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Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday
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Someone will know the answer to this. It's probably straightforward and I am missing something...RobinOnions said:I've been keeping half an eye on the "OptaAnalyst" prediction table, which gives us a healthy 77.4% change of being promoted via the playoffs. The model they use simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times, and I presume they take into account where we might finish and who we might play in the PO semis. Like every prediction this requires more than a pinch of salt.
3.12% for a top two finish...so it's not impossible
https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-league-one
Two teams get promoted automatically. So the column "promotion" should add up to 200, which it does. One team gets promoted via the play-offs, so the "promotion p/o" column should add up to 100. It doesn't. If Charlton's chances of promotion via the play-offs are 77.4%, then all the other teams should add up to 22.6%.
What's missing?0 -
It's the chances of ending up in the playoffs.Chizz said:
Someone will know the answer to this. It's probably straightforward and I am missing something...RobinOnions said:I've been keeping half an eye on the "OptaAnalyst" prediction table, which gives us a healthy 77.4% change of being promoted via the playoffs. The model they use simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times, and I presume they take into account where we might finish and who we might play in the PO semis. Like every prediction this requires more than a pinch of salt.
3.12% for a top two finish...so it's not impossible
https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-league-one
Two teams get promoted automatically. So the column "promotion" should add up to 200, which it does. One team gets promoted via the play-offs, so the "promotion p/o" column should add up to 100. It doesn't. If Charlton's chances of promotion via the play-offs are 77.4%, then all the other teams should add up to 22.6%.
What's missing?
So should add up to 400 I guess.
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It's a badly named column header. It's showing the % likelihood of finishing in a playoff spot, not the chance of actually being promoted. So it should add up to 400% for 4 places, which it presumably does once you factor in anyone below Reading.Chizz said:
Someone will know the answer to this. It's probably straightforward and I am missing something...RobinOnions said:I've been keeping half an eye on the "OptaAnalyst" prediction table, which gives us a healthy 77.4% change of being promoted via the playoffs. The model they use simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times, and I presume they take into account where we might finish and who we might play in the PO semis. Like every prediction this requires more than a pinch of salt.
3.12% for a top two finish...so it's not impossible
https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-league-one
Two teams get promoted automatically. So the column "promotion" should add up to 200, which it does. One team gets promoted via the play-offs, so the "promotion p/o" column should add up to 100. It doesn't. If Charlton's chances of promotion via the play-offs are 77.4%, then all the other teams should add up to 22.6%.
What's missing?
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Chance and Probability are very similar to each other. Both of them have the numbers 0 and 1. The difference they share is that chance doesn't have any obviousness whereas probability exactly defines the ratio of how likely an event is to happen.Chizz said:
Someone will know the answer to this. It's probably straightforward and I am missing something...RobinOnions said:I've been keeping half an eye on the "OptaAnalyst" prediction table, which gives us a healthy 77.4% change of being promoted via the playoffs. The model they use simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times, and I presume they take into account where we might finish and who we might play in the PO semis. Like every prediction this requires more than a pinch of salt.
3.12% for a top two finish...so it's not impossible
https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-league-one
Two teams get promoted automatically. So the column "promotion" should add up to 200, which it does. One team gets promoted via the play-offs, so the "promotion p/o" column should add up to 100. It doesn't. If Charlton's chances of promotion via the play-offs are 77.4%, then all the other teams should add up to 22.6%.
What's missing?
hope that clarifies 😉
frankly, I think this would make more sense if it was based on the probability of making the playoffs rather than winning them.
Edit: this must be based on making the playoffs when you compare to the probability of promotion column1 -
Comparing both teams at 35 games they are level on 60 points and 5th place. The 2018/19 team never got higher than 5th until the last match when it leapfrogged into 3rd. The 2024/25 team will go into 4th place with a win tonight.cafcnick1992 said:
We were a better side in 18/19.Braziliance said:
I'm looking at Wrexham and Wycombe as though they are only 5 points clear of us and not 8 as we will have to beat them both to have a chance. That's why winning Vs. Stockport would have been huge. Suddenly we are only 3 points behind if you predict us to beat them both, nothing.Sollied said:The big difference is we had already played Sunderland by that point. We still have both Wrexham and Wycombe to play, so in many ways this is more in our hands than 18-19 would have been
the 2018/19 team benefitted from a prolific striker who we all expected to score every game whether he did or not. His goals and on field shenanigans papered over a lot of cracks.
theres no argument from me that with that final 11 game run in the 2018/19 team got even better. We will have to wait and see whether the 2024/25 team does likewise in its final 11 games of the regular season.
as things stand, approaching game 36 it’s a tall claim and too soon to say the 2018/19 team were a better side.
