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Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday

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  • NabySarr
    NabySarr Posts: 4,290

    I think this is quite a good visual way to look at our season and what we have left to play 

    The key to our success will be the home games against 15th-21st, and the 3 games against Stockport, Barnsley and Orient. Do well across those 10 games and we should make the top 6 

    Our fixtures are actually quite favourable, but that only means something if you can consistently beat the poor teams in this league. Looking at our remaining games: 

    3 home and 6 away against top half 
    7 home and 4 away against bottom half 

    More games against the bottom half and most of them are at home
  • seriously_red
    seriously_red Posts: 5,741



    NabySarr said:

    I think this is quite a good visual way to look at our season and what we have left to play 

    The key to our success will be the home games against 15th-21st, and the 3 games against Stockport, Barnsley and Orient. Do well across those 10 games and we should make the top 6 

    Our fixtures are actually quite favourable, but that only means something if you can consistently beat the poor teams in this league. Looking at our remaining games: 

    3 home and 6 away against top half 
    7 home and 4 away against bottom half 

    More games against the bottom half and most of them are at home


    Finishing top six is now a definite possibility. And one could almost argue probable if we win tomorrow night! Ignore the top four for now and the bookies are placing us fourth favourites in a field of seven clubs chasing 5th and 6th place. So that's eighth.

    Given the home fixtures that you've highlighted, those odds can easily improve with the following developments:
    B) Ramsay is now back and might start within weeks not months
    B) bringing in loan or perm options for attacking positions where we have little cover / could improve
    B) our competitors play each other
    B) We win our home games and our fluidity in possession (which looks like a 4-2-3-1 or even 3-4-3) continues to improve

    Let's see where we are in early February after the window shuts and every team has played a couple more games. Right now we need at around 35 points from our final 20 games.

    Our current form suggests that's not just possible but likely. I'm afraid that anybody offering certainty at this point either way is kinda missing the whole point!
  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 69,875
    A good chart that, thanks.

    Weird how the fixture list has worked out, but it means we have a series of home games which we will have a lot of possession and be expected to win, and a series of tough away games where we will presumably try and keep things tight and nick a goal.
  • ElfsborgAddick
    ElfsborgAddick Posts: 29,079
    edited January 27
    fenaddick said:
    For those who were 100% sure we wouldn’t reach them a few weeks ago would you consider us reaching the playoffs but not winning them a success? 
    It will not be a success, only an improvement on a very low bar of last season.
    However, should we reach the play-offs there will be lots of people here with egg on their face wanting Jones to be sacked after the Crawley home game.
    Jones needs to be given time, hopefully Scott gets the bullet and there is a change in financial clout for player recruitment next season.
  • se9addick
    se9addick Posts: 32,047
    NabySarr said:

    I think this is quite a good visual way to look at our season and what we have left to play 

    The key to our success will be the home games against 15th-21st, and the 3 games against Stockport, Barnsley and Orient. Do well across those 10 games and we should make the top 6 

    Our fixtures are actually quite favourable, but that only means something if you can consistently beat the poor teams in this league. Looking at our remaining games: 

    3 home and 6 away against top half 
    7 home and 4 away against bottom half 

    More games against the bottom half and most of them are at home
    That’s a really cool way to depict the table (maybe I’m just easily impressed!!).
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,785
    Lol. On that note, I have often wondered if folks lean on the pessimistic side so that they can at least have the mini-win of saying they were right even if the club is burning down around them at the same time…


  • Braziliance
    Braziliance Posts: 8,359
    edited January 27
    Callumcafc said:
    Lol. On that note, I have often wondered if folks lean on the pessimistic side so that they can at least have the mini-win of saying they were right even if the club is burning down around them at the same time…


    You'd have to be some sick freak to do so. I just tell it how it is, good or bad. A few weeks ago, no one would have been surprised if he got sacked, few weeks on, a fire has been lit, and now everyone is happy atm. That's football. I'd like to think there isn't a Charlton fan that would genuinely take some delight in us having a poor season for arguments sake. 

