Will We Win the Playoffs?

se9addick · May 4

Woodwork said:

se9addick said:

Woodwork said:

bromleyjohn said:

Stockport are the standout favourites which suits us down to the ground

Not sure that would feel true on day. Finished 2 points ahead, but having come up from L2. Lost their most influential player in January. Not long ago they were non-league. Stepping out at Wembley in front of 40,000 Charlton fans & what, 15-25,000 Stockport fans? Ex Premier League club, Charlton. A club no one can dispute is playing below their level, despite the last 15 years. I think Stockport would be able to easily see themselves as underdogs, and the media will portray it that way too. Rising from the ashes to take on fallen PL side for a shot at the Championship.

Not sure the media will be coming up for narratives for a match between Charlton & Stockport!

It will be interesting though if we get to Wembley. You’d assume that it will be a borderline home match for us given the massive disparity in the number of fans from each side.

Not the national sporting press, I doubt that they could care less about League One. I meant the Sky Sports view will be plucky Stockport/Orient v ex PL Charlton. This was in reply to someone saying Stockport will be clear favourites. I just can’t see that in any sense. They just came up & lost their best player in January. And were non league not long ago. Given how it has all panned out, surely people will have Charlton as favourites, as have an out of form Wycombe in Semis!

I think there’s a pretty strong argument for Stockport being favourites:

i) over the course of the season they finished ahead of the other three teams they are up against in the playoffs
ii) they are in better form than Charlton and Wycombe
iii) they just won in a fairly high pressure match, away from home in their final game of the season

If they lost their best player in January it doesn’t seem to have derailed them too much in the intervening four months.

Briston_Addick · May 4

Woodwork said:

IanJRO said:

I think this favourite vs underdog mentality is more us fans thinking. The work NJ has done on this groups mentality is phenomenal and they will filled with the belief (rightly) that they can beat anyone in the playoffs.

Shut out any media or fan narrative and just focus on winning each game as we are more than capable of doing it, the rest is just noise.

True. But my point is that they are human. And they are lower league footballers. Stepping out at Wembley & seeing a sea of red & white willing you on will have an impact, at least on some of them. Charlton are playing below their level as a club.

The pressure is on Jones & the players to change that. So he will be earning his money getting them to approach Wembley as just another game. And I am sure some of the players will step up to that challenge. I was just saying that personally, I think it does play a part in these big games at this level (how often do you see players for big clubs like Leeds and Wednesday struggle to live up to expectations when they have been in L1).

Besides, we are getting ahead of ourselves. A wounded Wycombe are the first test. No doubt they have a lot to prove to their fans and themselves.

Gonna be exciting & tense whatever happens!

For a few years now our home crowds haven't been anything to get excited about. At best we've been announcing 15/16k when in reality it's been closer to 13/14k (or even lower) due to no-shows. When we've had one of the special promotion days - Kids For A Quid, Football For A Fiver, or ST holders claim a free ticket - we've had big crowds, nudging 20k, and the team has responded like a collapsing souffle.

The last couple of home games have been different with 20k home fans actually in attendance ... and this side has thrived. Even going behind yesterday to such a monumental foul up as the back pass and subsequent penalty didn't faze this group, they got on with the job (albeit against an on-the-beach Burton) and turned it around. In the eras pre-Jones I don't think we would have done (possibly under Lord Bowyer but even then we still struggled occasionally).

This squad is made of sterner stuff and this will lift them rather than daunt them.

cafc4life · May 4

Have a horrible feeling we will just fall short despite the great second half of the season we’ve had .

Wycombe will not be a walk over like people are expecting just because of what happened 2 weeks ago. That coupled with our current injuries etc, I think we are too confident we will stroll it and that will bite us on the arse.

as a Charlton fan, I’m always overly pessimistic with our chances because of what we have experienced before. If we do manage to do it, then I’ll be the happiest man about but it’s Charlton, we don’t seem to get nice things do we.

southamptonaddick · May 4

I don't get all this "Burton were on the beach".
We beat them because we are a good team who finished 4th from top and they are not a good team who finished 4th from bottom.

