Barnsley & Luton have to be hot favourites being 4/5 points adrift with only 7 games left. This is despite both of them being in good form. The trouble is for them their nearest rivals apart from Hull are also winning.
If we play like the last 2 games we'll survive but we've got 3 very tough games coming up and then we also have to play Wigan, who on form this calendar year are 2nd in the table and finish with Leeds A.
Realistically on paper we have 2 games that appear to be more winnable, Reading H and Brum A, but we all know Charlton ofetn win the games you least expect.
It will almost certainly go to the last game and I just hope we're out of it by then. 51 points may be enough for us if we keep the better goal difference. It's possible someone will be relegated on goal difference.
Posted on the championship thread but seems more appropriate here.
Personally i think 53 points should be the new target for survival. If we get that then:
Barnsley need to win 5 and draw 1 out of 7. Luton need to win 5 out of 7. Hull need to win 4 and draw 1 out of 7. Huddersfield need to win 4 and draw 1 out of 8.
Almost every side will need to go on a run like Wigan and it's not going to happen. 1 team may do so (likely Luton looking at the fixtures) but they won't all do it.
Our concern for now needs to be just trying to get 2-3 extra points on the board from our next 3 very tough games. Currently 45 points from 39 looks ok. But 45 points from 42 games will have us right back in trouble and sweating going into what would be a 'must win' Reading game.
We now have more points than our relegation season just 40. 41 and 42 points was enough to stay up the last 2 seasons but 52 the year before.
Certainly will be high this year low to mid 50s, more points shared this season and the teams that have nothing to play for and didn’t want to restart will be easier to beat like QPR.
We are still deep in trouble but at least Bowyer has the team fighting for points. Two wins and six points since the restart means it’s in our own hands now.
Dont like the idea of two games in four days let alone Cardiff and Millwall.
Things will look different come 5pm next Saturday better or not it’s one hell of a season .
We are still deep in trouble but at least Bowyer has the team fighting for points. Two wins and six points since the restart means it’s in our own hands now.
Dont like the idea of two games in four days let alone Cardiff and Millwall.
Things will look different come 5pm next Saturday better or not it’s one hell of a season .
Tougher for Hull, they have a rejuvenated Warnock's Middlesbrough on Thursday night, then on Sunday afternoon they go to West brom, then 3 days later they go to Bristol city. 3 tough games in 6 days for a side who've got 3 points in 13 games.
Added to that they've got a bunch of players who have played their last game for the club too.
We are still deep in trouble but at least Bowyer has the team fighting for points. Two wins and six points since the restart means it’s in our own hands now.
Dont like the idea of two games in four days let alone Cardiff and Millwall.
Things will look different come 5pm next Saturday better or not it’s one hell of a season .
Tougher for Hull, they have a rejuvenated Warnock's Middlesbrough on Thursday night, then on Sunday afternoon they go to West brom, then 3 days later they go to Bristol city. 3 tough games in 6 days for a side who've got 3 points in 13 games.
Added to that they've got a bunch of players who have played their last game for the club too.
Hopefully Bristol City get a win against Sheffield Wednesday today, if they dont that leaves them five points from the Play-Offs and you have to question if their season is done
We are still deep in trouble but at least Bowyer has the team fighting for points. Two wins and six points since the restart means it’s in our own hands now.
Dont like the idea of two games in four days let alone Cardiff and Millwall.
Things will look different come 5pm next Saturday better or not it’s one hell of a season .
I think we are well capable of coping with that many games, as we have a decent depth in our squad, especially in midfield
The likes of Field, Williams, Lapslie, Sarr, Purrington, Doughty, Aneke and Green will all be desperate to start
A draw against the spanners, beat Wigan and Reading = 52 points, should be enough. We wont get anything v Cardiff, Brentford, Leeds, Brum result could go either way, but I would take a point now.
The next 10 days could be what defines the season at the bottom.
I can't see Hull getting any more than a maximum of 2 points from their next 3 games.
We need to get at least 3 points from our next 3, so one win could do it but I think we could get 4 points. 49 from 42 would look quite good when we have a run of Reading, Birmingham, and Wigan as our next 3 afterwards.
Midweek fixtures are: Wigan v Stoke Leeds v Luton Barnsley v Blackburn Birmingham v Huddersfield Hull v Middlesbrough
Some huge games. Ideally we'd want Wigan, Leeds, Blackburn, Birmingham, and Middlesbrough all to win.
We now have more points than our relegation season just 40. 41 and 42 points was enough to stay up the last 2 seasons but 52 the year before.