    I'd write him a personal apology if he can sort out the season, as we looked fucked with no way back after Crawley tbh.

    Happy to eat the humblest of pies and have rotten yolk on my head if we are promoted this season. 
  • Braziliance
    Braziliance Posts: 8,359
    se9addick said:
    NabySarr said:

    I think this is quite a good visual way to look at our season and what we have left to play 

    The key to our success will be the home games against 15th-21st, and the 3 games against Stockport, Barnsley and Orient. Do well across those 10 games and we should make the top 6 

    Our fixtures are actually quite favourable, but that only means something if you can consistently beat the poor teams in this league. Looking at our remaining games: 

    3 home and 6 away against top half 
    7 home and 4 away against bottom half 

    More games against the bottom half and most of them are at home
    That’s a really cool way to depict the table (maybe I’m just easily impressed!!).
    No it is good. NabySarr has a knack atm for bringing stats together and breaking things down. 

    Of course it doesn't change much as it is Charlton, but it's nice to know it's potentially well and truly in our hands after the next 4 games potentially, other results pending. 

    Cheers Nabbs
  • ElfsborgAddick
    ElfsborgAddick Posts: 29,079
    Braziliance said:
    se9addick said:
    NabySarr said:

    I think this is quite a good visual way to look at our season and what we have left to play 

    The key to our success will be the home games against 15th-21st, and the 3 games against Stockport, Barnsley and Orient. Do well across those 10 games and we should make the top 6 

    Our fixtures are actually quite favourable, but that only means something if you can consistently beat the poor teams in this league. Looking at our remaining games: 

    3 home and 6 away against top half 
    7 home and 4 away against bottom half 

    More games against the bottom half and most of them are at home
    That’s a really cool way to depict the table (maybe I’m just easily impressed!!).
    No it is good. NabySarr has a knack atm for bringing stats together and breaking things down. 

    Of course it doesn't change much as it is Charlton, but it's nice to know it's potentially well and truly in our hands after the next 4 games potentially, other results pending. 

    Cheers Nabbs
    Long live XG.

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  • Manic_mania
    Manic_mania Posts: 2,262
    NabySarr said:

    I think this is quite a good visual way to look at our season and what we have left to play 

    The key to our success will be the home games against 15th-21st, and the 3 games against Stockport, Barnsley and Orient. Do well across those 10 games and we should make the top 6 

    Our fixtures are actually quite favourable, but that only means something if you can consistently beat the poor teams in this league. Looking at our remaining games: 

    3 home and 6 away against top half 
    7 home and 4 away against bottom half 

    More games against the bottom half and most of them are at home
    How the fuck have I only just realised looking at this that we have only lost 1 home game all season!?
  • LargeAddick
    LargeAddick Posts: 32,589
    Manic_mania said:
    NabySarr said:

    I think this is quite a good visual way to look at our season and what we have left to play 

    The key to our success will be the home games against 15th-21st, and the 3 games against Stockport, Barnsley and Orient. Do well across those 10 games and we should make the top 6 

    Our fixtures are actually quite favourable, but that only means something if you can consistently beat the poor teams in this league. Looking at our remaining games: 

    3 home and 6 away against top half 
    7 home and 4 away against bottom half 

    More games against the bottom half and most of them are at home
    How the fuck have I only just realised looking at this that we have only lost 1 home game all season!?
    Two isn’t it? Blackpool and Crawley.
  • Athletico Charlton
    Athletico Charlton Posts: 14,280
    Manic_mania said:
    NabySarr said:

    I think this is quite a good visual way to look at our season and what we have left to play 

    The key to our success will be the home games against 15th-21st, and the 3 games against Stockport, Barnsley and Orient. Do well across those 10 games and we should make the top 6 

    Our fixtures are actually quite favourable, but that only means something if you can consistently beat the poor teams in this league. Looking at our remaining games: 

    3 home and 6 away against top half 
    7 home and 4 away against bottom half 

    More games against the bottom half and most of them are at home
    How the fuck have I only just realised looking at this that we have only lost 1 home game all season!?

