Attention: Please take a moment to consider our terms and conditions before posting.
Grand National 2026
Comments
-
@Peanuts, what's your opinion on Quai de Bourbon? I don't see him discussed much. Third recently (with Townend), before that this and last year PU/PU/3rd/BD/UR. Only 7yo so maybe too early. Could he get into the frame?1
-
StarryNight said:@Peanuts, what's your opinion on Quai de Bourbon? I don't see him discussed much. Third recently (with Townend), before that this and last year PU/PU/3rd/BD/UR. Only 7yo so maybe too early. Could he get into the frame?
I like Quai De Bourbon and had him as an early antepost but when I put the full slide rule over the entries, he was just missing marginally on a few of the model's boxes and I cashed out.
I can definitely see him making the places after his 3rd in the Irish behind a winner that was patently thrown in. Beaten 7L, giving HC 7lbs, he'll be getting 15lbs from him at Aintree.
But I wonder if he and/or High Class Hero and/or Lecky Watson are candidates for Mullins to send to Fairyhouse instead. He's only 16/1 for the Irish GN, though that's patently not a decider.
Pedigree-wise his sire is a new kid on the block, though has some positive features, including being sired by a grand-son of Sadlers Wells and linebred to Wild Risk.
Interestingly, QDB and his sire are from the same Family 4n (QDB's 9th Dam was Ivanhowe's 8th Dam, Yenna by the famous French stayer Ksar).
That is rare but not unique and, as it happens, Walk In The Mill (GN4th) was inbred to Family 1u (his 7th Dam was his sire's 6th dam).
There is a breeding theory that promotes such inbreeding to a strong mare and it didn't do WITM any harm.
Though only distantly related (9th Gen), his family also produced Tanganyika, close 2nd in the 34f Midlands National.
Finally, QDB's damsire Muhtathir has sired a winner over 4m and damsired a Prix Du Cadran (20f) winner.
I expect him to run a big race but my model prefers others.
Maybe I'll be having to reconcile him as the outlier winner come 12 April
1 -
All change.
The weather forecast has done a 180 and it now looks like rainfall and overcast conditions pretty much daily up to 10th April - not necessarily anything torrential but enough to stop the track drying out too much.
Best guess is still GS (providing no appreciable rain on race-day) but maybe on slow side of GS.
If the going were to approach Soft, the positives, negatives, neutrals for my model's top-rated profiles are likely to be:
+
I Am Maximus
Spanish Harlem
Answer To Kayf
?Now Is The Hour
-
Final Orders
Top Of The Bill
High Class Hero
?Gorgeous Tom
neutral
Champ Kiely
1 -
Is Gerri Colombe a likely non runner now as it has taken a big walk in the market?
0 -
gah, is Stellar Story going to be a problem now. I've cashed out...PeanutsMolloy said:All change.
The weather forecast has done a 180 and it now looks like rainfall and overcast conditions pretty much daily up to 10th April - not necessarily anything torrential but enough to stop the track drying out too much.
Best guess is still GS (providing no appreciable rain on race-day) but maybe on slow side of GS.
If the going were to approach Soft, the positives, negatives, neutrals for my model's top-rated profiles are likely to be:
+
I Am Maximus
Spanish Harlem
Answer To Kayf
?Now Is The Hour
-
Final Orders
Top Of The Bill
High Class Hero
?Gorgeous Tom
neutral
Champ Kiely0 -
Only ran once during 2025 due to a stifle injury. Recent winner in Ireland beating Nick Rockett although the latter probably needed the run.Starinnaddick said:Is Gerri Colombe a likely non runner now as it has taken a big walk in the market?0 -
There really are some wild prices around for some serious horses.
God knows what the weather will deliver but if it were to come up Soft, current 80/1 shot Mr Vango (close 2nd in the Becher so handles the fences and winner of the 34f Midlands National so gets the trip given his ground) would/should go off <20/1 in my opinion.
I've taken a trading position at >100 on Betfair just as a weather hedge.
80/1 is still available for Champ Kiely - f***ing ridiculous. He'll handle any ground.
They have the same sire, Ocovango.
His progeny have run in 9 chases of 31f+, winning 3 of them (33%).
From 12 runners at 31f+, 5 have won or been placed (42%).
What's wrong with this picture?1 -
Haven't heard anything about him.Starinnaddick said:Is Gerri Colombe a likely non runner now as it has taken a big walk in the market?
It's a very weird market this year.0 -
After his win in Ireland he was about 25/1 and now he is about 80/1 on Betfair.PeanutsMolloy said:
Haven't heard anything about him.Starinnaddick said:Is Gerri Colombe a likely non runner now as it has taken a big walk in the market?
