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The influence of the EU on Britain.

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  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 52,030
    So I believe Jo Johnson is saying what I said about a month ago.
    We need another public vote with 3 options.
    1 Choose the deal we are offered.
    2 No deal & we go it alone.
    3 Remain.

    Personally, I don't think it's too late to take this as a lesson learnt & vote Remain.
    I do not trust any of our politicians of any colour to now make a success of an alternative.
    Under the circumstances the only sensible option is to Remain.
    As you were.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46155403
  • se9addick
    se9addick Posts: 32,057
    Covered End said:

    So I believe Jo Johnson is saying what I said about a month ago.
    We need another public vote with 3 options.
    1 Choose the deal we are offered.
    2 No deal & we go it alone.
    3 Remain.

    Personally, I don't think it's too late to take this as a lesson learnt & vote Remain.
    I do not trust any of our politicians of any colour to now make a success of an alternative.
    Under the circumstances the only sensible option is to Remain.
    As you were.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46155403

    What if you end up with 34% for one option and 33% for the other two?
  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 52,030
    se9addick said:

    Covered End said:

    So I believe Jo Johnson is saying what I said about a month ago.
    We need another public vote with 3 options.
    1 Choose the deal we are offered.
    2 No deal & we go it alone.
    3 Remain.

    Personally, I don't think it's too late to take this as a lesson learnt & vote Remain.
    I do not trust any of our politicians of any colour to now make a success of an alternative.
    Under the circumstances the only sensible option is to Remain.
    As you were.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46155403

    What if you end up with 34% for one option and 33% for the other two?
    Fight!
  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 52,030
    Seriously, I do think it will be close, but at least we can't have claims of being mislead & people not knowing what they are voting for.
  • MuttleyCAFC
    MuttleyCAFC Posts: 47,742
    As a boy, for a time, my hero was Evel Knievel. That is until I worked out there were people who did what he did much better without crashing all of the time. But one story I recall is his grand canyon jump in a rocket powered bike (it was more a rocket than a bike). Evel knew before the jump that he couldn't make it - the calculations were all wrong - but rather than admit it, he went ahead, opened the chute and hoped he didn't die. He was badly injured, but that was par for the course with him. For some reason I think of this when I think of Brexit.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2p1khN1xyBw
  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 52,030
    I agree.
  • RodneyCharltonTrotta
    RodneyCharltonTrotta Posts: 14,830
    Brexit explained...


    image
  • aliwibble
    aliwibble Posts: 26,438
    se9addick said:

    Covered End said:

    So I believe Jo Johnson is saying what I said about a month ago.
    We need another public vote with 3 options.
    1 Choose the deal we are offered.
    2 No deal & we go it alone.
    3 Remain.

    Personally, I don't think it's too late to take this as a lesson learnt & vote Remain.
    I do not trust any of our politicians of any colour to now make a success of an alternative.
    Under the circumstances the only sensible option is to Remain.
    As you were.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46155403

    What if you end up with 34% for one option and 33% for the other two?
    Do what @Chizz (I think it was) suggested and use a transferable vote option. People indicate their 1st and 2nd choices, and the votes with the least popular option as 1st choice get redistributed to the 2nd choice on each ballot paper.
  • PragueAddick
    PragueAddick Posts: 22,161
    se9addick said:

    PragueAddick said:

    DiscoCAFC said:

    micks1950 said:

    Red_in_SE8 said:

    Will of the people? My arse! 54% Remain 46% Leave. Poll of 20,000 people.

    Yes I saw that Channel 4 programme.

    The problem with it's poll that no one mentioned is that virtually all the polls and most of the 'pundits' also predicted a 'Remain' win in the run up to the original June 23rd 2016 vote - and look what happened.

    The screenshot below shows the polls in the week leading up to June 23rd:

    image

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-the-united-kingdom-remain-a-member-of-the-eu-or-leave-the-eu/?removed
    If you remember rightly, the polls shows the Remain win right before the vote count started.
    hi @DiscoCAFC I commented in detail on poll accuracy yesterday, based on what I have learnt from my wife who is a market research specialist. The pollsters believe they have learnt lessons both here and in the USA. I wrote that a big test of those learnings now would be how accurate they are for the mid- terms USA. Turns out that they were very accurate.
    Did they also call the Senate vote correctly?
    Yes. I went to bed having heard the poll-based prediction that the Democrats would regain Congress but that Trump would keep hold of the Senate. and that is what I woke up to. I am sure they got it wrong in places, but nationally they got it right, unlike in 2016.

