Peterborough, Huddersfield, Wycombe and Wrexham are very loseable games, realistically they are 4 games which we can't afford to drop any points in.
So were Leyton Orient, Barnsley and Stockport though
I think the last eleven games are all loseable matches if we don't approach them the right way, especially Burton on the last day of the season if they're in with a chance of survival (Its Rochdale in 2017/18 all over again), I still think we can afford to draw two, maybe three games and that's it, if we want second.
Absolutely, but none of those draws can come from teams around us in this final run. Orient were already 2 games into a losing run when we played them and Stockport we dropped points to.
We need Wycombe and Wrexham to lose 2 games each really, luckily we can be one of those teams to each, but it feels like a big ask atm.
Wrexham vs Stockport on Saturday we need to see Wrexham picking up no more than a point and its on.
One game at a time, but it's out of our hands for now.
I'd agree with that. I'm sure there will be more twists and turns to come but with the run in Wrexham have, i think if they beat Stockport then for me they're big favourites to get 2nd.
Still think if we finish above Stockport that means we will get 2nd.
We all want 2nd but with both Wrexham and Wycombe having 5 points on CAFC and with a better GD I'm surprised you think that we can pull back 6 points on both. I can't see us winning at both Wrexham and Wycombe which we will need to do in the last 9 games. WW were mediocre last night yet still won 3-1 at Rotherham. Wrexham have been on this crest of a wave for the last 4 years and in this bang average 3rd tier division they could carry on their cinematic journey. Plus Stockport in the mix for 2nd.
Still think if we finish above Stockport that means we will get 2nd.
We all want 2nd but with both Wrexham and Wycombe having 5 points on CAFC and with a better GD I'm surprised you think that we can pull back 6 points on both. I can't see us winning at both Wrexham and Wycombe which we will need to do in the last 9 games. WW were mediocre last night yet still won 3-1 at Rotherham. Wrexham have been on this crest of a wave for the last 4 years and in this bang average 3rd tier division they could carry on their cinematic journey. Plus Stockport in the mix for 2nd.
No one said it will be easy but there is a slight chance we can pull it off. Yes we'd have to win at both Wycombe and Wrexham but if we are going to do it why not do it the hard way.
In my opinion it's a very long shot. If we fall short at least make sure we finish 3rd or 4th for second leg home advantage in the play offs.
People are overthinking this yet again. All we have to do is continue with what we’ve been doing and that is to go out and win each game as it comes around. We might not necessarily win every one of them but that’s OK, there is leeway for that courtesy of the fact that the other teams will drop points, though I think this Charlton team has it in them to actually win all 9 of the remaining games.
People are overthinking this yet again. All we have to do is continue with what we’ve been doing and that is to go out and win each game as it comes around. We might not necessarily win every one of them but that’s OK, there is leeway for that courtesy of the fact that the other teams will drop points, though I think this Charlton team has it in them to actually win all 9 of the remaining games.
Anything is possible but we haven't even won as many as 4 in a row all season, so to suddenly win 11 is unlikely.
9 games to go, if we somehow win 8 of them and beat both our rivals along the way, we'd be pretty hard done by to get 90 points and not get automatics.
Still think we finish below Wrexham and above Wycombe
The home leg being the second one ought to be beneficial, but then in 2019 we won in Doncaster and lost at home, resulting in penalties.
Being at home definitely helped us in the shootout but then Liverpool lost their shootout at home last week.
Something that I have always though was strange is that if a game goes into extra time then the home team has an advantage, which is not the same for the away team who had home advantage in the 1st leg. Nothing that can be done about it unless the game goes straight to pens.....but it has always made me think that this is another advantage of playing the 2nd leg at home - an extra 30 mins on front of the home fans.
It's an advantage you get for coming 3rd or 4th in the playoffs rather than 6th or 5th
But what about any other 2-legged tie ? FA Cup or Champions League matches for example. They aren't "position" based. In fact, the FA Cup is even more unfair. Games this season that have gone straight to Extra Time & then penalties have massively favoured the home team, which doesn't help a small team facing a much larger one - say Lincoln away to Liverpool.
I know nothing can be done about and I'm just musing that having extra time after a 2--leg tie massively favours the team at home in the 2nd leg.
