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Mathematics and this season

AFKABartramAFKABartram
in General Charlton
So after 8 games we are 11 points off automatic promotion and 8 points off the last play off spot. 

What (in your opinion) are the realistic markers through the season of how many points off those spots after x games where you mentally accept they definitely won’t be achieved as too big a gap to make up? 
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Comments

  • clb74clb74
    edited September 2021
    AFKABartram said:
    So after 8 games we are 11 points off automatic promotion and 8 points off the last play off spot. 

    What (in your opinion) are the realistic markers through the season of how many points off those spots after x games where you mentally accept they definitely won’t be achieved as too big a gap to make up? 
    I've already mentally accepted it.
  • Cafc43v3rCafc43v3r
    If it ever gets to 20 it's over.  So probably mid October...... 
  • ElliotCAFCElliotCAFC
    AFKABartram said:
    So after 8 games we are 11 points off automatic promotion and 8 points off the last play off spot. 

    What (in your opinion) are the realistic markers through the season of how many points off those spots after x games where you mentally accept they definitely won’t be achieved as too big a gap to make up? 
    I think it’s already too big a gap to makeup. We’d have to put on a great run and I can’t see that coming anytime soon. 

    The big boys will only get better and they’ve already got a huge gap as a safety net. 
  • AFKABartramAFKABartram
    clb74 said:
    AFKABartram said:
    So after 8 games we are 11 points off automatic promotion and 8 points off the last play off spot. 

    What (in your opinion) are the realistic markers through the season of how many points off those spots after x games where you mentally accept they definitely won’t be achieved as too big a gap to make up? 
    I've already mentally accepted it.
    That may prove correct but if we win the next two games we’d be something like 4 points off the play offs with 36 games to go, which would Ben ridiculously premature to write off at that stage. 
  • RodneyCharltonTrottaRodneyCharltonTrotta
    edited September 2021
    AFKABartram said:
    clb74 said:
    AFKABartram said:
    So after 8 games we are 11 points off automatic promotion and 8 points off the last play off spot. 

    What (in your opinion) are the realistic markers through the season of how many points off those spots after x games where you mentally accept they definitely won’t be achieved as too big a gap to make up? 
    I've already mentally accepted it.
    That may prove correct but if we win the next two games we’d be something like 4 points off the play offs with 36 games to go, which would Ben ridiculously premature to write off at that stage. 

    That's assuming none of the teams in the playoffs pick up points in the next 2 games.
  • letthegoodtimesrollletthegoodtimesroll
    edited September 2021
    It’s September, we just need to go from consistent losers to consistent winners pdq, ie starting this Saturday against Pompey.
  • BigRedEvilBigRedEvil
    This team is doing nothing this season. At our best we are average, I think it's going to be a struggle 
  • CAFCTrevCAFCTrev
    edited September 2021
    I think this season will be a repeat of 2016/17.
  • AFKABartramAFKABartram
    RodneyCharltonTrotta said:
    AFKABartram said:
    clb74 said:
    AFKABartram said:
    So after 8 games we are 11 points off automatic promotion and 8 points off the last play off spot. 

    What (in your opinion) are the realistic markers through the season of how many points off those spots after x games where you mentally accept they definitely won’t be achieved as too big a gap to make up? 
    I've already mentally accepted it.
    That may prove correct but if we win the next two games we’d be something like 4 points off the play offs with 36 games to go, which would Ben ridiculously premature to write off at that stage. 

    That's assuming none of the teams in the playoffs pick up points in the next 2 games.
    No it wouldn’t. We’d be 2 points off of that was the case! 
  • guinnessaddickguinnessaddick
    letthegoodtimesroll said:
    It’s September, we just need to go from consistent losers to consistent winners pdq, ie starting this Saturday against Pompey.
    Probably can afford to lose another 5 games for the rest of the season. 😱
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  • clb74clb74
    AFKABartram said:
    clb74 said:
    AFKABartram said:
    So after 8 games we are 11 points off automatic promotion and 8 points off the last play off spot. 

    What (in your opinion) are the realistic markers through the season of how many points off those spots after x games where you mentally accept they definitely won’t be achieved as too big a gap to make up? 
    I've already mentally accepted it.
    That may prove correct but if we win the next two games we’d be something like 4 points off the play offs with 36 games to go, which would Ben ridiculously premature to write off at that stage. 
    Win the next 2 games?
    I'll have some of what your on please.
  • se9addickse9addick
    clb74 said:
    AFKABartram said:
    So after 8 games we are 11 points off automatic promotion and 8 points off the last play off spot. 

    What (in your opinion) are the realistic markers through the season of how many points off those spots after x games where you mentally accept they definitely won’t be achieved as too big a gap to make up? 
    I've already mentally accepted it.
    I think that’s a bit much - we’ve only played 17% of the season, still plenty of time to turn it round and get a playoff spot at least. 
  • bobmunrobobmunro
    Only talking about this earlier with my youngest. I think we need to match the best above us over the next 15 or so games so that we are no further from the top 6 than we are today. Then it's all to play for with perhaps a decent January window thrown in. 

    Big ask of course but averaging 2 points a game until Christmas and it's on. Any further back than we are now and that's the season done. 
  • BR7_addickBR7_addick
    I feel if we’re not top half (12th will do) of the table by the 23 game mark it’s over, points wise I’m not exactly sure what that is but I’d say roughly 30 points based on final points tallies from the last few seasons, halved.