Certainly will be high this year low to mid 50s, more points shared this season and the teams that have nothing to play for and didn’t want to restart will be easier to beat like QPR.
I think this could be right. Usually the top two teams average close to two points a game, but both Leeds and West Brom are well below this … and yet there is still a bit of daylight between them and the chasing Play-Off teams. And, with no-one really 'adrift' at the bottom, we see a very compressed Championship table this year.
You'd hope that Luton and Barnsley have left themselves with a bit too much to do, so the main hope is that one of the other rivals just cave in (yesterday won't have buoyed the mood at Hull, Stoke could be iffy without Joe Allen, Huddersfield seem a bit bewildered).
But, if we are left to our own devices, I suspect that we might need another 7 or 8 points … and that's not easy when you look at our remaining fixtures.
Thing is like most have said its now a mini league.
In previous seasons teams at the foot of the table would be drifting away due to continuing defeats and tiredness.
Now they've had the longest rest ever and it all starts again.... Like Lewis Coaches said I worry about next Saturday at 5pm if we don't get some points this week. It could look a very different table
But at least it's never dull watching us... Relegation battles, efl investigations, dodgy owners, dodgy owner friends, no investment, possible administration... Phew what's left? Oh I know ground relocation!
Thing is like most have said its now a mini league.
In previous seasons teams at the foot of the table would be drifting away due to continuing defeats and tiredness.
Now they've had the longest rest ever and it all starts again.... Like Lewis Coaches said I worry about next Saturday at 5pm if we don't get some points this week. It could look a very different table
But at least it's never dull watching us... Relegation battles, efl investigations, dodgy owners, dodgy owner friends, no investment, possible administration... Phew what's left? Oh I know ground relocation!
We've benefitted from the break more than most clubs i would imagine.
If the season had carried on as it were, we'd have probably been long gone. A number of injuries, had just lost 3 games in a row to 3 shit teams without scoring and had dropped into the bottom 3.
A draw against the spanners, beat Wigan and Reading = 52 points, should be enough. We wont get anything v Cardiff, Brentford, Leeds, Brum result could go either way, but I would take a point now.
Wigan looks as difficult as Brentford at the moment.
Just seen Luton’s remaining fixtures. If they don’t win at least 4 of them, I will be astounded. It might take something like 53 points to stay up this year compared to Millwall’s 44 that kept them up by 4 clear points in 18/19. If I am right, QPR should scrape 3 more points to secure safety leaving the rest of us below to fight for our lives. With games against the 3 team immediately above us, fate really is very much in our own hands now after 2 great, vital wins after the restart. I can see Barnsley, Stoke and Hull going down at this rate. Crazy season all round.
Here are my predictions for the rest of the season:
Cardiff (A) - Lose 1-3
Millwall (H) - Draw 1-1
Brentford (A) - Lose 0-2
Reading (H) - Win 2-1
Birmingham (A) - Draw 1-1
Wigan (H) - Draw 2-2
Leeds (A) - Lose 0-4
Predicted additional points: 6
Predicted final points total: 51
Predicted league placement: 20th (borderline survival!!)
Predicted bottom 6:
19th Luton 52 pts (LWWLWDW +13)
20th Charlton 51pts (LDLWDDL +6)
21st Huddersfield 50pts (DDDWDLL +8)
22nd Hull 49pts (DLDWDDL +7)
23rd Stoke 48pts (LDLWDLL +5)
24th Barnsley 44pts (DDLDLWL +6)
Think you’re too kind on Luton. Yes their fixtures on paper are against weaker sides in the league, but they have a lot of 6 pointers and they won’t win them all. They’ve got 39 points all season, to get 13 from the final 7 is a huge ask.
I also believe we will win more than one more game before the end of the season. Confidence and momentum are so important and this league is unpredictable. It’s because of that, that I can’t see Hull picking up more than 3 more points and why I think we’ll finish on something like 53 points. Also, Huddersfield not to lose for the next 5 games too, that’s very unlikely.
Cardiff tomorrow is a hard game, but this is a crazy league. No one would’ve expected Luton to beat Swansea away on Saturday for example, anything can happen. If we were to actually win tomorrow, that would surely put us in a very good position for safety. 48 points with 6 to go would be absolute miracles from Bow and the team.
For me the bottom three will be Barnsley, Luton and either Hull or Huddersfield. The way they are playing, Stoke should be a big risk as well, but I believe they will do enough to stay up (although there's not quite that level of confidence on 'The Oatcake').
