Vanillier impressively put an end to his 17 race, 3 years+ winless streak over the Banks on heavy ground at Punchestown today, leading from flag to finish and stretching out on the bridle to an 18L margin over Coko Beach - surely giving his Irish OR144 mark a bump to secure a start on 5 April. Coko Beach came home 2nd with stablemate Chemical Energy, who would have hated the ground, a further 12L back in 4th. Vanillier was disappointing last April but, though he floated across the ground today, his best RPRs have come on better ground, including his strong-finishing 2nd to Corach Rambler in the 2023 GN. Still only 10 with relatively little mileage on the clock, he's every chance of making the frame again at Aintree, though a winning one probably depends upon a fair measure of fortune. Cut to 33s.
Later, Galvin got his racecourse gallop, dressed up as a 2m flat race for stud and stable staff jockies. A pretty bizarre affair it was too, with them stretched out more than a furlong ...... AT THE START He had a decent blow on the heavy ground, "racing" handy but was a bit slow to get going down the home straight, sneaking 4th at the line. He's clearly had a nice break since his travels Stateside and this is the start of winding him up for the big one. Surely be a genuine prep of some sort to come but I'd be gobsmacked if it's at the Festival. Still 33~40/1.
Probably won't make a jot of difference to his GNOR but I Am Maximus dropped 2lbs to OR167 by the Irish handicapper after his 17L defeat (8th of 10) in Saturday's Leopardstown Gold Cup. Perhaps more significantly Minella Cocooner also dropped 2lbs to Irish OR154 .... nice one Willie
Others: Conflated -4 to 154 Hewick -2 to 161 Montys Star +6 to 159 Grangeclare West +4 to 162 Inothewayurthinkin +1 to 160
I have a cunning plan. Back Minella Indo now and cash out before the race. Reasoning - This is the only Henry de Bromhead entry and should therefore be ridden by Rachael Blackmore. This should ensure that the price will drop as the once a year mob get stuck in.
Nice one @RobinKeepsBobbin but he’s actually got 3 more entered Montys Star Envoi Allen Senior Chief - taking a liking to this fella at 66s
Looks like i missed that. But i think Rachael will ride Minella Indo
Think you might want to take a look at Senior Chief. Closely related to 16~26f chase winner Bob Bob Bobbin
So in Peanut's speak we should put a little e/w on Senior Chief? That is how i read it anyway?
I have a cunning plan. Back Minella Indo now and cash out before the race. Reasoning - This is the only Henry de Bromhead entry and should therefore be ridden by Rachael Blackmore. This should ensure that the price will drop as the once a year mob get stuck in.
Nice one @RobinKeepsBobbin but he’s actually got 3 more entered Montys Star Envoi Allen Senior Chief - taking a liking to this fella at 66s
Looks like i missed that. But i think Rachael will ride Minella Indo
Think you might want to take a look at Senior Chief. Closely related to 16~26f chase winner Bob Bob Bobbin
So in Peanut's speak we should put a little e/w on Senior Chief? That is how i read it anyway?
Wait for it. He's one of quite a few flashing away on the radar screen but at best is place material rather than winning calibre. I probably will have a nibble if he's still 66s when they go 5 places but I haven't backed him yet as it just depends on how others shape up down the stretch. There's another 66/1 funky second season chaser that might rate higher.
22 Feb is shaping up to be a big day for
key preps. Not only is it Bobbyjo Chase day (expecting I Am Maximus and Minella Cocooner [both will definitely be on my team-sheet if winning/going close] among others to run in their GN prep) but my possible GN nap, Kandoo Kid (credentials set out previously), has been entered for the big 3m chase at Kempton that day. Once
known as the Racing Post Chase, it was won by Rough Quest before his GN
victory in 1996, a mere 16 days after near-missing in the Gold Cup. Seems
like yesterday! Other GN possibles with entries in the race are Hyland, Iroko, Stay Away Fay and Threeunderthrufive.
42 days prior - in the sweetest of spots for a modern GN prep. A safe spin will do for KK. A win or near-miss for Max is vital for his GN stat-profile while a respectable challenge by Minella Cocooner will suffice if he's not allotted more than GNOR156 next Tuesday.
I may live to regret going early with just 4 places but my shillings are now down on Kandoo Kid for the GN, each way at 25/1 (1/4 odds). First name on the team-sheet.
Weights unveiled tomorrow, I've decided to add to my antepost e/w on KANDOO KIDat 25s with:
MINELLA COCOONERat 20s and I AM MAXIMUSat 12s (generally 10s), again both e/w (4 places 1/4 odds).
By my reckoning, they are the strongest 3 GN-related pedigrees in the top 60 by current mark (summaries posted on p.2 and for Max on last year's thread p.2) and I think they're all likely (with varying degrees of confidence) to tick the requisite campaign stat-boxes to confirm Winning-Calibre profiles. In fact, having run the slide rule over the top 60 by current mark, they may well be the only 3 to do so.
I AM MAXIMUS - bidding to do a Tiger but with topweight (I'm assuming GNOR168) he MUST win or go close in his prep. If it'sthe Bobbyjo on 22 Feb as last year, he'll be at his beloved Fairyhouse (3 wins 1 near-miss from 4) and the weights will favour him. Should he fail to do so, my model would say forget him altogether. His run in the PP Gold Cup was a country mile better than in the Savills Chase and I see no reason why he won't deliver at Fairyhouse. If he wins as well as he did a year ago, he'll be single figures for sure. At the risk of a loss on cashing out if he doesn't, I can't not take the current price.
KANDOO KID - aside from Max, the strongest GN pedigree in the field; this season's Coral Gold Cup winner also ticks the weighty 2nd season chaser box and has (like Max) the outperforming mtDNA in his genes. At the expected GNOR152, he'll likely have a very winnable-with 10-10 or thereabouts on his back. With a 75% win or near-miss rate over obstacles when running after a 50+ day break, he doesn't strictly need to have a run to have a GN-winning stat-profile but he's entered for Kempton's 3m chase on 22 Feb (he may wait for the Newbury meeting a week later) and it would be more consistent with the sweet spot for a GN winner to have an outing 42 or 35 days prior. A safe spin will suffice.
MINELLA COCOONER - clear 3rd best GN pedigree this year, he's strictly-speaking in his 3rd season chasing but had a 397-day break after his chasing bow, so mileage is still modest. 2 from 2 wins/near-misses at c 3.5 miles, if he's allotted GNOR156 (Irish OR + 2lbs), he'd have around 11-00 to carry on 5 April. Very doable. However, the handicapper is facing a conundrum that could lead him to ignore MC's 4lb drop in Irish mark ensuing from an exclusively Grade 1 campaign this season because, at current Irish marks, he'd be receiving 7lbs from Nick Rockett, to whom he gave 4lbs and a 2.5L beating in the Bet365 last April. A 9lb rise for the latter's Thyestes win may have been over-done (given the proximity of Velvet Elvis) but it's unlikely he'll give NR less than his current Irish OR161. So it wouldn't totally surprise if MC's GNOR has a slightly higher Irish premium than others to narrow the gap. Every lb above GNOR156 would diminish his winning chance, according to my model, so perhaps I'll be cashing out with him too. But I can't read the handicapper's mind and, with prices so tight already, I don't want to be caught short. Regardless of my model’s sensitivites re his GN mark, he’s going to have a decent pull vs 16/1 Nick Rockett that at some point will likely prompt a tailwind. For his GN prep, he'll possibly face I Am Maximus and others in the Bobbyjo, in which a competitive run (not a win, with weights likely against) is required to rubber stamp his GN winning stat-profile, though a win or near-miss would compensate for a disappointment on GNOR.
I'm going to keep the rest of my powder dry for the time-being - still lots of moving parts.
