I know I'm the Prophet of Doom but please don't shoot me:
"WAR OF ATTRITION will miss Saturday's John Smith's Grand National after trainer Mouse Morris described himself "not entirely happy " with the 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner.
The star Irish chaser had been the subject of a major gamble for the Aintree highlight, but Morris, owner Michael O'Ryan and jockey Davy Russell will now be represented by Hear The Echo.
Morris said: "We weren't 100 per cent happy with War Of Attrition this morning and we've decided against sending him to Aintree. Hear The Echo is 110 per cent and he will be our runner in the National."
War Of Attrition, who missed the Cheltenham Gold Cup this month due to being slightly jarred, is likely to head for the Guinness Gold Cup at the Punchestown festival"
A bit smelly this withdrawal of War of Attrition. It was only yesterday that Mouse Morris said that WoA was the more likely of his 2 to run. They're both owned by O'Leary (Ryanair boss) and you have to wonder if they knew WoA wasn't quite right but kept him in at today's confirmation stage in case Cloudy Lane came out, which (if WoA had been taken out aswell) would have put the weights up 5lbs rather than just the 3lbs they went up by Snoopy Loopy & Nozic coming out. Every pound above 11st counts big in this race and Hear the Echo could have ended up with a near-impossible 11st 7lbs; as it is he is shouldering 11st 5lbs.
They're perfectly entitled to do that but, given the big gamble that had developed on WoA over the past week, there are plenty of seriously unhappy Irish punters out there.
[cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]They're perfectly entitled to do that but, given the big gamble that had developed on WoA over the past week, there are plenty of seriously unhappy Irish punters out there.
I totally agree with the sentiment Peanuts but I think the Irish accept it as the norm. You only have to look at the Kicking King and New Approach fiascos to take everything an Irish Trainer says with more than a pinch of salt.
[cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]UPDATE AFTER 5 DAY CONFIRMATION STAGE:
A few defections at the top of the order means that the weights go up 3lbs and Cloudy Lane carries top weight of 11-10.
No horse since Corbiere in 1983 has shouldered anything more than 11-01 to victory and, excluding Red Rum, no horse has carried any more than 11-5 to victory since 1957.
The rise in weights puts My Will (current market fav) on 11-04 and Comply Or Die on 11-06 (11lbs more than when winning last year).
The weight rise hasn’t caused any major change to results of my version of a statistical best-fit analysis, which indicates that the winner should be one of:
Rambling Minster 10-09 (will handle any ground)
Brooklyn Brownie 10-06 (would prefer decent ground) - and he's ridden by a Kinsella! Can't be bad.
Kilbeggan Blade 10-07 (chances improved on soft ground)
Mon Mome 11-00 (must have soft ground - pretty unlikely according to forecast)
Place possibilities for:
Cornish Sett 10-10 (providing he wears his blinkers)
Maljimar 10-04 (needs only 1 to come out [after War of Attrition being scratched late today] before Saturday morning to get in the line-up)
Good luck.
GOING UPDATE FOR THE NATIONAL COURSE:
at 5.45pm Monday 30th March: Good (Good to Soft in places)
Forecast is dry and warming up through the week
They'll start watering the National Course tomorrow to keep the ground safe.
Any horse combining Brownie and Kinsella is going to get my backing!
[cite]Posted By: PeanutsMolloy[/cite]They're perfectly entitled to do that but, given the big gamble that had developed on WoA over the past week, there are plenty of seriously unhappy Irish punters out there.
I totally agree with the sentiment Peanuts but I think the Irish accept it as the norm. You only have to look at the Kicking King and New Approach fiascos to take everything an Irish Trainer says with more than a pinch of salt.
[cite]Posted By: Heath Hero[/cite]
Any horse combining Brownie and Kinsella is going to get my backing!
Good spot - nailed on!
You can still get 40/1 with Hills - generally 33/1.
At least yesterday Victor Chandler were offering a refund of stake if your horse falls or unseats rider or gets brought down, aswell as non-runner no bet (which I think most of them are offering at the moment).