    Because we have lost 2?
    Lost to Blackpool as well.
  • Manic_mania
    Manic_mania Posts: 2,262
    apologies i missed it coz it was in grey
  • Weegie Addick
    Weegie Addick Posts: 16,530
    The week at beginning of March of Orient/ Barnsley/ Stockport is going to be the key imo. All the proverbial six pointers. If we’re right in the mix after that, it’s all to play for. 
  • seriously_red
    seriously_red Posts: 5,741
    edited January 28
    Scoham said:
    I think we’ll miss out but won’t be far behind.

    I don’t have much confidence we’ll make enough of the right signings, keep our key players and avoid too many injuries.

    The summer could be different but we could be without Jones, Leaburn and Small by then which only makes building on what we’ve got in place even harder.
    No signings as yet, but no first XI player departures and no injuries whatsoever. Our new director of performance has clearly done wonders compared to previous seasons!

    Your prediction of a "near miss" was on 5th January. Since then we've had two wins and a loss in the league, albeit the wins were by fine margins. Wonder how you see things today?

    For anybody interested, this site predicts a near miss (before tonight's game) https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-league-one/table
  • RaplhMilne
    RaplhMilne Posts: 4,603
    Best price to Finish top 6 is 3/1. To win promotion 14/1.   
  • CoveredEnd1905
    CoveredEnd1905 Posts: 137
    RaplhMilne said:
    Best price to Finish top 6 is 3/1. To win promotion 14/1.   
    Shows how quickly that's gone down. I had a bet on Boxing Day morning on us to get promoted at 22/1 
  • Lewis Coaches
    Lewis Coaches Posts: 5,409
    Addick Addict said:
    Lewis Coaches said:
    Addick Addict said:
    With the remaining fixtures, as they are, if we are to have any chance of making the Play Offs, we have to somehow turn the Valley into a fortress. We could not ask for an easier set of remaining home fixtures but when you've only scored 14 in 12 there, you do become wholly reliant on keeping clean sheets. If Rotherham were to just draw their game in hand then they will leapfrog Lincoln meaning that all bar two of our games at home are against teams in the bottom half of the table:

    Huddersfield (4)
    Barnsley (5)
    Lincoln (12)
    Exeter (14)
    Stevenage (16)
    Wigan (17)
    Bristol Rovers (18)
    Peterborough (19)
    Northampton (20)
    Shrewsbury (22)
    Burton (23)

    9 home wins plus 2 draws at home and 1.3 points a game when away (our current average) would take us to 79 points - almost certainly enough to get us into the Play Offs given the even level of ability of the teams in the division.
    So win nine of those games and draw two.

    Nice thought, but just how long have you been following Charlton ?  5 years or 50 years. 

    We both know it’s possibly but highly unlikely.
    60 years actually, all the way back to the likes of Len Glover and Billy Bonds. The odds are against us but the one thing I do know is that it is possible especially in what is probably one of the weakest third tiers for many years. We have done it in recent times too - in 2018/19, at exactly the same stage, we had just 4 more points and took 47 points in our final 21 matches to finish third and go up via the play offs. I'm suggesting that 5 points less than that in those 21 games will be enough to reach the knock out stages.   
    I also saw Billy Bonds and Len Glover play for Charlton.
    But 6years or 60years didn’t sound the same .

