Potentially a very interesting Thyestes this afternoon at Gowran, with Aintree in mind.
As usual it will be soft going and a number of likely or possible Aintree runners will be running; some needing to win it to get the requisite boost to their mark to make the Aintree cut but timing is an issue for those already with a OR145+ mark, being less than 3 weeks before the GN weights are framed.
It's a race that's been part of the campaign for many GN runners in recent years but has rarely (even vaguely) pointed to an Aintree winner. Just one in fact - Rule The World, 5th at Gowran and winner of the ensuing soft ground GN of 2016.
Maybe a near-miss is the secret because Longhouse Poet (2022) and Aint That A Shame (2024) both won the Thyestes and went on to make 6th at the following Aintree, but Longhouse Poet was upped 10lbs for his Gowran victory and Ain't That A Shame 8lbs. In the former's case, his pre-existing mark would have secured him a run at Aintree anyway and running there with perhaps 10-09 rather than 11-04 could have made a huge difference.
Nick Rockett is a worthy 7/2 today but he's already assured a GN berth with Irish OR152 and I would have thought, while the prize money is always nice, a competitive run but nothing spectacularly is really the order of the day.
Those that have every reason to be "all out" include Macdermott (winner of the Scottish GN) (Irish OR140). His pedigree doesn't excite my model but 3 others very much do:
Shannon Royale (Irish OR140) 7/1
Stuzzikini (140) 20/1 - first run since Troytown victory and test of stamina will suit
Spanish Harlem (137) 25/1 - conditions much more suitable for him than the PP Handicap a month ago
Potentially a very interesting Thyestes this afternoon at Gowran, with Aintree in mind.
As usual it will be soft going and a number of likely or possible Aintree runners will be running; some needing to win it to get the requisite boost to their mark to make the Aintree cut but timing is an issue for those already with a OR145+ mark, being less than 3 weeks before the GN weights are framed.
It's a race that's been part of the campaign for many GN runners in recent years but has rarely (even vaguely) pointed to an Aintree winner. Just one in fact - Rule The World, 5th at Gowran and winner of the ensuing soft ground GN of 2016.
Maybe a near-miss is the secret because Longhouse Poet (2022) and Aint That A Shame (2024) both won the Thyestes and went on to make 6th at the following Aintree, but Longhouse Poet was upped 10lbs for his Gowran victory and Ain't That A Shame 8lbs. In the former's case, his pre-existing mark would have secured him a run at Aintree anyway and running there with perhaps 10-09 rather than 11-04 could have made a huge difference.
Nick Rockett is a worthy 7/2 today but he's already assured a GN berth with Irish OR152 and I would have thought, while the prize money is always nice, a competitive run but nothing spectacularly is really the order of the day.
Those that have every reason to be "all out" include Macdermott (winner of the Scottish GN) (Irish OR140). His pedigree doesn't excite my model but 3 others very much do:
Shannon Royale (Irish OR140) 7/1
Stuzzikini (140) 20/1 - first run since Troytown victory and test of stamina will suit
Spanish Harlem (137) 25/1 - conditions much more suitable for him than the PP Handicap a month ago
Will be keeping a close eye on all 3 today.
Wow. What do I know? Nothing spectacular was NOT the order of the day for Nick Rockett. He impressively wins in company with Velvet Elvis, both storming well clear of the rest. Another boost to the form of the PP Hdcp won by Perceval Legallois (Three Card Brag having already firmly franked it) and to the Bet365 of last April (i.e. Minella Cocooner). Velvet Elvis's proximity may make the handicapper's job tricky but you'd have to suppose Nick Rockett will be around 160 for Aintree (around 11-04). He's certainly progressive but he'll likely be at least 8lbs worse off with Minella Cocooner than when 2.5L behind at Sandown over 28.5f. Cut to 16s for the big one. Pedigree's consistent with strong place potential (3rd~4th) but that GNOR will be crucial and there are likely to be at least a couple of stronger winning-calibre candidates by my model's reckoning. In fact, on an initial recky, my model might be napping a home-trained runner this year. More shortly.
Time for a quick rundown on the tweaks made to my model since last April, which has now picked 4 of the last 6 GN winners (to my eternal annoyance I thought Tiger too short to back in 2018 and 2019).
It seems to be on the way to regaining something like its pre-2013 form, when it had winner and/or 2nd in all 7 GNs 2006~12 but it's clearly still well short of that and there are always refinements to be made and this year's been no exception.
Aside from recalibrating the "Days Since Run" stat (2nd, 3rd and 4th last April all breaking a long-standing stat, with the XC abandonment), the main focus again has been on pedigrees and I've done a lot of drilling down into those of all 427 runners since 2013, covering some hitherto unexplored facets and yielding some interesting new angles - particularly regarding the sire-line and maternal family, including the mitochondrial DNA of runners.
Now don't doze off, it's a good one because mitochondria are the 'power plants' of cells of all mammals and inside each is a single chromosome inherited only from the mother. They are therefore "non-recombinant" i.e. they tend to be stable over even thousands of years.
It's generally considered that racehorses derive their stamina principally from their damside (mother) and a key factor may well be the type of mitochondrial DNA ("haplotype") that's inherited. If so, then we may get a clue as to a runner's potential over a marathon trip from the specific female family to which it belongs (there are around 100 different such families) and more specifically the mtDNA type ("haplotype") it's inherited (there are around 30 different haplotypes, reflecting differing ancient sources of DNA of the modern thoroughbred).
And, while there are obviously other factors of significance, it follows that blood-relations (even distant ones) that were stars over extended trips, and even those from other families that share the same mtDNA, can be a significant pointer to GN success.
So, are there statistically meaningful + or - correlations between haplotype and GN success?
From my research, the answer is yes and, what's more, that correlation altered significantly with the change in character of the GN after 2012.
In the 10 GNs 2003~12, runners with the mtDNA "haplotype" L2b1a materially punched above their weight - contributing 7% of fields but 29% (5 of 17) winners or <5L near-missers (Montys Pass, Clan Royal, King Johns Castle, Ballabriggs and Seabass).
BUT in the 11 GNs since 2013, this haplotype has been represented by 23 runners (5.4%) but has drawn a TOTAL blank, not just with winners but with all 55 frame-makers (1~5). If there no correlation, according to random distribution you’d expect them to have produced 3 frame-makers over those 11 years. In actuality, not a sausage.
