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Grand National 2026
Comments
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@Peanuts, what's your opinion on Quai de Bourbon? I don't see him discussed much. Third recently (with Townend), before that this and last year PU/PU/3rd/BD/UR. Only 7yo so maybe too early. Could he get into the frame?1
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StarryNight said:@Peanuts, what's your opinion on Quai de Bourbon? I don't see him discussed much. Third recently (with Townend), before that this and last year PU/PU/3rd/BD/UR. Only 7yo so maybe too early. Could he get into the frame?
I like Quai De Bourbon and had him as an early antepost but when I put the full slide rule over the entries, he was just missing marginally on a few of the model's boxes and I cashed out.
I can definitely see him making the places after his 3rd in the Irish behind a winner that was patently thrown in. Beaten 7L, giving HC 7lbs, he'll be getting 15lbs from him at Aintree.
But I wonder if he and/or High Class Hero and/or Lecky Watson are candidates for Mullins to send to Fairyhouse instead. He's only 16/1 for the Irish GN, though that's patently not a decider.
Pedigree-wise his sire is a new kid on the block, though has some positive features, including being sired by a grand-son of Sadlers Wells and linebred to Wild Risk.
Interestingly, QDB and his sire are from the same Family 4n (QDB's 9th Dam was Ivanhowe's 8th Dam, Yenna by the famous French stayer Ksar).
That is rare but not unique and, as it happens, Walk In The Mill (GN4th) was inbred to Family 1u (his 7th Dam was his sire's 6th dam).
There is a breeding theory that promotes such inbreeding to a strong mare and it didn't do WITM any harm.
Though only distantly related (9th Gen), his family also produced Tanganyika, close 2nd in the 34f Midlands National.
Finally, QDB's damsire Muhtathir has sired a winner over 4m and damsired a Prix Du Cadran (20f) winner.
I expect him to run a big race but my model prefers others.
Maybe I'll be having to reconcile him as the outlier winner come 12 April
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All change.
The weather forecast has done a 180 and it now looks like rainfall and overcast conditions pretty much daily up to 10th April - not necessarily anything torrential but enough to stop the track drying out too much.
Best guess is still GS (providing no appreciable rain on race-day) but maybe on slow side of GS.
If the going were to approach Soft, the positives, negatives, neutrals for my model's top-rated profiles are likely to be:
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I Am Maximus
Spanish Harlem
Answer To Kayf
?Now Is The Hour
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Final Orders
Top Of The Bill
High Class Hero
?Gorgeous Tom
neutral
Champ Kiely
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Is Gerri Colombe a likely non runner now as it has taken a big walk in the market?
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gah, is Stellar Story going to be a problem now. I've cashed out...PeanutsMolloy said:All change.
The weather forecast has done a 180 and it now looks like rainfall and overcast conditions pretty much daily up to 10th April - not necessarily anything torrential but enough to stop the track drying out too much.
Best guess is still GS (providing no appreciable rain on race-day) but maybe on slow side of GS.
If the going were to approach Soft, the positives, negatives, neutrals for my model's top-rated profiles are likely to be:
+
I Am Maximus
Spanish Harlem
Answer To Kayf
?Now Is The Hour
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Final Orders
Top Of The Bill
High Class Hero
?Gorgeous Tom
neutral
Champ Kiely0 -
Only ran once during 2025 due to a stifle injury. Recent winner in Ireland beating Nick Rockett although the latter probably needed the run.Starinnaddick said:Is Gerri Colombe a likely non runner now as it has taken a big walk in the market?0 -
There really are some wild prices around for some serious horses.
God knows what the weather will deliver but if it were to come up Soft, current 80/1 shot Mr Vango (close 2nd in the Becher so handles the fences and winner of the 34f Midlands National so gets the trip given his ground) would/should go off <20/1 in my opinion.
I've taken a trading position at >100 on Betfair just as a weather hedge.
80/1 is still available for Champ Kiely - f***ing ridiculous. He'll handle any ground.
They have the same sire, Ocovango.
His progeny have run in 9 chases of 31f+, winning 3 of them (33%).
From 12 runners at 31f+, 5 have won or been placed (42%).
