Grand National 2026
Comments
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Beat wishes to your wife @PeanutsMolloy, hoping she makes a swift recovery and that she doesn't break the wires by smiling too widely if your model smashes it out the park this year.1
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Cheers @Athletico Charlton @CHG @MrOneLung @StarryNightAthletico Charlton said:Beat wishes to your wife @PeanutsMolloy, hoping she makes a swift recovery and that she doesn't break the wires by smiling too widely if your model smashes it out the park this year.
Much appreciated.
A Grand Slam would certainly bust her wires and probably bust my ticker
Otherwise, not sure if champagne can be administered via feeding tubes but would love to give it a try!
Champ Kiely (or albeit extremely improbable Top Of The Bill) as the winner would be seriously Golden.
I shall keep modelling and keep dreaming whatever.
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No change to the weather forecast - showery rain but not of any consequence.
All courses still showing uniformly GS.
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Nick Rockett a Non-Runner.2
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Already given a thumb nail sketch of why Gorgeous Tom is on my better slip and, as there are usually some late comers, I'll run through the others.
I AM MAXIMUS (nap) – 10yo 11-12
Stats against:
· no GN winner has carried topweight since Red Rum in 1974 or returned to reclaim their Crown since Rummy also did so in 1977.
· a 10 yo, 10/10 GN winners were 7~9 year olds
Why will he defy these stats and go 1 better than last year?
· Last year did not go to plan all season: Poor early form, injury-enforced lack of final prep, Townend badly injured on the Friday, got too far back and did too much to be with leaders at last
· Arrives this time with much better prospects - Townend has opted to ride him again (could have opted for Grangeclare West); a much better campaign (near-missing in Grade 1) and fully prepped. Will don cheekpieces to help keep him closer to the action.
But the principal reason Max can defy the stats is:
· An outstanding GN-positive pedigree, similar in key components and equal in my model’s rating to Tiger Roll’s
· Sire Authorized (3 sons as GN runners, 2 have won), son of Montjeu (also the sire of GN winning stallion Walk In The Park).
· Heavily inbred to Sadlers Wells and strongly linebred to Wild Risk - a Professional Chef De Race, WR is a key stamina influence and offers unique genetic synergies with Sadlers Wells’ ancestors – those are greatly amplified by linebreeding.
· Unlike Tiger but like 3 other GN winners (Rule The World, One For Arthur and Minella Times), Max has the mtDNA haplotype N2a. 56 GN runners since 2013 with the N2a mtDNA (12.2% of fields) have produced 33.3% of the winners (an outperformance of x2.74 their representation)
The more rain the better for Max’s chances but, with a far better season behind him than last, barring misfortune, even on Good to Soft he’s my model’s nap.
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Quel surprise.CafcSteve said:Nick Rockett a Non-Runner.
Poor old Tom Bellamy.1 -
HIGH CLASS HERO 9yo 10-11CV
· 2nd season chaser – 10/11 GN winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (the exception Tiger Roll in 2019) from just 28% of runners and they punch above their weight regardless of age – those that were 9 year olds produced 2 GN winners Rule The World and Corach Rambler at x2.7 representation
· Shares an interesting CV stat with 2022 winner Noble Yeats – both notched an RPR125+ in a Bumper (flat race for jumpers) not at the customary 2 miles but at 2.5 miles. An indication that connections always viewed stamina as a strong suit. The same was true of the resounding winner of Monday’s Irish GN Soldier In Milan (RPR124 over 19f).
· Never raced at shorter than 20f and recorded his best chase RPR over the furthest trip attempted (RPR155) when a keeping-on 4.5L in last April’s Bet365 Gold Cup. Stablemate Nick Rockett was also close 3rd in the Bet365 a year before his GN triumph. HCH’s finishing speed was quicker than both Spanish Harlem (4th and HCH is 12lbs better off in the GN) and Grangeclare West (5th).
· Near-misser in Grade 1 novice company over hurdles (beaten 0.5L over 3m at Punchestown, with Stellar Story and Lecky Watson behind)
· This Season - decent enough seasonal bow but PU and PU in last 2 runs is why he’s 50/1. They were in the Thyestes and Leinster National, but both on very testing ground – all 3 of his career PUs Under Rules have come on attritional Heavy – and he is very much a “top of the ground” horse.
