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Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday
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They haven't scored at home this year or something like that. I think it is your home form which can get you sacked before poor away form as that is what gets the most scrutiny. Slipping out of the play offs will be a factor and they are clearly looking for a new manager bounce like Bolton have had.0
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I've been keeping half an eye on the "OptaAnalyst" prediction table, which gives us a healthy 77.4% change of being promoted via the playoffs. The model they use simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times, and I presume they take into account where we might finish and who we might play in the PO semis. Like every prediction this requires more than a pinch of salt.
3.12% for a top two finish...so it's not impossible
https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-league-one
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I don’t think anyone could argue with that forecast of how the placings will end up. Whoever wins that playoff will have deserved it as there are no easy fixtures from that 4. I’m not sure we have enough to win promotion if I’m honest I think Bolton will be too strong with the form they are showing. If we don’t though I will be gutted asi suspect the likes of Leaburn, Small, Ramsey and even TC might be offRobinOnions said:I've been keeping half an eye on the "OptaAnalyst" prediction table, which gives us a healthy 77.4% change of being promoted via the playoffs. The model they use simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times, and I presume they take into account where we might finish and who we might play in the PO semis. Like every prediction this requires more than a pinch of salt.
3.12% for a top two finish...so it's not impossible
https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-league-one4 -
A bit weird that they have Bolton with a fractionally higher expected points total, but us with a fractionally higher chance of automatic promotion!
Interesting that they think Wycombe are twice as likely to get automatic promotion, when they currently have the same number of points. Clearly they think that Wycombe have an easier run in, but those percentages look exaggerated.0 -
I think the Play-Offs themselves look scarier than they have in the past. I feel like Wrexham will probably squeeze Wycombe out and that will leave Wycombe, Stockport, Bolton and hopefully us, assuming Huddersfield don't also have a resurgence now and we maintain our form. Of those we're so similar to Stockport you feel like two legs would be decided over a single error and Bolton look very ominous under Schumacher. Whether it's Wycombe or Wrexham they're going to be tough as well so through all the effort after 46 games the real work will start. All the more reason to really push for that second spot, if we can win 6 of our next 8 and draw the other two (which is a very big ask) then we'll go into the Wycombe and Wrexham away games with a chance. Most likely we've given ourselves too much to do and need to dig in to keep that Play-Off place.5
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I think Wycombe are the team you’d want to play in the semi finals. Bolton look the team to avoid at the moment (though I’m sure the others would look at us in a similar way)Garrymanilow said:I think the Play-Offs themselves look scarier than they have in the past. I feel like Wrexham will probably squeeze Wycombe out and that will leave Wycombe, Stockport, Bolton and hopefully us, assuming Huddersfield don't also have a resurgence now and we maintain our form. Of those we're so similar to Stockport you feel like two legs would be decided over a single error and Bolton look very ominous under Schumacher. Whether it's Wycombe or Wrexham they're going to be tough as well so through all the effort after 46 games the real work will start. All the more reason to really push for that second spot, if we can win 6 of our next 8 and draw the other two (which is a very big ask) then we'll go into the Wycombe and Wrexham away games with a chance. Most likely we've given ourselves too much to do and need to dig in to keep that Play-Off place.
If it is play offs then the dream scenario would maybe be Bolton losing to Stockport and us beating Wycombe. I think a game between us and Stockport at Wembley would be very different with a much bigger pitch than on Saturday and therefore a lot more space for Small and TC to work with out wide9 -
P'raps.1
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Probably because these percentages come from thousands of individual simulations where, to get to the right points total, we’ve beaten Wycombe or Wrexham or both whereas Bolton have already played Wrexham twice and can’t affect their rivals as much as we can.killerandflash said:A bit weird that they have Bolton with a fractionally higher expected points total, but us with a fractionally higher chance of automatic promotion!
Interesting that they think Wycombe are twice as likely to get automatic promotion, when they currently have the same number of points. Clearly they think that Wycombe have an easier run in, but those percentages look exaggerated.1 -
I did one of those score prediction apps to try and see where I saw us and everyone else ending up, and in the end I had Brum running away with the title, Wrexham second and us leapfrogging Wycombe for 3rd. We end up just 3 points behind them in my final table, Wycombe 4th, Bolton 5th and Stockport 6th (which would be my worst nightmare, having watched the game at the weekend, I'd much rather play Bolton in the playoffs)1
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Isn’t that 77% chance of being in the play-offs rather than getting promoted via them?7
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Nope... 77% chance we'll be promoted via. the Play-OffsWeegie Addick said:Isn’t that 77% chance of being in the play-offs rather than getting promoted via them?2 -
This is an excellent post and very interestingCallumcafc said:It’s a funny coincidence that six years ago under Bowyer, after 35 games played, we were also 5th and also had 60 points.