Conversely, those with the mtDNA haplotype (N2a), which had contributed just 2 of 75 (<3%) frame-makers since 1998 (Slim Pickings and Big Fella Thanks), have been the material outperformers in "modern" GNs; 11.9% of runners since 2013 contributing 4 winners (36%) - Rule The World, One For Arthur, Minella Times and I Am Maximus - and another 6 frame-makers (18%). So, in terms of winning, these runners have been outperforming their representation by 200% and frame-making by 50%.
Of course, there are 2 dozen other stats that my model uses when running its slide rule over runners' CVs and pedigrees but the mtDNA stat is of particular significance (positively and negatively) to a couple of this year's GN debutants and leading fancies.
If this were a pre-2013 GN, Midlands National winner Beauport (33/1) could well have been one on my shortlist but, among other things, he's a representative of the now-underperforming L2b1a haplotype, meaning that, in 2025, my model rates him at best a minor place candidate.
Conversely, one it rates strongly as Winning Calibre, that has the outperforming N2a mtDNA and that's likely to appear on my betting slip, is:
KANDOO KID (25/1) - Paul Nicholls
- Won over the furthest trip to date - November's 26f Coral Gold Cup [aka Hennessy] with 11-05 off OR145 on seasonal bow (form franked by 3rd and 5th; KK's RPR for that run being upped 2lbs to 157 in the process). Unexposed at >26f but so too was Many Clouds, the last Hennessy and GN double-doer.
- OR upped to 152 and he'll likely carry a very winnable-with weight (around 10-10)
- Has form over the GN fences (close 3rd in last year's Topham)
- A 9yo in his 2nd season chasing - 27% of GN runners since 2013 have been 1st or 2nd season chasers and have contributed 9 of the 11 winners (82%)
- Made the frame in 7 of 8 chases (2 wins, 2 near-misses)
- His pedigree overall ranks only just inferior to I Am Maximus; comparable to the likes of Rule The World, One For Arthur, Minella Times and Corach Rambler - 5 horses with pedigrees of that calibre have run 8 times in the last 11 GNs and won 4 of them (only Lifetime Ambition ranked among them and failed [URd when badly hampered at the 9th in the mayhem of 2023]). KK is closely related to Politilogue but, from a GN perspective, his pedigree strengths are:
an array of Damsires 1~3, all of whom were not only Group 1 winners but damsires of top stayers: damsire Muhtathir also damsired a G1 Prix Cadran (20f) winner; DS2 the top-stayer Turgeon is damsire of GN close 2nd Vaniller and a top French stayer (Shannon Rock - the "Durham Edition" of Auteil's G1 Grande Steeple-Chase de Paris over 30f); and DS3 Le Glorieux damsired the great staying hurdler Big Bucks and a 4m winner over fences.
though distantly related, he's from the family of GN winner Rule The World and 5th Shutthefrontdoor. Notably that makes him a representative of the out-performing N2a mtDNA haplotype.
sire Kapgarde has fathered just 2 GN runners to date - Ultragold (another that loved the fences but was short of damside stamina) and the luckless Lifetime Ambition, but he sired a high class winner of the 30f Grande Steeple-Chase de Paris. Interestingly, his progeny have their best records at the Newbury November meeting (an impressive 26.7% win record from 30 runners) and at the Aintree Festival (25% from 40 runners). By comparison, at the Cheltenham Festival his offspring have just 2 wins (both A Plus Tard) from 69 runs (2.9%). This may indicate that Kapgarde's progeny have a marked preference for flat, left handed tracks. KK himself is 212231 at Newbury and Aintree.
- His Hennessy win was his first run since wind surgery (officially his 3rd such surgery, though Nicholls tends to take a pre-emptive approach) and was evidence that he goes well fresh. Hasn't run since but hopefully will have a prep prior to 5 April because, stats-wise, less than 3 runs in the season isn't ideal. Though Pleasant Company and Rathvinden near-missed after just 2 and 1 runs respectively, even Rathvinden's solitary run was in the sweet spot (42 days prior). Going to Aintree without a run this calendar year wouldn't jive with winning a GN (all 19 winners and near-missers since 2013 have had a run 84 days or less beforehand (mid-Jan onwards).
Of other possible GN debutants from the leading fancies in the market (out to 40/1), the next highest rated by my model is currently:
MINELLA COCOONER (25/1) - Willie Mullins
- 2 runs at 3.5m+ last spring produced a 4L 3rd under topweight in the Irish GN (OR148) on Heavy, followed up 26 days later by a strong-finishing win in the Bet365 (aka "Whitbread") at Sandown (OR151) on Good (giving 4lbs to Nick Rockett, 2.5L behind - MC could well be receiving weight from him at Aintree). Nick Rockett and 4th place Certainly Red both franked the form with wins off higher marks.
- Though a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, he's been overmatched exclusively in Grade 1 chase company over 20~24f this season; possibly to elicit an ease in rating (duly dropped 2lbs to Irish OR156). Entered in Saturday's PP's Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown (66/1) possibly to stress his limitations ahead of the framing of the GN weights. But I expect him, alongside stablemates, to line up and be fully charged for a strong show in the Bobbyjo Chase in a month's time.
- He does need a quality run, if not on Saturday then in his final prep, wherever that is, and ideally to notch a new RPR-high, post-weights. He'll surely be allotted a GNOR at a premium to his Irish mark but on his current best form, particularly as a 3rd season chaser, a GNOR156 (c. 11-00) is his maximum to have a strong winning chance, by the model's calculations.
- Pedigree ticks a lot of boxes, the principal stallions in his breeding having major GN success as sires:
by Flemensfirth (also sired 3 GN runners-up: King Johns Castle, The Last Samuri and Magic Of Light)
damsire Old Vic sired winners Don't Push It & Comply Or Die and 2nd Black Apalachi; 2nd damsire Roselier sired winners Bindaree and Royal Athlete and twice 2nd Suny Bay, as well as other renowned stayers; and damsire 3, Electric, sired an Ascot Gold Cup winner and a 4m chase winner
his dam was a 7-time winner Under Rules up to 3m, Askanna. She was sister to another Irish GN 3rd, Abolitionist, about whom my model was sweet prior to his succumbing to injury; all from the same maternal line as Hedgehunter.