Woodwork · May 4

se9addick said:

Woodwork said:

se9addick said:

Woodwork said:

bromleyjohn said:

Stockport are the standout favourites which suits us down to the ground

Not sure that would feel true on day. Finished 2 points ahead, but having come up from L2. Lost their most influential player in January. Not long ago they were non-league. Stepping out at Wembley in front of 40,000 Charlton fans & what, 15-25,000 Stockport fans? Ex Premier League club, Charlton. A club no one can dispute is playing below their level, despite the last 15 years. I think Stockport would be able to easily see themselves as underdogs, and the media will portray it that way too. Rising from the ashes to take on fallen PL side for a shot at the Championship.

Not sure the media will be coming up for narratives for a match between Charlton & Stockport!

It will be interesting though if we get to Wembley. You’d assume that it will be a borderline home match for us given the massive disparity in the number of fans from each side.

Not the national sporting press, I doubt that they could care less about League One. I meant the Sky Sports view will be plucky Stockport/Orient v ex PL Charlton. This was in reply to someone saying Stockport will be clear favourites. I just can’t see that in any sense. They just came up & lost their best player in January. And were non league not long ago. Given how it has all panned out, surely people will have Charlton as favourites, as have an out of form Wycombe in Semis!

I think there’s a pretty strong argument for Stockport being favourites:

i) over the course of the season they finished ahead of the other three teams they are up against in the playoffs
ii) they are in better form than Charlton and Wycombe
iii) they just won in a fairly high pressure match, away from home in their final game of the season

If they lost their best player in January it doesn’t seem to have derailed them too much in the intervening four months.

I would’t say that was a strong argument. Just a different point of view, which is fair enough. Only because they only finished 2 points ahead & face a more in form team than Wycombe in the Semi-Finals.

DennisBooth · May 4

DennisBooth said:

I don’t think we will win the Playoffs. I think Leyton Orient will do it.

Just my opinion. You are still allowed to have an opinion on this forum aren’t you? As a Charlton supporter of 65 years it goes without saying that I would love us to get promoted.But I have a sneaky feeling that the Os will do it.

Woodwork · May 4

Briston_Addick said:

Woodwork said:

IanJRO said:

I think this favourite vs underdog mentality is more us fans thinking. The work NJ has done on this groups mentality is phenomenal and they will filled with the belief (rightly) that they can beat anyone in the playoffs.

Shut out any media or fan narrative and just focus on winning each game as we are more than capable of doing it, the rest is just noise.

True. But my point is that they are human. And they are lower league footballers. Stepping out at Wembley & seeing a sea of red & white willing you on will have an impact, at least on some of them. Charlton are playing below their level as a club.

The pressure is on Jones & the players to change that. So he will be earning his money getting them to approach Wembley as just another game. And I am sure some of the players will step up to that challenge. I was just saying that personally, I think it does play a part in these big games at this level (how often do you see players for big clubs like Leeds and Wednesday struggle to live up to expectations when they have been in L1).

Besides, we are getting ahead of ourselves. A wounded Wycombe are the first test. No doubt they have a lot to prove to their fans and themselves.

Gonna be exciting & tense whatever happens!

For a few years now our home crowds haven't been anything to get excited about. At best we've been announcing 15/16k when in reality it's been closer to 13/14k (or even lower) due to no-shows. When we've had one of the special promotion days - Kids For A Quid, Football For A Fiver, or ST holders claim a free ticket - we've had big crowds, nudging 20k, and the team has responded like a collapsing souffle.

The last couple of home games have been different with 20k home fans actually in attendance ... and this side has thrived. Even going behind yesterday to such a monumental foul up as the back pass and subsequent penalty didn't faze this group, they got on with the job (albeit against an on-the-beach Burton) and turned it around. In the eras pre-Jones I don't think we would have done (possibly under Lord Bowyer but even then we still struggled occasionally).

This squad is made of sterner stuff and this will lift them rather than daunt them.

I’d still take yesterday’s & the Northampton attendance with a pinch of salt. Not as much salt as when 14-15,000 was being announced for sub 10,000 gates, but still a dash of salt nevertheless.

And not sure a relaxed game v Burton at The Valley is a good indicator of how they’ll perform in a winner takes all match at Wembley. Wrexham was a high pressure game…

CAFC_boi · May 4

I don’t think we’ll ever get an ‘easier’ set of play off teams, based on the size of clubs, to compete against for promotion. If we cannot get the better of Wycombe and one of Stockport or Leyton Orient, then frankly we don’t deserve promotion.

