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Grand National 2026
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@PeanutsMolloy who is the current picks i was trying to play catch up on the thread but got lost.
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PeanutsMolloy said:Very happy with the place potential for Top Of The Bill, Spanish Harlem and (hopefully one or both of) Final Orders and Now Is The Hour.
But, down to only 2 Winning Calibre members of the team (Max and High Class Hero), I am inclined to add a Win-saver.
Last year I opted for Intense Raffles - totally unfancied by my model by virtue of its pedigree but I went for the best CV stats in the race. He flopped.
This year, on CV stats alone Johhnywho or Favori De Champdou could be the pick but, though Johnnywho’s dam was a 4m winner and FDC is related to Delta Work, neither’s pedigree is any stronger than that of Intense Raffles.
I'm going to choose from a short list of those on the periphery of my model's radar screen that can handle Aintree GS and whose profiles are just short of making my team by virtue of a single pedigree notch and/or CV component.
I've already highlighted Jagwar, and he may well be the choice, but I’ll double back and “tweak-test” other candidates:- Spillanes Tower 33/1 - strong sire and damsires but is German female family good enough? GS might be a bit lively.
- Champ Kiely 80/1 - from family of Corach Rambler, Any Second Now and Gilgamboa - but incongruous topline for a GN winner
- Gorgeous Tom 33/1 - from family of Cahervillahow (2nd in void GN), Cappa Bleu, Double Seven, Walk In The Mill - overall pedigree strength a little light and still a maiden at 3m+
- Panic Attack 25/1 - from family of GN winners Grittar and Maori Venture but topline and no WR are incongruous for a GN winner
A bit more foraging and mulling to do.
Having dug further into each of these 6 that near-miss a Winning Calibre pedigree-rating and having tweak-tested their pedigrees, the one I think is the nearest of the near-missers is CHAMP KIELY, for the reasons below.
80/1 (Bet365) is a nuts price for him and I've decided, instead of a win-saver, to simply add him fully-weighted e/w to my team as its 3rd [potentially] Winning Calibre member. Why?
CV - never the issue, in the sweet spot:- From the Mullins yard, a 10 yo but, by virtue of a 614 day absence from Apr 23, he made his chase debut only 14 months ago. He's thus a 2nd season chaser (10 of last 11 GN winners from 26% of runners) with only 9 chases to his name and unexposed beyond 25f.
- Bar twice (when beaten by a nod on the line and when asked to race just 4 days after Slipping Up when clipping heels early on in December's Savills Chase) he has never been beaten Under Rules outside Grade 1 company.
- 2 Grade 1 wins, the form of both good: a 20f novice hurdle, beating by 9L+ Inothewayurthinkin and Grangeclare West and a 25f novice chase a year ago, storming-clear on Gd/Y (Stellar Story 17L and Gorgeous Tom 31L adrift)
- Handles any ground and will shoulder a very workable 11.01 if he lines up on 11 April.
- "He caught my eye at the DRF (when seventh in the Irish Gold Cup) [last outing, 68 days prior]. I thought he was the only one to travel deep into the race behind all the big boys and I'd be quite sweet on his weight. I think he'll jump and travel, he stays well and I'm very sweet on him." (Patrick Mullins 17 Feb)
- Closely related to Corach Rambler (won, UR), Any Second Now (3rd badly hampered, 2nd, PU badly hamp) and Gilgamboa (4th) - all from the family of Lastofthebrownies of yesteryear (3 GN runs: F 3 out (every chance), 4th, 5th). The only other member of that family (23a) to run in a GN since 2013 was a more distant relative Tranquil Sea (a never-nearer 25L 7th after being hampered early in 2015).
- Like Corach and Gilgamboa, CK benefits from Wild Risk in his pedigree, but his case WR is on the damside and is in tandem with Bold Ruler (a conveyor of toughness); a GN-outperforming combination (42% of GN winners from 14% of runners).
- The first 3 damsires that are unique to CK each have GN positives (in order): DS1 Moscow Society was damsire of Seabass (close 3rd 2011); Buckskin was Amberleigh House's sire and prominent on the damside of Vics Canvas (3rd), Longhouse Poet (6th) and Meetingofthewaters (5th); and Menelek was sire of 2 GN winners (Rag Trade and Hallo Dandy).
