Yes it’s that time of year again.
Running the slide rule over the top 50 in the weights (after yesterday’s forfeit stage) and looking for the best statistical fit with the key characteristics (age, weight, experience, recent form etc but ignoring relative handicap marks, which count for diddly-squat in this 4.5 mile slog) of the winners and closely placed horses in all of the GNs run since 1988 (excluding the loony race of 2001 when only 4 finished, 2 of which had been remounted), I reckon that the winner of the 2009 Grand National should be one of:
Brooklyn Brownie (50/1 with some bookies but must have good ground)
Character Building
Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan Blade
Mon Mome (only if going is soft or softer)
There are place possibilities for Cornish Sett, providing he has his blinkers on.
So, no Irish winner this year and still no joy for Paul Nicholls or Tony McCoy.
You could (and no doubt will) pick holes in any of these selections. I would do myself (Character Building and Kilbeggan Blade are both disconcertingly quirky and Mon Mome's been disappointing in last couple of runs) but this model identified Numbersixvalverde and Nil Desperandum (winner and 4th in 2006), McKelvey (2nd by a short head in 2007) and last year scored with Comply Or Die (winner), King Johns Castle (2nd) and Slim Pickings (4th) from 5 selections, so I'll stick with it.
It will probably crash and burn now of course.
Good luck.
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Comments
If not, if they have to shoot the horse, shoot the jockey too !!
I'm on Rambling Minster e/w and expecting a good run for my money
Offshore Account (currently available at 50/1) is another one who should prove good value
Parsons Legacy - 33-1
Character Builidng - 14-1
King Johns Castle - 20-1
Roll Along - 25-1
On the day of Saints Charlton.
Roll Along's a very interesting selection and could run a big race if he takes to the fences, though the weight increase on Tuesday has put him on 11st 4lbs (a big ask). Very talented but a bit highly strung. Ran a bizarre race in Gold Cup (looked like he was likely to be pulled up first circuit whe held up but really started to enjoy himself when brought through the field and looked a real contender for a while). Same owner won with Corbierre.
Though Phil Smith (the English handicapper) has probably now learnt to take that form with a massive pinch of salt.
The Racing Post is now saying that top-weight Snoopy Loopy is confirmed a non-runner which means that the weights will go up again by at least 2lb. If Paul Nicholls pulls out Nozic aswell, as he has indicated he may well do, that will add another 1lb on top of that.
Only 2 of the last 20 winners have carried 11st or more and the most was 11st 1lb.
My Will, theoretically “well-in” and current favourite, will now carry at least 11st 3lbs and current third favourite Black Apalachi will now be on at least 11st 4lbs. Tall order for either.
Roll Along said to be very unlikely to run by Carl Llewellyn.
King Johns Castle now ruled out with injury.
Not a chance.
Far too dangerous.Should be running in one of the other races during the 3 days.
2 of my draft choices out! Think i'm going to wait for the final 40 or so.
Denman can't now run in the National as it was withdrawn at the last declaration stage. It is entered in the Totesport Bowl at Aintree and Paul Nicholls is keen to run it in that.
Solid support for War Of Attrition in the last week.
It's got the class to win but will probably have to hump 11st 9lb round and no horse since Red Rum in 1974 has managed to do that.
Still a good each way bet though at 33's.
Definitely one for the purists as opposed to the lottery that is the National....
If,as has been reported,Denman has improved even more since his run at cheltenham then it will be no contest.
Reckon he would have won the gold cup if it had been 2/3 weeks later.
Having been at Cheltenham, and backed Denman, disagree that he might've won it 2/3 weeks later. . .
As at 4.45pm Tuesday 24th March: Good (Good to Soft in places)
Showery weather forecast until this coming Sunday.
Sorry to report that Chatacter Building is out of the National.
Parsons Legacy it is...
Peanuts on the other hand are all still looking quite tasty - Rambo and Brooklyn in particular IMO
As at 12pm Saturday 28th March: Good to Soft (Good in places) on the Grand National Course - goingstick reading of 6.3 (taken on Friday) so definitely some cut in the ground at the moment but they didn't get the rain they had expected on Friday night.
Forecast is for possibility of drizzle only off and on until Wednesday and warming up as the week goes on. Racing Post reports that they may water if it dries out too quickly.
Shame about Character Building. Will be very interesting to see who's left in after Monday's confirmation stage and how much the weights go up by.
A few defections at the top of the order means that the weights go up 3lbs and Cloudy Lane carries top weight of 11-10.
No horse since Corbiere in 1983 has shouldered anything more than 11-01 to victory and, excluding Red Rum, no horse has carried any more than 11-5 to victory since 1957.
The rise in weights puts My Will (current market fav) on 11-04 and Comply Or Die on 11-06 (11lbs more than when winning last year).
The weight rise hasn’t caused any major change to results of my version of a statistical best-fit analysis, which indicates that the winner should be one of:
Rambling Minster 10-09 (will handle any ground)
Brooklyn Brownie 10-06 (would prefer decent ground) - and he's ridden by a Kinsella! Can't be bad.
Kilbeggan Blade 10-07 (chances improved on soft ground)
Mon Mome 11-00 (must have soft ground - pretty unlikely according to forecast)
Place possibilities for:
Cornish Sett 10-10 (providing he wears his blinkers)
Maljimar 10-04 (needs only 1 to come out [after War of Attrition being scratched late today] before Saturday morning to get in the line-up)
Good luck.
GOING UPDATE FOR THE NATIONAL COURSE:
at 5.45pm Monday 30th March: Good (Good to Soft in places)
Forecast is dry and warming up through the week
They'll start watering the National Course tomorrow to keep the ground safe.