  • PragueAddick
    PragueAddick Posts: 22,161
    Could have selected from 20 similar tweets to this.


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  • Chizz
    Chizz Posts: 28,342
    aliwibble said:

    se9addick said:

    Covered End said:

    So I believe Jo Johnson is saying what I said about a month ago.
    We need another public vote with 3 options.
    1 Choose the deal we are offered.
    2 No deal & we go it alone.
    3 Remain.

    Personally, I don't think it's too late to take this as a lesson learnt & vote Remain.
    I do not trust any of our politicians of any colour to now make a success of an alternative.
    Under the circumstances the only sensible option is to Remain.
    As you were.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46155403

    What if you end up with 34% for one option and 33% for the other two?
    Do what @Chizz (I think it was) suggested and use a transferable vote option. People indicate their 1st and 2nd choices, and the votes with the least popular option as 1st choice get redistributed to the 2nd choice on each ballot paper.
    I wasn't the first, but yes I did post something along those lines. I'm still convinced it's the least bad way of extracating the Government from its self-inflicted impasse.
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,675
    aliwibble said:

    se9addick said:

    Covered End said:

    So I believe Jo Johnson is saying what I said about a month ago.
    We need another public vote with 3 options.
    1 Choose the deal we are offered.
    2 No deal & we go it alone.
    3 Remain.

    Personally, I don't think it's too late to take this as a lesson learnt & vote Remain.
    I do not trust any of our politicians of any colour to now make a success of an alternative.
    Under the circumstances the only sensible option is to Remain.
    As you were.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46155403

    What if you end up with 34% for one option and 33% for the other two?
    Do what @Chizz (I think it was) suggested and use a transferable vote option. People indicate their 1st and 2nd choices, and the votes with the least popular option as 1st choice get redistributed to the 2nd choice on each ballot paper.
    so not only are we to have a 2nd vote we are also going down the STV route, which is completly against our usual voting system & alien to 3/4 (or is that 1/2 plus a 1/4 ) of the population.

    crack on guys !
  • Chizz
    Chizz Posts: 28,342
    golfaddick said:

    aliwibble said:

    se9addick said:

    Covered End said:

    So I believe Jo Johnson is saying what I said about a month ago.
    We need another public vote with 3 options.
    1 Choose the deal we are offered.
    2 No deal & we go it alone.
    3 Remain.

    Personally, I don't think it's too late to take this as a lesson learnt & vote Remain.
    I do not trust any of our politicians of any colour to now make a success of an alternative.
    Under the circumstances the only sensible option is to Remain.
    As you were.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46155403

    What if you end up with 34% for one option and 33% for the other two?
    Do what @Chizz (I think it was) suggested and use a transferable vote option. People indicate their 1st and 2nd choices, and the votes with the least popular option as 1st choice get redistributed to the 2nd choice on each ballot paper.
    so not only are we to have a 2nd vote we are also going down the STV route, which is completly against our usual voting system & alien to 3/4 (or is that 1/2 plus a 1/4 ) of the population.

    crack on guys !
    Do you have a better method of instructing the Government as to which of the three options they should proceed with? Or are you monumentally relaxed at the prospect of leaving everything up to the competence of the present Cabinet?
  • aliwibble
    aliwibble Posts: 26,438
    edited November 2018
    golfaddick said:

    aliwibble said:

    se9addick said:

    Covered End said:

    So I believe Jo Johnson is saying what I said about a month ago.
    We need another public vote with 3 options.
    1 Choose the deal we are offered.
    2 No deal & we go it alone.
    3 Remain.

    Personally, I don't think it's too late to take this as a lesson learnt & vote Remain.
    I do not trust any of our politicians of any colour to now make a success of an alternative.
    Under the circumstances the only sensible option is to Remain.
    As you were.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46155403

    What if you end up with 34% for one option and 33% for the other two?
    Do what @Chizz (I think it was) suggested and use a transferable vote option. People indicate their 1st and 2nd choices, and the votes with the least popular option as 1st choice get redistributed to the 2nd choice on each ballot paper.
    so not only are we to have a 2nd vote we are also going down the STV route, which is completly against our usual voting system & alien to 3/4 (or is that 1/2 plus a 1/4 ) of the population.

    crack on guys !
    Well technically it's Supplementary Vote, which has been used for the various mayoral and police and crime commissioner elections in recent years, so it's hardly that alien a concept in much of the country. The Scots and the Northern Irish shouldn't have trouble getting their heads around it, given it's a truncated version of STV, so it's only the Welsh who may not have come across it before as they use Additional Member voting for the assembly iirc.