The fact is, with a Pedigree rating of 3, strictly by the model's current metrics, he's short of the minimum required for Winning Calibre by just a single notch. He also has an incongruous sire-line, not being a descendant of Northern Dancer.
But there are 2 "tweakable" aspects to his pedigree, the first "very tweakable" indeed:- Firstly, he shares with his 3 closest relatives his 4th damsire Immortality, a grandson of the great broodmare La Troienne. Significantly, all 3 of CK's relatives were meaningfully linebred to La Troienne (a plus in my model's pedigree metrics - x2 frame-making outperformance vs rep) and, while he's not linebred to La Troienne, CK is meaningfully linebred to her daughter Belle Of Troy and dam of Immortality (herself a "Reine-de-Course", i.e. a significant broodmare). She's particularly interesting because she was by Blue Larkspur, one of the 4 famous "Big Heart" stallions found by post-mortem to possess literally a huge heart; a characteristic that should enhance endurance and thought by some to be passed on to female offspring via the X chromosome alone - in this case from Blue Larkspur to Belle Of Troy to Immortality. And, as Immortality is this their common bottom-line damsire, in theory, CK like his relatives may have inherited that "Blue Larkspur large heart". And that could explain collective prowess at a marathon trip.
- So, if the model were to credit linebreeding to Belle Of Troy, as it does to La Troienne, CK would notch a Pedigree rating of 4 - the minimum for Winning Calibre.
- Secondly, 12/12 GN winners since 2013 have had Northern Dancer in their topline (from 58% of runners), as did all 3 of CK's relatives. However, CK's sire (Ocovango, by the top German stallion Monsun and beaten 2L in the 2013 Derby, staying-on) does not and this is an issue for the model when it comes to solid Winning Calibre. However, the fact that 12 of the 28 GN frame-makers beaten <10L (6 of the 10 beaten <5L) were also not descendants of the ND male line indicates that that stat will get broken by a winner at some stage. Why might it be Ocovango, specifically his son Champ Kiely, that breaks the trend?
- 2 of those beaten <10L (accounting for 3 of the 12 instances) were Saint Are (2nd by 2L & 3rd 8L) and Delta Work (3rd and 2nd 8L) and both were by Network who, like Ocovango, was a son of Monsun.
- Ocovango is yet to have a GN runner but his progeny have a promising early record at 4m+: 2 of 4 sons to attempt the trip winning (Inis Oirr in the 31.5f Edinburgh National and Mr Vango, winning the 34f Midlands National and 3 wins from 6 at >28f).
- It's true that 6 runs by 5 other sons of Network and 12 runs by 5 sons of other sons of Monsun have managed no better than 6th (Senior Chief by Gentlewave) in a GN. However, interestingly, of all 12 grandsons of Monsun to run in a GN since 2013, only 3 of them share with CK the outperforming combo of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler on their damside. They include, you've got it, Saint Are and Delta Work (the 3rd Rock The Kasbah, by Shirocco, was BD).
- So, could it be that the key is not specifically Network as sire but the Wild Risk/Bold Ruler damside combination in tandem with a Monsun topline, which both the successful grandsons of Monsun and CK possess?
A quick word on the other near-missing Winning Profiles that I've dived down into further and wrestled with as a "tweak-test":
Panic Attack is a fine 10yo mare with 5 wins from 9 chases, including impressively the 26f Ladbrokes GC (8lbs higher mark now), though the form of that race is not working out brilliantly.
She's related via her 8th dam to GN winners Grittar and Maori Vanture but overall she's just not near enough on pedigree for my liking, missing both Northern Dancer in the topline and any Wild Risk anywhere. Darshaan, her 2nd damsire, is rare and interesting (he was also prominent in GN 8th Galia Des Liteaux's damside) and, while she should run a big race, I think a similar 7~9th is more her ticket.
