Grand National 2026
Comments
-
0
-
Hope Mrs Malloy makes a speedy recovery1
-
Hope the missus is better soon @PeanutsMolloy1
-
Plaaayer said:Hope the missus is better soon @PeanutsMolloy
Cheers @Plaaayer
You're very kind.
Very good to hear from you. Hope all's good with you.
Fancies for tomorrow?
0 -
Cheers @smiffyboysmiffyboy said:Hope Mrs Malloy makes a speedy recovery
Very much appreciated and hope all's well with you.
Which one(s) are you on tomorrow?
0 -
Grand National stats: Can trends find 2026 winner of Aintree race? - BBC Sport
not even a mention of mitochondrial DNA7 -
MrOneLung said:Grand National stats: Can trends find 2026 winner of Aintree race? - BBC Sport
not even a mention of mitochondrial DNA
Boring isn't it?
Nor wind operations.THE 3 NEXT BEST EACH WAY CANDIDATES (and a good Extra Places shot):
There’s little to choose between the first 3 on Profile.
The one with best CV and the best-handicapped is FINAL ORDERS
The one with the best GN-positive Pedigree and arguably the most likely to surprise as winner is SPANISH HARLEM
The one that could give a backer the biggest buzz from outrunning his price is TOP OF THE BILL
FINAL ORDERS 10yo 10-05 – now 25/1 (backed e/w at 80/1)
CV
· Will likely have his ground. Loves and must have quick ground, which he got when beating the favourite and strongly making all in the 30f Festival XC and covering the last 6, 4 & 2 furlongs quicker than Fav De Champdou; notching a career-best chase RPR157 and, in the handicapper’s view, putting him 10lbs well-in for the GN, well offsets the fact that regular pilot Conor Stone-Walsh can’t use his 3lb claim
· Has experience over the GN fences, travelling well and when very much in contention in the 2023 Topham when falling at 13th. Pineau De Re fell at his 8th fence in his only prior run over the GN fences before his 2014 win.
PEDIGREE
· Shares his L1a mtDNA with High Class Hero and GN winner Noble Yeats (outperformance in GN and Ascot Gold Cup) and it’s interesting that they all excelled over a trip on a sound surface
· First GN runner for sire Camelot (<1L from claiming a Triple Crown), descendant of Northern Dancer and son of Montjeu (sire of both Authorized and Walk In The Park who between them sired 4 of the last 7 GN winners)
· From the family of Irish GN winner Commanche Court and 20f Group 1 winners Trawlerman (Ascot GC) and Invermark (PdCadran), his 3rd Dam was a Gns1k winner and he ticks several linebreeding components typical of a GN frame-maker
CONCLUSION
Depending on one's view of XC form, the best-handicapped runner tomorrow but, with 28 chases under his belt, his profile is more than of a frame-maker than winner of a modern GN.
Nonetheless, he'll have ideal conditions for a huge run.
TOP OF THE BILL 10yo 10-05 – now 66/1 (backed e/w at 100~125/1)
CV
· 12 chases to his name, another that loves and must have a sound surface. He’s never been out of the frame in 5 chases on Gd or GS at 24~28.5f (winning 3 and is 2 wins from 2 in the Spring compared to 30% at other times)
· Key piece of form is his close 2nd as topweight in February’s Haydock GN Trial and while that’s only produced 1 win from 11 subsequent runs, 4 more have placed (a 5th would have but for a very late PU in the Midlands National) – quietly solid form. Same conditional pilot tomorrow, Toby McCain-Mitchell and 10-05 is light enough that being unable to claim his 5lbs should matter little
· He set a career-best RPR153 in that race, his last outing – a 6lb premium to his GN OR147
· From the stable of Nigel Twiston Davies (2 GN winners from yesteryear and GN4th Blaklion in 2017 – close 2nd in his last outing, the Haydock GNT. If he were from Gordon Elliott’s yard he’d be half his price
PEDIGREE
· Only previous GN runner for his sire (Ascot Gold Cup winner and another son of Montjeu, Fame & Glory) was XC winner Foxy Jacks who, needing a sound surface, PUd on Soft
· Strong array of Group 1 winning and stayer-producing Damsires 1~4 – each producing as damsire a Group 1 winner over 16~20f – his DS2 Bering damsired x3 Ascot Gold Cup winner Stradivarius and 4m winner Butlers Cabin.