The one that I'll put up as the horse fits the majority of the trends and looks a typical late Irish gamble is Himalayan Trail. Connections paid £130,000 for him after he won the Midlands National and it's now with the stable that won the 2003 renewal with Monty's Pass. Typical wrong ground and and trip run over hurdles last time out, the 33/1 currently available with the Bookies and 40 on Betfair looks more than fair enough imho.
[cite]Posted By: Addick Addict[/cite]The one that I'll put up as the horse fits the majority of the trends and looks a typical late Irish gamble is Himalayan Trail. Connections paid £130,000 for him after he won the Midlands National and it's now with the stable that won the 2003 renewal with Monty's Pass. Typical wrong ground and and trip run over hurdles last time out, the 33/1 currently available with the Bookies and 40 on Betfair looks more than fair enough imho.
Interesting. Any idea who is likely to ride the beast?
[cite]Posted By: Addick Addict[/cite]The one that I'll put up as the horse fits the majority of the trends and looks a typical late Irish gamble is Himalayan Trail. Connections paid £130,000 for him after he won the Midlands National and it's now with the stable that won the 2003 renewal with Monty's Pass. Typical wrong ground and and trip run over hurdles last time out, the 33/1 currently available with the Bookies and 40 on Betfair looks more than fair enough imho.
Interesting. Any idea who is likely to ride the beast?
Not entirely sure mlc BUT Barry Geraghty rode it in November in the Beecher Chase AND he rode Monty's Pass for the Trainer so if he were to pass over the chance to ride any of Hendersons in the race then that, I would suggest, would be a tip in itself.
Anyway why are you questioning my selection? Wasn't Helen's Vision et al enough evidence for you to blindly follow me in :-)
I have been looking at past national results and trying to look at the trends that might help us pick the national winner.
· Only one horse in the last 25 years has carried more than 11 stone to victory. Only one horse in the last 51 years, the great Red Rum, has won the race carrying more than 11 stone 5lbs. This is a very important statistic to keep in mind when you consider the numbers involved during that period.
· A seven year old has not won the Grand National for 68 years and it's 95 years since a six year old was last victorious.
· Nine year olds have won 4 Nationals in the last 10 years and runners aged between ten and twelve have won 12 of the last 19 renewals.
· Teenagers need to be avoided with none even in the frame since 1969. The last winner was 86 years ago.
· Only one horse that either won or was placed in a previous year’s National has gone on to win a later renewal of the race since 1998. During the same period there have been three National winners who didn’t finish a previous year’s contest.
· There have been five Irish trained winners in the last nine renewals.
· Since 1970 every winner had previously won over 3 miles or more.
· 4 of the last 5 Grand National winners had run over hurdles in the year they won the race.
· French bred runners have a poor record.
· Runners with an official rating of between 136 and 157 have been responsible for winning the last 21 renewals.
· All of the last 11 winners had previously won a chase worth at least £17,000.
Having looked closely at the form none of the horses tick all the boxes but based on everything above here are my tips –
Southern Vic 22/1 Sporting Bet – Ticks the most ‘trend’ boxes of any horse in the race. Trained in Ireland by Ted Walsh this horse has won three races in the past worth 17k or more, has a had competitive run over hurdles this year in a good race at Navan. 10 year old with a weight of 10 stone 9 lb to carry gives him the ideal profile of a national winner. The only box he doesn’t really tick is that he has not won at over 3 miles however has ran well over longer distances most markedly last time when staying on with a big weight to finish third around Naas.
Kilbeggan Blade 20/1 General - Another 10 year old and only carries 10 stone 7. Won the London National at Sandown in December (3m 5f) with a lumpy old weight of 11stone 7lb on his back proving that he has both class and stamina in abundance. He has been campaigned in Novice Hurdles just to keep him fresh without over excursion, which as the stats show is a good thing.
Battlecry 50/1 General – I have to admit this is more of a sentimental bet for me having followed this horse since he first ran in a bumper. Having said that though he does tick a lot of the trend boxes and looks extremely well handicapped on his best chase form of last of year and perhaps could be excused his last couple of runs due to the poor stable form from the Twiston Davies yard. The Twister now seems to be firing again now and drying ground and a flat track will suit this horse, who ran well at Aintree last season. Even so there are doubts over his stamina it would still be hard to fancy this horse based on what he has achieved this season so pennies rather than pounds on this one.