    So with that in mind we need 25 points from the next 15 games.  Sounds tougher when you write it down.  

    So roughly: W7 D4 L4

    Which leaves us with: P23 W8 D6 L9 Pts30

    So the task is massive for Nige, we need promotion chasing form beginning now up till Xmas.  I think if we’re sitting 15/16th after 23 games we definitely won’t make play offs as the points ask will be too much and the psychological block of being bottom half itself.
  • RothkoRothko
    10 points in February would be my point of concern, it's whether you're going to be 4 games better then the teams around you in the run in, it's doable, and you hit the play offs with the momentum. Really can't be doing with writing off the season before the clocks have gone back 
  • clb74clb74
    se9addick said:
    clb74 said:
    AFKABartram said:
    So after 8 games we are 11 points off automatic promotion and 8 points off the last play off spot. 

    What (in your opinion) are the realistic markers through the season of how many points off those spots after x games where you mentally accept they definitely won’t be achieved as too big a gap to make up? 
    I've already mentally accepted it.
    I think that’s a bit much - we’ve only played 17% of the season, still plenty of time to turn it round and get a playoff spot at least. 
    Weve got too much going on.
    The players and manager are not going to be given the time.

  • killerandflashkillerandflash
    At a similar time last season, Oxford were 23rd and Blackpool 18th. 

    Blackpool finished 3rd, Oxford 6th

    So yes, the playoffs are still very achievable mathematically
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  • johnnybev1987johnnybev1987
    Far too early, but for every bad result we fall further behind. 

    Are we done yet? No, am i confident at present?No

    Didn't we the year we went up string a ridiculous run together, i'd say 35 points target for half season then we have a solid chance. 

    or shall we do a Bowyer and take 9 games at a time... 
  • ShootersHillGuruShootersHillGuru
    Nothing at all to suggest we’ll be in the mix. Wasted season.
  • MrLargoMrLargo
    Nigel Adkins + poor recruitment = 14th at best
  • Billy_MixBilly_Mix
    golfaddick said:
    People will come on here and say last year Blackpool were in the bottom 4 in September & they managed to get into the play offs so it can be done.

    So, answering your question (and I've not done any googling or past history at points needed) I'd say we need around 74-76 points for the play offs. So that's another 70 points from now on. 

    70 points from 38 games means 20 wins, 10 draws and 8 losses. Easily doable 

    Havent got fixture list in front of me so cant give benchmarks, but by xmas/new year with 23/25 games to go we'd need to be on around 30 -33 points and then hope for a good run for the 2nd half of the season. 
    Gilbey and The Cat's returns definitely improve the squad but the spine of the team is sorely lacking
    The most able CH's thus far are Pearce & Lavelle (!!) both are dog slow, Famewo and Innis ain't gonna appear any more frequently than last season, After that we're looking at Elerewe and Barker - kids.
    There's no replacement for Pratley, Watson's not delivering that organisation, calmness, game/smanship/management, he's just slow.
    DJ phones in 3 performances out of 4, Morgan finds a few passes but is still way off the finished article, Kirk hasn't tried for longer than 15 minutes total, Clare and Dobson are hugely disappointing.
    Lee's been good, too early to say with Arter but they could both be spirited away in January so too Leko.  The better they play, the more likely their clubs will nab them back, that's what they're here for after all.
    Stockers and Washington will be fine but who fills in when they're unavailable?
    CBT has been good, I like Davsion but they're both lacking experience.

    Fees have been paid, those loans won't have come cheap, there won't be much/any room under the spending rules for much/any reinforcement in January. For any manager to get safely away from relegation this season will be an achievement.  For this waffling tosspot in charge it would go down as a certified miracle 😟

  • aliwibblealiwibble
    I'm not even thinking about it promotion/playoffs as a possibility until we start putting in decent performances consistently and start winning more games than we're losing. It feels liking running before we can walk.
  • blackpool72blackpool72
    Mid table for us this season I'm afraid. 
    I just hope that Sandgaard learns from this transfer window. 
    Next season as difficult as it may be bring players in earlier. 
    A full pre season is imperative if we want to get off to a good start. 
  • Exiled_AddickExiled_Addick
    It's quite an even matched league this year - I think a lot of teams could take points off each other which may help keep the points required for the playoffs lower than average. Nonetheless, if you assume 75 points will be required to finish 6th then we already need to average 1.94 points per game for the rest of the season. For context, that is slightly more than we averaged across the whole season in 18/19 when we finished third with 89 points. If you say the target is 70 points (which is usually too few for the playoffs, but has occasionally been enough) then we still need 1.8 points per game for the rest of the season.

    Very hard to see us suddenly producing that form full stop, but certainly almost impossible to see us producing better than that so even if we have a really strong final 3/4 of the season, we may not even make the playoffs.

    I suspect we have already fucked it, but I would say if we don't win at least 4 or 5 of our next 10 matches, we will definitely have too much of a mountain to climb.

    Automatics, bar some absolute miracle, are gone gone gone.
  • letthegoodtimesrollletthegoodtimesroll
    edited September 2021
    Charlton is not the only team to have a poor or indifferent start. When those other teams get themselves sorted as well it’s going to impact the maximum/minimum points needed to go up or qualify for the play offs unless the teams currently near the top start losing form and falling away. We just need to start winning, keep a run going.
  • MrOneLungMrOneLung
    Charlton and Ipswich both finish top 8

    you heard it here first
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