· Linebred to Wild Risk, including TOTB’s 5th Damsire, Le Fabuleux (prominent on Tiger Roll and I Am Maximus’s damsides)
· Also like Max, has the GN-outperforming N2a mtDNA
CONCLUSION
TOTB can be a tricky ride (so good that regular partner is on board) and is best going left-handed as can hang/jump left. He could hate the occasion and down tools or could absolutely love it – hopefully the decent ground and Spring in the air will do the trick.
SPANISH HARLEM 8yo 11-03 - now 33/1 (backed e/w at 66/1)
CV
· A EUR360k purchase as a 4 year old, now in his 3rd season over fences for whom an extreme trip looks ideal
· Ridden conservatively and a never-nearer 8L 6th in the 2024 32f Scottish GN when the choice of ride for Paul Townend (CO half-way the following year when going nicely - again ridden conservatively)
· Was still a maiden when, next outing, he was a one-paced 7L 4th behind Resplendent Grey in the 28.5f Bet365, having at last been given a prominent ride which his stamina but probable lack of gears demands.
· Finally got off the mark in June and followed up taking September’s Kerry National, both wins on decent ground and again making the pace, before a return of his sketchy jumping (notably when ridden less prominently) in the Hennessy.
· Returning to front-running, had an agonising last fence UR (claimer jockey at fault) when looking the certain winner of the 25f Thyestes on desperate ground (unfortunately catching the eye of the BHA handicapper who upped him 9lbs for the GN)
PEDIGREE
· By Spanish Moon, a Group 1 winner at 12f, who’s yet to have a GN runner but has sired a Scottish GN near-misser (Klarc Kent, also placing 4th) and whose pedigree bears rare and GN positive similarities with 4 sires of 6 modern GN winners (all descendants of Northern Dancer with Wild Risk in their damsire’s sire) and the sire of runaway winner of Monday’s Irish GN Soldier In Milan. I Am Maximus, The Real Whacker and Quai De Bourbon are his only rivals sired by such a sire.
· From the family of Hedgehunter, but it's hus linebreeding (multiple presence via more than 1 offspring of key stallions) that’s particularly sexy:
· To Wild Risk in a significant form (2 sons and 1 daughter split between sire-and damside). 12 horses have run in GNs since 2013 with comparable linebreeding to WR - including Tiger Roll, I Am Maximus, Iroko (4th), Walk In The Mill (4th), Meetingofthewaters (6th)
· To Wild Risk’s second cousin Right Royal, who shares much of the specific bloodlines that make WR’s so synergistic with the ubiquitous Nearco in thoroughbred pedigrees. Only 2 horses have run in a GN since 2013 that were linebred to Right Royal; they include Balko Des Flos (100/1 2nd to Minella Times in 2021)
· To the Timeform 144-rated Tudor Minstrel. 23 horses linebred to him have run in a GN since 2013; 7 of them winning (Auroras Encore, Pineau De Re, One For Arthur, Tiger Roll (x2), Noble Yeats, Corach Rambler and I Am Maximus), another 3 placing (Magic Of Light, Ain’t That A Shame and Senior Chief).
CONCLUSION
There’s no doubt that the handicapper has been harsh, but 11-03 is not an unworkable and he has the ground going for him. While he can act on Heavy, his wins and his promising runs in Scottish GN and Bet365 have all come on a decent surface.
It was no surprise to me when Willie Mullins commented after he broke his maiden: “We'd love to produce him for the Randox Grand National at Aintree…… I think he likes nicer ground, that could be the key to him as well as plenty of jumping and longer trips”.
Add in “positive tactics” and I’d fully concur. Given the now-customary schooling over spruce at home, in my view today’s fences at Aintree and the GN trip should prove right up his street. Brian Hayes on board (who was giving him that good ride, in touch, when CO at Ayr last year) is a plus.
MARBLE SANDS 10yo 10-05 – 80/1 (backed Top 8 Finish at 8/1, now 13/2)
CV
In his 3rd season chasing (12 chases to date) there are 3 important pieces of form or collateral form for him:
· His win in November’s Class 1 27.5f Chase at Cheltenham on Soft ground under tomorrow's pilot Keilan Woods – a race in which Don’t Push It (GN winner 2010) near-missed earlier that season and which Alvarado won prior to his 2014 GN 4th. The form looks decent - 18 runs, 4 wins (3 horses), 2 places
· 26L 12th in last year’s quick-ground Topham (having been with the leaders until the pace quickened 3 out) doesn’t sound much BUT, he travelled and jumped the fences well AND was the fastest-finishing outside the front 3. In other words, he liked the fences, he liked the ground but the 21f trip was too short.
