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Grand National 2026
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Trend-followers frequently get their knickers in a twist about Last Time Out or last 2 runs of a GN runner.
They routinely say, "they must have a 1st or 2nd finish in last 2 starts" or "must not have PU'd LTO".
That may be strictly true for the last 8 winners, from One For Arthur.
But 2 factors to bear in mind:- It wasn't so for Aurora's Encore (66/1 winner) in 2013, whose best run that season in 6 outings had been beaten 24L. Why? Because he was a "Spring Ground" horse that simply had not had his ground until Aintree.
- Nor for 33/1 Rule The World, who was a maiden after 13 chases and unplaced and beaten 15L+ in the 2 starts (over 25f and 20f) prior to his 2016 win and who was clearly crying out for a marathon trip (the clue offered in his staying-on close 2nd in the Irish GN a year earlier).
- And it wasn't so for 25/1 Pleasant Company in 2018 when he was beaten by a Head by Tiger Roll and was ahead of him a few yards after the line. He PU'd on his final prep and prior to that had been beaten 35L in his only other outing. No excuses, he just hadn't run well previously but came alive in a GN (his unlucky 9th the previous year was a clue to the savvy).
We're all interested in winners but if you cannot reconcile a particular stat with a runner-up beaten by a Head or 75% of placed horses in the last 2 GNs, you probably shouldn't be too dogmatic about it.
A Spring Ground horse this year that's in search of decent ground that flopped on Soft/Heavy on last 2 runs:
High Class Hero (66/1):- Gd or Yielding in the description Under Rules: 7 runs / 3 wins, 4 places
- Softer than that: 7 runs / 3 wins, 1 place, 3 PUs
- Best Chase RPR set on Good 26 April (at 28.5f, the furthest trip attempted) / Best Hurdle RPR set on Gd/Y 1 May
- Last 2 outings: PU (Soft/Heavy), PU (Heavy)
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"according to the mitochondrial DNA haplogroup" - when do we reckon this was last said on Millwall Life?4
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Captain Cody is getting a few mentions on the Millwall Facebook Grand National group0
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Boom said:"according to the mitochondrial DNA haplogroup" - when do we reckon this was last said on Millwall Life?
That confirms it @BoomRobinKeepsBobbin said:Captain Cody is getting a few mentions on the Millwall Facebook Grand National group
Captain Cody represents the mtDNA L2b1. Together with L2b1a from the same haplogroup:
1988 to 2012: 95 runners, 6 winners and another 11 placing = x2.42 winning outperformance
After fence and distance changes:
2013 to 2025: 38 runners, 0 winners, 0 places = "no one likes them"
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Quite a few Non-runners at Down Royal today owing to "unsuitable ground" - i.e. too quick for the liking of connections.
Perceval Legallois scratched from the big 26f chase I imagine for that reason.
If so, quite a gamble to run Nick Rockett if he's had some issues (minor or otherwise) though he has to run to qualify for Aintree.
EDIT
Respectable piece of work in 3rd by Nick Rockett (6.75L off winner Gerri Colombe) and no doubt Mullins will express satisfaction.
But, with 25 days to go, not anywhere near good enough to tick the requisite box to make my model's top selections.
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With all preps now run (I think) and with the next Forfeit Stage a week away, the final selections for the 2026 GN according to my model, assuming they all head to Aintree and make the cut (I'll do a short write up on those left in that I haven't already covered after the Forfeit Stage):
Prices are best current NRNB 5 places
Winning Calibre:
- I Am Maximus 10/1 – nap [pedigree rating 10]
- High Class Hero 66/1 [ped 7 / 2nd season chaser]
- Better Days Ahead 50/1 – [ped 5 / 2nd seas ch] but may go to Fairyhouse
- Search For Glory 40/1 - [ped 4, borderline for winning] / 2nd seas ch] on Gd or GS only
Confirmed Place Potential:
- Top Of The Bill 100/1 [ped 7]
- Now Is The Hour 33/1 [ped 6]
- Spanish Harlem 50/1 [ped 7+]
- Final Orders 33/1 - [ped 3] on Gd or GS only
Borderline Place Potential: Iroko [4], Panic Attack [3~4], Answer To Kayf [6 / 2nd seas ch] (on Soft or worse only), Twig [4], Marble Sands [4]
Biggest threat to win it: Jagwar [ped 3 / 2nd seas ch]
While my model rates Jagwar's pedigree as place potential, and though he's in the sweet spot as a 2nd season chaser, his CV is short of making my team, principally through lack of either Grade 1 or trip exposure.