What's wrong with this picture?1 -
Haven't heard anything about him.Starinnaddick said:Is Gerri Colombe a likely non runner now as it has taken a big walk in the market?
It's a very weird market this year.0 -
After his win in Ireland he was about 25/1 and now he is about 80/1 on Betfair.PeanutsMolloy said:
Haven't heard anything about him.Starinnaddick said:Is Gerri Colombe a likely non runner now as it has taken a big walk in the market?
It's a very weird market this year.0 -
Starinnaddick said:
After his win in Ireland he was about 25/1 and now he is about 80/1 on Betfair.PeanutsMolloy said:
Haven't heard anything about him.Starinnaddick said:Is Gerri Colombe a likely non runner now as it has taken a big walk in the market?
It's a very weird market this year.
The big bookies still have him at 20~33/1 - I know Betfair can smell an issue first so not saying there isn't one.
Initially, that Down Royal win looked a useful confirmation of the promising 2nd in the Bobbyjo.
But a couple of days later it was accorded a stunningly poor RPR123.
The problem was the 5L proximity of a 14yo rated 28lbs lower but giving him 3lbs that day.
Betfair can get it wrong but also seems a very illiquid market this year, even 2 weeks before the big day.
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Yeah, I've added him as well, also Spillanes Tower in case it gets really muddy, We'll see.PeanutsMolloy said:There really are some wild prices around for some serious horses.
God knows what the weather will deliver but if it were to come up Soft, current 80/1 shot Mr Vango (close 2nd in the Becher so handles the fences and winner of the 34f Midlands National so gets the trip given his ground) would/should go off <20/1 in my opinion.
I've taken a trading position at >100 on Betfair just as a weather hedge.
80/1 is still available for Champ Kiely - f***ing ridiculous. He'll handle any ground.
They have the same sire, Ocovango.
His progeny have run in 9 chases of 31f+, winning 3 of them (33%).
From 12 runners at 31f+, 5 have won or been placed (42%).
What's wrong with this picture?1 -
We seem to have cleaned out the 100+s between usStarryNight said:
Yeah, I've added him as well, also Spillanes Tower in case it gets really muddy, We'll see.PeanutsMolloy said:There really are some wild prices around for some serious horses.
God knows what the weather will deliver but if it were to come up Soft, current 80/1 shot Mr Vango (close 2nd in the Becher so handles the fences and winner of the 34f Midlands National so gets the trip given his ground) would/should go off <20/1 in my opinion.
I've taken a trading position at >100 on Betfair just as a weather hedge.
80/1 is still available for Champ Kiely - f***ing ridiculous. He'll handle any ground.
They have the same sire, Ocovango.
His progeny have run in 9 chases of 31f+, winning 3 of them (33%).
From 12 runners at 31f+, 5 have won or been placed (42%).
What's wrong with this picture?
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I didn't put that much on Mr Vango
Maybe just tipped the scales.
I think I'll cash out Iroko, even though on a good price. I don't believe he'll go any close, might not finish the race at all, or even will be scratched any second now. Maybe if there was another race after the issues in the last one just to see what he's like, but as is it's too risky.1 -
I see the Mr Vango position as a cheap insurance policy - if it pisses down, it will definitely make a nice profit in closing it out or I might just keep it as a cheap win-saver. If I weren't using a model (that doesn't quite rate him high enough), or if we were pre-2013, he'd have exactly the CV I'd back on Soft ground.StarryNight said:I didn't put that much on Mr Vango
Maybe just tipped the scales.
I think I'll cash out Iroko, even though on a good price. I don't believe he'll go any close, might not finish the race at all, or even will be scratched any second now. Maybe if there was another race after the issues in the last one just to see what he's like, but as is it's too risky.
Re Iroko, don't end up kicking yourself - especially cos of what some wally said on a forum
BTW, seventowers on the other place is certainly not a wally - his comment about Walk In The Park's over 4m (vis a vis Spillanes) isn't something I'd be worried about (not least cos ST hasn't made my team!) but he knows what he's talking about when it comes to stallions and broodmare sires. By far the best contributor to that forum IMO.1 -
I saw that and killed the bet already
My betting style is a bit wild when it comes to additions. I have my set I don't touch but the rest come and go constantly!1 -
me too - this is a tricky one weather-wise.StarryNight said:I saw that and killed the bet already
My betting style is a bit wild when it comes to additions. I have my set I don't touch but the rest come and go constantly!
