Attention: Please take a moment to consider our terms and conditions before posting.
Grand National 2026
Comments
-
If it ain't broke, don't fix it is a sound adage.
And I think putting blinkers on Resplendent Grey today was a case in point.
He can get behind in races but they served to light him up too much and he was very keen early on, so I wouldn't read too much into him folding before the home straight as regards readiness for 11 April - assuming he goes there.
Ditto Iroko.
Both can be competitive over shorter in smaller fields but in a big-field handicap, they want at least 3.5 miles and the pace on the quick ground over just 25f today made life uncomfortable for one that did too much early and another lumping a big absolute weight.
34f on ground with at least a little more juice will be a different kettle of fish IMO and 66/1 for Resplendent Grey is a nuts over-reaction.
Iroko is now where he should have been all along IMO at 14s.1 -
Yes, looked like was just about to challenge for the lead, when this happened.PeanutsMolloy said:Well that was a terrific run from Search For Glory in the Ultima off the same OR145 he has for Aintree (though he won't benefit from any jockey claim in the big one). Looked like a serious challenger to win when pitching on landing at the last and unseating.
I have Resplendent Grey on a free bet so it stays put, though I doubt they will send him to GN.
And indeed, the crazy over-betting on Iroko finally stopped a bit. Johnnywho jumped from 50/1 to 16s. I don't plan to join here.
I know it doesn't matter for GN but Lossiemouth! What a great horse!
1 -
Absolutely.StarryNight said:
Yes, looked like was just about to challenge for the lead, when this happened.PeanutsMolloy said:Well that was a terrific run from Search For Glory in the Ultima off the same OR145 he has for Aintree (though he won't benefit from any jockey claim in the big one). Looked like a serious challenger to win when pitching on landing at the last and unseating.
I have Resplendent Grey on a free bet so it stays put, though I doubt they will send him to GN.
And indeed, the crazy over-betting on Iroko finally stopped a bit. Johnnywho jumped from 50/1 to 16s. I don't plan to join here.
I know it doesn't matter for GN but Lossiemouth! What a great horse!
Not the first but always fantastic to watch a super mare strut her stuff.
Suspect you’re right about RG. Shame if so.
I prefer Jagwar to Johnnywho for a GN but I still have him as minor place potential at best.Given the way my ante posts have been running, I’m truly thankful Max is going straight there 😁1 -
Search For Glory is indeed accorded a career-high chase RPR151 (GNOR+6), confirming GN Place Potential by my model’s reckoning, assuming a sound surface.0
-
Completed missed that Now Is The Hour runs in the Brown Advisory tomorrow.
Hadn't occurred to me that Cromwell would throw him into a Grade 1 in which he's sure to be overmatched at level weights, particularly on quick ground.
I would have thought he'd have run in a Hdcp - either today's 30f Novice or the XC tomorrow.
Scratching my head about this one.
In theory he continues to flash away on my radar screen for Aintree so watching closely, even if bemused.
80/1 says it all BUT if he were to run well enough to notch a career-best RPR to 156 (+5 on his Thyestes win), he'd certainly confirm Place Potential for the GN.
However, as with others, his trainer's been less than certain that Aintree is his target.0 -
NITH did very well, considering. Hopefully the 5th spot gets him better RPR.
Soldier Reeves and Salver go on my list of future interests, esp. the former great run catching up from far end.1 -
Absolutely. Fair play to Cromwell.
Not sure the quality of the race will stand up any better than last year's, given the number involved late but NITH ran a blinder. Surely a new career-best RPR - we'll see.
And proved that quick ground is no problem - always thought so as he ran so well in last year's NH Chase on quickish ground but Cromwell had voiced concerns that last year's GN going would be too fast for him.
2 secs slow of std today would not be much different to last year's GN.
0 -
Bloody hell, they're like London Buses.
Search For Glory runs a new career-best yesterday to elevate his GN profile to Place Potential.
Now Is The Hour has most probably done likewise in today's novice Grade 1.
And now Final Orders, much to my delight I hasten to add, has followed suit in the XC, though his pedigree suggests most likely 4~6th material.
In theory, one or both of Spillanes Tower and Firefox could join them in they run blinders in the GC.
Make it stop!
How come all my top ante-posts have run like drains and my peripherals have all massively outperformed?
Thankfully some tasty early prices and a nice surplus of hedge-betting profits this year facilitate an extended team. But still got some serious mulling to do.1 -
Bit of deft footwork that Claus Jensen would have been proud of with my GN ante-post selections.
