Peanuts: when can we expect to see NRNB options? I'm keen to jump on your suggestions but want to learn from last year when I went too early and lost money when those horses didn't run? Ta.
Bloody good question but sadly I have no idea. Combined with the reduced field size, it's a real pisser that it seems to be happening later and later. What's more, for the first time, Bet365 have selectively disapplied Cash Out on antepost bets on the GN. I don't mind a bid-offer spread and a widening one if the odds drift - that's understandable - but I'm stuck with a totally worthless e/w on Stuzzikini (who simply drifted from 80 to 100/1) with no cash out offered at all, but I can cash out KK and Minella Cocooner. Greedy fuckers. I'm stuck with Bet365 because I can't any meaningful size on elsewhere and, to be fair, cash out isn't universally available.
I've only put down part of my intended interest in Vanillier because of the uncertainty whether he'll make the cut. But if he goes well in the XC, 33/1 will disappear for sure. So they'd better go NRNB before the Festival or my GN enterprise becomes increasingly unviable.
To be brutally frank, if Vanillier doesn't make the cut this year, it will probably be the last roll out of my model. If I can't take early prices on entries 45~51 without meaningful risk of total loss when the weights are framed, it's too skewed against, economically. The bookies should have adjusted for the reduced field size by offering NRNB earlier, not later. IMHO, they should do so immediately after the weights. If one of them did so, they'd steal a competitive march because punters will (within reason) pay to have NRNB protection.
Model and betting aside, if Vanillier can't make the cut off the same mark as when near-missing 2 years ago, in my view it will symbolise the final of many nails driven into the coffin of the Grand National over the last 12 years. The handicapper had the discretion to do what they did with Amberleigh House many years ago and bump his OR enough to ensure a run. But they no longer think of that issue. They're all too obsessed with "the quality" of the field, pleasing the big yards and placating critics of the race that will never be placated. Vanillier is with a biggish yard but he symbolises the true staying handicapper that small yards can still legitimately dream of having but is never likely to have a mark to make them eligible if the field is dominated by Grade 1 runners and their likes.
Peanuts ... I thought stakes were returned if a horse is doesn't make the cut and you only lose your stake if he is withdrawn
They are, but there's no guarantee a horse won't be redirected elsewhere if it looks unlikely they'll make the GN cut and be withdrawn prior to Decs - the Topham is the classic alternate entry for some.
Rumours that JP's considering supplementing Inothewayurthinkin for the Gold Cup.
If he does that it must mean he fancies something else at the weights for the GN imo or it could be to confuse everyone.
If he were to, it would also suggest they're confident I Am Maximus will be ready. He did reportedly pick Iroko as his GN horse when he finished close behind Inothewayurthinkin - FWIW Iroko's pedigree ticks more of my GN boxes. In fact, my model has picked out all 3 of his GN winners (Don't Push It, Minella Times & Max) and his GN runners-up (Sunnyhillboy and Cause Of Causes, though not Any Second Now). .... expecting JP's call over the weekend to seek my advice
Not sure being 20L adrift is "very poor" but it was obviously disappointing, but let's hear from Nicholls. There may be a good (or not so good) reason. He seemed to me to balloon some of the fences - whether he was feeling something or being carefully ridden who knows?
It's obviously very reassuring when your fancies win or go close in their preps but the fact is: 4 of the last 11 GN winners were beaten in their final preps by bigger margins than KK was today, as was Pleasant Company, runner-up by just a Head in 2018.
I'll stick with my model, which makes him currently my #1 selection.
Not sure being 20L adrift is "very poor" but it was obviously disappointing, but let's hear from Nicholls. There may be a good (or not so good) reason. He seemed to me to balloon some of the fences - whether he was feeling something or being carefully ridden who knows?
It's obviously very reassuring when your fancies win or go close in their preps but the fact is: 4 of the last 11 GN winners were beaten in their final preps by bigger margins than KK was today, as was Pleasant Company, runner-up by just a Head in 2018.
I'll stick with my model, which makes him currently my #1 selection.
The bookies haven't changed the price but i think money will come for him nearer the day. Being grey will attract money.
General view on Twitter seems to be it was an obvious schooling session for KK today. Did seem to take some of the fences very cautiously and it would make sense, as Nicholls very much wants to keep him fresh.
General view on Twitter seems to be it was an obvious schooling session for KK today. Did seem to take some of the fences very cautiously and it would make sense, as Nicholls very much wants to keep him fresh.
I didn't like the way he settled in with the pack and never seemed to make much effort to win. If he runs like that in the National with 33 opponents he could easily get boxed in and lose his chance.
Could be the jockey's mistake, by the end he managed to get to the edge and was trying to catch up but way too late. But then, who knows what his instructions were for this race.
@PeanutsMolloy I’m at Doncaster today, any thoughts on the Grimthorpe?
