Personally i think Wrexham will get 2nd unless they have a major meltdown in their next 3 games against the bottom teams. I can see us and Stockport both overtaking Wycombe and Wycombe then ending up 5th. If that is the case i think i'd rather finish 4th and play Wycombe who are deflated after a bad run, than finish 3rd and face a side who've potentially squeezed into 6th on the last day after a good run of form like Blackpool.
There are scenarios where you might think, on paper, it’s better to come fourth than third. But in reality we have to try and win every match - if we succeed in doing so and that means a slightly tougher semi-final draw then so be it.
Surely it is better to finish third, you then play the sixth placed team, the second game is at home regardless of finishing third or fourth.
Personally i think Wrexham will get 2nd unless they have a major meltdown in their next 3 games against the bottom teams. I can see us and Stockport both overtaking Wycombe and Wycombe then ending up 5th. If that is the case i think i'd rather finish 4th and play Wycombe who are deflated after a bad run, than finish 3rd and face a side who've potentially squeezed into 6th on the last day after a good run of form like Blackpool.
There are scenarios where you might think, on paper, it’s better to come fourth than third. But in reality we have to try and win every match - if we succeed in doing so and that means a slightly tougher semi-final draw then so be it.
Surely it is better to finish third, you then play the sixth placed team, the second game is at home regardless of finishing third or fourth.
If we finish third and have to play a team that has been firing on all cylinders towards the end of the season and sneaks into sixth, I would prefer to finish fourth to face a fading Wycombe that finishes fifth.
Personally i think Wrexham will get 2nd unless they have a major meltdown in their next 3 games against the bottom teams. I can see us and Stockport both overtaking Wycombe and Wycombe then ending up 5th. If that is the case i think i'd rather finish 4th and play Wycombe who are deflated after a bad run, than finish 3rd and face a side who've potentially squeezed into 6th on the last day after a good run of form like Blackpool.
There are scenarios where you might think, on paper, it’s better to come fourth than third. But in reality we have to try and win every match - if we succeed in doing so and that means a slightly tougher semi-final draw then so be it.
Surely it is better to finish third, you then play the sixth placed team, the second game is at home regardless of finishing third or fourth.
If we finish third and have to play a team that has been firing on all cylinders towards the end of the season and sneaks into sixth, I would prefer to finish fourth to face a fading Wycombe that finishes fifth.
This is my thoughts exactly a team storming into 6th will be on a serious run.
although we win every remaining game I think 2nd is on.
Like a 18 year old virgin going to his first party during freshers week....I'm just delighted to be part of it.
Let's hope you don't leave the party on your own, empty handed, drunk and with a crushing sense of disappointment and what might have been if only the 'real' you had turned up earlier
Personally i think Wrexham will get 2nd unless they have a major meltdown in their next 3 games against the bottom teams. I can see us and Stockport both overtaking Wycombe and Wycombe then ending up 5th. If that is the case i think i'd rather finish 4th and play Wycombe who are deflated after a bad run, than finish 3rd and face a side who've potentially squeezed into 6th on the last day after a good run of form like Blackpool.
There are scenarios where you might think, on paper, it’s better to come fourth than third. But in reality we have to try and win every match - if we succeed in doing so and that means a slightly tougher semi-final draw then so be it.
Surely it is better to finish third, you then play the sixth placed team, the second game is at home regardless of finishing third or fourth.
If we finish third and have to play a team that has been firing on all cylinders towards the end of the season and sneaks into sixth, I would prefer to finish fourth to face a fading Wycombe that finishes fifth.
Personally i think Wrexham will get 2nd unless they have a major meltdown in their next 3 games against the bottom teams. I can see us and Stockport both overtaking Wycombe and Wycombe then ending up 5th. If that is the case i think i'd rather finish 4th and play Wycombe who are deflated after a bad run, than finish 3rd and face a side who've potentially squeezed into 6th on the last day after a good run of form like Blackpool.
There are scenarios where you might think, on paper, it’s better to come fourth than third. But in reality we have to try and win every match - if we succeed in doing so and that means a slightly tougher semi-final draw then so be it.
Surely it is better to finish third, you then play the sixth placed team, the second game is at home regardless of finishing third or fourth.
If we finish third and have to play a team that has been firing on all cylinders towards the end of the season and sneaks into sixth, I would prefer to finish fourth to face a fading Wycombe that finishes fifth.
This is my thoughts exactly a team storming into 6th will be on a serious run.
although we win every remaining game I think 2nd is on.
Isn’t the “team coming sixth will have the momentum with them” trope a bit of a myth? I thought, statistically, the team coming in sixth gets promoted the least often.
