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Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday

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  • ShootersHillGuru
    ShootersHillGuru Posts: 50,627
    Mathematically we’re in with a shout but I still don’t see any real ability to break teams down and it’s that creative midfielder we lack. I can’t see although I hope that’ll be remedied this week but its hard in January. Still think we’re fragile as the Rotherham game highlights and is there anyone that would be completely shocked if we lost to Bristol Rovers on Tuesday. We have a core group of players now to build something around and I think that’s our immediate future. Building something for next season as I think we’ll finish around 10th this term.
  • Croydon
    Croydon Posts: 12,735
    First time since early on in the season that I've thought we could actually make top 6.

    Which inevitably means we'll lose our next 4 and be out of it by March
  • SantaClaus
    SantaClaus Posts: 7,658
    edited January 26
    If you'd asked me a few weeks ago how far off the playoffs we'd be at this point I'd have said 10+ points. It's astonishing that we're suddenly as close as we are. That said we're still lacking up front and I don't trust our keeper(s) but if those areas are addressed before the window closes we've as good a chance as anyone. 
  • Bostonaddick
    Bostonaddick Posts: 819
    If we bring in a very good attacking mid and upgrade at left center back,  there is outside chance.  I just don’t have faith that those players are available not to mention that jones only seems to like combative holding mid types and doesn’t seem to like creative flair type players
  • drawnablank
    drawnablank Posts: 775
    edited January 26
    This 5 game segment is so important and we’ve started it well with 3 points already secured. 1 down, 4 to go, 3 of them at home. 
    Maximise this period and it sets us up brilliantly for the next 5 game segment following this one!  
    Birmingham (a), Exeter (h), Leyton (a), Barnsley (h) & Stockport (a).
    Massive 6 weeks!!! 
  • carly burn
    carly burn Posts: 19,466
    edited January 26
    Still don't think we will. If we do it will be more through luck than judgement.
    I still have questions about Jone's tactical nous. When we're struggling to break teams down he rarely makes the changes to open them up. And I'm not just talking personnel. His in-game management really isn't the best.
  • fenaddick
    fenaddick Posts: 11,177
    For those who were 100% sure we wouldn’t reach them a few weeks ago would you consider us reaching the playoffs but not winning them a success? 
  • LargeAddick
    LargeAddick Posts: 32,589
    carly burn said:
    Still don't think we will. If we do it will be more through luck than judgement.
    I still have questions about Jone's tactical nous. When we're struggling to break teams down he rarely makes the changes to open them up. And I'm not just talking personnel. His in-game management really isn't the best.
    We were struggling to break Shrewsbury down yesterday, he made changes, we got the winner. It wasn’t pretty but who cares, we got the job done.
  • stoneroses19
    stoneroses19 Posts: 7,223
    carly burn said:
    Still don't think we will. If we do it will be more through luck than judgement.
    I still have questions about Jone's tactical nous. When we're struggling to break teams down he rarely makes the changes to open them up. And I'm not just talking personnel. His in-game management really isn't the best.
    No one in the league has gained more points from the 75th minute onward than us. Surely that says personnel changes, in-game management, fitness etc is all working well, and those things are in Jones control. 
  • carly burn
    carly burn Posts: 19,466
    LargeAddick said:
    carly burn said:
    Still don't think we will. If we do it will be more through luck than judgement.
    I still have questions about Jone's tactical nous. When we're struggling to break teams down he rarely makes the changes to open them up. And I'm not just talking personnel. His in-game management really isn't the best.
    We were struggling to break Shrewsbury down yesterday, he made changes, we got the winner. It wasn’t pretty but who cares, we got the job done.
    A game we easily could have lost even after the changes and almost did. We played exactly how they wanted us to play and even after the changes that wasn't addressed imo.