Of course, once the entries and weights (11 Feb) are out, there could be other GN debutants flashing brightly on my model's radar screen but if MC puts in strong post-weights' run, he'll likely be carrying a couple of my shillings.
Returning Runners of Possible Interest:
I AM MAXIMUS (12/1)
As noted last year, he has an immensely strong pedigree for a modern GN, matched only by Tiger Roll's since 2013. That's a constant, obviously, but is only half the equation. Minella Times also had a strong GN pedigree but (as used to be generally so) one GN win effectively put an end to his potency on the track - evident in his poor subsequent campaign. With a PU in his only outing, Max has to show he retains his potency.
He's also entered for Saturday's Irish Gold Cup (50/1), but the key test will likely be in the Bobbyjo in a month's time, which he won impressively last year. He needs to at least approximate that form to be backable at Aintree. One to watch closely.
GALVIN (40/1)
Of the frame-makers last April, his keeping-on 8.5L 4th was arguably as impressive a run as the winner's, coming on ground that greatly favoured I Am Maximus. He received 4lbs that day from the winner but will likely be in receipt of as much as a stone this April.
His only run since was October’s near-miss in the US "Grand National" (a G1 21f hurdle) at Far Hills - too short a trip nowadays for this 11 yo. Not seen since (hopefully nothing amiss but being lightly-campaigned avoiding deep ground), if he gets his preferred decent surface in April, he's not too old to be a force and even a "3rd time lucky" winner (no horse has done this since at least 1988).
A safe spin somewhere post-weights and he'll very likely be appearing on my betting slip.
DELTA WORK (40/1)
At 12 years old, unless it were to come up deep ground, his winning chance has likely gone.
Not since State Of Play (434, 2009~11 as a 9~11yo) has a horse placed 3 times in a GN but Delta Work would be a strong candidate to do so on Soft or Heavy.
Pedigree-wise, of those shortest in the betting currently, though they may have minor place potential, my model's NOT keen as Winning or Strong Place candidates on:
Intense Raffles
Beauport
Three Card Brag
Embassy Gardens
Perceval Legallois (another of the now under-performing haplotype L2b1a)
Apple Away Appreciate It Beauport Bravemansgame Broadway Boy Bronn Busselton Capodanno Celebre D’Allen Chantry House Chemical Energy Coko Beach Conflated Copperhead Cruz Control Delta Work Desertmore House Duffle Coat Envoi Allen Escaria Ten Fakir D’Oudairies Famous Bridge Fantastic Lady Farouk D’Alene Favori De Champdou Fil Dor Fontaine Collonges French Dynamite Galvin Gentlemansgame Gericault Roque Gerri Colombe Gevrey Git Maker Grangeclare West Hewick Hitman Horantzau D’Airy Hyland I Am Maximus Idas Boy Inothewayurthinkin Intense Raffles Iroko Kandoo Kid King Turgeon L’Homme Presse La Renommee Limerick Lace Macdermott Malina Girl Meetingofthewaters Minella Cocooner Minella Crooner Minella Drama Minella Indo Mister Coffey Monbeg Genius Monty’s Star Motu Fareone Mr Incredible Mr Vango Nick Rockett Pats Fancy Perceval Legallois Pinkerton Placenet Quick Wave Richmond Lake Roi Mage Royale Pagaille Senior Chief Shakem Up’Arry Spanish Harlem Stay Away Fay Stumptown Stuzzikini Surrey Quest The Goffer The Real Whacker Three Card Brag Threeunderthrufive Trelawne Twig Vanillier Velvet Elvis Where It All Began Yeah Man Your Own Story Zanahiyr
I know he’s not done any racing to elicit a change but it is a bit of a nonsense that he’s still OR150 - same as last GN. He’ll make the cut unless the handicapper pulls a fast one. I’ve got nothing against the owners for taking him on but, with only 34 max and given his history, it can’t be right for him to get a berth in place of a genuine runner.
I thought there was supposed to be a rule, or a committee that would make a determination, to call a halt to the career of a repeat RR. Not unreasonable to let Sandy and the new owners try to run him in the Roland Meyrick (change of yard/scenery might have produced a change) but he didn't even deign to run at all there. I know the safety thing is overdone these days - it's a dangerous sport FFS - BUT imagine the consequences if he plants or ducks out at a fence and causes mayhem or worse. I'd be very surprised if they don't find a way to exclude him. At the very least, they should require a demonstration beforehand of a willingness to race IMHO.
Unusual difference of opinion between Irish handicapper and RPR regarding Nick Rockett's Thyestes win. Though both stormed clear of the rest, I thought the proximity of Velvet Elvis (more exposed than NR), might pose a teaser. RPR rated the win just 158 but the Irish handicapper's more impressed than even I thought he might be and upped him 9lbs to OR161. If the British handicapper follows up, he could be on a very challenging GNOR162 (maybe 11-06). The highest winning GNOR since 2013 was Many Clouds' GNOR160, and he ran in the times of handicap-compression (ordinarily rated 165).
And also Iroko. I didn't see the last Cheltenham but judging by the Racing Post description it was a bit of a mess and could have placed better... Towards rear, not fluent and jockey lost iron briefly 3 out, headway 2 out, went fourth before last where not fluent, kept on (An inquiry was held into the running and riding of gelding, jockey stated that his instructions were to sit midfield and to try and get the gelding jumping, having felt he lost his confidence after failing in his previous run at Ascot, adding that he had formed this opinion having schooled the gelding at home, he reported that he made a mistake at the third last fence, causing him to lose his left iron, and having regained his stirrup found himself stuck to the inside, leaving him unable to improve his position until after the second last fence, he continued to add he felt in top gear throughout the race and that the gelding's jumping had suffered late on as a result, leading him to jumping the last fence slowly, he finished by stating that when taking all of the above into account, he felt that his hands and heels riding up the straight led to him obtaining the best possible placing)
Peanuts, what do you think (or what does your model say) about Limerick Lace? 10th last year, 8yo now, can it cope?