The major difference is the points totals of the teams around us.
Wycombe and Wrexham have an equal number of points to Sunderland in 2019 - with Sunderland in 2019 having played one fewer game than both of them.
We finished three points above Sunderland and above Portsmouth on goal difference (by one goal).
Automatics is still doable but will likely require winning 9 of our last 11 matches and then possibly relying on goal difference swings. It’s actually in our favour that we still have to play both Wycombe and Wrexham.0 -
I've also tweeted this and credited you, I don't think you use twitter and thought that would be cool for people to see as not many will have worked that out.Callumcafc said:It’s a funny coincidence that six years ago under Bowyer, after 35 games played, we were also 5th and also had 60 points.
The major difference is the points totals of the teams around us.Wycombe and Wrexham have an equal number of points to Sunderland in 2019 - with Sunderland in 2019 having played one fewer game than both of them.
We finished three points above Sunderland and above Portsmouth on goal difference (by one goal).
Automatics is still doable but will likely require winning 9 of our last 11 matches and then possibly relying on goal difference swings. It’s actually in our favour that we still have to play both Wycombe and Wrexham.
I'm now gonna see what games Sunderland won and loss.
https://x.com/BigBadBraz/status/1899202885440929998?t=Ha4oYAoBSj1BKvK0c8A_mg&s=191 -
Wow, Sunderland had an absolute stinker. Won 4, drew 5 and lost 3. I'd argue that Sunderland side had more quality or was at least on par with Wrexham and Wycombe as well. You just never know.2
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If we get to the playoffs, as I fully expect us to do, then another Wembley final it is going to be for us, and I hope it’s Wrexham we will stuff.
Playoff finals are our thing…👍0 -
I seem to remember they lost an absolutely crazy game at home to Coventry, 4-5 I think it was.Braziliance said:Wow, Sunderland had an absolute stinker. Won 4, drew 5 and lost 3. I'd argue that Sunderland side had more quality or was at least on par with Wrexham and Wycombe as well. You just never know.1 -
Now Charlie has gone I'm not so sure...3
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Appreciate it and glad you found it interesting. I have an account on there but only ever read stuff, would never post it myself.Braziliance said:
I've also tweeted this and credited you, I don't think you use twitter and thought that would be cool for people to see as not many will have worked that out.Callumcafc said:It’s a funny coincidence that six years ago under Bowyer, after 35 games played, we were also 5th and also had 60 points.
The major difference is the points totals of the teams around us.Wycombe and Wrexham have an equal number of points to Sunderland in 2019 - with Sunderland in 2019 having played one fewer game than both of them.
We finished three points above Sunderland and above Portsmouth on goal difference (by one goal).
Automatics is still doable but will likely require winning 9 of our last 11 matches and then possibly relying on goal difference swings. It’s actually in our favour that we still have to play both Wycombe and Wrexham.
I'm now gonna see what games Sunderland won and loss.
https://x.com/BigBadBraz/status/1899202885440929998?t=Ha4oYAoBSj1BKvK0c8A_mg&s=191 -
The funny thing about that is like I said, Sunderland had only played 34 games not 35 like Wrexham and Wycombe have.Braziliance said:Wow, Sunderland had an absolute stinker. Won 4, drew 5 and lost 3. I'd argue that Sunderland side had more quality or was at least on par with Wrexham and Wycombe as well. You just never know.
So those two could go and get 4 wins, 6 draws and only lose 1 of their last 11 games and still end up on fewer points than we did that season.
The problem for us is that we have to overhaul both of them. One team dropping off and having that kind of stinker is plausible. Two doing it is more improbable.8 -
The big difference is we had already played Sunderland by that point. We still have both Wrexham and Wycombe to play, so in many ways this is more in our hands than 18-19 would have been0
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How can Wycombe have 61% chance of promotion compared to Wrexham's 31% when they're on the same points and Wycombe have a much tougher run in?RobinOnions said:I've been keeping half an eye on the "OptaAnalyst" prediction table, which gives us a healthy 77.4% change of being promoted via the playoffs. The model they use simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times, and I presume they take into account where we might finish and who we might play in the PO semis. Like every prediction this requires more than a pinch of salt.