Spillanes Tower, an 8yo, ticks some good CV boxes despite being in his 3rd season chasing, though I'm not totally convinced by his Cotswold Chase win (26f, the furthest attempted). He looks a strong representative of GN-winning sire Walk In The Park and his damsires are proven producers of Group 1 stayers but the strongly German influence in his female family appears to lack strength. Not the nearest of near-missers for my purposes.
Jagwar, a 7yo 2nd season chaser (8 chases) and officially 5lbs well-in after his staying on, close 2nd in the Ultima (the blanket finish of the first 4 might leave some doubt as to quality), he's clearly got raw talent and could prove highly progressive off 152 (10.10) over a marathon trip, for the reasons I mentioned in a recent post.
His pedigree does have an interesting feature beyond the model's current metrics (i.e. his half brother's staying record) but at 12/1 I'd have to use him as a Win saver and that rawness could be his undoing over the GN fences.
The suggestion that he might have a reluctance to stick his head in front at the line, though probably unfair, is a concern without the place component.
Gorgeous Tom, an 8yo 2nd season chaser, alongside Jagwar he'd be on my short, short-list with Champ Kiely as my "alternative" Winning bet and if Champ Kiely were to scratched, it would be a choice between a win saver on Jagwar or e/w on Gorgeous Tom (I've taken a tactical position at 33s to cover the possibility).
His sire Champs Elysees (a Northern Dancer descendant via Danehill - check), a 12f Group 1 winner, has had 1 GN runner to date (the luckless Cape Gentleman who suffered a career-ending tendon injury in the chaotic 2023 GN) but suggests stamina as sire of an Ascot Gold Cup winner.
The main plank of GT's profile, and it's a strong one, is that he's closely related to Cappa Bleu (GN 4th and 2nd), Double Seven (3rd), Walk In The Mill (4th) and the much-loved Cahervillahow of yesteryear (a short head 2nd with 11.12 in the 1991 Irish GN and 2nd in the 1993 GN that never was (when 30 of 39 runners ran the full race despite a screw up at the start which caused the race to be void). Other than more distant relatives (Godsmejudge, Stellar Notion and Lostintranslation), no other from this tight strain of Family 1u has run in a modern GN, so it rivals Champ Kiely's Family 23a for its consistent GN success.
BUT none of the family had got closer than 6L 3rd and while one can see Gorgeous Tom making the frame, it's likely that he too won't quite have the quality to lift the main prize.
He is a Grade 1 near-misser and I wouldn't be concerned that he's still a maiden at 3m+. In both the Brown Advisory in 2025 (4th L9L) and the Ladbrokes Gold Cup (4th 11L) he was accelerating over the last furlong of the race (the only one of the first 4 to do so at Newbury) and, like Senior Chief last year, he clearly wants further.
Sorry about the length of this. All juicy stuff
2nd Forfeit Stage tomorrow.
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It has been a bit like that with scratchings and Fairyhouse complicating things.palarsehater said:@PeanutsMolloy who is the current picks i was trying to play catch up on the thread but got lost.
The model's top selections (excluding those that are said to be bound for Fairyhouse):Winning Calibre:
- I Am Maximus - best current price 10/1
- High Class Hero - 66/1
- Champ Kiely - 80/1 (a feasible tweak to the model's metrics would see him with the required Winning Profile)
Confirmed Place Potential:
- Top Of The Bill 100/1
- Now Is The Hour 33/1
- Spanish Harlem 66/1
- Final Orders 40/1
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Champ Keily, got a nice ring to it.
Had a e/w nibble off the back of that.
Cheers peanuts.1 -
Thank you, Peanuts!1
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Very basic question please.
If I bet with Bet365 now, and they then change to more than top 5 e/w at a later date, do mine stay at the e/w number when I bet or still benefit?1 -
You'll still be on 5 places 1/5 odds - you retain whatever the place terms are when you make the bet.Athletico Charlton said:Very basic question please.
If I bet with Bet365 now, and they then change to more than top 5 e/w at a later date, do mine stay at the e/w number when I bet or still benefit?
I've stuck with my antepost 4 places for I Am Maximus and 1/4 odds for a place at 12/1 and am happy to do so as I'd rather have the extra price and place fraction as I suspect he either finishes first 3 or not at all.
