I am intrigued that your stat model is bringing to life the popular assessment that the race has fundamentally changed and the more forgiving obstacles now give materially more chance to horses carrying a higher weight and/or those who are progressive chasers. Sweeping generalisation but I remember the "old" model putting up more experienced types with an emphasis on course or marathon trip form whereas the revisions now bring up potentially more classy types and seemingly look for a broader range of qualities; and are more forgiving of the negatives without putting a line through. The 8 year old comment is particularly telling after the last 5 years or so. Have to say I find the tinkering with your model fascinating.
Poor sod I really appreciate your kind comment @ISawLeaburnScore Very glad that my ramblings are of interest. Cheers And that's a very accurate observation and summary re the change in emphasis in the race - I'd have taken 12 paras to say what you put very succinctly!! I'll say a tad more about the progressive (second season chasers/8 yos) vs old fashioned types after the weights are out. I'd just add though that one thing hasn't changed and that's the importance of absolute weight. Notwithstanding the fine and worthy win with 11.09 by the obviously high class Many Clouds in 2015 (though I do believe he was somewhat fortunate that misfortune befell 3 rivals - The Druids Nephew (fell 6 out when leading and travelling strongly), Saint Are (<2L runner up but bad mistakes) and Monbeg Dude (6L 3rd but horrible traffic problems), Ruby was spot on when he said in 2019 [I paraphrase]:
"Over 11st, every pound becomes [exponentially] harder to carry...... Ideally, I think you would be looking for a horse with 11st, or just below, to ride in the Grand National."
So class is more important but, obviously, class at the right weight in both relative and absolute terms. Especially with the handicapper now less keen to compress the topweights (Many Clouds was also the beneficiary of 5lbs compression), the "archetype" for the classier GN contender is probably that runner that's been knocking on the door in Class 1s at 24~26f (around the low 150s in the handicap) and unexposed over further. It's finding the right one!! In any event I think there will always be room for (the right sort of) proven stayers down the handicap to run a big race, including the old-fashioned sort in the right conditions. Have a nice Sunday!
Aintree is a possibility for Aye Right after yesterday's fine run it seems
As reported in the RP this pm:
Graham reported Aye Right, who also finished second in the Ladbrokes Trophy, to be in fine health after his Doncaster exertions but revealed his spring plans are not yet set in stone.
The Scottish Grand National at Ayr, Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and a crack at the Grand National at Aintree are all under consideration, and the Jedburgh-based trainer firmly believes her stable star is good enough to win a national.
Reflecting on Saturday's race, Graham said: "I was absolutely gutted. I felt quite sick to be honest, but I was so proud and I’ve never seen a horse recover so quickly from a race. We’re really pleased and excited for him and we need to make a proper plan now for the spring.
"Before going into Doncaster we were talking about the Ultima at Cheltenham and then maybe Ayr. There has been some chatter going around about Aintree and I think he’s a type that could win a National with his jumping and rhythm, so that’s a conversation we’ll need to have."
Showing RPR157 for his 2nd yesterday (was 155 a couple of hours ago so they still seem to be thinking about it!), which would be a career-high (156 for his Hennessy 2nd) and 6lbs higher than his current OR151.
The latter may, of course, change on Tuesday. Stats-wise, he needs to maintain a 5lb margin, RPR vs GNOR, to confirm a winning calibre stat-rating on decent ground, based on the 2013-19 Overlay for the model. Obviously that 5lb margin is touch and go.
Shortened up a nadge on the Exchange today to c 30.
Disappointing news for Aye Right. Handicapper's upped his mark 3lbs this morning to 154 for his gallant 2nd in the Great Yorkshire. A tad harsh IMHO (the fella's been put up a total of 8lbs now without winning) and, from a stats perspective, that will likely cook his goose as regards carrying my shilling at Aintree. Still capable of a big run (maybe a minor place) but sadly no cigar, based on my Overlay's assessment. Hate to say that because he's a fine sort for Aintree but he'll now have to run to a new RPR best in a prep to be on my team.
But collateral implications also for Cloth Cap, raised another 1lb because of the revision to Aye Right's mark. CC now on 148 and that may tip the balance against him also as regards winning stat-profile, unless he too scores or goes close in his prep.
106 entries for the biggy. Aye Right does not have an entry this time. All the expected names do, so far as I can tell from a quick glance, but some notable and disappointing absentees from my model's perspective include Crosspark and Kildisart (is he injured?). As expected, Native River’s owners aren’t keen and Vinndication has other plans this year. However, pleased to say my 100/1 e/w fancy Minellacelebration holds a ticket. Trainer has held it as an objective/dream for him to run and he should make the cut off 148.
One last roll of the dice this year for Le Breuil, who must win the Edinburgh National (or go very close) on Saturday to get his current 140 mark up to make the (probable) cut for Aintree. Notwithstanding several disappointments since his Novice Chase win at The Festival, if he scores at Musselburgh carrying 11.12 (4/1 fav), he’ll have the stat-profile to be in contention at the business end on 10 April, likely carrying not much more than minimum 10 stone (currently top price 40s). Can’t get terribly excited about the rearranged Cotswold Chase at Sandown over a shortened trip. Only Yala Enki would potentially hold any interest for me with the GN in mind and only then if it were soft in April.
Not to be for Le Breuil and it was agonising to watch him give it his all giving so much weight all round on desperate ground. Obviously won't have the mark now to ensure a run at Aintree but I wouldn't be too negative after that 4th today. He's performed a lot better since his wind op and it was a big ask to win today in the conditions so soon after his staying-on effort at Warwick. That Warwick run confirmed he lacks gears but, now with a chance for a break, the stamina test of a Midlands National should be right up his street and, if Yala Enki runs there (as Nicholls has suggested), LB will carry well below 11 stone in the Uttoxeter marathon. More anon.
PS Sadly Stay Humble fatally injured falling at the penultimate fence in the Edinburgh National.
Hi @PeanutsMolloy... after disappointment that Aye Right has been passed, just wondering where your model puts The Storyteller? He may well not go, will be high up the weights if he does, and never tried over 3m1 but 50/1 for a horse that's beaten Minella Indo, Delta Work (twice), Chris' Dream, Melon and Presenting Percy over staying chases this season is interesting...
Morning @ISawLeaburnScore Sorry to be slow replying - voltage drop and consequent boiler outage causing much consternation in the Molloy household since last night - thankfully rectified this morning.
Very good point. He ran a blinder (again) yesterday and, among the "quality" 3 milers, I totally agree with you that 50s is too rich and seriously begs the question. Elliott's entered him for the last 2 GNs and, even though he's thrown his entire stable in some years!!, one can reasonably assume he fancies him taking a shot at a GN one day (might still fancy him for a different prize this year but you never know).
Just before explaining how the Model rates him, I owe you one for prompting me to look at the recent outperformance of progressive types. Based on a meaningful outperformance not just of 8 yos but 2nd season chasers of all ages (even 13 yo Vics Canvas 3rd in 2016 was a 2nd season fencer), a 10th test has been added to my Overlay (I'll explain it another time) which further sharpens the model's back-tested results. It is a little relevant to your question as well.
So, The Storyteller and my model's rating (bear in mind that the Overlay permits up to 2 fails). Crudely he currently fails 4 tests but, importantly, the 4 "outliers" for the Overlay that made the frame 2013-19 (Alvarado x2, Shutthefrontdoor and Gilgamboa) had 5 fails. The model is about improving the %s but so too is an assessment of odds and "value" and, at the right price, a potential outlier for the Model can still be a great e/w bet and even a stat-busting winner of course. Though I'll always go with my model, I'd never want to deter someone from backing any runner they reckon to be a value proposition. And I can well see why you might with The Storyteller, who from the way he runs shapes promisingly for the test.