Not had an in depth look but I'm a Twig fan and have backed him today. Have fun @Plaaayer Cheers
Trust you ignored my naff steer @Plaaayer Any fancies for the National?
After my performance at Doncaster Saturday I think I’m the wrong person to ask! I will be having a few quid e/w on Meetingofthewaters. Hasn’t been great this year but I still fancy a decent showing.
Though a year younger and with 3 fewer chases to his name, Iroko's racing CV now looks somewhat similar to that of Minella Times prior to his 2021 GN victory - both unexposed beyond 24~25f but having a 100% win/near-miss from 2 chases at 3m, staying on at the finish. Unlike MT, Iroko has not faced a large field over fences (an established stat negative, though he won vs 20 over hurdles at the Festival) but, on the flip side, has a near-miss in a 25f Grade 1 and has set his career-best RPR at 3m (5lbs above his GNOR which, if the weights don't rise, gives him an appealing 10-11 to carry). Of note is that Saturday's career-best was on GS and in a commensurate time, providing reassurance that he can be effective whatever the likely ground at Aintree. I'm not a fan of Cokoriko as a GN sire but that damside strength of Iroko is impressive. As strong a linebreeding to Wild Risk as you'll find, his damsire (Martaline, whom he shares with Intense Raffles) sired GN near-misser Vanillier, his rare 3rd damsire (Signani, a grandson of Wild Risk) he shares with Saint Are and his 4th damsire Verdi was 3rd damsire of dour stayer Raz De Maree. In short, there is every indication that he'll be at his best over at least 3.5 miles. That's backed up by his half-brother's (Jack Parrot's) recent near-miss ("keeping on") in the 30.5f Devon National in testing conditions. His overall GN stat-profile is just below the threshold by virtue of Cokoriko BUT the sire stat-test is my model's newest component and likely has a high margin of error at this point. He is short of winning calibre but, if I set Cokoriko aside, the model would rate him with the potential to finish 2nd~4th, 5~10L behind the "typical" winner. His pedigree (for GN purposes) is weaker than Kandoo Kid's but stronger than Intense Raffles' (according to my model) and, as it rates these as the only 2nd season chasers likely to have the required overall profile to make the frame (the 1st or 2nd season chaser stat is as close to a "golden" stat as there currently is), I'll be making IROKO the 4th member of my team, which is now:
Kandoo Kid Minella Cocooner Vanillier Iroko
Intense Raffles currently ranks 5th according to my model (with minor place potential, 10L+) but, for me, at his price he's not backable e/w or place only and it's still possible that Zanahiyr (another 2nd season chaser) could leap above him. He'd have to run in the Ultima and at least make the frame but I suspect his Festival (and possibly National) assignment lies elsewhere. Alternatively, depending on the likely ground on 5 April and how he runs in the XC (the drying forecast is certainly promising for him), Galvin could do so.
Finally, if it were to be Soft or worse ground once again at Aintree, Minella Indo comes into the equation as a place candidate if place odds appeal on the day. He goes perfectly well on decent ground but, as a 12yo, the GN stats demand slow ground.
Having backed Mr Incredible at long odds I'm intrigued by whether he will take up his entry in the GN. Apparently Sandy Thomson has a very good record of turning round temperamental horses by switching their routines. He takes them hunting, gallops on a beach and swimming in the sea among other ideas. Is the man a genius or totally misguided? I think he will be doing well if he gets him to jump off.
Inothewayurthinkin has indeed been supplemented for Friday's Gold Cup. Still 7/1 for the GN but, unless he departs early, I can't see him lining up in this year's marathon - maybe the Bowl but they'll be in no hurry.
Having backed Mr Incredible at long oddsI'm intrigued by whether he will take up his entry in the GN. Apparently Sandy Thomson has a very good record of turning round temperamental horses by switching their routines. He takes them hunting, gallops on a beach and swimming in the sea among other ideas. Is the man a genius or totally misguided? I think he will be doing well if he gets him to jump off.
Where there is hope! Below are comments from someone who has been working with Mr Incredible in the last month
"Mr Incredible has benefited from a weekend spent working on his mindset to help improve his body and performance in the horse racing industry. The potential this horse has Thank you to @ryan_mania_ & Sandy Thomson for trusting my training. This is another example of applying horsemanship to a specific discipline. It doesn’t matter what the discipline it shows the same approach can be applied to them all, the only thing that changes is what the horse physically has to do."
"The well known racehorse mr incredible has come to mine for a short time to work through a well known issue this horse has of napping and not starting races. He’s super talented and such a lovely personality and is improving everyday. It’s a well rooted behaviour but he’s responding well to different techniques and is making progress on the path to being in a better place at the races again!"
Stumptown, Galvin (who'll appreciate the drying ground), Coko Beach, French Dynamite and Vanillier, among others, will run. Conflated was scratched.
