Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday

killerandflash · February 1

Really impressive that Stockport lost their top scorer, but have managed to win 4 in a row.

stoneroses19 · February 2

10-game form table including us and those around.

Orient - 23 points

Us - 21 points
Stockport - 17 points
Barnsley - 16 points
Huddersfield - 13 points
Bolton - 13 points
Reading - 13 points

MuttleyCAFC · February 2

I looked at the betting odds and the bookies seem to think we will make the top six.

eaststandmike · February 2

killerandflash said:

Really impressive that Stockport lost their top scorer, but have managed to win 4 in a row.

WHAT!!!!!

This can’t be right, I was told by all the football experts on here they would fall down the table like a stone once he returns to Villa

Must be the same people telling me that Wrexham will not finish above us, FACT!

MuttleyCAFC · February 2

eaststandmike said:

killerandflash said:

Really impressive that Stockport lost their top scorer, but have managed to win 4 in a row.

WHAT!!!!!

This can’t be right, I was told by all the football experts on here they would fall down the table like a stone once he returns to Villa

Must be the same people telling me that Wrexham will not finish above us, FACT!

They still may do this. I think neither Stockport nor Orient will make the top six but that is just my opinion.

BigRedEvil · February 2

Considering at the start of December the season looked dead already, to be right back in the mix is a massive bonus

NabySarr · February 2

killerandflash said:

MuttleyCAFC said:

Huddersfield right in it now so we have three places to play for as it stands. A number of other clubs being in and around it is a challenge but we have as much chance and anyone.

1 point from the last 4 games is a puzzling slump. Maybe losing Helik has been more significant than the 2 strikers they signed?

One of the strikers, Joe Taylor, is already injured and out for a while

Masterbrew · February 3

I've updated my projection from a few weeks ago. Quick summary is that we have made no significant gain on the top two, fifth place could be on nearly 80 points so we will really need getting on for two points a game to avoid goal difference coming into play - we are at least seven goals down on all the teams above us.

01/02/2025

P

Pts

PPG

Projected

PPG req

Birmingham City

27

63

2.33

107

3.57

Wycombe Wanderers

29

59

2.03

94

2.81

Wrexham

29

55

1.90

87

2.46

Stockport County

29

50

1.72

79

2.02

Huddersfield Town

28

48

1.71

79

1.99

Leyton Orient

28

44

1.57

72

1.63

Charlton Athletic

28

44

1.57

72

Reading

28

44

1.57

72

1.63

Bolton Wanderers

29

44

1.52

70

1.49

Barnsley

29

43

1.48

68

1.40

Stevenage Town

27

40

1.48

68

1.40

golfaddick · February 4

Definitely not now. TC and/or Small could get injured before the month is out & that's our season over. They are the only 2 players who can create anything. Missed a big trick this past month.

Oh well.......roll on season 25/26 and lets see what the summer transfer window brings (will have to be a pacey RB as Small wont be here).

NabySarr · February 4

We will need some luck with injuries, but that’s the same for every team. If key players get injured then teams struggle, even at the top level look at Man City without rodri. If it wasn’t for a Lloyd Jones injury we’d be comfortably in the play off positions already. If Jones, Coventry, TC and Small stay fit then we will get in the play offs

CAFCsayer · February 4

Need to be very, very lucky with injuries now

MuttleyCAFC · February 4

Of course, when you need to make ground on teams a few points ahead of you, if you do the goal difference tends to move towards you with the points. I do agree, we probably have three players at the moment, we can't afford to get injured, TC, Small and Jones.

NabySarr · February 4

MuttleyCAFC said:

Of course, when you need to make ground on teams a few points ahead of you, if you do the goal difference tends to move towards you with the points. I do agree, we probably have three players at the moment, we can't afford to get injured, TC, Small and Jones.

I’d actually say Coventry could be the most important now

Now Ramsay is back, if Jones got injured Mitchell could play as the middle centre back with Ramsay on the right. Not as good as Jones but better than what we were doing earlier this season with no Ramsay available

TC and Small would be losses, but Godden and Leaburn could play up front together if TC was injured, and Ramsay could return to RWB if Small is injured. Again it’s obviously not as good as our first choice team but still ok enough to pick up points

If Coventry get injured we are in trouble. I don’t think a pairing of Docherty and Anderson is good enough

MuttleyCAFC · February 4

NabySarr said:

MuttleyCAFC said:

Of course, when you need to make ground on teams a few points ahead of you, if you do the goal difference tends to move towards you with the points. I do agree, we probably have three players at the moment, we can't afford to get injured, TC, Small and Jones.