I was very sweet on her last April and she was unfortunate in running, getting clobbered at the first Canal Turn. That seemed to put her off jumping-wise but it's to her credit that she battled on and finished 10th 30L - highly creditable considering she had only 3 behind her at 2nd Canal Turn. By the 2nd last she was coming on strongly (at the rear of the pack, about 8L off the lead) but it's difficult to say she didn't get home, when she'd made up so much ground. Bear in mind she was a 7yo, she could well improve on that a year on, though her Irish OR is now +4lbs on her GNOR that day (she was well-in, having won the Mares Grade 2 at Cheltenham). As you probably know, she's a full sister to Inothewayurthinkin, who's also been entered though was said not to be aimed at the race. Having extended the Pedigree component of my model, form a purely pedigree perspective, relatively she's lost ground on others in the model's ratings, but still ranks (as does Inothewayurthinkin, of course) as a potential frame-maker but short of Winning Calibre. But there's a lot to like about her attitude and I think she gets the trip. If I weren't pathetically limited by Paddy Power, I'd be taking their 100/1 as a value each way.
And also Iroko. I didn't see the last Cheltenham but judging by the Racing Post description it was a bit of a mess and could have placed better... Towards rear, not fluent and jockey lost iron briefly 3 out, headway 2 out, went fourth before last where not fluent, kept on (An inquiry was held into the running and riding of gelding, jockey stated that his instructions were to sit midfield and to try and get the gelding jumping, having felt he lost his confidence after failing in his previous run at Ascot, adding that he had formed this opinion having schooled the gelding at home, he reported that he made a mistake at the third last fence, causing him to lose his left iron, and having regained his stirrup found himself stuck to the inside, leaving him unable to improve his position until after the second last fence, he continued to add he felt in top gear throughout the race and that the gelding's jumping had suffered late on as a result, leading him to jumping the last fence slowly, he finished by stating that when taking all of the above into account, he felt that his hands and heels riding up the straight led to him obtaining the best possible placing)
These are early days obviously, with weights allotted in 2 weeks. There's a lot of positive vibes about Iroko and he's a quality chaser, obviously. But plenty of quality chasers have found the GN a test too far. The Pedigree component of my model (in which I've got a fair amount of confidence, as it endorsed 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th as Winning or Near-Missing Calibre last year - the CV stat-score was awry for 2nd and 4th) I use as a pre-screen, so that I quickly focus on those with Winning or Near-Missing Calibre breeding. Obviously it's not infallible, either way, but by virtue of Iroko's pedigree, my model rates him (in a field of typical quality) as having Place Potential at best (probably 3rd~5th) and at least 10L behind the winner. Specifically, his sire Cokoriko doesn't fit the ideal; damsire Martaline (sire of Vanillier) is neutral; his 3rd damsire is interesting - Signani, also 3rd damsire of GN stalwart Saint Are, delivers some nice exposure to the stamina-at-speed influence Wild Risk; and he's linebred to Mill Reef (as was One For Arthur and Balko Des Flos). These are good foundations to indicate he can be there or thereabouts but there's nothing extra that puts him on a par with former winners and near-missers; for example, none of the sire or first 3 damsires are either G1 winners or producers of G1 winners. There are several with superior pedigrees already identified by the model - not surprisingly, I Am Maximus, Delta Work and Galvin but also Kandoo Kid (the strongest bar Max) and Minella Cocooner. And Nick Rockett's is marginally superior though, as noted, he'll have plenty on his back (probably too much). There could be others that I haven't put the slide rule over yet and, in any event, pedigree is only half the equation. If those 5 don't also have the requisite CV stat-score and GNOR to go with it, the pedigree promise counts for nothing. So, I've got a bit of work to do, and so have all the runners of course, but I'd be surprised if there aren't 4 or 5 that my model rates higher than Iroko come the day.
Happy to give you a specific analysis including his CV stat profile after the weights are out.
Last April, #53 at the weights was the last to make the cut off GNOR146 From these 90 entries, ranking them at their current ORs, #53 would also be OR146. Vanillier's dropped to 144 but could get a nudge up when the GN weights are framed.
Thank you for this, Peanuts, yes, I was sweet on Limerick Lace as well, might do a small bet here... I Am Maximus, Delta Work and Galvin - yes, and I hope it rains again!
Interesting reflection on the rise in "quality" of the GN in recent years that 7 of the 10 declared for the PP Irish Gold Cup tomorrow are also entered for the GN, though likely intention of running at Aintree no doubt varies.
Of particular interest for my model, as already noted, are I Am Maximus and Minella Cocooner. Neither are likely to trouble the best in the field but travelling well and remaining competitive until the last 4 furlongs is important, especially for Max. A post-GN weights strong run, probably in the Bobbyjo at the end of Feb, is what the doctor's ordering for both.
Others with GN entries have pedigrees short of Winning Calibre but with varying degrees of place potential:
Conflated (GN 100/1) - from the family of Grittar and Maori Venture, there was a time when he might have figured in my model's selections but, even with a drop in mark now to Irish OR158, he's done nothing in recent outings (including a very disappointing XC) to suggest he'd trouble the Aintree judge
Grangeclare West (50/1) - 2nd season chaser, closely related to GN 4th Gunner Welburn (more distantly to Escaria Ten), he'd be unlikely to fare any better.
Hewick (66/1) - related to top 4 miler Seventowers and Whitbread winner Deep Bramble, has decent place potential in a GN on decent ground.
Inothewayurthinkin (33/1) - 2nd season chaser, younger full-brother to Limerick Lace, is said not to be aimed at the GN but, if he does run, like her has decent place potential.
Monty's Star (33/1) - 2nd season chaser, closely related to Mr Incredible and more distantly to GN 5th Bonanza Boy - could make a minor place if lining up in the big one.
How can Galvin still only be 9 years old? He seems to have been entered for every National since Tiger Rolls first win
He's 11 in fact. Very pleased to see he's entered for a spin soon. 3 Feb at Punchestown - either the XC or a 2m chase, in which Stuzzikini also has an entry (a final chance to get his OR140 up to GN standard).
How can Galvin still only be 9 years old? He seems to have been entered for every National since Tiger Rolls first win
He's 11 in fact. Very pleased to see he's entered for a spin soon. 3 Feb at Punchestown - either the XC or a 2m chase, in which Stuzzikini also has an entry (a final chance to get his OR140 up to GN standard).