    And seriously is it really so hard to work out what to do with a ballot paper that looks something like this: 
    
                            --------------------------------------------------- 
                           |     Mark an X below     |     Mark an X below     |
                           | against your 1st choice | against your 2nd choice |
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| LEAVE with agreed deal   |                         |                         |
|--------------------------|-------------------------|-------------------------|
| LEAVE with no deal       |                         |                         |
|--------------------------|-------------------------|-------------------------|
| REMAIN in the EU         |                         |                         |
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    (Knowing my luck the ASCII art will look horrible on people's phones, but I can't be arsed to faff about with paint at this time of night)
  • Rothko
    Rothko Posts: 18,813
    PragueAddick said:

    Could have selected from 20 similar tweets to this.

    This bloke has it right

  • Huskaris
    Huskaris Posts: 9,854
    I know many on here want a second vote, but does anyone, given the stance at the top of both main political parties, think we will actually get one? At any point in say, the next 6 months to 3 years? ie before Brexit occurs.
  • McBobbin
    McBobbin Posts: 12,052
    Huskaris said:

    I know many on here want a second vote, but does anyone, given the stance at the top of both main political parties, think we will actually get one? At any point in say, the next 6 months to 3 years? ie before Brexit occurs.

    No. I've no idea what will happen, but can't see a second vote happening
  • se9addick
    se9addick Posts: 32,057
    McBobbin said:

    Huskaris said:

    I know many on here want a second vote, but does anyone, given the stance at the top of both main political parties, think we will actually get one? At any point in say, the next 6 months to 3 years? ie before Brexit occurs.

    No. I've no idea what will happen, but can't see a second vote happening
    What would the process for a second vote be? Would one MP need to be brave enough to propose it to Parliament and then they vote on it?
  • CharltonMadrid
    CharltonMadrid Posts: 5,091
    I still think the most likely outcome is that the UK leaves with no deal and then ends up applying to rejoin in around eight to ten years. Then the whole episode is looked back on as a very strange and slightly embarrassing part of British history, with the key players viewed as among the most incompetent leaders (and opposition) ever.
  • Bournemouth Addick
    Bournemouth Addick Posts: 16,284
    CharltonMadrid said:

    I still think the most likely outcome is that the UK leaves with no deal and then ends up applying to rejoin in around eight to ten years. Then the whole episode is looked back on as a very strange and slightly embarrassing part of British history, with the key players viewed as among the most incompetent leaders (and opposition) ever.

    I agree with the outcome but think the timescale will be much longer. 8-10 years won't be long enough for the those behind Brexit and their supporters in the press to distance themselves from the mess they will have created. I just can't see the Daily Mail and this generation of its readers accepting a situation where they will have to recognise they called it wrong in 2016 and as result are willing to suck it up and apply to rejoin which will probably mean moving towards the euro over the pound.

    It's the same reason I'd have no confidence in Remain winning a second referendum. Maybe the demographics would have an affect I suppose.

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  • PragueAddick
    PragueAddick Posts: 22,161
    Rothko said:

    PragueAddick said:

    Could have selected from 20 similar tweets to this.

    This bloke has it right

    Yes, I think he does. Relative of yours? :-)

    Speaking of relatives, it's come to something when the brother of Boris -effing - Johnson shows more integrity, leadership and coherence than the Leader of the Opposition.

    Barking Britain.




  • Huskaris
    Huskaris Posts: 9,854
    Who knows, if Boris thinks it would help his career, he might become a remainer too and call for a second referendum.
  • seth plum
    seth plum Posts: 53,448
    golfaddick said:

    aliwibble said:

    se9addick said:

    Covered End said:

    So I believe Jo Johnson is saying what I said about a month ago.
    We need another public vote with 3 options.
    1 Choose the deal we are offered.
    2 No deal & we go it alone.
    3 Remain.