However, the specific test fails: 1. RPR vs GN mark If carrying 11.04+ (likely) on 10 April, he needs to have a best same-season 3m+ chase RPR 6+lbs better than his GN mark (all 5 with 11.04+ to finish 1~5 2013-19 were 6+). The Storyteller was OR162 prior to yesterday but surely will be raised for his 2L defeat to 168-rated Kemboy. RP has already assigned him a career-best RPR 167 (up 2) for yesterday's run, which seems about right. One point to note in favour of him representing potential value, his 2 best chase RPRs have now been set at the furthest trip he's tried, 24.5f. His best hurdles RPR was also over the furthest he ran (24f). Strictly as regards the test, currently he's +5 so a near-miss but it'll likely worsen with a revised mark. 2 & 3. No form at 26f+ and carrying 11.02+ It may seem unfair (or a flaw in the model) as he's yet to race at 25f+ but it's his lack of 26f+ form that the model doesn't like and which accounts for 2 of his failed tests (in fact, because of that highest RPR at furthest tried, he is treated by the Model as potentially progressive at further and so he avoids a 5th fail and is treated like he were a 2nd season chaser even though he's in his 4th season fencing). Why 2 fails? The Model demands that any runner has form at 26f but, carrying 11.02+ (as he certainly will), compounds the fail. Why?
From 1987~2019, all 29 runners to make the frame (1~5) in a GN that carried 11.02+ had previously won at 26f+ or been placed in a Gold Cup or 29f+ National. And from 2013~2019, of the 19 runners to carry 11.02+ without any career form at 26f+, the best was Valseur Lido's 8th in 2018.
Only 3 runners that had no 26f+ form have made 1~5 in a GN 2013-19 (Double Seven 2014, Gilgamboa 2016 and Magic of Light 2019). All 3 were 8 yos in their 2nd season chasing and carried <11.02.
4. Pedigree No Wild Risk on his damside, so fails this test. No stamina-endorsing relatives of note, though he is from the family of the top Hunter Chaser and winner over the GN fences and at The Festival, Elegant Lord. And, his Dam-Sire is Bob Back who was also Dam-Sire to Many Clouds and my #1 fav stayer of recent years Synchronised. Doesn't guarantee it but could support him being competitive at an extended trip.
The changing profile of a GN winner's Dam-Sire Bob Back is particularly noteworthy as a Dam-Sire in that, since the GN course changes, he's representative of the marked prevalence of Dam-Sires of successful GN runners that have also sired a Group 1 winner on the flat, frequently at 12f+ (Bob's Return in Bob Back's case). Aside from Many Clouds, the dam-sires of Auroras Encore and Cause Of Causes (both Rainbow Quest), One For Arthur (Trempolino), Balthazar King (Hernando), Rule The World (Persian Bold) and Tiger Roll (Entrepreneur) - so of 6 of the last 7 winners - had all done likewise. Of course breeding patterns evolve but, in contrast, of the 2005-2012 GN winners/near-missers, only 2010's winner and runner-up Don't Push and Black Apalachi had such a Dam-Sire (Alleged & Be My Native respectively). The change would seem logically to reflect the greater emphasis on stamina at speed, and a somewhat lesser jumping test. Again, encouragingly for The Storyteller's potential value, 2 of the 3 to make 1~5 in a recent GN without prior form at 26f+, Gilgamboa and Magic Of Light, also had Dam-Sires that had sired a Group 1 winner or near-misser (2L) - Be My Native and Saumarez respectively.
Just to conclude on The Storyteller's stat-profile, he ticks a number of other boxes: plenty high-enough hurdle RPR159, won in the hurly burly of a 22-runner Festival chase, won on Y and on Soft, decent record in spring and a strong record this season (5 wins/near-misses from 8 outings since 1 July) - a busy campaign is not a hindrance (Pineau De Re 9 runs 5 wins/n-m, Rule The World 6 runs 2 w/n-m).
I hope that helps/illuminates some things. Despite not passing the model's threshold, it would not surprise me at all to see him run a big one on 10 April, if he lines up.
Wow! As always, absolutely brilliant, considered analysis. You should charge!
Two fairly hefty minuses then... weight and lack of big trip experience (which also combine to exacerbate one another).
I am however intrigued at the value angle. 50/1 AP for 5 places in one firm, as short as 20/1 elsewhere (although that's 4, 1/4). Whereas 38 on Betfair... It's not a particularly well-formed market before Cheltenham and lots of trials and for some other big hitters like Santini and Bristol de Mai (doubtful runners too) there are wide disparities too but given how he's stepped forward in higher class company, I'd be prepared to take a swing at 50s.
You're too kind @ISawLeaburnScore Not sure about charging - I can talk total bollocks at times (at least according to Mrs M) and don't fancy getting sued
As usual, you've hit the nail on the head and summarised my schpeel perfectly in a single sentence.
Downwards OR movement at the top of the GN entries sees Santini -3 to 167 (but I can't imagine Henderson taking him to Aintree 3 weeks after a GC tilt) and Delta Work -2 to 168. Lake View Lad cops a significant break and is dropped 5lbs just one race after being hiked 8 for his impressive defeat of Saturday's winner and Santini. Bristol de Mai will bypass The Festival for a tilt at the GN (according to NTD) and is unchanged on 169, making him the likely topweight for Aintree (Tiger still being on 168). He was entered last time when on 170 and compressed 2 to 168. So I can't see him being allotted anything less that 167. The handicapper could make this the year to abandon compression altogether (which they'd like to do and would be welcome IMHO) but my best guess is that (as a gesture to O'Leary and a repeat of last year's 1lb concession to Tiger) he'll drop BDM to either 167 or 168 (Tiger to a lb below him) and, barring injury, BDM will set the top mark for the race (which would be the highest GN OR since 1999 - the last race pre-compression, when Bobbyjo won from a stone out of the handicap and topweight was Suny Bay off OR169). We'll find out for sure next Tuesday of course.
The Storyteller's been put up 3lbs by the Irish handicapper to 165 (Kemboy up 1 to 169 for what it's worth), making it likely that he'd have at least 11.07 to carry if the British handicapper follows suit. A big ask for sure and maybe the spread of antepost prices reflects the doubt about him taking part - interesting that PP are top price 50s, perhaps suggesting not. TBH, Bob's 22/1 for him for the Stayers Hurdle looks very appealing to me. with his record at The Festival, if he takes up that engagement. Wouldn't preclude a run on 10 April if connections do fancy it.
The Midlands National is his confirmed target and, even with the topweight he's sure to carry, that should be right up his street. The GN is just 3 weeks later and, though he's renowned for taking his races really well, it would be a huge ask to run at Aintree after a 34f slog in Uttoexeter's mud with topweight. Despite his entry, maybe Nicholls considers his jumping too economical (risky) for the GN fences and has mentally written it off - his first fence departure in the Becher perhaps persuading him that, like the sadly departed Synchronised, his style is just not suited to a GN, even with the more forgiving nature of the fences these days. Though Bryony remains positive, PN certainly seems to have gone quiet on the GN for him.