Just seen Luton’s remaining fixtures. If they don’t win at least 4 of them, I will be astounded. It might take something like 53 points to stay up this year compared to Millwall’s 44 that kept them up by 4 clear points in 18/19. If I am right, QPR should scrape 3 more points to secure safety leaving the rest of us below to fight for our lives. With games against the 3 team immediately above us, fate really is very much in our own hands now after 2 great, vital wins after the restart. I can see Barnsley, Stoke and Hull going down at this rate. Crazy season all round.
I'll predict now with some confidence that Luton are unlikely to win 4 out of 7.
If we manage to stay up, it'd be great if Barnsley and Luton do too - 2 other teams with limited budgets would help greatly given the inflated budgets of the rest of the league we would have to compete with
If we manage to stay up, it'd be great if Barnsley and Luton do too - 2 other teams with limited budgets would help greatly given the inflated budgets of the rest of the league we would have to compete with
Absolutely right. And if Wycombe or Fleetwood come up that will surely help us too. Clubs like Birmingham and Wednesday with off field issues likely to be much weaker too and suddenly we look in a stronger position almost by default.
Long way to go though. Hard to gauge other teams' remaining games. Barnsley look like they have a tough last 3 games but by the time they play Forest, Leeds and Brentford two could be already guaranteed a play off place and preparing for that and Leeds could be promoted. Suddenly those games take on a different look.
It will really help us if Swansea can beat Millwall tomorrow. That will make the gap to 6th even bigger potentially (although I think we can get something at Cardiff which would actually help Millwall out.) I just don't think they believe they will make the play offs and with no crowd there on Friday we have no excuses not to beat them. I don't think the weight of history sits uneasily on Bowyer's shoulders at all.
I think if Hull lose to Boro they may well lose all their games, they certainly won't win any. We have a decent gap from the bottom two plus goal difference.
Just seen Luton’s remaining fixtures. If they don’t win at least 4 of them, I will be astounded. It might take something like 53 points to stay up this year compared to Millwall’s 44 that kept them up by 4 clear points in 18/19. If I am right, QPR should scrape 3 more points to secure safety leaving the rest of us below to fight for our lives. With games against the 3 team immediately above us, fate really is very much in our own hands now after 2 great, vital wins after the restart. I can see Barnsley, Stoke and Hull going down at this rate. Crazy season all round.
I'll predict now with some confidence that Luton are unlikely to win 4 out of 7.
They've won 4 (and drawn 3) out of their last 8, so it's not impossible.
Hull have 3 draws and 9 defeats in their last 12 matches!
Just seen Luton’s remaining fixtures. If they don’t win at least 4 of them, I will be astounded. It might take something like 53 points to stay up this year compared to Millwall’s 44 that kept them up by 4 clear points in 18/19. If I am right, QPR should scrape 3 more points to secure safety leaving the rest of us below to fight for our lives. With games against the 3 team immediately above us, fate really is very much in our own hands now after 2 great, vital wins after the restart. I can see Barnsley, Stoke and Hull going down at this rate. Crazy season all round.
I'll predict now with some confidence that Luton are unlikely to win 4 out of 7.
Unlikely maybe, but they've currently won 4 out of their last 8 and only lost one of those. Can't apply the usual logic to this season, it's mad.
Comments
This is despite both of them being in good form.
The trouble is for them their nearest rivals apart from Hull are also winning.
If we play like the last 2 games we'll survive but we've got 3 very tough games coming up and then we also have to play Wigan, who on form this calendar year are 2nd in the table and finish with Leeds A.
Realistically on paper we have 2 games that appear to be more winnable, Reading H and Brum A, but we all know Charlton ofetn win the games you least expect.
It will almost certainly go to the last game and I just hope we're out of it by then.
51 points may be enough for us if we keep the better goal difference.
It's possible someone will be relegated on goal difference.
Personally i think 53 points should be the new target for survival. If we get that then:
Barnsley need to win 5 and draw 1 out of 7.
Luton need to win 5 out of 7.
Hull need to win 4 and draw 1 out of 7.
Huddersfield need to win 4 and draw 1 out of 8.
Almost every side will need to go on a run like Wigan and it's not going to happen. 1 team may do so (likely Luton looking at the fixtures) but they won't all do it.
Our concern for now needs to be just trying to get 2-3 extra points on the board from our next 3 very tough games. Currently 45 points from 39 looks ok. But 45 points from 42 games will have us right back in trouble and sweating going into what would be a 'must win' Reading game.
41 and 42 points was enough to stay up the last 2 seasons but 52 the year before.