I have a feeling the days of older horses winning are gone. I won't rule anything out but i will mostly concentrate on 9 and under
Looks to me like Gordon Elliott's using the 3m chase over the Banks at Punchestown this Monday (a conditions race), as substitute GN prep for the Festival XC, now that the latter's been made a handicap. Coko Beach, Chemical Energy, Conflated, Delta Work, Galvin, Gevrey and The Goffer all entered and possibles for Aintree. Perhaps encouraged by the success of the 2nd, 3rd and 4th home last April whose Festival XC engagement was abandoned, especially given just a 3 week gap between Cheltenham and Aintree this year. This race is 61 days prior to the GN. Delta Work and Galvin both ran after a 62 day gap last April. Don't want too bold a show with the GN weights around the corner. From other yards, Roi Mage, Vanillier and Bronn also have GN entries.
Interesting reaction to the Gold Cup at Leopardstown, duly won by GDC.
Grangeclare West pushed him to within 5L and has been shortened for the GN to 20s. 4th and 5th Inothewayurthinkin (7L) and Montys Star (8L) also cut to 12s and 25s respectively. I Am Maximus ran much better than at Christmas, though as usual jumped to the left at many of the fences while Minella Cocooner displayed once again (lest there were any doubt) that he's not a top drawer Grade 1 chaser though, as in the Savills Chase, travelled and jumped nicely before being found out for lack of gears. Conflated brought up the rear.
I would say mission accomplished for Max and Minella Cocooner and their near-term target is now presumably the Bobbyjo at the end of the month. If Willie's succeeded in nudging the odd lb off the GNOR of one or both (unlikely in the case of Max), so much the better.
Meanwhile, PP Chase winner Perceval Legallois took the 3m hurdle impressively and is now likely heading for the GN. Duly cut to 20s.
Galvin has been scratched from the chase over the Banks on Monday at Punchestown, presumably because of the soft~heavy ground. Bizarrely, he's first reserve for a 2m flat race on the card but he'll no doubt have a spin somewhere else if that comes to nought. A safe spin will suffice for his GN prep.
I have a cunning plan. Back Minella Indo now and cash out before the race. Reasoning - This is the only Henry de Bromhead entry and should therefore be ridden by Rachael Blackmore. This should ensure that the price will drop as the once a year mob get stuck in.
I have a cunning plan. Back Minella Indo now and cash out before the race. Reasoning - This is the only Henry de Bromhead entry and should therefore be ridden by Rachael Blackmore. This should ensure that the price will drop as the once a year mob get stuck in.
Nice one @RobinKeepsBobbin but he’s actually got 3 more entered Montys Star Envoi Allen Senior Chief - taking a liking to this fella at 66s
I have a cunning plan. Back Minella Indo now and cash out before the race. Reasoning - This is the only Henry de Bromhead entry and should therefore be ridden by Rachael Blackmore. This should ensure that the price will drop as the once a year mob get stuck in.
Nice one @RobinKeepsBobbin but he’s actually got 3 more entered Montys Star Envoi Allen Senior Chief - taking a liking to this fella at 66s
Looks like i missed that. But i think Rachael will ride Minella Indo
I have a cunning plan. Back Minella Indo now and cash out before the race. Reasoning - This is the only Henry de Bromhead entry and should therefore be ridden by Rachael Blackmore. This should ensure that the price will drop as the once a year mob get stuck in.
Nice one @RobinKeepsBobbin but he’s actually got 3 more entered Montys Star Envoi Allen Senior Chief - taking a liking to this fella at 66s
Looks like i missed that. But i think Rachael will ride Minella Indo
Think you might want to take a look at Senior Chief. Closely related to 16~26f chase winner Bob Bob Bobbin
Comments
As usual it will be soft going and a number of likely or possible Aintree runners will be running; some needing to win it to get the requisite boost to their mark to make the Aintree cut but timing is an issue for those already with a OR145+ mark, being less than 3 weeks before the GN weights are framed.
It's a race that's been part of the campaign for many GN runners in recent years but has rarely (even vaguely) pointed to an Aintree winner. Just one in fact - Rule The World, 5th at Gowran and winner of the ensuing soft ground GN of 2016.
Maybe a near-miss is the secret because Longhouse Poet (2022) and Aint That A Shame (2024) both won the Thyestes and went on to make 6th at the following Aintree, but Longhouse Poet was upped 10lbs for his Gowran victory and Ain't That A Shame 8lbs. In the former's case, his pre-existing mark would have secured him a run at Aintree anyway and running there with perhaps 10-09 rather than 11-04 could have made a huge difference.
Nick Rockett is a worthy 7/2 today but he's already assured a GN berth with Irish OR152 and I would have thought, while the prize money is always nice, a competitive run but nothing spectacularly is really the order of the day.
Those that have every reason to be "all out" include Macdermott (winner of the Scottish GN) (Irish OR140). His pedigree doesn't excite my model but 3 others very much do:
- Shannon Royale (Irish OR140) 7/1
- Stuzzikini (140) 20/1 - first run since Troytown victory and test of stamina will suit
- Spanish Harlem (137) 25/1 - conditions much more suitable for him than the PP Handicap a month ago
Will be keeping a close eye on all 3 today.What do I know? Nothing spectacular was NOT the order of the day for Nick Rockett.
He impressively wins in company with Velvet Elvis, both storming well clear of the rest.
Another boost to the form of the PP Hdcp won by Perceval Legallois (Three Card Brag having already firmly franked it) and to the Bet365 of last April (i.e. Minella Cocooner).
Velvet Elvis's proximity may make the handicapper's job tricky but you'd have to suppose Nick Rockett will be around 160 for Aintree (around 11-04). He's certainly progressive but he'll likely be at least 8lbs worse off with Minella Cocooner than when 2.5L behind at Sandown over 28.5f.
Cut to 16s for the big one.
Pedigree's consistent with strong place potential (3rd~4th) but that GNOR will be crucial and there are likely to be at least a couple of stronger winning-calibre candidates by my model's reckoning.
In fact, on an initial recky, my model might be napping a home-trained runner this year.
More shortly.
Entries close tomorrow for the big one.
Time for a quick rundown on the tweaks made to my model since last April, which has now picked 4 of the last 6 GN winners (to my eternal annoyance I thought Tiger too short to back in 2018 and 2019).
It seems to be on the way to regaining something like its pre-2013 form, when it had winner and/or 2nd in all 7 GNs 2006~12 but it's clearly still well short of that and there are always refinements to be made and this year's been no exception.