If he were to line up, based on a likely GN topweight allotted 167 (I think less is improbable barring BDM getting injured) he'd carry 11.03. That's just within the limit of a workable weight, based on his CV, providing there is meaningful cut (at least GS/Sft places). Would need Soft or worse to have a proper chance of winning. Whether he lines up is the big question however. We'll see.
Elliott confirms GN as the target for Presenting Percy - rated 169 by the Irish handicapper currently. So increasingly likely to have a topweight OR in the region of 167 and exceeding the recent high of 165 (when Many Clouds defended his title in 2016). Delta Work still aimed at the GC. No word on The Storyteller other than copious praise for his fine effort on Sunday and to confirm the stayers hurdle at The Festival (I've availed myself of Bob's 22s).
Only had 1 bet in this so far, ALPHA DES OBEAUX. Elliott said a few times thinks it'll be right up his street.
Was 3rd off 159 in the Becher in 2019, and fancied enough for this last year but obviously never got to see what might've been. Since then he's struck me as a total non-trier on just about every start either blasting out in front and having no chance lasting home or never being put into the race.
There's a chance he's a bit gone, but it's noticeable that his Irish mark has come down to 149 now. At 70+ on Betfair think he's quite interesting.
Only had 1 bet in this so far, ALPHA DES OBEAUX. Elliott said a few times thinks it'll be right up his street.
Was 3rd off 159 in the Becher in 2019, and fancied enough for this last year but obviously never got to see what might've been. Since then he's struck me as a total non-trier on just about every start either blasting out in front and having no chance lasting home or never being put into the race.
There's a chance he's a bit gone, but it's noticeable that his Irish mark has come down to 149 now. At 70+ on Betfair think he's quite interesting.
Totally agree @PolzeathNick He's flashing away very brightly on my radar screen off his current mark. Carried 11.12 in that fine Becher run (obviously well-in now vs Kimberlite Candy on that) and, aside from the nice run cut short in the 2018 GN, was unlucky in his only other attempt at 3.5m+ when horribly hampered in the 2017 Irish GN (recovering well to finish 8th behind the mighty Our Duke) off a similar mark to now. Entered for Sunday's Irish GN Trial. Keeping a very close eye on him, if he runs, and the mare Moyhenna in that race, though she may be more likely bound for Fairyhouse. If his 2 encouraging spins over the GN fences are anything to go by, strikes me he could do an Oscar Time (fine run in 4th in 2013, having near-missed in 2011), who'd had a wretched season but, even without a drop in mark, was like a new horse again back over the spruce. I've had a cash-outable e/w dabble with bet365 at 66s.
Cool good to know he's on your radar too!! Just been chipping away at him win only on the exchange. Two reasons - 1. not sure about his ew prospects, has been fairly dire this season so relying on him bouncing back, in which case must go close to winning. Strikes me as a win or bust maybe? 2. shops are shut, so not got any meaningful access to online ew prices lol
Cool good to know he's on your radar too!! Just been chipping away at him win only on the exchange. Two reasons - 1. not sure about his ew prospects, has been fairly dire this season so relying on him bouncing back, in which case must go close to winning. Strikes me as a win or bust maybe? 2. shops are shut, so not got any meaningful access to online ew prices lol
Very fair point. I've been hoovering up Minellacelebration on exchanges, whose got the stats IMO to be a 100/1 gobstopper on a decent surface, so I'll happily shoot for the place money on ADO
No Denman Chase tomorrow sadly but there's a couple of very interesting declarations for the 3.5 mile Class B Irish
GN Trial at Punchestown on Sunday.
@PolzeathNick has already picked out Alpha Des Obeaux(66/1) and he'll be nominal topweight on Sunday, but have 7lbs taken off by his claiming pilot, for this 3rd attempt at 3.5m+. As noted above, his first 2 having shown quiet promise.
With GN weights out on Tuesday, Gordon may prefer that ADO disappears off the edge of the TV screen once again before the business end (33/1 for the race suggests he will, intentionally or otherwise), but if he were to win or go close on Sunday (or if not then, in a subsequent chase prep), he would confirm a contender's rating for Aintree, providing his GN mark is no higher than low-150s.
But he's not the only runner in the race of interest with Aintree in mind.
It's been 70 years since a mare crossed the line first in a GN. Magic Of Light currently has the stat-profile to go one better than last time but there are 2 other mares flashing away on the GN radar screen that could do so (Agusta Gold, who funnily enough is related to Aye Right, though she's said to be aimed at Fairyhouse) and, running in Sunday's Irish GN Trial:
Moyhenna (10/1 for Sunday, 66/1 GN)
Be warned, she may also have Fairyhouse as her preferred target.
A 9yo unexposed beyond 25f, she stayed on strongly, losing on the nod to Cabernet Queen, in September's Kerry
National on Soft (Montys Pass won and Rule The World near-missed in the
late-summer Kerry National prior to their GN wins). She was off 141 that day, since when she's run
with credit though meeting misfortune off her current mark 145.
Very much shapes like she'd improve over an extended trip and, again, a win or near-miss tomorrow would confirm a contender's stat-rating for Aintree but whether connections opt for the Irish GN instead is anyone's guess.
Aside from Wild Risk's presence via both sire and dam, she ticks the increasingly significant stat-box for a post-2012 GN of having a damsire (Montjeu) that won a 12f+ Group 1 itself and sired a runner that did likewise - Derby winner Authorised, who in turn sired Tiger Roll.
Finally, having now put the slide rule over 76 of the 106 GN entries - all those rated 142 or more (I suspect
that's where we'll see the cut once again this year) and a sprinkling of those
lower that would probably run if given the chance, there's one more bright radar-screen-flasher to highlight.
Minella Times (50/1)
JP's not averse to letting his promising, unexposed chasers take their chance in a GN and, while he's had some failures that were fancied, he's had more than a sprinkling of succeess - King John's Castle (2008), Double Seven (2014) and Gilgamboa (2016) all making the frame with no prior form beyond 25f.
Minella Times is another progressive 8 yo bearing the green and gold hoops, with 2 near-misses over his only attempts at 3m, including a not-stopping 4.5L 2nd in the Paddy Power Handicap in December - a race that's typically a good proxy for the hurly burly of a GN and which Anibale Fly and Colbert Station both won and Gilgamboa placed in prior to their first GN tilts.
Sired by Oscar (whose progeny include GN frame-makers Oscar Time and Teaforthree), he's from the family of strong stayer Rambling Minster. Wild Risk on his damside ticks that specific box.
If he takes his chance at Aintree and the surface is too quick for Kimberlite Candy, he'd be JP's best chance of success according to my model's rating of his current stats, with strong place potential.
And if he obliged, it would more likely be his jockey making the big headlines - in all probability being Rachel Blackmore, who’s 4 wins/near-misses from 4 on board him.
So, as things stand at this very second, assuming weights are allotted in line with current ORs (Irish if no British mark as yet), that the topweight runs off 167 and that all have an uneventful prep, of those that are definitely or probably Aintree-bound, the top 6 as rated by my stat-model are:
Preferring Good or Good-to-Soft
Magic
of Light 25/1
Minellacelebration 100/1
Minella
Times 50/1
Could be a big night at John Nallen’s Hotel Minella!
Preferring Soft or Heavy:
Kimberlite Candy 25/1
Yala
Enki 33/1 (will run in Midlands National / GN intentions unknown)
Discorama 50/1
But many wheels still turning of course. An extra 1lb differential between OR and RPR for his Hennessy win (now 4lbs) would see Cloth Cap re-enter the equation on a sound surface.
