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Grand National 2026

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  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847
    edited February 10


    All of us want to pick the GN winner though many (like me) bet with each-way considerations.

    If you simply want to go for the jugular, here's a quick and dirty test, applying 3 very solid stats for GN Winners (but winners only) since 2013, as a first-screen towards finding the winner. 

    It eliminates almost 75% of the currently top-rated 64 entries (down to OR142) to leave 17 eligible potential winners: 


    1.      Must have Northern Dancer in topline of pedigree (12/12 last GN winners from 58% of runners)

    Eliminate:

    Grey Dawning

    Grangeclare West

    L’Homme Presse

    Gentlemansgame

    Lecky Watson

    Champ Kiely

    Impaire et Passe

    Mr Vango

    Iroko

    Handstands

    Stella Story

    Ile Atlantique

    French Dynamite

    Jordans

    Panic Attack

    Monbeg Genius

     

    2.      Must have Wild Risk on damside or sire’s damside  (12/12 from 64% of runners)

    Eliminate:

    Haiti Couleurs

    Perceval Legallois

    Captain Cody

    Oscars Brother

    Imperial Saint

    Hyland

    Pied Piper

    Soul Icon

    Myretown

     

    3.      Must be a 1st or 2nd season chaser or former winner  (11/11 from 28% of runners)

    Eliminate:

    Banbridge

    Gerri Colombe

    Spillanes Tower

    Flooring Porter

    Montys Star

    Appreciate It

    Three Card Brag

    Beauport

    Aint That A Shame

    The Real Whacker

    Spanish Harlem

    Favori De Champdou

    Now Is The Hour

    Intense Raffles

    Final Orders

    Twig

    Marble Sands

    Top Of The Bill

    Stolen Silver

    Amirite

    Yeah Man

    Buddy One

     

    According to fundamental stats, and barring gross misfortune, THE WINNER SHOULD BE 1 OF THESE 17 LEFT STANDING: 

    Assuming those that simply need a single outing get one, those in italics won't (or will need to win or near-miss in a prep in order to) meet another strong stat for recent winners (only): run at least 3 times in the season prior to the GN, including at least 1 win or <5L near-miss  (11/11 from 61% of runners)

    • NICK ROCKETT - can't run 3 times prior
    • I AM MAXIMUS
    • WESTERN FOLD *
    • FIREFOX *
    • BETTER DAYS AHEAD - won't run 3 times prior
    • HIGH CLASS HERO
    • RESPLENDENT GREY
    • QUAI DE BOURBON - needs to win or near-miss
    • CROKE PARK - needs to win or near-miss
    • GORGEOUS TOM * 
    • ANSWER TO KAYF  
    • JAGWAR 
    • PAGGANE
    • BLIZZARD OF OZ
    • JOHNNYWHO *
    • LEAVE OF ABSENCE
    • SEARCH FOR GLORY

    Note * these 4 represent the mtDNA L3a1b which has the highest GN representation of any haplotype since 2013 with 62 runners (13.5% of fields) but has produced no winner (in fact none since 2005)

     


  • Penworthy in the Spectator on Friday gave Resplendent Grey so had a little e/w.

    Looking forward to adding a few more from your selections.

    Great work as always Peanuts.


  • StarryNight
    StarryNight Posts: 82
    edited February 9


    Perceval Legallois

     :D I forgot about this lad but it's not going to happen!
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847


    ......

     

    According to fundamental stats, and barring gross misfortune, THE WINNER SHOULD BE 1 OF THESE 17 LEFT STANDING: 

    Assuming those that simply need a single outing get one, those in italics won't (or will need to win or near-miss in a prep in order to) meet another strong stat for recent winners (only): run at least 3 times in the season prior to the GN, including at least 1 win or <5L near-miss  (11/11 from 61% of runners)