Dont like the idea of two games in four days let alone Cardiff and Millwall.
Things will look different come 5pm next Saturday better or not it’s one hell of a season .
Added to that they've got a bunch of players who have played their last game for the club too.
The likes of Field, Williams, Lapslie, Sarr, Purrington, Doughty, Aneke and Green will all be desperate to start
We wont get anything v Cardiff, Brentford, Leeds,
Brum result could go either way, but I would take a point now.
I can't see Hull getting any more than a maximum of 2 points from their next 3 games.
We need to get at least 3 points from our next 3, so one win could do it but I think we could get 4 points. 49 from 42 would look quite good when we have a run of Reading, Birmingham, and Wigan as our next 3 afterwards.
Midweek fixtures are:
Wigan v Stoke
Leeds v Luton
Barnsley v Blackburn
Birmingham v Huddersfield
Hull v Middlesbrough
Some huge games. Ideally we'd want Wigan, Leeds, Blackburn, Birmingham, and Middlesbrough all to win.
One game at a time though, that's all we can do.
You'd hope that Luton and Barnsley have left themselves with a bit too much to do, so the main hope is that one of the other rivals just cave in (yesterday won't have buoyed the mood at Hull, Stoke could be iffy without Joe Allen, Huddersfield seem a bit bewildered).
But, if we are left to our own devices, I suspect that we might need another 7 or 8 points … and that's not easy when you look at our remaining fixtures.
Time to beat Millwall, Gentlemen.
Add to that our forwards can not score,5pm Saturday feeling not so happy is what concerns me.
In previous seasons teams at the foot of the table would be drifting away due to continuing defeats and tiredness.
Now they've had the longest rest ever and it all starts again.... Like Lewis Coaches said I worry about next Saturday at 5pm if we don't get some points this week. It could look a very different table
But at least it's never dull watching us... Relegation battles, efl investigations, dodgy owners, dodgy owner friends, no investment, possible administration... Phew what's left? Oh I know ground relocation!
If the season had carried on as it were, we'd have probably been long gone. A number of injuries, had just lost 3 games in a row to 3 shit teams without scoring and had dropped into the bottom 3.
May posts claimed this would be the case about: Hull / Middlesborough and Sheffield Wednesday.........and what happened this week!?
Here are my predictions for the rest of the season:
Cardiff (A) - Lose 1-3
Millwall (H) - Draw 1-1
Brentford (A) - Lose 0-2
Reading (H) - Win 2-1
Birmingham (A) - Draw 1-1
Wigan (H) - Draw 2-2
Leeds (A) - Lose 0-4
Predicted additional points: 6
Predicted final points total: 51
Predicted league placement: 20th (borderline survival!!)
Predicted bottom 6:
19th Luton 52 pts (LWWLWDW +13)
20th Charlton 51pts (LDLWDDL +6)
21st Huddersfield 50pts (DDDWDLL +8)
22nd Hull 49pts (DLDWDDL +7)
23rd Stoke 48pts (LDLWDLL +5)
24th Barnsley 44pts (DDLDLWL +6)
I also believe we will win more than one more game before the end of the season. Confidence and momentum are so important and this league is unpredictable. It’s because of that, that I can’t see Hull picking up more than 3 more points and why I think we’ll finish on something like 53 points. Also, Huddersfield not to lose for the next 5 games too, that’s very unlikely.
Cardiff tomorrow is a hard game, but this is a crazy league. No one would’ve expected Luton to beat Swansea away on Saturday for example, anything can happen. If we were to actually win tomorrow, that would surely put us in a very good position for safety. 48 points with 6 to go would be absolute miracles from Bow and the team.
Long way to go though. Hard to gauge other teams' remaining games. Barnsley look like they have a tough last 3 games but by the time they play Forest, Leeds and Brentford two could be already guaranteed a play off place and preparing for that and Leeds could be promoted. Suddenly those games take on a different look.
It will really help us if Swansea can beat Millwall tomorrow. That will make the gap to 6th even bigger potentially (although I think we can get something at Cardiff which would actually help Millwall out.) I just don't think they believe they will make the play offs and with no crowd there on Friday we have no excuses not to beat them. I don't think the weight of history sits uneasily on Bowyer's shoulders at all.
I think if Hull lose to Boro they may well lose all their games, they certainly won't win any. We have a decent gap from the bottom two plus goal difference.
We too only have the one win in Wigan which was the 3-0 win when Chris Eagles played so is a fixture that favours the home team
Hull have 3 draws and 9 defeats in their last 12 matches!