I was in and out of Kittys Light 2 years ago as the forecast changed but thankfully was in for the race, despite it being far softer than he wanted - paid out in 5th.
Same this year with Answer To Kayf - back in e/w again when he hit 80s and it didn't take much for that to disappear and he's now best price 66, generally 50.
I want to shed 1 or 2 beforehand to maintain a decent returns' profile but unless the forecast reverts to dry and sunny through the meeting, we may not know for sure how it will ride until day itself, maybe not till race-time even.
Pain in the derriere.1 -
High Class Hero's taken a massive walk on Betfair: 140 offered.
If it means he's not running, at least it would guarantee Top Of The Bill a run.1 -
Would he do ok at Fairyhouse? It might be a rather good weather, as showing today.0
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As a 2nd season chaser at Aintree, he'd be one of the unexposed carrying <11.00StarryNight said:Would he do ok at Fairyhouse? It will be rather good weather, as showing today.
He is a known quantity at 28f and, at Fairyhouse, the competition is from unexposed 1st season chasers carrying a lot less than HCH, who'll shoulder c 11.07, unless a claimer is on board.
So I would be less keen on him at Fairyhouse than I am for Aintree.
Same goes for Better Days Ahead and Quai De Bourbon if he runs there.
Seems to me, unless a trainer thinks they won't get 4.25m, in which case why enter them, or unless the ground is against, they'd have all been relatively better off at Aintree.
But then there's an Irish Trainers' Title on the line and I guess Mullins figures he's got plenty of ammo for Aintree already.
Holloway Queen for me at Fairyhouse, if she runs.1 -
Thank you, I don't bet there much as I can't ever guess what's going to win.
HCH down to 126 with Betfair now, people took that 140 🙃
edit: I should have taken that 140, he's down to 66 again!1 -
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back at 130 offered.StarryNight said:Thank you, I don't bet there much as I can't ever guess what's going to win.
HCH down to 126 with Betfair now, people took that 140 🙃
edit: I should have taken that 140, he's down to 66 again!
you're hot or you're not on Betfair.1 -
Forecast rainfall for Liverpool for the next 12 days+ diminishing, I've traded out of my Mr Vango win bet for a small turn. Admirable fellow though he is, he must have it Soft to have a chance of figuring at the business end.
Looks nailed on to be some form of GS.0 -
https://x.com/fxmc1957/status/2038530833246544219?s=58
The last time, 52 years ago, that the top weight won the GN. The great Rummy, with 12.00, winning it for the 2nd of an unprecedented 3 times.
Hard to imagine now that the race was struggling financially (look how few trackside spectators) and had it not been for sponsors from 1975 News Of The World, The Sun and Seagram, Aintree and the race may not have survived.
History beckons Max!
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I have had a decent bet at good odds I Am Maximus so I hope he figures. I have been looking at Stellar Story although I realise he doesn't qualify under your method. He has a big advantage at the weights with his recent rivals but I have my doubts whether he will stay the distance. I know it is a matter of opinion but do you think he will stay?1
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Starinnaddick said:I have had a decent bet at good odds I Am Maximus so I hope he figures. I have been looking at Stellar Story although I realise he doesn't qualify under your method. He has a big advantage at the weights with his recent rivals but I have my doubts whether he will stay the distance. I know it is a matter of opinion but do you think he will stay?
Happy to give you my musings @Starinnaddick
On the plus side a 2nd season chaser unexposed beyond 26f but ran to a new best RPR160 (+6) in the Bobbyjo when 3rd, giving weight to Grangeclare West - lb for a Length, he'll be 6lbs "well-in" vs Grangeclare West (who could yet be Paul Townend's choice of ride, which speaks well of his view of that Bobbyjo Chase) on 11th.
That RPR160 vs his GNOR153 is obviously a nice premium vs many other rivals.
