Savings and Investments thread

9200 please

cantersaddick said:

Rob7Lee said:

Covered End said:

A quick win could be for the government to set up & "advertise" a simple online system where all the people that want to pay more tax can do so in a matter of clicks.

Presumably there is a reason why I've never heard it even suggested?

Whilst it couldn't cause an issue that I can see It’d raise very little, I’m sure I’m not the only one that could and do find 101 other places to give money that would be better used than letting government waste even more! 

cantersaddick said:

Rob7Lee said:

cantersaddick said:

Rob7Lee said:

cantersaddick said:

red10 said:

cantersaddick said:

I was more talking about the frankly ridiculous notion that someone might "never have claimed a penny in their life" when reality is that everyone benefits directly and indirectly. 

I wasn't really talking about the rights and wrongs of IHT specifically. I understand your point of view here. Its not one I agree with, but I see where it comes from. 

Fiscal drag is a huge huge issue (don't get me started) but IHT is one where the thresholds have actually moved (not enough) since 2010. Most haven't at all.

As in I have never been on benefits and have paid in a significant of money into the system, so basically I have paid my dues. 

But you have taken from the system in countless other ways as we all have. And will continue to do so at an increasing rate until you die. The focus on benefits is all wrong. That's just one small way that people take from the system over a lifetime. 

"I've paid my dues" comes across as a pretty entitled way of thinking about it. And i thought it was us millennials who were meant to be the entitled ones.

People (and government!) will focus on any element they think has become unfair or out of control. The benefit bill has become unmanageable in size and is set to even grow considerably more. It's also partly back to what we were saying the other day, 1 in 5 people of working age are not in (paid) work. Even after WWII and almost every year up until about 7 years ago it was about 4-5%.

It's like Motorbility where thats running into issues (I have to be careful what I say on that as under an NDA), did you know that scheme buys almost 25% of ALL new cars sold in the UK?

Yes, that's the perception. And I get why people are inclined to look below them and blame people who are having a harder life than them therefore may take more. But people are massively undervaluing what they themselves take to make themselves feel better about it. If you've had 2+ kids and live to old age your NHS costs will likely be larger than their benefit bill. If a loved one has had cancer treatment (or major op, or even a hip replacement) it'll dwarf it. Many people who think they are net contributors because they only think about cash payments are not. They are net takers. Yes some may be net takers by more but the entitlement of "I've paid in my whole life" is just wrong.

I don't think it's perception about the size of the benefit costs and how it's increased over the last few years, over 300bn (now roughly running at 10%+ of GDP and a quarter of all government expenditure), we've all seen the latest in parliament on this, perception it is not.

Nearly 4m working age people receive health related benefits, up from 1.2m 5 years ago. Thats a huge increase and isn't a perception, it's fact.
The rise in economic inactivity in 18-24 year olds since the pandemic, is not perception, nor is the 18-64 year olds increase since 2019 (now over 11m in the band are not in paid work, over 9.5m are not unemployed, they are not looking for work or available to start any work).

The 'bill' as it stands will only get bigger especially as we live longer and expect there to be many more pensioners in the next 5-10 years (sadly in this country we have always funded state pension each year with that years income, there is no historic built up pot to use).

It's not about 'look below' as you put it, or who is or isn't a net contributor or taker (there will always be both, for a multitude of reasons and it can't work any other way). I'm 100% sure my wife is a net 'taker' based on the fact she pays almost no income tax, i'm not looking down on her! I'd envisage i'm a net contributor and she's certainly not looking up on me I can tell you! :-)

We've been here earlier this week, but if government spending has increased from broadly 700m to 1.3trn in recent years, something has to give as it's not as if anyone feels their lives are particularly better, there's still holes in the road, waiting lists, lack of availability for GP/Dentist etc.

Anyone who doesn't think we have a completely broken system from left to right and top to bottom needs to give their head a rather serious wobble.

Again, not my point which was that the attitude of "I've paid therefore I am entitled to my pension and use of the NHS and all other services for the rest of my life" and using others take more as a justification to take what you need and moan about tax. I just think that entire attitude is wrong and the cost of those services show it to be bullshit irrelevant of what others use. 