But the more I look at Jagwar's pedigree, the clearer it seems that the further he goes the better he'll be - the big question is, is that at 29f or at 34f?
Off only GNOR152 (10.10), officially 5lbs well-in, I think he'll indeed be ridden to take full advantage, unlike the pre-Noble Yeats' days, when 7 year olds were often ridden conservatively and given a sighter for the future (e.g. Saint Are and JP's Cause Of Causes).
What are those pedigree specifics?
- his 3rd dam was a full sister to x2 Grand Steeplechase de Paris winners (29f), one being GC winner The Fellow.
Could be seen as a negative that The Fellow was going well in the 94 GN but patently ran out of gas around 2nd Bechers, taking a tired and tumbling Fall 2 fences later but The Fellow and Jagwar's 3rd dam were sired by Italic, who was also 3rd damsire to GN 4th & 5th Anibale Fly.
But why might he get further than The Fellow or fare better than Anibale Fly?
- Jagwar's damsire Video Rock was damsire to 5 horses to run in a GN, 2 of whom became x2 near-missers (2nd & 3rd Saint Are and 3rd & 2nd Delta Work). And like them, he also has the potent Wild Risk on his damside (unlike Anibale Fly).
But compared to both Delta Work and Saint Are (a) there's more Wild Risk punch in Jagwar's pedigree, being linebred (2 sons and 1 daughter) to Wild Risk and (b) he has Northern Dancer in his top-line, like 12/12 GN winners (from 58% of runners) but unlike DW and St Are.
- Jagwar's damsires and that Wild Risk punch are shared with his half brother Django (by Balko), who won at 29f and was a strongly staying on close 3rd in a 32.5f Hunter Chase on testing ground at Cheltenham 2 years ago.
- their mtDNA A1b has had very few reps in GNs down the years - The Fellow was one (obviously) but none since 2011. 4 runs in total - never made the frame.
HOWEVER, from the same haplogroup, A1a with just 9 runners (1% of fields) from 1988~2012 scored with Seagram, winner in 1991, and Ebony Jane, 4th in 1994 (just 5 days after finishing 3rd in the Irish GN).
And since 2013, from only 3 runners, 7yo Farclas (related to Ebony Jane) was 5th in 2021.A tiny sample but interesting.
As I say, his overall profile isn't strong enough according to my model but he's the 2nd season chaser that I reckon poses the biggest threat from the periphery of its radar screen.
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Sorry if this has been asked, or whether its obvious. But do you factor in Jockey/ Trainer combo in your model, or closer to the time?1
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I presume Answer to Kayf won't make the cut -? When is the next scratching, btw, is it next week sometime?
Edit: found it, 24th1 -
No worries - the model doesn't factor in either.johnnybev1987 said:Sorry if this has been asked, or whether its obvious. But do you factor in Jockey/ Trainer combo in your model, or closer to the time?
Many great jockies that tried a load of times never won a GN (e.g. Richard Johnson) - it took AP an age to do so.
As for yards, of course instinct says favour Mullins' runners but I don't think the stats would stack up.
On stats one should favour any Lucinda Russell runner (she must have best outperformance record in recent times) - e.g. Myretown if he made the cut - but I'm not convinced it's helpful.
But I totally understand as a punter why one would look favourably on a Mullins/Townend runner for example.
The model is designed to strip out subjective views and thus hopefully find value.
