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Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday

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  • BalladMan
    BalladMan Posts: 1,119
    Chris_from_Sidcup said:
    BalladMan said:


    Running away with most goals in the last 15 (and joint 3rd least). It’s an obvious game plan and long may it continue. 
    What would people put this down to? Is it our game plan? Are we just fitter than other sides? Is it because we don't have many injuries that we now have much better subs coming off the bench? Can't be many teams at this level who have subs like Leaburn and Aneke.
    It was also a trait of Jones Luton teams.  Fittest team, keep it tight if you can’t score, overpower teams in the last 15.  

    Barnsley concede the most in the last 15 (and did it again yesterday) so keep it tight and batter them from 76 minutes onwards.  

    I think we will beat them. 
  • stoneroses19
    stoneroses19 Posts: 7,224
    Big week ahead with fixtures as we probably have the toughest week playing two play off contenders. 

    At least on Tuesday, they'll be dropped points from someone at Huddersfield v Wrexham, and hopefully Birmingham take 3 points against Bolton.
  • NabySarr
    NabySarr Posts: 4,302

    We’ve technically got the hardest run in of the teams competing for play offs and promotion. I think 2nd is going to be unlikely, unless we beat Stockport, Wycombe, Wrexham and Huddersfield. If we can get in the top 4 and get a home second leg then we will have a good chance of Wembley 
  • letthegoodtimesroll
    letthegoodtimesroll Posts: 10,629
    NabySarr said:

    We’ve technically got the hardest run in of the teams competing for play offs and promotion. I think 2nd is going to be unlikely, unless we beat Stockport, Wycombe, Wrexham and Huddersfield. If we can get in the top 4 and get a home second leg then we will have a good chance of Wembley 
    One game at a time. Just keeping the winning momentum going and let the others worry about us.
  • Addick Addict
    Addick Addict Posts: 39,818
    MuttleyCAFC said:
    I think it makes sense to target Wrexham and Wycombe rather than focus on teams around us. I think that takes the pressure off a bit.
    Wrexham have five at home and eight away. 
  • stonemuse
    stonemuse Posts: 34,016
    NabySarr said:

    We’ve technically got the hardest run in of the teams competing for play offs and promotion. I think 2nd is going to be unlikely, unless we beat Stockport, Wycombe, Wrexham and Huddersfield. If we can get in the top 4 and get a home second leg then we will have a good chance of Wembley 
    I think the fact we are playing rivals works in our favour … if we win, the momentum is definitely ours … it’s in our hands not others 
  • fenaddick
    fenaddick Posts: 11,206
    Chris_from_Sidcup said:
    BalladMan said:


    Running away with most goals in the last 15 (and joint 3rd least). It’s an obvious game plan and long may it continue. 
    What would people put this down to? Is it our game plan? Are we just fitter than other sides? Is it because we don't have many injuries that we now have much better subs coming off the bench? Can't be many teams at this level who have subs like Leaburn and Aneke.
    All of the above I think. Maybe not game plan but definitely fitness and the quality of our subs
  • Addick Addict
    Addick Addict Posts: 39,818
    That "18-5" stat does two things. It makes us believe as a team (and the fans who recognise the importance of urging the players on in added time) that it is only too late for us to score once the final whistle goes. And we shouldn't kid ourselves that the opposition analysts don't know that too but the adverse effect of that is that it can make them withdraw and end up constantly defending the box. Those two late goals yesterday are a testament to that.   
  • CAFC_boi
    CAFC_boi Posts: 274
    I was actually just thinking the opposite and that our run in looks quite good after this week - 8 out of the 11 are very winnable, with the 3 tougher ones being Huddersfield, Wrexham and Wycombe. 

    If we get another 4 points from the next two, then I’d expect us to make the playoffs. 
  • JustFloydRoad
    JustFloydRoad Posts: 1,633
    A bit too much?