I do wish the O'Learys would go ahead and retire Tiger Roll rather than keep threatening to do so if the English handicapper doesn't lower its mark. It smacks of total arrogance but given all we know about the individuals in question we really shouldn't be surprised should we?
Morning folks, In a little over 24 hours we'll have the GN weights announced - cue temper tantrum (the handicapper will not oblige O'Leary - in fact it wouldn't surprise me if he takes the opportunity to dispense with compression of the top ratings once and for all) and potentially weeks of fatuous speculation about Tiger's participation. Regardless of O'Leary's kvetchings, IMHO that will depend less on the handicapper than the horse's form - he wins the XC, he runs at Aintree, otherwise no.
Well, Bob was deeply underwhelmed by yesterday's Irish GNT at Punchestown- sending all 3 runners with Aintree entries now out to 80s. In the eye of the beholder of course but to mine (and seemingly the Racing Post's, who've accorded her a career-best matching RPR147), Moyhenna, the de facto topweight,was quietly notable,staying on over the last 6f very gamely from out the back, having once again encountered traffic problems - twice hampered/inconvenienced by fallers and squeezed up on an early bend. It looked at the last like she would go on to win but the front 2 with lighter burdens quickened away to leave her 7L 3rd (at least the distance if not the placing reflecting the earlier misfortunes). One-paced at the finish she may have been but, for me, she confirmed her competitiveness at 3.5m on her first attempt and, doing so on testing ground with 11.06, her capacity for further with a much lighter load - enough now on her CV to confirm her GN stat-rating of strong place potential, providing it's Soft or Heavy. If adopted tomorrow, her current Irish mark of 145 should guarantee her a run but the question is whether Aintree or Fairyhouse (5 days earlier this year, on 5 April) is the preference. She did have an early entry for the Welsh GN, so presumably it's not a frivolous option to cross the puddle to shoot for a big prize but it may well be weather dependent. Bet365's an outlier at 80s but that's antepost right now (exchange offers 100~120 - had to avail myself of 200+ over the last few days on the chance she runs). The only current NRNB offered is 50s from SkyBet but there will no doubt be others after tomorrow. More anon.
GN topweight = OR167 (Bristol De Mai 2lbs compression, Easysland & Santini) Tiger Roll allotted OR166 (same mark that Many Clouds had when defending his crown in 2016). Cue kvetchings from the plonker.
G'day ladies and gents. Well, the handicapper has opined and, with
seemingly scant reference to who's been naughty or nice, has bestowed a gift on
some and a turd on others as regards their GN marks and chances.
In summary:
Other than the topweight Bristol De Mai being compressed 2lbs from 169 to 167, all the British trained runners run off their current marks.
For the Irish, as we know, Tiger Roll gets 166 (so carries 11.09) which seems fair to (almost) everyone. On paper, the only other frame-makers from 2019 offering a rematch, Magic Of Light (156) and Anibale Fly (155), will now be on level terms with Tiger based on the distances in that race. Anibale Fly (allotted 155) gets 5lbs more than his current Irish mark but that's 9lbs lower than when he was 5th as topweight last GN. Will carry 10.12 this time but will have to show something special in the remaining weeks before Aintree (season's debut on Saturday) to have the requisite stat-profile after a torrid season last year. Magic Of Light gets 156, a very workable mark given her other stats. Given their respective form since the 2019 GN (the lady's notched 3 wins vs scoreless Tiger and the Fly), it's not unreasonable to conclude she's relatively well-treated. Otherwise most of the Irish-trained have received at least 1lb more than their current Irish marks though Martin Greenwood's confirmed a soft spot for the ladies by permitting 3 other Irish mares (Shattered Love, Agusta Gold and Moyhenna), all of whom have to differing degrees interesting GN profiles, to run off their current Irish marks. Same goes, importantly, for Discorama.
As regards turds,
as @PolzeathNick has noted, Alpha Des Obeaux (presumably off the back of his 2019 Becher 3rd) got
6lbs more than his current Irish mark. At 152 he'll carry only 10.09 but stats-wise he'd have to run a sensational chase prep to give himself a chance. Gordon's mentioned the XC, which in theory could do it but it's a humungous ask at level weights with Tiger, Easysland and other XC specialists. Minella
Times (particularly) and Milan Native had promising profiles but an extra 2lbs on their Irish marks has put a dent in their stat-ratings. They could be back in contention with an impressive run in the right prep.
So, having quickly reviewed the top 77 (down to and including OR142, who would be 3lbs out of the handicap if at least one of Bristol De Mai, Santini and Easysland lines up), rescreening them with my new Overlay (based only on GNs 2013~19), the current highest ratings are as below:
Bear in mind that 0 or 1 fail of the 10-test screen indicates (obviously) the best winning chance (11 of 13 winners or near-missers since 2013 had 0 or 1 fail). 2 fails (providing there is also some positive stat on the CV) indicates "strong place potential", with outside chance of winning (the other 2 winners/near-missers 2013-19 had 2 fails and a positive stat on their CV). Naturally, the strength of that outside chance is lesser or greater based on the number of 0~1 fail candidates.
In brief, buckle up for a possible gobstopping winner of the 2021 GN at 80~100/1.
Strong Place Potential(2 fails + positive stat): Discorama (40/1), Magic Of Light (20/1)
Borderline (3rd fail that's borderline + positive stat): Lord Du Mesnil (50/1)
Will post summaries of the CVs of each of these shortly but some important news items:
Kimberlite Candy was entered for Saturday's 3m chase at Ascot (49 days prior to the big one) but has not been declared, which suggests that Lacey may be intending to go straight to Aintree. He does go well fresh (1st or 2nd in 5 of 7 runs after a 50+ day break) but his stat-rating above does presume a final prep. If he were to head straight there, it would mean a stat-bashing 126 days since his last run (no GN winner or near-misser >84 days since Clan Royal [132 days] snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in 2004 when he wandered badly after the last [jockey had dropped his whip 5 out] and Amberleigh House caught him - indeed Clan Royal's only run that season was also in the Becher Chase and he too carried JP's green and gold! Spooky, .........it's like deja vu all over again). Sans-prep, he'd still figure especially on Soft or Worse but his rating would be relegated one level in each case. Lord Du Mesnil is declared to run in Haydock's GN Trial on Saturday, a race that he near-missed in a year ago off 2lb lower mark but he also had much less on his back last time. It's a stiff task with 11.09 on Saturday but his record at the track is 3 wins or near-misses from 3 and conditions will suit. However, even a win wouldn't improve his GN profile as, with only 9 declared, he can't remedy his borderline fail - he's never made the frame in a 15+ runner race (most is 14 for him). Remains a strong e/w player in a GN on testing ground. Moyhenna may be targeted at Fairyhouse instead of Aintree Nicholls would like to run Yala Enki in a GN but needs to persuade the owners Discorama hasn't run since disappointing in the 3.5m chase at Cheltenham in November. Had a (2nd) wind op after that race and is reported to be coming back well and definitely aimed at the GN. Prep plan under consideration. Based on last season’s Ultima and, collaterally, November’s Hennessy, he’s 6lbs well in with both The Conditional and Cloth Cap. Both Cloth Cap (raised 1lb on collateral form after Aye Right's fine run at Donny) and Minella Times (given 2lbs more than his Irish chase mark) have suffered borderline 3rd fails at the hands of the handicapper. Either or both could remedy that with a strong 3m+ chase prep but at best neither is likely to make it to only 1 fail. Cloth Cap is likely to run either in the old Racing Post Chase at Kempton or in Donny's Grimthorpe. Minella Times' plans are yet to be revealed but a Festival spin is presumably on the cards.