From memory, once declarations are made (Wed before the race) Bet365 offer various Top 8 or Top 10 Finishes (place bets only). so handy for big price runners unlikely to win it, and I think also a choice of e/w places (4,5,6) but the prices will grade down with the extended places.
Depends on the trade off that suits your view of the horse's chances and also whether the current price is such an outlier that by the time extended places are available, it will be long gone anyway.
If you're thinking of Champ Kiely, 80/1 is a pretty big price - all other bookies are at 50 or 66 and even Betfair is shorter than 80s.
But you pays your money you takes your choice.1 -
Thanks @PeanutsMolloy
I think I will have a little bit now and maybe add some at longer place numbers later.
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Bollox, the more I look at Gorgeous Tom's pedigree, the more it sings to me like a siren call........
Gorgeous Tom, an 8yo 2nd season chaser, alongside Jagwar he'd be on my short, short-list with Champ Kiely as my "alternative" Winning bet and if Champ Kiely were to scratched, it would be a choice between a win saver on Jagwar or e/w on Gorgeous Tom (I've taken a tactical position at 33s to cover the possibility).
His sire Champs Elysees (a Northern Dancer descendant via Danehill - check), a 12f Group 1 winner, has had 1 GN runner to date (the luckless Cape Gentleman who suffered a career-ending tendon injury in the chaotic 2023 GN) but suggests stamina as sire of an Ascot Gold Cup winner.
The main plank of GT's profile, and it's a strong one, is that he's closely related to Cappa Bleu (GN 4th and 2nd), Double Seven (3rd), Walk In The Mill (4th) and the much-loved Cahervillahow of yesteryear (a short head 2nd with 11.12 in the 1991 Irish GN and 2nd in the 1993 GN that never was (when 30 of 39 runners ran the full race despite a screw up at the start which caused the race to be void). Other than more distant relatives (Godsmejudge, Stellar Notion and Lostintranslation), no other from this tight strain of Family 1u has run in a modern GN, so it rivals Champ Kiely's Family 23a for its consistent GN success.
BUT none of the family had got closer than 6L 3rd and while one can see Gorgeous Tom making the frame, it's likely that he too won't quite have the quality to lift the main prize.
He is a Grade 1 near-misser and I wouldn't be concerned that he's still a maiden at 3m+. In both the Brown Advisory in 2025 (4th L9L) and the Ladbrokes Gold Cup (4th 11L) he was accelerating over the last furlong of the race (the only one of the first 4 to do so at Newbury) and, like Senior Chief last year, he clearly wants further.
......
His strain of the 1u family (descendants of the Group 1 winning mare Mackwiller, which includes Wild Risk's son Vimy and, notably, Walk In The Park) is just really interesting from a GN perspective.
Walk In The Park is obviously one of the leading sires around (a GN winner and 4th from only 3 runners to date and a GC winner to his name and no doubt more to come, given his popularity as a stallion)
Vimy was a key son of WR and damsire of 79 GN winner Rubstic.
In terms of GN runners, Family 1u's first GN runner (at least since 1988) was Cappa Bleu in 2012, though we could include Cahervillahow (2nd in the void GN) and the record of all GN runs by descendants of Mackwiller is:
Cappa Bleu 4th 2012 (he was linebred to Mackwiller)
Cappa Bleu 2nd 2013
Double Seven 3rd 2014
Walk In The Mill 4th 2019 (being by Walk In The Park, was linebred to Mackwiller's daughter Muscida)
4 runs, 4 places (5 from 5 if we include the void race, in which 30 of the 39 runners actually ran).
Godsmejudge, Stellar Notion and Lostintranslation also represented 1u but were not from the Mackwiller strain.
Inbreeding to a strong family, which is a popular and often successful breeding strategy, has been a particular feature in this family.
Gorgeous Tom, like Cappa Bleu and Double Seven specifically, is descended from Mackwiller's grand-daughter Musardise (GT's 6th dam).
