going to throw money at, like a yacht. But then again, it could still be a smokescreen.
Complete conjecture .... I've been wondering if this relates to Lee's 'strange' comment. I wouldn't be surprised if some element of his incentive is some kind of equity participation in the club and it's taken him a while to, first, get his head around it, second value it, and third then work through the detail of all the clauses, particularly if his agent is working out how he gets paid. It would explain the 5 year nature of his deal. And/or it would tie in with the hardball negotiation, via the press, that he really did just want the cash, thanks ...
This sounds nail on the head, and I reckon is the "strange" comment from Bow
If Southall really does have no clothes - and the jury is out on that till the window closes - then WTF does he think he is doing with the "It's all roses" PR campaign?
At some point you are going to be exposed so why the hell make yourself so public?
If Southall really does have no clothes - and the jury is out on that till the window closes - then WTF does he think he is doing with the "It's all roses" PR campaign?
At some point you are going to be exposed so why the hell make yourself so public?
- a five week plan to re-launch our season in the course of the transfer window - a five month plan to retain our second-tier status - a five year plan to prepare for the club's rebuilding and further development
in that order.
Our beloved club stands on a razor's edge either of its greatest opportunity or its greatest disappointment and at this precise moment, friends, I have not the slightest idea which of the two it is.
The reasons for our predicament are many and tangled. Charlton Athletic has known triumph and success over the years and also utter disaster, a prime example being the Blackburn game in April 1958, a single match which sealed the previous season's relegation into a top-tier exile of 29 years. Given the challenges we face at this pivotal time in our history we need wise and decisive leadership as never before, and we can only hope that we are in the hands of the right people at the right time. It will not be very long before we know where we stand.
Interesting stuff, but the problem with relegation is that it isn’t necessarily a one-year problem. That c£7m loss of revenue repeats year on year until you get promoted back. I don’t see the logic of not investing in the team now - especially if you are relatively cavalier about paying over the odds for the assets. There has to be another reason why the money isn’t on the table.
Erm err erm err let me guess because it doesn’t exist (yet) locked up in some other investment to be released if we pray enough at a further date
Airman are you too diplomatic to say they “could” be skint and chancers because that’s how it appears to me with all talk and no hard cash put down on the table so far as Henry mentions a bit like Cash and his cronies but without the cash so far .
Hopefully some real money will be input to the club and we can start buying players that will improve us buy cheap buy twice !!
Might be the first time anyone ever accused me of being diplomatic.
I wonder if Matt Southall has oversold the possibilities at Charlton to the Abu Dhabi end simply in order to get in the door. The club won’t thrive (simply) by outperforming the market through strong leadership, even if that is in place. It has significant structural weaknesses as a business, never mind the team.
In the short term, the pump must be primed!
Let's hope they spent those four months doing proper due diligence. And I totally agree, relegation is a lottery and we could easily end up there another 3 years, which would be catastrophic.
If - for now - we assume they do know what they're doing AND it's not a charade ...
Assuming the total investment = 100/110, that would give them a YoY return of 15%, which I reckon is the minimum they would want (and is pretty much identical to @Henry Irving 's estimate). That leaves about 9 million/year to put into wages and transfers, after buying Holdings (if and when). Not mad money but reasonable if spent wisely.
However, and I assume this is your point about structural weaknesses, some basic maths and extrapolation of the last financial results says that the real problem this year is going to be the FFP headroom they have to play with, which I reckon could be quite low single figure millions. After this year, and assuming we stay up, I think it gets a lot better.
Competition closes at midnight A free ticket to the Den for the winner!
No longer private office of the Shiekh?
Really? H.E. Tahnoon Nimer, Chairman of The Private Office of H. H. Sheikh Saeed Bin Tahnoon Al Nahyan, oversees the running of circa 60 companies, that fall under the umbrella of the Private Office.
Competition closes at midnight A free ticket to the Den for the winner!
No longer private office of the Shiekh?
Really?
H.E. Tahnoon Nimer, Chairman of The Private Office of H. H. Sheikh Saeed Bin Tahnoon Al Nahyan, oversees the running of circa 60 companies, that fall under the umbrella of the Private Office.
Yes. The opening page in ADBD now clearly shows it as the private office of Tahnoon Nimer.
No idea of its significance. It would appear the 60 odd businesses he looks after for the Sheikh are now under his control?
Or maybe just shifting about names for business interest?
Please don’t lay into me on this as it is only my first post on CL. I hope this is deemed an appropriate thread for my query.
Like many fans I’m hoping for Lee and his team to all come up with contracts that happily tie them in for years. Unlike many fans I’m not yet in a state of panic over a lack of action through the middle of the transfer window. Any glance at the Sky Transfer Centre will show that we’re not the only club with a dearth of done deals in relation to the volume of chat on twitter and each club’s respective forums.
I have tried to find an answer* on CL pertaining to the training ground but couldn’t find one anywhere. We had approved planning permission for a 3 storey facility with the second floor given over to accommodation for academy players, recovery rooms, Physio and Injury Rehab.
* leaving the ownership question to the countless others that have been debating it.