Aside from recalibrating the "Days Since Run" stat (2nd, 3rd and 4th last April all breaking a long-standing stat, with the XC abandonment), the main focus again has been on pedigrees and I've done a lot of drilling down into those of all 427 runners since 2013, covering some hitherto unexplored facets and yielding some interesting new angles - particularly regarding the sire-line and maternal family, including the mitochondrial DNA of runners.
Now don't doze off, it's a good one because mitochondria are the 'power plants' of cells of all mammals and inside each is a single chromosome inherited only from the mother. They are therefore "non-recombinant" i.e. they tend to be stable over even thousands of years.
It's generally considered that racehorses derive their stamina principally from their damside (mother) and a key factor may well be the type of mitochondrial DNA ("haplotype") that's inherited. If so, then we may get a clue as to a runner's potential over a marathon trip from the specific female family to which it belongs (there are around 100 different such families) and more specifically the mtDNA type ("haplotype") it's inherited (there are around 30 different haplotypes, reflecting differing ancient sources of DNA of the modern thoroughbred).
And, while there are obviously other factors of significance, it follows that blood-relations (even distant ones) that were stars over extended trips, and even those from other families that share the same mtDNA, can be a significant pointer to GN success.
So, are there statistically meaningful + or - correlations between haplotype and GN success?
From my research, the answer is yes and, what's more, that correlation altered significantly with the change in character of the GN after 2012.
In the 10 GNs 2003~12, runners with the mtDNA "haplotype" L2b1a materially punched above their weight - contributing 7% of fields but 29% (5 of 17) winners or <5L near-missers (Montys Pass, Clan Royal, King Johns Castle, Ballabriggs and Seabass).
BUT in the 11 GNs since 2013, this haplotype has been represented by 23 runners (5.4%) but has drawn a TOTAL blank, not just with winners but with all 55 frame-makers (1~5). If there no correlation, according to random distribution you’d expect them to have produced 3 frame-makers over those 11 years. In actuality, not a sausage.
Conversely, those with the mtDNA haplotype (N2a), which had contributed just 2 of 75 (<3%) frame-makers since 1998 (Slim Pickings and Big Fella Thanks), have been the material outperformers in "modern" GNs; 11.9% of runners since 2013 contributing 4 winners (36%) - Rule The World, One For Arthur, Minella Times and I Am Maximus - and another 6 frame-makers (18%). So, in terms of winning, these runners have been outperforming their representation by 200% and frame-making by 50%.
Of course, there are 2 dozen other stats that my model uses when running its slide rule over runners' CVs and pedigrees but the mtDNA stat is of particular significance (positively and negatively) to a couple of this year's GN debutants and leading fancies.
If this were a pre-2013 GN, Midlands National winner Beauport (33/1) could well have been one on my shortlist but, among other things, he's a representative of the now-underperforming L2b1a haplotype, meaning that, in 2025, my model rates him at best a minor place candidate.
Conversely, one it rates strongly as Winning Calibre, that has the outperforming N2a mtDNA and that's likely to appear on my betting slip, is:
KANDOO KID (25/1) - Paul Nicholls
- Won over the furthest trip to date - November's 26f Coral Gold Cup [aka Hennessy] with 11-05 off OR145 on seasonal bow (form franked by 3rd and 5th; KK's RPR for that run being upped 2lbs to 157 in the process). Unexposed at >26f but so too was Many Clouds, the last Hennessy and GN double-doer.- OR upped to 152 and he'll likely carry a very winnable-with weight (around 10-10)
- Has form over the GN fences (close 3rd in last year's Topham)
- A 9yo in his 2nd season chasing - 27% of GN runners since 2013 have been 1st or 2nd season chasers and have contributed 9 of the 11 winners (82%)
- Made the frame in 7 of 8 chases (2 wins, 2 near-misses)
- His pedigree overall ranks only just inferior to I Am Maximus; comparable to the likes of Rule The World, One For Arthur, Minella Times and Corach Rambler - 5 horses with pedigrees of that calibre have run 8 times in the last 11 GNs and won 4 of them (only Lifetime Ambition ranked among them and failed [URd when badly hampered at the 9th in the mayhem of 2023]). KK is closely related to Politilogue but, from a GN perspective, his pedigree strengths are:
- an array of Damsires 1~3, all of whom were not only Group 1 winners but damsires of top stayers: damsire Muhtathir also damsired a G1 Prix Cadran (20f) winner; DS2 the top-stayer Turgeon is damsire of GN close 2nd Vaniller and a top French stayer (Shannon Rock - the "Durham Edition" of Auteil's G1 Grande Steeple-Chase de Paris over 30f); and DS3 Le Glorieux damsired the great staying hurdler Big Bucks and a 4m winner over fences.
- though distantly related, he's from the family of GN winner Rule The World and 5th Shutthefrontdoor. Notably that makes him a representative of the out-performing N2a mtDNA haplotype.
- sire Kapgarde has fathered just 2 GN runners to date - Ultragold (another that loved the fences but was short of damside stamina) and the luckless Lifetime Ambition, but he sired a high class winner of the 30f Grande Steeple-Chase de Paris. Interestingly, his progeny have their best records at the Newbury November meeting (an impressive 26.7% win record from 30 runners) and at the Aintree Festival (25% from 40 runners). By comparison, at the Cheltenham Festival his offspring have just 2 wins (both A Plus Tard) from 69 runs (2.9%). This may indicate that Kapgarde's progeny have a marked preference for flat, left handed tracks. KK himself is 212231 at Newbury and Aintree.
- His Hennessy win was his first run since wind surgery (officially his 3rd such surgery, though Nicholls tends to take a pre-emptive approach) and was evidence that he goes well fresh. Hasn't run since but hopefully will have a prep prior to 5 April because, stats-wise, less than 3 runs in the season isn't ideal. Though Pleasant Company and Rathvinden near-missed after just 2 and 1 runs respectively, even Rathvinden's solitary run was in the sweet spot (42 days prior). Going to Aintree without a run this calendar year wouldn't jive with winning a GN (all 19 winners and near-missers since 2013 have had a run 84 days or less beforehand (mid-Jan onwards).Of other possible GN debutants from the leading fancies in the market (out to 40/1), the next highest rated by my model is currently:
MINELLA COCOONER (25/1) - Willie Mullins
- 2 runs at 3.5m+ last spring produced a 4L 3rd under topweight in the Irish GN (OR148) on Heavy, followed up 26 days later by a strong-finishing win in the Bet365 (aka "Whitbread") at Sandown (OR151) on Good (giving 4lbs to Nick Rockett, 2.5L behind - MC could well be receiving weight from him at Aintree). Nick Rockett and 4th place Certainly Red both franked the form with wins off higher marks.