First thought is bloody hell. Nick Rockett's got 163 (Irish + 2lbs). 11-08 to shoulder. Ouch. Minella Cocooner not brilliant on 157 (11-02) but, depending on his prep run, not a killer.
From not running to "plans still open for" Inothewayurthinkin, according to Gavin Cromwell. Given it's a best priced 10/1 and favourite in most books, that 33/1 of yours is looking quite big now. Just has to get to run!
I'll be putting the model's full slide rule over the top 60 in the weights (down to GNOR144) but for those
interested in a quick and (fairly) ruthless stat-filter to find this year's
winner, you might care to apply something like these 4 tests
They're from among the 15
applied as a negative screen by my model, including 3 that are among the strongest
outperformance factors for GN winners since 2013.
Although this method comes to a similar
conclusion to my model's initial reckoning in terms of the best "fit" with
modern Winners, a number of GN near-missers (by as little as a Head in
Pleasant Company's case) since 2013 would not have passed this crude 4-step
filter (especially test 1).
As it takes only a moment of misfortune to
account for 5L or more in a GN, my full model is based not only on
Winner's stats but those of all frame-makers, particularly those <10L, and
not just their CVs but, crucially, their pedigrees.
The model also doesn't
apply any test as a "blackball", as this quick filter does but, rather, allows up to 2 fails (thus requiring >85% compliance). That's the reason when the dust settles after preps (if not before) I'll be backing for e/w or place
only some of those eliminated below, as well as the 3 I've already backed e/w.
However, if you want a quick way of using trends
to find the Winner, I hope this helps:
1. With the exception of last year's winner, must be a 1st or 2nd season
chaser (10/11 winners since 2013; 10/10 since 2014):
Eliminate:
Envoi Allen
Royale Pagaille
L'Homme Presse
Hewick
Bravemansgame
The Real Whacker
Delta Work
Minella Indo
Beauport
Hitman
Galvin
Appreciate It
Capodanno
Chantry House
Conflated
Threeunderthrufive
Idas Boy
Limerick Lace
Fil Dor
Minella Drama
Mr Incredible
Farouk d'Alene
Coko Beach
Quick Wave
Vanillier
Stumptown
Meetingofthewaters
French Dynamite
Fakir d'Oudairies
Celebre d'Allen
Fontaine Collonges
Shakem Up'arry
Minella Crooner
Twig
Velvet Elvis
Roi Mage
Fantastic Lady
Monbeg Genius
Cut some slack (1 run prior to May 2023):
Gentlemansgame
Minella Cocooner
2. If GNOR 148+, must have won or near-missed (<5L) in a Class 1 chase at
26f+ (6/6 winners allotted GNOR 148+ since 2013)
Eliminate (for the moment):
Grangeclare West
Gentlemansgame
Montys Star
Perceval Legallois
Iroko
Trelawne
Stay Away Fay
Zanahiyr
Pinkerton
Senior Chief
Cut some slack (won highly competitive Class 2 at 26f):
Inothewayurthinkin
3. Must have won or near-missed in a chase with 18+ runners (10/11 since
2013)
Eliminate (for the moment):
Broadway Boy
Hyland
Three Card Brag
Favori de Champdou
Cut some slack (near-missed in field of 17): Horantzau d'Airy
4. Must have notched a 24f+ chase RPR = GNOR + at least 2lbs (11/11 winners & 10/11 runners-up since 2013)
Eliminate (for the moment):
Nick Rockett (-5)
Duffle Coat (-5)
Horantzau d'Airy (0)
I've explained why my model rates the CVs and pedigrees of Kandoo Kid and Minella Cocooner as having a strong "fit" with the key features of those of modern GN winners. And Max speaks for himself. What about the other two?
INTENSE
RAFFLES (16/1) Aside from his impressive Irish GN win (under
11-04 on Heavy), the form of which is decent (3 of the 6 behind him winning subsequently off the same or up to 6lbs higher marks) he's unbeaten over fences since arriving from
France. That said, all 3 runs were at
Fairyhouse and on Soft or Hvy. He's almost certain to return there for the Bobbyjo in a couple of weeks. His career stats and GNOR are certainly consistent with a strong show at Aintree but the
limiting factor for me is pedigree.
On the plus side, he's closely related to a 4m
Hunter Chase winner, Coup De Pinceau (also 8th in the 2021 Scottish GN [outpaced])
and he's from the wider family of the half-brothers Silviniaco Conti, Class
Conti and Ucello Conti (also Munir owned), all 3 ran of which ran in GNs;
Ucello performing best (6th and a UR 4 out when going well in the soft-ground
GNs of 2016 and 2018, and another UR).
He's also nicely linebred to Mill Reef (as was One
For Arthur and Balko Des Flos). But he benefits from none other of the range of
key pedigree ingredients of which all 35 GN winners and <10L finishers have
had an appreciably stronger blend.
Even with a decent CV, barring mayhem or a
bog, my model rates him at best a 4~6th place finisher (at least 10L adrift).
INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN (8/1)
Leniently treated to be given his Irish OR 160 (11-05) and the market appears to agree, making him the new fav. Despite the trainer's cagey-ness, I would imagine he'll line up. Where he runs for his prep, who knows but it could be an absolute stellar Bobbyjo if that's Gavin Cromwell's choice. A Novice Grade 1 and Kim Muir winner, his last outing was a fine 7L behind the x2 GC winner and this fella's CV unsurprisingly has all the right stats for a strong run at Aintree. Notably he's 2 wins from 2 chases in the Spring and is at home on any ground. As with Intense Raffles, from my model's perspective, it comes down to Pedigree: On the plus side, he's by a force of a sire, Walk In The Park. Damsire Califet sired GN rival Beauport (won Midlands Nat) and the ill-fated Eclair Surf (close 2nd in an Eider), while 2nd Damsire Video Rock was Damsire of GN stalwarts Saint Are and Delta Work. That's all good but, again, it's a weaker fit overall with modern GN winners than the pedigrees of Max, Kandoo Kid and Minella Cocooner. It's reminiscent of an old-style GN winner's pedigree. For example there's no Group 1 winner among his first 3 damsires and none have produced G1 winners. Of the 11 GN winners since 2013 and the 8 that finished <5L of them, that's true of only Pineau De Re (arguably fortunate that Balthazar King encountered hazards while taking the scenic route in 2014) and Rathvinden, who ran out of gas (according to Ruby on board) in 3rd in 2019. It's very consistent with those placing 5~10L in a modern GN. So, while I'm expecting him to be there or thereabouts at The Elbow, his GN-profile suggests "close, but no cigar". ....... famous last words !
Having plugged in the GNORs, a run of the slide rule over the top 3 Winning Calibre pedigrees confirms my model's assessment:
I Am Maximus - must Win or near-miss in his prep (almost certainly the Bobbyjo in 9 days time) to confirm Winning Potential
Kandoo Kid - already has a Winning profile - a safe spin in his prep (likely at Kempton in 9 days time) would enhance
Minella Cocooner - GNOR157 is at full
stretch for his CV but, so long as he runs creditably if he partakes in a
hot-looking Bobbyjo, he'll have the profile to win or near-miss on 5 April
Not absolutely certain but these are likely to be the only Winning Candidates identified by my model this year and which, subject to confirming preps in Max's and MC's cases, I'll be retaining my e/w interests.
There are 2 other GN debutants with a pedigree correlated with GN winners and near-missers:
- Conflated100/1 looks a spent force - at least a year, more like 2, too late to have a tilt - ZANAHIYR 66/1 - is intriguing. Bred by the Aga Khan, like Cause Of Causes he initially raced on the flat (remember also, Red Rum's first race was a 5f selling plate) and he has an extraordinary pedigree for a GN runner that correlates with many modern GN winners, now encompassing top Classic winners in their breeding:
By Nanthaniel (sire of Kittys Light)
Remarkably, Nathaniel and every single one of Zanahiyr's damsires within 9 Generations were G1 winners at 8f+ AND produced G1 winners at 12f+ (6 of them producing Derby, Arc or St Leger winners)
His own 5th Dam Petite Etoile was a multiple G1 winner at 8~12f.