Answer to Kayf cashed out, amazingly at cost (thank you Betfair).
He ran to form in the Bobbyjo but is heavily Soft ground-dependent (looking increasingly unlikely) and others have now superseded him in Profile Ratings.
That £ plus my winning pot from NITH's Thyestes victory, Top of The Bill's tasty-price place in the GNT and today's Final Orders haul have been deployed on Search For Glory at 40/1, Now Is The Hour at 33s and Final Orders at 80/1, bizarrely still available from PP/Betfair/Skybet for an hour after his win today.
8 interests at this stage (hopefully that's it - please win at a canter on Friday Haiti) that will probably get whittled down by trainers deciding not to run (or maybe a missed cut) but the prices are such that 2 of my team placing will generate a 25% profit - as always, I have a weighted book and am aiming for the winner and a place but am indifferent as to which of them score (though I do have some wild win bets on Top Of The Bill and, from way back, Search For Glory that would indeed see me and Mrs Molloy sipping Mint Juleps somewhere exotic pdq).0 -
156 RPR accorded both to Now Is The Hour and to Final Orders for their runs today - upping career-bests by 5 and 7lbs respectively and confirming both as GN Place Potential (NITH having the stronger pedigree profile).
They are stablemates and, with Flooring Porter from the yard already scratched and just Perceval Legallois from the Cromwell stable the only other runner likely to make the cut, hopefully both will line up.
NITH needs 4 above him to come out, Final Orders will likely need 5.0 -
Sponsored links:
-
I've added Search For Glory on a free bet, but it was 28/1 already, was too late to catch any higher.
Also Now is the Hour at 33/1 ew 1-5.
I'm leaving Answer to Kayf alone, the bet is very small so I don't care if I lose it but 66/1 gives a nice return. Just in case.
My list to consider:
Haiti Couloeurs - will he run?
Nick Rockett - what's the form?
Stellar Story - not convinced
Lecky Watson - same
If not Max or Grangeclare, what younger horse can it be? They all seem on par at the moment.1 -
I think Impaire Et Passe is out of GN. Withdrawn.1
-
I think he was one of the Mullins entries that was scratched a couple of weeks ago.StarryNight said:I think Impaire Et Passe is out of GN. Withdrawn.
Judging by Oddschecker, Intense Raffles is going to be scratched.
1 -
For your amusement or bemusement this morning ....... and to think some people think they can predict the outcome of a horse race
https://x.com/ClareCraigPath/status/20321873743319290121 -
Resplendent Grey appears to be scratched from the GN.
Managed to nip in and cash out my stake with Bet365, albeit at a 35% loss.
Shame but I hope it's by choice rather than as a result of a problem.
0 -
PeanutsMolloy said:Resplendent Grey appears to be scratched from the GN.
Managed to nip in and cash out my stake with Bet365, albeit at a 35% loss.
Shame but I hope it's by choice rather than as a result of a problem.
Thanks. Got in and done the same.1 -
One I’d be interested in next year if we’d get a wet spring would be OSCARS BROTHER.What’s his pedigree like for a GN Peanuts?1
-
I think on some earlier page Peanuts wrote Oscar's Brother has a big fat 0 in pedigreeBig_Bob said:One I’d be interested in next year if we’d get a wet spring would be OSCARS BROTHER.What’s his pedigree like for a GN Peanuts? 1 -
Going back to this list from page 2:
- Nick Rockett - 25/1 - would need to set a new career-best RPR (comfortably >170) [will run 17.03]
- Grangeclare West - 25/1 - ditto [won 21.02]
- Spillanes Tower - 33/1 - needs to be in the mix in the Gold Cup (but that could ruin his Aintree chance) [no change]
- Firefox * - 50/1 - ditto [6th in the fast run against Gaelic Warrior]
- Croke Park * - 66/1- needs a creditable run in his prep (a win or near-miss if a 3m+ chase) [no change]
- Gorgeous Tom * - 66/1 - post-weights needs to set a career-high 3m+ chase RPR by at least 5lbs [5th on 02.03]
- Jagwar * - 50/1 - needs a top 4 finish in a 3m+ chase to qualify for a run but, for my model's purposes, also needs to match or better his chase high RPR160 in that race [2nd on the 10th against Johnnywho who is now 16/1 btw]
- Final Orders - 66/1 - needs to up his career-best chase RPR by 6+lbs over 3m+ [won on the 11th , obviously]
- Panic Attack * - 20/1 - needs a win or near-miss in a 3m+ chase [3rd on the 13th]
- Twig - 50/1 - needs to top his best 3m+ chase RPR by 2+lbs [running today but he's 11yo...]