3.12% for a top two finish...so it's not impossible
https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-league-one
Also Bolton's expected points is very marginally higher than ours, but our % chance of promotion and promotion via the play offs is higher? How?0 -
Maybe it is assuming Bolton's run-in is easier than ours?Chris_from_Sidcup said:
How can Wycombe have 61% chance of promotion compared to Wrexham's 31% when they're on the same points and Wycombe have a much tougher run in?RobinOnions said:I've been keeping half an eye on the "OptaAnalyst" prediction table, which gives us a healthy 77.4% change of being promoted via the playoffs. The model they use simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times, and I presume they take into account where we might finish and who we might play in the PO semis. Like every prediction this requires more than a pinch of salt.
3.12% for a top two finish...so it's not impossible
https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-league-one
Also Bolton's expected points is very marginally higher than ours, but our % chance of promotion and promotion via the play offs is higher? How?0 -
Clearly the only way to know for definite is to ask ChatGPT. So here's what's going to happen, not just this season, but for the next 10:
Projected Charlton Athletic Performance (2024–2035)2024/25 – League One (5th, Playoffs)Under Nathan Jones, Charlton stabilizes and pushes for promotion via the playoffs but falls short.2025/26 – League One (2nd, Promoted to Championship)Strong squad development and smart signings lead to automatic promotion.2026/27 – Championship (16th Place)First season back in the Championship is focused on survival and consolidation.2027/28 – Championship (10th Place)Charlton builds on their foundation and finishes mid-table.2028/29 – Championship (6th, Playoffs)With further squad improvements, Charlton reaches the playoffs but fails to secure promotion.2029/30 – Championship (4th, Promoted via Playoffs)Charlton wins the playoff final and returns to the Premier League after 25 years.2030/31 – Premier League (19th, Relegated)Tough first season in the top flight results in relegation back to the Championship.2031/32 – Championship (3rd, Playoff Semi-final Exit) A strong season but they fall short of promotion.2032/33 – Championship (1st, Promoted to Premier League) Charlton wins the Championship title and returns to the Premier League.2033/34 – Premier League (15th, Survival Achieved)Smarter recruitment helps Charlton avoid relegation.2034/35 – Premier League (12th, Consolidation)Charlton establishes itself as a mid-table Premier League club.17 -
When we played Orient the weekend before last, they were above us on goal difference. If we win tonight we go 10 points above them with 10 games to go. If you look back early in this thread, some were saying it was too big an ask to catch Barnsley, we could be 11 points above them tonight. This is basically showing that we shouldn't give up on second. Of course we are not favourites to get it but it is still possible.9
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In less good news I also checked what it thought for Palace and Millwall.
Apparently Palace are going to qualify for the Champions League in 2030/31 and win the FA Cup in 2032/33.
Meanwhile Millwall are also going to get promoted to the Premier League in 2029/30, get relegated straight back down but unlike us bounce back at the first attempt in 2031/32.0 -
When does ChatGPT think we'll next beat Millwall, or did it just laugh at your Question?DyerConsequences said:In less good news I also checked what it thought for Palace and Millwall.
Apparently Palace are going to qualify for the Champions League in 2030/31 and win the FA Cup in 2032/33.
Meanwhile Millwall are also going to get promoted to the Premier League in 2029/30, get relegated straight back down but unlike us bounce back at the first attempt in 2031/32.9 -
It's optimistic with it's predictions but not that optimistic.ForeverAddickted said:
When does ChatGPT think we'll next beat Millwall, or did it just laugh at your Question?DyerConsequences said:In less good news I also checked what it thought for Palace and Millwall.
Apparently Palace are going to qualify for the Champions League in 2030/31 and win the FA Cup in 2032/33.
Meanwhile Millwall are also going to get promoted to the Premier League in 2029/30, get relegated straight back down but unlike us bounce back at the first attempt in 2031/32.7 -
I'm looking at Wrexham and Wycombe as though they are only 5 points clear of us and not 8 as we will have to beat them both to have a chance. That's why winning Vs. Stockport would have been huge. Suddenly we are only 3 points behind if you predict us to beat them both, nothing.Sollied said:The big difference is we had already played Sunderland by that point. We still have both Wrexham and Wycombe to play, so in many ways this is more in our hands than 18-19 would have been2 -
We'll make the play offs, think we'll run out of games to catch 2nd but isnt it great that we're talking promotion/play off chances rather than relegation chances as per the previous god knows how many seasons!5
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We were a better side in 18/19.Braziliance said:
I'm looking at Wrexham and Wycombe as though they are only 5 points clear of us and not 8 as we will have to beat them both to have a chance. That's why winning Vs. Stockport would have been huge. Suddenly we are only 3 points behind if you predict us to beat them both, nothing.Sollied said:The big difference is we had already played Sunderland by that point. We still have both Wrexham and Wycombe to play, so in many ways this is more in our hands than 18-19 would have been2