· Despite being 5lb higher for his Cheltenham win, via The Changing Man (8L 3rd in the Ladbrokes GC) 80/1 Marble Sands isn't significantly disadvantaged at the GN weights vs 12/1 Panic Attack but he has winning form over further.
PEDIGREE
· Shares his sire Martaline with GN near-misser Vanillier and GN 6th Ucello Conti
· Shares his Damsire Poliglote with I Am Maximus
· Linebred to Wild Risk, with Le Fabuleux twice-present
· Quality in his family (4 of his nearest 7 Dams were Group 1 winners on the flat or over hurdles), with whom he shares the GN-outperforming N2a mtDNA
CONCLUSION
Don’t be deceived by his 80/1 odds, which largely reflect that he hails from a small Gloucestershire yard. He has a deceptively decent Profile for a GN that gives him an outside chance making the frame-making but a good chance of a big run and Top 8~10 Finish.
Like TOTB, if he were trained by Gordon Elliott he’d be half the price.
3 -
Final bets for me.
Not drawn to the Group Finish offers, so Bet Builders to back the model's top selections.
First 3 home - any perm of Max, the Champ, Tom and the Hero.
Nice to have alternative routes to a biggie.
Fingers crossed.
So my mega-payout required result is now:
1. Champ
2 & 3 Max & Tom in either order
4 & 5 Spanish H & Final Orders in either order
6 High Class Hero
7 Top Of The Bill
8 Marble Sands
This is one small step for mankind and one fucking humungous one for me!3 -
I’m good thanks mate. I haven’t even had chance to have a look unfortunately, 4 kids will do that to you 😊 Will be following yours for a bit of interest!PeanutsMolloy said:Plaaayer said:Hope the missus is better soon @PeanutsMolloy
Cheers @Plaaayer
You're very kind.
Very good to hear from you. Hope all's good with you.
Fancies for tomorrow?1 -
Glad to hear it.Plaaayer said:
I’m good thanks mate. I haven’t even had chance to have a look unfortunately, 4 kids will do that to you 😊 Will be following yours for a bit of interest!PeanutsMolloy said:Plaaayer said:Hope the missus is better soon @PeanutsMolloy
Cheers @Plaaayer
You're very kind.
Very good to hear from you. Hope all's good with you.
Fancies for tomorrow?
Fingers crossed my model's picked the winner but don't put their inheritance on it
1 -
Sponsored links:
-
Is it true that no horse has won the National wearing cheekpieces which I Am Maximus is wearing? I wonder if any winner wore them before they had to be declared.They used to be called French blinkers.
Panic Attack is shortening in price but I discounted her when I realised she is a mare. She may well win but no mare has won since Nickel Coin in 1951.0 -
That's not correct about pieces - here are the headgear stats for the last 9 GNs:Starinnaddick said:Is it true that no horse has won the National wearing cheekpieces which I Am Maximus is wearing? I wonder if any winner wore them before they had to be declared.They used to be called French blinkers.
Panic Attack is shortening in price but I discounted her when I realised she is a mare. She may well win but no mare has won since Nickel Coin in 1951.
CHEEKPIECES – 95 RUNNERS 2 WINNERS 6 PLACED
BLINKERS – 45 RUNNERS 1 WINNER 4 PLACED
VISOR – 5 RUNNERS 0 WINNER 0 PLACED
HOOD – 10 RUNNERS 0 WINNER 0 PLACED
NO HEADGEAR – 187 RUNNERS 6 WINNERS 17 PLACED
I'm not backing Panic Attack but not because she's a mare.
The number of mares running makes for such a small sample that you can't say it will never happen again.
It's not a physique thing because small horses have won the GN.
It's not a toughness thing because a mare can make for the toughest of racehorses.
They can get overrated perhaps because they can and do tend to race in a lot of Mares only races.
But that was true of Magic Of Light and she very nearly won it in 2019.0 -
Hey Peanuts, late catching up on this thread this year, but first things first and more importantly, best wishes to the Mrs mate.
