World Cup 2026 - USA/Canada/Mexico

Exiled_Addick

And it was the worst kind of offside. Those kind of goals just simply should stand. The offside rule was introduced to stop goal hanging - there is no meaningful advantage from your big toe being in advance of the last but one defender.

stoneroses19

Gutted for Iran!! What a wonderful moment and celebration for everyone. Ruined by VAR.

So harsh to be played onside by a defender yet given offside for being ahead of the ‘second’ defender. 

Exiled_Addick

On the upside, another strong result for the Scots!

Weegie Addick

Exiled_Addick said:

And it was the worst kind of offside. Those kind of goals just simply should stand. The offside rule was introduced to stop goal hanging - there is no meaningful advantage from your big toe being in advance of the last but one defender.

Offside? Thought it was for the ball hitting a hand? Terrible decision whatever. 

Callumcafc

Exiled_Addick said:

And it was the worst kind of offside. Those kind of goals just simply should stand. The offside rule was introduced to stop goal hanging - there is no meaningful advantage from your big toe being in advance of the last but one defender.

The line between onside and offside has to be somewhere - if you moved it 10cm to allow a margin for the attacker, we’d be upset about moments being ruined when they are 11cm offside.

In fact I think such a margin exists these days? Or maybe only in the Premier League. I don’t know I don’t really keep up with it all anymore.

Callumcafc

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

Callumcafc said:

As it stands, the likely round of 32:

Germany v Paraguay
France v Sweden
South Korea v Switzerland
Morocco v Netherlands

Croatia v Portugal
Spain v Austria
USA v Bosnia
Belgium v Czechia

Brazil v Japan
Ivory Coast v Norway
Mexico v Scotland
England v DR Congo

Argentina v Uruguay
Australia v Egypt
Canada v Algeria
Colombia v Ghana

Now everyone has played twice, and running thousands of simulations based on Betfair Exchange odds for the final group games, here are the most likely R32 fixtures:

Germany v Paraguay (46.5% likely)
France v Sweden (50.2%)
South Korea v Switzerland (49.9%)
Netherlands v Morocco (53.5%)

Colombia v Croatia (23.2%)
Spain v Austria (61.3%)
USA v Bosnia (69.3%)
Egypt v Czechia (13.4%)

Brazil v Japan (39.7%)
Ivory Coast v Norway (78.1%)
Mexico v Scotland (49.8%)
England v DR Congo (44.6%)

Argentina v Cape Verde (55.0%)
Australia v Belgium (36.5%)
Canada v Algeria (17.3%)
Portugal v Ghana (27.7%)

Teams in bold are confirmed in position as group winners.

Following the completion of Groups A, B and C:

Germany v Paraguay (46.1%)
France v Sweden (39.9%)
South Africa v Canada (100%)
Netherlands v Morocco (80.7%)

Portugal v Croatia (23.0%)
Spain v Austria (61.6%)
USA v Bosnia (99.9%)
Egypt v South Korea (50.2%)

Brazil v Japan (61.8%)
Ivory Coast v Norway (78.4%)
Mexico v Scotland (23.5%)
England v DR Congo (45.0%)

Argentina v Cape Verde (55.6%)
Australia v Belgium (35.6%)
Switzerland v Algeria (42.6%)
Colombia v Ghana (28.0%)

Teams in bold locked in position. Simulation cannot make up its mind on which ties Colombia and Portugal end up in - a true coin toss scenario. 

Other than that, it looks like Scotland are the most vulnerable with Mexico having numerous possible opponents.

Following completion of Groups D, E, F:

Germany v Paraguay (99.6%)
France v Sweden (80.8%)
South Africa v Canada
Netherlands v Morocco

Colombia v Croatia (22.8%)
Spain v Austria (61.6%)
USA v Bosnia
Egypt v South Korea (33.0%)

Brazil v Japan
Ivory Coast v Norway (81.1%)
Mexico v Ecuador (80.6%)
England v DR Congo (46.5%)

Argentina v Cape Verde (51.6%)
Australia v Belgium (54.0%)
Switzerland v Iran (26.2%)
Portugal v Ghana (27.5%)

Four ties in bold are confirmed so far. Teams in bold locked in position and are waiting on their opponent to be confirmed.

