Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday

ForeverAddickted

se9addick said:

fenaddick said:

The Mendez graph looks tasty

I mean, if by “lovely” you mean missing out on the playoffs!

I mean there is no guarantee that 75-pts will be enough for the Play-Offs... or 72-pts might be enough...

fenaddick

se9addick said:

fenaddick said:

The Mendez graph looks tasty

I mean, if by “lovely” you mean missing out on the playoffs!

That's why I didn't say lovely!

SELR_addicks

First time after a period of games where I've thought that we could just about manage it. 

Obviously need to keep this form up for the rest of the season.

LargeAddick

Top two looks a tad beyond us. 3rd to 6th is perm 4 from 8. Need to not lose when we play those around us, wins would be nice, then win the majority of the rest. It's in our hands and we have the bit between our teeth. COYA.

Exiled_Addick

SELR_addicks said:

First time after a period of games where I've thought that we could just about manage it. 

Obviously need to keep this form up for the rest of the season.

Actually, we don't. We have 21 points from the last 10 games or 2.1 pts per game. That'd be another 39 or 40 points at that rate over the rest of the season. 83 points would have us closer to 4th than 6th. We need to keep this going for a few more weeks to get fully back into those top 6 places, and then we can hopefully come off the gas a little and maintain our play-off spot for the rest of the year. I don't think we'll be able to maintain over 2 points per game for the rest of the season, so we need to make hay while the sun shines.

jakecafc

We have to keep these runs going because I think it'll be higher than 75 points this year.

ElfsborgAddick

seriously_red said:

Scoham said:

I think we’ll miss out but won’t be far behind.

I don’t have much confidence we’ll make enough of the right signings, keep our key players and avoid too many injuries.

The summer could be different but we could be without Jones, Leaburn and Small by then which only makes building on what we’ve got in place even harder.

No signings as yet, but no first XI player departures and no injuries whatsoever. Our new director of performance has clearly done wonders compared to previous seasons!

Your prediction of a "near miss" was on 5th January. Since then we've had two wins and a loss in the league, albeit the wins were by fine margins. Wonder how you see things today?

For anybody interested, this site predicts a near miss (before tonight's game) https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-league-one/table

11,149 advertised gate tonight, makes it around 8k bums on seats.

You carry on trotting out your usual wumming garbage.

se9addick

Exiled_Addick said:

SELR_addicks said:

First time after a period of games where I've thought that we could just about manage it. 

Obviously need to keep this form up for the rest of the season.

Actually, we don't. We have 21 points from the last 10 games or 2.1 pts per game. That'd be another 39 or 40 points at that rate over the rest of the season. 83 points would have us closer to 4th than 6th. We need to keep this going for a few more weeks to get fully back into those top 6 places, and then we can hopefully come off the gas a little and maintain our play-off spot for the rest of the year. I don't think we'll be able to maintain over 2 points per game for the rest of the season, so we need to make hay while the sun shines.

It’s not about just getting into the playoffs, it’s about winning them. For that having as much momentum as possible would be beneficial. 

Manic_mania

jakecafc said:

We have to keep these runs going because I think it'll be higher than 75 points this year.

I think there's still so much football left to play and it will still end up levelling out to the average - the top 10 (including us) have all got 7 or 8 games against fellow top 10 sides and they will all take points off each other. You only have to look at this weekends fixtures - Stockport/Barnsley  Bolton/Reading- they can't all take 3 points. It'll be like that every week to til the end of the season. 

I'd also add, not to do with my previous point as such - there's always that 1 team that seemingly comes from nowhere and surges up the table late- this weekends opponents Blackpool have very quietly been picking up points against the top teams recently and have the makings of putting a run together as well. Hopefully we can put paid to that Saturday!

killerandflash

ForeverAddickted said:

kinveachyaddick said:

Looks like up to 2nd is up for grabs 

Shame that Barnsley didnt hold on for the win

We were 12-pts behind Wycombe with a game in hand, until Wycombe pulled it back and made it 2-1

Yes, a shame about that late Wycombe winner which stretches their gap in the automatic places.