    Personally, I don't think it's too late to take this as a lesson learnt & vote Remain.
    I do not trust any of our politicians of any colour to now make a success of an alternative.
    Under the circumstances the only sensible option is to Remain.
    As you were.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46155403

    What if you end up with 34% for one option and 33% for the other two?
    Do what @Chizz (I think it was) suggested and use a transferable vote option. People indicate their 1st and 2nd choices, and the votes with the least popular option as 1st choice get redistributed to the 2nd choice on each ballot paper.
    so not only are we to have a 2nd vote we are also going down the STV route, which is completly against our usual voting system & alien to 3/4 (or is that 1/2 plus a 1/4 ) of the population.

    crack on guys !
    Except the voting system in Mayoral and council elections, and for MEP's which are different from FPTP.
  • seth plum
    seth plum Posts: 53,448
    So the latest bit is that May will have a border in the Irish Sea but get it past Arlene by calling it a 'flexible hem' or something.
  • Chaz Hill
    Chaz Hill Posts: 5,217
    seth plum said:

    golfaddick said:

    aliwibble said:

    se9addick said:

    Covered End said:

    So I believe Jo Johnson is saying what I said about a month ago.
    We need another public vote with 3 options.
    1 Choose the deal we are offered.
    2 No deal & we go it alone.
    3 Remain.

    Personally, I don't think it's too late to take this as a lesson learnt & vote Remain.
    I do not trust any of our politicians of any colour to now make a success of an alternative.
    Under the circumstances the only sensible option is to Remain.
    As you were.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46155403

    What if you end up with 34% for one option and 33% for the other two?
    Do what @Chizz (I think it was) suggested and use a transferable vote option. People indicate their 1st and 2nd choices, and the votes with the least popular option as 1st choice get redistributed to the 2nd choice on each ballot paper.
    so not only are we to have a 2nd vote we are also going down the STV route, which is completly against our usual voting system & alien to 3/4 (or is that 1/2 plus a 1/4 ) of the population.

    crack on guys !
    Except the voting system in Mayoral and council elections, and for MEP's which are different from FPTP.
    Poor golfie, he really is CL’s very own Dominic Rabb 😊
  • seth plum
    seth plum Posts: 53,448
    Chaz Hill said:

    seth plum said:

    golfaddick said:

    aliwibble said:

    se9addick said:

    Covered End said:

    So I believe Jo Johnson is saying what I said about a month ago.
    We need another public vote with 3 options.
    1 Choose the deal we are offered.
    2 No deal & we go it alone.
    3 Remain.

    Personally, I don't think it's too late to take this as a lesson learnt & vote Remain.
    I do not trust any of our politicians of any colour to now make a success of an alternative.
    Under the circumstances the only sensible option is to Remain.
    As you were.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46155403

    What if you end up with 34% for one option and 33% for the other two?
    Do what @Chizz (I think it was) suggested and use a transferable vote option. People indicate their 1st and 2nd choices, and the votes with the least popular option as 1st choice get redistributed to the 2nd choice on each ballot paper.
    so not only are we to have a 2nd vote we are also going down the STV route, which is completly against our usual voting system & alien to 3/4 (or is that 1/2 plus a 1/4 ) of the population.

    crack on guys !
    Except the voting system in Mayoral and council elections, and for MEP's which are different from FPTP.
    Poor golfie, he really is CL’s very own Dominic Rabb 😊
    I would guess that Golfie even has a higher IQ than Rabb, and is more honest and straightforward. I think Golfie is wrong but driven by emotion, Rabb is wrong because he is a snide Tory duplicitous self serving moron.
    Keep a careful eye on Rabb he is on the way up.
  • Chaz Hill
    Chaz Hill Posts: 5,217
    seth plum said:

    Chaz Hill said:

    seth plum said:

    golfaddick said:

    aliwibble said:

    se9addick said:

    Covered End said:

    So I believe Jo Johnson is saying what I said about a month ago.
    We need another public vote with 3 options.
    1 Choose the deal we are offered.
    2 No deal & we go it alone.
    3 Remain.