In August 2019 the club submitted a revision request to knock the facility down to 2 floors stating that the need for academy accommodation was no longer an issue. There is no place on the revised floorplan for the recovery rooms, Physio (presumably for the long term injured) or Injury Rehab rooms.There was, and still is, on the revised floorplan, an area allocated on the ground floor for Physio, Hydro and Sports Science but that was presumably intended for short term / day to day rehab.
The decision on the revision isn’t listed but should have been delivered in late November 2019.
What I am concerned about is that Matt announced that we had “recently received” planning consent and that we were going ahead with the new facility. He also mentioned that we were pushing to be a Cat 1 Academy. For that we need 3 classrooms that meet Department of Education requirements with sufficient desks for 20 students and 20 computers with internet access. The revised floorplan shows the match analysis room being used to double up as a classroom and only 2 dedicated classrooms.
At the joint press conference (with LB in the green jacket) MS mentioned the plan for a Cat 1 academy. HE is planning to bring over technical and medical expertise yet the current plans show us scaling back on plans for both elements at SL.
Happy to take whatever pelters are coming my way if everyone else knows the reason behind the revised plan for Sparrows Lane.
Not wetting the bed - just a bit bemused over the verbal aspiration and the concrete (literally re SL) plans.
Comments
"The price Roland wanted was excessive for other people" could just imply (a) deep pockets and a lower expectation of returns, (b) a more optimistic view on the return and/or (my guess) (c) a much lower cost of capital. Let's hope it's not (b). I've ruled out that they've under-estimated the costs as Southall is in the game (!)
"The potential of the projects (sic)" - more references to other projects, so they feel there are synergies and it doesn't stand alone as an investment.
I'm glass half full. I can see a scenario where the sensible business plan story is all smoke and mirrors to keep player prices down and there's more capital available than they're implying, justified by other projects and interests, diversifying risks, whatever.
But a more likely scenario is where we're on a sensible but tight budget that needs a 3x return on equity. That doesn't give much headroom for player salaries without borrowing and/or bringing in a lot more revenue from gates and commercials. Time will tell and this will not run on social media time scales.
Let’s see when they start walking what happens.
You have set it out very well, thanks.
Airman are you too diplomatic to say they “could” be skint and chancers because that’s how it appears to me with all talk and no hard cash put down on the table so far as Henry mentions a bit like Cash and his cronies but without the cash so far .
Hopefully some real money will be input to the club and we can start buying players that will improve us buy cheap buy twice !!
Does that not require proof of funds to be able to run the club for X amount of years?
I think the money is there. Somewhere.
Could the changing of ADBD revenue stream have something to do with it?
Maybe Nimer is still concerned with the Al Nayhan link coming back to bite him so is having a bit of a shift around before he opens his wallet?
I wonder if Matt Southall has oversold the possibilities at Charlton to the Abu Dhabi end simply in order to get in the door. The club won’t thrive (simply) by outperforming the market through strong leadership, even if that is in place. It has significant structural weaknesses as a business, never mind the team.
In the short term, the pump must be primed!
Yep, if they've actually paid £50m without owning the freehold of the Valley or training ground, they're fucking morons.
At some point you are going to be exposed so why the hell make yourself so public?
https://adbd.ae/
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/12312818/filing-history/MzI1MzYxMjI2N2FkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
Emirates Islamic Building
ADBE website now also states it is the Private Office of H.E. TAHNOON NIMER, not the Sheikh... Hmmmmmmm.
When new owners came in we needed
- a five week plan to re-launch our season in the course of the transfer window
- a five month plan to retain our second-tier status
- a five year plan to prepare for the club's rebuilding and further development
in that order.
Our beloved club stands on a razor's edge either of its greatest opportunity or its greatest disappointment and at this precise moment, friends, I have not the slightest idea which of the two it is.
The reasons for our predicament are many and tangled. Charlton Athletic has known triumph and success over the years and also utter disaster, a prime example being the Blackburn game in April 1958, a single match which sealed the previous season's relegation into a top-tier exile of 29 years. Given the challenges we face at this pivotal time in our history we need wise and decisive leadership as never before, and we can only hope that we are in the hands of the right people at the right time. It will not be very long before we know where we stand.
If - for now - we assume they do know what they're doing AND it's not a charade ...
Assuming the total investment = 100/110, that would give them a YoY return of 15%, which I reckon is the minimum they would want (and is pretty much identical to @Henry Irving 's estimate). That leaves about 9 million/year to put into wages and transfers, after buying Holdings (if and when). Not mad money but reasonable if spent wisely.
However, and I assume this is your point about structural weaknesses, some basic maths and extrapolation of the last financial results says that the real problem this year is going to be the FFP headroom they have to play with, which I reckon could be quite low single figure millions. After this year, and assuming we stay up, I think it gets a lot better.
H.E. Tahnoon Nimer, Chairman of The Private Office of H. H. Sheikh Saeed Bin Tahnoon Al Nahyan, oversees the running of circa 60 companies, that fall under the umbrella of the Private Office.
No idea of its significance. It would appear the 60 odd businesses he looks after for the Sheikh are now under his control?
Or maybe just shifting about names for business interest?
Welcome to the site