- Though a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, he's been overmatched exclusively in Grade 1 chase company over 20~24f this season; possibly to elicit an ease in rating (duly dropped 2lbs to Irish OR156). Entered in Saturday's PP's Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown (66/1) possibly to stress his limitations ahead of the framing of the GN weights. But I expect him, alongside stablemates, to line up and be fully charged for a strong show in the Bobbyjo Chase in a month's time.
- He does need a quality run, if not on Saturday then in his final prep, wherever that is, and ideally to notch a new RPR-high, post-weights. He'll surely be allotted a GNOR at a premium to his Irish mark but on his current best form, particularly as a 3rd season chaser, a GNOR156 (c. 11-00) is his maximum to have a strong winning chance, by the model's calculations.
- Pedigree ticks a lot of boxes, the principal stallions in his breeding having major GN success as sires:
Of course, once the entries and weights (11 Feb) are out, there could be other GN debutants flashing brightly on my model's radar screen but if MC puts in strong post-weights' run, he'll likely be carrying a couple of my shillings.
Returning Runners of Possible Interest:
I AM MAXIMUS (12/1)
As noted last year, he has an immensely strong pedigree for a modern GN, matched only by Tiger Roll's since 2013. That's a constant, obviously, but is only half the equation. Minella Times also had a strong GN pedigree but (as used to be generally so) one GN win effectively put an end to his potency on the track - evident in his poor subsequent campaign. With a PU in his only outing, Max has to show he retains his potency.
He's also entered for Saturday's Irish Gold Cup (50/1), but the key test will likely be in the Bobbyjo in a month's time, which he won impressively last year. He needs to at least approximate that form to be backable at Aintree. One to watch closely.
GALVIN (40/1)
Of the frame-makers last April, his keeping-on 8.5L 4th was arguably as impressive a run as the winner's, coming on ground that greatly favoured I Am Maximus. He received 4lbs that day from the winner but will likely be in receipt of as much as a stone this April.
His only run since was October’s near-miss in the US "Grand National" (a G1 21f hurdle) at Far Hills - too short a trip nowadays for this 11 yo. Not seen since (hopefully nothing amiss but being lightly-campaigned avoiding deep ground), if he gets his preferred decent surface in April, he's not too old to be a force and even a "3rd time lucky" winner (no horse has done this since at least 1988).
A safe spin somewhere post-weights and he'll very likely be appearing on my betting slip.
DELTA WORK (40/1)
At 12 years old, unless it were to come up deep ground, his winning chance has likely gone.
Not since State Of Play (434, 2009~11 as a 9~11yo) has a horse placed 3 times in a GN but Delta Work would be a strong candidate to do so on Soft or Heavy.
Pedigree-wise, of those shortest in the betting currently, though they may have minor place potential, my model's NOT keen as Winning or Strong Place candidates on:
Grand National 2025 entries
Apple Away
Appreciate It
Beauport
Bravemansgame
Broadway Boy
Bronn
Busselton
Capodanno
Celebre D’Allen
Chantry House
Chemical Energy
Coko Beach
Conflated
Copperhead
Cruz Control
Delta Work
Desertmore House
Duffle Coat
Envoi Allen
Escaria Ten
Fakir D’Oudairies
Famous Bridge
Fantastic Lady
Farouk D’Alene
Favori De Champdou
Fil Dor
Fontaine Collonges
French Dynamite
Galvin
Gentlemansgame
Gericault Roque
Gerri Colombe
Gevrey
Git Maker
Grangeclare West
Hewick
Hitman
Horantzau D’Airy
Hyland
I Am Maximus
Idas Boy
Inothewayurthinkin
Intense Raffles
Iroko
Kandoo Kid
King Turgeon
L’Homme Presse
La Renommee
Limerick Lace
Macdermott
Malina Girl
Meetingofthewaters
Minella Cocooner
Minella Crooner
Minella Drama
Minella Indo
Mister Coffey
Monbeg Genius
Monty’s Star
Motu Fareone
Mr Incredible
Mr Vango
Nick Rockett
Pats Fancy
Perceval Legallois
Pinkerton
Placenet
Quick Wave
Richmond Lake
Roi Mage
Royale Pagaille
Senior Chief
Shakem Up’Arry
Spanish Harlem
Stay Away Fay
Stumptown
Stuzzikini
Surrey Quest
The Goffer
The Real Whacker
Three Card Brag
Threeunderthrufive
Trelawne
Twig
Vanillier
Velvet Elvis
Where It All Began
Yeah Man
Your Own Story
Zanahiyr
Mr Incredible !!!!!
He’ll make the cut unless the handicapper pulls a fast one.
I’ve got nothing against the owners for taking him on but, with only 34 max and given his history, it can’t be right for him to get a berth in place of a genuine runner.
Not unreasonable to let Sandy and the new owners try to run him in the Roland Meyrick (change of yard/scenery might have produced a change) but he didn't even deign to run at all there.
I know the safety thing is overdone these days - it's a dangerous sport FFS - BUT imagine the consequences if he plants or ducks out at a fence and causes mayhem or worse.
I'd be very surprised if they don't find a way to exclude him.
At the very least, they should require a demonstration beforehand of a willingness to race IMHO.
Though both stormed clear of the rest, I thought the proximity of Velvet Elvis (more exposed than NR), might pose a teaser.
RPR rated the win just 158 but the Irish handicapper's more impressed than even I thought he might be and upped him 9lbs to OR161.
If the British handicapper follows up, he could be on a very challenging GNOR162 (maybe 11-06).
The highest winning GNOR since 2013 was Many Clouds' GNOR160, and he ran in the times of handicap-compression (ordinarily rated 165).
I didn't see the last Cheltenham but judging by the Racing Post description it was a bit of a mess and could have placed better...