He's linebred (has a son and daughter split across sire and damside and >4% AGR [Additive Genetic Relationship]) to the great post-War miler Tudor Minstrel (Timeform 144) - a stat which, albeit with a small sample, has a very interesting correlation with GN success:
8 horses, running 11 times in GNs since 2013, have a comparable form of linebreeding and % AGR to Tudor Minstrel: 3 of them have won or near-missed (Auroras Encore, Pineau De Re and Magic Of Light). The others include Long Run (Fell with Leaders 2014), The Romford Pele (UR with Leaders 2016) and Lifetime Ambition (badly hampered & UR 2023).
2 other horses, running 4 times, have a 4%+ AGR to TM via 2 of his daughters on their damside, 1 of which potentially passes TM's X-chromosome to the runner. They were Maggio and Noble Yeats. All told - 15 runners producing 4 of the 11 winners and 8 near-missers - ostensibly a x6 outperformance.
To make the analysis from a much bigger sample: 47 runners since 2013 (11% of fields) have been similarly linebred [4%+ AGR] to a Timeform 138+ rated stallion (eg TM, Mill Reef, Abernant, Alycidon, Ribot, Sea Bird): they've produced 4 winners (add One For Arthur) and 2 runners up (add Pleasant Company) - 37.5% of winners and those beaten <3L: x3.4 outperformance
Finally, he's very distantly from the family of Commanche Court (winner of the 2000 Irish GN, who also started his career on the flat) but more closely related to 6 times runner (x4 placed, as close as 6L) in the 34f Pardubice, Zarif (half brother of Z's dam, also bred by the Aga Khan and starting on the flat).
A 2nd season chaser (kaching!) he's a x4 runner-up in 2m Grade 1s over hurdles, 3rd (1L) in last July's Galway Plate; just 1 run at 3 miles (5th in a slightly farcical Kerry National won from the front by Flooring Porter), he must make the frame in a Class 1 24f or Class 1/2 26f+ chase to confirm GN winning calibre profile. It will be interesting to see where Elliott sends him next time. It may or may not be, but will strongly pique my interest if it's the Festival XC. Keeping a very close eye on the handicap entries for Cheltenham.
Peanuts: is Zanahiyr guaranteed to get a run please? 66-1 is too good a price to miss if he's likely to run given what you've said above.
Very probable. He’s 1 of 8 on GNOR150 that are joint 34th in the weights. HOWEVER, if you’re following my model (for which I much appreciate the confidence) please note that a GN-correlated pedigree is a necessary but not sufficient feature. For the model to rate him winning calibre he’s got to tick the CV boxes. I’m going to wait to see where he’s entered because it’s highly unlikely his odds will shorten in the meantime. Also will be a good indication of whether Elliott thinks he may have what it takes. This is an “out there” pick. There are others with Strong Place potential that will need backing, when the Place only market starts, so I’m going to be choosy.
So with Max, Minella Cocooner and especially Zanahiyr still with work to do to join Kandoo Kid with Winning Profiles, which entries are flashing away brightest on the model’s radar screen as the Next Best alternatives, should they fail to do so, or as final additions to the team sheet?
Let's consider 3 groups:
1. Returning horses:
(a) previously placed
We know
that some horses come alive over the GN fences, even at an advanced age and defying poor form. Oscar Time hadn't made the frame since his close
2nd to Ballabriggs in 2011, when he rolled back the years as a 12 yo with an exuberant 4th in the 2013 GN.
The fact is, the stats are good for returning placers repeating the feat.
Since 2013, horses that have placed (2~5) have a x2.7
outperformance factor in doing so again (Cappa Bleu, Oscar
Time, Alvarado, Saint Are, Anibale Fly, Any Second Now and Delta Work all obliging) - that's 18.% of places 2~5 from 6.8% of fields.
But sadly the stats are not good for them lifting the prize.
It’s a sobering fact that it’s 21
years since a former GN placer last won a GN - Amberleigh House, and that was
a case of misfortune striking debutant Clan Royal, whose jockey lost his whip a
long way from home and was unable to stop his horse wandering after The Elbow,
conceding a commanding lead agonisingly on the line. He's the only horse to have done so since Hallo Dandy, 41 years ago.
We have 4 returning GN placers this April and, on their preferred ground, my model rates all of them as potential repeat frame-makers, and even potential winners if misfortune were to strike key others.
In order of potential interest:
VANILLIER 33/1 - handles any ground and should make the cut (needs up to 17 to defect above him). He'd been in
moderate form since his fine strongly-finishing 2nd to Corach Rambler in 2023,
including a disappointing 14th last April. First-time
blinkers galvanised him over the Punchestown Banks course 9 days ago when
romping home by 18L. He may not have beaten many horses in form that day but he
had plenty left in the tank and it's perhaps surprising that, having matched his
career-best RPR154, notched in that fine GN near-miss (prior to which his best RPR had been just 148), he was put up only 3lbs
and will line up with the same GNOR147 (4lbs lower than last year). FYI - Tiger
Roll was similarly galvanised by blinkers in 2019, winning both starts prior to his historic 2nd GN.
GALVIN 33/1
- his 8L 4th last April, on unfavourable ground, was arguably as
impressive a run as the winner's. It's more than 2 years since he last won
but he was beaten by a Neck in the US "Grand National" in October over an inadequate 21f and, if he gets Good to Soft this time, now 9lb better off with I Am Maximus, he could well be in the "miximus" at the
business end.
DELTA WORK 40/1 - came alive over the fences on his preferred Soft ground last April,
after a very modest campaign, and was a staying on 2nd despite injury. Similarly ordinary runs this term but, if he gets
Soft or Heavy ground again, he could be the first since State Of Play to score
a hat trick of GN places; and who knows with those slings and arrows of outrageous fortune?
Minella
Indo 66/1 - a 12yo but still with an appetite for the game, judging from his
close 2nd in a competitive chase to open his campaign this season. He led at the Elbow last year but didn't quite get home. Maybe decent ground, which he likes, would help him get the trip but, at his age, despite modest mileage and being such a genuine type, the stats are against him on GS.
(b) previously unplaced
Those
returning runners that failed to make the frame on their first run, while they
can do so at the 2nd time of asking, tend to underperform (by a factor of
x0.86).
The most likely to go better are EITHER those that had nice debuts as 7 yos, were given
patient rides and manifestly saw out the trip (Saint Are and Cause Of Causes) OR were the victim of misfortune or had been unwisely ridden (Rare Bob BD; Balthazar King suicidal pace; Monbeg Dude jumping blunders; Gas Line Boy F1st; Pleasant Company stumbled badly when with leaders; Galvin UR1st).
Meetingofthewaters (7th as 7yo) didn't appear to get the trip and, in any event, his season's
campaign leaves his CV sub-par
Limerick Lace (10th) had traffic problems but plugged on admirably. Difficult to say whether she got the trip but, again, her season's campaign has not been encouraging
Coko Beach - 4th attempt, he just doesn't get the trip
Minella Crooner (PU) - no excuses last time and poor form
Only 1 (on paper) might fit the criteria for potentially faring better:
Mr Incredible - x2 UR - please no! Though his season's form reading a solitary R really would make him the outlier of all outliers.
By the way, it's 16 years since a returning unplaced horse won a GN (Mon Mome - YAY!!) and arguably he was the beneficiary of a major drop in pace when misfortune struck Black Apalachi at 2nd Bechers.
