Championship Games 25/26

elbiglad said:

kinveachyaddick said:

killerandflash said:

I always think that in such a tight league, it's getting wins that's crucial. Grinding out draws is better than nothing, but it won't transform your season. The teams below us (other than Pompey)  are really struggling for wins at the moment, whereas we have 3 in the last 6 games.

7 away from the bottom 3 and only 8 from the playoffs. Not safe yet, but we don't look like a bottom 3 side.

This is something I've been banging on since the Curbs days when he loved a draw but I used to point out that a streaky 1-0 win followed by a 6-0 lose is 50% better than two hard-fought draws.

In this league if you lost half your matches but won the other half, you'd have got in the play-offs, two of the last three seasons...

My friend and I have this debate a lot. I am not denying that points-wise winning one game is more valuable than two draws... but... the impact of a loss can be more than just 0 points. Getting pumped by Southampton seemed to set us back dramatically. Going for it late and conceding a la Porsmouth  (admittedly a bit of a fluke) was very (very!) tough to take and felt hugely damaging. However, there aren't many better feelings than late equalisers (Hull away) or winners (West Brom, Watford) and the benefit this can have for fans and players is immeasurable.

So, I am broadly in favour of going for it more often than not, but context matters. I was a bit nervous against QPR the other night and understood why we naturally sat back. A late goal in that game would've felt like a huge step back for us. Even though we were at home and on the back of a win, a point felt like a big deal. Blackburn away frustrated some, but we were not playing well in the second half and were lucky to be drawing. To throw caution to the wind at that point wouldn't have made sense to me: protect what we have, take the point and accept you weren't quite at it on the day.

It's a good point (if you pardon the pun!) of contention. Curbs definitely agreed with you but I've always been of the view that points are the only thing that counts and things like getting hammered by Southampton shouldn't affect the players confidence etc and lead to a bad run.

I think some teams have a mentality/culture that is more similar to mine (e.g West Ham which is one of the reasons I felt Curbs' love of solid point wouldn't work out there despite it being his true love - and I was, of course, proved right...).

But a good debate to have nonetheless.

Sword65pf said:

CaptainRobbo said:

Honestly think Blackburn are screwed.
Don't see them picking up a single point in their next 9 games.
QPR A - Nope
Preston H - Loss to local rivals 
Bristol City H - Unlikely to get anything.
Derby A - Might need an abacus to keep score.  🧮 
Portsmouth H - Pompey regularly picking up points.
Oxford A - Oxford not great but show a lot more fight than Blackburn. 
Millwall A - Easy 2-0 to the scum. 👊 
Middlesbrough H - Yeah right, Boro could be Champions by then. 🏆 
Birmingham A - Ratboy will have a field day. 🐀 
West Brom H - First time they might get something but too late by then. 👇 

If only football was as easy as this to predict👍

That's why you never see a poor bookmaker.

kinveachyaddick said:

killerandflash said:

kinveachyaddick said:

killerandflash said:

I always think that in such a tight league, it's getting wins that's crucial. Grinding out draws is better than nothing, but it won't transform your season. The teams below us (other than Pompey)  are really struggling for wins at the moment, whereas we have 3 in the last 6 games.

7 away from the bottom 3 and only 8 from the playoffs. Not safe yet, but we don't look like a bottom 3 side.

This is something I've been banging on since the Curbs days when he loved a draw but I used to point out that a streaky 1-0 win followed by a 6-0 lose is 50% better than two hard-fought draws.

In this league if you lost half your matches but won the other half, you'd have got in the play-offs, two of the last three seasons...

I always think back to 19/20, where in one game we conceded a last minute equaliser at home to Hull, then in the next one scored a last minute equaliser against QPR.

I remember the great scenes after Naby's goal, BUT if we had held on against Hull, and lost to QPR, the extra 1 point would have kept us up.

This 100%. You are obviously someone who gets it! 

Not really sure how this supports the theory of it's better to go for games and accept you'll lose some. To me it just shows that every point matters. One more hard-fought draw that year and we'd have stayed up.

For what it's worth, in that season we conceded a lot of late goals and failed to see games out. Perhaps a more pragmatic approach would've seen us stay up. Just having had a quick look, here are goals conceded beyond 80 minutes in the last fifteen games alone:
1. 95th min away at Sheffield Wednesday, 1 point dropped.
2. 81st min home to Millwall, 1 point dropped.
3. 85th min away at Brentford, 1 point dropped.
4. 93rd min away at Birmingham, 2 points dropped.

During the same period, we only scored one goal after 80 mins: in the 93rd min to save a point at home to Wigan. 