    • NICK ROCKETT - can't run 3 times prior
    • I AM MAXIMUS
    • WESTERN FOLD *
    • FIREFOX *
    • BETTER DAYS AHEAD - won't run 3 times prior
    • HIGH CLASS HERO
    • RESPLENDENT GREY
    • QUAI DE BOURBON - needs to win or near-miss
    • CROKE PARK - needs to win or near-miss
    • GORGEOUS TOM * 
    • ANSWER TO KAYF  
    • JAGWAR 
    • PAGGANE
    • BLIZZARD OF OZ
    • JOHNNYWHO *
    • LEAVE OF ABSENCE
    • SEARCH FOR GLORY

    Note * these 4 represent the mtDNA L3a1b which has the highest GN representation of any haplotype since 2013 with 62 runners (13.5% of fields) but has produced no winner (in fact none since 2005)

     


    One further stat that's a solid one for modern GN winners that potentially takes out 4 of these remaining 17:

    - Must have won or near-missed in a chase with at least 11 runners (12/12) 

    Unless remedied in their prep, eliminate:

    Firefox (6)
    Better Days Ahead (7)
    Croke Park (5)
    Gorgeous Tom (9)

    If none of these are resolved and all the other qualifications above apply, you're left with 9:

    • I AM MAXIMUS
    • HIGH CLASS HERO
    • RESPLENDENT GREY
    • ANSWER TO KAYF (unlike any of the last 12 GN winners, has unsuccessful form at 4m)
    • JAGWAR (must finish in first 4 in a 3m+ chase to qualify to run)
    • PAGGANE 
    • BLIZZARD OF OZ
    • LEAVE OF ABSENCE
    • SEARCH FOR GLORY
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847
    edited February 10
    Understandably Haiti Couleurs gets a 7lb hike in mark to 166 off his Denman Chase win.
    Especially ridden how he was on Saturday, manifestly the Gold Cup is the target.
    He'd carry c 11.10 if he lines up in the Aintree GN.
    Maybe Rebecca doesn't fancy him around Aintree any more than I do  :)

    Paggane only dropped a lb to 147 for her being well turned over as fav in last week's Mares chase. Kept a mark that will probably make the cut but clearly something not right - possibly wind.
    At best she's now minor place potential, purely on her breeding and close 2nd in the Killarney National.
    Huge test against top quality mares to come at the Festival, if she gets a run.
  • StarryNight
    StarryNight Posts: 82
    edited February 10
    Interesting, thank you PM. 
    ANSWER TO KAYF with no 4m test and being 10yo is not for me. I only really trust Maximus as a 10yo to make it.

    • BLIZZARD OF OZ
    • LEAVE OF ABSENCE
    • SEARCH FOR GLORY
    The last two at 66/1, Blizzard at 100/1 which is tempting, but will those run at all

  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847
    Interesting, thank you PM. 
    ANSWER TO KAYF with no 4m test and being 10yo is not for me. I only really trust Maximus as a 10yo to make it.

    • BLIZZARD OF OZ
    • LEAVE OF ABSENCE
    • SEARCH FOR GLORY
    The last two at 66/1, Blizzard at 100/1 which is tempting, but will those run at all

    Agree with you about Answer To Kayf.
    On the face of it he's got a nice enough pedigree but there's something about sons of Kayf Tara - they just don't get 4m+. Blaklion's 4th in the GN was after he ran out of gas.
    ATK's 20+L defeat over 31.5f (every chance, no excuse) supports that.
    Those other 3 don't score highly enough in other stats for me.
    Cheers
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847
    edited February 11
    Interesting, thank you PM. 
    ANSWER TO KAYF with no 4m test and being 10yo is not for me. I only really trust Maximus as a 10yo to make it.