Personally i think Wrexham will get 2nd unless they have a major meltdown in their next 3 games against the bottom teams. I can see us and Stockport both overtaking Wycombe and Wycombe then ending up 5th. If that is the case i think i'd rather finish 4th and play Wycombe who are deflated after a bad run, than finish 3rd and face a side who've potentially squeezed into 6th on the last day after a good run of form like Blackpool.
It’s like nobody on here has ever watched a ‘Hollywood’ movie. Plucky little back woods teams battling against the odds to climb the football pyramid and chasing glory tend to have to do it the hard way and then get all the glory…they will divert to the play offs and Wembley. It’s more ‘box-office’ than slipping into 2nd and a basically screen time damp-squib finish. #readthescript
Can’t remember the last time we had two potentially crucial games against direct rivals next to each other and so close to the end of the season, it’s quite exciting
Like a 18 year old virgin going to his first party during freshers week....I'm just delighted to be part of it.
Let's hope you don't leave the party on your own, empty handed, drunk and with a crushing sense of disappointment and what might have been if only the 'real' you had turned up earlier
Wrexham fixtures. 78 points. 6 to go Burton Wigan Bristol Rovers Blackpool Charlton Lincoln
Wycombe fixtures. 75 points. 7 to go Reading Huddersfield Stevenage Bolton Charlton Orient Stockport
Charlton fixtures. 72 points. 6 to go Lincoln Cambridge Northampton Wycombe Wrexham Burton
Stockport fixtures. 71 points. 6 to go Exeter Rotherham Peterborough Huddersfield Lincoln Wycombe
Bolton fixtures. 63 points. 7 to go Rovers Rotherham Barnsley Wycombe Lincoln Peterborough Stevenage
Reading fixtures. 62 points 7 to go Wycombe Shrewsbury Northampton Lincoln Mansfield Rovers Barnsley
Huddersfield fixtures. 61 points. 7 to go Mansfield Wycombe Burton Cambridge Stockport Exeter Orient
Blackpool fixtures. 60 points. 6 to go Rotherham Stevenage Wrexham Wigan Birmingham Rovers
Orient fixtures. 59 points. 7 to go Wigan Mansfield Crawley Barnsley Cambridge Wycombe Huddersfield
Important context missing here though is whether games are at home or away.
For example if Wrexham had to go away to Burton and Bristol Rovers you'd say they would both be tricky games, but Wrexham play them both at home so therefore you'd expect home wins. Wrexham have lost 6 home games in 4 years.
Wrexham fixtures. 78 points. 6 to go Burton Wigan Bristol Rovers Blackpool Charlton Lincoln
Wycombe fixtures. 75 points. 7 to go Reading Huddersfield Stevenage Bolton Charlton Orient Stockport
Charlton fixtures. 72 points. 6 to go Lincoln Cambridge Northampton Wycombe Wrexham Burton
Stockport fixtures. 71 points. 6 to go Exeter Rotherham Peterborough Huddersfield Lincoln Wycombe
Bolton fixtures. 63 points. 7 to go Rovers Rotherham Barnsley Wycombe Lincoln Peterborough Stevenage
Reading fixtures. 62 points 7 to go Wycombe Shrewsbury Northampton Lincoln Mansfield Rovers Barnsley
Huddersfield fixtures. 61 points. 7 to go Mansfield Wycombe Burton Cambridge Stockport Exeter Orient
Blackpool fixtures. 60 points. 6 to go Rotherham Stevenage Wrexham Wigan Birmingham Rovers
Orient fixtures. 59 points. 7 to go Wigan Mansfield Crawley Barnsley Cambridge Wycombe Huddersfield
Important context missing here though is whether games are at home or away.
For example if Wrexham had to go away to Burton and Bristol Rovers you'd say they would both be tricky games, but Wrexham play them both at home so therefore you'd expect home wins. Wrexham have lost 6 home games in 4 years.
Wrexham fixtures. 78 points. 6 to go Burton Wigan Bristol Rovers Blackpool Charlton Lincoln
Wycombe fixtures. 75 points. 7 to go Reading Huddersfield Stevenage Bolton Charlton Orient Stockport
Charlton fixtures. 72 points. 6 to go Lincoln Cambridge Northampton Wycombe Wrexham Burton
Stockport fixtures. 71 points. 6 to go Exeter Rotherham Peterborough Huddersfield Lincoln Wycombe
Bolton fixtures. 63 points. 7 to go Rovers Rotherham Barnsley Wycombe Lincoln Peterborough Stevenage
Reading fixtures. 62 points 7 to go Wycombe Shrewsbury Northampton Lincoln Mansfield Rovers Barnsley
Huddersfield fixtures. 61 points. 7 to go Mansfield Wycombe Burton Cambridge Stockport Exeter Orient
Blackpool fixtures. 60 points. 6 to go Rotherham Stevenage Wrexham Wigan Birmingham Rovers
Orient fixtures. 59 points. 7 to go Wigan Mansfield Crawley Barnsley Cambridge Wycombe Huddersfield
Important context missing here though is whether games are at home or away.