Towards rear, not fluent and jockey lost iron briefly 3 out, headway 2 out, went fourth before last where not fluent, kept on (An inquiry was held into the running and riding of gelding, jockey stated that his instructions were to sit midfield and to try and get the gelding jumping, having felt he lost his confidence after failing in his previous run at Ascot, adding that he had formed this opinion having schooled the gelding at home, he reported that he made a mistake at the third last fence, causing him to lose his left iron, and having regained his stirrup found himself stuck to the inside, leaving him unable to improve his position until after the second last fence, he continued to add he felt in top gear throughout the race and that the gelding's jumping had suffered late on as a result, leading him to jumping the last fence slowly, he finished by stating that when taking all of the above into account, he felt that his hands and heels riding up the straight led to him obtaining the best possible placing)
That seemed to put her off jumping-wise but it's to her credit that she battled on and finished 10th 30L - highly creditable considering she had only 3 behind her at 2nd Canal Turn.
By the 2nd last she was coming on strongly (at the rear of the pack, about 8L off the lead) but it's difficult to say she didn't get home, when she'd made up so much ground.
Bear in mind she was a 7yo, she could well improve on that a year on, though her Irish OR is now +4lbs on her GNOR that day (she was well-in, having won the Mares Grade 2 at Cheltenham).
As you probably know, she's a full sister to Inothewayurthinkin, who's also been entered though was said not to be aimed at the race.
Having extended the Pedigree component of my model, form a purely pedigree perspective, relatively she's lost ground on others in the model's ratings, but still ranks (as does Inothewayurthinkin, of course) as a potential frame-maker but short of Winning Calibre.
But there's a lot to like about her attitude and I think she gets the trip.
If I weren't pathetically limited by Paddy Power, I'd be taking their 100/1 as a value each way.
There's a lot of positive vibes about Iroko and he's a quality chaser, obviously.
But plenty of quality chasers have found the GN a test too far.
The Pedigree component of my model (in which I've got a fair amount of confidence, as it endorsed 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th as Winning or Near-Missing Calibre last year - the CV stat-score was awry for 2nd and 4th) I use as a pre-screen, so that I quickly focus on those with Winning or Near-Missing Calibre breeding.
Obviously it's not infallible, either way, but by virtue of Iroko's pedigree, my model rates him (in a field of typical quality) as having Place Potential at best (probably 3rd~5th) and at least 10L behind the winner.
Specifically, his sire Cokoriko doesn't fit the ideal; damsire Martaline (sire of Vanillier) is neutral; his 3rd damsire is interesting - Signani, also 3rd damsire of GN stalwart Saint Are, delivers some nice exposure to the stamina-at-speed influence Wild Risk; and he's linebred to Mill Reef (as was One For Arthur and Balko Des Flos). These are good foundations to indicate he can be there or thereabouts but there's nothing extra that puts him on a par with former winners and near-missers; for example, none of the sire or first 3 damsires are either G1 winners or producers of G1 winners.
There are several with superior pedigrees already identified by the model - not surprisingly, I Am Maximus, Delta Work and Galvin but also Kandoo Kid (the strongest bar Max) and Minella Cocooner.
And Nick Rockett's is marginally superior though, as noted, he'll have plenty on his back (probably too much).
There could be others that I haven't put the slide rule over yet and, in any event, pedigree is only half the equation.
If those 5 don't also have the requisite CV stat-score and GNOR to go with it, the pedigree promise counts for nothing.
So, I've got a bit of work to do, and so have all the runners of course, but I'd be surprised if there aren't 4 or 5 that my model rates higher than Iroko come the day.
Happy to give you a specific analysis including his CV stat profile after the weights are out.
From these 90 entries, ranking them at their current ORs, #53 would also be OR146.
Vanillier's dropped to 144 but could get a nudge up when the GN weights are framed.
Sure do @BerkshireBob
https://forum.charltonlife.com/discussion/99222/cheltenham-festival-2025
I Am Maximus, Delta Work and Galvin - yes, and I hope it rains again!
Of particular interest for my model, as already noted, are I Am Maximus and Minella Cocooner. Neither are likely to trouble the best in the field but travelling well and remaining competitive until the last 4 furlongs is important, especially for Max. A post-GN weights strong run, probably in the Bobbyjo at the end of Feb, is what the doctor's ordering for both.
Others with GN entries have pedigrees short of Winning Calibre but with varying degrees of place potential:
He's 11 in fact.
Very pleased to see he's entered for a spin soon.
3 Feb at Punchestown - either the XC or a 2m chase, in which Stuzzikini also has an entry (a final chance to get his OR140 up to GN standard).
Coko Beach, Chemical Energy, Conflated, Delta Work, Galvin, Gevrey and The Goffer all entered and possibles for Aintree.
Perhaps encouraged by the success of the 2nd, 3rd and 4th home last April whose Festival XC engagement was abandoned, especially given just a 3 week gap between Cheltenham and Aintree this year.
This race is 61 days prior to the GN. Delta Work and Galvin both ran after a 62 day gap last April.
Don't want too bold a show with the GN weights around the corner.
From other yards, Roi Mage, Vanillier and Bronn also have GN entries.
Grangeclare West pushed him to within 5L and has been shortened for the GN to 20s. 4th and 5th Inothewayurthinkin (7L) and Montys Star (8L) also cut to 12s and 25s respectively.
I Am Maximus ran much better than at Christmas, though as usual jumped to the left at many of the fences while Minella Cocooner displayed once again (lest there were any doubt) that he's not a top drawer Grade 1 chaser though, as in the Savills Chase, travelled and jumped nicely before being found out for lack of gears.
Conflated brought up the rear.
I would say mission accomplished for Max and Minella Cocooner and their near-term target is now presumably the Bobbyjo at the end of the month. If Willie's succeeded in nudging the odd lb off the GNOR of one or both (unlikely in the case of Max), so much the better.
Meanwhile, PP Chase winner Perceval Legallois took the 3m hurdle impressively and is now likely heading for the GN. Duly cut to 20s.
Galvin has been scratched from the chase over the Banks on Monday at Punchestown, presumably because of the soft~heavy ground.
Bizarrely, he's first reserve for a 2m flat race on the card but he'll no doubt have a spin somewhere else if that comes to nought.
A safe spin will suffice for his GN prep.
Shaping up very interestingly.
Montys Star
Envoi Allen
Senior Chief - taking a liking to this fella at 66s
Closely related to 16~26f chase winner Bob Bob Bobbin