    • BLIZZARD OF OZ
    • LEAVE OF ABSENCE
    • SEARCH FOR GLORY
    The last two at 66/1, Blizzard at 100/1 which is tempting, but will those run at all

    Agree with you about Answer To Kayf.
    On the face of it he's got a nice enough pedigree but there's something about sons of Kayf Tara - they just don't get 4m+. Blaklion's 4th in the GN was after he ran out of gas.
    ATK's 20+L defeat over 31.5f (every chance, no excuse) supports that.
    Those other 3 don't score highly enough in other stats for me.
    Cheers
    Actually, something occurred to me yesterday that's causing me to modify my view (becoming more positive) about Answer To Kayf
    It is true that Kayf Tara's have a poor record at 4m+, notwithstanding Blaklion's 4th & 6th in GNs.
    And yet Kayf Tara's pedigree is very similar to Old Vic's (both by Sadlers Wells, with similar Wild Risk on the damside and sharing the same mtDNA), who had a terrific record in GNs (especially in old GNs, when his progeny was at its peak) - Comply Or Die, Don't Push it, Black Apalachi (2nd) were all sons of Old Vic.
    As was Vics Canvas.
    And also remarkably similar is Answer To Kayf's profile with Vics Canvas; a 2nd season chaser with low chase mileage despite being a 13 year-old when he was 3rd in the 2016 GN on testing ground, having led after the last. Indeed he was unfortunate not to have finished closer, having nearly buried himself on landing at 1st Bechers - incredible recovery by horse and jockey.
    So, firstly, I would be wary of ruling out a 2nd season chaser with low mileage (as 10 yo ATK also is) simply on age.
    Secondly, ATK ticks a lot more pedigree boxes than any of Kayf Tara's GN runners to date, including Blaklion.
    Indeed, exactly like Vics Canvas but unlike any of the 6 sons of Kayf to run in a GN:
    • both are meaningfully linebred (>5%) to Wild Risk 
    • both ATK and VC have x2 Prix Du Cadran (20f Group 1) winner Buckskin (sire of Amberleigh House) prominent in their damside
    • both represent the outperforming N2a mtDNA. ATK is from Family 1n, as was One For Arthur though they're only distantly related. He's a little closer related to a GN3rd of yesteryear Superior Finish. In fact, all 6 other Kayf Tara's to run represented GN-underperforming mtDNA haplotypes
    Aside from the Vics Canvas similarity:
    • ATK's meaningfully linebred to Timeform 142 rated Abernant; 4 of the 12 horses with similar to run in a modern GN produced near-missers Pleasant Company and Vanillier and placers Bless The Wings and Galvin (x2 frame-making outperformance) 
    • Has Flemensfirth (sire of 3 GN 2nds) as his damsire - only 5 horses have run in a GN with him as their damsire; 2 have won - Noble Yeats (also 4th) and Nick Rockett
    But what about that 25L defeat over 4m at Punchestown last May? No other modern GN winner has a prior failure in their sole attempt at 4m.
    • 2nd that day was beaten 15L and it's arguably more the case that the winner, who sprinted clear, was thrown in at the weights in a decent contest - running respectably next outing in the PP Hdcp off 14lbs higher; the 2nd subsequently winning off a higher mark and the 5th home winning off 10lbs higher. On reviewing the race, to my eyes it's more the case of ATK being a one-paced "no impression", as described by ATR, than the "weakened 2 out", as the RP had it.
    • the going was quick Yielding that day and ATK definitely needs decent cut at the very least. His best 3 chase RPRs have come on Soft or Heavy and his trainer's stated "soft ground is a big help to him".
    So, given the unique strengths of his pedigree relative to any other Kayf Tara progeny to have a tilt to date, the issue for ATK may be less the trip and more the going at Aintree.

    He's back on my one list to consider as place material.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847
    To summarize my model's best-rated candidates, after all this farting about.

    Already backed:

    I AM MAXIMUS (nap) at 12/1  
    HIGH CLASS HERO at 50/1  
    RESPLENDENT GREY at 40/1 
    SPANISH HARLEM at 50/1

    2 to be added at some point from:

    BETTER DAYS AHEAD currently 50/1, a definite if he doesn't head to Fairyhouse
    NOW IS THE HOUR 33/1
    ANSWER TO KAYF 66/1
    TOP OF THE BILL 100/1 - would have to win or go close in Saturday's GN Trial
    PAGGANE 100/1 - unlikely, other than possibly a Top 10 Finish

  • Starinnaddick
    Starinnaddick Posts: 4,459
    Looking forward to seeing the weights next Tuesday 17th.