You have to consider the context. It makes sense to go for it away v QPR in 19/20 (and this year), because we were losing. Conceding another will only impact goal difference - which still matters, but not as often (for the record, one more point and goal difference would've seen us stay up in 19/20). However going for a win v QPR at home the other night, potentially losing a point, disappointing a Friday night crowd and halting the small amount of momentum gained from the Leicester match could be hugely damaging to morale and confidence.

Last year we were brilliant beyond 80 minutes. We scored a lot of late goals because we were an in form fit team aiming for promotion. It makes a lot more sense to risk it then than it does when you aren't a very good team who are fighting for your lives.

*Edit: just realised I put them all down as away games and two points dropped, a copy and paste error. 

The games that cost you are ones you should have won but drew (end up -2 points) as opposed to ones you might have drawn but lost late on (-1 point).

From memory, we played Forest off the park early in the season at the Valley (Taylor header) but didn't get a second and then Leko missed a sitter midway through the 2nd half in front of the Covered End to seal it.

They then equalised but was a game we should easily have won. That cost us more than Wednesday scoring a late winner at Hillsborough.

kinveachyaddick said:

elbiglad said:

kinveachyaddick said:

killerandflash said:

kinveachyaddick said:

killerandflash said:

I always think that in such a tight league, it's getting wins that's crucial. Grinding out draws is better than nothing, but it won't transform your season. The teams below us (other than Pompey)  are really struggling for wins at the moment, whereas we have 3 in the last 6 games.

7 away from the bottom 3 and only 8 from the playoffs. Not safe yet, but we don't look like a bottom 3 side.

This is something I've been banging on since the Curbs days when he loved a draw but I used to point out that a streaky 1-0 win followed by a 6-0 lose is 50% better than two hard-fought draws.

In this league if you lost half your matches but won the other half, you'd have got in the play-offs, two of the last three seasons...

I always think back to 19/20, where in one game we conceded a last minute equaliser at home to Hull, then in the next one scored a last minute equaliser against QPR.

I remember the great scenes after Naby's goal, BUT if we had held on against Hull, and lost to QPR, the extra 1 point would have kept us up.

This 100%. You are obviously someone who gets it! 

Not really sure how this supports the theory of it's better to go for games and accept you'll lose some. To me it just shows that every point matters. One more hard-fought draw that year and we'd have stayed up.

For what it's worth, in that season we conceded a lot of late goals and failed to see games out. Perhaps a more pragmatic approach would've seen us stay up. Just having had a quick look, here are goals conceded beyond 80 minutes in the last fifteen games alone:
1. 95th min away at Sheffield Wednesday, 2 points dropped.
2. 81st min home to Millwall, 1 point dropped.
3. 85th min away at Brentford, 1 point dropped.
4. 93rd min away at Birmingham, 1 point dropped.

During the same period, we only scored one goal after 80 mins: in the 93rd min to save a point at home to Wigan. 

You have to consider the context. It makes sense to go for it away v QPR in 19/20 (and this year), because we were losing. Conceding another will only impact goal difference - which still matters, but not as often (for the record, one more point and goal difference would've seen us stay up in 19/20). However going for a win v QPR at home the other night, potentially losing a point, disappointing a Friday night crowd and halting the small amount of momentum gained from the Leicester match could be hugely damaging to morale and confidence.

Last year we were brilliant beyond 80 minutes. We scored a lot of late goals because we were an in form fit team aiming for promotion. It makes a lot more sense to risk it then than it does when you aren't a very good team who are fighting for your lives.

Your point doesn't really stand up though as Brum for example we were winning and then had ten men behind the ball plus the bus and they still equalised. As Golfie would say, if we'd gone on the attack and a got a second goal that win alone would have kept us up.

I can't remember much about the other games but unless we were throwing men forward while level (which is probably unlikely, especially in the away games) I don't think the argument makes sense either.

My main argument is that every point matters. If you shut up shop early and manage to hold on to one point rather than go for it, it might feel a bit flat in the moment but it could be the difference between staying up and not. 

My second point is that context matters. We would all like Charlton to be City and go score two, three and four to kill opponents off. That is not our game at all. In 2019/20 we were the third lowest scorers in the league. This year we are the fifth lowest. How realistic is it that we will score a second if we decide to go out on the attack? It is human nature to sit back and protect what you have, especially when you are at the wrong end of the table.

Perhaps my view is a bit old fashioned and I'm not thinking from a 'Moneyball' perspective, but I think our league position and style of play means that this approach isn't right for us at all times.

QPR 0-1 Blackburn...😒

Pompey winning. I think they’ll be OK anyway but would much rather them below us.

ForeverAddickted said:

Laddick01 said:

Pompey winning. I think they’ll be OK anyway but would much rather them below us.

No they're not? - They've just scored a beautiful team goal, but was disallowed

They thought they had scored..
They were wrong
They were wrong...😉