I’d actually say Coventry could be the most important now

Now Ramsay is back, if Jones got injured Mitchell could play as the middle centre back with Ramsay on the right. Not as good as Jones but better than what we were doing earlier this season with no Ramsay available

TC and Small would be losses, but Godden and Leaburn could play up front together if TC was injured, and Ramsay could return to RWB if Small is injured. Again it’s obviously not as good as our first choice team but still ok enough to pick up points

If Coventry get injured we are in trouble. I don’t think a pairing of Docherty and Anderson is good enough

Good point about Coventry and I should have included him. Maybe Docherty too. I just think a big reason we are winning games is TC and Small. And Jones is suring up the defence. Would we win games without them, yes, but probably not enough games.

Chizz · February 8

Scoham · February 8

17 more wins and we won’t need them.

ForeverAddickted · February 8

Birmingham next weekend is the big one now.

Thats the only one I'm truly nervous about, and fully expect three dropped points - Anything from that, and think we'll be unstoppable like in 2018/19 again

Addick Addict · February 8

I mentioned, prior to the Shrewsbury game that, given that most of the teams coming to us are in the lower half, we needed to make the Valley a fortress and if we could win nine and draw two of our home games then we should pick up enough points away too in order to make the play offs. Since then we've won 2-0, 1-0 and 2-0 at home (and drawn at Blackpool when we should have won). Only Birmingham have a better home defensive record than us and the fact that Stevenage didn't have a single shot on target is testament to that. Nothing needs to change.

Valley11 · February 8

What a crazy but brilliant turnaround. Incredible to think if we win our game in hand over them, we’ll be 7 points ahead of Barnsley. That looked impossible 2 months ago.

Callumcafc · February 8

28 points needed from 17 games to get to the 75 mark.

We have 25 from our last 12 fixtures.

Required…
10 wins (7 losses)
9 wins, 1 draw (7 losses)
8 wins, 4 draws (5 losses)
7 wins, 7 draws (3 losses)
6 wins, 10 draws (1 loss)

blackpool72 · February 8

Keep winning our home games and anything is possible

stonemuse · February 8

stonemuse said:

No doubt whatsoever

Believe 😀

ShootersHillGuru · February 8

I’ve been consistently saying not but I’m just beginning to hope. My heart is saying maybe but head still thinks we’ll just miss out.

Bostonaddick · February 8

We definitely have a more difficult schedule to close the season compared to some of our playoff competitors. Not too many matches left with the bottom third of the league. We are going to need to be beatsome quality sides to make it happen.

stoneroses19 · February 8

5-game form table including us and those around.

Stockport - 15 points
Us - 13 points

Orient - 10 points
Bolton - 7 points
Huddersfield - 4 points
Reading - 4 points
Barnsley - 1 point

Manic_mania · February 8

Bostonaddick said:

We definitely have a more difficult schedule to close the season compared to some of our playoff competitors. Not too many matches left with the bottom third of the league. We are going to need to be beatsome quality sides to make it happen.

I actually did a bit of a deep dive the other week just in the middle of this block of 5 games that we were discussing as an opportunity - looking at the run-ins for teams that were around us (at the time) although I mainly was looking at the bottom 6 but we all had about 6-8 games left against them. I will admit the picture has potentially changed slightly as I was looking at Mansfield, Bolton, Stockport, Orient us and Barnsley at the time, so not sure on Huddersfield for example who were at the time seemingly out of reach.

I decided against posting it here because I thought it made me look a bit sad and statto-y! I kind of wish I had saved it now!!

shine166 · February 8

Bostonaddick said:

We definitely have a more difficult schedule to close the season compared to some of our playoff competitors. Not too many matches left with the bottom third of the league. We are going to need to be beatsome quality sides to make it happen.

The other way of looking at it, is we can take control of our own destiny. Beating the lower teams is great, but beating the better teams has far more impact.

ForeverAddickted · February 8

So... From the Play-Off teams this weekend

Stockport won (thats annoying), but they beat Barnsley (Great)
Huddersfield drew (So we're two behind them now), with Reading (who are now two behind us)
Blackpool drew
Rotherham lost.

Leyton Orient didnt play.

Cant ask more than that from the rest of the weekend

Although Bolton have potentially won it in injury time against Crawley so remain level on points with us, but we ironically have the better Goal Difference, yet we've a game in hand against them.

kinveachyaddick · February 8

Other results going our way generally

cafc_se7 · February 8

I genuinely believe this thread now needs to be changed to can we make the automatics!

Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday

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