What's interesting about Musardise is that she was significantly inbred to the 1u family - her sire Le Gosse also being a descendant of the taproot mare Maid Of The Glen - the origin of the highly successful 1u family that includes the multiple Group 1 winning Montjeu, sire of the Walk In The Park.
So Walk In The Park - arguably the strongest current sire - himself is meaningfully inbred to the family.
Like Champ Kiely, GT's pedigree (specifically (a) the strength of his sire Champs Elysees, whose damsire Kahyasi is a particular source of stamina at speed and (b) the fact that his damsire Oscar has sired GN winner Minella Times and near-missers Oscar Time and Any Second Now) is tweakable and I can't get out of my head that, like stablemate Senior Chief a year earlier, he was accelerating over the last furlong of the 26f Ladbrokes GC; clearly wanting a still longer trip.
I've added him at 33/1 e/w to my team as a [tweakable] Strong Place contender.
Apologies that the list if getting longer rather than shorter, though I suspect it will get whittled down again today or at Confirmations, but the team is now:Winning Calibre:
- I Am Maximus - best current price 10/1
- High Class Hero - 66/1
- Champ Kiely - 80/1 (2nd season chaser and a feasible tweak to the model's metrics would see him with the required minimum Winning Calibre rating)
- Gorgeous Tom 33/1 (ditto)
Confirmed Place Potential:
- Top Of The Bill 100/1
- Now Is The Hour 33/1
- Spanish Harlem 66/1
- Final Orders 40/1
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From Oddschecker it appears that those taken out today, other than the ones we knew about (incl Better Days Ahead and Search For Glory) include:
Croke Park
Handstands
Leave Of Absence
Blizzard Of Oz
Pic Roc
If so, that means that Final Orders and either Panic Attack or Marble Sands of the other 3 on 147 are definitely in. Top Of The Bill, also on GNOR147, appears to have lost a lb on collateral form and would be last of the 147s, so needs 2 more above him to be scratched.
Johnnywho (top of the 146s) would need 3 more above him to come out to make the cut.1 -
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GREY DAWNING GENTLEMANSGAME WESTERN FOLD HANDSTANDS RESPLENDENT GREY BETTER DAYS AHEAD CROKE PARK LEAVE OF ABSENCE SEARCH FOR GLORY PIC ROC all scratched.
So all three Final Orders Panic Attack and Marble Sands in the 34.2 -
Thanks @oldblokeoldbloke said:GREY DAWNING GENTLEMANSGAME WESTERN FOLD HANDSTANDS RESPLENDENT GREY BETTER DAYS AHEAD CROKE PARK LEAVE OF ABSENCE SEARCH FOR GLORY PIC ROC all scratched.
So all three Final Orders Panic Attack and Marble Sands in the 34.
Yeap, I missed Western Fold earlier.
So Top Of the Bill needs 1 more, Johnnywho needs 2 more to come out above them.
Twig needs at least 3, possibly 4 above him to be scratched.0 -
Interesting Elliot has took so many out obviously thinks he has a chance of irish title2
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Western Fold, if he goes there, will carry heaviest weight in Irish GN, I'm in two minds if I should put something on him or not. Statistically winners there are max 10-13. I've made small bets on both Better Days and Search for Glory.
But back to GN here, I had a free bet so I've added Nick Rockett
even though he probably stands no chance and not sure he'll run at all. I'm just a bit suspicious. 1 -
Awaiting a refund from B365 for Search For Glory being scratched, which I backed nrnb.0
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Backed Johnnywho today, hopefully he gets in 16/1, as mentioned on here and also see that Corach Rambler also won the Ultima and GN the same year, also it won me some money at Cheltenham so thought might aswell have a dabble. I'll add another 3/4 on the day , probably will have a look at a long shot place acca too based on this thread so always reading, thank you Peanut as ever.0
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B365 just refunded.Covered End said:Awaiting a refund from B365 for Search For Glory being scratched, which I backed nrnb.1 -
cheers @PeanutsMolloy
Winning Calibre:
- I Am Maximus - best current price 10/1
- High Class Hero - 66/1
- Champ Kiely - 80/1 (a feasible tweak to the model's metrics would see him with the required Winning Profile)
Confirmed Place Potential:
- Top Of The Bill 100/1
- Now Is The Hour 33/1
- Spanish Harlem 66/1
- Final Orders 40/1
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New to this....