From my point of view, I'm very pleased to see Vanillier retain blinkers, which galvanised him last time when donning them for the first occasion - matching his career-high RPR154, notched when close 2nd in the 2023 GN. He'll run off the same GNOR147 if he makes the cut. If they a positive effect on Wednesday, one assumes he'll keep them for Aintree.
If you recall, after winning the 2018 GN, Tiger Roll had blinkers back on (first time in 15 months) the following season, with which he went 111 - the 2nd of these being a thumping win in the XC (then a conditions race), increasing his career-high RPR to 171 (he notched 174 when winning the 2019 GN 24 days later - the same gap between XC and GN as this year. The fact the XC is now a handicap should obviously assist those down the weights.
I wonder how Zanahyir would do hadn't he fallen, he was mid-group somewhere at that point. But I'm chuffed because I had Golden Ace, but what a race that was!
I wonder how Zanahyir would do hadn't he fallen, he was mid-group somewhere at that point. But I'm chuffed because I had Golden Ace, but what a race that was!
Yeap. It would have been nice to either confirm potential over at least 3 miles or put a line through him. Unsurprisingly, his race record comes up short from the model's perspective and he's now available at 100s (200 on Betfair), no doubt reflecting the fall and his record of less than fluent jumping. Obviously that's a risk but it was only his 2nd F or UR (3rd incomplete) in 29 races over obstacles and, since the GN fence changes, hurdling ratings have been a more reliable stat than F/URs (his hurdling RPR is 161). He won't make my model's top 5 but his pedigree is unusual (including a maternal uncle that x4 placed in the 34f Pardubice) and ticks some interesting GN boxes. There's potentially more stamina there than his very limited exposure at 3 miles might suggest but a decent surface would certainly help. If he heads to Aintree, I'll probably have a fun dabble but there's no hurry. He's surely only going to drift and the next forfeit stage is Tuesday - we still await NRNB quotes.
Comments
Combined with the reduced field size, it's a real pisser that it seems to be happening later and later.
What's more, for the first time, Bet365 have selectively disapplied Cash Out on antepost bets on the GN.
I don't mind a bid-offer spread and a widening one if the odds drift - that's understandable - but I'm stuck with a totally worthless e/w on Stuzzikini (who simply drifted from 80 to 100/1) with no cash out offered at all, but I can cash out KK and Minella Cocooner.
Greedy fuckers.
I'm stuck with Bet365 because I can't any meaningful size on elsewhere and, to be fair, cash out isn't universally available.
I've only put down part of my intended interest in Vanillier because of the uncertainty whether he'll make the cut.
But if he goes well in the XC, 33/1 will disappear for sure.
So they'd better go NRNB before the Festival or my GN enterprise becomes increasingly unviable.
To be brutally frank, if Vanillier doesn't make the cut this year, it will probably be the last roll out of my model.
If I can't take early prices on entries 45~51 without meaningful risk of total loss when the weights are framed, it's too skewed against, economically.
The bookies should have adjusted for the reduced field size by offering NRNB earlier, not later. IMHO, they should do so immediately after the weights.
If one of them did so, they'd steal a competitive march because punters will (within reason) pay to have NRNB protection.
The handicapper had the discretion to do what they did with Amberleigh House many years ago and bump his OR enough to ensure a run.
But they no longer think of that issue.
They're all too obsessed with "the quality" of the field, pleasing the big yards and placating critics of the race that will never be placated.
Vanillier is with a biggish yard but he symbolises the true staying handicapper that small yards can still legitimately dream of having but is never likely to have a mark to make them eligible if the field is dominated by Grade 1 runners and their likes.
He did reportedly pick Iroko as his GN horse when he finished close behind Inothewayurthinkin - FWIW Iroko's pedigree ticks more of my GN boxes.
In fact, my model has picked out all 3 of his GN winners (Don't Push It, Minella Times & Max) and his GN runners-up (Sunnyhillboy and Cause Of Causes, though not Any Second Now).
.... expecting JP's call over the weekend to seek my advice
Have fun @Plaaayer
Cheers
Good prep.
Any fancies for the National?
He seemed to me to balloon some of the fences - whether he was feeling something or being carefully ridden who knows?
It's obviously very reassuring when your fancies win or go close in their preps but the fact is: 4 of the last 11 GN winners were beaten in their final preps by bigger margins than KK was today, as was Pleasant Company, runner-up by just a Head in 2018.
I'll stick with my model, which makes him currently my #1 selection.
Did seem to take some of the fences very cautiously and it would make sense, as Nicholls very much wants to keep him fresh.
Borderline strong place potential.
Of note is that Saturday's career-best was on GS and in a commensurate time, providing reassurance that he can be effective whatever the likely ground at Aintree.
I'm not a fan of Cokoriko as a GN sire but that damside strength of Iroko is impressive.