[cite]Posted By: Addick Addict[/cite]The one that I'll put up as the horse fits the majority of the trends and looks a typical late Irish gamble is Himalayan Trail. Connections paid £130,000 for him after he won the Midlands National and it's now with the stable that won the 2003 renewal with Monty's Pass. Typical wrong ground and and trip run over hurdles last time out, the 33/1 currently available with the Bookies and 40 on Betfair looks more than fair enough imho.
Interesting. Any idea who is likely to ride the beast?
Not entirely sure mlc BUT Barry Geraghty rode it in November in the Beecher Chase AND he rode Monty's Pass for the Trainer so if he were to pass over the chance to ride any of Hendersons in the race then that, I would suggest, would be a tip in itself.
Anyway why are you questioning my selection? Wasn't Helen's Vision et al enough evidence for you to blindly follow me in :-)
You know me Gary, I'm always prepared to follow you over the cliff :-)
If Geraghty were to take the mount, it would probably end up half the current odds.
[cite]Posted By: Addick Addict[/cite]The one that I'll put up as the horse fits the majority of the trends and looks a typical late Irish gamble is Himalayan Trail. Connections paid £130,000 for him after he won the Midlands National and it's now with the stable that won the 2003 renewal with Monty's Pass. Typical wrong ground and and trip run over hurdles last time out, the 33/1 currently available with the Bookies and 40 on Betfair looks more than fair enough imho.
[cite]Posted By: Addick Addict[/cite]The one that I'll put up as the horse fits the majority of the trends and looks a typical late Irish gamble is Himalayan Trail. Connections paid £130,000 for him after he won the Midlands National and it's now with the stable that won the 2003 renewal with Monty's Pass. Typical wrong ground and and trip run over hurdles last time out, the 33/1 currently available with the Bookies and 40 on Betfair looks more than fair enough imho.
I took the 42 available on Betfair last night and also had some each way at 33/1 with Stan James who offer 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 at Guaranteed Odds.
Poor Denman.Fell second last.Looked pretty bad and hope he makes it through.
Sadly,it seems,he is no way the same horse that won the gold cup last year.
[cite]Posted By: Addick Addict[/cite]The one that I'll put up as the horse fits the majority of the trends and looks a typical late Irish gamble is Himalayan Trail. Connections paid £130,000 for him after he won the Midlands National and it's now with the stable that won the 2003 renewal with Monty's Pass. Typical wrong ground and and trip run over hurdles last time out, the 33/1 currently available with the Bookies and 40 on Betfair looks more than fair enough imho.
I took the 42 available on Betfair last night and also had some each way at 33/1 with Stan James who offer 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 at Guaranteed Odds.
Great minds think alike. I too have taken betfair's 42/1 and 10/1 the place.
Comments
11/1 anti post at the moment .... dont think the price will get any bigger than that !
Fill Ya Boots !!!
"WAR OF ATTRITION will miss Saturday's John Smith's Grand National after trainer Mouse Morris described himself "not entirely happy " with the 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner.
The star Irish chaser had been the subject of a major gamble for the Aintree highlight, but Morris, owner Michael O'Ryan and jockey Davy Russell will now be represented by Hear The Echo.
Morris said: "We weren't 100 per cent happy with War Of Attrition this morning and we've decided against sending him to Aintree. Hear The Echo is 110 per cent and he will be our runner in the National."
War Of Attrition, who missed the Cheltenham Gold Cup this month due to being slightly jarred, is likely to head for the Guinness Gold Cup at the Punchestown festival"
They're perfectly entitled to do that but, given the big gamble that had developed on WoA over the past week, there are plenty of seriously unhappy Irish punters out there.
Was told whilst very drunk by a good pal at Twickenham on Saturday that 'Hear The Echo' at 16s/18s has been laid out for the race
I totally agree with the sentiment Peanuts but I think the Irish accept it as the norm. You only have to look at the Kicking King and New Approach fiascos to take everything an Irish Trainer says with more than a pinch of salt.