    Next thing you will be saying is you stood for The Valley Party.🤣🤣👍
  • Addick Addict
    Addick Addict Posts: 39,807
    Lewis Coaches said:
    Addick Addict said:
    Lewis Coaches said:
    Addick Addict said:
    With the remaining fixtures, as they are, if we are to have any chance of making the Play Offs, we have to somehow turn the Valley into a fortress. We could not ask for an easier set of remaining home fixtures but when you've only scored 14 in 12 there, you do become wholly reliant on keeping clean sheets. If Rotherham were to just draw their game in hand then they will leapfrog Lincoln meaning that all bar two of our games at home are against teams in the bottom half of the table:

    Huddersfield (4)
    Barnsley (5)
    Lincoln (12)
    Exeter (14)
    Stevenage (16)
    Wigan (17)
    Bristol Rovers (18)
    Peterborough (19)
    Northampton (20)
    Shrewsbury (22)
    Burton (23)

    9 home wins plus 2 draws at home and 1.3 points a game when away (our current average) would take us to 79 points - almost certainly enough to get us into the Play Offs given the even level of ability of the teams in the division.
    So win nine of those games and draw two.

    Nice thought, but just how long have you been following Charlton ?  5 years or 50 years. 

    We both know it’s possibly but highly unlikely.
    60 years actually, all the way back to the likes of Len Glover and Billy Bonds. The odds are against us but the one thing I do know is that it is possible especially in what is probably one of the weakest third tiers for many years. We have done it in recent times too - in 2018/19, at exactly the same stage, we had just 4 more points and took 47 points in our final 21 matches to finish third and go up via the play offs. I'm suggesting that 5 points less than that in those 21 games will be enough to reach the knock out stages.   
    I also saw Billy Bonds and Len Glover play for Charlton.
    But 6years or 60years didn’t sound the same .

    Next thing you will be saying is you stood for The Valley Party.🤣🤣👍
    I can't say that I did. Fingers crossed that we continue the way we have in the last couple of games.

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  • kinveachyaddick
    kinveachyaddick Posts: 3,875
    Looks like up to 2nd is up for grabs 
  • ForeverAddickted
    ForeverAddickted Posts: 94,437
    kinveachyaddick said:
    Looks like up to 2nd is up for grabs 
    Shame that Barnsley didnt hold on for the win

    We were 12-pts behind Wycombe with a game in hand, until Wycombe pulled it back and made it 2-1
  • Manic_mania
    Manic_mania Posts: 2,262
    managed to reel back Wrexham by 8 points in the last 3 games. Bad time for Barnsley and Reading to wobble in the last 4 days. Goes to show how quickly it can unravel so we have to keep picking up those points
  • cafc_se7
    cafc_se7 Posts: 2,276
    Amazing to think that this thread is can we make the playoffs. Can we change it to can we make 2nd?
  • ForeverAddickted
    ForeverAddickted Posts: 94,437
    Reminder that we were eight points behind Barnsley after our 4-2 loss at Rotherham

    A few thought our Play-Off hopes had all but disappeared with that result

    Three games later, and whilst we're not quite in the Play-Offs (Yet!!) - We're now a point ahead of Barnsley

    Just evidence that there is a long way to go in this drama, with plenty more ups and downs still to come
  • AndyG
    AndyG Posts: 5,911
    Repeating what I said the other day this team has the bit between their teeth now I just can’t see them dropping off unless we get injuries to some key players 
  • Exiled_Addick
    Exiled_Addick Posts: 17,179
    edited January 28
    2 of this run of 5 games down, 2 wins. Still need to win at least 2 of the next 3, imo, and ideally all 3 so Birmingham away becomes a complete free-hit. That's followed by another winnable one vs. Exeter and a 6 pointer vs Orient. We're starting to look more cohesive and the whole squad is starting to contribute. We are bang in the picture again. I thought even that was long gone at the end of November, let alone actually getting in.
  • fenaddick
    fenaddick Posts: 11,177
    The Mendez graph looks tasty
    image
  • Valley11
    Valley11 Posts: 12,001
    AndyG said:
    Repeating what I said the other day this team has the bit between their teeth now I just can’t see them dropping off unless we get injuries to some key players 
    Agree. That tonight looked like a team that’s together, who know their roles and are on a roll. Keep it going. 


  • se9addick
    se9addick Posts: 32,047
    fenaddick said:
    The Mendez graph looks tasty
    image
    I mean, if by “lovely” you mean missing out on the playoffs!

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