To address your other points:
I don't disagree that the welfare bill is a lot and soon to be unsustainable. We have to look at the causes of this rather than thinking we can simply cut our way out of it. PIP was brought in as a cut compared to the old system (DLA). Its been cut 3 or 4 times at least since then. Each time it hasn't saved as much as they were hoping and the bill has continued to rise. We have to solve the structural issues in our society and economy if we want to reduce this. We have to bring back prevention and early intervention into health, education, crime drivers etc. solve the low pay issue, invest in making society function again and then we can start to reduce spend on these things, or rather it will naturally happen. We cant force it to happen when the conditions are so hostile.

We've cut our way into this situation thanks to 15 years of Austerity (sure start for example would have massively reduced this reliance). There is no way we are going to cut our way out of it. 

The language used in the press, in government and evidenced on this thread (not you) is very much along the lines of looking below.

I agree with most you say there (especially sure start, glad it's not only me that recognizes this). however where I disagree quite considerably is "the welfare bill is a lot and soon to be unsustainable". Government spending which will include the welfare bill became unsustainable probably 15 years ago. There's a reason debt interest is now over 10% of tax receipts and despite a near doubling of expenditure almost nothing has improved. Cuts didn't solely lead us here, that path was already laid and the 2010 government doubled down and sped that up.

And that for me is the conundrum, I agree about what we need to invest in, but we aren't even remotely close to balancing current expenditure, let alone everything that needs more money or even new money. We are already in that viscous circle downwards and no amount of extra tax is going to fix that, back to where I started over a week ago, unless you fix the economy and growth, we will continue a downward spiral on all levels for the rest of my lifetime. Or you make some extremely tough and unpopular decisions which government won't as they'd be out next time around.

As for looking below, probably agree with some press, although there's plenty of others that are looking in the opposite direction (wealth tax) - it cuts both ways, almost everyone feels aggrieved by something!

I get what you are saying but maintain we aren't going to fix the economy or get growth until we fix the structural economic and societal problems.

If we look post WW2 when the debt to GDP ratio was much much worse than it is now (Peak 270% now ~90's ish). Despite the level of debt and fiscal situation there was massive investment into solving the issues facing society at the time. Massive levels of house building, large employment schemes (public works etc.) massive infrastructure building investment, massive investments in education, set up the NHS and the welfare state and much much more. These were enablers to growth. And over time they were able to unwind some of the public cost of them and then reduce the size of the state. What they didn't do was say " we cant solve any of these problems until we get growth to pay for it". 

Yes Growth is what fixed the debt-GDP ratio but that was only possible by solving the structural problems and making strides for society. You have to set the foundation for growth or you will forever be stuck in this cycle. 

Treat COVID, the financial crisis and Austerity as a war debt. Invest in the foundations for a productive economy and a functioning society and the growth will come. Anything other than that is a continuation of managed decline (whilst hoping a genie will pull some growth out their arse with nothing to actually enable it). 

UK GDP growth under the last Tory Parliament 2019-24 was 3% over five years. Yesterday saw the IMF adjust their forcast to suggest 1.2% this year and 1.4% next year. One site suggests that UK GDP is currently $3.6TRN and is set to hit $4.7TRN by 2029. Perhaps we have some growth after all?! Will the national debt also grow to $4.7TRN in that time?

I don't know the answer but as long Debt:GDP stays below 100% and there is real growth suggesting future UK is able to pay interest then the bond markets should be happy enough to lend at 4%? For some reason longer term debt is priced around 5% but that requires research and expertise to explain.

Many would agree that we require as a nation massive investment in infrastructure so as to assist growth as well as improve people's standard of living, be that housing, education, travel or health buildings. One could say that we have a crisis / opportunity in our hands which justifies massive investment in that which is needed for the future. But where is the vision let alone the political will?

What's he on about? Just google 4th industrial revolution and consider the impact of tech on transport, health, education and jobs. Consider for a moment that one can make a serious contribution to an organisation whilst working anywhere and meeting colleagues perhaps once a month in person! But to achieve the full potential of said revolution requires serious investment as well as massive transformation.

Once one touches the surface of these questions and the £Trillions in question, it becomes a tad wierd to hear about a so called black hole of £20BN here and there... we should refer to these by their true name rounding errors on a £1.3 TRN Gov't budget.