- Marble Sands - 66/1 - ditto by 6+lbs [no change]
- Yeah Man - 66/1 - ditto by 7+lbs [16th on the 12th]
0 -
@StarryNight you're right about my model's score of his pedigree (so he's not for me) but there's usually an angle that could make a runner a potential outlier @Big_BobBig_Bob said:One I’d be interested in next year if we’d get a wet spring would be OSCARS BROTHER.What’s his pedigree like for a GN Peanuts?
Will give you some more considered thoughts after the game and Midlands Nat.
Cheers
0 -
Sponsored links:
-
Thanks for that @StarryNightStarryNight said:Going back to this list from page 2:- Nick Rockett - 25/1 - would need to set a new career-best RPR (comfortably >170) [will run 17.03]
- Grangeclare West - 25/1 - ditto [won 21.02]
- Spillanes Tower - 33/1 - needs to be in the mix in the Gold Cup (but that could ruin his Aintree chance) [no change]
- Firefox * - 50/1 - ditto [6th in the fast run against Gaelic Warrior]
- Croke Park * - 66/1- needs a creditable run in his prep (a win or near-miss if a 3m+ chase) [no change]
- Gorgeous Tom * - 66/1 - post-weights needs to set a career-high 3m+ chase RPR by at least 5lbs [5th on 02.03]
- Jagwar * - 50/1 - needs a top 4 finish in a 3m+ chase to qualify for a run but, for my model's purposes, also needs to match or better his chase high RPR160 in that race [2nd on the 10th against Johnnywho who is now 16/1 btw]
- Final Orders - 66/1 - needs to up his career-best chase RPR by 6+lbs over 3m+ [won on the 11th , obviously]
- Panic Attack * - 20/1 - needs a win or near-miss in a 3m+ chase [3rd on the 13th]
- Twig - 50/1 - needs to top his best 3m+ chase RPR by 2+lbs [running today but he's 11yo...]
- Marble Sands - 66/1 - ditto by 6+lbs [no change]
- Yeah Man - 66/1 - ditto by 7+lbs [16th on the 12th]
I'll do an update shortly (not sure why I left Search For Glory and Answer To Kayf off that list but they should have been there - fell between my actual selections at the time and the Minor Place Contenders).
Going through all the top 50 for a final check for any errors/hidden angles
Cheers
0 -
So, Oscar's Brother.
From a CV perspective, obviously he's in his 1st season over fences and in his 6 chases to date he's certainly shown ability, his 5.5L 5th in the Brown Advisory a very respectable debut in a Grade 1.
Quite how good that race will prove to be, with <6L covering the first 6, we'll see in due course, but off a fairly high GNOR155 relative to his career-best RPR157 (matched by that Grade 1 run) he'll obviously have to show material progression to figure at Aintree.
Is there anything in his pedigree to suggest that he'll do so in a modern GN?
FWIW, my model's pedigree assessment (0) says no and I can sum it up by the fact that he has:
(a) no Northern Dancer in his sire-line (12/12 GN winners were descendants of ND's male line, from 58% of runners) and
(b) no Wild Risk anywhere in his pedigree
42 that also had neither have run in a GN since 2013 (9.1% of fields) and so statistically you'd have expected 5 of these to have made the frame if these factors were completely irrelevant.
In fact, none of the 42 have made the first 5 home and the best finish from them has been a solitary 27L 6th from Vieux Lion Rouge.
He's also representing the mtDNA L3a1b, which from 140 runners (10.4% of fields) has produced only 1 of the last 35 GN winners (2.9%), being Hedgehunter 21 years ago.
It has produced more frame-makers (16 out of 175, equal to 6.9%), including 3 runners-up in GNs since 2013 (Cappa Bleu, Magic Of Light and Vanillier), but all told this is still meaningfully underperforming in what is a large sample.