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  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847
    Looking forward to seeing the weights next Tuesday 17th.
    We'll possibly see more bookies offering 5 places from then, though they'll no doubt trim prices.
  • Have you seen what Corbiere vel Raymondo wrote on the blue forum?: 
    I have just read today on Irish Racing Post that Nick Rockett has had some niggles which have kept him from running, Willie Mullins says he wanted to run in Cheltenham Gold Cup but looking unlikely at present. He will need at least 1 run this season to be eligible got GN so I've Cashed Out My Ante Post Bet placed months ago.

    That does it for me, he hasn't got much time to catch up, and who knows what's wrong with the horse..
  • Looking forward to seeing the weights next Tuesday 17th.
    We'll possibly see more bookies offering 5 places from then, though they'll no doubt trim prices.
    I have never understood why anyone would use a bookie. You will always get better odds on Betfair and they don't ban you for putting £50 on a 20/1 shot
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847
    Looking forward to seeing the weights next Tuesday 17th.
    We'll possibly see more bookies offering 5 places from then, though they'll no doubt trim prices.
    I have never understood why anyone would use a bookie. You will always get better odds on Betfair and they don't ban you for putting £50 on a 20/1 shot
    If you’re betting Win only, I agree.
    But there’s no Place market at the moment on Betfair and even when it opens, it’s typically illiquid and in many cases offers less attractive odds than 1/5, certain less than 1/4 the odds for a place. 
    So if you’re an each way punter, as I am, and you want to take early prices, as I do when I’m certain of a selection, the bookies are the only option.
  • oldbloke
    oldbloke Posts: 940
    edited February 12
    Willie Mullins finally admitting Nick Rockett has had niggles this season. Also, feel the Irish NH trainers title may have a large impact on runners in this years Grand National at Aintree
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847
    edited February 12
    oldbloke said:
    Willie Mullins finally admitting Nick Rockett has had niggles this season. Also, feel the Irish NH trainers title may have a large impact on runners in this years Grand National at Aintree
    There’s going to be a lot of guesswork about which of his and Elliott’s with Aintree entries may opt for Fairyhouse.
    Anything they say about individual horses you’d probably be advised to take with a pinch of salt but no doubt they’ll be seriously targeting the Irish GN.
    At least it’s virtually inconceivable for Max. Question for him is the GC.
  • Looking forward to seeing the weights next Tuesday 17th.
    We'll possibly see more bookies offering 5 places from then, though they'll no doubt trim prices.
    I have never understood why anyone would use a bookie. You will always get better odds on Betfair and they don't ban you for putting £50 on a 20/1 shot
    If you’re betting Win only, I agree.
    But there’s no Place market at the moment on Betfair and even when it opens, it’s typically illiquid and in many cases offers less attractive odds than 1/5, certain less than 1/4 the odds for a place. 
    So if you’re an each way punter, as I am, and you want to take early prices, as I do when I’m certain of a selection, the bookies are the only option.
    My alternative to each way (sort of) is to back a horse to win then lay it in running at a much lower price, if it is anywhere near the front close to home the bet will be taken and it can often fade away and finish well out of the first four so i win again.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847
    edited February 12
    Looking forward to seeing the weights next Tuesday 17th.
    We'll possibly see more bookies offering 5 places from then, though they'll no doubt trim prices.
    I have never understood why anyone would use a bookie. You will always get better odds on Betfair and they don't ban you for putting £50 on a 20/1 shot
    If you’re betting Win only, I agree.
    But there’s no Place market at the moment on Betfair and even when it opens, it’s typically illiquid and in many cases offers less attractive odds than 1/5, certain less than 1/4 the odds for a place. 
    So if you’re an each way punter, as I am, and you want to take early prices, as I do when I’m certain of a selection, the bookies are the only option.
    My alternative to each way (sort of) is to back a horse to win then lay it in running at a much lower price, if it is anywhere near the front close to home the bet will be taken and it can often fade away and finish well out of the first four so i win again.