It’s crazy the amount of ‘bigger’ clubs that have missed out this season, so we must take advantage of this great opportunity. Next season I don’t it’ll be his advantageous.

Confident of getting to Wembley and then in a one off game there with a full strength 11 and 35k + fans backing us, I’d make us favourites but anything can happen in a one off game.

Regardless, it’s exciting and for the first time in 5 years, all I can think about are the upcoming games!

I would be ecstatic all summer if we’re in the championship next season! COYA!

MuttleyCAFC · May 4

I don't think there is much between us and Stockport but strongly believe they have the harder semi which makes us slight favourites at this point. Bookies just look at where teams finished in the table so you might as well ignore them and look at the table.

ShootersHillGuru · May 4

If we’re good enough over the three games then we will. We’ll need Jones fit though. He’s such an influential figure for us. I’d say Stockport start as favourites with possibly us as second. Wycombe are having a right wobble at the wrong time and Orient score a lot of goals. I’d say we’ve got a 60% chance of doing it.

DamoNorthStand · May 4

I said all along I didn’t want to get Wycombe in a semi final. I’m a data guy by trade and in any given sample of 4 games versus another play off contender, the chances of us winning all four are very slim. Even 3 of 4 would be some going.

They simply won’t be as bad as the last game we played them. Law of averages says they have to beat us eventually.

stoneroses19 · May 4

CAFC_boi said:

I don’t think we’ll ever get an ‘easier’ set of play off teams, based on the size of clubs, to compete against for promotion. If we cannot get the better of Wycombe and one of Stockport or Leyton Orient, then frankly we don’t deserve promotion.

It’s crazy the amount of ‘bigger’ clubs that have missed out this season, so we must take advantage of this great opportunity. Next season I don’t it’ll be his advantageous.

Confident of getting to Wembley and then in a one off game there with a full strength 11 and 35k + fans backing us, I’d make us favourites but anything can happen in a one off game.

Regardless, it’s exciting and for the first time in 5 years, all I can think about are the upcoming games!

I would be ecstatic all summer if we’re in the championship next season! COYA!

Size of a club doesn't mean too much on the pitch though, otherwise likes of Brentford, Luton, Bournemouth wouldn't have made it all the way to premier league in recent years.

Can only look at the ease and difficulty of play offs with what the four sides do on the pitch. I never understand the "if you can't get the better of (enter a certain team) then don't deserve promotion"

Agree that with a full strength 11 we will make it to Wembley, then let's see in the one-off game.

Callumcafc · May 4

DamoNorthStand said:

I said all along I didn’t want to get Wycombe in a semi final. I’m a data guy by trade and in any given sample of 4 games versus another play off contender, the chances of us winning all four are very slim. Even 3 of 4 would be some going.

They simply won’t be as bad as the last game we played them. Law of averages says they have to beat us eventually.

Same with Orient isn’t it? We did the double over them too.

The only semi final opponent you would want would be Stockport?

charente addick · May 4

Woodwork said:

I just have this feeling Leyton Orient are going to be the real fairytale story of L1 (as opposed to Wrexham). They look the best football side & are coming into it with their tails up.

Stepping out at Wembley in front of 40,000 Charlton fans as favourites may add a bit of pressure to the players. Whereas Orient (or Stockport) may relish the underdog role.
That’s the trouble with this level when you reach a Wembley final. You may have the big support, but you still have third tier footballers. I went with other half & her family to the Millwall v Scunthorpe United, 2009 L1 Play-off. They had 49,661 fans there. Scunny had 10,000. And I think the occasion did get to them, as Scunny came out second half playing like they had nothing to lose, whereas Millwall looked very nervy (even managing to miss from just inches out). Still it was a lovely sunny day out 😂

I just think Charlton have always enjoyed the role of underdog far more. And that’s the danger for me.

If Orient get there they'll have thousands of W Ham/ Spurs fans buying tickets

Callumcafc · May 4

Wycombe’s last three games were a 4-0 loss against us, a 1-0 loss to Orient and a 3-1 loss to Stockport. All three other playoff contenders.

Their fans must be proper deflated.

th0rryy · May 4

It's incredibly close, and, for the neutral, will make for some fascinating games.

