Stockport are the standout favourites which suits us down to the ground
Not sure that would feel true on day. Finished 2 points ahead, but having come up from L2. Lost their most influential player in January. Not long ago they were non-league. Stepping out at Wembley in front of 40,000 Charlton fans & what, 15-25,000 Stockport fans? Ex Premier League club, Charlton. A club no one can dispute is playing below their level, despite the last 15 years. I think Stockport would be able to easily see themselves as underdogs, and the media will portray it that way too. Rising from the ashes to take on fallen PL side for a shot at the Championship.
Not sure the media will be coming up for narratives for a match between Charlton & Stockport!
It will be interesting though if we get to Wembley. You’d assume that it will be a borderline home match for us given the massive disparity in the number of fans from each side.
Not the national sporting press, I doubt that they could care less about League One. I meant the Sky Sports view will be plucky Stockport/Orient v ex PL Charlton. This was in reply to someone saying Stockport will be clear favourites. I just can’t see that in any sense. They just came up & lost their best player in January. And were non league not long ago. Given how it has all panned out, surely people will have Charlton as favourites, as have an out of form Wycombe in Semis!
Not sure what them just coming up has to do with it, they're there on merit, finished above us and we didn't beat them in either league game. They also seem to have coped pretty well without Barry since January.
Also lost their captain Lewis Bate to injury a few weeks ago and without him they won 5 and drew 1.
I do agree they wouldn't be 'clear' favourites if we get them at Wembley, but i don't think we would be either.
In terms of the narrative of the match up, them just coming up does come into it. As Stockport certainly aren’t ‘clear’ favourites as the original poster claimed. They only finished 2 points ahead. Therefore, in what sense are they ‘clear’ favourites? It can’t be because they are a big club at this level, who have spent big. Because they’ve only just come up, after being in non-league not long ago, and having had their most influential player recalled from his loan. They also have a tougher Semi-Final on paper. Therefore, under no metric are Stockport County ‘clear’ or ‘strong’ favourites imo.
I think people are overthinking it to be honest. It’s two, hopefully three games of football and frankly under the pressure and circumstances of those games anything can happen. Form is not as important in playoff matches because of their unique nature. At worst we’ve got a 25% chance and to be honest if you told me we’d be in this situation in November I’d have laughed my nuts off. Can’t say playoff matches are particularly enjoyable because of the prize at stake but whatever happens Nathan Jones has worked a small miracle and should we fall short I’m already confident next season will be just as successful.
I don’t think we will win the Playoffs. I think Leyton Orient will do it.
Just my opinion. You are still allowed to have an opinion on this forum aren’t you? As a Charlton supporter of 65 years it goes without saying that I would love us to get promoted.But I have a sneaky feeling that the Os will do it.
I see a lot of the 98 Charlton in the current Orient side. And that's what's worrying me!
I don't think there is much between us and Stockport but strongly believe they have the harder semi which makes us slight favourites at this point. Bookies just look at where teams finished in the table so you might as well ignore them and look at the table.
Bookmakers are a little bit cleverer than that!
My take (not dissimilar to you) is that we are slight favourites. There is nothing between us and Stockport - just 2 points in league and both our games against them were draws. Stockport have the toughest semi-final against an Orient side that were there, sank like a stone after we beat them, and then came roaring back. Orient have the best last six game stats - SIX wins and their confidence will be sky high but Stockport have 9 more points in the league so will be favourites against Orient but not by much. We have the easiest (on paper) semi-final so on that basis we are favourites of the four to reach the final in my book. I would price it:
Charlton 2/1
Stockport 9/4
Wycombe 3/1
Orient 10/3
On that basis and based on best odds currently available, the smart money would be on us at 5/2 and Orient at 9/2.
I think people are overthinking it to be honest. It’s two, hopefully three games of football and frankly under the pressure and circumstances of those games anything can happen. Form is not as important in playoff matches because of their unique nature. At worst we’ve got a 25% chance and to be honest if you told me we’d be in this situation in November I’d have laughed my nuts off. Can’t say playoff matches are particularly enjoyable because of the prize at stake but whatever happens Nathan Jones has worked a small miracle and should we fall short I’m already confident next season will be just as successful.