But below that it's looking very interesting, with some of the fancied teams stuttering a bit. 

Wrexham - 4 points out of the last 15
Huddersfield - 5 points out of the last 15
Barnsley (and Reading) - 3 losses in a row.

Croydon

It's our ability to get results away from home that makes me think we'll just miss out.

Birmingham, Stockport, Wycombe and Wrexham away left to do. Orient away has become a huge game as well. 

Callumcafc

Points total for teams in 7th last decade plus seasons going back to Powell’s team in 11-12 (ie the points total you needed more than to get into the playoffs)

74, 76, 80, 74, 72, 68, 72, 74, 65, 67, 71, 73

75 would’ve been enough in all but two seasons. 77 would’ve been enough in all but one season.

seriously_red

Callumcafc said:

Points total for teams in 7th last decade plus seasons going back to Powell’s team in 11-12 (ie the points total you needed more than to get into the playoffs)

74, 76, 80, 74, 72, 68, 72, 74, 65, 67, 71, 73

75 would’ve been enough in all but two seasons. 77 would’ve been enough in all but one season.

It's very hard to predict the exact total at this stage seeing as Leyton Orient are flying and we're not far behind.

Opta Analyst now suggest Stockport and Leyton Orient to finish on 72.5 points in 5th and 6th with us in 8th on 70.

How much do we believe that we can repeat our last ten games over the next ten? Two points per game from here on in will give us our best finish in five seasons!

Braziliance

It's really hard to say, unfortunately, Leyton Orient are bloody flying and I can see them easily getting top6 at this rate. They're pumping teams. 

I think we will be a few points off or just about make it. That run of 13 games just done us in, but fair play for turning it around. 

It's exciting either way.

hoof_it_up_to_benty

Orient were down in 21st at end of November - undefeated since then.

So many teams in contention - Stevenage in 15th are only six behind us with a game in hand.

stoneroses19

North Lower Neil

Orient playing Stockport next aren't they?  Good that at least one of them will drop points.

stoneroses19

North Lower Neil said:

Orient playing Stockport next aren't they?  Good that at least one of them will drop points.

Also, Reading v Bolton. Teams around us must drop points next game. 

CAFC_boi

Also looking at the final day fixtures (if it comes down to that) Stockport are away at Wycombe and Leyton Orient are away at Huddersfield whilst we are at home to Burton Albion - so very favourable if we’re in with a shot on the final day. 

ForeverAddickted

stoneroses19 said:

North Lower Neil said:

Orient playing Stockport next aren't they?  Good that at least one of them will drop points.

Also, Reading v Bolton. Teams around us must drop points next game. 

Our away match at Blackpool won't be easy either, we tend to struggle ay Bloomfield Road it seems. So we might join in with the "dropping points" theme 

stoneroses19

ForeverAddickted said:

stoneroses19 said:

North Lower Neil said:

Orient playing Stockport next aren't they?  Good that at least one of them will drop points.

Also, Reading v Bolton. Teams around us must drop points next game. 

Our away match at Blackpool won't be easy either, we tend to struggle ay Bloomfield Road it seems. So we might join in with the "dropping points" theme 

Well that's a negative thought 😉 

But agreed, won't be as simple as last nights game. 

fenlandaddick

seriously_red said:

Callumcafc said:

Points total for teams in 7th last decade plus seasons going back to Powell’s team in 11-12 (ie the points total you needed more than to get into the playoffs)

74, 76, 80, 74, 72, 68, 72, 74, 65, 67, 71, 73

75 would’ve been enough in all but two seasons. 77 would’ve been enough in all but one season.

It's very hard to predict the exact total at this stage seeing as Leyton Orient are flying and we're not far behind.

Opta Analyst now suggest Stockport and Leyton Orient to finish on 72.5 points in 5th and 6th with us in 8th on 70.

How much do we believe that we can repeat our last ten games over the next ten? Two points per game from here on in will give us our best finish in five seasons!

I think they may need to revisit their analysis.