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StarryNight said:I presume answer to Kayf won't make the cut -? When is the next scratching, btw, is it next week sometime?
Edit: found it, 24th
He only needs 3 at most to be scratched, maybe only 1.
Gentlemansgame won't qualify unless he somehow conjures up an entry to run in a chase prior to next Tuesday (none at the moment), so there's 1.
The real worry for ATK is the weather forecast - no rain whatsoever forecast for Liverpool from 1 to 11 April by Accuweather at the moment.
According to my records, last year the horse ranked 52 at this point (after 1st Forfeit Stage) was the last to get in (OR145). So 18 above him came out by declarations.
If that were repeated this year that would make the cut in the 144s.
The lowest OR to run in 2024 was 146. We had 2 withdrawals after Decs and, daftly, no Reserves that year, so only 32 ran.
This year there will be 6 Reserves I think - talk about from one extreme to another!
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84 entries for the Irish GN.
More than for Aintree and they include almost all the Irish entries for Aintree (even I Am Maximus) and, from Jonjo’s yard, Johnnywho.
Spanish Harlem is owned by a Big Cheese at sponsors Randox and they presumably really want him to take his chance at Aintree but you couldn’t blame them if they send him to Fairyhouse with 5lbs lower mark.
We’ll see.
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Croke Park, Firefox, Three Card Brag and, bizarrely, Panic Attack given entries for the 21f Topham on 10 April.1
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4 we already know are scratched ahead of next week's Forfeit Stage:
Resplendent Grey, Intense Raffles, Stolen Silver and Myretown.
Answer To Kayf may already be in or may need 2 more on 150+ to defect.
Now Is The Hour needs 3 more on 149+ to come out
Top Of The Bill and Final Orders need 4~7 on 147+ to do so.
The fancied Johnnywho needs 8 more as he's top of those on 146.
Search For Glory needs 12~13 more on 145+1 -
These are the discrepancies between marks off which Irish runners would run at Fairyhouse vs Aintree:
Those better off in the handicap at Fairyhouse:
Final Orders 138 v 147 (-9) - bizarre, given his XC win after the Aintree GN weights were framed
Gerri Colombe 160 v 166 (-6)
Blaze The Way 140 v 146 (-6)
Spanish Harlem 154 v 159 (-5)
Will Do 132 v 137 (-5) - won't get in at Aintree anyway
Grangeclare West 163 v 166 (-3)
Hogh Class Hero 150 v 153 (-3)
Captain Cody 149 v 152 (-3)
Jordans 147 v 150 (-3)
Lecky Watson 155 v 158 (-3)
Weveallbeencaught 135 v 137 (-2) - won't get in at Aintree anyway
I Am Maximus 167 v 168 (-1)
Western Fold 156 v 157 (-1)
Those better off at Aintree:
Johnnywho 151 v 146 (+5)
Stellar Story 155 v 153 (+2)
Better Days Ahead 154 vs 153 (+1)
Quai De Bourbon 152 v 151 (+1)
Just looking in detail at the Fairyhouse entries, those Irish runners entered for Aintree but NOT given Fairyhouse entries include:
Answer To Kayf
Champ Kiely
Favori De Champdou
Gorgeous Tom
Montys Star
Nick Rockett
Perceval Legallois
Pied Piper
Search For Glory
Spillanes Tower
The Short Go
Three Card Brag (has a Topham entry)0 -
Isn't Monty's Star a bit of a mud horse as well?PeanutsMolloy said:The real worry for ATK is the weather forecast - no rain whatsoever forecast for Liverpool from 1 to 11 April by Accuweather at the moment.
It's very interesting how the Irish GN will play out and who will leave, can't wait!1 -
Am i they only one who finds these other Grand Nationals a nuisance? Does anyone really care about the Irish or Scottish.0
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I don't agree. The weights allocated and then the result can be very informative.RobinKeepsBobbin said:Am i they only one who finds these other Grand Nationals a nuisance? Does anyone really care about the Irish or Scottish.2 -
This whole thread is intriguing. Peanuts aiming to make a profit by getting horses in the frame using his methods and hopefully finding the winner.