Stockport vs Orient is a great match-up. Stockport are a gritty, organised team that are more than the sum of their parts, with experience of winning and with a good manager. Orient are one of the better footballing sides in the league and have an amazing front line that can score out of nothing. Both in form. Both capable of getting results for different reasons. Both have shown character.

I'm finding it tough to call, but I think Stockport will edge it. Might go to pens. It's about belief. Orient need to win the home leg to make it interesting.

For us vs. Wycombe, I think we edge it, but NJ will absolutely not take it for granted. We need our best 11 out, so navigating yesterday without issues was good. We've shown we can beat them home and away, so it's all about doing the work again.

Wembley is a lottery, so almost impossible to predict. However, I just think in players like Godden, Berry and TC, we have some X factor players that would shine in those situations. IF we keep everyone fit, I believe - Ted Lasso-style.

North Lower Neil · May 4

Think we'll beat Wycombe, and I fancy Stockport to beat Orient.

Final is then a one off game between two teams in good form, and anything can happen.

Woodwork · May 4

charente addick said:

Woodwork said:

I just have this feeling Leyton Orient are going to be the real fairytale story of L1 (as opposed to Wrexham). They look the best football side & are coming into it with their tails up.

Stepping out at Wembley in front of 40,000 Charlton fans as favourites may add a bit of pressure to the players. Whereas Orient (or Stockport) may relish the underdog role.
That’s the trouble with this level when you reach a Wembley final. You may have the big support, but you still have third tier footballers. I went with other half & her family to the Millwall v Scunthorpe United, 2009 L1 Play-off. They had 49,661 fans there. Scunny had 10,000. And I think the occasion did get to them, as Scunny came out second half playing like they had nothing to lose, whereas Millwall looked very nervy (even managing to miss from just inches out). Still it was a lovely sunny day out 😂

I just think Charlton have always enjoyed the role of underdog far more. And that’s the danger for me.

If Orient get there they'll have thousands of W Ham/ Spurs fans buying tickets

I always think that is a bit of a myth about crowds at Wembley. I am sure some Spurs, Arsenal & West Ham may go. But I think turn outs at Wembley are inflated more by family & friends of the genuine fanbase, rather than Dave the Spurs fan thinking ‘I know, I’ll give up my day & best part of £100 all in to watch Orient in a L1 one play-off’. Especially in the current financial climate. Now, if Dave’s brother is a big Orient fan etc. he may go with the family. But I don’t think thousands of Arsenal, Spurs or West Ham fans in NW London/Essex are chomping at the bit to go watch League One football just cos it’s at Wembley.

I can’t see them having more than 25,000.

bromleyjohn · May 4

Either we were overawed by the occasion at Wrexham or we had too many nursing injuries or we need our very best/usual 11 on the pitch but if there is even a smattering of being overawed by the occasion it becomes a subpar display. You’re using your energy to control your emotions rather than kicking the ball and running around. that own goal against Sunderland at Wembley kind of took all emotion out of the equation and meant we could play without being overawed.

peterreeves · May 4

The difference I think to winning the play offs is our Manager, if Nathan has got the teams mentality right then we will win.

Couldn't care less about Challinor, Wellens or Dodds, Nathan has a lot to prove to the football world especially after the debacle at Southampton. The man is totally wired and focused on one thing and Ive never seen that in any manager since Firmani onwards.

If we go out to a sucker punch or penalties I still believe Nathan will get us promoted next season.

Woodwork · May 4

CAFC_boi said:

I don’t think we’ll ever get an ‘easier’ set of play off teams, based on the size of clubs, to compete against for promotion. If we cannot get the better of Wycombe and one of Stockport or Leyton Orient, then frankly we don’t deserve promotion.

It’s crazy the amount of ‘bigger’ clubs that have missed out this season, so we must take advantage of this great opportunity. Next season I don’t it’ll be his advantageous.

Confident of getting to Wembley and then in a one off game there with a full strength 11 and 35k + fans backing us, I’d make us favourites but anything can happen in a one off game.

Regardless, it’s exciting and for the first time in 5 years, all I can think about are the upcoming games!

I would be ecstatic all summer if we’re in the championship next season! COYA!

Agreed.

Next season, you have to imagine three or four out of Luton, Plymouth, Cardiff, Bolton, Peterborough, Reading, Barnsley, Blackpool, Huddersfield, Rotherham will be stronger or equal to Wycombe this season. So that makes it extremely competitive. So whilst you lose big spending Birmingham City, I think Luton Town will have a budget similar to Wrexham. And it sounds like Wycombe’s owners are willing to invest too.