True.
Play-offs aren’t even like cup games. They are unique because of the pressure & stakes, and anything can & will happen. Nothing would be a surprise. You can make an argument for any and every outcome.
I don’t think we will win the Playoffs. I think Leyton Orient will do it.
Just my opinion. You are still allowed to have an opinion on this forum aren’t you? As a Charlton supporter of 65 years it goes without saying that I would love us to get promoted.But I have a sneaky feeling that the Os will do it.
I see a lot of the 98 Charlton in the current Orient side. And that's what's worrying me!
Think it will be us Vs Stockport at Wembley. Just hoping a big pitch can stop them trying to make the game ugly and compact as they like to do and we can exploit the space with Small and TC.
Stockport are the standout favourites which suits us down to the ground
Not sure that would feel true on day. Finished 2 points ahead, but having come up from L2. Lost their most influential player in January. Not long ago they were non-league. Stepping out at Wembley in front of 40,000 Charlton fans & what, 15-25,000 Stockport fans? Ex Premier League club, Charlton. A club no one can dispute is playing below their level, despite the last 15 years. I think Stockport would be able to easily see themselves as underdogs, and the media will portray it that way too. Rising from the ashes to take on fallen PL side for a shot at the Championship.
Sorry Woodwork Don't think any of these reasons stand up. Consider the quality of the football played. The frequent comebacks that Stockport have made to win games. The fact they have maintained their position in the table despite losing Barry who was a prolific scorer. Two close games- no winners. They have to be serious contenders.
I don’t think we will win the Playoffs. I think Leyton Orient will do it.
Just my opinion. You are still allowed to have an opinion on this forum aren’t you? As a Charlton supporter of 65 years it goes without saying that I would love us to get promoted.But I have a sneaky feeling that the Os will do it.
Kelman with 21 goals and assist as well might well help them. I think you can make a case for 3 teams being close, only Wycombe are not at the same level (on recent form)
As many have noted, complacency/over confidence are our possibly our biggest threat vs Wycombe. They themselves are likely not in the best headspace right now either. We look a good shout for a final appearance, particularly if key men like Jones and Small are fully fit.
A final vs either Orient or Stockport looks harder to call. Our games against both could’ve been different this season. The away win at Orient was a freak turnaround thanks to their keeper having a mare. We battered Stockport at the Valley but it was pre December Charlton and we couldn’t find a winning goal. The game up at theirs could have gone either way but they had the better of it helped by one of the most lenient referees I can recall seeing. I assume we won’t get the same ref at Wembley should the two of us get that far.
I think the large Wembley pitch probably helps Orient a bit as they play good football and it will make our pressing game a little easier to play around. Vs Stockport the Wembley pitch might help the likes of TC, Small and Berry find spaces denied to them at Edgely Park.
We have a fantastic chance, but something in my gut is just giving me losing finalists vibes and I can’t shake it yet. It’s going to be a fascinating few matches and a reminder of why the playoffs are one of the sporting highlights of the year.
Stockport are the standout favourites which suits us down to the ground
Not sure that would feel true on day. Finished 2 points ahead, but having come up from L2. Lost their most influential player in January. Not long ago they were non-league. Stepping out at Wembley in front of 40,000 Charlton fans & what, 15-25,000 Stockport fans? Ex Premier League club, Charlton. A club no one can dispute is playing below their level, despite the last 15 years. I think Stockport would be able to easily see themselves as underdogs, and the media will portray it that way too. Rising from the ashes to take on fallen PL side for a shot at the Championship.
Sorry Woodwork Don't think any of these reasons stand up. Consider the quality of the football played. The frequent comebacks that Stockport have made to win games. The fact they have maintained their position in the table despite losing Barry who was a prolific scorer. Two close games- no winners. They have to be serious contenders.
Ah. I agree.
But I’m talking about perspective. Which is often different to reality. I don’t think Stockport will been seen as the favourites by anyone in a one off final, simply because of human bias. Sky will go with Stockport’s journey from non-league to a show down with ex PL club. Stockport players will tell themselves that the weight of expectation is on Charlton Athletic.