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  • JustFloydRoad
    JustFloydRoad Posts: 1,633
    Addick Addict said:
    MuttleyCAFC said:
    I think it makes sense to target Wrexham and Wycombe rather than focus on teams around us. I think that takes the pressure off a bit.
    Wrexham have five at home* and eight away. 
    One against us
  • shine166
    shine166 Posts: 13,925
    Wrexham bigger games:

    Huddersfield, Bolton, Charlton, Reading, Wycombe, Stockport


  • JustFloydRoad
    JustFloydRoad Posts: 1,633
    shine166 said:
    Wrexham bigger games:

    Huddersfield, Bolton, Charlton, Reading, Wycombe, Stockport


    Someone should suggest they get their half and half scarf team out. I heard they are having money issues
  • DOUCHER
    DOUCHER Posts: 7,909
    i think the way we went for the second goal yesterday after equalising, rather than shutting up shop, gives an indication that we have one eye on second spot - NJ won't admit that publicly but the way we approach barnsley and stockport will also be telling - draws are no good if we are hunting down second spot 
  • SantaClaus
    SantaClaus Posts: 7,659
    I just checked the odds and we're a best price 20/1 to finish in the top 2.
  • DOUCHER
    DOUCHER Posts: 7,909
    SantaClaus said:
    I just checked the odds and we're a best price 20/1 to finish in the top 2.
    its an outside shot of course but i don't think its completely out of the question and if we need to gamble in games to go for it, i think we should - straight up or a 1 in 4 chance ? i think its worth the gamble even if it jeopardises being in the play offs  
  • Addick Addict
    Addick Addict Posts: 39,818
    edited March 2
    1. JustFloydRoad said:
    Addick Addict said:
    MuttleyCAFC said:
    I think it makes sense to target Wrexham and Wycombe rather than focus on teams around us. I think that takes the pressure off a bit.
    Wrexham have five at home* and eight away. 
    One against us
    On current form, Wrexham are, by no means invincible, home or away.

    They've

    failed to win 8 of their last 14 matches
    taken two points from their last four home matches
    kept three clean sheets in their last 15 matches
    not scored more than two goals in a game since the 23rd November
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,794
    NabySarr said:

    Opta says 44.28% chance of finishing in the top 6. I would guess a win on Saturday would flip us above orient and give us an above 50% chance 
    After yesterday

    Charlton 44.28% -> 57.30% (autos 1.02% -> 2.48%)
    Orient 53.56% -> 28.48%


  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 69,893
    Callumcafc said:
    NabySarr said:

    Opta says 44.28% chance of finishing in the top 6. I would guess a win on Saturday would flip us above orient and give us an above 50% chance 
    After yesterday

    Charlton 44.28% -> 57.30% (autos 1.02% -> 2.48%)
    Orient 53.56% -> 28.48%


    71.6% for Wycombe to get automatic promotion feels very high, but partially because the nearest challengers in the table at the moment Wrexham aren't in top form either. 
  • charente addick
    charente addick Posts: 3,810
    Callumcafc said:
    NabySarr said:

    Opta says 44.28% chance of finishing in the top 6. I would guess a win on Saturday would flip us above orient and give us an above 50% chance 
    After yesterday

    Charlton 44.28% -> 57.30% (autos 1.02% -> 2.48%)
    Orient 53.56% -> 28.48%


    So, if I'm interpreting this correctly, we have a 57.3% chance of play offs - assume our chances of play off success are 25% once we're there means that, as of today, we have a 14.3% chance of getting promoted via play offs plus 2.5% chance of automatics. Therefore we currently have a 16.8% chance of promotion. 

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  • TheFXguy
    TheFXguy Posts: 154
    88.2% of all statistics are made up on the spot, according to Vic Reeves
  • hoof_it_up_to_benty
    hoof_it_up_to_benty Posts: 22,457
    edited March 3
    Birmingham definitely up leaving nine teams in the hunt for second place and playoff places. We have to maintain our form.
  • LeeValley
    LeeValley Posts: 83
    14 games ago (mid Dec) we were 19 points behind Wycombe. 14 games later we are 8 behind. There are 13 games to go, it's possible. 
  • charente addick
    charente addick Posts: 3,810
    charente addick said:
    Callumcafc said:
    NabySarr said:

    Opta says 44.28% chance of finishing in the top 6. I would guess a win on Saturday would flip us above orient and give us an above 50% chance 
    After yesterday