This is the best opportunity of promotion in a while imo.

bobmunro · May 4

MuttleyCAFC said:

I don't think there is much between us and Stockport but strongly believe they have the harder semi which makes us slight favourites at this point. Bookies just look at where teams finished in the table so you might as well ignore them and look at the table.

Bookmakers are a little bit cleverer than that!

My take (not dissimilar to you) is that we are slight favourites. There is nothing between us and Stockport - just 2 points in league and both our games against them were draws. Stockport have the toughest semi-final against an Orient side that were there, sank like a stone after we beat them, and then came roaring back. Orient have the best last six game stats - SIX wins and their confidence will be sky high but Stockport have 9 more points in the league so will be favourites against Orient but not by much. We have the easiest (on paper) semi-final so on that basis we are favourites of the four to reach the final in my book. I would price it:

Charlton 2/1

Stockport 9/4

Wycombe 3/1

Orient 10/3

On that basis and based on best odds currently available, the smart money would be on us at 5/2 and Orient at 9/2.

bobmunro · May 4

DamoNorthStand said:

I said all along I didn’t want to get Wycombe in a semi final. I’m a data guy by trade and in any given sample of 4 games versus another play off contender, the chances of us winning all four are very slim. Even 3 of 4 would be some going.

They simply won’t be as bad as the last game we played them. Law of averages says they have to beat us eventually.

The gamblers fallacy at play there! If you wanted to predict all four wins before the first game against them then I would agree, a very slim chance - but there are two games already played so all it leaves it us to win one game (over 180 minutes) the previous two games have no bearing on that.

SamB09 · May 4

Woodwork said:

I just have this feeling Leyton Orient are going to be the real fairytale story of L1 (as opposed to Wrexham). They look the best football side & are coming into it with their tails up.

Stepping out at Wembley in front of 40,000 Charlton fans as favourites may add a bit of pressure to the players. Whereas Orient (or Stockport) may relish the underdog role.
That’s the trouble with this level when you reach a Wembley final. You may have the big support, but you still have third tier footballers. I went with other half & her family to the Millwall v Scunthorpe United, 2009 L1 Play-off. They had 49,661 fans there. Scunny had 10,000. And I think the occasion did get to them, as Scunny came out second half playing like they had nothing to lose, whereas Millwall looked very nervy (even managing to miss from just inches out). Still it was a lovely sunny day out 😂

I just think Charlton have always enjoyed the role of underdog far more. And that’s the danger for me.

But they are playing against 3rd division players..

Chris_from_Sidcup · May 4

Woodwork said:

se9addick said:

Woodwork said:

bromleyjohn said:

Stockport are the standout favourites which suits us down to the ground

Not sure that would feel true on day. Finished 2 points ahead, but having come up from L2. Lost their most influential player in January. Not long ago they were non-league. Stepping out at Wembley in front of 40,000 Charlton fans & what, 15-25,000 Stockport fans? Ex Premier League club, Charlton. A club no one can dispute is playing below their level, despite the last 15 years. I think Stockport would be able to easily see themselves as underdogs, and the media will portray it that way too. Rising from the ashes to take on fallen PL side for a shot at the Championship.

Not sure the media will be coming up for narratives for a match between Charlton & Stockport!

It will be interesting though if we get to Wembley. You’d assume that it will be a borderline home match for us given the massive disparity in the number of fans from each side.

Not the national sporting press, I doubt that they could care less about League One. I meant the Sky Sports view will be plucky Stockport/Orient v ex PL Charlton. This was in reply to someone saying Stockport will be clear favourites. I just can’t see that in any sense. They just came up & lost their best player in January. And were non league not long ago. Given how it has all panned out, surely people will have Charlton as favourites, as have an out of form Wycombe in Semis!

Not sure what them just coming up has to do with it, they're there on merit, finished above us and we didn't beat them in either league game. They also seem to have coped pretty well without Barry since January.

Also lost their captain Lewis Bate to injury a few weeks ago and without him they won 5 and drew 1.

I do agree they wouldn't be 'clear' favourites if we get them at Wembley, but i don't think we would be either.