My point is simply about psychology. I think lower league players aren’t as comfortable as elite players at placing themselves above the parapet to be shot at. Indeed, I think Jones will try a ‘everyone will be against us, as they’ll like to see plucky little Orient / Wycombe or brave Stockport up, so let’s go out there and upset them as the ‘party poopers’’.
We’ve got a one in four chance in my book. Any of those teams can raise their game. A red card can turn a tie in its head (remember Llera). All to play for.
Stockport are the standout favourites which suits us down to the ground
Not sure that would feel true on day. Finished 2 points ahead, but having come up from L2. Lost their most influential player in January. Not long ago they were non-league. Stepping out at Wembley in front of 40,000 Charlton fans & what, 15-25,000 Stockport fans? Ex Premier League club, Charlton. A club no one can dispute is playing below their level, despite the last 15 years. I think Stockport would be able to easily see themselves as underdogs, and the media will portray it that way too. Rising from the ashes to take on fallen PL side for a shot at the Championship.
Sorry Woodwork Don't think any of these reasons stand up. Consider the quality of the football played. The frequent comebacks that Stockport have made to win games. The fact they have maintained their position in the table despite losing Barry who was a prolific scorer. Two close games- no winners. They have to be serious contenders.
Ah. I agree.
But I’m talking about perspective. Which is often different to reality. I don’t think Stockport will been seen as the favourites by anyone in a one off final, simply because of human bias. Sky will go with Stockport’s journey from non-league to a show down with ex PL club. Stockport players will tell themselves that the weight of expectation is on Charlton Athletic.
My point is simply about psychology. I think lower league players aren’t as comfortable as elite players at placing themselves above the parapet to be shot at. Indeed, I think Jones will try a ‘everyone will be against us, as they’ll like to see plucky little Orient / Wycombe or brave Stockport up, so let’s go out there and upset them as the ‘party poopers’’.
I wouldn’t be too worried about the spine of the team - Jones put himself on reality TV and has shown himself to be a big game performer. Coventry just seems very grounded and grew up at a big club academy, I think he feels he’s dropped to below his rightful level to get his career started. Doc, Berry, Godden have been there, done that. The likes of TC, Small, Gillesphey, Ramsay are the ones where it *might* get in the way of them producing their best and they are pr’haps the key ones who determine if we are “the best version of ourself” or not. Encouragingly, they all naturally play with a bit of a swagger on the pitch too (even the shy off the pitch TC) so perhaps them over playing is more of a concern than them freezing on the day.
You can make a case for all four teams. Surely even Wycombe can bounce back from three defeats in a row?
The reassuring thing is that none of the other teams will have thought “yeah we fancy playing Charlton”. We are definitely a team to avoid.
I don't think Wycombe can bounce back. I said this after we played them. The negativity seems to have fully set in there. I called them losing both of their remaining games. Fans hate the manager and how he sets up, rumours the players don't get on with him. Kone doesn't look like the same player under him compared to early season.
Don't want to be over confident but can see them giving it up with barely a whimper. If we go hard at them early it could turn toxic for them pretty quickly.
i think we are probably under rating wycombe and over rating both stockport and orient based on our recent games against them - if u watched our match against wrexham, you would think we were a bottom of the table outfit and if we put the same side out, we'd struggle massively. i think any of the 4 teams can beat each other and of all fixtures, i think stockport away would be the toughest as one of those small northern pitches / grounds where it just becomes a battle- well we've dodged that. We need our first choice team out and chucks on the bench for us to stand a chance of going up - that won't be the case in the first leg as chucks is suspended and we're not sure about the walking wounded, but could be in the next 2 - if that's the case i'd say we have as good a chance as any of the teams in it but any of the games could easily go wrong - the doncaster away leg was a great performance and we were by far the better team - at home, doncaster were the better team and we somehow got away with it - in 98 against sunderland, we hadn't let a goal in in 8 games and then let 4 in - i think jones is right in saying we have a 25% chance - u could argue the pressure is off wycombe as everybody thinks they've fallen apart - i don't think any one of the hopefully 3 games can be predicted
Not having Aneke for the first leg isn’t too big of a blow. He’s best for when we are chasing a goal which is likely to only be a scenario in the 2nd leg
Not having Aneke for the first leg isn’t too big of a blow. He’s best for when we are chasing a goal which is likely to only be a scenario in the 2nd leg
Imagine him being let loose, second half vs Wycombe, packed Valley, with a score to settle against the opposition. (which NJ will ensure is channelled correctly!)