How have your previous years picks done?1 -
Sorry @Zulu
Thanks for joining the thread - you're most welcome and I'd be happy to answer your question when I've got a bit more time tomorrow - been snowed under analysing post-wind op stats, which I'll also comment about then.
Big news today is scratchings from the Irish GN.
Oscars Brother has come out and is set to run at Aintree (backed into 14~16/1) - the JP monopoly gets still stronger.
A lot of others still with Aintree entries scratched from Fairyhouse today, significantly for my team FINAL ORDERS (who seems now to have Aintree as the definite target) and SPANISH HARLEM:
Those that remain IN for both Fairyhouse and Aintree:- Lecky Watson
- Stellar Story
- Quai De Bourbon
- High Class Hero
- Now Is The Hour
- Yeah Man
- Blaze The Way
We'll see what unfolds.1 -
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Now don't doze off ........ we're going to talk about wind operations - the surgery used, particularly by British trainers, when a racehorse has (or is suspected of having) a breathing problem.
That problem typically occurs when, with the respiratory system is under the extreme stress of a race, the "soft palate" in the throat gets displaced and creates an obstruction. The horse can't get enough oxygen into its lungs to keep racing at full speed. It tends to be a recurring problem that manifests late on in races as (metaphorically or literally) it can't "finish" its race.
The surgery, which comes in different forms, is designed to cut back or surgically tie-back the soft palate.
It can (at least initially, sometimes permanently) be a very successful op - so much so that some trainers, like Paul Nicholls, began to give their horses pre-emptive wind ops. That he doesn't do so now, and more to the point that Irish trainers use the procedure only in extreme cases, is a warning.
Sometimes the procedure doesn't solve the problem but, even when it appears initially successful, over time the problem can recur or, a bigger risk still, the extreme stress of a race can cause the repaired (scarred) area to bleed and that's as bad, worse even, that the original problem because blood in the lungs of a racehorse is a stopper.
So, it's not unusual to see a horse, on its first run after a wind op, run spectacularly well, to a career-best. But the stress of that race weakens the repaired area, and the next time it's under the stress of a race (or perhaps 2 or 3 or 4 races later), the area bleeds and the horse is never able to repeat that best form. Hence, some horses have repeat wind ops - usually to little avail.
On a more mundane level, a wind op can make a horse more prone to infections, particularly upper respiratory tract infections, causing them to run poorly - the run typically blamed on a "dirty scope".
So significant can a wind op be to a horse's performance that, in Jan 2018, the BHA made it compulsory for all trainers of horses running in any race here to notify it of the horse's history of wind ops. So we can trace the performance of runners in GNs since 2018 which had had such operations.
And here are the stats:
48 runners in GNs since 2018 had at least 1 prior wind op (18.25% of all runners in those 7 GNs).
Random distribution (i.e. if the issue were irrelevant to how they ran in the GN) should lead us to expect that 6 of those runners should have made the 35 first 5 finishing positions across those 7 GNs.
In fact, they produced 1 - Santini, a 24L 4th in 2022, who'd had his only wind op more than 2 years prior.
Now it must be said that the majority of wind ops were performed on British-trained horses and, of course, British-trained horses have generally not fared so well as their Irish counterparts in modern GNs.
However, 11 of the 48 runners were fancied enough to have had SPs of 11~25/1 (the average SP for the 35 horses finishing 1~5 was 22.5/1), so while we may not expect them to have performed to "statistical par", the degree of underperformance is marked.