However, stats are there to be broken and positives to point to from a pedigree perspective might be:- by Malinas - sire of strong stayer Mighty Thunder (won 32f Scot Nat, 33f Edinburgh Nat and close 2nd in 34f Midlands National)
- his Damsire (Kings Theatre) and 2nd Damsire (Celtic Cone) both sired a GN winner or near-misser (Balthazar King and Earth Summit respectively)
- closely related (sharing maternal Grandmother) to stayer Final Nudge (3rd in the Midlands National and unlucky in his GN run in 2018 - Fell 8th Canal Turn when badly squeezed up for room) and there's some quality in his family, being closely related also to Celtic Shot (career-best RPR171, 9 wins from 21 chases, including x2 Charlie Hall Chase)
But don't let me put you off @Big_Bob if you fancy him - my model is no crystal ball.0 -
Bet365 is now NRNB for the GN. 5 places 1/5 odds for e/w bets.
Just added Better Days Ahead at 50/1 e/w NRNB.1 -
I've swapped a number of them esp. Haiti from 15/1 to 25/1, and High Class Hero from 50/1 to 66/1, where there were no huge losses. Also added Better Days, Leave of Absence and considering adding Search for Glory ew, since I have it on a free single bet but definitely doubt it's going to come first.PeanutsMolloy said:Bet365 is now NRNB for the GN. 5 places 1/5 odds for e/w bets.
Just added Better Days Ahead at 50/1 e/w NRNB.1 -
Cheltenham over and GN preps completed, right? ................. hold the Back Page.
Nick Rockett makes his seasonal debut in Tuesday's 26f Chase at Down Royal taking on 2 possible GN rivals and 2 others.
The Down Royal race has been used by a number of (typically lower-grade) Aintree hopefuls as a final prep down the years, though the last to do so and go on to make the frame in the GN was Nil Desperandum, 4th in 2006.
Typically a small field and weights set by conditions rather than handicap, there can be some bizarre anomalies but surely never more so than this year.
Because heading them as sole topweight is the 14 yo Roi Mage - a regular participant in the race and former winner.
Believe it or not, he'll be giving 3lbs to 9 yo Nick Rockett despite being rated 36lbs lower in the handicap, 10lbs to Gerri Colombe (28lbs lower) and 10lbs to Perceval Legallois (19lbs lower).
If Roi Mage has an impossible task on paper, at least there should be a competitive race between Nick Rockett and Gerri Colombe, meeting broadly on correct relative terms. Perceval Legallois is 9lbs disadvantaged.
Of these 3 GN entries, only Nick Rockett is of potential interest so far as my model is concerned but the question everyone is asking is how fit is he, having his first run since lifting the GN crown last April?
And the question all trend-followers are asking is, is it possible for any horse, let alone a defending champ, to defy the stats that stretch back beyond living memory and win a GN after only 1 prior race in the season?
Most will say "not a hope".
Mely Moss nearly pipped Papillon in 2000 on his first run for a year. More recently, Pleasant Company went down by a Head to Tiger Roll in 2018 and I Am Maximus was 2nd last year, both of them after just 2 (very ordinary) prior runs in the season.
But what is the record in modern GNs for runners that had only 1 prior run?
Of the 32 runners since 2013 to have tried (6.9% of fields), only 10 of them completed the race. But, allowing for the fact that many of these no doubt had suffered hold ups and niggles during the year, it's interesting that 3 of them made the frame (5% of frame-makers so not that badly underperforming):
Alvarado, 4th 11L in 2015 (52 days prior)
Shutthefrontdoor, 5th 13L in 2015 (152 days prior he won on the back of a 203 day break)
Rathvinden, 3rd 5L in 2019 (42 days prior he won the Bobbyjo on the back of a 305 day break - notably trained by Willie Mullins, of course)
The fact is that, with modern training methods, it is possible to present a horse fully-primed for a big race after a lengthy break and preparation entirely at home, though of course one should beware the dreaded "bounce" (i.e. a reaction on the next outing after a successful return).
Notably, not only did Shutthefrontdoor and Rathvinden win their sole outing prior to placing at Aintree but, in doing so, both ran to a new career-best chase RPR (both upping their previous best by 2lbs). That sole outing showed both fitness and progression - in Rathvinden's case, after the GN weights had been framed.
And while instructions to Patrick Mullins may be simply to give him a pipe-opening safe spin (actually I doubt it as I suspect they want to know if it's worth risking him at Aintree at all), if my model were going to rate him potentially to be in the mix on 11 April, Nick Rockett would need to copy Rathvinden, just 25 days before his hoped-for title-defence, and at least approximate his career-best RPR169 notched at Aintree almost a year ago, preferably match or surpass it.
A tall order indeed but there will be countless pairs of eyes glued to screens at 15:38 on Tuesday to see how he does - mine included.0 -
Looks like Haiti Coleurs will run. I can't see him winning after that performance at Cheltenham.0