Not having Aneke for the first leg isn’t too big of a blow. He’s best for when we are chasing a goal which is likely to only be a scenario in the 2nd leg
Imagine him being let loose, second half vs Wycombe, packed Valley, with a score to settle against the opposition. (which NJ will ensure is channelled correctly!)
A winning goal and a red card would be a very Chuks way to end things
Not having Aneke for the first leg isn’t too big of a blow. He’s best for when we are chasing a goal which is likely to only be a scenario in the 2nd leg
Imagine him being let loose, second half vs Wycombe, packed Valley, with a score to settle against the opposition. (which NJ will ensure is channelled correctly!)
A winning goal and a red card would be a very Chuks way to end things
I can see it now, he nets the winner and celebrates by running head first into Leahy
Not having Aneke for the first leg isn’t too big of a blow. He’s best for when we are chasing a goal which is likely to only be a scenario in the 2nd leg
Imagine him being let loose, second half vs Wycombe, packed Valley, with a score to settle against the opposition. (which NJ will ensure is channelled correctly!)
A winning goal and a red card would be a very Chuks way to end things
I can see it now, he nets the winner and celebrates by running head first into Leahy
I said all along I didn’t want to get Wycombe in a semi final. I’m a data guy by trade and in any given sample of 4 games versus another play off contender, the chances of us winning all four are very slim. Even 3 of 4 would be some going.
They simply won’t be as bad as the last game we played them. Law of averages says they have to beat us eventually.
Same with Orient isn’t it? We did the double over them too.
The only semi final opponent you would want would be Stockport?
Funnily enough I wanted Stockport for that very reason. We should have battered them at the valley.
End of the day we’ve got to beat 2 of the other 3 teams. And with a fully fit squad, and a great manager, we’ve certainly got a chance
Ludicrous reasoning, don't want either team that we battered but the team we haven't beat all season, based on law of averages? If everything came down to the law of averages over the course of the season everyone would finish on similar points tally based on the assumption that teams will end up winning as much as they lose against eachother!
I want Stockport in the final because I fancy us to beat them on a nice big pitch, in London, with us backed by double the fans, who haven't had to leave home at 6 in the morning to get to the game.
Not having Aneke for the first leg isn’t too big of a blow. He’s best for when we are chasing a goal which is likely to only be a scenario in the 2nd leg
Imagine him being let loose, second half vs Wycombe, packed Valley, with a score to settle against the opposition. (which NJ will ensure is channelled correctly!)
A winning goal and a red card would be a very Chuks way to end things
I can see it now, he nets the winner and celebrates by running head first into Leahy
Mentioned it before, but I keep having a recurring dream that Chuks scores a last minute winner at Wembley to end his years of heartache. We are up against Wrexham. I say he scores. He actually smashes it into the crossbar. The rebound cannons of a helpless George Dobson's backside and into the goal. Might have to rejig it to Pratley.
Just don't lose the first tie. Then you look at the home game as a one-off 90 minute match and I fancy us at home against anyone in that situation.
Also to add on further to my comment, we haven't lost at home since the beginning of December and have only had one goalless draw in that run, at home to Reading at the start of the year. That's formidable
Just don't lose the first tie. Then you look at the home game as a one-off 90 minute match and I fancy us at home against anyone in that situation.
I wont be surprised if thats Jones' attitude and we end up being a bit more defensive in the first leg, like what we've seen away from home for the majority of the season.
Worth remembering we potentially would have been more attack minded on the road of late, like at Wycombe, because we started having a "Nothing to lose" mindset, we'd secured the Play-Offs and had a slim chance of finishing second.
3-0 to wycombe under no pressure at home and all Charlton fans can start saying Sheffield Wednesday came back from 4-0 down . i said we’ll be back here losing to them in the play offs in a few weeks . my pessimistic gene (basically that’s everyone of them )is kicking in to overdrive and I can’t see any scenario where we get promoted through the play offs .