PEDIGREE - again key:
· Both sire Sulamani and damsire Turgeon are strong GN positives. Both were Group 1 winners at 12f+ and have GN success from limited representation – Sulamani siring winner Rule The World (only 1 other runner) and Turgeon dam-siring near-misser Vanillier (only 1 other runner). Sulamani has a 27% frame-making strike rate as sire from 11 runners at 31f+ and Turgeon has is 24% as damsire of 25 runners at 31f+.
· Like Rule The World, has both Wild Risk (influence for stamina at speed) and Bold Ruler (toughness) on his damside – 5 of the last 12 winners (42%) but just 12% of runners had the benefit of that combination.
· HCH’s mtDNA L1a is interesting. It’s had few GN representatives (just 4 of the 353 horses to compete since 2013) but they include Noble Yeats (2022 winner and 4th a year later) and all 3 others met with misfortune. Interestingly, like the GN solidly-outperforming mtDNA N2a, L1a also shows outperformance (x1.43) in Ascot Gold Cups since 1988. Reason to think, like N2a, it bestows an endurance edge.
Conclusion:
Obviously not one of the leading picks for the Mullins' jockies, so he’s unlikely to pick up steam in the market, but James Bowen is a fine stand-in – won the Welsh National on Raz De Maree, the Midlands National on Potters Corner and gave Holloway Queen a peach of a ride on quick ground in the 30f NH Chase at the Festival. BTW Minella Cocooner, who last year had a similar profile to HCH, was discarded by the Mullins' jocks but was a very unlucky 7th under stand-in Jonathan Burke - saddle slipped at the start!
With a very winnable-with 10.11 to carry, the quickish GS that is likely on Saturday will be right up HCH's street and my model rates him, barring misfortune, a major player on the ground.
The scenario is very reminiscent of another good-ground lover, Aurora’s Encore, who’d had an poor season on testing ground before getting his ideal ground in the GN and cruising to victory in 2013 at 80/1.
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Worse thing about this is Pied Piper gets in - This horse should not be allowed in a national look at its record. I would advise all jockeys not to follow this one.PeanutsMolloy said:
Quel surprise.CafcSteve said:Nick Rockett a Non-Runner.
Poor old Tom Bellamy.1 -
CHAMP KIELY 10yo 11-01
Apologies - if these are thumb-nail sketches, it’s one humungous thumb! But the Champ deserves it and should never have been 80/1.
CV
· 2nd season chaser from the Mullins yard (10 of last 11 GN winners from 26% of runners) with only 9 chases to his name and unexposed beyond 25f.
· Bar twice (when beaten by a nod on the line and when asked to race just 4 days after Slipping Up when clipping heels early on in December's Savills Chase) he has never been beaten Under Rules outside Grade 1 company.
· x2 Grade 1 wins, the form of both good: a 20f novice hurdle (comfortably beating Inothewayurthinkin and Grangeclare West) and a 25f novice chase a year ago, storming-clear on Gd/Y (Stellar Story and Gorgeous Tom well adrift) in a time 7 seconds FAST of standard
· Handles any ground and will shoulder a very winnable-with 11.01
· "He caught my eye at the DRF (when seventh in the Irish Gold Cup) [last outing, 68 days prior]. I thought he was the only one to travel deep into the race behind all the big boys and I'd be quite sweet on his weight. I think he'll jump and travel, he stays well and I'm very sweet on him." (Patrick Mullins 17 Feb) and while Patrick has opted to ride Grangeclare West, Danny Mullins (GN winner on Rule The World) surprised many by picking the Champ ahead of other Mullins’ fancies.
PEDIGREE – powerful GN-successful family:
· Closely related to Corach Rambler (won, UR), Any Second Now (3rd hampered, 2nd, PU badly hamp) and Gilgamboa (4th) - all from the family of Lastofthebrownies of yesteryear (3 GN runs: F 3 out (every chance), 4th, 5th). The only other member of that family (23a) to run in a GN since 2013 was a more distant relative Tranquil Sea (a never-nearer 25L 7th after being hampered early in 2015).
· Has both Wild Risk (stamina) and Bold Ruler (toughness) on his damside - a GN-outperforming combination (42% of GN winners from 14% of runners).
· The first 3 damsires that are unique to CK each have GN positives (in order): DS1 Moscow Society was damsire of Seabass (close 3rd 2011); Buckskin was Amberleigh House's sire and prominent on the damside of 3 GN placers; and Menelek was sire of 2 GN winners (Rag Trade and Hallo Dandy).
