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Grand National 2009

Yes it’s that time of year again.

Running the slide rule over the top 50 in the weights (after yesterday’s forfeit stage) and looking for the best statistical fit with the key characteristics (age, weight, experience, recent form etc but ignoring relative handicap marks, which count for diddly-squat in this 4.5 mile slog) of the winners and closely placed horses in all of the GNs run since 1988 (excluding the loony race of 2001 when only 4 finished, 2 of which had been remounted), I reckon that the winner of the 2009 Grand National should be one of:

Brooklyn Brownie (50/1 with some bookies but must have good ground)
Character Building
Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan Blade
Mon Mome (only if going is soft or softer)

There are place possibilities for Cornish Sett, providing he has his blinkers on.

So, no Irish winner this year and still no joy for Paul Nicholls or Tony McCoy.

You could (and no doubt will) pick holes in any of these selections. I would do myself (Character Building and Kilbeggan Blade are both disconcertingly quirky and Mon Mome's been disappointing in last couple of runs) but this model identified Numbersixvalverde and Nil Desperandum (winner and 4th in 2006), McKelvey (2nd by a short head in 2007) and last year scored with Comply Or Die (winner), King Johns Castle (2nd) and Slim Pickings (4th) from 5 selections, so I'll stick with it.

It will probably crash and burn now of course.

Good luck.
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Comments

  • Ban the bloody thing ;

    If not, if they have to shoot the horse, shoot the jockey too !!
  • Will have a look now the field has been narrowed down, as a keen Racing fan the National is not something i spend too much time looking into. Had the winner last year for the first time in a very long time. Normally aim for 3 choices, 1 win and two ew.
  • A good selection, Peanuts

    I'm on Rambling Minster e/w and expecting a good run for my money

    Offshore Account (currently available at 50/1) is another one who should prove good value
  • When is it?
  • At first glance a rough 4 would be:

    Parsons Legacy - 33-1
    Character Builidng - 14-1
    King Johns Castle - 20-1
    Roll Along - 25-1
  • [cite]Posted By: Henry Irving[/cite]When is it?


    On the day of Saints Charlton.
  • [cite]Posted By: L Block JT[/cite]At first glance a rough 4 would be:

    Parsons Legacy - 33-1
    Character Builidng - 14-1
    King Johns Castle - 20-1
    Roll Along - 25-1

    Roll Along's a very interesting selection and could run a big race if he takes to the fences, though the weight increase on Tuesday has put him on 11st 4lbs (a big ask). Very talented but a bit highly strung. Ran a bizarre race in Gold Cup (looked like he was likely to be pulled up first circuit whe held up but really started to enjoy himself when brought through the field and looked a real contender for a while). Same owner won with Corbierre.
  • Haven't got time to look through now (too busy looking at today's stuff) but the tried and tested Irish route of running a horse over hurdles (and over an inadequate trip) to get the animal spot on is always worth bearing in mind.

    Though Phil Smith (the English handicapper) has probably now learnt to take that form with a massive pinch of salt.
  • edited March 2009
    WEIGHTS UPDATE:

    The Racing Post is now saying that top-weight Snoopy Loopy is confirmed a non-runner which means that the weights will go up again by at least 2lb. If Paul Nicholls pulls out Nozic aswell, as he has indicated he may well do, that will add another 1lb on top of that.

    Only 2 of the last 20 winners have carried 11st or more and the most was 11st 1lb.

    My Will, theoretically “well-in” and current favourite, will now carry at least 11st 3lbs and current third favourite Black Apalachi will now be on at least 11st 4lbs. Tall order for either.
  • edited March 2009
    They're dropping like flies.
    Roll Along said to be very unlikely to run by Carl Llewellyn.
    King Johns Castle now ruled out with injury.
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  • Will Denman run?
  • [cite]Posted By: guinnessaddick[/cite]Will Denman run?

    Not a chance.

    Far too dangerous.Should be running in one of the other races during the 3 days.
  • [cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]They're dropping like flies.
    Roll Along said to be very unlikely to run by Carl Llewellyn.
    King Johns Castle now ruled out with injury.


    2 of my draft choices out! Think i'm going to wait for the final 40 or so.
  • Brooklyn Brownie is another I have now backed e/w at 40-1
  • Character Building for me as he is a grey and I back greys in the National. Totally ineffective but I loved Nicholas Silver. Will wait to see the going before I try to pick a winner.
  • [cite]Posted By: carly burn[/cite]
    [cite]Posted By: guinnessaddick[/cite]Will Denman run?

