Running away with most goals in the last 15 (and joint 3rd least). It’s an obvious game plan and long may it continue.
What would people put this down to? Is it our game plan? Are we just fitter than other sides? Is it because we don't have many injuries that we now have much better subs coming off the bench? Can't be many teams at this level who have subs like Leaburn and Aneke.
It was also a trait of Jones Luton teams. Fittest team, keep it tight if you can’t score, overpower teams in the last 15.
Barnsley concede the most in the last 15 (and did it again yesterday) so keep it tight and batter them from 76 minutes onwards.
We’ve technically got the hardest run in of the teams competing for play offs and promotion. I think 2nd is going to be unlikely, unless we beat Stockport, Wycombe, Wrexham and Huddersfield. If we can get in the top 4 and get a home second leg then we will have a good chance of Wembley
We’ve technically got the hardest run in of the teams competing for play offs and promotion. I think 2nd is going to be unlikely, unless we beat Stockport, Wycombe, Wrexham and Huddersfield. If we can get in the top 4 and get a home second leg then we will have a good chance of Wembley
One game at a time. Just keeping the winning momentum going and let the others worry about us.
We’ve technically got the hardest run in of the teams competing for play offs and promotion. I think 2nd is going to be unlikely, unless we beat Stockport, Wycombe, Wrexham and Huddersfield. If we can get in the top 4 and get a home second leg then we will have a good chance of Wembley
I think the fact we are playing rivals works in our favour … if we win, the momentum is definitely ours … it’s in our hands not others
Running away with most goals in the last 15 (and joint 3rd least). It’s an obvious game plan and long may it continue.
What would people put this down to? Is it our game plan? Are we just fitter than other sides? Is it because we don't have many injuries that we now have much better subs coming off the bench? Can't be many teams at this level who have subs like Leaburn and Aneke.
All of the above I think. Maybe not game plan but definitely fitness and the quality of our subs
That "18-5" stat does two things. It makes us believe as a team (and the fans who recognise the importance of urging the players on in added time) that it is only too late for us to score once the final whistle goes. And we shouldn't kid ourselves that the opposition analysts don't know that too but the adverse effect of that is that it can make them withdraw and end up constantly defending the box. Those two late goals yesterday are a testament to that.
I was actually just thinking the opposite and that our run in looks quite good after this week - 8 out of the 11 are very winnable, with the 3 tougher ones being Huddersfield, Wrexham and Wycombe.
If we get another 4 points from the next two, then I’d expect us to make the playoffs.
i think the way we went for the second goal yesterday after equalising, rather than shutting up shop, gives an indication that we have one eye on second spot - NJ won't admit that publicly but the way we approach barnsley and stockport will also be telling - draws are no good if we are hunting down second spot
I just checked the odds and we're a best price 20/1 to finish in the top 2.
its an outside shot of course but i don't think its completely out of the question and if we need to gamble in games to go for it, i think we should - straight up or a 1 in 4 chance ? i think its worth the gamble even if it jeopardises being in the play offs
I think it makes sense to target Wrexham and Wycombe rather than focus on teams around us. I think that takes the pressure off a bit.
Wrexham have five at home* and eight away.
One against us
On current form, Wrexham are, by no means invincible, home or away.
They've
failed to win 8 of their last 14 matches taken two points from their last four home matches kept three clean sheets in their last 15 matches not scored more than two goals in a game since the 23rd November
Opta says 44.28% chance of finishing in the top 6. I would guess a win on Saturday would flip us above orient and give us an above 50% chance
After yesterday
Charlton 44.28% -> 57.30% (autos 1.02% -> 2.48%)
Orient 53.56% -> 28.48%
71.6% for Wycombe to get automatic promotion feels very high, but partially because the nearest challengers in the table at the moment Wrexham aren't in top form either.
Opta says 44.28% chance of finishing in the top 6. I would guess a win on Saturday would flip us above orient and give us an above 50% chance
After yesterday
Charlton 44.28% -> 57.30% (autos 1.02% -> 2.48%)
Orient 53.56% -> 28.48%
So, if I'm interpreting this correctly, we have a 57.3% chance of play offs - assume our chances of play off success are 25% once we're there means that, as of today, we have a 14.3% chance of getting promoted via play offs plus 2.5% chance of automatics. Therefore we currently have a 16.8% chance of promotion.