    Personally, I don't think it's too late to take this as a lesson learnt & vote Remain.
    I do not trust any of our politicians of any colour to now make a success of an alternative.
    Under the circumstances the only sensible option is to Remain.
    As you were.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46155403

    What if you end up with 34% for one option and 33% for the other two?
    Do what @Chizz (I think it was) suggested and use a transferable vote option. People indicate their 1st and 2nd choices, and the votes with the least popular option as 1st choice get redistributed to the 2nd choice on each ballot paper.
    so not only are we to have a 2nd vote we are also going down the STV route, which is completly against our usual voting system & alien to 3/4 (or is that 1/2 plus a 1/4 ) of the population.

    crack on guys !
    Except the voting system in Mayoral and council elections, and for MEP's which are different from FPTP.
    Poor golfie, he really is CL’s very own Dominic Rabb 😊
    I would guess that Golfie even has a higher IQ than Rabb, and is more honest and straightforward. I think Golfie is wrong but driven by emotion, Rabb is wrong because he is a snide Tory duplicitous self serving moron.
    Keep a careful eye on Rabb he is on the way up.
    Well I certainly agree about Rabb. Always has been a self serving s..t. Ironic that his constuency voted clearly to Remain, but it seems their MP knows better for personal political gain. Not the only one obviously but up there with the best.
  • Stu_of_Kunming
    Stu_of_Kunming Posts: 17,118
    Rothko said:

    PragueAddick said:

    Could have selected from 20 similar tweets to this.

    This bloke has it right

    I wonder what @MuttleyCAFC think about this.
  • bobmunro
    bobmunro Posts: 20,853
    seth plum said:

    Chaz Hill said:

    seth plum said:

    golfaddick said:

    aliwibble said:

    se9addick said:

    Covered End said:

    So I believe Jo Johnson is saying what I said about a month ago.
    We need another public vote with 3 options.
    1 Choose the deal we are offered.
    2 No deal & we go it alone.
    3 Remain.

    Personally, I don't think it's too late to take this as a lesson learnt & vote Remain.
    I do not trust any of our politicians of any colour to now make a success of an alternative.
    Under the circumstances the only sensible option is to Remain.
    As you were.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46155403

    What if you end up with 34% for one option and 33% for the other two?
    Do what @Chizz (I think it was) suggested and use a transferable vote option. People indicate their 1st and 2nd choices, and the votes with the least popular option as 1st choice get redistributed to the 2nd choice on each ballot paper.
    so not only are we to have a 2nd vote we are also going down the STV route, which is completly against our usual voting system & alien to 3/4 (or is that 1/2 plus a 1/4 ) of the population.

    crack on guys !
    Except the voting system in Mayoral and council elections, and for MEP's which are different from FPTP.
    Poor golfie, he really is CL’s very own Dominic Rabb 😊
    I would guess that Golfie even has a higher IQ than Rabb, and is more honest and straightforward. I think Golfie is wrong but driven by emotion, Rabb is wrong because he is a snide Tory duplicitous self serving moron.
    Keep a careful eye on Rabb he is on the way up.
    Your description of Rabb is both accurate and the basis of the perfect profile for a Tory leader.
  • seriously_red
    seriously_red Posts: 5,741
    Now that we have arrived close to a BINO deal, many are asking the question: "why bother leaving?" The paradox is that the "no deal" agenda could only be defeated by BINO and not remain. So once a deal is agreed with the EU, it is then politically possible to consider whether that's sub optimal compared to Remain.

    From this perspective we might ask why May couldn't move faster on cutting a deal but that's to ignore the fact that her opponents then would have had more time to take her out. Perhaps we have arrived at the right place at the right time, perhaps a few weeks late? But either way, Parliament now has a clear choice, especially now that we have Jo Johnson's resignation and the accompnying announcement. For we can expect him and others to table an amendment to a Brexit deal bill calling for a "people's vote" on the deal. And for that vote to have three options as others have suggested. There is certainly cross party support for this and surely a vote can be organised within three months?

    This then becomes an opportunity for the opposition which is clearly a remain party to make a choice. It's either support May's proposed deal or give the final say to the electorate via support for a people's vote amendment. And they have always anticipated that this time would come. Naturally they prefer to bring the government down but is that possible?

    No ideas on the arithmetic in Parliament but the commentators and current affairs programmes will surely have a guide soon enough. Those who maintain that Corbyn should have led the fight against the referendum are ignoring the subtleties of the positioning and the obvious conclusions to be drawn from the 2017 election result. Labour have chosen to give May all the space she needed to come up with a deal and allowed for various ministers to resign as they find that they cannot support BINO or vassel state option. Labour have been clear on the Customs Union but ambiguous on the rest - they have simply waited for May and her Cabinet to reach this point where we can all see an outline deal.
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