· Shares his 4th damsire with his 3 relatives – the rare but powerfully-bred Immortality, whose maternal GrandFather, Blue Larkspur is one of the famous “Big Heart” stallions (thought to bestow superior endurance) and his maternal Grandmother, the “Blue Hen” La Troienne, was a highly influential broodmare.
· His sole negative on Pedigree stats is that his sire, Ocovango, is not a descendant of Northern Dancer (12/12 GN winners) but the German stallion Monsun.
· HOWEVER:
- A son of Monsun, Network, sired both Saint Are and Delta Work, each of which finished 2nd and 3rd in GNs – like the Champ, both Saint Are and Delta Work had that Wild Risk and Bold Ruler combination on their damsides; and
- While Ocovango is yet to have a GN runner, his progeny have a promising early record at 4m+: 2 of 4 sons to attempt the trip winning
Conclusion:
Danny Mullins opting to ride him has prompted CK’s odds to be slashed from 80 to 33/1. While some, based on his CV, wonder if he’ll get the GN trip, my model has no doubt whatsoever and that, barring misfortune, he has the potential to be a serious player at the business end.
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So for latecomers, the 4 whose ratings I've summarised aboveI Am Maximusare the 4 that my model would suggest backing for the best chance of finding the winner, though, given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune that can occur in a GN, I always prefer each way bets.
High Class Hero
Champ Kiely
Gorgeous Tom
For those interested in the next best each way candidates, I'll give summaries of these 3 (Final Order, Spanish Harlem, Top of The Bill) later.3 -
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They were both heavy falls as well. I'd be worried for the horse if he went down like that even over the modified fences.oldbloke said:
Worse thing about this is Pied Piper gets in - This horse should not be allowed in a national look at its record. I would advise all jockeys not to follow this one.PeanutsMolloy said:
Quel surprise.CafcSteve said:Nick Rockett a Non-Runner.
Poor old Tom Bellamy.
Imperial Saint is likely to be in as well if Spillanes doesn't exit early this pm and is withdrawn for Saturday before 1pm tomorrow - the deadline for Reserves getting a run.
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Pied Piper non runner1
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Gordon Elliott appeared to favour Gerri Colombe of his runners. We'll see.0
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So Amirite will run if Spillanes is withdrawn by 1pm tomorrow.
Not the worst pedigree in the field.
Foxhunters clocked virtually identical time to last year and the winner won it cosily.
So looks like ground is similar to 12 months ago.
That rain an hour or so ago has had minimal effect.0 -
Sorry to hear about your wife PM. Hope her recovery is sooner rather than later.2
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Top Of The Bill attracting a little money.
100-125 overnight.
Now 80/1 top price and most bookies now 50-60/11 -
So it looks like Spillanes Tower won't run. He was pulled up with no chance of winning in the 2.55. The vet said he had a nose bleed.1
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That must be so frustrating for Jimmy Mangan - you wrap him in cotton wool and get a bleed. No wonder he ran so poorly.RobinKeepsBobbin said:So it looks like Spillanes Tower won't run. He was pulled up with no chance of winning in the 2.55. The vet said he had a nose bleed.
Looks like Panic Attack is vying for favouritism already.
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Naturally I like to play a Top X Finish or 2 with the long shots the model fancies to shoot for a winning lottery ticket.
I've gone with a Top 7 Finish for TOP OF THE BILL at 8/1
and a Top 8 Finish for MARBLE SANDS at 8/1
Can't say they're overly generous odds but they'll just about fly for my purposes.
Short of Top Of The Bill winning, which would put me on a Space X mission to Mars, the lottery result for me would be:
1 CHAMP KIELY
2~5 any perm of MAX, TOM, FINAL ORDERS, SPANISH HARLEM
6 HIGH CLASS HERO
7 TOP OF THE BILL
8 MARBLE SANDS
Huston, we have lift off.
Will provide summaries of the now 4 PLACE Candidates tomorrow.0 -
Cheers @Addick AddictAddick Addict said:Sorry to hear about your wife PM. Hope her recovery is sooner rather than later.
Much appreciated.
She's got the jaw op tomorrow and an op on her fractured thumb on Monday, down at the Queen Vic in East Grinstead, which is top notch for both facial and hand surgery happily. Great to happen so quickly as well.
Incredible how much damage you can do tripping over on a pavement.