Now just gotta work through the thread for my picks...0 -
Just shows that you can be led astray by AI.PeanutsMolloy said:
That's not correct about pieces - here are the headgear stats for the last 9 GNs:Starinnaddick said:Is it true that no horse has won the National wearing cheekpieces which I Am Maximus is wearing? I wonder if any winner wore them before they had to be declared.They used to be called French blinkers.
Panic Attack is shortening in price but I discounted her when I realised she is a mare. She may well win but no mare has won since Nickel Coin in 1951.
CHEEKPIECES – 95 RUNNERS 2 WINNERS 6 PLACED
BLINKERS – 45 RUNNERS 1 WINNER 4 PLACED
VISOR – 5 RUNNERS 0 WINNER 0 PLACED
HOOD – 10 RUNNERS 0 WINNER 0 PLACED
NO HEADGEAR – 187 RUNNERS 6 WINNERS 17 PLACED
I'm not backing Panic Attack but not because she's a mare.
The number of mares running makes for such a small sample that you can't say it will never happen again.
It's not a physique thing because small horses have won the GN.
It's not a toughness thing because a mare can make for the toughest of racehorses.
They can get overrated perhaps because they can and do tend to race in a lot of Mares only races.
But that was true of Magic Of Light and she very nearly won it in 2019.
Thank you Peanuts for clearing that up.1 -
That was a rough watch earlier when Gold Dancer hit the final fence got back up to win.
RIP Gold Dancer.2 -
Or is AI right and Peanuts is wrong?Starinnaddick said:
Just shows that you can be led astray by AI.PeanutsMolloy said:
That's not correct about pieces - here are the headgear stats for the last 9 GNs:Starinnaddick said:Is it true that no horse has won the National wearing cheekpieces which I Am Maximus is wearing? I wonder if any winner wore them before they had to be declared.They used to be called French blinkers.
Panic Attack is shortening in price but I discounted her when I realised she is a mare. She may well win but no mare has won since Nickel Coin in 1951.
CHEEKPIECES – 95 RUNNERS 2 WINNERS 6 PLACED
BLINKERS – 45 RUNNERS 1 WINNER 4 PLACED
VISOR – 5 RUNNERS 0 WINNER 0 PLACED
HOOD – 10 RUNNERS 0 WINNER 0 PLACED
NO HEADGEAR – 187 RUNNERS 6 WINNERS 17 PLACED
I'm not backing Panic Attack but not because she's a mare.
The number of mares running makes for such a small sample that you can't say it will never happen again.
It's not a physique thing because small horses have won the GN.
It's not a toughness thing because a mare can make for the toughest of racehorses.
They can get overrated perhaps because they can and do tend to race in a lot of Mares only races.
But that was true of Magic Of Light and she very nearly won it in 2019.
Thank you Peanuts for clearing that up.
Nah, scrap that question!3 -
Just saw the race is tomorrow so dropped into the thread to get the winners name. Have no idea whatsoever about all the "form" chat, but it looks impressive and complicated all at the same time.
Thanks as always @PeanutsMolloy - hope the missus makes a speedy recovery - Good Luck Everyone!1 -
Cheers @Off_itOff_it said:Just saw the race is tomorrow so dropped into the thread to get the winners name. Have no idea whatsoever about all the "form" chat, but it looks impressive and complicated all at the same time.
Thanks as always @PeanutsMolloy - hope the missus makes a speedy recovery - Good Luck Everyone!
So far so good with MrsM - many thanks.
All the best0 -
Thanks G, hope the other half is better ASAP
Went with Spanish Harlem as the Jockey is clearly a top fella1 -
Gavin Cromwell and Conor Stone-Walsh, who will ride Final Orders (25/1) for the yard tomorrow, won the Topham with Will The Wise this pm in a time fractionally fast of standard.
2nd Ile Atlantique for Mullins & Townend (I Am Maximus tomorrow)
3rd Madara for Skelton & Skelton (Panic Attack tomorrow)
I'd certainly be happy with that.0 -
Sponsored links:
-
The owner is the boss of Randox who sponsor the race.Henry Irving said:Thanks G, hope the other half is better ASAP
Went with Spanish Harlem as the Jockey is clearly a top fella1 -
Cheers Henry,Henry Irving said:Thanks G, hope the other half is better ASAP
Went with Spanish Harlem as the Jockey is clearly a top fella
Me and Mrs M much appreciate your good wishes and she sends her fondest.
He's my favourite horse in the race - an out and out stayer and really deserves some luck.