It's a very weird market this year.0 -
Starinnaddick said:
After his win in Ireland he was about 25/1 and now he is about 80/1 on Betfair.PeanutsMolloy said:
Haven't heard anything about him.Starinnaddick said:Is Gerri Colombe a likely non runner now as it has taken a big walk in the market?
It's a very weird market this year.
The big bookies still have him at 20~33/1 - I know Betfair can smell an issue first so not saying there isn't one.
Initially, that Down Royal win looked a useful confirmation of the promising 2nd in the Bobbyjo.
But a couple of days later it was accorded a stunningly poor RPR123.
The problem was the 5L proximity of a 14yo rated 28lbs lower but giving him 3lbs that day.
Betfair can get it wrong but also seems a very illiquid market this year, even 2 weeks before the big day.
0 -
Sponsored links:
-
Yeah, I've added him as well, also Spillanes Tower in case it gets really muddy, We'll see.PeanutsMolloy said:There really are some wild prices around for some serious horses.
God knows what the weather will deliver but if it were to come up Soft, current 80/1 shot Mr Vango (close 2nd in the Becher so handles the fences and winner of the 34f Midlands National so gets the trip given his ground) would/should go off <20/1 in my opinion.
I've taken a trading position at >100 on Betfair just as a weather hedge.
80/1 is still available for Champ Kiely - f***ing ridiculous. He'll handle any ground.
They have the same sire, Ocovango.
His progeny have run in 9 chases of 31f+, winning 3 of them (33%).
From 12 runners at 31f+, 5 have won or been placed (42%).
What's wrong with this picture?1 -
We seem to have cleaned out the 100+s between usStarryNight said:
Yeah, I've added him as well, also Spillanes Tower in case it gets really muddy, We'll see.PeanutsMolloy said:There really are some wild prices around for some serious horses.
God knows what the weather will deliver but if it were to come up Soft, current 80/1 shot Mr Vango (close 2nd in the Becher so handles the fences and winner of the 34f Midlands National so gets the trip given his ground) would/should go off <20/1 in my opinion.
I've taken a trading position at >100 on Betfair just as a weather hedge.
80/1 is still available for Champ Kiely - f***ing ridiculous. He'll handle any ground.
They have the same sire, Ocovango.
His progeny have run in 9 chases of 31f+, winning 3 of them (33%).
From 12 runners at 31f+, 5 have won or been placed (42%).
What's wrong with this picture?
1 -
I didn't put that much on Mr Vango
Maybe just tipped the scales.
I think I'll cash out Iroko, even though on a good price. I don't believe he'll go any close, might not finish the race at all, or even will be scratched any second now. Maybe if there was another race after the issues in the last one just to see what he's like, but as is it's too risky.1 -
I see the Mr Vango position as a cheap insurance policy - if it pisses down, it will definitely make a nice profit in closing it out or I might just keep it as a cheap win-saver. If I weren't using a model (that doesn't quite rate him high enough), or if we were pre-2013, he'd have exactly the CV I'd back on Soft ground.StarryNight said:I didn't put that much on Mr Vango
Maybe just tipped the scales.
I think I'll cash out Iroko, even though on a good price. I don't believe he'll go any close, might not finish the race at all, or even will be scratched any second now. Maybe if there was another race after the issues in the last one just to see what he's like, but as is it's too risky.
Re Iroko, don't end up kicking yourself - especially cos of what some wally said on a forum
BTW, seventowers on the other place is certainly not a wally - his comment about Walk In The Park's over 4m (vis a vis Spillanes) isn't something I'd be worried about (not least cos ST hasn't made my team!) but he knows what he's talking about when it comes to stallions and broodmare sires. By far the best contributor to that forum IMO.1 -
I saw that and killed the bet already
My betting style is a bit wild when it comes to additions. I have my set I don't touch but the rest come and go constantly!1 -
me too - this is a tricky one weather-wise.StarryNight said:I saw that and killed the bet already
My betting style is a bit wild when it comes to additions. I have my set I don't touch but the rest come and go constantly!
I was in and out of Kittys Light 2 years ago as the forecast changed but thankfully was in for the race, despite it being far softer than he wanted - paid out in 5th.
Same this year with Answer To Kayf - back in e/w again when he hit 80s and it didn't take much for that to disappear and he's now best price 66, generally 50.
I want to shed 1 or 2 beforehand to maintain a decent returns' profile but unless the forecast reverts to dry and sunny through the meeting, we may not know for sure how it will ride until day itself, maybe not till race-time even.
Pain in the derriere.1