Following completion of Groups G, H, I:

Germany v Paraguay
France v Sweden
South Africa v Canada
Netherlands v Morocco

Portugal v Croatia (22.8%)
Spain v Austria (76.1%)
USA v Bosnia
Belgium v Senegal (45.3%)

Brazil v Japan
Ivory Coast v Norway
Mexico v Ecuador (99.9%)
England v DR Congo (47.4%)

Argentina v Cape Verde
Australia v Egypt
Switzerland v Iran (86.6%)
Colombia v Ghana (26.6%)

Nine ties are confirmed, with a further four teams waiting to have their opponent confirmed. The last three ties (2K v 2L, 1L v 3I/J/K, 1K v 3E/I/L) have neither team confirmed yet.

Chris_from_Sidcup

Cape Verde - 3 points, group runner up, national heroes.
Turkey - 3 points, bottom of their group, go home in disgrace.

Chris_from_Sidcup

Callumcafc said:

Following completion of Group H, only 15 out of 495 possible combinations remain. For the winners of England’s group:

8/15 1L v 3K (DR Congo)
6/15 1L v 3I (Senegal)
1/15 1L v 3J (Algeria?)

I know we play 3rd from group I/J/K but how does it get decided who?

Chris_from_Sidcup

I've only just realised that if Portugal beat Colombia tonight and win group K, then they will probably face Argentina in the quarter final.

Messi v Ronaldo in Kansas 11th July. Ticket resale sites will be going crazy.

KiwiValley

Eli Just nut megged de Bruyne . Nothing else matters.

Exiled_Addick

Callumcafc said:

Exiled_Addick said:

And it was the worst kind of offside. Those kind of goals just simply should stand. The offside rule was introduced to stop goal hanging - there is no meaningful advantage from your big toe being in advance of the last but one defender.

The line between onside and offside has to be somewhere - if you moved it 10cm to allow a margin for the attacker, we’d be upset about moments being ruined when they are 11cm offside.

In fact I think such a margin exists these days? Or maybe only in the Premier League. I don’t know I don’t really keep up with it all anymore.

You might, I wouldn't. To me though, it's not as black and white as that. We want to see goals and we want to see moments like what would've been a dramatic last minute winner for Iran.

I would like to see some consideration for 1) Could the attacker have been reasonably expected to know if they were onside or not? In the instance of tonight's "goal" I'm sure the Iran player thought he was in line and there's no way anyone could have judged otherwise in the heat of the moment and 2) even if they are technically marginally offside, did it gain them a meaningful advantage? I realize that brings some human judgement back into it and we will never have zero controversies, but at least it would be human judgement using slowed down replays and definitive measurements of how far ahead of the line a player is. I'd just like to see a bit more consideration for what a player can reasonably be expected to judge on the field and the spirit of the law so we don't kill goals unnecessarily.

Chris_from_Sidcup

Exiled_Addick said:

Callumcafc said:

Exiled_Addick said:

And it was the worst kind of offside. Those kind of goals just simply should stand. The offside rule was introduced to stop goal hanging - there is no meaningful advantage from your big toe being in advance of the last but one defender.

The line between onside and offside has to be somewhere - if you moved it 10cm to allow a margin for the attacker, we’d be upset about moments being ruined when they are 11cm offside.

In fact I think such a margin exists these days? Or maybe only in the Premier League. I don’t know I don’t really keep up with it all anymore.

You might, I wouldn't. To me though, it's not as black and white as that. We want to see goals and we want to see moments like what would've been a dramatic last minute winner for Iran.

I would like to see some consideration for 1) Could the attacker have been reasonably expected to know if they were inside or not? In the instance of tonight's "goal" I'm sure the Iran player thought he was in line and there's no way anyone could have judged otherwise in the heat of the moment and 2) even if they are technically marginally offside, did it gain them a meaningful advantage? I realize that brings some human judgement back into it and we will never have zero controversies, but at least it would be human judgement using slowed down replays and definitive measurements of how far ahead of the line a player is. I'd just like to see a bit more consideration for what a player can reasonably be expected to judge on the field and the spirit of the law so we don't kill goals unnecessarily.

If we went by this and being 'technically marginally offside' was let go and counted as onside, then where would we draw the line for offside?