But finally we should consider that it isn't as easy as talking big on numbers. For we have had several decades of neoliberal thinking, shrinking the state and "paying off the national debt". One might imagine that the whole of the Treasury and much of the Civil Service is soaked in this ration mentality always looking at savings, but never outcomes!

US markets dipped a bit earlier after being higher most of the day. Reason was Jerome Powell from the Fed said that US interest rates weren't coming down just yet and would have to wait until September for their next meeting to see what US inflation is doing (a by product of Trumps tariff policy).

I wonder if this will have a bearing on UK interest rates. Next BOE rate setting meeting is next Thursday. Markets are expecting a 0.25% cut. I expect they will but they might hold fire & wait for the US to act first.

Siv_in_Norfolk said:

7400 ta

Put that retirement off boys and girls!

Entries are locked in, I'm hoping it's going to be more of a Thread killer 6 months than a Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch 

If it's the latter I will be putting off my retirement @bobmunro

Name	Level
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Siv_In_Norfolk	7400
Lenglover	8301
bobmunro	8452
HardyAddick	8548
Fortune 82nd Minute	8571
CAFCWest	8621
PragueAddick	8725
holyjo	8810
Redman	8876
LargeAddick	8884
Pedro45	8925
Bangkokaddick	8998
Rob7Lee	9000
Solidgone	9021
Huskaris	9025
BalladMan	9058
Jon_CAFC_	9088
golfaddick	9101
WishIdStayedInThe Pub	9101
wwaddick	9104
fat man on a moped	9116
thecat	9136
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RalphMilne	9168
Addickinedi	9176
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Carter	9212
Covered End	9220
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blackpool72	9245
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Hornchurch	9275
meldrew66	9301
WHAddick	9335
StrikerFirmani	9365
cafcpolo	9395
Diebythesword	9400
Addick Addict	9424
IdleHans	9434
@TelMc32	9450
Arsenetatters	9525
Friend or Defoe	9657
Jints	9750
Thread Killer	9761

PragueAddick said:

Anyone got an update on all those millionaires selling up? I ask because the FT, having a clear case of buyer's remorse for swallowing that rumour, now has a corker of an article which is currently the most read on the site. It is by Neal Hudson, who is " a housing market analyst and founder of the consultancy BuiltPlace". It is far too long to cut and paste and the FT hates it when subscribers do that, so I've got Claude to do an executive summary. But it's full of highly inconvenient facts and I highly recommend the full article if you can get hold of it.  

Executive Summary: London's Luxury Property Market Crisis

Bottom Line: London's high-end property market has been fundamentally broken for over a decade due to punitive taxation and poor economics, not recent non-dom rule changes. Despite prices being at decade lows, luxury homes remain economically irrational purchases.

Key Points:

Current Market Decline: Prime central London prices fell 3.7% in Q2 2025, with sales of £5m+ homes down 15% year-on-year. While blamed on wealthy non-doms fleeing new inheritance tax rules, this masks deeper structural issues.

Economic Reality Check: Using a £20m Mayfair mansion example:

• Crushing stamp duty: £2.3m for UK buyers, £3.7m for overseas buyers
• Terrible yields: Just 2.9% gross rental return vs. government bonds
• Capital destruction: Central London luxury homes down 22.4% nominally (-45% real terms) since 2014 peak
• Market dysfunction: Properties sit empty for months; the example mansion has been available to rent for a year

The Real Culprit - 2014 Stamp Duty Reform: The "killer blow" wasn't recent non-dom changes but stamp duty restructuring a decade ago. Moving from flat-rate to tiered system increased duty from 7% to 10.3% on £10m homes. Subsequent hits included additional duty on second homes (2016), Brexit uncertainty, and economic malaise.

Supply Glut Emerging: Properties for sale (£5m+) have surged 68% over three years vs. 26% for broader central London market, suggesting more downward pressure ahead.

Limited Appeal Remains: Trophy status, safe haven qualities, and cheap debt access via property-backed loans provide some attraction, but can't overcome the fundamentally broken economics.

Market Significance: Though only 0.1% of transactions, £5m+ homes represent 4.2% of transaction value and 11.3% of stamp duty revenue.

