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Grand National 2026
Comments
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To put a final touch on this year's GN, this is (or was, RIP) my Maximus that brought me the last three best GN winnings
Love them both, the cat and the horse.4 -
Wow, what a beauty @Starrynight
It had to be.1 -
indeed
such a cool cat and also very cool horse, both beautiful!1 -
Hmm
I see the odds shortening for Ayr on Saturday and most bookies are still 4 places.
Definitely want the extra places on this one.
Just gonna have to make sure one of my lads scores.1 -
Chasingouttheblues has been cut from 14/1 by most bookies today with a couple now going 10/1. They clearly have zero clue about my lack of success in long distance handicaps!PeanutsMolloy said:Hmm
I see the odds shortening for Ayr on Saturday and most bookies are still 4 places.
Definitely want the extra places on this one.
Just gonna have to make sure one of my lads scores.2 -
Ladbrokes do 5 places1
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Hoots Mon.
Looking very much like it will be a Soft-ground Scottish GN, I'm wary of the Good-ground form of Cheltenham and will reluctantly pass on Ask Brewster. Allows me room for one with a smidge of e/w value
Adding to my first selection a couple proven at 4m+ on the ground and, notwithstanding the lousy prices, the now-doubly jinxed fella (I can't have @Addick Addict pick one at last and not join the party):
MONTREGARD 10/1
ISAAC DES OBEAUX 10/1
CHASINGOUTTHEBLUES 12/1
GIT MAKER 20/1 (6 places Skybet), staying on 3rd in this on Soft 2 years ago (now 4lb lower mark, off which 3rd LTO in Mid Nat)
Horrible prices but hopefully we'll net the winner and Git Maker will make the frame.
Beannachd leat ya bloody sassanachs3 -
Right, I'm questioning King of Answers. He can run off Soft/Hy but himself will be too heavy at 11-12. As Seven mentioned on the other forum, the top weight of winners last 9 years was 11-10, and with soft ground I don't see how that could change to anything higher. Might place maybe.
Jockeys assigned.1 -
Yes. And that 11-10 winner was the defending Champ Vicente.StarryNight said:Right, I'm questioning King of Answers. He can run of Soft/Hy but himself will be too heavy at 11-12. As Seven mentioned on the other forum, the top weight of winners last 9 years was 11-10, and with soft ground I don't see how that could change to anything higher. Might place maybe.
Jockeys assigned.Though personally, if I was keen on a runner I wouldn’t rule out carrying a big weight on Soft ground. It has been done.
Depends how keen!2 -
There were 2 outliers (so far as my model's pedigree evaluations were concerned) that made the frame last Saturday: Jordans and Johnnywho.
It's always interesting looking into what the model missed as regards pedigrees and you often end up with an "OMG, why the f*** didn't I see that" moment.
That's true of JORDANS, which is now fully reconciled. It required:
1. A fairly modest tweak to the model's Linebreeding credits (extending it to Timeform-rated 135+ stallions from TF138+ rated, which also benefited a former winner and four <10L near-missers Minella Times, Blaklion, Gaillard Du Mesnil, The Big Dog and Iroko and, importantly, strengthened the outperformance factor) and
2. A re-evaluation of his sire Coastal Path who, while not a Northern Dancer descendant, was materially linebred to ND and, like his half-brother Martaline (sire of Vanillier), had a potent Wild Risk descendant (Derby-winner Busted) as his 3rd damsire.
With Jordans 3rd on Saturday, Coastal Path's progeny's record at 37f+ is now an eyebrow-raising 6 places from 8 runs.
These 2 tweaks combine to elevate Jordans' Pedigree rating to 5 from 2 prior to the Off.
I've already explained that I didn't think he quite got home and that, in my opinion, irrespective of the ride he was given, he looks to me more that a 29~30f horse than a 4 miler (like Blaklion).
We'll no doubt find out for sure next year.