Other than Tiger, a GN debutant has won every GN since and, as we know, since 2013 the stats materially favour 2nd season chasers.
2. GN
debutants with pedigrees correlated with Strong Place Potential (5~10L):
Royale
Pagaille (running in today's GN Trial at his beloved Haydock), Nick
Rockett, Gentlemansgame and The Real
Whacker all have pedigrees consistent with those placing 5~10L in modern GNs. BUT, at their GNORs, it's improbable if not impossible for them to tick the career stats to figure on 5 April.
Those that could, if ticking the boxes in their preps:
IROKO 14/1
- 7yo 2nd season chaser, shares his 3rd damsire (Signani) with Saint
Are and is linebred to Wild Risk (like Tiger Roll, I Am Maximus, Vics Canvas GN3rd, Walk In The Mill 4th and The Big Dog 5th) and to Mill Reef (like One For Arthur and Baldo Des Flos). He needs a new career best chase RPR157+ (he's 4/1 for the big
Kempton chase on 22 Feb) to confirm that Strong Place Potential off OR152 (10-11). To date, his best form over hurdles and fences has come on Soft and so it will be interesting to see whether Kempton's likely better ground suits. At Aintree, he'll be 8lbs better off with Inothewayurthinkin for his 4L defeat in the 25f Mildmay a year ago (his only run at 3m+). Interestingly and ironically, on the same day, his half brother (Jacks Parrot, from the same yard) and Inothewayurthinkin's half brother (Ilikedwayurthinkin) attempt the 33.5f Eider Chase at Newcastle, providing potentially significant stamina clues.
SENIOR CHIEF 66/1 - 8yo 2nd season chaser (THE sweet spot), his sire (Gentlewave) and Damsire (Saddlers Hall, also Damsire of GN5th The
Big Dog) were both G1 winners at 12f. His Grand-Dam, (Absaloms Lady) was a top class
and Grade 1-winning hurdler and he's from the family of 1988 GN3rd Monanore. Guaranteed a run with GNOR151 (10-10), he stayed on strongly up the
Cheltenham hill to win a competitive 25f Class 2 in October (in first-time cheek pieces) and, with OR+9lbs,
ran much better than his 11L 6th reads in the Coral Gold Cup, noticeably
staying on. The blot on his CV is his PU when 10/1 for April's Irish GN (every
chance 5 out), mystifying De Bromhead who said he's always regarded him an Aintree GN
horse. Possibly an explanation - although he's won on Heavy, by far his best 2 chase RPRs have come on a sound surface. His is lightly raced and that was his 3rd in 71 days, all on testing ground; perhaps he just doesn't take too much racing. Stats-wise he needs a safe spin but it's now 77 days since his last outing so should still be fresh enough for Aintree. Not entirely impossible they try him in blinkers next time.
TWIG 66/1 -
a 10yo that was a x5 PtP scorer, with limited mileage Under Rules over fences, he's had a hurdling campaign this
season, leaving his GNOR at 146 (needing 18~21 above to defect). If he lines up, he'll be only the
2nd son of Sulamani to run in a GN (the other being 2016 winner Rule The World) and only the 2nd rep of Poliglote as Damsire (the other being I Am Maximus!); both being G1 winners at 10f+ and producers of G1 winners at 12f. Winner over the furthest trip he's attempted (26f) on Good, his best RPR was
set when 4.5L 2nd to Chianti Classico in last season's Ultima. On paper he's badly off with
Meetingofthewaters based on that run but it was Heavy ground that day and Twig much prefers a sound surface. That highly unusual combination of sire and damsire, and a
71% win or near-miss rate from 7 chases at 24~26f makes him a very interesting Place Candidate on GS. A win or near miss in a chase prep would
confirm that Potential but needs some luck with defections.
So, aside from potentially 4 Winning Candidates, these are
the entries flashing away as the strongest Place candidates on my model's radar
screen; possibly winners if misfortune strikes for my model's top picks (as it did in 2023):
Vanillier
Galvin (on GS)
Delta Work (Soft~Heavy)
Iroko
Senior Chief (GS)
Twig (GS)
Assuming there's still at least 3 Winning Candidates e/w on my betting slip, I'll be looking to add (probably) Place only interests on some of these when that market kicks off and depending on their preps and my guesstimate of ground conditions.
Plenty of water to flow under several bridges
yet but I hope this is helpful or, in any event, interesting.
Of the 32 runners, 28 have run subsequently in a total of 82 races. They've produced only 3 wins (by Vanillier, Roi Mage and Minella Crooner), of which 2 were over XC courses. That's a very poor 3.7% win rate.
Either last year's GN on Soft took a toll like old GNs used to or, perhaps, it wasn't such a strong a race?
Ordinarily, a horse that refuses to race might be one that you could back in running if it actually started. The trouble is Mr Incredible is such a monkey is that he's just as likely to pull himself up just as soon as you've pressed that "back" button. That said, Sandy Thompson says that the intention is still to run it in the GN but they are going a different route - they are sending him pointing. Old habits die hard so I've just stuck a fiver on the nag at 200 on Betfair. Losing that will hurt me far, far less than seeing it romp home unbacked especially at those odds!
Ordinarily, a horse that refuses to race might be one that you could back in running if it actually started. The trouble is Mr Incredible is such a monkey is that he's just as likely to pull himself up just as soon as you've pressed that "back" button. That said, Sandy Thompson says that the intention is still to run it in the GN but they are going a different route - they are sending him pointing. Old habits die hard so I've just stuck a fiver on the nag at 200 on Betfair. Losing that will hurt me far, far less than seeing it romp home unbacked especially at those odds!
Damn good idea. I see you've snaffled the last of the 200s - I shall bide my time and follow suit. Too painful to contemplate, as you say. Cheers.
A further franking of the form of Kandoo Kid's Coral GC win, with 3rd place Victtorino making it back to back wins, today off 3lbs higher. Nice run in 2nd from Threeunderthrufive who'll find himself well-in if he lines up at Aintree but his pedigree gives him at best minor place potential, by my model's reckoning.
If this were a pre-2013 GN, Midlands National winner Beauport (33/1) could well have been one on my shortlist but, among other things, he's a representative of the now-underperforming L2b1a haplotype, meaning that, in 2025, my model rates him at best a minor place candidate.
Any updates after the 2nd place today? I have a bet but I think to cash in. His pedigree stats are a bit low , not a winner, and I doubt he'll place within the first five (famous last words) but comparing against other possible horses.
If this were a pre-2013 GN, Midlands National winner Beauport (33/1) could well have been one on my shortlist but, among other things, he's a representative of the now-underperforming L2b1a haplotype, meaning that, in 2025, my model rates him at best a minor place candidate.
Any updates after the 2nd place today? I have a bet but I think to cash in. His pedigree stats are a bit low , not a winner, and I doubt he'll place within the first five (famous last words) but comparing against other possible horses.
Small field Rendlesham hurdle isn't going to tell us much. Ran nicely, staying on but staying is his game. His best 2 wins have been:
Midlands National over 34f in Mar 24 by 1.75~2.25L from Mr Incredible and My Silver Lining off OR140, for which he was put up 4lbs
Berkshire National over 29.5f at Ascot in Nov 24 by 31L off OR144, for which he was put up 12lbs to his current OR156
BUT consider what he beat in both races:
Runners in that Midlands National have run 35 times since, producing 1 win (his own at Ascot) Runners in the Berkshire Nat have run 18 times since, producing 1 win (a Class 4 hurdle)
He's a fine stayer but he's got a lot to do off GN156 (11-01). Maybe if it's testing ground, that will play to his strength, as he's got an old-fashioned National Hunt pedigree (and that now-underperforming mtDNA) but I suspect he'll find several too classy.