A team that finishes 3rd should have an advantage over a team that finishes 6th - and the same for 4th over 5th.
The Champions League is to an extent position based - teams that do well in the group stage get home advantage second leg in the round of 16.
I'm not sure it massively favours the home team anyway in the second leg if it goes to extra time - the pressure on the home team from the home crowd having failed to take venue advantage levels the paying field to a large degree. I agree the FA Cup is unfair to the smaller team drawn away and was never in favour of scrapping replays (at least one).
I quite like a playoff structure that rewards clubs that do finish 3rd and 4th over 5th and 6th. If we look. for example, at the Championship, we have a situation where Burnley in third are 21 points ahead of the side in 6th, WBA - the former has lost just 2 games all season whereas Coventry, in fifth, have lost 13 matches.
The one, specifically, that I think works better is:
3rd plays 4th and the winner automatically goes into the play off final. The loser of that tie then plays the winner of 5th versus 6th to determine who also reaches the final.
Does anyone know why the old play off format was scrapped?
3rd, 4th and 5th from the league below plus 4th bottom from the league above.
From memory that was only used for the two seasons when they were shrinking the league from 22 to 20 (and only for div1/div2 playoffs, not the lower leagues). The alternative would have been bottom 4 down.
It's an exciting format though. I think they should reintroduce it
That’s what they use in Germany, I think.
In the two years we had it Charlton stayed up and Chelsea went down, which proves that it is a good system.
People are overthinking this yet again. All we have to do is continue with what we’ve been doing and that is to go out and win each game as it comes around. We might not necessarily win every one of them but that’s OK, there is leeway for that courtesy of the fact that the other teams will drop points, though I think this Charlton team has it in them to actually win all 9 of the remaining games.
Anything is possible but we haven't even won as many as 4 in a row all season, so to suddenly win 11 is unlikely.
Good point. I just hate the lottery of the playoffs. It’s such a shame leaving the lottery of those games and a biggun at Wembley decide the fate of our better players - Kayne, Thierry, Edwards, Coventry would surely all be hunted
I still think it'll take a 1998 finish (last 14 games, 12 wins and 1 draw) to clinch an automatic spot. We're doing brilliantly to be on that pace with the only points dropped being the draw at Stockport but we clearly have very little room for error going forward. A big worry for me is we flog our first team to death trying to get the automatic spot, fall just short and are burned out come the playoffs.
I still think it'll take a 1998 finish (last 14 games, 12 wins and 1 draw) to clinch an automatic spot. We're doing brilliantly to be on that pace with the only points dropped being the draw at Stockport but we clearly have very little room for error going forward. A big worry for me is we flog our first team to death trying to get the automatic spot, fall just short and are burned out come the playoffs.
There is going to be some surprises on the way, we may be a victim of a surprise result too, at the end of the day, we have to do our but and what happens elsewhere. The table will change, we may be 2nd in early April, we may not, If we end up 2nd at 5pm on may 3rd, that's all that matters. In a way I'm hoping it's a reverse of the championship season when we only spent two games in the bottom 3 but went down.
Continue our current form and we will get enough for second if you look at the points gained on Wrexham and Wycombe over the the last 9/10 games. can only do what we can do.
People are overthinking this yet again. All we have to do is continue with what we’ve been doing and that is to go out and win each game as it comes around. We might not necessarily win every one of them but that’s OK, there is leeway for that courtesy of the fact that the other teams will drop points, though I think this Charlton team has it in them to actually win all 9 of the remaining games.
I agree - some people are definitely overthinking this. It's one game at a time and see where we are. That's all.
Personally I doubt if we'll win all 9 remaining games. But then, nor will our promotion rivals.
If one of them does - then they've bleddy well earned promotion!
There is going to be some surprises on the way, we may be a victim of a surprise result too, at the end of the day, we have to do our but and what happens elsewhere. The table will change, we may be 2nd in early April, we may not, If we end up 2nd at 5pm on may 3rd, that's all that matters. In a way I'm hoping it's a reverse of the championship season when we only spent two games in the bottom 3 but went down.
It does seem that some people give the impression they almost need to have it sorted and promotion clinched right now. That's not the way it works in football, ever!
The finishing line is only after every team has played 46 games. That's it, that's all that counts!
