Oh God, don't get me wrong. I have even less confidence than @oohaahmortimer that we will make the play-offs (5% was his last prediction) and think we will finish somewhere between 8th & 12th.
However, the question was asked is it possible & if so how many points are needed at certain timeframes. Of course its possible (Millwall got relegated in 95/96 when top at xmas).....but not possible with the players we currently have. Not replacing Aneke is the main reason why we wont get into the play offs.......and not having a midfielder who can drive forward with the ball (like Dempsey last night) will ensure we end up mid table.
I've been supporting Charlton since about 1995 when I was 8 years old. In that time I vaguely remember us being bottom of the league (1996/7?) Though I couldn't tell you how many games in the was. Since then I've seen us in a fair few relegation battles and the only time I remember us surviving was when we got rid of Powell and had 5 games in hand. I'm sure that every other time we've gone down. Therefore the biggest concern for me is as what point do we say we are in a relegation battle because 26 years of supporting Charlton tells me that when we're in a battle we're going down.
Nobody can ever guarantee promotion, but I do have a (seemingly unrealistic) expectation that a club of Charlton's stature should make the play-offs. I have selected 74 points as a reasonable target for the season, that being sufficient to make the play-offs in eight of the last ten fully complete seasons. In typical Charlton fashion though, we surpassed that last season and it still wasn't enough.
That means we should have been averaging 1.609 points per game from the start of the season. We're managing 0.625ppg at the moment, so it's fair to say we're a little behind schedule. It's still possible though, but we've now have a revised target of 1.816ppg.
As others have said I am seeing nothing to suggest we will/can go on such a run. Poor summer recruitment, poor tactics, no plan B and a lack of football experience in the offices at SE7 leads me to believe it will be mid table at best.
I've been supporting Charlton since about 1995 when I was 8 years old. In that time I vaguely remember us being bottom of the league (1996/7?) Though I couldn't tell you how many games in the was. Since then I've seen us in a fair few relegation battles and the only time I remember us surviving was when we got rid of Powell and had 5 games in hand. I'm sure that every other time we've gone down. Therefore the biggest concern for me is as what point do we say we are in a relegation battle because 26 years of supporting Charlton tells me that when we're in a battle we're going down.
Was born ‘87 and started going roughly same time as you. And I too have an irrational fear this could turn into a relegation battle. Am still haunted by the 08/09 relegation because I was convinced we had decent players and could not explain how we ended up where we did, this feels similar.
We’re the generation who was over privileged with the prem years as kids but slipped into a perpetual state of anxiety as adults post 2007. The older generations will laugh cos we didn’t witness the dark days of Selhurst, but it’s not easy being us, it’s like growing up in a 5 bedroom detached house in blackheath but then only being able to afford a flat in Thamesmead as adults.
6 straight wins last season was a massive boost and we dined off that run for about two months afterwards. While it’s hard to see a run like that at the moment, that’s the kind of thing we need.
I feel if we’re not top half (12th will do) of the table by the 23 game mark it’s over, points wise I’m not exactly sure what that is but I’d say roughly 30 points based on final points tallies from the last few seasons, halved.
So with that in mind we need 25 points from the next 15 games. Sounds tougher when you write it down.
So roughly: W7 D4 L4
Which leaves us with: P23 W8 D6 L9 Pts30
So the task is massive for Nige, we need promotion chasing form beginning now up till Xmas. I think if we’re sitting 15/16th after 23 games we definitely won’t make play offs as the points ask will be too much and the psychological block of being bottom half itself.
If we get 4 points from our next two games we are bang on where I said we need to be to mount a respect charge at play offs.
Oh God, don't get me wrong. I have even less confidence than @oohaahmortimer that we will make the play-offs (5% was his last prediction) and think we will finish somewhere between 8th & 12th.
However, the question was asked is it possible & if so how many points are needed at certain timeframes. Of course its possible (Millwall got relegated in 95/96 when top at xmas).....but not possible with the players we currently have. Not replacing Aneke is the main reason why we wont get into the play offs.......and not having a midfielder who can drive forward with the ball (like Dempsey last night) will ensure we end up mid table.
I stand by this, although we may have found the midfielder in Gilbey. Still missing a replacement for Aneke, esp off the bench.
If the form we have shown under JJ is repeated through the rest of the season, we will end on about 80 points. The same form will have us on the expected points line on Stig's graph at about game 37.
If the form we have shown under JJ is repeated through the rest of the season, we will end on about 80 points. The same form will have us on the expected points line on Stig's graph at about game 37.
If the form we have shown under JJ is repeated through the rest of the season, we will end on about 80 points. The same form will have us on the expected points line on Stig's graph at about game 37.
Is 80 points normally enough for a playoff place?
Yes, 75 or more all but guarantees it.
We were extremely unlucky to miss out with 74 last season.
74, 72, 68, 72, 74, 65. These are the points totals of the teams finishing 7th over the last six completed seasons. In 2015, 66 points was enough for play-offs..!
Comments
However, the question was asked is it possible & if so how many points are needed at certain timeframes. Of course its possible (Millwall got relegated in 95/96 when top at xmas).....but not possible with the players we currently have. Not replacing Aneke is the main reason why we wont get into the play offs.......and not having a midfielder who can drive forward with the ball (like Dempsey last night) will ensure we end up mid table.
That means we should have been averaging 1.609 points per game from the start of the season. We're managing 0.625ppg at the moment, so it's fair to say we're a little behind schedule. It's still possible though, but we've now have a revised target of 1.816ppg.
thing we need.
The whole club needs it. The players, the staff and the fans.
I no longer think much of Adkins but I believe in giving him time.
Time...and adjustment. I probably said I thought he should be sacked...which is just out of frustration of continuously seeing us lose.
The digital age of impatience...constant comparisons and loads of other crap, does kind of make people only see short term solutions.
I am one of them.
Give Adkins the rest of the season and the 1st 3months of next season.
If there hasn't been any form of improvement, then he obviously isn't the answer and he would have to go.
End of the day, we are now a small club.
Let's stop believing we are better then what reality displays.
It's frustrating, yes. Especially for those in attendance and fans who currently make the commitment to go to games.
Any chance of updating your graph @Stig ?
We were extremely unlucky to miss out with 74 last season.
74, 72, 68, 72, 74, 65. These are the points totals of the teams finishing 7th over the last six completed seasons. In 2015, 66 points was enough for play-offs..!
People really do throw away some useful stuff.