Yeah... doesn't look too good. One of those I regard with suspicion. Another would be Stumptown (possible Gold Cup entry), Percy L (just not convinced), and indeed Iroko (low DP, 7yo).
Yeah... doesn't look too good. One of those I regard with suspicion. Another would be Stumptown (possible Gold Cup entry), Percy L (just not convinced), and indeed Iroko (low DP, 7yo).
Is Dosage Profile what you’re referring to re Iroko?
I mean, he might place, but winning is another matter. Looking at winners since 2015, all were at least 20, with exception of Noble Yeats, but even he is 16, while Iroko is 8. There were some 8s placing 3rd (Gaillard Du Mesnil ) and 4th (Burrows Saint). The rest of them are at least 10, most are higher. Sure, things could happen, but when you consider the whole picture it just makes me suspicious a bit if he will make it. [I'm using stats Grittar prepared on Grand National Guide Bloggers]
I mean, he might place, but winning is another matter. Looking at winners since 2015, all were at least 20, with exception of Noble Yeats, but even he is 16, while Iroko is 8. There were some 8s placing 3rd (Gaillard Du Mesnil ) and 4th (Burrows Saint). The rest of them are at least 10, most are higher. Sure, things could happen, but when you consider the whole picture it just makes me suspicious a bit if he will make it. [I'm using stats Grittar prepared on Grand National Guide Bloggers]
Ah yes, Grittar’s Dosage and Conduit Mare Profiles (Speed and Stamina). To each their own and good luck to those who use those figures.
I don’t use Dosage because there are holes in the data, especially with French breds, that IMHO make comparisons flawed. For example, does a figure of 8 suggest a runner’s unlikely to win? Mon Mome’s DP was 4, Neptune Collonges’s was 2 and Pineau De Re’s was also 2. All 3 were French bred, but so too is Iroko.
That said, I come to the same view about him as you - he’s place rather than winning material, so 14/1 is way too skinny.
BTW I’m not a user of CMP Speed and Stamina figures either (which many on GN Bloggers cite religiously), having crunched the figures for all 427 runners since 2013, but it’s too late on a Saturday evening to bang on about that now.
Bottom line, we’ve all got our own ideas and methods and nobody’s system’s infallible. Least of all mine.
Comments
Coko Beach came home 2nd with stablemate Chemical Energy, who would have hated the ground, a further 12L back in 4th.
Vanillier was disappointing last April but, though he floated across the ground today, his best RPRs have come on better ground, including his strong-finishing 2nd to Corach Rambler in the 2023 GN.
Still only 10 with relatively little mileage on the clock, he's every chance of making the frame again at Aintree, though a winning one probably depends upon a fair measure of fortune. Cut to 33s.
Later, Galvin got his racecourse gallop, dressed up as a 2m flat race for stud and stable staff jockies.
A pretty bizarre affair it was too, with them stretched out more than a furlong ...... AT THE START
He had a decent blow on the heavy ground, "racing" handy but was a bit slow to get going down the home straight, sneaking 4th at the line.
He's clearly had a nice break since his travels Stateside and this is the start of winding him up for the big one.
Surely be a genuine prep of some sort to come but I'd be gobsmacked if it's at the Festival. Still 33~40/1.
Perhaps more significantly Minella Cocooner also dropped 2lbs to Irish OR154 .... nice one Willie
Others:
Conflated -4 to 154
Hewick -2 to 161
Montys Star +6 to 159
Grangeclare West +4 to 162
Inothewayurthinkin +1 to 160
He's one of quite a few flashing away on the radar screen but at best is place material rather than winning calibre.
I probably will have a nibble if he's still 66s when they go 5 places but I haven't backed him yet as it just depends on how others shape up down the stretch.
There's another 66/1 funky second season chaser that might rate higher.
Bookmarked!
Not only is it Bobbyjo Chase day (expecting I Am Maximus and Minella Cocooner [both will definitely be on my team-sheet if winning/going close] among others to run in their GN prep) but my possible GN nap, Kandoo Kid (credentials set out previously), has been entered for the big 3m chase at Kempton that day.
Once known as the Racing Post Chase, it was won by Rough Quest before his GN victory in 1996, a mere 16 days after near-missing in the Gold Cup. Seems like yesterday!
Other GN possibles with entries in the race are Hyland, Iroko, Stay Away Fay and Threeunderthrufive.
42 days prior - in the sweetest of spots for a modern GN prep.
A safe spin will do for KK. A win or near-miss for Max is vital for his GN stat-profile while a respectable challenge by Minella Cocooner will suffice if he's not allotted more than GNOR156 next Tuesday.
First name on the team-sheet.
Weights unveiled tomorrow, I've decided to add to my antepost e/w on KANDOO KID at 25s with:
MINELLA COCOONER at 20s and I AM MAXIMUS at 12s (generally 10s), again both e/w (4 places 1/4 odds).
By my reckoning, they are the strongest 3 GN-related pedigrees in the top 60 by current mark (summaries posted on p.2 and for Max on last year's thread p.2) and I think they're all likely (with varying degrees of confidence) to tick the requisite campaign stat-boxes to confirm Winning-Calibre profiles. In fact, having run the slide rule over the top 60 by current mark, they may well be the only 3 to do so.
I AM MAXIMUS - bidding to do a Tiger but with topweight (I'm assuming GNOR168) he MUST win or go close in his prep. If it's the Bobbyjo on 22 Feb as last year, he'll be at his beloved Fairyhouse (3 wins 1 near-miss from 4) and the weights will favour him. Should he fail to do so, my model would say forget him altogether.
His run in the PP Gold Cup was a country mile better than in the Savills Chase and I see no reason why he won't deliver at Fairyhouse. If he wins as well as he did a year ago, he'll be single figures for sure. At the risk of a loss on cashing out if he doesn't, I can't not take the current price.
KANDOO KID - aside from Max, the strongest GN pedigree in the field; this season's Coral Gold Cup winner also ticks the weighty 2nd season chaser box and has (like Max) the outperforming mtDNA in his genes. At the expected GNOR152, he'll likely have a very winnable-with 10-10 or thereabouts on his back.
With a 75% win or near-miss rate over obstacles when running after a 50+ day break, he doesn't strictly need to have a run to have a GN-winning stat-profile but he's entered for Kempton's 3m chase on 22 Feb (he may wait for the Newbury meeting a week later) and it would be more consistent with the sweet spot for a GN winner to have an outing 42 or 35 days prior. A safe spin will suffice.
MINELLA COCOONER - clear 3rd best GN pedigree this year, he's strictly-speaking in his 3rd season chasing but had a 397-day break after his chasing bow, so mileage is still modest. 2 from 2 wins/near-misses at c 3.5 miles, if he's allotted GNOR156 (Irish OR + 2lbs), he'd have around 11-00 to carry on 5 April. Very doable.
However, the handicapper is facing a conundrum that could lead him to ignore MC's 4lb drop in Irish mark ensuing from an exclusively Grade 1 campaign this season because, at current Irish marks, he'd be receiving 7lbs from Nick Rockett, to whom he gave 4lbs and a 2.5L beating in the Bet365 last April. A 9lb rise for the latter's Thyestes win may have been over-done (given the proximity of Velvet Elvis) but it's unlikely he'll give NR less than his current Irish OR161. So it wouldn't totally surprise if MC's GNOR has a slightly higher Irish premium than others to narrow the gap.
Every lb above GNOR156 would diminish his winning chance, according to my model, so perhaps I'll be cashing out with him too. But I can't read the handicapper's mind and, with prices so tight already, I don't want to be caught short. Regardless of my model’s sensitivites re his GN mark, he’s going to have a decent pull vs 16/1 Nick Rockett that at some point will likely prompt a tailwind.
For his GN prep, he'll possibly face I Am Maximus and others in the Bobbyjo, in which a competitive run (not a win, with weights likely against) is required to rubber stamp his GN winning stat-profile, though a win or near-miss would compensate for a disappointment on GNOR.