Excellent win, making every yard under 11.09, by Lord Du Mesnil in the GN Trial at Haydock on Soft. That's 4 wins (or near-misses) from 4 at the track and an impressive 6 wins (or near-misses) from 7 chases at 3m+ on officially Soft~Heavy (and the miss, in the Welsh GN, was on ground that rode as GS). Importantly, it's his first win since his close 2nd in the always-gruelling 30f Novice chase at the last Festival. Always a concern that that race can take a heavy and long-lasting toll.
He has 3 fails of my Model's new Screen test (0~2 is needed) providing that the ground is Soft or softer. But, as noted previously, 1 fail is borderline (largest field in which he has made the frame in a chase is 14 - threshold is 15 but he ran respectably and completed in fields of 18 in the Welsh GN and December's Grand Sefton over an inadequate trip; but a run that showed he handles the GN fences nicely enough. Has multiple "plus points" to his stat-profile, including that high strike rate when conditions suit, and will carry just 10.06 at Aintree. Front-running style always a plus to minimise the risk of traffic problems and very happy to have him antepost at 50s (now cut to 40s antepost with bet365 and 25s NRNB with Paddy). A key member of the team if it's Soft or softer on 10 April. Trainer Richard Hobson says he'll likely now keep him fresh for Aintree, 49 days from today.
Comments
I really appreciate your kind comment @ISawLeaburnScore Very glad that my ramblings are of interest. Cheers
And that's a very accurate observation and summary re the change in emphasis in the race - I'd have taken 12 paras to say what you put very succinctly!!
I'll say a tad more about the progressive (second season chasers/8 yos) vs old fashioned types after the weights are out.
I'd just add though that one thing hasn't changed and that's the importance of absolute weight.
Notwithstanding the fine and worthy win with 11.09 by the obviously high class Many Clouds in 2015 (though I do believe he was somewhat fortunate that misfortune befell 3 rivals - The Druids Nephew (fell 6 out when leading and travelling strongly), Saint Are (<2L runner up but bad mistakes) and Monbeg Dude (6L 3rd but horrible traffic problems), Ruby was spot on when he said in 2019 [I paraphrase]:
"Over 11st, every pound becomes [exponentially] harder to carry...... Ideally, I think you would be looking for a horse with 11st, or just below, to ride in the Grand National."
So class is more important but, obviously, class at the right weight in both relative and absolute terms.
Especially with the handicapper now less keen to compress the topweights (Many Clouds was also the beneficiary of 5lbs compression), the "archetype" for the classier GN contender is probably that runner that's been knocking on the door in Class 1s at 24~26f (around the low 150s in the handicap) and unexposed over further. It's finding the right one!!
In any event I think there will always be room for (the right sort of) proven stayers down the handicap to run a big race, including the old-fashioned sort in the right conditions.
Have a nice Sunday!
Aintree is a possibility for Aye Right after yesterday's fine run it seems
As reported in the RP this pm:
Graham reported Aye Right, who also finished second in the Ladbrokes Trophy, to be in fine health after his Doncaster exertions but revealed his spring plans are not yet set in stone.
The Scottish Grand National at Ayr, Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and a crack at the Grand National at Aintree are all under consideration, and the Jedburgh-based trainer firmly believes her stable star is good enough to win a national.
Reflecting on Saturday's race, Graham said: "I was absolutely gutted. I felt quite sick to be honest, but I was so proud and I’ve never seen a horse recover so quickly from a race. We’re really pleased and excited for him and we need to make a proper plan now for the spring.
"Before going into Doncaster we were talking about the Ultima at Cheltenham and then maybe Ayr. There has been some chatter going around about Aintree and I think he’s a type that could win a National with his jumping and rhythm, so that’s a conversation we’ll need to have."
Showing RPR157 for his 2nd yesterday (was 155 a couple of hours ago so they still seem to be thinking about it!), which would be a career-high (156 for his Hennessy 2nd) and 6lbs higher than his current OR151.
The latter may, of course, change on Tuesday. Stats-wise, he needs to maintain a 5lb margin, RPR vs GNOR, to confirm a winning calibre stat-rating on decent ground, based on the 2013-19 Overlay for the model. Obviously that 5lb margin is touch and go.
Shortened up a nadge on the Exchange today to c 30.
Disappointing news for Aye Right. Handicapper's upped his mark 3lbs this morning to 154 for his gallant 2nd in the Great Yorkshire.
A tad harsh IMHO (the fella's been put up a total of 8lbs now without winning) and, from a stats perspective, that will likely cook his goose as regards carrying my shilling at Aintree. Still capable of a big run (maybe a minor place) but sadly no cigar, based on my Overlay's assessment.
Hate to say that because he's a fine sort for Aintree but he'll now have to run to a new RPR best in a prep to be on my team.
But collateral implications also for Cloth Cap, raised another 1lb because of the revision to Aye Right's mark. CC now on 148 and that may tip the balance against him also as regards winning stat-profile, unless he too scores or goes close in his prep.
But obviously a long way to go yet. More anon.
106 entries for the biggy.
Aye Right does not have an entry this time.
All the expected names do, so far as I can tell from a quick glance, but some notable and disappointing absentees from my model's perspective include Crosspark and Kildisart (is he injured?). As expected, Native River’s owners aren’t keen and Vinndication has other plans this year.
However, pleased to say my 100/1 e/w fancy Minellacelebration holds a ticket. Trainer has held it as an objective/dream for him to run and he should make the cut off 148.
Weights out in a fortnight.
66 days and counting
Notwithstanding several disappointments since his Novice Chase win at The Festival, if he scores at Musselburgh carrying 11.12 (4/1 fav), he’ll have the stat-profile to be in contention at the business end on 10 April, likely carrying not much more than minimum 10 stone (currently top price 40s).
Can’t get terribly excited about the rearranged Cotswold Chase at Sandown over a shortened trip. Only Yala Enki would potentially hold any interest for me with the GN in mind and only then if it were soft in April.
Obviously won't have the mark now to ensure a run at Aintree but I wouldn't be too negative after that 4th today. He's performed a lot better since his wind op and it was a big ask to win today in the conditions so soon after his staying-on effort at Warwick.
That Warwick run confirmed he lacks gears but, now with a chance for a break, the stamina test of a Midlands National should be right up his street and, if Yala Enki runs there (as Nicholls has suggested), LB will carry well below 11 stone in the Uttoxeter marathon.
More anon.
PS Sadly Stay Humble fatally injured falling at the penultimate fence in the Edinburgh National.
Sorry to be slow replying - voltage drop and consequent boiler outage causing much consternation in the Molloy household since last night - thankfully rectified this morning.
Very good point. He ran a blinder (again) yesterday and, among the "quality" 3 milers, I totally agree with you that 50s is too rich and seriously begs the question.
Elliott's entered him for the last 2 GNs and, even though he's thrown his entire stable in some years!!, one can reasonably assume he fancies him taking a shot at a GN one day (might still fancy him for a different prize this year but you never know).
Just before explaining how the Model rates him, I owe you one for prompting me to look at the recent outperformance of progressive types. Based on a meaningful outperformance not just of 8 yos but 2nd season chasers of all ages (even 13 yo Vics Canvas 3rd in 2016 was a 2nd season fencer), a 10th test has been added to my Overlay (I'll explain it another time) which further sharpens the model's back-tested results. It is a little relevant to your question as well.