Athletico Charlton

In our recent wins we have beaten 4 very poor teams Northampton, Shrewsbury, Rovers and Cambridge; an out of sorts Bolton and a Kone-less Wycombe.  You can only beat who is in front of you and we are on a great run. 
But the next few games will show if we are really up for the challenge as Blackpool, Stevenage, Birmingham are all teams in reasonable form and no push overs.  Start to beat these teams regularly and we will make it.

9goalswentpastperry

CAFC_boi said:

Also looking at the final day fixtures (if it comes down to that) Stockport are away at Wycombe and Leyton Orient are away at Huddersfield whilst we are at home to Burton Albion - so very favourable if we’re in with a shot on the final day. 

Hard to predict at this stage. It's possible Wycombe will already be promoted so playing them becomes a lot easier. And Huddersfield will likely be ensconced in the playoffs and resting players for them. Burton have found form so could be fighting for their lives on the last day. Who knows ?

We could get lucky and our last two tough away games could look very different if Wycombe are already up and Wrexham can't make the top two nor fall out of the top six.

It's just great to have these permutations to consider as it means we have exciting times ahead for once.

fenaddick

Athletico Charlton said:

In our recent wins we have beaten 4 very poor teams Northampton, Shrewsbury, Rovers and Cambridge; an out of sorts Bolton and a Kone-less Wycombe.  You can only beat who is in front of you and we are on a great run. 
But the next few games will show if we are really up for the challenge as Blackpool, Stevenage, Birmingham are all teams in reasonable form and no push overs.  Start to beat these teams regularly and we will make it.

I see your point but sounds very similar to the whole “Liverpool haven’t played anyone good yet” narrative from the first half of the PL season. NJ is very good at making teams look more average than they are 

arny23394

If we get a couple of reinforcements there is absolutely no reason why we can’t get in and win the play offs - this league is astoundingly shit. Orient played an 83 year old Darren Pratley and a useless Sean Clare in CM together last night & won 6-2 ffs.

Hertsseasider

Saturday will be a good test of our respective chances. Safe trip up for those travelling

https://avftt.co.uk/index.php?threads/play-offs.59523/#post-1527289

PrincessFiona

se9addick said:

Exiled_Addick said:

SELR_addicks said:

First time after a period of games where I've thought that we could just about manage it. 

Obviously need to keep this form up for the rest of the season.

Actually, we don't. We have 21 points from the last 10 games or 2.1 pts per game. That'd be another 39 or 40 points at that rate over the rest of the season. 83 points would have us closer to 4th than 6th. We need to keep this going for a few more weeks to get fully back into those top 6 places, and then we can hopefully come off the gas a little and maintain our play-off spot for the rest of the year. I don't think we'll be able to maintain over 2 points per game for the rest of the season, so we need to make hay while the sun shines.

It’s not about just getting into the playoffs, it’s about winning them. For that having as much momentum as possible would be beneficial. 

But are we anywhere near the level needed for the Championship? Surely just by getting to the playoffs or even just missing out demonstrates to the owners that we nearly have a squad for the Championship?
And then hopefully they will see it is worth that extra investment, as so nearly there.

If we finished half way or lower, they might consider the investment needed just too much

carly burn

carly burn said:

Next 4 league fixtures should tell us. All very winnable.
Take 10 points from them and I will start to believe.

 So we actually took nine from when I posted this. Not a bad haul at all.

Blackpool away for me is also a big litmus test. Only lost once at home since October and that was against Birmingham.
The 3 away games they've lost in that period we're against Wrexham,Orient and Bolton, and apart from Orient, only by one goal.
They're a tough nut.
Massive test.

charlton_hero

arny23394 said:

If we get a couple of reinforcements there is absolutely no reason why we can’t get in and win the play offs - this league is astoundingly shit. Orient played an 83 year old Darren Pratley and a useless Sean Clare in CM together last night & won 6-2 ffs.

Orient look as though they've done some shrewd business this window. The young lad they signed on a perm from Swansea scored a hattrick last night. Markanday also got on the score sheet.