    Not a chance.

    Far too dangerous.Should be running in one of the other races during the 3 days.

    Denman can't now run in the National as it was withdrawn at the last declaration stage. It is entered in the Totesport Bowl at Aintree and Paul Nicholls is keen to run it in that.

    Solid support for War Of Attrition in the last week.
  • got War of Attrition @ 33's couple of weeks back....lot of whispers in Ireland about this one
  • [cite]Posted By: howitzer[/cite]got War of Attrition @ 33's couple of weeks back....lot of whispers in Ireland about this one

    It's got the class to win but will probably have to hump 11st 9lb round and no horse since Red Rum in 1974 has managed to do that.

    Still a good each way bet though at 33's.
  • Can't see WOA getting in the top 4 at that weight to be honest.
  • Denman vs Exotic Dancer in the Bowl will be a cracker.

    Definitely one for the purists as opposed to the lottery that is the National....
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  • [cite]Posted By: kinveachyaddick[/cite]Denman vs Exotic Dancer in the Bowl will be a cracker.

    Definitely one for the purists as opposed to the lottery that is the National....

    If,as has been reported,Denman has improved even more since his run at cheltenham then it will be no contest.
    Reckon he would have won the gold cup if it had been 2/3 weeks later.
  • Was told whilst very drunk by a good pal at Twickenham on Saturday that 'Hear The Echo' at 16s/18s has been laid out for the race.

    Having been at Cheltenham, and backed Denman, disagree that he might've won it 2/3 weeks later. . .
  • LATEST GOING ON GRAND NATIONAL COURSE:

    As at 4.45pm Tuesday 24th March: Good (Good to Soft in places)

    Showery weather forecast until this coming Sunday.
  • Denman can't have been more than 90% fit at best at Chelts and still only Kauto was too good for him so agree with Carly Burn he should win the Bowl, so long as the ground doesn't dry out too much
  • [cite]Posted By: stilladdicted[/cite]Character Building for me as he is a grey and I back greys in the National. Totally ineffective but I loved Nicholas Silver. Will wait to see the going before I try to pick a winner.

    Sorry to report that Chatacter Building is out of the National.
  • Out of my original 4, only 1 is left.

    Parsons Legacy it is...
  • Oh dear L Block - been a bit unlucky with your ante-posts

    Peanuts on the other hand are all still looking quite tasty - Rambo and Brooklyn in particular IMO
  • edited March 2009
    GOING UPDATE:

    As at 12pm Saturday 28th March: Good to Soft (Good in places) on the Grand National Course - goingstick reading of 6.3 (taken on Friday) so definitely some cut in the ground at the moment but they didn't get the rain they had expected on Friday night.

    Forecast is for possibility of drizzle only off and on until Wednesday and warming up as the week goes on. Racing Post reports that they may water if it dries out too quickly.

    Shame about Character Building. Will be very interesting to see who's left in after Monday's confirmation stage and how much the weights go up by.
  • Happy with Parsons Legacy, seen him tipped up in a few places as well now. Got him at 40s.
  • edited March 2009
    UPDATE AFTER 5 DAY CONFIRMATION STAGE:

    A few defections at the top of the order means that the weights go up 3lbs and Cloudy Lane carries top weight of 11-10.

    No horse since Corbiere in 1983 has shouldered anything more than 11-01 to victory and, excluding Red Rum, no horse has carried any more than 11-5 to victory since 1957.

    The rise in weights puts My Will (current market fav) on 11-04 and Comply Or Die on 11-06 (11lbs more than when winning last year).

    The weight rise hasn’t caused any major change to results of my version of a statistical best-fit analysis, which indicates that the winner should be one of:

    Rambling Minster 10-09 (will handle any ground)
    Brooklyn Brownie 10-06 (would prefer decent ground) - and he's ridden by a Kinsella! Can't be bad.
    Kilbeggan Blade 10-07 (chances improved on soft ground)
    Mon Mome 11-00 (must have soft ground - pretty unlikely according to forecast)

    Place possibilities for:

    Cornish Sett 10-10 (providing he wears his blinkers)
    Maljimar 10-04 (needs only 1 to come out [after War of Attrition being scratched late today] before Saturday morning to get in the line-up)

    Good luck.


    GOING UPDATE FOR THE NATIONAL COURSE:

    at 5.45pm Monday 30th March: Good (Good to Soft in places)

    Forecast is dry and warming up through the week
    They'll start watering the National Course tomorrow to keep the ground safe.
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