Some people are waiting to see which horses are chosen by the top jocks always assuming they have a choice.
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Rain would be a + for I Am Maximus as well of course.StarryNight said:
Isn't Monty's Star a bit of a mud horse as well?PeanutsMolloy said:The real worry for ATK is the weather forecast - no rain whatsoever forecast for Liverpool from 1 to 11 April by Accuweather at the moment.
It's very interesting how the Irish GN will play out and who will leave, can't wait!
A real dilemma for Cromwell. At weights-framing day he was + for Aintree about Flooring Porter (subsequently scratched), Perceval (scratched from the Down Royal chase late so presumably a doubt) and Final Orders (who wants as sound a surface as possible) and sounded like he was leaning more to Fairyhouse for Now Is The Hour on concerns about quick ground.
But NITH has patently shown he handles a decent surface and Final Orders will run off 9lb higher if he heads to Aintree.
Personally I hope NITH and FO both run at Aintree - they’ll both love the ground if the weather’s fine.1 -
Looks like Grey Dawning may be scratched.0
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Accuweather forecast for Liverpool remains changeable to 31 March but DRY from 1st April through the entire GN meeting.
Drying weather continuing in Dublin through to the Irish GN.
Hmm.
I Am Maximus will still be in my team but, if that forecast proves accurate, he may not be my nap.
Where I can do it cost-free, particularly courtesy of Betfair Sportsbook and SkyBet, I'm doing a lot of switching from antepost to NRNB with Bet365 and WH.0 -
Bought my tickets in the Queen Mother stand yesterday!
Not been to the horses much over the years but it's my 50th this year so I'm aiming to go to quite a few new (for me) sporting events across the year, from the iconic (like this, Henley, Wimbledon), to the English bizarre (think Shrovetide football, Cheese rolling and the world conker championships).
The good thing with the National of course is that I am guaranteed to win all my expenditure back and ultimately have a free weekend following your tips @PeanutsMolloy 😉
(Not factored into the budget).
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What a great idea. Have a brilliant time.Athletico Charlton said:Bought my tickets in the Queen Mother stand yesterday!
Not been to the horses much over the years but it's my 50th this year so I'm aiming to go to quite a few new (for me) sporting events across the year, from the iconic (like this, Henley, Wimbledon), to the English bizarre (think Shrovetide football, Cheese rolling and the world conker championships).
The good thing with the National of course is that I am guaranteed to win all my expenditure back and ultimately have a free weekend following your tips @PeanutsMolloy 😉
(Not factored into the budget).
PS many thanks for the absolution
this is one funky year for the model 0 -
Without an entry prior to Tuesday's deadline, Gentlemansgame will not qualify to run on 11 April.
So one more out at next Tuesday's Forfeit Stage.
I make it that all those on 150 (including Answer To Kayf) are definitely in.
Now Is The Hour on 149 now needs 1 more to come out above him.0 -
Looks like Elliott will send both Better Days Ahead and Search For Glory to Fairyhouse on Easter Monday.
I think the rules now preclude them running 5 days later at Aintree if they run in the Irish GN.
There will never be another Ebony Jane!
Expected my model's fancies to get whittled down and 6 is the average but it's a particular shame about Better Days Ahead - ticked a lot of boxes for Aintree and that's 2 of the original 4 Winning Calibre selections to go.
At least the 2 remaining (Max and HCH) are complementary from a going perspective, which stills look likely to be classic Aintree "Good to Soft", despite some rain now forecast early in GN week.
The target remains uncertain for Final Orders.
“It’s very much a possibility he could run in the Grand National,” according to Cromwell, in which he's 10lbs well-in vs his new BHA mark, but principally because of the Irish Handicapping system not taking account of XC races he'd be 19lbs well-in at Fairyhouse.
Likely the ground will be a key factor for the good-ground lover.
