That'll teach you not to take your chances... I do like the theme of how all the Away teams are putting up a good showing in these first legs, the teams that "should" be getting results, are doing so.
On the halfway line at Meadow Lane. Back home at 05:30, then up at 11:00 to go to Adams Park tomorrow.
Not sure what folk are seeing on TV, but they have given Wimbledon a little over half of the east stand and have the other half of the stand completely empty. I was expecting Notts County fans in there. Their south stand is also practically empty. It's quite disappointing how few tickets they have managed to sell for a playoff semi-final on a Saturday.
Bit concerned none of the home teams have had a win as it feels one of them has to. Hopefully Chesterfield will beat Walsall (which I think they will) so that's one less law of average to worry about.
Bit concerned none of the home teams have had a win as it feels one of them has to. Hopefully Chesterfield will beat Walsall (which I think they will) so that's one less law of average to worry about.
Maybe it’ll average out with lots of 2nd leg home wins!
That'll teach you not to take your chances... I do like the theme of how all the Away teams are putting up a good showing in these first legs, the teams that "should" be getting results, are doing so.
So no pressure Charlton
Last time we were in the play offs weren't we the only team to progress to Wembley with home advantage in the 2nd leg?
Bit concerned none of the home teams have had a win as it feels one of them has to. Hopefully Chesterfield will beat Walsall (which I think they will) so that's one less law of average to worry about.
???
The home teams in the first leg are the weaker ones, so you'd expect them to struggle to win.
Bit concerned none of the home teams have had a win as it feels one of them has to. Hopefully Chesterfield will beat Walsall (which I think they will) so that's one less law of average to worry about.
???
The home teams in the first leg are the weaker ones, so you'd expect them to struggle to win.
Not necessarily. 1 point separated Notts and Wimbledon tonight, hardly a weaker team.
You still expect at least a few of the teams in the home legs to avoid defeat or pick up a win.
So far 3 losses and a draw. Hopefully that patterns stays the same tomorrow.
Since all fans were allowed back in to stadiums post-Covid (no reduced home crowds)
2024 season first legs: 2 home wins, 2 draws, 2 away wins (Bolton, Doncaster)
2023 season first legs: 4 home wins, 2 draws, 0 away wins
2022 season first legs: 4 home wins, 1 draw, 1 away win (Forest)
2025 season first legs so far: 0 home wins, 1 draw, 3 away wins (Sheff Utd, Sunderland, Wimbledon)
This season’s away winners (3 of 4) have already matched the total number of away winners from the last three seasons combined (3 of 18). It’s traditionally quite hard to win that first leg away from home.
That'll teach you not to take your chances... I do like the theme of how all the Away teams are putting up a good showing in these first legs, the teams that "should" be getting results, are doing so.
So no pressure Charlton
Last time we were in the play offs weren't we the only team to progress to Wembley with home advantage in the 2nd leg?
Since all fans were allowed back in to stadiums post-Covid (no reduced home crowds)
2024 season first legs: 2 home wins, 2 draws, 2 away wins (Bolton, Doncaster)
2023 season first legs: 4 home wins, 2 draws, 0 away wins
2022 season first legs: 4 home wins, 1 draw, 1 away win (Forest)
2025 season first legs so far: 0 home wins, 1 draw, 3 away wins (Sheff Utd, Sunderland, Wimbledon)
This season’s away winners (3 of 4) have already matched the total number of away winners from the last three seasons combined (3 of 18). It’s traditionally quite hard to win that first leg away from home.
The thing with law of averages / law of large numbers is that they are pretty much irrelevant to singular upcoming events.
Home win, draw and away win are still on the table today. As they are in any one off event.
The conversation here is much like “we just had three tails in a row so it’s got to be heads next”. Humans look for patterns but it doesn’t work that way. Each event is independent of the others.
If anything, if you want to feel better, the prior three years of 10 home wins out of 18 might be considered an over performance of the home sides (better than “odds on” at home?) and this year is when the “correction” or balancing out is occurring. But even 18 is a small, not large, number.
Decent cross from Asiimwe, first time he's really managed to get forward but their Striker was penalised for a foul... I do wonder if he MIGHT be Small's replacement if we dont go up.
Comments
So no pressure Charlton
The home teams in the first leg are the weaker ones, so you'd expect them to struggle to win.
You still expect at least a few of the teams in the home legs to avoid defeat or pick up a win.
So far 3 losses and a draw. Hopefully that patterns stays the same tomorrow.
2023 season first legs: 4 home wins, 2 draws, 0 away wins
2022 season first legs: 4 home wins, 1 draw, 1 away win (Forest)
2025 season first legs so far: 0 home wins, 1 draw, 3 away wins (Sheff Utd, Sunderland, Wimbledon)
This season’s away winners (3 of 4) have already matched the total number of away winners from the last three seasons combined (3 of 18). It’s traditionally quite hard to win that first leg away from home.
Home win, draw and away win are still on the table today. As they are in any one off event.
The conversation here is much like “we just had three tails in a row so it’s got to be heads next”. Humans look for patterns but it doesn’t work that way. Each event is independent of the others.
If anything, if you want to feel better, the prior three years of 10 home wins out of 18 might be considered an over performance of the home sides (better than “odds on” at home?) and this year is when the “correction” or balancing out is occurring. But even 18 is a small, not large, number.