Conclusion: Even at decade-low prices with limited growth prospects and high interest rates, most buyers still consider London luxury properties overpriced. The author notes ironically that his favorite Mayfair pub was converted to a mansion in 2009 - given subsequent house price performance, "maybe they should have kept it as a pub."

The piece argues London's luxury market faces structural problems making it economically irrational regardless of political changes.

The article doesn't really cover why the recent reductions though if the market has been dead for a decade and also sites that actual sales amounts are holding up. The stamp duty though on this properties is painful, millions!

hoof_it_up_to_benty said:

Interesting to see how US trading partners respond to the latest tariff rates and the effect on the markets. I just hope there isn't too much chaps.

They're tanking.

golfaddick said:

RaplhMilne said:

High Court Judgement on the alleged car finance mis-selling  is being announced at 16:35 today.  Wether the increase in interest rate to pay commission to dealers without customer knowledge was illegal, is not the actual case result being announced. But, related claim that any non disclosed commission were illegal. 

Again alleged to be a Friday at 16:35  so that the announcement can not have a knee jerk affect on the Markets, and crash shares. 

So should I be out of my Lloyds shares as they are one of the worst affected, if it goes the wrong way.

I cant advise on single shares, but Lloyd's have already set aside millions for this. If it goes their way their share price could rise. If it goes against then they might dip a bit but the market has probably already taken that into account.

And I doubt the judgement is being announced at 16.35.....and certainly not for market purposes  !!!

That’s what was reported on the BBC breakfast news this morning.

bobmunro said:

golfaddick said:

RaplhMilne said:

High Court Judgement on the alleged car finance mis-selling  is being announced at 16:35 today.  Wether the increase in interest rate to pay commission to dealers without customer knowledge was illegal, is not the actual case result being announced. But, related claim that any non disclosed commission were illegal. 

Again alleged to be a Friday at 16:35  so that the announcement can not have a knee jerk affect on the Markets, and crash shares. 

So should I be out of my Lloyds shares as they are one of the worst affected, if it goes the wrong way.

I cant advise on single shares, but Lloyd's have already set aside millions for this. If it goes their way their share price could rise. If it goes against then they might dip a bit but the market has probably already taken that into account.

And I doubt the judgement is being announced at 16.35.....and certainly not for market purposes  !!!

I don't think it will go there way though.

Hope it don’t I got at least 5 claims against them which might rise to 11 :-)

As an addendum to the above. Markets are more worried about Trump than they are about hidden commission payment on car finance deals. 

US markets have now opened & they are falling. Dow Jones down 1.4% and S&P500 down 1.6%. The FTSE100 was down 0.5% at lunch but is now falling further - currently down almost 1%. 

European markets had fallen more than the UK this morning & are falling further still. Germany down 2.3%, France down 2.8% and the EuroStox down 2.6%.

Welcome to Trumponomics.

Supreme Court ruling.........

Basically the guy who appealed gets recompense (the commission plus interest) but everyone else can piss off. 

Nothing to see. A whole lot of nonsense over nothing. Fancy having to announce it after the markets shut in case it affects them. Fuck me. Better have the Budget after hours if that's the case. 

Southbank said:

golfaddick said:

As an addendum to the above. Markets are more worried about Trump than they are about hidden commission payment on car finance deals. 

US markets have now opened & they are falling. Dow Jones down 1.4% and S&P500 down 1.6%. The FTSE100 was down 0.5% at lunch but is now falling further - currently down almost 1%. 

European markets had fallen more than the UK this morning & are falling further still. Germany down 2.3%, France down 2.8% and the EuroStox down 2.6%.

Welcome to Trumponomics.

Except US stock markets, especially tech, have gone through the roof since he was elected

Dont think that's true. The US market has been going up since the Pandemic, mainly driven by the Magnificent 7. But since the end of last year the big tech stocks have cooled. The Dow is up 2.75% since Jan but the wider S&P500 is up 6.5%. The best US funds are those not invested in the Mag 7. 

golfaddick said:

This car finance malarkey is making me laugh. Consumer groups still saying you should make a claim  / unfair agreements/ consumers not knowing what they were signing  blah blah blah.

Compensation culture… like people who claim to have not understood why their “Interest Only” mortgage has not been paid off.