So, The Storyteller and my model's rating (bear in mind that the Overlay permits up to 2 fails).
Crudely he currently fails 4 tests but, importantly, the 4 "outliers" for the Overlay that made the frame 2013-19 (Alvarado x2, Shutthefrontdoor and Gilgamboa) had 5 fails. The model is about improving the %s but so too is an assessment of odds and "value" and, at the right price, a potential outlier for the Model can still be a great e/w bet and even a stat-busting winner of course. Though I'll always go with my model, I'd never want to deter someone from backing any runner they reckon to be a value proposition. And I can well see why you might with The Storyteller, who from the way he runs shapes promisingly for the test.
However, the specific test fails:
1. RPR vs GN mark
If carrying 11.04+ (likely) on 10 April, he needs to have a best same-season 3m+ chase RPR 6+lbs better than his GN mark (all 5 with 11.04+ to finish 1~5 2013-19 were 6+).
The Storyteller was OR162 prior to yesterday but surely will be raised for his 2L defeat to 168-rated Kemboy. RP has already assigned him a career-best RPR 167 (up 2) for yesterday's run, which seems about right. One point to note in favour of him representing potential value, his 2 best chase RPRs have now been set at the furthest trip he's tried, 24.5f. His best hurdles RPR was also over the furthest he ran (24f).
Strictly as regards the test, currently he's +5 so a near-miss but it'll likely worsen with a revised mark.
2 & 3. No form at 26f+ and carrying 11.02+
It may seem unfair (or a flaw in the model) as he's yet to race at 25f+ but it's his lack of 26f+ form that the model doesn't like and which accounts for 2 of his failed tests (in fact, because of that highest RPR at furthest tried, he is treated by the Model as potentially progressive at further and so he avoids a 5th fail and is treated like he were a 2nd season chaser even though he's in his 4th season fencing).
Why 2 fails?
The Model demands that any runner has form at 26f but, carrying 11.02+ (as he certainly will), compounds the fail. Why?
- From 1987~2019, all 29 runners to make the frame (1~5) in a GN that carried 11.02+ had previously won at 26f+ or been placed in a Gold Cup or 29f+ National. And from 2013~2019, of the 19 runners to carry 11.02+ without any career form at 26f+, the best was Valseur Lido's 8th in 2018.
- Only 3 runners that had no 26f+ form have made 1~5 in a GN 2013-19 (Double Seven 2014, Gilgamboa 2016 and Magic of Light 2019). All 3 were 8 yos in their 2nd season chasing and carried <11.02.
4. PedigreeNo Wild Risk on his damside, so fails this test. No stamina-endorsing relatives of note, though he is from the family of the top Hunter Chaser and winner over the GN fences and at The Festival, Elegant Lord. And, his Dam-Sire is Bob Back who was also Dam-Sire to Many Clouds and my #1 fav stayer of recent years Synchronised. Doesn't guarantee it but could support him being competitive at an extended trip.
The changing profile of a GN winner's Dam-Sire
Bob Back is particularly noteworthy as a Dam-Sire in that, since the GN course changes, he's representative of the marked prevalence of Dam-Sires of successful GN runners that have also sired a Group 1 winner on the flat, frequently at 12f+ (Bob's Return in Bob Back's case).
Aside from Many Clouds, the dam-sires of Auroras Encore and Cause Of Causes (both Rainbow Quest), One For Arthur (Trempolino), Balthazar King (Hernando), Rule The World (Persian Bold) and Tiger Roll (Entrepreneur) - so of 6 of the last 7 winners - had all done likewise.
Of course breeding patterns evolve but, in contrast, of the 2005-2012 GN winners/near-missers, only 2010's winner and runner-up Don't Push and Black Apalachi had such a Dam-Sire (Alleged & Be My Native respectively). The change would seem logically to reflect the greater emphasis on stamina at speed, and a somewhat lesser jumping test.
Again, encouragingly for The Storyteller's potential value, 2 of the 3 to make 1~5 in a recent GN without prior form at 26f+, Gilgamboa and Magic Of Light, also had Dam-Sires that had sired a Group 1 winner or near-misser (2L) - Be My Native and Saumarez respectively.
Just to conclude on The Storyteller's stat-profile, he ticks a number of other boxes: plenty high-enough hurdle RPR159, won in the hurly burly of a 22-runner Festival chase, won on Y and on Soft, decent record in spring and a strong record this season (5 wins/near-misses from 8 outings since 1 July) - a busy campaign is not a hindrance (Pineau De Re 9 runs 5 wins/n-m, Rule The World 6 runs 2 w/n-m).
I hope that helps/illuminates some things. Despite not passing the model's threshold, it would not surprise me at all to see him run a big one on 10 April, if he lines up.
All the best.
Two fairly hefty minuses then... weight and lack of big trip experience (which also combine to exacerbate one another).
I am however intrigued at the value angle. 50/1 AP for 5 places in one firm, as short as 20/1 elsewhere (although that's 4, 1/4). Whereas 38 on Betfair... It's not a particularly well-formed market before Cheltenham and lots of trials and for some other big hitters like Santini and Bristol de Mai (doubtful runners too) there are wide disparities too but given how he's stepped forward in higher class company, I'd be prepared to take a swing at 50s.
Not sure about charging - I can talk total bollocks at times (at least according to Mrs M) and don't fancy getting sued
As usual, you've hit the nail on the head and summarised my schpeel perfectly in a single sentence.
Downwards OR movement at the top of the GN entries sees Santini -3 to 167 (but I can't imagine Henderson taking him to Aintree 3 weeks after a GC tilt) and Delta Work -2 to 168. Lake View Lad cops a significant break and is dropped 5lbs just one race after being hiked 8 for his impressive defeat of Saturday's winner and Santini.
Bristol de Mai will bypass The Festival for a tilt at the GN (according to NTD) and is unchanged on 169, making him the likely topweight for Aintree (Tiger still being on 168).
He was entered last time when on 170 and compressed 2 to 168. So I can't see him being allotted anything less that 167. The handicapper could make this the year to abandon compression altogether (which they'd like to do and would be welcome IMHO) but my best guess is that (as a gesture to O'Leary and a repeat of last year's 1lb concession to Tiger) he'll drop BDM to either 167 or 168 (Tiger to a lb below him) and, barring injury, BDM will set the top mark for the race (which would be the highest GN OR since 1999 - the last race pre-compression, when Bobbyjo won from a stone out of the handicap and topweight was Suny Bay off OR169).
We'll find out for sure next Tuesday of course.
The Storyteller's been put up 3lbs by the Irish handicapper to 165 (Kemboy up 1 to 169 for what it's worth), making it likely that he'd have at least 11.07 to carry if the British handicapper follows suit. A big ask for sure and maybe the spread of antepost prices reflects the doubt about him taking part - interesting that PP are top price 50s, perhaps suggesting not.
TBH, Bob's 22/1 for him for the Stayers Hurdle looks very appealing to me. with his record at The Festival, if he takes up that engagement. Wouldn't preclude a run on 10 April if connections do fancy it.
More anon.
The Midlands National is his confirmed target and, even with the topweight he's sure to carry, that should be right up his street.
The GN is just 3 weeks later and, though he's renowned for taking his races really well, it would be a huge ask to run at Aintree after a 34f slog in Uttoexeter's mud with topweight.
