The significant loss to Peterborough worries me, less so when I looked at the stats and the number of shots we had etc. And less worried after the dominant win on Saturday. Tuesday wasn't an impressive performance but getting a win was - winning ugly
Peterborough took the risk and kept 2/3 players up top most of the time which enabled them to counter us and they'd end up 3 on 3 with our defence, resulting in some great chances. It meant they had less back too, which helped us have so many shots but we just didn't capitalise. I don't really see any other team implementing a similar style against us and if they do then Jones is a good enough manager to have learnt a lesson from Peterborough and deal with it better.
thanks for the explanation ( as I didn't see the game just the stats)
Personally i think Wrexham will get 2nd unless they have a major meltdown in their next 3 games against the bottom teams. I can see us and Stockport both overtaking Wycombe and Wycombe then ending up 5th. If that is the case i think i'd rather finish 4th and play Wycombe who are deflated after a bad run, than finish 3rd and face a side who've potentially squeezed into 6th on the last day after a good run of form like Blackpool.
There are scenarios where you might think, on paper, it’s better to come fourth than third. But in reality we have to try and win every match - if we succeed in doing so and that means a slightly tougher semi-final draw then so be it.
Surely it is better to finish third, you then play the sixth placed team, the second game is at home regardless of finishing third or fourth.
If we finish third and have to play a team that has been firing on all cylinders towards the end of the season and sneaks into sixth, I would prefer to finish fourth to face a fading Wycombe that finishes fifth.
Personally i think Wrexham will get 2nd unless they have a major meltdown in their next 3 games against the bottom teams. I can see us and Stockport both overtaking Wycombe and Wycombe then ending up 5th. If that is the case i think i'd rather finish 4th and play Wycombe who are deflated after a bad run, than finish 3rd and face a side who've potentially squeezed into 6th on the last day after a good run of form like Blackpool.
There are scenarios where you might think, on paper, it’s better to come fourth than third. But in reality we have to try and win every match - if we succeed in doing so and that means a slightly tougher semi-final draw then so be it.
Surely it is better to finish third, you then play the sixth placed team, the second game is at home regardless of finishing third or fourth.
If we finish third and have to play a team that has been firing on all cylinders towards the end of the season and sneaks into sixth, I would prefer to finish fourth to face a fading Wycombe that finishes fifth.
This is my thoughts exactly a team storming into 6th will be on a serious run.
although we win every remaining game I think 2nd is on.
Isn’t the “team coming sixth will have the momentum with them” trope a bit of a myth? I thought, statistically, the team coming in sixth gets promoted the least often.
The team coming 6th wins the play offs least often I think, but that doesn’t mean “the team with momentum” doesn’t win the play offs most often. We were the team with momentum last time but also finished 3rd. If Blackpool get up to 6th I wouldn’t want to play them, but also if we keep our form up we will be the team everyone wants to avoid
If we finish third, which involves not only overhauling Wycombe but also keeping ahead of Stockport, we will have momentum!
No matter where we finish, I just want too avoid Stockport over 2 legs. Out of all the teams up there, they have been the ones that I have watched and thought, they have the better of us.
No matter where we finish, I just want too avoid Stockport over 2 legs. Out of all the teams up there, they have been the ones that I have watched and thought, they have the better of us.
They looked very good and physical in the game at their place, but the ref was letting a lot of things go (for both teams). I don't remember feeling like they outplayed us, a draw was fair. If we get a stricter ref then it could be a very different game.
Thats brilliant. I like the way that towards the end everything is pretty static. Must be because the top teams have built a bit of a points gap so a defeat doesn't affect their position that much.
No matter where we finish, I just want too avoid Stockport over 2 legs. Out of all the teams up there, they have been the ones that I have watched and thought, they have the better of us.
I think it would be a cagey and close 2 legs. We had the better of them at the valley but they were better at theirs. I actually think we’d beat them at Wembley as the bigger pitch would suit us getting Small and TC at them, which we didn’t do in the away game on a smaller pitch
No matter where we finish, I just want too avoid Stockport over 2 legs. Out of all the teams up there, they have been the ones that I have watched and thought, they have the better of us.
I think it would be a cagey and close 2 legs. We had the better of them at the valley but they were better at theirs. I actually think we’d beat them at Wembley as the bigger pitch would suit us getting Small and TC at them, which we didn’t do in the away game on a smaller pitch
I'd definitely take Stockport at Wembley, realistically how many fans would they bring to a playoff final?
Same as Wycombe actually, they wouldn't sell anything like Sunderland did, whereas I'd expect Huddersfield and Bolton to bring big numbers if they got to a playoff final
I think Wrexham are set for 2nd. We should be giving everything to overhaul Wycombe and get 3rd. Secure the "easier" opposition and home 2nd leg.