From my model's perspective, like Iroko (now also a 5), while Jordans' pedigree is strong enough for him to repeat his place, in terms of breadth and presence of key components, it remains crucially short of a perfect fit with a modern GN winner's.
JOHNNYWHO is proving a trickier nut to crack, having been rated 0 prior to Saturday but there are a couple of interesting new angles that will require a trawling through of all 495 runners since 2013 to verify - one for the summer holidays I think.
He could be the first unreconciled outlier or could move the model forward (perhaps significantly) with a couple of new factors, should they prove statistically meaningful.
Anyway, time for a bevvy.
Enjoy the Scottish GN on Saturday folks.1 -
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I Am Maximus followed by Soldier In Milan at a welcoming home party.
A foretaste of Aintree next April 10?
Quite possibly.1 -
Soldier wants to fight already!1
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Hi Peanuts
Is there anything in Road To Home's pedigree that suggests he might get 4 miles? He ran very well at Cheltenham in a close finish with Brewster and although the handicapper has not been too kind I keep looking at him. Probably Mullins only runner at the meeting tomorrow too.
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PeanutsMolloy said:I Am Maximus followed by Soldier In Milan at a welcoming home party.
A foretaste of Aintree next April 10?
Quite possibly.
... and Max is as cool as a cucumber. What a horse 2 -
Would be a brave man that said that a Mullins runner wouldn't get the trip.Starinnaddick said:Hi Peanuts
Is there anything in Road To Home's pedigree that suggests he might get 4 miles? He ran very well at Cheltenham in a close finish with Brewster and although the handicapper has not been too kind I keep looking at him. Probably Mullins only runner at the meeting tomorrow too.
There's nowt in his maternal family that screams 4 miler, nor in his first couple of damsires BUT:
- sire Gamut produced Corbetts Cross - an easy winner of the 30f NH Chase 2 years ago (RPR166 is one of the best ratings in recent times) - and GN 6th Road To Riches
- 3rd damsire Deep Run is always a + in a stayer's pedigree
- linebreeding to a son and daughter of Wild Risk is a + and he's got other bits and bobs of positive linebreeding
It's not strong enough for me but, if I fancied him on his CV, I wouldn't doubt from his pedigree that he'll stay the trip.
I am a little wary of the Cheltenham good-ground form IF it comes up properly Soft tomorrow. His best RPRs are on GS and Y.
However, it may be Soft/GS tomorrow so hardly a mudbath.
If he's speaking to you, I'd go for it.
Good luck.0 -
Thank you Peanuts.
Your knowledge of thoroughbred breeding continues to astound me.
Small interest for me.1 -
The not-so-hot money on Chasingouttheblues has caused the horse to shrink to a best priced 15/2. Not only has this idiot backed it at 14/1 but he also has two singles and an EW double with Secret Squirel at 20/1 in the Scottish Champion Hurdle (1/4 odds 1-4 both races). It's not the hope but the dream that kills you!!!PeanutsMolloy said:Hoots Mon.
Looking very much like it will be a Soft-ground Scottish GN, I'm wary of the Good-ground form of Cheltenham and will reluctantly pass on Ask Brewster. Allows me room for one with a smidge of e/w value
Adding to my first selection a couple proven at 4m+ on the ground and, notwithstanding the lousy prices, the now-doubly jinxed fella (I can't have @Addick Addict pick one at last and not join the party):
MONTREGARD 10/1
ISAAC DES OBEAUX 10/1
CHASINGOUTTHEBLUES 12/1
GIT MAKER 20/1 (6 places Skybet), staying on 3rd in this on Soft 2 years ago (now 4lb lower mark, off which 3rd LTO in Mid Nat)
Horrible prices but hopefully we'll net the winner and Git Maker will make the frame.
Beannachd leat ya bloody sassanachs2 -
Here’s to Chasinouttheblues and Secret Squirrel.
Good luck @Addick Addict1 -
Cheers @StarinnaddickStarinnaddick said:Thank you Peanuts.
Your knowledge of thoroughbred breeding continues to astound me.