Who are you fancies for Saturday?0 -
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After spending several hours studying form, looking at stats and listening to every expert on youtube i have decided to put my £10 each way on Johnnywho1
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Belated get well soon wishes to Mrs P M .. thanks for all the info Peanuts, I don't know how you do it
Auntie's 'experts' opinions on the runners
Grand National 2026 runners: Pinstickers' guide to Aintree race horses - BBC Sport1 -
That's small consolation at least so far as the speed with which your wife is receiving her treatment.PeanutsMolloy said:
Cheers @Addick AddictAddick Addict said:Sorry to hear about your wife PM. Hope her recovery is sooner rather than later.
Much appreciated.
She's got the jaw op tomorrow and an op on her fractured thumb on Monday, down at the Queen Vic in East Grinstead, which is top notch for both facial and hand surgery happily. Great to happen so quickly as well.
Incredible how much damage you can do tripping over on a pavement.
Who are you fancies for Saturday?
I have backed just the one to date - Stellar Story, E/W at 40/1. Not to put too much pressure on you, but my late picks will be influenced by your selections and the prevalent going. Here's hoping you have a "stonker" of a race this year!1 -
Cheers @LincsaddickLincsaddick said:Belated get well soon wishes to Mrs P M .. thanks for all the info Peanuts, I don't know how you do it
Auntie's 'experts' opinions on the runners
Grand National 2026 runners: Pinstickers' guide to Aintree race horses - BBC Sport
you’re very kind. Just my version of train-spotting.
What do you fancy for Saturday?1 -
Good luck with Stellar @“Addick Addict"Addick Addict said:
That's small consolation at least so far as the speed with which your wife is receiving her treatment.PeanutsMolloy said:
Cheers @Addick AddictAddick Addict said:Sorry to hear about your wife PM. Hope her recovery is sooner rather than later.
Much appreciated.
She's got the jaw op tomorrow and an op on her fractured thumb on Monday, down at the Queen Vic in East Grinstead, which is top notch for both facial and hand surgery happily. Great to happen so quickly as well.
Incredible how much damage you can do tripping over on a pavement.
Who are you fancies for Saturday?
I have backed just the one to date - Stellar Story, E/W at 40/1. Not to put too much pressure on you, but my late picks will be influenced by your selections and the prevalent going. Here's hoping you have a "stonker" of a race this year!
That Bobbyjo run gives him a big chance.
Hope my fellas don’t let the team down, whichever you plump for.
All the best.1 -
I rarely bet nowadays Peanuts .. I'll put a bit on a couple of your bigger prices .. My main fancy is Perceval Legallois .. why ? .. errr .. One of Mullins' many AND Harry Cobden has yet to win the G N .. could be a great start to his new career as JPM's main man (or not lol)PeanutsMolloy said:
Cheers @LincsaddickLincsaddick said:Belated get well soon wishes to Mrs P M .. thanks for all the info Peanuts, I don't know how you do it
Auntie's 'experts' opinions on the runners
Grand National 2026 runners: Pinstickers' guide to Aintree race horses - BBC Sport
you’re very kind. Just my version of train-spotting.
What do you fancy for Saturday?
Off topic, Paul Nicholls was 'interviewed' by Matt Chapman this p.m. .. he seemed very downbeat .. a lot of his long term owners have now gone elsewhere AND he's lost Cobden .. I suspect his 'golden years' are now behind him .. pity as Irish trainers are getting stronger and stronger, well three at least, W Mullins, Elliot and O'Brien junior
I hope you win enough this time to buy that round the world cruise on your own megayacht .. cheers Peanuts1 -
Hi Peanuts
Best wishes to your wife and hope she makes a full recovery. I assume the Queen Vic is where the Mcindoe burns unit is which I visited many years ago.
Hopefully you will have something to celebrate on Saturday but irrespective of the result this is by far the best thread on this forum imo.
The level of insight and stats is fascinating.
Good luck.2 -
Yes it is, you’re right. I had treatment at Mcindoe as well a few years ago. Top people there.Starinnaddick said:Hi Peanuts
Best wishes to your wife and hope she makes a full recovery. I assume the Queen Vic is where the Mcindoe burns unit is which I visited many years ago.
Hopefully you will have something to celebrate on Saturday but irrespective of the result this is by far the best thread on this forum imo.
The level of insight and stats is fascinating.
Good luck.
Many thanks for your kind wishes and comments @Starinnaddick
All the best to you too.0 -
Best of luck @RobinKeepsBobbinRobinKeepsBobbin said:After spending several hours studying form, looking at stats and listening to every expert on youtube i have decided to put my £10 each way on Johnnywho
got a big chance.
Many thanks for your comments and contributions to the thread. Always very interesting.
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Best wishes to Mrs Malloy.1