DamoNorthStand · May 4

Callumcafc said:

DamoNorthStand said:

I said all along I didn’t want to get Wycombe in a semi final. I’m a data guy by trade and in any given sample of 4 games versus another play off contender, the chances of us winning all four are very slim. Even 3 of 4 would be some going.

They simply won’t be as bad as the last game we played them. Law of averages says they have to beat us eventually.

Same with Orient isn’t it? We did the double over them too.

The only semi final opponent you would want would be Stockport?

Funnily enough I wanted Stockport for that very reason. We should have battered them at the valley.

End of the day we’ve got to beat 2 of the other 3 teams. And with a fully fit squad, and a great manager, we’ve certainly got a chance

ShootersHillGuru · May 4

DamoNorthStand said:

I said all along I didn’t want to get Wycombe in a semi final. I’m a data guy by trade and in any given sample of 4 games versus another play off contender, the chances of us winning all four are very slim. Even 3 of 4 would be some going.

They simply won’t be as bad as the last game we played them. Law of averages says they have to beat us eventually.

Well the law of averages doesn’t really apply and I’d take a 1 - 0 loss at their place and a 2 - 0 win at The Valley.

Woodwork · May 4

SamB09 said:

Woodwork said:

I just have this feeling Leyton Orient are going to be the real fairytale story of L1 (as opposed to Wrexham). They look the best football side & are coming into it with their tails up.

Stepping out at Wembley in front of 40,000 Charlton fans as favourites may add a bit of pressure to the players. Whereas Orient (or Stockport) may relish the underdog role.
That’s the trouble with this level when you reach a Wembley final. You may have the big support, but you still have third tier footballers. I went with other half & her family to the Millwall v Scunthorpe United, 2009 L1 Play-off. They had 49,661 fans there. Scunny had 10,000. And I think the occasion did get to them, as Scunny came out second half playing like they had nothing to lose, whereas Millwall looked very nervy (even managing to miss from just inches out). Still it was a lovely sunny day out 😂

I just think Charlton have always enjoyed the role of underdog far more. And that’s the danger for me.

But they are playing against 3rd division players..

Ah. You’ve slightly missed my point. Which was that lower league players aren’t as adapt at dealing with pressure as the likes of Roy Keane, who thrived on big game, do or die situations. Imo.

Charlton will be stepping out at Wembley as the ‘big dogs’ against either Leyton Orient or Stockport County. It is in those situations players can feel the pressure & expectation bestowed on them by history & stature. The Orient & Stockport players will feel pressure, but not the same weight of expectation (imo).

It has taken Leeds United 20 years to simply become a PL yo-yo club after their relegation in 2004. Bielsa talked about the pressure & expectation players felt pulling on that shirt. He was able to take that away from them. But it had certainly impacted them for years, as they had to sign players beneath their historic level of expectation. Manchester United are going through something similar now.

Yes, both teams will be lining up with L1 players at Wembley. But one set of players will have more weight & expectation on them. I have read different posters on here say that anything but promotion from L1 is a failure of a season. And tbf, from a historical point of view, that is true. Neither Orient or Stockport will see it that way. They can happily play the underdog role. Psychology is a huge part of sport. Even if we can point to the fact that Stockport finished higher, their players can easily convince themselves that the expectation is all on Charlton.

Now, Nathan Jones is easily the best manager at this level to have in this situation. So I am not being negative. I am just saying that I believe it is something that needs to be managed. As this team seems to prefer the underdog / up against it mindset, and as a club, that is certainly Charlton’s DNA. I’d much rather face a Sunderland or Birmingham City at Wembley in a L1 play off final than a Lincoln City or Crawley Town, for example.

JaShea99 · May 4

DennisBooth said:

DennisBooth said:

I don’t think we will win the Playoffs. I think Leyton Orient will do it.

Just my opinion. You are still allowed to have an opinion on this forum aren’t you? As a Charlton supporter of 65 years it goes without saying that I would love us to get promoted.But I have a sneaky feeling that the Os will do it.

No. Check the recently updated rules.

carly burn · May 4

I've had a really bad feeling about them for months now.
Think we're due a heart breaker and I think Wembley will be it.
That said. We've got a fine mix of good experience and youthful exuberance. And as each game passes we seem to be getting closer to the side Bow produced.

Will We Win the Playoffs?

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