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  • Uboat
    Uboat Posts: 12,198
    fenaddick said:
    For those who were 100% sure we wouldn’t reach them a few weeks ago would you consider us reaching the playoffs but not winning them a success? 
    I’d call it progress, but not a success.  
  • Redmidland
    Redmidland Posts: 44,700
    A team every season always goes on a phenomenal run, why not us? It'll be tough but I'm hopeful we can sneak in. Depends who comes in this week, if anyone!
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,641
    edited January 26
    drawnablank said:
    This 5 game segment is so important and we’ve started it well with 3 points already secured. 1 down, 4 to go, 3 of them at home. 
    Maximise this period and it sets us up brilliantly for the next 5 game segment following this one!  
    Birmingham (a), Exeter (h), Leyton (a), Barnsley (h) & Stockport (a).
    Massive 6 weeks!!! 
    I think that's our season right there. Playing 3 of the teams we are fighting 5th & 6th spot with as well as an away game to the League champions (elect). We will know a lot more by early March.  


  • Manic_mania
    Manic_mania Posts: 2,262
    Redmidland said:
    A team every season always goes on a phenomenal run, why not us? It'll be tough but I'm hopeful we can sneak in. Depends who comes in this week, if anyone!
    The thing is we don't even really need to go on a phenomenal run like that because we are already well in touch. We just need consistency - 35 points out of 60. Win more than we draw, draw more than we lose. Simple innit! 
  • AndyG
    AndyG Posts: 5,911
    golfaddick said:
    drawnablank said:
    This 5 game segment is so important and we’ve started it well with 3 points already secured. 1 down, 4 to go, 3 of them at home. 
    Maximise this period and it sets us up brilliantly for the next 5 game segment following this one!  
    Birmingham (a), Exeter (h), Leyton (a), Barnsley (h) & Stockport (a).
    Massive 6 weeks!!! 
    I think that's our season right there. Playing 3 of the teams we are fighting 5th & 6th spot with as well as an away game to the League champions (elect). We will know a lot more by early March.  


    I agree Golfie that’s why we need to maximise the next few games because the ones after are really tough I think we will do well to get 5 points from those fixtures
  • Dazzler21
    Dazzler21 Posts: 51,360
    Heart Yes, Head No.
  • soapy_jones
    soapy_jones Posts: 21,358
    Still a "No" from me Bob!
  • NabySarr
    NabySarr Posts: 4,290
    Back to back defeats for Barnsley has opened it up a bit more now. 2 spots up for grabs 
  • Bolderhumphreyreid
    Bolderhumphreyreid Posts: 2,554
    Yeah.
  • MrOneLung
    MrOneLung Posts: 26,862
    We got a 96th minute winner against the team who are bottom of table at end of play. Just can’t see us being consistent enough to leapfrog five teams and stay there 


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  • charlton_hero
    charlton_hero Posts: 4,668
    I still don't think we're good enough. If we can bring in a bit of creativity/flair my mind might be changed. 
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,785
    edited January 26
    20 games to go

    12 wins
    11 wins, 2 draws
    10 wins, 5 draws
    9 wins, 8 draws
    8 wins, 11 draws

    Let’s say 10 wins is most realistic. Split the remaining fixtures into thirds.

    Seven easiest: Bristol R (H), Stevenage (H), Peterborough (H), Exeter (H), Wigan (H), Northampton (H), Burton (H)
    - we would probably need 5 wins out of this 7.

    Middle seven: Blackpool (A), Barnsley (H), Crawley (A), Peterborough (A), Huddersfield (H), Lincoln (H), Cambridge (A)
    - we probably need 3/4 wins out of this 7.

    Six hardest: Birmingham (A), Orient (A), Stockport (A), Mansfield (A), Wycombe (A), Wrexham (A)
    - if we pick up the required wins from the above groups, we need 1/2 wins out of this 6.

  • Six-a-bag-of-nuts
    Six-a-bag-of-nuts Posts: 8,127
    I think we are just as likely to pull off an amazing hard earned away win at Brum and then labour to a bunch of 0-0 draws against the "seven easiest".