I'm going to keep the rest of my powder dry for the time-being - still lots of moving parts.
1 I Am Maximus (FR) 9 11 12 Mr John P. McManus W. P. Mullins 167
2 Royale Pagaille (FR) 11 11 9 Mrs S. Ricci Venetia Williams 164
3 Envoi Allen (FR) 11 11 8 Cheveley Park Stud Henry de Bromhead 163
4 Grangeclare West (IRE) 9 11 8 Cheveley Park Stud W. P. Mullins 163
5 L'homme Presse (FR) 10 11 8 Dfa Racing (Pink, Edwards & Sharman) Venetia Williams 163
6 Nick Rockett (IRE) 8 11 8 Stewart & Sadie Andrew W. P. Mullins 163
7 Hewick (IRE) 10 11 7 Mr T. J. McDonald Tara Lee Cogan 162
8 Gentlemansgame (GB) 9 11 5 Robcour M. F. Morris 160
9 Inothewayurthinkin (IRE) 7 11 5 Mr John P. McManus Gavin Cromwell 160
10 Monty's Star (IRE) 8 11 5 Mr Barry Maloney Henry de Bromhead 160
11 The Real Whacker (IRE) 9 11 4 Neville, Mann, Duffus, Dennis-Price Patrick Neville 159
12 Minella Indo (IRE) 12 11 3 Mr Barry Maloney Henry de Bromhead 158
13 Appreciate It (IRE) 11 11 2 Miss M. A. Masterson W. P. Mullins 157
14 Capodanno (FR) 9 11 2 Mr John P. McManus W. P. Mullins 157
15 Conflated (IRE) 11 11 2 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott 157
16 Delta Work (FR) 12 11 2 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott 157
17 Minella Cocooner (IRE) 9 11 2 Mr David Bobbett W. P. Mullins 157
18 Stumptown (IRE) 8 11 2 Furze Bush Syndicate Gavin Cromwell 157
19 Beauport (IRE) 9 11 1 Bryan & Philippa Burrough Nigel Twiston-Davies 156
20 Hitman (FR) 9 11 1 Mason, Hogarth, Ferguson & Done Paul Nicholls 156
21 Bravemansgame (FR) 10 11 0 Bryan Drew Paul Nicholls 155
22 Chantry House (IRE) 11 10 13 Mr John P. McManus Nicky Henderson 154
23 Galvin (IRE) 11 10 13 Mr R. A. Bartlett Gordon Elliott 154
24 Perceval Legallois (FR) 8 10 12 Mr John P. McManus Gavin Cromwell 153
25 Threeunderthrufive (IRE) 10 10 12 McNeill Family Paul Nicholls 153
26 Fakir d'Oudairies (FR) 10 10 11 Mr John P. McManus Joseph Patrick O'Brien 152
27 Iroko (FR) 7 10 11 Mr John P. McManus Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero 152
28 Kandoo Kid (FR) 9 10 11 Mr Michael Geoghegan Paul Nicholls 152
29 Trelawne (GB) 9 10 11 The Real Partnership Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 152
30 Idas Boy (IRE) 11 10 10 Dozen Dreamers Richard Phillips 151
31 Intense Raffles (FR) 7 10 10 Mr Simon Munir/Mr Isaac Souede T. Gibney 151
32 Limerick Lace (IRE) 8 10 10 Mr John P. McManus Gavin Cromwell 151
33 Senior Chief (GB) 8 10 10 Lucky In Life Syndicate Henry de Bromhead 151
34 Broadway Boy (IRE) 7 10 9 Mr D. M. Proos Nigel Twiston-Davies 150
35 Coko Beach (FR) 10 10 9 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott 150
36 Farouk d'Alene (FR) 10 10 9 Mr Justin Carthy Gary Brown 150
37 Fil Dor (FR) 7 10 9 Robcour Gordon Elliott 150
38 French Dynamite (FR) 10 10 9 Robcour M. F. Morris 150
39 Mr Incredible (IRE) 9 10 9 Mr J. Manclark Sandy Thomson 150
40 Stay Away Fay (IRE) 8 10 9 Bell, Lyons, Hill Paul Nicholls 150
41 Zanahiyr (IRE) 8 10 9 Bective Stud Gordon Elliott 150
42 Pinkerton (IRE) 9 10 8 Mr P. L. Polly Noel Meade 149
43 Meetingofthewaters (IRE) 8 10 7 Mr John P. McManus W. P. Mullins 148
44 Minella Drama (IRE) 10 10 7 Green Day Racing Donald McCain 148
45 Velvet Elvis (IRE) 9 10 7 Mr D. Kierans Gavin Cromwell 148
46 Celebre d'Allen (FR) 13 10 6 Mr Allan Stennett Philip Hobbs & Johnson White 147
47 Fontaine Collonges (FR) 10 10 6 Mr P. Davies Venetia Williams 147
48 Horantzau d'Airy (FR) 8 10 6 Mrs S. Ricci W. P. Mullins 147
49 Hyland (FR) 8 10 6 The Ten From Seven Nicky Henderson 147
50 Monbeg Genius (IRE) 9 10 6 Martin Tedham & Wasdell Properties Ltd. Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill 147
51 Vanillier (FR) 10 10 6 Mrs H. M. Keaveney Gavin Cromwell 147
52 Minella Crooner (IRE) 9 10 5 KTDA Racing/Nick Courtney/Cillian Moran Gordon Elliott 146
53 Quick Wave (FR) 12 10 5 Ms Sharon Kinsella Venetia Williams 146
54 Three Card Brag (IRE) 8 10 5 Patrick & Scott Bryceland, McNeill Family Gordon Elliott 146
55 Twig (GB) 10 10 5 Mrs G. Morgan Ben Pauling 146
56 Duffle Coat (IRE) 8 10 4 Mr Ray Stokes Gordon Elliott 145
57 Roi Mage (FR) 13 10 4 Pryde/Van Der Hoeven/McGladery/Beaumont Patrick Griffin 145
58 Shakem Up'arry (IRE) 11 10 4 Mr Harry Redknapp Ben Pauling 145
59 Fantastic Lady (FR) 10 10 3 Mr E. R. Hanbury Nicky Henderson 144
60 Favori de Champdou (FR) 10 10 3 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott 144
61 Yeah Man (IRE) 8 10 3 John J. Brennan/Martin Hannan Gavin Cromwell 144
62 Chemical Energy (IRE) 9 10 2 Bective Stud Gordon Elliott 143
63 Macdermott (FR) 7 10 2 Gallagher Bloodstock Limited W. P. Mullins 143
64 Mister Coffey (FR) 10 10 2 Lady Bamford & Alice Bamford Nicky Henderson 143
65 Mr Vango (IRE) 9 10 2 Cracker and Smodge Partnership Sara Bradstock 143
66 Bronn (IRE) 8 10 1 Mr Simon Munir/Mr Isaac Souede T. Gibney 142
67 Desertmore House (IRE) 10 10 1 O. B. P. Carroll/Anthony Vaughan Martin Brassil 142
68 Malina Girl (IRE) 8 10 1 Mrs J. M. Russell Gavin Cromwell 142
69 Richmond Lake (IRE) 9 10 1 Hemmings Racing Donald McCain 142
70 La Renommee (FR) 7 10 0 Upton House Stud Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole 141
71 King Turgeon (FR) 7 9 13 Somerset Racing David Pipe 140
72 Stuzzikini (IRE) 7 9 13 VCS Versatile Coating Specialist/F Foran Gordon Elliott 140
73 Cruz Control (FR) 8 9 12 Mr F Green and Mr J Chinn Tom Lacey 139
74 Surrey Quest (IRE) 8 9 12 Surrey Racing (SQ) Toby Lawes 139
75 Apple Away (IRE) 8 9 11 Old Gold Racing 14 Lucinda Russell 138
76 Busselton (FR) 8 9 11 Friendship Partnership Joseph Patrick O'Brien 138
77 Gevrey (FR) 9 9 11 Denis Gallagher Racing Gordon Elliott 138
78 Spanish Harlem (FR) 7 9 11 Dr S. P. Fitzgerald W. P. Mullins 138
79 The Goffer (IRE) 8 9 10 Mr Allan Snow Gordon Elliott 137
80 Famous Bridge (IRE) 9 9 9 Hemmings Racing Nicky Richards 136
81 Copperhead (GB) 11 9 7 Mrs G. C. Pritchard Joe Tizzard 134
82 Escaria Ten (FR) 11 9 7 J B Property Investments (Midlands) Ltd Martin Keighley 134
83 Where It All Began (IRE) 9 9 7 McNeill Family/Patrick & Scott Bryceland Gordon Elliott 134
84 Git Maker (FR) 9 9 6 Sheep As A Lamb Syndicate Jamie Snowden 133
85 Gericault Roque (FR) 9 9 4 Prof. Caroline Tisdall and Bryan Drew David Pipe 131
86 Pats Fancy (IRE) 10 9 3 Hydes, McDermott, Spencer, Frobisher & Lee Rebecca Curtis 130
87 Placenet (FR) 8 9 3 Prof C Tisdall & G Thompson D. Cottin 130
Minella Cocooner not brilliant on 157 (11-02) but, depending on his prep run, not a killer.