    If the strategy involves trading, I agree the Exchange is definitely the best means. I do a bit myself pre-race if I reckon there's some gross mispricing. Delta Work is a fond memory from 2022 in that respect. But as you say, it's not a proxy for each way.
    In any case, I find it hard enough keeping tabs on where the hell my nags are during a GN. I'd end up royally screwing myself if I were trying to trade positions at the same time. 
    I'd rather take a buddhist approach - relax and smile serenely as all 5 of mine appear in a line in front at the Elbow   :)
    But I hope you make a shed load - good luck.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847
    edited February 14

    Wild pick sorted.
    Nice run from Top Of The Bill, keeping on close 2nd (2L) in the GN Trial to a very progressive winner, despite clattering one down the back last circuit. 
    Picked up a nice place return at 40s that's more than paid for taking an interest at 100s (5 places) for Aintree in running today - cheers Betfred.
    Still available at 100/1 from Fred though most others have cut him to 66s. Will aim to top up with Top 8 or 10 Finish nearer the day depending on prices.
    If you fancy a wild one on your team, he's ya man but get the 5 places. 

    Wouldn't expect much change to his OR145 after today's run (might get a nudge up), which should make the cut and mean c 10.05 on his back.

    Pedigree heavily points to stamina, as he showed today, with a particularly interesting damside:
    • 2nd damsire Bering was damsire of multiple Ascot Gold Cup winner Stradivarius
    • Le Fabuleux (son of Wild Risk and himself a "P" Chef De Race (i.e. influence for stamina) conspicuous as his 5th damsire (Le Fab is 3rd damsire of I Am Maximus)
    • 4th damsire Green Dancer (3rd damsire of Tiger Roll - Le Fab also conspicuous on Tiger's damside)
    • TOTB's grand-dam was a Fillies Group 1 winner at a mile.
    • has the out-performing N2a mtDNA
    Sire Fame And Glory, another Ascot GC winner, was by Sadlers Wells - 8 of last 10 GN winners had SW in their topline and 12 of last 12 had SW's sire Northern Dancer in their topline (100% winners from 58% of fields).

    Best on Spring ground, which he had today and runs well when fresh, winning last 2 starts after a >50 day break (56 days to the big one after today).

    His Achilles Heel is his tendency to jump a little left and his propensity to clatter one - sounds bad for an Aintree GN but, though still big, the fence construction is more forgiving than it once was.

    It's bordering on the insane ....... (no let's get real, it IS insane) to imagine him winning it for Mr Grand National of yesteryear Nigel Twiston-Davies (Earth Summit and Bindaree), of course, but a big run for a long way up-front is a definite possibility and if he's still in the mix crossing the Melling Road 2nd time, ........... ?? 

    Last time a Twiston Davies steed made the frame in a GN was Blaklion in 2017 - his previous outing was a close 2nd in the Haydock GN Trial!
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847
    edited February 15
    Hmm. Interesting post-weights entry for GN fav Iroko - next Saturday's Kempton's Ladbrokes Trophy (Racing Post Chase as was, won by Rough Quest in his GN winning year).
    I guess he'll also get an entry for the Kelso Premier Chase, which he ran in last year, in early March.
    I'd be surprised if he runs in the Kempton showpiece handicap, which would be a highly competitive affair as usual. If he takes up the assignment, he'd carry topweight.
    One possible rival also with a GN entry (a 100/1 shot for Aintree) who could run well next Saturday (currently 20/1) if Kempton produces the decent surface for which it's renowned, is Leave Of Absence.
    An unexposed 2nd season chaser (creditable 3rd to Haiti Couleurs in the Denman Chase) and who runs like a step up in trip would really suit, I'm running the slide rule over him again for Aintree as there's an unusual component to his pedigree that could be a positive, may be as a Top 8 or 10 Finish candidate at the right price.
    More anon.

     
      


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  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847
    edited February 17
    To elaborate upon the interesting component to Leave Of Absence's pedigree that piques a possible interest in a long-priced place candidate.