For example if Wrexham had to go away to Burton and Bristol Rovers you'd say they would both be tricky games, but Wrexham play them both at home so therefore you'd expect home wins. Wrexham have lost 6 home games in 4 years.
Also some teams have performed very differently at home and away:
Lincoln in 12th become the first team in the top half who can't mathematically catch us.
So will they be on the beach come Saturday or will they think they might as well give it a go?
They beat Huddersfield 1-0 last night, so fully expect them to continue giving it a go.
I no longer consider beating Huddersfield an achievement in any degree.
Beating Huddersfield 4-0 the week after they scored 5 goals was a great achievement and playing good football was the catalyst for many to see that this squad which was being heavily criticised as recently as December and Peterborough away ! can actually play football and use the width of the pitch.
The significant loss to Peterborough worries me, less so when I looked at the stats and the number of shots we had etc. And less worried after the dominant win on Saturday. Tuesday wasn't an impressive performance but getting a win was - winning ugly
Wrexham fixtures. 78 points. 6 to go Burton Wigan Bristol Rovers Blackpool Charlton Lincoln
Wycombe fixtures. 75 points. 7 to go Reading Huddersfield Stevenage Bolton Charlton Orient Stockport
Charlton fixtures. 72 points. 6 to go Lincoln Cambridge Northampton Wycombe Wrexham Burton
Stockport fixtures. 71 points. 6 to go Exeter Rotherham Peterborough Huddersfield Lincoln Wycombe
Bolton fixtures. 63 points. 7 to go Rovers Rotherham Barnsley Wycombe Lincoln Peterborough Stevenage
Reading fixtures. 62 points 7 to go Wycombe Shrewsbury Northampton Lincoln Mansfield Rovers Barnsley
Huddersfield fixtures. 61 points. 7 to go Mansfield Wycombe Burton Cambridge Stockport Exeter Orient
Blackpool fixtures. 60 points. 6 to go Rotherham Stevenage Wrexham Wigan Birmingham Rovers
Orient fixtures. 59 points. 7 to go Wigan Mansfield Crawley Barnsley Cambridge Wycombe Huddersfield
Important context missing here though is whether games are at home or away.
For example if Wrexham had to go away to Burton and Bristol Rovers you'd say they would both be tricky games, but Wrexham play them both at home so therefore you'd expect home wins. Wrexham have lost 6 home games in 4 years.
Also some teams have performed very differently at home and away:
It would make sense if they had a really ramshackle, hostile little ground which opposition players hated, but they instead have a bland, modern arena, and hardly the loudest home support either.
Personally i think Wrexham will get 2nd unless they have a major meltdown in their next 3 games against the bottom teams. I can see us and Stockport both overtaking Wycombe and Wycombe then ending up 5th. If that is the case i think i'd rather finish 4th and play Wycombe who are deflated after a bad run, than finish 3rd and face a side who've potentially squeezed into 6th on the last day after a good run of form like Blackpool.
There are scenarios where you might think, on paper, it’s better to come fourth than third. But in reality we have to try and win every match - if we succeed in doing so and that means a slightly tougher semi-final draw then so be it.
Surely it is better to finish third, you then play the sixth placed team, the second game is at home regardless of finishing third or fourth.
If we finish third and have to play a team that has been firing on all cylinders towards the end of the season and sneaks into sixth, I would prefer to finish fourth to face a fading Wycombe that finishes fifth.
Personally i think Wrexham will get 2nd unless they have a major meltdown in their next 3 games against the bottom teams. I can see us and Stockport both overtaking Wycombe and Wycombe then ending up 5th. If that is the case i think i'd rather finish 4th and play Wycombe who are deflated after a bad run, than finish 3rd and face a side who've potentially squeezed into 6th on the last day after a good run of form like Blackpool.
There are scenarios where you might think, on paper, it’s better to come fourth than third. But in reality we have to try and win every match - if we succeed in doing so and that means a slightly tougher semi-final draw then so be it.