I trust you saw the 4 Winning Candidates earlier?
You must be on Champ Kiely surely.
0 -
Cheers @soapy_jonessoapy_jones said:Hey Peanuts, late catching up on this thread this year, but first things first and more importantly, best wishes to the Mrs mate.
Now just gotta work through the thread for my picks...
Very kind of you.
SummaryBEST WINNING PROFILES:
· I Am Maximus (nap)
· High Class Hero
· Champ Kiely
BEST PLACE PROFILES (not much between these - could be any order):
· Gorgeous Tom (borderline Winning potential)
· Top Of The Bill
· Spanish Harlem
· Final Orders
Best outsider to grab a Top 8 Finish: Marble Sands
0 -
Marble Sands has been hammered in the Top Finish market.
I got 8 places at 9s yesterday - now 5.25
Top Of The Bill as well
Yesterday 9s for 7 places - now 60 -
Yes, I saw it was on your short list and the name swung it. I also went for high class hero.PeanutsMolloy said:
Cheers Henry,Henry Irving said:Thanks G, hope the other half is better ASAP
Went with Spanish Harlem as the Jockey is clearly a top fella
Me and Mrs M much appreciate your good wishes and she sends her fondest.
He's my favourite horse in the race - an out and out stayer and really deserves some luck.
I trust you saw the 4 Winning Candidates earlier?
You must be on Champ Kiely surely.1 -
If you want to back an outsider for a Top 8 or Top 10 Finish now, might be worth a look at a Bet365 Bet Builder including, say, I Am Maximus finishing first 3:
That would be I AM MAXIMUS first 3 &
MARBLE SANDS Top 8 = 17s / Top 10 = 13s
TOP OF THE BILL Top 8 = 17s / Top 10 = 13s
OR
Both Max & Grangeclare West to finish first 4 AND
MARBLE SANDS Top 10 = 46s
or
TOP OF THE BILL Top 10 = 46s
completion rate -
MARBLE SANDS is particularly strong - 30 from 31 races - he was ridden conservatively when he won at Cheltenham and you’d think Woods will be similarly patient with a view to completion
TOP OF THE BILL 23 from 251 -
I’ve just had a few final nibbles of 3-way Top Finish Bet Builders:
I AM MAXIMUS Top 3
GORGEOUS TOM Top 5
MARBLE SANDS Top 10
= 76s
GORGEOUS TOM Top 6
CHAMP KIELY Top 6
TWIG Top 10 (as last year)
= 81s
I AM MAXIMUS Top 3
CHAMP KIELY Top 5
TOP OF THE BILL Top 10
= 81s
2 -
Back to the drawing board after Now Is The Hour came out.
I've landed on: Grangeclare West, Monty's Star, Champ Kiely, Jagwar and Final Orders for the exotics.
Good luck all and a pleasure following the thread Peanuts.1 -
-
Ok, so they weren't my final Bet Builder nibbles.
Decided to go for some "savers" that are based not on backing a horse unfancied by the model to win but, albeit at a high individual risk-return profile, on the model hitting the bar (as it not infrequently does).
Outside of the places that I have e/w, I'm looking for it to produce 3 of the first 5~8 home plus a Top 10 Finish from AN Other it likes.
Thus, these are low stake 4-way "savers" (not in the conventional sense of the term!) that also enhance potential jackpot returns.
Obviously if the model chooses this year to crash and burn I'm screwed but I have to and am happy to back my model.
I've taken its 3 Win selections that I think are most reliable to complete competitively but maybe find a few that crash the party as the base of the bet in tandem with 3 alternatives from the most "reliable" or stamina-laden outsiders as the Top 10 finisher and have had 3 nibbles as follows:
Max Top 5
Tom Top 7
Champ Top 8
Twig Top 10
= 201s
Max Top 5
Tom Top 8
Champ Top 8
Marble Sands Top 10
= 201s
Max Top 5
Tom Top 7
Champ Top 7
Spanish Harlem Top 10
= 201s
and an Ultimate Saver
Max Top 6
Champ Top 8
Tom Top 8
= 36s
Obviously all cooked if any of these of my "most solid" 3 hits misfortune.
PS The model really likes HCH as a potential winner/near-misser but I can't totally rule out his PU PU being the result of an issue and as he's not one of the picks of the Mullins jockies, I prefer not to use him for this purpose.
1