All the rest is merely conjecture and anticipation. And the thrill of the chase!
Would people take the current table as the final table if offered? I just about wouldn't, but the fact Wrexham aren't automatically promoted and Bolton aren't in the playoffs would sorely tempt me
Would people take the current table as the final table if offered? I just about wouldn't, but the fact Wrexham aren't automatically promoted and Bolton aren't in the playoffs would sorely tempt me
I think there's more chance of us failing to make the playoffs than there is of us clinching second place (that's my opinion I'm not sure about her current odds). On that basis I'd take it if offered.
Would people take the current table as the final table if offered? I just about wouldn't, but the fact Wrexham aren't automatically promoted and Bolton aren't in the playoffs would sorely tempt me
I think there's more chance of us failing to make the playoffs than there is of us clinching second place (that's my opinion I'm not sure about her current odds). On that basis I'd take it if offered.
The chance of automatic promotion comes around less often than you do, Santa, so I'll say "thanks, but no thanks" to Leuth's offer. It's a satsuma and a lump of coal compared to the delights we could potentially unwrap. (Insert your own present wish list here.) 😀
Would people take the current table as the final table if offered? I just about wouldn't, but the fact Wrexham aren't automatically promoted and Bolton aren't in the playoffs would sorely tempt me
No, absolutely not. We've an outside chance of automatic promotion.
Why surrender that chance of next season definitely playing in the Championship, compared with the soft option lottery of a 25% chance of being promoted through the playoffs.
Would people take the current table as the final table if offered? I just about wouldn't, but the fact Wrexham aren't automatically promoted and Bolton aren't in the playoffs would sorely tempt me
No, absolutely not. We've an outside chance of automatic promotion.
Why surrender that chance of next season definitely playing in the Championship, compared with the soft option lottery of a 25% chance of being promoted through the playoffs.
I was going to say yes, but you've managed to change my mind. 👍
Why do people keep saying we are 5 points behind Wrexham and Wycombe? It's 2 and goal difference as we will have to beat them both to have a chance. That's the only way of looking at imo. Very unlikely they both lose more than 2, so we have to hope someone does us a favour a few times and we need to win 7 more games at least including those two.
I think it's a bit unlikely now. Had we beat Stockport and those two drew, I could see it, just think we will run out of the games.
Either way, I can't wait for the prospect of play-offs if we can manage that. Usually a dead season long before now.
Why do people keep saying we are 5 points behind Wrexham and Wycombe? It's 2 and goal difference as we will have to beat them both to have a chance. That's the only way of looking at imo. Very unlikely they both lose more than 2, so we have to hope someone does us a favour a few times and we need to win 7 more games at least including those two.
I think it's a bit unlikely now. Had we beat Stockport and those two drew, I could see it, just think we will run out of the games.
Either way, I can't wait for the prospect of play-offs if we can manage that. Usually a dead season long before now.
That is how I look at it. Get within 2 points of Wycombe and 3 of Wrexham and it is our hands. That doesn't mean we will take it but it is possible.
The reality is that all of us will drop points, and not necessarily in the games you'd expect to drop points in . One Saturday it's wrist slitting time because you fail to beat Burton, the next it's all joy again because your rivals lost to Lincoln.
At least one of Wrexham or Stockport will drop points.
At least one of Wycombe or Charlton will drop points.
At least one of Wrexham or Charlton will drop points.
At least one of Wycombe or Stockport will drop points.
And each of us have 7 other games we're all more than capable of losing. 3 of the 4 of us have lost at least one game to a side currently in the bottom 4 (Wycombe only one that haven't) so just need to focus on the next game, try and win it and move on. With 4 teams in the race it would surprise me if anyone had it wrapped up with more than a game to go.
People are overthinking this yet again. All we have to do is continue with what we’ve been doing and that is to go out and win each game as it comes around. We might not necessarily win every one of them but that’s OK, there is leeway for that courtesy of the fact that the other teams will drop points, though I think this Charlton team has it in them to actually win all 9 of the remaining games.
Anything is possible but we haven't even won as many as 4 in a row all season, so to suddenly win 11 is unlikely.