Despite his entry, maybe Nicholls considers his jumping too economical (risky) for the GN fences and has mentally written it off - his first fence departure in the Becher perhaps persuading him that, like the sadly departed Synchronised, his style is just not suited to a GN, even with the more forgiving nature of the fences these days.
Though Bryony remains positive, PN certainly seems to have gone quiet on the GN for him.
If he were to line up, based on a likely GN topweight allotted 167 (I think less is improbable barring BDM getting injured) he'd carry 11.03.
That's just within the limit of a workable weight, based on his CV, providing there is meaningful cut (at least GS/Sft places). Would need Soft or worse to have a proper chance of winning.
Whether he lines up is the big question however. We'll see.
Delta Work still aimed at the GC. No word on The Storyteller other than copious praise for his fine effort on Sunday and to confirm the stayers hurdle at The Festival (I've availed myself of Bob's 22s).
update coming shortly.
Was 3rd off 159 in the Becher in 2019, and fancied enough for this last year but obviously never got to see what might've been. Since then he's struck me as a total non-trier on just about every start either blasting out in front and having no chance lasting home or never being put into the race.
There's a chance he's a bit gone, but it's noticeable that his Irish mark has come down to 149 now. At 70+ on Betfair think he's quite interesting.
He's flashing away very brightly on my radar screen off his current mark.
Carried 11.12 in that fine Becher run (obviously well-in now vs Kimberlite Candy on that) and, aside from the nice run cut short in the 2018 GN, was unlucky in his only other attempt at 3.5m+ when horribly hampered in the 2017 Irish GN (recovering well to finish 8th behind the mighty Our Duke) off a similar mark to now.
Entered for Sunday's Irish GN Trial. Keeping a very close eye on him, if he runs, and the mare Moyhenna in that race, though she may be more likely bound for Fairyhouse.
If his 2 encouraging spins over the GN fences are anything to go by, strikes me he could do an Oscar Time (fine run in 4th in 2013, having near-missed in 2011), who'd had a wretched season but, even without a drop in mark, was like a new horse again back over the spruce.
I've had a cash-outable e/w dabble with bet365 at 66s.
Just been chipping away at him win only on the exchange. Two reasons - 1. not sure about his ew prospects, has been fairly dire this season so relying on him bouncing back, in which case must go close to winning. Strikes me as a win or bust maybe? 2. shops are shut, so not got any meaningful access to online ew prices lol
Very fair point.I've been hoovering up Minellacelebration on exchanges, whose got the stats IMO to be a 100/1 gobstopper on a decent surface, so I'll happily shoot for the place money on ADO
No Denman Chase tomorrow sadly but there's a couple of very interesting declarations for the 3.5 mile Class B Irish GN Trial at Punchestown on Sunday.
@PolzeathNick has already picked out Alpha Des Obeaux (66/1) and he'll be nominal topweight on Sunday, but have 7lbs taken off by his claiming pilot, for this 3rd attempt at 3.5m+. As noted above, his first 2 having shown quiet promise.
With GN weights out on Tuesday, Gordon may prefer that ADO disappears off the edge of the TV screen once again before the business end (33/1 for the race suggests he will, intentionally or otherwise), but if he were to win or go close on Sunday (or if not then, in a subsequent chase prep), he would confirm a contender's rating for Aintree, providing his GN mark is no higher than low-150s.
But he's not the only runner in the race of interest with Aintree in mind.
It's been 70 years since a mare crossed the line first in a GN. Magic Of Light currently has the stat-profile to go one better than last time but there are 2 other mares flashing away on the GN radar screen that could do so (Agusta Gold, who funnily enough is related to Aye Right, though she's said to be aimed at Fairyhouse) and, running in Sunday's Irish GN Trial:
Moyhenna (10/1 for Sunday, 66/1 GN)
Be warned, she may also have Fairyhouse as her preferred target.
A 9yo unexposed beyond 25f, she stayed on strongly, losing on the nod to Cabernet Queen, in September's Kerry National on Soft (Montys Pass won and Rule The World near-missed in the late-summer Kerry National prior to their GN wins). She was off 141 that day, since when she's run with credit though meeting misfortune off her current mark 145.
Very much shapes like she'd improve over an extended trip and, again, a win or near-miss tomorrow would confirm a contender's stat-rating for Aintree but whether connections opt for the Irish GN instead is anyone's guess.
Aside from Wild Risk's presence via both sire and dam, she ticks the increasingly significant stat-box for a post-2012 GN of having a damsire (Montjeu) that won a 12f+ Group 1 itself and sired a runner that did likewise - Derby winner Authorised, who in turn sired Tiger Roll.
Finally, having now put the slide rule over 76 of the 106 GN entries - all those rated 142 or more (I suspect that's where we'll see the cut once again this year) and a sprinkling of those lower that would probably run if given the chance, there's one more bright radar-screen-flasher to highlight.
Minella Times (50/1)
JP's not averse to letting his promising, unexposed chasers take their chance in a GN and, while he's had some failures that were fancied, he's had more than a sprinkling of succeess - King John's Castle (2008), Double Seven (2014) and Gilgamboa (2016) all making the frame with no prior form beyond 25f.
Minella Times is another progressive 8 yo bearing the green and gold hoops, with 2 near-misses over his only attempts at 3m, including a not-stopping 4.5L 2nd in the Paddy Power Handicap in December - a race that's typically a good proxy for the hurly burly of a GN and which Anibale Fly and Colbert Station both won and Gilgamboa placed in prior to their first GN tilts.
Sired by Oscar (whose progeny include GN frame-makers Oscar Time and Teaforthree), he's from the family of strong stayer Rambling Minster. Wild Risk on his damside ticks that specific box.
If he takes his chance at Aintree and the surface is too quick for Kimberlite Candy, he'd be JP's best chance of success according to my model's rating of his current stats, with strong place potential.
And if he obliged, it would more likely be his jockey making the big headlines - in all probability being Rachel Blackmore, who’s 4 wins/near-misses from 4 on board him.
So, as things stand at this very second, assuming weights are allotted in line with current ORs (Irish if no British mark as yet), that the topweight runs off 167 and that all have an uneventful prep, of those that are definitely or probably Aintree-bound, the top 6 as rated by my stat-model are:
Preferring Good or Good-to-Soft
Could be a big night at John Nallen’s Hotel Minella!
Preferring Soft or Heavy:
But many wheels still turning of course. An extra 1lb differential between OR and RPR for his Hennessy win (now 4lbs) would see Cloth Cap re-enter the equation on a sound surface.
Onward and upward.
COYR.
In a little over 24 hours we'll have the GN weights announced - cue temper tantrum (the handicapper will not oblige O'Leary - in fact it wouldn't surprise me if he takes the opportunity to dispense with compression of the top ratings once and for all) and potentially weeks of fatuous speculation about Tiger's participation. Regardless of O'Leary's kvetchings, IMHO that will depend less on the handicapper than the horse's form - he wins the XC, he runs at Aintree, otherwise no.
Well, Bob was deeply underwhelmed by yesterday's Irish GNT at Punchestown- sending all 3 runners with Aintree entries now out to 80s.
In the eye of the beholder of course but to mine (and seemingly the Racing Post's, who've accorded her a career-best matching RPR147), Moyhenna, the de facto topweight, was quietly notable, staying on over the last 6f very gamely from out the back, having once again encountered traffic problems - twice hampered/inconvenienced by fallers and squeezed up on an early bend. It looked at the last like she would go on to win but the front 2 with lighter burdens quickened away to leave her 7L 3rd (at least the distance if not the placing reflecting the earlier misfortunes).