I'll be putting the model's full slide rule over the top 60 in the weights (down to GNOR144) but for those interested in a quick and (fairly) ruthless stat-filter to find this year's winner, you might care to apply something like these 4 tests
They're from among the 15 applied as a negative screen by my model, including 3 that are among the strongest outperformance factors for GN winners since 2013.
Although this method comes to a similar conclusion to my model's initial reckoning in terms of the best "fit" with modern Winners, a number of GN near-missers (by as little as a Head in Pleasant Company's case) since 2013 would not have passed this crude 4-step filter (especially test 1).
As it takes only a moment of misfortune to account for 5L or more in a GN, my full model is based not only on Winner's stats but those of all frame-makers, particularly those <10L, and not just their CVs but, crucially, their pedigrees.
The model also doesn't apply any test as a "blackball", as this quick filter does but, rather, allows up to 2 fails (thus requiring >85% compliance). That's the reason when the dust settles after preps (if not before) I'll be backing for e/w or place only some of those eliminated below, as well as the 3 I've already backed e/w.
However, if you want a quick way of using trends to find the Winner, I hope this helps:
1. With the exception of last year's winner, must be a 1st or 2nd season chaser (10/11 winners since 2013; 10/10 since 2014):
Eliminate:
Envoi Allen
Royale Pagaille
L'Homme Presse
Hewick
Bravemansgame
The Real Whacker
Delta Work
Minella Indo
Beauport
Hitman
Galvin
Appreciate It
Capodanno
Chantry House
Conflated
Threeunderthrufive
Idas Boy
Limerick Lace
Fil Dor
Minella Drama
Mr Incredible
Farouk d'Alene
Coko Beach
Quick Wave
Vanillier
Stumptown
Meetingofthewaters
French Dynamite
Fakir d'Oudairies
Celebre d'Allen
Fontaine Collonges
Shakem Up'arry
Minella Crooner
Twig
Velvet Elvis
Roi Mage
Fantastic Lady
Monbeg Genius
Cut some slack (1 run prior to May 2023):
Gentlemansgame
Minella Cocooner
2. If GNOR 148+, must have won or near-missed (<5L) in a Class 1 chase at 26f+ (6/6 winners allotted GNOR 148+ since 2013)
Eliminate (for the moment):
Grangeclare West
Gentlemansgame
Montys Star
Perceval Legallois
Iroko
Trelawne
Stay Away Fay
Zanahiyr
Pinkerton
Senior Chief
Cut some slack (won highly competitive Class 2 at 26f):
Inothewayurthinkin
3. Must have won or near-missed in a chase with 18+ runners (10/11 since 2013)
Eliminate (for the moment):
Broadway Boy
Hyland
Three Card Brag
Favori de Champdou
Cut some slack (near-missed in field of 17):
Horantzau d'Airy
4. Must have notched a 24f+ chase RPR = GNOR + at least 2lbs (11/11 winners & 10/11 runners-up since 2013)
Eliminate (for the moment):
Nick Rockett (-5)
Duffle Coat (-5)
Horantzau d'Airy (0)
SHORT LIST:
What about the other two?
INTENSE RAFFLES (16/1)
Aside from his impressive Irish GN win (under 11-04 on Heavy), the form of which is decent (3 of the 6 behind him winning subsequently off the same or up to 6lbs higher marks) he's unbeaten over fences since arriving from France. That said, all 3 runs were at Fairyhouse and on Soft or Hvy.
He's almost certain to return there for the Bobbyjo in a couple of weeks.
His career stats and GNOR are certainly consistent with a strong show at Aintree but the limiting factor for me is pedigree.
On the plus side, he's closely related to a 4m Hunter Chase winner, Coup De Pinceau (also 8th in the 2021 Scottish GN [outpaced]) and he's from the wider family of the half-brothers Silviniaco Conti, Class Conti and Ucello Conti (also Munir owned), all 3 ran of which ran in GNs; Ucello performing best (6th and a UR 4 out when going well in the soft-ground GNs of 2016 and 2018, and another UR).
He's also nicely linebred to Mill Reef (as was One For Arthur and Balko Des Flos).
But he benefits from none other of the range of key pedigree ingredients of which all 35 GN winners and <10L finishers have had an appreciably stronger blend.
Even with a decent CV, barring mayhem or a bog, my model rates him at best a 4~6th place finisher (at least 10L adrift).
INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN (8/1)
Leniently treated to be given his Irish OR 160 (11-05) and the market appears to agree, making him the new fav.
Despite the trainer's cagey-ness, I would imagine he'll line up. Where he runs for his prep, who knows but it could be an absolute stellar Bobbyjo if that's Gavin Cromwell's choice.
A Novice Grade 1 and Kim Muir winner, his last outing was a fine 7L behind the x2 GC winner and this fella's CV unsurprisingly has all the right stats for a strong run at Aintree. Notably he's 2 wins from 2 chases in the Spring and is at home on any ground.
As with Intense Raffles, from my model's perspective, it comes down to Pedigree:
On the plus side, he's by a force of a sire, Walk In The Park. Damsire Califet sired GN rival Beauport (won Midlands Nat) and the ill-fated Eclair Surf (close 2nd in an Eider), while 2nd Damsire Video Rock was Damsire of GN stalwarts Saint Are and Delta Work.
That's all good but, again, it's a weaker fit overall with modern GN winners than the pedigrees of Max, Kandoo Kid and Minella Cocooner.
It's reminiscent of an old-style GN winner's pedigree. For example there's no Group 1 winner among his first 3 damsires and none have produced G1 winners.
Of the 11 GN winners since 2013 and the 8 that finished <5L of them, that's true of only Pineau De Re (arguably fortunate that Balthazar King encountered hazards while taking the scenic route in 2014) and Rathvinden, who ran out of gas (according to Ruby on board) in 3rd in 2019.
It's very consistent with those placing 5~10L in a modern GN.
So, while I'm expecting him to be there or thereabouts at The Elbow, his GN-profile suggests "close, but no cigar". ....... famous last words !