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Braziliance said:
I'm looking at Wrexham and Wycombe as though they are only 5 points clear of us and not 8 as we will have to beat them both to have a chance. That's why winning Vs. Stockport would have been huge. Suddenly we are only 3 points behind if you predict us to beat them both, nothing.Sollied said:The big difference is we had already played Sunderland by that point. We still have both Wrexham and Wycombe to play, so in many ways this is more in our hands than 18-19 would have been
Should we make the play-offs I fancy our chances strongly against either Wycombe or Wrexham. They have been up there all season and should they not go up automatically I fancy them to fold.
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If either or both those teams end up in the play offs instead of automatic promotion it will be a pretty big blow to them given where they e been all season so far and likely mean they won’t be going into the playoff games as the form team.ElfsborgAddick said:Braziliance said:
I'm looking at Wrexham and Wycombe as though they are only 5 points clear of us and not 8 as we will have to beat them both to have a chance. That's why winning Vs. Stockport would have been huge. Suddenly we are only 3 points behind if you predict us to beat them both, nothing.Sollied said:The big difference is we had already played Sunderland by that point. We still have both Wrexham and Wycombe to play, so in many ways this is more in our hands than 18-19 would have been
Should we make the play-offs I fancy our chances strongly against either Wycombe or Wrexham. They have been up there all season and should they not go up automatically I fancy them to fold.0 -
I think with the additions over the Winter transfer window, the 18/19 side became the best team in the league. Cullen, Beilik, Taylor, Aribo and Phillips would all walk into the current side.letthegoodtimesroll said:
Comparing both teams at 35 games they are level on 60 points and 5th place. The 2018/19 team never got higher than 5th until the last match when it leapfrogged into 3rd. The 2024/25 team will go into 4th place with a win tonight.cafcnick1992 said:
We were a better side in 18/19.Braziliance said:
I'm looking at Wrexham and Wycombe as though they are only 5 points clear of us and not 8 as we will have to beat them both to have a chance. That's why winning Vs. Stockport would have been huge. Suddenly we are only 3 points behind if you predict us to beat them both, nothing.Sollied said:The big difference is we had already played Sunderland by that point. We still have both Wrexham and Wycombe to play, so in many ways this is more in our hands than 18-19 would have been
the 2018/19 team benefitted from a prolific striker who we all expected to score every game whether he did or not. His goals and on field shenanigans papered over a lot of cracks.
theres no argument from me that with that final 11 game run in the 2018/19 team got even better. We will have to wait and see whether the 2024/25 team does likewise in its final 11 games of the regular season.
as things stand, approaching game 36 it’s a tall claim and too soon to say the 2018/19 team were a better side.4 -
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Deadpool we're coming for you!!!
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Sponsored links:
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Rename the thread... We've made the Play-Offs
The questions now are
- Can we stay here
- Can we push on and get Second3 -
Ramsay would get into the 18/19 side at RB, as would Godden or Leaburn for Parker. I think Edwards is better than Purrington and Jones is as good as Bauer and better than Pearce and Sarr.cafcnick1992 said:
I think with the additions over the Winter transfer window, the 18/19 side became the best team in the league. Cullen, Beilik, Taylor, Aribo and Phillips would all walk into the current side.letthegoodtimesroll said:
Comparing both teams at 35 games they are level on 60 points and 5th place. The 2018/19 team never got higher than 5th until the last match when it leapfrogged into 3rd. The 2024/25 team will go into 4th place with a win tonight.cafcnick1992 said:
We were a better side in 18/19.Braziliance said:
I'm looking at Wrexham and Wycombe as though they are only 5 points clear of us and not 8 as we will have to beat them both to have a chance. That's why winning Vs. Stockport would have been huge. Suddenly we are only 3 points behind if you predict us to beat them both, nothing.Sollied said:The big difference is we had already played Sunderland by that point. We still have both Wrexham and Wycombe to play, so in many ways this is more in our hands than 18-19 would have been
the 2018/19 team benefitted from a prolific striker who we all expected to score every game whether he did or not. His goals and on field shenanigans papered over a lot of cracks.
theres no argument from me that with that final 11 game run in the 2018/19 team got even better. We will have to wait and see whether the 2024/25 team does likewise in its final 11 games of the regular season.