But let's get specific. This year, there are 4 runners that have had prior wind ops, 3 of them this season:
Iroko - op was in Oct 2025. Subsequent form:- 2nd of 5 (2.5L) in 21.5f chase
- won 21f chase, setting new career-high RPR161 (+4)
- 10th 28L in Ultima - scoped dirty afterwards (interestingly)
- 4th of 5 20L 24.5f Grade 2 hurdle
- won Ultima, setting new career-high RPR 155 (+3)
BUT, let's look at those among the 48 previous GN runners that had a same-season op and won on the first outing. There were 3 of them:
Lostintranslation (GN 2022) - op Aug 21- won 21f Grade 2 chase - first win for 2 years
- 5th of 9 27L in King George
- PU in 21f Grade 1 chase
- GN - 264L 15th
- subsequent form: 0PP (retired)
- won 26f Grade 3 chase, setting career-high RPR 146 (+2)
- GN - 120L 12th
- subsequent form: 5P95P (retired)
- won 26f Ladbrokes Gold Cup, setting career-high RPR 157 (+7)
- 8th of 14 in 20f Grade 3 chase
- GN - Fell 21st
- subsequent form: not seen on a course since
They all followed a similar pattern - looking like a new horse on their first outing after surgery but subsequently disappointing and never making the frame again.
Every horse and every situation is different, and Panic Attack shows that there's no foregone conclusion, but just a note of caution for backers of hotly-fancied Iroko and Johnnywho.
PS I wish I'd done these stats prior to backing Kandoo Kid last time (that crap final run at Newbury, his favourite track, should have served as a warning)
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Right, thank you Peanuts. I was suspicious about Iroko since that 'scoped dirty' remark. I won't cash out, since I have him on 25/1, just in case he makes the frame. Don't know what to do with Johnnywho, his op was not long ago and statistically might have that one more great run in him, if no other afterwards. Someone mentioned he might need longer rest between runs to do a good one, but that's a stat from before the op as well, so who knows.1
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Morning @Zulu
To answer your question, some important background info:
1. Each stat that my "model" uses is based upon an outperformance (winning and/or placing) vs the representation of runners that tick that box. They may be stats based on a runner's career record or, increasingly importantly, the composition of its pedigree, going back 9 Generations (that info is available on www.pedigreequery.com)
2. I've used a model every year since the 2006 GN and, every year it evolves. Why? Because it isn't and can't be a crystal ball and there will always be winners and placers that, to some degree, don't meet its existing criteria and set new ones. So every year, I reconcile those "outliers" to a new version of the model. That sounds like driving while looking only in the rear-view mirror but the proof of the pudding is in the eating.
3. The success of the model, for me, is about profit. I use it to identify those runners whose profile are the best fit with former winners and, as I'm an each way punter, those that are the best fit with placers. Typically it identifies an average of 6 runners per GN that fit one or both profiles (though there have been as few as 2 and as many as 9 - there's no law that says there will be any or what a maximum may be but I'll only back as many as are economic, based on the prices).
I back all selections on a weighted e/w basis, such that I'm relatively indifferent as to which scores. My aim is to have at least 2 of them make the frame (which should give me a modest profit) and hopefully 1 of those winning (which should give me a very nice profit). The purpose of the model, which takes zero account of market odds, is to improve my betting %s over the years and it's succeeded in delivering a profit in all but 3 of the 19 years.
4. Of course, one problem (which manifested after 2012) is that the nature of the race can change and a different sort of profile is favoured thereafter. The model experienced this after the major fence and distance changes after the 2012 GN - instead of older horses being favoured, younger or less exposed horses came to dominate as winners. Naturally, the model can take a dip in success as it takes time to adjust to the new criteria for success.
It was extremely successful prior to those changes and, even in the 2013 race which was run at a false pace out of precaution.
But, the impact of the changes was really felt thereafter and hit performance until I introduced a pedigree component for the first time after 2019.
Understandably, given the winners now have much less chase experience on the CVs, that pedigree element has proved a much more reliable guide, though it's still evolving.