    He's by a first-time GN-sire, the St Leger winner Masked Marvel. And what makes Masked Marvel interesting is that he was by Montjeu.

    Montjeu (a son of Sadlers Wells and in whose damside Wild Risk is prominent) was a x6 Group 1 winner (10.5~12f) but more significantly has been prominent in the topline of 3 GN winners (Tiger Roll, I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett) and 2 other frame-makers (Walk In The Mill and Farclas). 

    In fact of just 9 different horses with Montjeu as their Grand-Sire that have run 11 times in a GN in total, 5 of them have recorded 4 wins and 3 places between them (Mister Coffey, Foxy Jacks, Recite A Prayer and Limerick Lace being the unsuccessful)


    If Montjeu as Grand-Sire is a + in a GN runner's pedigree, is there something else we can observe in a pedigree that might sort the Tiger Rolls from the Walk In The Mills and the Foxy Jacks, and thus the potential winners and potential placers from likely Also Rans?

    There's no doubt many factors but an important one may be the quality of a runner's Damsire (i.e. its maternal Grandfather).

    Both Tiger Roll and I Am Maximus had a Damsire (Entrepreneur and Poliglote respectively) that were not only Group 1 winners at 8f+ but had also produced Group 1 winners at 8f+.
    Nick Rockett had a Damsire (Flemensfirth) that had won a G1 at 10f and had produced as Damsire a GN winner (Noble Yeats) and as Sire x3 GN 2nds

    - Walk In The Mill's DS was a Gr1 8f winner but produced no Group 1 or GN winners
    - Farclas' DS produced Gr1 winners at 8~9f but was not a Gr 1 winner itself
    - Mister Coffey's (he ran well for a long way when 8th in 2023) was close, being the required producer but winning a Gr1 at only 6.5f
    - Limerick Lace's struck out on both counts
    - so did Foxy Jacks'
    - only Recite A Prayer (badly hampered and UR early in the chaotic 2023 GN) had a Damsire (Old Vic) that matches Nick Rockett's


    In this year's entries down to current OR142, those with Montjeu as their Grand-Sire are:

    I Am Maximus (by Authorized)
    Nick Rockett (Walk In The Park)
    Spillanes Tower (WITP)
    Montys Star (WITP)
    Firefox (WITP)
    Resplendent Grey (WITP)
    Croke Park (WITP)
    Final Orders (Camelot)
    Leave Of Absence (Masked Marvel)
    Top Of The Bill (Fame And Glory)
    Search For Glory (F&G)

    Aside from the 2 previous GN winners, which have a Damsire that tick one or both boxes?

    These tick neither box (i.e. consistent with Also Rans):

    - Montys Star
    - Croke Park

    These tick 1 box (i.e. consistent with former GN Placers):

    - Firefox
    - Final Orders
    - Leave Of Absence
    - Search For Glory

    These tick both boxes (i.e. consistent with former GN Winners):

    - Spillanes Tower
    - Resplendent Grey
    - Top Of The Bill

    Of course, there's a lot more to a GN winning pedigree than matching up thus (and it's obviously not a sine qua non), but it's arguably a good start........ or maybe the whole thing's a load of bollocks  :)

    EDIT
    The more I look at Spillanes Tower's pedigree, the more inclined I am to add him to my shortlist for the final member of my team. If he were a 2nd season chaser his stat-profile would be winning calibre on its own strength but, realistically given the weight he'd likely carry at Aintree and the opposition, a place is probably his upside potential.
    If he goes close in the Gold Cup (and if the weather stays wet, he'd have a chance) and connections wanted him to line up in the GN, he'd likely get my nod but who knows what his price will be then?
    I've taken an e/w hedging interest in him, alongside a win bet on Haiti Couleurs, as my GC interests.
    And there's still Now Is The Hour (targeted again at the NH Chase) and Answer To Kayf as my model's alternatives for Aintree.
    Tricky choice for the final slot and one to be made nearer the day.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847
    edited February 17
    RP gives Top Of The Bill a career-best RPR153 (+3lbs) for his staying on 2L 2nd in the GN Trial off OR145.
    Always nice to see a career-best RPR at the furthest trip attempted.
    We'll find out the handicapper's reaction, along with all GN weights, tomorrow. If the RPR is a guide, it could be OR148, which would very likely make the cut and give him c 10.07.