Surely it is better to finish third, you then play the sixth placed team, the second game is at home regardless of finishing third or fourth.
If we finish third and have to play a team that has been firing on all cylinders towards the end of the season and sneaks into sixth, I would prefer to finish fourth to face a fading Wycombe that finishes fifth.
This is my thoughts exactly a team storming into 6th will be on a serious run.
although we win every remaining game I think 2nd is on.
Isn’t the “team coming sixth will have the momentum with them” trope a bit of a myth? I thought, statistically, the team coming in sixth gets promoted the least often.
The team coming 6th wins the play offs least often I think, but that doesn’t mean “the team with momentum” doesn’t win the play offs most often. We were the team with momentum last time but also finished 3rd. If Blackpool get up to 6th I wouldn’t want to play them, but also if we keep our form up we will be the team everyone wants to avoid
Wrexham fixtures. 78 points. 6 to go Burton Wigan Bristol Rovers Blackpool Charlton Lincoln
Wycombe fixtures. 75 points. 7 to go Reading Huddersfield Stevenage Bolton Charlton Orient Stockport
Charlton fixtures. 72 points. 6 to go Lincoln Cambridge Northampton Wycombe Wrexham Burton
Stockport fixtures. 71 points. 6 to go Exeter Rotherham Peterborough Huddersfield Lincoln Wycombe
Bolton fixtures. 63 points. 7 to go Rovers Rotherham Barnsley Wycombe Lincoln Peterborough Stevenage
Reading fixtures. 62 points 7 to go Wycombe Shrewsbury Northampton Lincoln Mansfield Rovers Barnsley
Huddersfield fixtures. 61 points. 7 to go Mansfield Wycombe Burton Cambridge Stockport Exeter Orient
Blackpool fixtures. 60 points. 6 to go Rotherham Stevenage Wrexham Wigan Birmingham Rovers
Orient fixtures. 59 points. 7 to go Wigan Mansfield Crawley Barnsley Cambridge Wycombe Huddersfield
Important context missing here though is whether games are at home or away.
For example if Wrexham had to go away to Burton and Bristol Rovers you'd say they would both be tricky games, but Wrexham play them both at home so therefore you'd expect home wins. Wrexham have lost 6 home games in 4 years.
Also some teams have performed very differently at home and away:
Nice piece of research but I guess that’s for the season to date, whereas we’re at that stage of the season where the form we need to be looking at is what’s happened over the last 6 games to give an indication of what’s likely to happen over the next 6 games. Teams in trouble or going nowhere tend to either wake up or give up towards the end of the season.
Wrexham fixtures. 78 points. 6 to go Burton Wigan Bristol Rovers Blackpool Charlton Lincoln
Wycombe fixtures. 75 points. 7 to go Reading Huddersfield Stevenage Bolton Charlton Orient Stockport
Charlton fixtures. 72 points. 6 to go Lincoln Cambridge Northampton Wycombe Wrexham Burton
Stockport fixtures. 71 points. 6 to go Exeter Rotherham Peterborough Huddersfield Lincoln Wycombe
Bolton fixtures. 63 points. 7 to go Rovers Rotherham Barnsley Wycombe Lincoln Peterborough Stevenage
Reading fixtures. 62 points 7 to go Wycombe Shrewsbury Northampton Lincoln Mansfield Rovers Barnsley
Huddersfield fixtures. 61 points. 7 to go Mansfield Wycombe Burton Cambridge Stockport Exeter Orient
Blackpool fixtures. 60 points. 6 to go Rotherham Stevenage Wrexham Wigan Birmingham Rovers
Orient fixtures. 59 points. 7 to go Wigan Mansfield Crawley Barnsley Cambridge Wycombe Huddersfield
Important context missing here though is whether games are at home or away.
For example if Wrexham had to go away to Burton and Bristol Rovers you'd say they would both be tricky games, but Wrexham play them both at home so therefore you'd expect home wins. Wrexham have lost 6 home games in 4 years.
Also some teams have performed very differently at home and away:
Nice piece of research but I guess that’s for the season to date, whereas we’re at that stage of the season where the form we need to be looking at is what’s happened over the last 6 games to give an indication of what’s likely to happen over the next 6 games. Teams in trouble or going nowhere tend to either wake up or give up towards the end of the season.
This is the form for the last 4 home and 4 away fixtures
Based on the form guide, it’s Burton (H), Blackpool (A) Lincoln (A) where you could reasonably expect Wrexham to drop points outside of our head to head.
I think they will drop c6 points from those games, giving us an opportunity for second. But we will need to be close to perfect including beating both Wrexham and Wycombe away.