I'm not sure it makes that much difference whether we finish 3rd or 4th. The team finishing 6th could be a form team surging into the playoffs.
And even the home second leg isn't that important. Yes it massively helped the penalty shootout against Doncaster, but we actually lost the match on the night, whereas we comfortably won the 1st away leg.
We nearly comfortably won the away leg. If that header had gone in, we'd have been 3-0 up and I don't think we'd have conceded. That would have been comfortable.
Here’s a scenario over the next four or five games:
- Charlton beat Lincoln and Northampton at home, drawing with either Mansfield or Cambridge away. +10pts - Wrexham win two, draw one and lose one of their next four. +7pts - Wycombe win two, draw one and lose two of their next five. +7pts
Heading into Easter Monday the table looks like: - Wrexham 84pts - Wycombe 81pts - Charlton 79pts
Wrexham lose at Blackpool & Charlton win at Wycombe & suddenly the table looks like: - Wrexham 84pts - Charlton 82pts - Wycombe 81pts
The following weekend, we’d go to Wrexham knowing a win means automatic promotion is in our own hands the following weekend against Burton.
Anything is possible of course but if my auntie had bollocks she’d be my uncle. Too many ifs and buts in that scenario for me but I live in hope.
Not in this day and age mate. Your auntie can have a pair of bollocks and still be your auntie.
And your uncle might be like an error off the Topic production line - nut free.
Same as Wycombe actually, they wouldn't sell anything like Sunderland did, whereas I'd expect Huddersfield and Bolton to bring big numbers if they got to a playoff final
Bolton got to last years final and took just over 30k, so i think they'd potentially see a slight drop off from that going back there so soon.
Huddersfield would take a lot and so would Reading if the EFL allow them to play.
Wycombe, Stockport, Blackpool etc i don't think would take more than 25k.
Personally i think Wrexham will get 2nd unless they have a major meltdown in their next 3 games against the bottom teams. I can see us and Stockport both overtaking Wycombe and Wycombe then ending up 5th. If that is the case i think i'd rather finish 4th and play Wycombe who are deflated after a bad run, than finish 3rd and face a side who've potentially squeezed into 6th on the last day after a good run of form like Blackpool.
There are scenarios where you might think, on paper, it’s better to come fourth than third. But in reality we have to try and win every match - if we succeed in doing so and that means a slightly tougher semi-final draw then so be it.
If we win every match until the play-offs, we will be the form team, so who would want to play us? Thank back to 97/98, we were in the form of our lives going in to those two Ipswich games. Good as Ipswich may have been, they couldn't have fancied playing us.
Couldn't resist another look at the Wembley game, I still get a buzz when Rufus scores his first Charlton goal.
Been doing a bit of a look back as there has been talk and discussion about the team finishing 3rd, team finishing 6th, team having most momentum - who goes up via the playoffs. Well, the last 6 games momentum look pretty crucial. Points gained in brackets:
So in 4 of the past 5 fully completed seasons the team with the most points in the last 6 games has been promoted. Blackpool are the only exception in 2020/21, and they were second in the form table.
digressing a wee bit .. there is nearly always a 'bolter' from the back of the pack into the play offs, Blackpool will be this year's I reckon Yes, we will be in the playoffs and still have a very outside chance of 2nd place
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They're all going to be tough games, fingers crossed we won't have to worry about it.
Huddersfield would take a lot and so would Reading if the EFL allow them to play.
Wycombe, Stockport, Blackpool etc i don't think would take more than 25k.
Couldn't resist another look at the Wembley game, I still get a buzz when Rufus scores his first Charlton goal.
2018/19:
3rd Charlton (15)
4th Portsmouth (11)
5th Sunderland (5)
6th Doncaster (10)
Promoted: Charlton
2019/20: Ignored due to season ending early because of Covid. Playoffs did take place but hard to say momentum was a factor when they were played.
Promoted: Wycombe, who "finished" 3rd.
2020/21:
3rd Blackpool (12)
4th Sunderland (6)
5th Lincoln City (8)
6th Oxford (15)
Promoted: Blackpool
2021/22:
3rd MK Dons (10)
4th Sheff Wed (13)
5th Sunderland (14)
6th Wycombe (14)
Promoted: Sunderland
2022/23:
3rd Sheff Wed (15)
4th Barnsley (8)
5th Bolton (13)
6th Peterborough (10)
Promoted: Sheff Wed
2023/24:
3rd Bolton (12)
4th Peterborough (10)
5th Oxford (13)
6th Barnsley (2)
Promoted: Oxford
So in 4 of the past 5 fully completed seasons the team with the most points in the last 6 games has been promoted. Blackpool are the only exception in 2020/21, and they were second in the form table.
Yes, we will be in the playoffs and still have a very outside chance of 2nd place