Small interest for me.
I’m probably talking a load of baloney.
Best of luck.1 -
Cheers PMPeanutsMolloy said:Here’s to Chasinouttheblues and Secret Squirrel.
Good luck @Addick Addict1 -
Sponsored links:
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Not a surprise but it does seem that Aintree is uppermost in thoughts for Soldier In Milan.
161 mark is what’s currently envisaged by the BHA handicapper.
If Max were to run off 173, that would put SIM on 11-00.
Presumably he’ll have a hurdles campaign with post-weights chase to protect the mark but
will be interesting to see how the form of the Irish GN pans out, particularly how Kiss Will runs next time.1 -
PeanutsMolloy said:
Cheers @StarinnaddickStarinnaddick said:Thank you Peanuts.
Your knowledge of thoroughbred breeding continues to astound me.
Small interest for me.
I’m probably talking a load of baloney.
Best of luck.
We all know you're not talking baloney, but it does remind me of the old saying amongst thoroughbred breeders. When asked what's the secret, the reply is "Breed the best with the best and hope for the best".1 -
Wrong thread!0
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Indeed. For every Denman there’s a Silverburn.bobmunro said:PeanutsMolloy said:
Cheers @StarinnaddickStarinnaddick said:Thank you Peanuts.
Your knowledge of thoroughbred breeding continues to astound me.
Small interest for me.
I’m probably talking a load of baloney.
Best of luck.
We all know you're not talking baloney, but it does remind me of the old saying amongst thoroughbred breeders. When asked what's the secret, the reply is "Breed the best with the best and hope for the best".0 -
Bad news @Starinnaddick - seems like he could be a non-runner. Obviously partied too hard with Max yesterday.0 -
No problem. I was waiting to see what the going is tomorrow as rain was coming down at Ayr this afternoon.PeanutsMolloy said:
Bad news @Starinnaddick - seems like he could be a non-runner. Obviously partied too hard with Max yesterday.
I'm just sorry I wasted your time.0 -
No worries, always interesting to look over a runner and he’ll likely pop up in another long distance chase.Starinnaddick said:
No problem. I was waiting to see what the going is tomorrow as rain was coming down at Ayr this afternoon.PeanutsMolloy said:
Bad news @Starinnaddick - seems like he could be a non-runner. Obviously partied too hard with Max yesterday.
I'm just sorry I wasted your time.0 -
Sadly seems that Noble Yeats has passed away as a result of colic.
Only 11.
Great shame.0 -
Going is now Soft (Heavy places) at Ayr.
Rain forecast through to lunchtime tomorrow. Maybe it will be a mud bath after all.
Expect money for Git Maker and Isaac Des Obeaux.2 -
Both are now a best priced 11/2 and no R4s for any N/Rs. All they have to do is win now!Addick Addict said:
The not-so-hot money on Chasingouttheblues has caused the horse to shrink to a best priced 15/2. Not only has this idiot backed it at 14/1 but he also has two singles and an EW double with Secret Squirel at 20/1 in the Scottish Champion Hurdle (1/4 odds 1-4 both races). It's not the hope but the dream that kills you!!!PeanutsMolloy said:Hoots Mon.
Looking very much like it will be a Soft-ground Scottish GN, I'm wary of the Good-ground form of Cheltenham and will reluctantly pass on Ask Brewster. Allows me room for one with a smidge of e/w value
Adding to my first selection a couple proven at 4m+ on the ground and, notwithstanding the lousy prices, the now-doubly jinxed fella (I can't have @Addick Addict pick one at last and not join the party):
MONTREGARD 10/1
ISAAC DES OBEAUX 10/1
CHASINGOUTTHEBLUES 12/1
GIT MAKER 20/1 (6 places Skybet), staying on 3rd in this on Soft 2 years ago (now 4lb lower mark, off which 3rd LTO in Mid Nat)
Horrible prices but hopefully we'll net the winner and Git Maker will make the frame.
Beannachd leat ya bloody sassanachs1