One-paced at the finish she may have been but, for me, she confirmed her competitiveness at 3.5m on her first attempt and, doing so on testing ground with 11.06, her capacity for further with a much lighter load - enough now on her CV to confirm her GN stat-rating of strong place potential, providing it's Soft or Heavy.
If adopted tomorrow, her current Irish mark of 145 should guarantee her a run but the question is whether Aintree or Fairyhouse (5 days earlier this year, on 5 April) is the preference. She did have an early entry for the Welsh GN, so presumably it's not a frivolous option to cross the puddle to shoot for a big prize but it may well be weather dependent.
Bet365's an outlier at 80s but that's antepost right now (exchange offers 100~120 - had to avail myself of 200+ over the last few days
More anon.
Tiger Roll allotted OR166 (same mark that Many Clouds had when defending his crown in 2016).
Cue kvetchings from the plonker.
More anon
Timeform’s Grand National weight-adjusted ratings
Well, the handicapper has opined and, with seemingly scant reference to who's been naughty or nice, has bestowed a gift on some and a turd on others as regards their GN marks and chances.
In summary:
Other than the topweight Bristol De Mai being compressed 2lbs from 169 to 167, all the British trained runners run off their current marks.
For the Irish, as we know, Tiger Roll gets 166 (so carries 11.09) which seems fair to (almost) everyone.
On paper, the only other frame-makers from 2019 offering a rematch, Magic Of Light (156) and Anibale Fly (155), will now be on level terms with Tiger based on the distances in that race. Anibale Fly (allotted 155) gets 5lbs more than his current Irish mark but that's 9lbs lower than when he was 5th as topweight last GN. Will carry 10.12 this time but will have to show something special in the remaining weeks before Aintree (season's debut on Saturday) to have the requisite stat-profile after a torrid season last year.
Magic Of Light gets 156, a very workable mark given her other stats. Given their respective form since the 2019 GN (the lady's notched 3 wins vs scoreless Tiger and the Fly), it's not unreasonable to conclude she's relatively well-treated.
Otherwise most of the Irish-trained have received at least 1lb more than their current Irish marks though Martin Greenwood's confirmed a soft spot for the ladies by permitting 3 other Irish mares (Shattered Love, Agusta Gold and Moyhenna), all of whom have to differing degrees interesting GN profiles, to run off their current Irish marks. Same goes, importantly, for Discorama.
As regards turds, as @PolzeathNick has noted, Alpha Des Obeaux (presumably off the back of his 2019 Becher 3rd) got 6lbs more than his current Irish mark. At 152 he'll carry only 10.09 but stats-wise he'd have to run a sensational chase prep to give himself a chance. Gordon's mentioned the XC, which in theory could do it but it's a humungous ask at level weights with Tiger, Easysland and other XC specialists.
Minella Times (particularly) and Milan Native had promising profiles but an extra 2lbs on their Irish marks has put a dent in their stat-ratings. They could be back in contention with an impressive run in the right prep.
So, having quickly reviewed the top 77 (down to and including OR142, who would be 3lbs out of the handicap if at least one of Bristol De Mai, Santini and Easysland lines up), rescreening them with my new Overlay (based only on GNs 2013~19), the current highest ratings are as below:
Bear in mind that 0 or 1 fail of the 10-test screen indicates (obviously) the best winning chance (11 of 13 winners or near-missers since 2013 had 0 or 1 fail). 2 fails (providing there is also some positive stat on the CV) indicates "strong place potential", with outside chance of winning (the other 2 winners/near-missers 2013-19 had 2 fails and a positive stat on their CV). Naturally, the strength of that outside chance is lesser or greater based on the number of 0~1 fail candidates.
In brief, buckle up for a possible gobstopping winner of the 2021 GN at 80~100/1.
If going is Good-to-Soft (i.e. decent):
- Borderline (3rd fail that's borderline + positive stat): Cloth Cap (14/1), Minella Times (50/1)
If going is Soft or worse:Will post summaries of the CVs of each of these shortly but some important news items:
Kimberlite Candy was entered for Saturday's 3m chase at Ascot (49 days prior to the big one) but has not been declared, which suggests that Lacey may be intending to go straight to Aintree. He does go well fresh (1st or 2nd in 5 of 7 runs after a 50+ day break) but his stat-rating above does presume a final prep. If he were to head straight there, it would mean a stat-bashing 126 days since his last run (no GN winner or near-misser >84 days since Clan Royal [132 days] snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in 2004 when he wandered badly after the last [jockey had dropped his whip 5 out] and Amberleigh House caught him - indeed Clan Royal's only run that season was also in the Becher Chase and he too carried JP's green and gold! Spooky, .........it's like deja vu all over again). Sans-prep, he'd still figure especially on Soft or Worse but his rating would be relegated one level in each case.
Lord Du Mesnil is declared to run in Haydock's GN Trial on Saturday, a race that he near-missed in a year ago off 2lb lower mark but he also had much less on his back last time. It's a stiff task with 11.09 on Saturday but his record at the track is 3 wins or near-misses from 3 and conditions will suit. However, even a win wouldn't improve his GN profile as, with only 9 declared, he can't remedy his borderline fail - he's never made the frame in a 15+ runner race (most is 14 for him). Remains a strong e/w player in a GN on testing ground.
Moyhenna may be targeted at Fairyhouse instead of Aintree
Nicholls would like to run Yala Enki in a GN but needs to persuade the owners
Discorama hasn't run since disappointing in the 3.5m chase at Cheltenham in November. Had a (2nd) wind op after that race and is reported to be coming back well and definitely aimed at the GN. Prep plan under consideration. Based on last season’s Ultima and, collaterally, November’s Hennessy, he’s 6lbs well in with both The Conditional and Cloth Cap.
Both Cloth Cap (raised 1lb on collateral form after Aye Right's fine run at Donny) and Minella Times (given 2lbs more than his Irish chase mark) have suffered borderline 3rd fails at the hands of the handicapper. Either or both could remedy that with a strong 3m+ chase prep but at best neither is likely to make it to only 1 fail. Cloth Cap is likely to run either in the old Racing Post Chase at Kempton or in Donny's Grimthorpe. Minella Times' plans are yet to be revealed but a Festival spin is presumably on the cards.
More anon.
That's 4 wins (or near-misses) from 4 at the track and an impressive 6 wins (or near-misses) from 7 chases at 3m+ on officially Soft~Heavy (and the miss, in the Welsh GN, was on ground that rode as GS).
Importantly, it's his first win since his close 2nd in the always-gruelling 30f Novice chase at the last Festival. Always a concern that that race can take a heavy and long-lasting toll.
He has 3 fails of my Model's new Screen test (0~2 is needed) providing that the ground is Soft or softer. But, as noted previously, 1 fail is borderline (largest field in which he has made the frame in a chase is 14 - threshold is 15 but he ran respectably and completed in fields of 18 in the Welsh GN and December's Grand Sefton over an inadequate trip; but a run that showed he handles the GN fences nicely enough.
Has multiple "plus points" to his stat-profile, including that high strike rate when conditions suit, and will carry just 10.06 at Aintree.
Front-running style always a plus to minimise the risk of traffic problems and very happy to have him antepost at 50s (now cut to 40s antepost with bet365 and 25s NRNB with Paddy). A key member of the team if it's Soft or softer on 10 April.
Trainer Richard Hobson says he'll likely now keep him fresh for Aintree, 49 days from today.