The only thing that worries me is us being too over confident. That because we beat Wycombe 4-0 a couple of weeks ago, we're just going to roll up and do it again. From what i've read online you'll also struggle to find a Wycombe fan who thinks the semi will be anything other than an easy win for us.
Having supported Charlton for 40 years this naturally signals danger to me! These things often have a way of coming back to bite you, as Bolton found out last season. They smashed Oxford 5-0 in the league in March, thought they were as good as promoted when they got them at Wembley...........then lost the play off final 2-0.
Don't think NJ will allow any complacency, he's going to be driving that home in training this week
It’s not just a question of complacency. I don’t think Bolton were complacent, rather that Oxford played well on the day.
The Wycombe players and manager will have learnt a lot from our last match. They will be watching that video back and will address everything we did to stop us doing it again. They might also look back at what they were doing better earlier in the season and show us more of that ’version of themselves ’ next time.
The only thing that worries me is us being too over confident. That because we beat Wycombe 4-0 a couple of weeks ago, we're just going to roll up and do it again. From what i've read online you'll also struggle to find a Wycombe fan who thinks the semi will be anything other than an easy win for us.
Having supported Charlton for 40 years this naturally signals danger to me! These things often have a way of coming back to bite you, as Bolton found out last season. They smashed Oxford 5-0 in the league in March, thought they were as good as promoted when they got them at Wembley...........then lost the play off final 2-0.
Don't think NJ will allow any complacency, he's going to be driving that home in training this week
It’s not just a question of complacency. I don’t think Bolton were complacent, rather that Oxford played well on the day.
The Wycombe players and manager will have learnt a lot from our last match. They will be watching that video back and will address everything we did to stop us doing it again. They might also look back at what they were doing better earlier in the season and show us more of that ’version of themselves ’ next time.
I’d take a 0-0 draw away if offered it now.
Whilst they will analyse the game against us, Wycombes manager only knows how to play one way, park the bus and nick a game 1-0. He is not going to change his entire philosophy to counter us for 2 games (whilst some tweaks are enevitable so they do not get crushed). Wycombe have clearly hired the wrong guy for the type of way they were playing earlier in the season and they will not get out of this style until he leaves.
I can see us winning 4-5 to 1-2 in aggregate, maybe more if we score early goals in the first leg like in the away league match.
Whilst this makes me sounds confident, Wycombe fans have pretty much thrown in the towel.
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Nobody in the play offs will fancy playing us - least of all Wycombe!
Whoops - Sorry
A final vs either Orient or Stockport looks harder to call. Our games against both could’ve been different this season. The away win at Orient was a freak turnaround thanks to their keeper having a mare. We battered Stockport at the Valley but it was pre December Charlton and we couldn’t find a winning goal. The game up at theirs could have gone either way but they had the better of it helped by one of the most lenient referees I can recall seeing. I assume we won’t get the same ref at Wembley should the two of us get that far.
I think the large Wembley pitch probably helps Orient a bit as they play good football and it will make our pressing game a little easier to play around. Vs Stockport the Wembley pitch might help the likes of TC, Small and Berry find spaces denied to them at Edgely Park.
We have a fantastic chance, but something in my gut is just giving me losing finalists vibes and I can’t shake it yet. It’s going to be a fascinating few matches and a reminder of why the playoffs are one of the sporting highlights of the year.
Don't want to be over confident but can see them giving it up with barely a whimper. If we go hard at them early it could turn toxic for them pretty quickly.
I want Stockport in the final because I fancy us to beat them on a nice big pitch, in London, with us backed by double the fans, who haven't had to leave home at 6 in the morning to get to the game.
We are up against Wrexham. I say he scores. He actually smashes it into the crossbar. The rebound cannons of a helpless George Dobson's backside and into the goal.
Might have to rejig it to Pratley.
Worth remembering we potentially would have been more attack minded on the road of late, like at Wycombe, because we started having a "Nothing to lose" mindset, we'd secured the Play-Offs and had a slim chance of finishing second.
i said we’ll be back here losing to them in the play offs in a few weeks .
my pessimistic gene (basically that’s everyone of them )is kicking in to overdrive and I can’t see any scenario where we get promoted through the play offs .