Opta says 44.28% chance of finishing in the top 6. I would guess a win on Saturday would flip us above orient and give us an above 50% chance
After yesterday
Charlton 44.28% -> 57.30% (autos 1.02% -> 2.48%)
Orient 53.56% -> 28.48%
So, if I'm interpreting this correctly, we have a 57.3% chance of play offs - assume our chances of play off success are 25% once we're there means that, as of today, we have a 14.3% chance of getting promoted via play offs plus 2.5% chance of automatics. Therefore we currently have a 16.8% chance of promotion.
Opta have updated their stats since the last chart posted and it would indicate that we now have a 17.86% chance of promotion. If this is to be believed bookmaker odds of 20/1 look very generous.
I think it makes sense to target Wrexham and Wycombe rather than focus on teams around us. I think that takes the pressure off a bit.
Wrexham have five at home* and eight away.
One against us
On current form, Wrexham are, by no means invincible, home or away.
They've
failed to win 8 of their last 14 matches taken two points from their last four home matches kept three clean sheets in their last 15 matches not scored more than two goals in a game since the 23rd November
Watching their weekend highlights further enforced my beliefs OConnell is a very poor error prone player. I recall a few people here were sorry to see him go. I certainly wasn’t.
The fact he had Lavelle next to him ( arguably the only league 1 defender slower than him ) probably made him look better than he is.
With the remaining fixtures, as they are, if we are to have any chance of making the Play Offs, we have to somehow turn the Valley into a fortress. We could not ask for an easier set of remaining home fixtures but when you've only scored 14 in 12 there, you do become wholly reliant on keeping clean sheets. If Rotherham were to just draw their game in hand then they will leapfrog Lincoln meaning that all bar two of our games at home are against teams in the bottom half of the table:
Huddersfield (4) - now 5th Barnsley (5) - now 10th Lincoln (12) - now 13th Exeter (14) Won Stevenage (16) Won Wigan (17) - now 15th Bristol Rovers (18) Won Peterborough (19) Won Northampton (20) - now 18th Shrewsbury (22) Won Burton (23) - now 21st
9 home wins plus 2 draws at home and 1.3 points a game when away (our current average) would take us to 79 points - almost certainly enough to get us into the Play Offs given the even level of ability of the teams in the division.
Well we're 8 games on since I wrote the above. We are turning the Valley into a "fortress" (we've won 5/5 at home and conceded just a single goal, a dubious penalty at that, in those games) and are up with that 1.3 points per game away (4 points from our 3 away). So, we need to win 4 and draw 2 at home and pick up 9 points from our 7 away games to reach that 79 points which would now almost certainly be enough to make the play offs (for 27 of the last 32 seasons, 79 points was sufficient but, more to the point, so many of the teams around us are struggling for any consistency).
Better results than that and who knows? It's the hope that kills us supporters especially the long suffering ones eh @lewiscoaches !!!
Opta says 44.28% chance of finishing in the top 6. I would guess a win on Saturday would flip us above orient and give us an above 50% chance
After yesterday
Charlton 44.28% -> 57.30% (autos 1.02% -> 2.48%)
Orient 53.56% -> 28.48%
So, if I'm interpreting this correctly, we have a 57.3% chance of play offs - assume our chances of play off success are 25% once we're there means that, as of today, we have a 14.3% chance of getting promoted via play offs plus 2.5% chance of automatics. Therefore we currently have a 16.8% chance of promotion.
Opta have updated their stats since the last chart posted and it would indicate that we now have a 17.86% chance of promotion. If this is to be believed bookmaker odds of 20/1 look very generous.
The 20/1 odds were for a top 2 finish not promotion.
Comments
Huddersfield, Bolton, Charlton, Reading, Wycombe, Stockport
They've
failed to win 8 of their last 14 matches
taken two points from their last four home matches
kept three clean sheets in their last 15 matches
not scored more than two goals in a game since the 23rd November
Charlton 44.28% -> 57.30% (autos 1.02% -> 2.48%)
4/1 for promotion
16/1 for automatic, i.e. finish 2nd
1/2 to finish top 6
Better results than that and who knows? It's the hope that kills us supporters especially the long suffering ones eh @lewiscoaches !!!
The 20/1 odds were for a top 2 finish not promotion.