    EDIT
    Tues morning and the handicapper has raised TOTB 2lbs to 147.
    Last of the card in the last 2 GNS, the first with the reduced fields, were 146 and 145 respectively.
    Should get a  run.

  • Wild pick sorted.
    Nice run from Top Of The Bill, keeping on close 2nd (2L) in the GN Trial to a very progressive winner, despite clattering one down the back last circuit. 
    Picked up a nice place return at 40s that's more than paid for taking an interest at 100s (5 places) for Aintree in running today - cheers Betfred.l!
    Congrats, I had TOTB as well  :)
    I've put a penny on Intense Raffles in Eider Handicap because maybe it's a test run for him and the 100/1 GN right now will pay out... not hoping much though.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847
    edited February 17

    Wild pick sorted.
    Nice run from Top Of The Bill, keeping on close 2nd (2L) in the GN Trial to a very progressive winner, despite clattering one down the back last circuit. 
    Picked up a nice place return at 40s that's more than paid for taking an interest at 100s (5 places) for Aintree in running today - cheers Betfred.l!
    Congrats, I had TOTB as well  :)
    I've put a penny on Intense Raffles in Eider Handicap because maybe it's a test run for him and the 100/1 GN right now will pay out... not hoping much though.
    Well done that man on TOTB! Great stuff. It was ludicrous he was rag on Saturday.
    What the hell are they doing with Intense Raffles?
    He’s a quality stayer that needed rehabbing after Aintree.
    But they keep coming over here when he’s done nothing away from Ireland and specifically Fairyhouse. 
    If he’s ready to go again next Saturday he could presumably have stayed at home and run him in the Irish GN Trial last Sunday.
    May be the Eider offers a bigger prize (haven’t compared) but you need to get him finishing a race first.
    Should be targeted at the Irish GN again rather than Aintree IMHO.
  • Yeah, I wonder, will show what form this Sat hopefully.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847
    Yeah, I wonder, will show what form this Sat hopefully.
    Be interesting - good luck
  • Every year they mess about with this lunch. Just tell us the weights. I've been waiting since twelve o'clock and as Baldrick once said so far they have advanced no further than an asthmatic ant with some heavy shopping.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847
    edited February 17
    Every year they mess about with this lunch. Just tell us the weights. I've been waiting since twelve o'clock and as Baldrick once said so far they have advanced no further than an asthmatic ant with some heavy shopping.
    Totally agree. Everything's about milking the ....


  • Every year they mess about with this lunch. Just tell us the weights. I've been waiting since twelve o'clock and as Baldrick once said so far they have advanced no further than an asthmatic ant with some heavy shopping.
    Totally agree. Everything's about milking the ....


    They say they will be announced at 3pm https://x.com/AintreeRaces
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,847
    edited February 17
    Neither I Am Maximus nor High Class Hero entered for Saturday's Bobbjo.

    Bit of a concern about High Class Hero's wellbeing as he was scratched from the Irish GN Trial last Sunday and has no entries for Cheltenham.

    Might confirm Max is going to have a tilt at the GC and, with the weather, who could blame connections?
    If so, a 4-week gap to Aintree no doubt factored into thinking.

    All 11 entered for the Bobbyjo (won by the last 2 GN winners, both Willie Mullins' steeds of course) have GN entries:
    Answer To Kayf (trainer’s indicated this is his Aintree prep and he’ll likely go for the GN regardless of going, though would prefer soft)
    Captain Cody (Mullins)
    Champ Kiely (Mullins)
    Gerri Colombe
    Grangeclare West (Mullins)
    Intense Raffles
    Jordans
    Lecky Watson (Mullins)
    Spanish Harlem (Mullins)
    Stellar Story
    Three Card Brag