Having plugged in the GNORs, a run of the slide rule over the top 3 Winning Calibre pedigrees confirms my model's assessment:
- I Am Maximus - must Win or near-miss in his prep (almost certainly the Bobbyjo in 9 days time) to confirm Winning Potential
- Kandoo Kid - already has a Winning profile - a safe spin in his prep (likely at Kempton in 9 days time) would enhance
- Minella Cocooner - GNOR157 is at full
stretch for his CV but, so long as he runs creditably if he partakes in a
hot-looking Bobbyjo, he'll have the profile to win or near-miss on 5 April
Not absolutely certain but these are likely to be the only Winning Candidates identified by my model this year and which, subject to confirming preps in Max's and MC's cases, I'll be retaining my e/w interests.There are 2 other GN debutants with a pedigree correlated with GN winners and near-missers:
- Conflated 100/1 looks a spent force - at least a year, more like 2, too late to have a tilt
- ZANAHIYR 66/1 - is intriguing. Bred by the Aga Khan, like Cause Of Causes he initially raced on the flat (remember also, Red Rum's first race was a 5f selling plate) and he has an extraordinary pedigree for a GN runner that correlates with many modern GN winners, now encompassing top Classic winners in their breeding:
A 2nd season chaser (kaching!) he's a x4 runner-up in 2m Grade 1s over hurdles, 3rd (1L) in last July's Galway Plate; just 1 run at 3 miles (5th in a slightly farcical Kerry National won from the front by Flooring Porter), he must make the frame in a Class 1 24f or Class 1/2 26f+ chase to confirm GN winning calibre profile.
It will be interesting to see where Elliott sends him next time. It may or may not be, but will strongly pique my interest if it's the Festival XC.
Keeping a very close eye on the handicap entries for Cheltenham.
HOWEVER, if you’re following my model (for which I much appreciate the confidence) please note that a GN-correlated pedigree is a necessary but not sufficient feature. For the model to rate him winning calibre he’s got to tick the CV boxes.
I’m going to wait to see where he’s entered because it’s highly unlikely his odds will shorten in the meantime.
Also will be a good indication of whether Elliott thinks he may have what it takes.
This is an “out there” pick.
There are others with Strong Place potential that will need backing, when the Place only market starts, so I’m going to be choosy.
So with Max, Minella Cocooner and especially Zanahiyr still with work to do to join Kandoo Kid with Winning Profiles, which entries are flashing away brightest on the model’s radar screen as the Next Best alternatives, should they fail to do so, or as final additions to the team sheet?
Let's consider 3 groups:
1. Returning horses:
(a) previously placed
We know that some horses come alive over the GN fences, even at an advanced age and defying poor form. Oscar Time hadn't made the frame since his close 2nd to Ballabriggs in 2011, when he rolled back the years as a 12 yo with an exuberant 4th in the 2013 GN.
The fact is, the stats are good for returning placers repeating the feat.
Since 2013, horses that have placed (2~5) have a x2.7 outperformance factor in doing so again (Cappa Bleu, Oscar Time, Alvarado, Saint Are, Anibale Fly, Any Second Now and Delta Work all obliging) - that's 18.% of places 2~5 from 6.8% of fields.
But sadly the stats are not good for them lifting the prize.
It’s a sobering fact that it’s 21 years since a former GN placer last won a GN - Amberleigh House, and that was a case of misfortune striking debutant Clan Royal, whose jockey lost his whip a long way from home and was unable to stop his horse wandering after The Elbow, conceding a commanding lead agonisingly on the line. He's the only horse to have done so since Hallo Dandy, 41 years ago.
We have 4 returning GN placers this April and, on their preferred ground, my model rates all of them as potential repeat frame-makers, and even potential winners if misfortune were to strike key others.
In order of potential interest:
(b) previously unplaced
Those returning runners that failed to make the frame on their first run, while they can do so at the 2nd time of asking, tend to underperform (by a factor of x0.86).
The most likely to go better are EITHER those that had nice debuts as 7 yos, were given patient rides and manifestly saw out the trip (Saint Are and Cause Of Causes) OR were the victim of misfortune or had been unwisely ridden (Rare Bob BD; Balthazar King suicidal pace; Monbeg Dude jumping blunders; Gas Line Boy F1st; Pleasant Company stumbled badly when with leaders; Galvin UR1st).
Only 1 (on paper) might fit the criteria for potentially faring better:
- Mr Incredible - x2 UR - please no! Though his season's form reading a solitary R really would make him the outlier of all outliers.
By the way, it's 16 years since a returning unplaced horse won a GN (Mon Mome - YAY!!) and arguably he was the beneficiary of a major drop in pace when misfortune struck Black Apalachi at 2nd Bechers.Other than Tiger, a GN debutant has won every GN since and, as we know, since 2013 the stats materially favour 2nd season chasers.
2. GN debutants with pedigrees correlated with Strong Place Potential (5~10L):
Royale Pagaille (running in today's GN Trial at his beloved Haydock), Nick Rockett, Gentlemansgame and The Real Whacker all have pedigrees consistent with those placing 5~10L in modern GNs. BUT, at their GNORs, it's improbable if not impossible for them to tick the career stats to figure on 5 April.
Those that could, if ticking the boxes in their preps:
So, aside from potentially 4 Winning Candidates, these are the entries flashing away as the strongest Place candidates on my model's radar screen; possibly winners if misfortune strikes for my model's top picks (as it did in 2023):
- Vanillier
- Galvin (on GS)
- Delta Work (Soft~Heavy)
- Iroko
- Senior Chief (GS)
- Twig (GS)
Assuming there's still at least 3 Winning Candidates e/w on my betting slip, I'll be looking to add (probably) Place only interests on some of these when that market kicks off and depending on their preps and my guesstimate of ground conditions.Plenty of water to flow under several bridges yet but I hope this is helpful or, in any event, interesting.
COYR
Of the 32 runners, 28 have run subsequently in a total of 82 races.
They've produced only 3 wins (by Vanillier, Roi Mage and Minella Crooner), of which 2 were over XC courses.
That's a very poor 3.7% win rate.
Either last year's GN on Soft took a toll like old GNs used to or, perhaps, it wasn't such a strong a race?
I see you've snaffled the last of the 200s - I shall bide my time and follow suit. Too painful to contemplate, as you say.
Cheers.
Nice run in 2nd from Threeunderthrufive who'll find himself well-in if he lines up at Aintree but his pedigree gives him at best minor place potential, by my model's reckoning.
Small field Rendlesham hurdle isn't going to tell us much. Ran nicely, staying on but staying is his game.
His best 2 wins have been:
- Midlands National over 34f in Mar 24 by 1.75~2.25L from Mr Incredible and My Silver Lining off OR140, for which he was put up 4lbs
- Berkshire National over 29.5f at Ascot in Nov 24 by 31L off OR144, for which he was put up 12lbs to his current OR156
BUT consider what he beat in both races:Runners in that Midlands National have run 35 times since, producing 1 win (his own at Ascot)
Runners in the Berkshire Nat have run 18 times since, producing 1 win (a Class 4 hurdle)
He's a fine stayer but he's got a lot to do off GN156 (11-01). Maybe if it's testing ground, that will play to his strength, as he's got an old-fashioned National Hunt pedigree (and that now-underperforming mtDNA) but I suspect he'll find several too classy.
But, never say never.
yes
Sure, things could happen, but when you consider the whole picture it just makes me suspicious a bit if he will make it.
[I'm using stats Grittar prepared on Grand National Guide Bloggers]
To each their own and good luck to those who use those figures.
I don’t use Dosage because there are holes in the data, especially with French breds, that IMHO make comparisons flawed.
For example, does a figure of 8 suggest a runner’s unlikely to win?
Mon Mome’s DP was 4, Neptune Collonges’s was 2 and Pineau De Re’s was also 2. All 3 were French bred, but so too is Iroko.
That said, I come to the same view about him as you - he’s place rather than winning material, so 14/1 is way too skinny.