Fingers crossed it pisses down in Dublin over Easter.
Stablemate Now Is The Hour also has entries for both - no further indication as yet (so far as I'm aware) as to which will be his destination.
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Will be 9 next year, still a chance.PeanutsMolloy said:Expected my model's fancies to get whittled down and 6 is the average but it's a particular shame about Better Days Ahead - ticked a lot of boxes for Aintree and that's 2 of the original 4 Winning Calibre selections to go.0 -
Indeed, but more exposed.StarryNight said:
Will be 9 next year, still a chance.PeanutsMolloy said:Expected my model's fancies to get whittled down and 6 is the average but it's a particular shame about Better Days Ahead - ticked a lot of boxes for Aintree and that's 2 of the original 4 Winning Calibre selections to go.1 -
Very happy with the place potential for Top Of The Bill, Spanish Harlem and (hopefully one or both of) Final Orders and Now Is The Hour.
But, down to only 2 Winning Calibre members of the team (Max and High Class Hero), I am inclined to add a Win-saver.
Last year I opted for Intense Raffles - totally unfancied by my model by virtue of its pedigree but I went for the best CV stats in the race. He flopped.
This year, on CV stats alone Johhnywho or Favori De Champdou could be the pick but, though Johnnywho’s dam was a 4m winner and FDC is related to Delta Work, neither’s pedigree is any stronger than that of Intense Raffles.
I'm going to choose from a short list of those on the periphery of my model's radar screen that can handle Aintree GS and whose profiles are just short of making my team by virtue of a single pedigree notch and/or CV component.
I've already highlighted Jagwar, and he may well be the choice, but I’ll double back and “tweak-test” other candidates:- Spillanes Tower 33/1 - strong sire and damsires but is German female family good enough? GS might be a bit lively.
- Champ Kiely 80/1 - from family of Corach Rambler, Any Second Now and Gilgamboa - but incongruous topline for a GN winner
- Gorgeous Tom 33/1 - from family of Cahervillahow (2nd in void GN), Cappa Bleu, Double Seven, Walk In The Mill - overall pedigree strength a little light and still a maiden at 3m+
- Panic Attack 25/1 - from family of GN winners Grittar and Maori Venture but topline and no WR are incongruous for a GN winner
A bit more foraging and mulling to do.
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Peanuts - What are the chances of Twig getting a run? I don't see him winning but he must have a good chance of finishing and therefore maybe worth an each way bet if 6-7 places are offered.1
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I agree about Twig, especially 6th or 7th type territory.RobinKeepsBobbin said:Peanuts - What are the chances of Twig getting a run? I don't see him winning but he must have a good chance of finishing and therefore maybe worth an each way bet if 6-7 places are offered.
Nearer the race Bet365 have typically offered Top 8 or Top 10 Finish and I'll be taking a look at those for the likes of him and Marble Sands (he'd be half his 100/1 odds if he weren't from a small yard in Gloucestershire - I'll do a little write up on him because he's a dark horse for a strong run and Top 8~10 finish at a probably nice price).
Twig's on 146 with 3 others.
Johnnywho will be top of them, as he got a big hike for his Ultima win.
Twig, Leave Of Absence and Blaze The Way are unchanged I think so, if it came to it, they would be ranked by ballot.
If we now take out Better Days Ahead and the others above 146 that we know won't run, he needs at least 6 and at most 8 more on 146 and above to come out to make the cut.
I can imagine a couple (Spillanes Tower and L'Homme Presse most obviously) coming out because of the likely quickish ground.
Perceval Legallois presumably had a niggle last Tuesday when he was a Non-Runner.
Firefox could have an alternative target and Croke Park is entered for the Topham.
Given JP's firepower in the race, and as he's only 10/1 for Fairyhouse, maybe Oscars Brother will head there.
Mullins has 8 on 151+. Will they all run and will Cromwell run both Final Orders and Now Is The Hour?
In short, I'd definitely bet NRNB at this stage but he'll probably just squeeze in, I would guess.
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