As strong a linebreeding to Wild Risk as you'll find, his damsire (Martaline, whom he shares with Intense Raffles) sired GN near-misser Vanillier, his rare 3rd damsire (Signani, a grandson of Wild Risk) he shares with Saint Are and his 4th damsire Verdi was 3rd damsire of dour stayer Raz De Maree. In short, there is every indication that he'll be at his best over at least 3.5 miles.
That's backed up by his half-brother's (Jack Parrot's) recent near-miss ("keeping on") in the 30.5f Devon National in testing conditions.
His overall GN stat-profile is just below the threshold by virtue of Cokoriko BUT the sire stat-test is my model's newest component and likely has a high margin of error at this point.
He is short of winning calibre but, if I set Cokoriko aside, the model would rate him with the potential to finish 2nd~4th, 5~10L behind the "typical" winner.
His pedigree (for GN purposes) is weaker than Kandoo Kid's but stronger than Intense Raffles' (according to my model) and, as it rates these as the only 2nd season chasers likely to have the required overall profile to make the frame (the 1st or 2nd season chaser stat is as close to a "golden" stat as there currently is), I'll be making IROKO the 4th member of my team, which is now:
Kandoo Kid
Minella Cocooner
Vanillier
Iroko
Intense Raffles currently ranks 5th according to my model (with minor place potential, 10L+) but, for me, at his price he's not backable e/w or place only and it's still possible that Zanahiyr (another 2nd season chaser) could leap above him. He'd have to run in the Ultima and at least make the frame but I suspect his Festival (and possibly National) assignment lies elsewhere.
Alternatively, depending on the likely ground on 5 April and how he runs in the XC (the drying forecast is certainly promising for him), Galvin could do so.
Finally, if it were to be Soft or worse ground once again at Aintree, Minella Indo comes into the equation as a place candidate if place odds appeal on the day. He goes perfectly well on decent ground but, as a 12yo, the GN stats demand slow ground.
Zanahiyr's Festival target is indeed the Ultima, for which he's 50/1.
Pedigrees guarantee nothing but he's from the family of Commanche Court and has an impressive damside and could spring a surprise.
He'll carry a shilling of mine e/w next Tuesday and, if going close, ditto for the big one.
Apparently Sandy Thomson has a very good record of turning round temperamental horses by switching their routines. He takes them hunting, gallops on a beach and swimming in the sea among other ideas. Is the man a genius or totally misguided?
I think he will be doing well if he gets him to jump off.
Still 7/1 for the GN but, unless he departs early, I can't see him lining up in this year's marathon - maybe the Bowl but they'll be in no hurry.
"Mr Incredible has benefited from a weekend spent working on his mindset to help improve his body and performance in the horse racing industry. The potential this horse has
"The well known racehorse mr incredible has come to mine for a short time to work through a well known issue this horse has of napping and not starting races. He’s super talented and such a lovely personality and is improving everyday. It’s a well rooted behaviour but he’s responding well to different techniques and is making progress on the path to being in a better place at the races again!"
Stumptown, Galvin (who'll appreciate the drying ground), Coko Beach, French Dynamite and Vanillier, among others, will run. Conflated was scratched.
From my point of view, I'm very pleased to see Vanillier retain blinkers, which galvanised him last time when donning them for the first occasion - matching his career-high RPR154, notched when close 2nd in the 2023 GN. He'll run off the same GNOR147 if he makes the cut.
If they a positive effect on Wednesday, one assumes he'll keep them for Aintree.
If you recall, after winning the 2018 GN, Tiger Roll had blinkers back on (first time in 15 months) the following season, with which he went 111 - the 2nd of these being a thumping win in the XC (then a conditions race), increasing his career-high RPR to 171 (he notched 174 when winning the 2019 GN 24 days later - the same gap between XC and GN as this year.
The fact the XC is now a handicap should obviously assist those down the weights.
My XC bets:
Galvin 9/2
Vanillier 8/1
But I'm chuffed because I had Golden Ace, but what a race that was!
Unsurprisingly, his race record comes up short from the model's perspective and he's now available at 100s (200 on Betfair), no doubt reflecting the fall and his record of less than fluent jumping.
Obviously that's a risk but it was only his 2nd F or UR (3rd incomplete) in 29 races over obstacles and, since the GN fence changes, hurdling ratings have been a more reliable stat than F/URs (his hurdling RPR is 161).
He won't make my model's top 5 but his pedigree is unusual (including a maternal uncle that x4 placed in the 34f Pardubice) and ticks some interesting GN boxes. There's potentially more stamina there than his very limited exposure at 3 miles might suggest but a decent surface would certainly help.
If he heads to Aintree, I'll probably have a fun dabble but there's no hurry. He's surely only going to drift and the next forfeit stage is Tuesday - we still await NRNB quotes.