I can only give you my view of his pedigree as to its "fit" with modern GN winners, according to my metrics:
Aspects of his damside, specifically his first 3 damsires, are very promising from a stamina perspective:- Damsire Bob Back's broodmares' offspring have run 52 times at 31f+, winning 4 and winning or placing 16 (31%) - a strong frame-making strike rate for the largish sample size. From 9 runs in the GN, they include Many Clouds, Aint That A Shame (6th) and Regal Encore (7th). More worryingly they also include Shantou Flyer (2 GN runs, 2 PUs) with whom he shares his sire Shantou (more about Shantou below)
- DS2 Moscow Society was damsire of Seabass (GN 3rd in 2012) and Longhouse Poet (6th)
- DS3 Menelek sired 2 GN winners, Rag Trade and Hallo Dandy, was DS2 of Oscar Time and DS3 of Any Second Now
However, the reasons my model doesn't fancy him are:- 12/12 GN winners had Wild Risk on their damside or the sire's damside (64% of runners). He has no Wild Risk anywhere in his pedigree.
- He has absolutely zero "linebreeding" (i.e. inbreeding to a key ancestor) features of a strong modern GN pedigree - no GN placer 1~4 since 2012 was so bereft
- But the main issue is his sire Shantou:
- Shantou is not a descendant of Northern Dancer. The sires of 12/12 GN winners were (58% of runners)
- Shantou's record as sire of staying chasers is modest and specifically in the GN is poor:
- 62 runners at 31f+ have produced just 2 winners and 11 winners or placers (17.7%)
- His progeny's record in the GN: UPU8PP0UPFU0PPPP - 16 runs, 50% PU, only 3 completing, nearest Morning Assembly 8th in 2016 (62L).
My model ain't a crystal ball and I'm no Mystic Molloy.
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Thank you PN1
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So what about Grangeclare, PN? Not good enough?
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Serious contender, no doubt.StarryNight said:So what about Grangeclare, PN? Not good enough?
I've thought since the Bobbyjo there's a chance Townend will choose to ride him and seems like that's still a possibility. Could go off fav if he does, though wouldn't change my view about him or Max.
He was the outlier frame-maker (near-misser in fact) for the model last year but, in reconciling him to the "max", it still left him a Pedigree score of 4, which is the minimum calibre for winning (borderline really as only Pineau De Re's pedigree was of that rating and he was perhaps a slightly fortunate winner, given the low quality of the race and Balthazar King being taken wide throughout).
So on pedigree terms he could be a winner, though the model reckons there are 7 others (still in) with better pedigree "fits" with modern winners.
Considering CVs, it's 22 years since a runner that had previously placed (but not won) won a GN. Indeed, excluding Tiger Roll, it's 17 years since any former GN runner won it - though Pleasant Company (by the same sire as GW - Presenting) cam mighty close in 2018.
Overlaying CVs relegates 4 of my runners with superior pedigrees to GW to place contenders only (Top Of The Bill, Spanish Harlem, Now Is The Hour and Answer To Kayf [and then only on Soft]).
He too is a definite frame-making calibre but at 12/1 I'd need his CV to confirm Winning Calibre.
For me, as he's exposed now (and, as noted, the race favours unexposed debutants as winners), he at least needed to set a new career-best RPR in the Bobbyjo to tick the CV box. He failed, though only by 2lbs to do so.
When Resplendent Grey, Better Days Ahead and Search For Glory were scratched, it left me with just Max and High Class Hero as confirmed Winning Calibre and I stress-tested a number of others that were peripheral to see if any might be easily-tweakable to Winning Calibre.
He was one of them but the most tweakable were the 2nd season chasers Champ Kiely and Gorgeous Tom, which I've added to Max and HCH. But if I hadn't been able (credibly in my judgement) to get to 4 Winning Calibre bets, it would most likely be a toss up between GW and Jagwar for a win-saver.
So, I think he's a huge threat, with or without Townend on board.
Sorry for the rambley reply.
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Thank you, good to be informed! I have him but I'd rather he didn't make the frame as small returns only. But then again I wish him well.1
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Weather forecasts flip flopping around and, once again, it seems that, after continuing dryish spell, there's a chance of meaningful rainfall during the GN meeting.
Watering could be a tricky call, as it was at Cheltenham.
Back in with my trading position with Mr Vango at 100/1 in the event of Soft ground.1