The history:
The model has picked the following winners and placed runners among its selections:
2006: Numbersixvalverde (won) and Nil Desperandum (4th) - from 4 selections
2007: McKelvey (close 2nd) - 2 selections
2008: Comply Or Die (won), King Johns Castle (2nd), Slim Pickings (4th)
2009: Mon Mome (won at 100/1) - 6 selections
2010: Don't Push it (won), Big Fella Thanks (4th), Hello Bud (5th), Snowy Morning (6th) - 6 selections
2011: Oscar Time (2nd), State Of Play (4th) - 6 selections
2012: Sunnyhillboy (2nd by a Nose) - 6 selections
2013: Cappa Bleu (2nd), Teaforthree (3rd), Swing Bill (6th) - 4 selections
2014: Chance Du Roy (6th) - 4 selections
2015: Monbeg Dude (3rd) - 7 selections
2016: Vics Canvas (3rd at 80/1, was leading at The Elbow) - 5 selections
2017: Cause Of Causes (2nd), Saint Are (3rd) - 4 selections
2018: Tiger Roll (won), Bless The Wings (3rd), Milansbar (5th) - 9 selections but I only backed 6 (I left off Tiger Roll [jumping concern!] and Bless The Wings [raced 12 days prior] - UGHH!)
2019: Tiger Roll (won), Anibale Fly (5th) - 7 selections but I only backed 6 (I left off Tiger Roll [very short price]!)
2021: Minella Times (won), Farclas (5th) - 9 selections (backed all - I'd got on early, incl Minella Times at 40/1)
2022: Delta Work (3rd), Fiddlerontheroof (5th), Longhouse Poet (6th) - 7 selections
2023: blank [chaotic race owing to protestors on track at start - top 3 selections all departed by misfortune]
2024: I Am Maximus (won), Kittys Light (5th) - 6 selections & Roi Mage (9th), backed for Top 10 Finish
2025: Iroko (4th), Senior Chief (6th) - 6 selections
So there we go.
Not a crystal ball and capable of drawing a blank, particularly given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune frequently witnessed in the race.
But it's served me pretty well down the years.
BTW, all of these selections from 2007 onwards were given on this very forum - you can check them all by searching for the "Grand National" & Year
4 -
Thank you @PeanutsMolloy1
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Hi Peanuts
Thank you for the information on wind ops and soft palate which as a seasoned punter I find fascinating. I have included Johnnywho amongst my ante post bets and although he has not yet made the cut I think I will take a chance as I have him at decent odds.
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You should add @PeanutsMolloy
2026:
1st I AM MAXIMUS (10/1)
2nd HIGH CLASS HERO (66/1)
3rd CHAMP KIELY (80/1)
4th FINAL ORDERS (40/1)
5th SPANISH HARLEM (66/1)
6th NOW IS THE HOUR (33/1)
7TH TOP OF THE BILL (100/1)
Got to happen one year, eh?3 -
Starinnaddick said:
Totally get it, especially if you have him at a nice price. His dam won over 4m and he shows every sign of being better over further.Hi Peanuts
Thank you for the information on wind ops and soft palate which as a seasoned punter I find fascinating. I have included Johnnywho amongst my ante post bets and although he has not yet made the cut I think I will take a chance as I have him at decent odds.
No 2 horses or wind ops are the same.
Best of luck @Starinnaddick
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I continue to dream @Big_BobBig_Bob said:You should add @PeanutsMolloy
2026:
1st I AM MAXIMUS (10/1)
2nd HIGH CLASS HERO (66/1)
3rd CHAMP KIELY (80/1)
4th FINAL ORDERS (40/1)
5th SPANISH HARLEM (66/1)
6th NOW IS THE HOUR (33/1)
7TH TOP OF THE BILL (100/1)
Got to happen one year, eh?
Make Top Of The Bill the star of the show and that really would be a sail off into the sunset moment..... but don't tell Mrs Molloy
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Forgive my ignorance, but does that mean there are 6 place winners plus the winner?Big_Bob said:You should add @PeanutsMolloy
2026:
1st I AM MAXIMUS (10/1)
2nd HIGH CLASS HERO (66/1)
3rd CHAMP KIELY (80/1)
4th FINAL ORDERS (40/1)
5th SPANISH HARLEM (66/1)
6th NOW IS THE HOUR (33/1)
7TH TOP OF THE BILL (100/1)
Got to happen one year, eh?
Does this apply only with certain bookies?1 -
In the days leading up to the GN itself, firms will go generally 6 places, and a couple will go 7, I know Skybet did last year.
Antepost is generally 4 or 5 places.1