Good point. I just hate the lottery of the playoffs. It’s such a shame leaving the lottery of those games and a biggun at Wembley decide the fate of our better players - Kayne, Thierry, Edwards, Coventry would surely all be hunted
The play-offs have brought the most exciting times in our history, although give me a 2000 and 2012 stroll to promotion every time.
its inconcevable that Wrexham away won't me moved as SKY have to make the decision by Monday god lets hope its not a Thursday evening KO, that would be a massive blow for travelling addicks. Best - Worse case scenerio is a 12.30 KO on Saturday April 23rd horrible 3.5-4hr drive with breaks its a 7am or earlier departure. This one month rule where SKY can change fixture date needs to be amended to at least 2 months to allow fans to plan ahead for travel / hotel etc. What a shame its unlikely to be 3pm, I'm sure if were in the mix for an automatic and because its The Disney Welsh Dragons we will fill the away end but a Thursday evening that is a huge ask?
at least if trains are running ok the 8.33 gets in 11.00 with a 1/3 saver card its £53.55 other two before are 40mins slower or more changes if its Saturday 12.30 KO, I think i will aim for first one out of Euston 06.29am gets in 09.00 and see a bit of Wrexham.....lets see what SKY decide?
I really don't know where the negativity has suddenly come from on here the last few days - you all seem to be getting in your own heads! We just need to take it one game at a time - Peterboro next with a ton of away fans making noise and a couple of their better players not available, a couple of ours potentially to return to the squad, a much needed whole week of rest as opposed to the Tuesday/Saturday grind of the past few weeks. There's plenty to stay positive about!
Comments
We all want 2nd but with both Wrexham and Wycombe having 5 points on CAFC and with a better GD I'm surprised you think that we can pull back 6 points on both. I can't see us winning at both Wrexham and Wycombe which we will need to do in the last 9 games.
WW were mediocre last night yet still won 3-1 at Rotherham. Wrexham have been on this crest of a wave for the last 4 years and in this bang average 3rd tier division they could carry on their cinematic journey.
Plus Stockport in the mix for 2nd.
Still think we finish below Wrexham and above Wycombe
play offs we are pretty much assured of .
failure in the play offs is how I’m feeling this seasons story ends .
3% Top two
85% 3rd-6th
12% 7th-12th
20% play off winner
30% play off final loser
50% loser in the semis
(for the record 2019 I called a play off final penalty loss when there was plenty of the season left)
can only do what we can do.
It's one game at a time and see where we are. That's all.
Personally I doubt if we'll win all 9 remaining games.
But then, nor will our promotion rivals.
If one of them does - then they've bleddy well earned promotion!
That's not the way it works in football, ever!
The finishing line is only after every team has played 46 games.
That's it, that's all that counts!
All the rest is merely conjecture and anticipation.
And the thrill of the chase!
Why surrender that chance of next season definitely playing in the Championship, compared with the soft option lottery of a 25% chance of being promoted through the playoffs.
I think it's a bit unlikely now. Had we beat Stockport and those two drew, I could see it, just think we will run out of the games.
Either way, I can't wait for the prospect of play-offs if we can manage that. Usually a dead season long before now.
At least one of Wrexham or Stockport will drop points.
At least one of Wycombe or Charlton will drop points.
At least one of Wrexham or Charlton will drop points.
At least one of Wycombe or Stockport will drop points.
And each of us have 7 other games we're all more than capable of losing. 3 of the 4 of us have lost at least one game to a side currently in the bottom 4 (Wycombe only one that haven't) so just need to focus on the next game, try and win it and move on. With 4 teams in the race it would surprise me if anyone had it wrapped up with more than a game to go.
3 out of 3.
Something's gotta give sometime.
horrible 3.5-4hr drive with breaks its a 7am or earlier departure. This one month rule where SKY can change fixture date needs to be amended to at least 2 months to allow fans to plan ahead for travel / hotel etc. What a shame its unlikely to be 3pm, I'm sure if were in the mix for an automatic and because its The Disney Welsh Dragons we will fill the away end but a Thursday evening that is a huge ask?
with a 1/3 saver card its £53.55 other two before are 40mins slower or more changes if its Saturday 12.30 KO, I think i will aim for first one out of Euston 06.29am gets in 09.00 and see a bit of Wrexham.....lets see what SKY decide?