Based on the form guide, it’s Burton (H), Blackpool (A) Lincoln (A) where you could reasonably expect Wrexham to drop points outside of our head to head.
I think they will drop c6 points from those games, giving us an opportunity for second. But we will need to be close to perfect including beating both Wrexham and Wycombe away.
That’s how I see it. Was hoping Wigan would improve under Lowe and then that could be a tricky game, but I think he’s suspended after a red card so not exactly a new manager bounce there. Wrexham very strong at home so I think they’ll beat burton, if they lose to Blackpool and us then we win all 6 we should be able to swing the GD in our favour
The significant loss to Peterborough worries me, less so when I looked at the stats and the number of shots we had etc. And less worried after the dominant win on Saturday. Tuesday wasn't an impressive performance but getting a win was - winning ugly
Peterborough took the risk and kept 2/3 players up top most of the time which enabled them to counter us and they'd end up 3 on 3 with our defence, resulting in some great chances. It meant they had less back too, which helped us have so many shots but we just didn't capitalise. I don't really see any other team implementing a similar style against us and if they do then Jones is a good enough manager to have learnt a lesson from Peterborough and deal with it better.
Very interested in how Stockport get on against Exeter away this weekend. Exeter have only lost once in the last 6 and that was against Wrexham, and feels like a more difficult fixture than it seems on paper.
Wouldn't mind Stockport getting drawn into a proper scrap to stay in the playoffs if possible, to take the wind out of their sails come playoff time.
Comments
Surely it is better to finish third, you then play the sixth placed team, the second game is at home regardless of finishing third or fourth.
As long as you're prepared to lay 10k down on winning £100
although we win every remaining game I think 2nd is on.
It’s like nobody on here has ever watched a ‘Hollywood’ movie. Plucky little back woods teams battling against the odds to climb the football pyramid and chasing glory tend to have to do it the hard way and then get all the glory…they will divert to the play offs and Wembley. It’s more ‘box-office’ than slipping into 2nd and a basically screen time damp-squib finish. #readthescript
Wrexham fixtures. 78 points. 6 to go
Burton
Wigan
Bristol Rovers
Blackpool
Charlton
Lincoln
Wycombe fixtures. 75 points. 7 to go
Reading
Huddersfield
Stevenage
Bolton
Charlton
Orient
Stockport
Charlton fixtures. 72 points. 6 to go
Lincoln
Cambridge
Northampton
Wycombe
Wrexham
Burton
Stockport fixtures. 71 points. 6 to go
Exeter
Rotherham
Peterborough
Huddersfield
Lincoln
Wycombe
Bolton fixtures. 63 points. 7 to go
Rovers
Rotherham
Barnsley
Wycombe
Lincoln
Peterborough
Stevenage
Reading fixtures. 62 points 7 to go
Wycombe
Shrewsbury
Northampton
Lincoln
Mansfield
Rovers
Barnsley
Huddersfield fixtures. 61 points. 7 to go
Mansfield
Wycombe
Burton
Cambridge
Stockport
Exeter
Orient
Blackpool fixtures. 60 points. 6 to go
Rotherham
Stevenage
Wrexham
Wigan
Birmingham
Rovers
Orient fixtures. 59 points. 7 to go
Wigan
Mansfield
Crawley
Barnsley
Cambridge
Wycombe
Huddersfield
For example if Wrexham had to go away to Burton and Bristol Rovers you'd say they would both be tricky games, but Wrexham play them both at home so therefore you'd expect home wins. Wrexham have lost 6 home games in 4 years.
Home:
Birmingham 1st
Wrexham 2nd
Charlton 3rd
Reading 4th
Stockport 5th
Wycombe 6th
Orient 7th
Bolton 8th
Huddersfield 10th
Blackpool 14th
Away:
Wycombe 1st
Birmingham 2nd
Wrexham 3rd
Blackpool 5th
Huddersfield 6th
Bolton 7th
Stockport 8th
Charlton 9th
Orient 10th
Reading 19th
Beating Huddersfield 4-0 the week after they scored 5 goals was a great achievement and playing good football was the catalyst for many to see that this squad which was being heavily criticised as recently as December and Peterborough away ! can actually play football and use the width of the pitch.
If you are joking then put a 😀
It would make sense if they had a really ramshackle, hostile little ground which opposition players hated, but they instead have a bland, modern arena, and hardly the loudest home support either.
Wouldn't mind Stockport getting drawn into a proper scrap to stay in the playoffs if possible, to take the wind out of their sails come playoff time.
play in the playoffs lol
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/22462813/