as things stand, approaching game 36 it’s a tall claim and too soon to say the 2018/19 team were a better side.12 -
There is a chance we don’t make the playoffs, but it won’t be because we finish below sixth…10
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play offs 100% guaranteed 25% chance of autos1
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Second place is up for grabs and a decent run of fixtures to come.4
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We should now make the playoffs now (unless we go on a Leyton O style run).ElfsborgAddick said:Braziliance said:
I'm looking at Wrexham and Wycombe as though they are only 5 points clear of us and not 8 as we will have to beat them both to have a chance. That's why winning Vs. Stockport would have been huge. Suddenly we are only 3 points behind if you predict us to beat them both, nothing.Sollied said:The big difference is we had already played Sunderland by that point. We still have both Wrexham and Wycombe to play, so in many ways this is more in our hands than 18-19 would have been
Should we make the play-offs I fancy our chances strongly against either Wycombe or Wrexham. They have been up there all season and should they not go up automatically I fancy them to fold.
Auto- We would need 6 points out of Wycombe and Wrexham (Away trips) before we can really got hyped about Automatic. We can afford to draw against Wrexham again, but Wycombe are a game behind (so can afford to draw like we could against Stockport).
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Massive step forward this evening. Bolton losing a huge bonus because they’ve had momentum too.7
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If Wycombe v Wrexham is a draw on Saturday and we win the gap is down to 3 points. Someone get the 'it's happening' gif.7
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Hold off till the end of the monthForeverAddickted said:Rename the thread... We've made the Play-Offs*
The questions now are
- Can we stay here
- Can we push on and get Second4 -
So, you're saying there's a chance we'll finish second and end up in the playoffs?oohaahmortimer said:play offs 100% guaranteed 25% chance of autos2 -
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This would be fantastic and be a real spur to really go for it. Consolidating top six is important but to still have the focus to drive all the way to top two just might be within reach.Chris_from_Sidcup said:If Wycombe v Wrexham is a draw on Saturday and we win the gap is down to 3 points. Someone get the 'it's happening' gif.0 -
Six points better than Wycombe and Wrexham over the last 10 games. 10 more games to go8
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don't forget Stockport V Bolton is Saturday as well so all 4 teams around us playing each other so could be a big opportunity to not just close a gap above but also create one below us6
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Charlton's last 10:
- Wigan (H),
- Peterborough (A),
- Huddersfield (H),
- Mansfield (A),
- Lincoln (H),
- Cambridge (A),
- Northampton (H),
- Wycombe (A),
- Wrexham (A),
- Burton (H)
Wrexham's last 10:- Wycombe (A),
- Stockport (H),
- Exeter (A),
- Cambridge (A),
- Burton (H),
- Wigan (A),
- Bristol Rovers (H),
- Blackpool (A),
- Charlton (H),
- Lincoln (A)
Wycombe's last 11:- Wrexham (H),
- Rotherham (A),
- Huddersfield (A),
- Lincoln (H),
- Shrewsbury (H),
- Reading (A),
- Stevenage (H),
- Bolton (A),
- Charlton (H),
- Orient (A),
- Stockport (H)
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Saturdays fixtures, with rivals highlighted... think its safe to disregard Leyton Orient and Barnsley for the top six, at least for now
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Please don’t let 2nd place go until the last game of the season. We need to resolve our fate before then.I couldn’t stand disappointment at the last game if we keep this up until then.2
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Not the worst set of fixtures, but you'd hope that Burton have their season resolved by then, as they're in form!!valleynick66 said:Please don’t let 2nd place go until the last game of the season. We need to resolve our fate before then.I couldn’t stand disappointment at the last game if we keep this up until then.
It would be nice to win promotion at Wrexham though
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Amazing fact coming up.
Charlton do not have a single player in the top 50 of league one assists so far this season.
Highest is Gilbert in joint 58th with 4!3 -
With the fixtures remaining finishing second looks a more achievable task than winning the playoff lottery.1
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When you look at it like that, I tell you what Wycombe might be bang in trouble thereCallumcafc said:Charlton's last 10:- Wigan (H),
- Peterborough (A),
- Huddersfield (H),
- Mansfield (A),
- Lincoln (H),
- Cambridge (A),
- Northampton (H),
- Wycombe (A),
- Wrexham (A),
- Burton (H)
Wrexham's last 10:- Wycombe (A),
- Stockport (H),
- Exeter (A),
- Cambridge (A),
- Burton (H),
- Wigan (A),
- Bristol Rovers (H),
- Blackpool (A),
- Charlton (H),
- Lincoln (A)
Wycombe's last 11:- Wrexham (H),
- Rotherham (A),
- Huddersfield (A),
- Lincoln (H),
- Shrewsbury (H),
- Reading (A),
- Stevenage (H),
- Bolton (A),
- Charlton (H),
- Orient (A),
- Stockport (H)
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