    Charlton 44.28% -> 57.30% (autos 1.02% -> 2.48%)
    Orient 53.56% -> 28.48%


    So, if I'm interpreting this correctly, we have a 57.3% chance of play offs - assume our chances of play off success are 25% once we're there means that, as of today, we have a 14.3% chance of getting promoted via play offs plus 2.5% chance of automatics. Therefore we currently have a 16.8% chance of promotion. 
    Opta have updated their stats since the last chart posted and it would indicate that we now have a 17.86% chance of promotion. If this is to be believed bookmaker odds of 20/1 look very generous.
  • cafcnick1992
    cafcnick1992 Posts: 7,416
    It's great fun this isn't it. It's great feeling so invested in the league table again. Bring on Tuesday - can't wait!
  • swords_alive
    swords_alive Posts: 4,276
    On Skybet Charlton are

    4/1 for promotion
    16/1 for automatic, i.e. finish 2nd
    1/2 to finish top 6
  • MintoHumbugs
    MintoHumbugs Posts: 753
    Addick Addict said:
    1. JustFloydRoad said:
    Addick Addict said:
    MuttleyCAFC said:
    I think it makes sense to target Wrexham and Wycombe rather than focus on teams around us. I think that takes the pressure off a bit.
    Wrexham have five at home* and eight away. 
    One against us
    On current form, Wrexham are, by no means invincible, home or away.

    They've

    failed to win 8 of their last 14 matches
    taken two points from their last four home matches
    kept three clean sheets in their last 15 matches
    not scored more than two goals in a game since the 23rd November
    Watching their weekend highlights further enforced my beliefs OConnell is a very poor error prone player. I recall a few people here were sorry to see him go. I certainly wasn’t.

    The fact he had Lavelle next to him ( arguably the only league 1 defender slower than him ) probably made him look better than he is.
  • charente addick
    charente addick Posts: 3,810
    swords_alive said:
    On Skybet Charlton are

    4/1 for promotion
    16/1 for automatic, i.e. finish 2nd
    1/2 to finish top 6
    These odds make more sense
  • Addick Addict
    Addick Addict Posts: 39,818
    edited March 3
    Addick Addict said:
    With the remaining fixtures, as they are, if we are to have any chance of making the Play Offs, we have to somehow turn the Valley into a fortress. We could not ask for an easier set of remaining home fixtures but when you've only scored 14 in 12 there, you do become wholly reliant on keeping clean sheets. If Rotherham were to just draw their game in hand then they will leapfrog Lincoln meaning that all bar two of our games at home are against teams in the bottom half of the table:

    Huddersfield (4) - now 5th
    Barnsley (5) - now 10th
    Lincoln (12) - now 13th
    Exeter (14) Won
    Stevenage (16) Won
    Wigan (17) - now 15th
    Bristol Rovers (18) Won
    Peterborough (19) Won
    Northampton (20) - now 18th
    Shrewsbury (22) Won
    Burton (23) - now 21st

    9 home wins plus 2 draws at home and 1.3 points a game when away (our current average) would take us to 79 points - almost certainly enough to get us into the Play Offs given the even level of ability of the teams in the division.
    Well we're 8 games on since I wrote the above. We are turning the Valley into a "fortress" (we've won 5/5 at home and conceded just a single goal, a dubious penalty at that, in those games) and are up with that 1.3 points per game away (4 points from our 3 away). So, we need to win 4 and draw 2 at home and pick up 9 points from our 7 away games to reach that 79 points which would now almost certainly be enough to make the play offs (for 27 of the last 32 seasons, 79 points was sufficient but, more to the point, so many of the teams around us are struggling for any consistency). 

    Better results than that and who knows? It's the hope that kills us supporters especially the long suffering ones eh @lewiscoaches !!!




  • SantaClaus
    SantaClaus Posts: 7,659
    charente addick said:
    charente addick said:
    Callumcafc said:
    NabySarr said:

    Opta says 44.28% chance of finishing in the top 6. I would guess a win on Saturday would flip us above orient and give us an above 50% chance 
    After yesterday

    Charlton 44.28% -> 57.30% (autos 1.02% -> 2.48%)
    Orient 53.56% -> 28.48%


    So, if I'm interpreting this correctly, we have a 57.3% chance of play offs - assume our chances of play off success are 25% once we're there means that, as of today, we have a 14.3% chance of getting promoted via play offs plus 2.5% chance of automatics. Therefore we currently have a 16.8% chance of promotion. 
    Opta have updated their stats since the last chart posted and it would indicate that we now have a 17.86% chance of promotion. If this is to be believed bookmaker odds of 20/1 look very generous.

    The 20/1 odds were for a top 2 finish not promotion.

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