  • Six-a-bag-of-nuts
    Six-a-bag-of-nuts Posts: 8,127
    I love that we have become tough to beat and that we have a resilience, a great team ethic, a steeliness about us and are building a little momentum.
    Thank God the turgid dogshite, the hoof it in the general direction of Ahadme, that we had to witness up as far as, I think, the first half against Mansfield now seem a thing of the past.
    Maybe a lot to do with having all our injured back.
    I still think we lack the guile and nous and attacking fluidity on a consistent enough basis to get us in or certainly through the play offs.
    But I am more optimistic than I was and at the very least now I will certainly enjoy watching us try
  • CoveredEnd1905
    CoveredEnd1905 Posts: 137
    carly burn said:
    Still don't think we will. If we do it will be more through luck than judgement.
    I still have questions about Jone's tactical nous. When we're struggling to break teams down he rarely makes the changes to open them up. And I'm not just talking personnel. His in-game management really isn't the best.
    Birmingham had our best striker for years and a fella they payed £15 million up front and we stopped them having a shot on target. Yes there's been some poor performances in that time but we've clearly turned a corner. We've also scored the most goals from the 80th minutes onwards than any team in the division. Think it's very harsh to criticise his in-game management
  • NabySarr
    NabySarr Posts: 4,290
    CoveredEnd1905 said:
    carly burn said:
    Still don't think we will. If we do it will be more through luck than judgement.
    I still have questions about Jone's tactical nous. When we're struggling to break teams down he rarely makes the changes to open them up. And I'm not just talking personnel. His in-game management really isn't the best.
    Birmingham had our best striker for years and a fella they payed £15 million up front and we stopped them having a shot on target. Yes there's been some poor performances in that time but we've clearly turned a corner. We've also scored the most goals from the 80th minutes onwards than any team in the division. Think it's very harsh to criticise his in-game management
    That Birmingham game should end all debate about Jones tactical nous. We had a game on the Tuesday night so he had probably 1 proper training day on the Thursday and probably a lighter Friday session. In that time he got us playing a completely different system and nullified the best team in the league 

    I would say his in-game flexibility and management is one of his strengths. Outside of the injury crisis poor run (where he didn’t have good options on the bench to use), he’s used his subs pretty well and shown he can switch formation to good effect. The Bolton game was the best example of this, changing formation and making a triple sub where each player made an impact and turned the game around 
  • se9addick
    se9addick Posts: 32,047
    fenaddick said:
    For those who were 100% sure we wouldn’t reach them a few weeks ago would you consider us reaching the playoffs but not winning them a success? 
    There’s no way that another season in League One could be considered a “success”. It would be better than last season, but that’s an incredibly low bar. 
  • Alwaysneil
    Alwaysneil Posts: 13,814
    Disappointing to get out thought by Evans mind. Not the first of our managers that's happened to though
  • CoveredEnd1905
    CoveredEnd1905 Posts: 137
    NabySarr said:
    CoveredEnd1905 said:
    carly burn said:
    Still don't think we will. If we do it will be more through luck than judgement.
    I still have questions about Jone's tactical nous. When we're struggling to break teams down he rarely makes the changes to open them up. And I'm not just talking personnel. His in-game management really isn't the best.
    Birmingham had our best striker for years and a fella they payed £15 million up front and we stopped them having a shot on target. Yes there's been some poor performances in that time but we've clearly turned a corner. We've also scored the most goals from the 80th minutes onwards than any team in the division. Think it's very harsh to criticise his in-game management
    That Birmingham game should end all debate about Jones tactical nous. We had a game on the Tuesday night so he had probably 1 proper training day on the Thursday and probably a lighter Friday session. In that time he got us playing a completely different system and nullified the best team in the league 

    I would say his in-game flexibility and management is one of his strengths. Outside of the injury crisis poor run (where he didn’t have good options on the bench to use), he’s used his subs pretty well and shown he can switch formation to good effect. The Bolton game was the best example of this, changing formation and making a triple sub where each player made an impact and turned the game around 
    I know Small is an attacking minded player anyway but the move to go back 4 with Small and TC on either wing may have won us the game on Saturday 
  • CoveredEnd1905
    CoveredEnd1905 Posts: 137
    edited January 27
    MrOneLung said:
    We got a 96th minute winner against the team who are bottom of table at end of play. Just can’t see us being consistent enough to leapfrog five teams and stay there 

    Ainsworth makes his teams very hard to beat. Not saying beating Shrewsbury 1-0 makes a huge statement but it's worth mentioning they have beat Birmingham and Wrexham under him 

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