So you did, sorry completely missed that.
The final 3 i have backed are:
Rambling Minster
State of Play
Parsons Legacy
May have a nibble on Hear the Echo on the day after seeeing what the market does.
Any horse combining Brownie and Kinsella is going to get my backing!
To be sure, to be sure
Good spot - nailed on!
You can still get 40/1 with Hills - generally 33/1.
At least yesterday Victor Chandler were offering a refund of stake if your horse falls or unseats rider or gets brought down, aswell as non-runner no bet (which I think most of them are offering at the moment).
Interesting. Any idea who is likely to ride the beast?
Not entirely sure mlc BUT Barry Geraghty rode it in November in the Beecher Chase AND he rode Monty's Pass for the Trainer so if he were to pass over the chance to ride any of Hendersons in the race then that, I would suggest, would be a tip in itself.
Anyway why are you questioning my selection? Wasn't Helen's Vision et al enough evidence for you to blindly follow me in :-)
· Only one horse in the last 25 years has carried more than 11 stone to victory. Only one horse in the last 51 years, the great Red Rum, has won the race carrying more than 11 stone 5lbs. This is a very important statistic to keep in mind when you consider the numbers involved during that period.
· A seven year old has not won the Grand National for 68 years and it's 95 years since a six year old was last victorious.
· Nine year olds have won 4 Nationals in the last 10 years and runners aged between ten and twelve have won 12 of the last 19 renewals.
· Teenagers need to be avoided with none even in the frame since 1969. The last winner was 86 years ago.
· Only one horse that either won or was placed in a previous year’s National has gone on to win a later renewal of the race since 1998. During the same period there have been three National winners who didn’t finish a previous year’s contest.
· There have been five Irish trained winners in the last nine renewals.
· Since 1970 every winner had previously won over 3 miles or more.
· 4 of the last 5 Grand National winners had run over hurdles in the year they won the race.
· French bred runners have a poor record.
· Runners with an official rating of between 136 and 157 have been responsible for winning the last 21 renewals.
· All of the last 11 winners had previously won a chase worth at least £17,000.
Having looked closely at the form none of the horses tick all the boxes but based on everything above here are my tips –
Southern Vic 22/1 Sporting Bet – Ticks the most ‘trend’ boxes of any horse in the race. Trained in Ireland by Ted Walsh this horse has won three races in the past worth 17k or more, has a had competitive run over hurdles this year in a good race at Navan. 10 year old with a weight of 10 stone 9 lb to carry gives him the ideal profile of a national winner. The only box he doesn’t really tick is that he has not won at over 3 miles however has ran well over longer distances most markedly last time when staying on with a big weight to finish third around Naas.
Kilbeggan Blade 20/1 General - Another 10 year old and only carries 10 stone 7. Won the London National at Sandown in December (3m 5f) with a lumpy old weight of 11stone 7lb on his back proving that he has both class and stamina in abundance. He has been campaigned in Novice Hurdles just to keep him fresh without over excursion, which as the stats show is a good thing.
Battlecry 50/1 General – I have to admit this is more of a sentimental bet for me having followed this horse since he first ran in a bumper. Having said that though he does tick a lot of the trend boxes and looks extremely well handicapped on his best chase form of last of year and perhaps could be excused his last couple of runs due to the poor stable form from the Twiston Davies yard. The Twister now seems to be firing again now and drying ground and a flat track will suit this horse, who ran well at Aintree last season. Even so there are doubts over his stamina it would still be hard to fancy this horse based on what he has achieved this season so pennies rather than pounds on this one.
You know me Gary, I'm always prepared to follow you over the cliff :-)
If Geraghty were to take the mount, it would probably end up half the current odds.
Been looking at this, very interesting runner.
I took the 42 available on Betfair last night and also had some each way at 33/1 with Stan James who offer 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 at Guaranteed Odds.
Sadly,it seems,he is no way the same horse that won the gold cup last year.
Give me some names for a decent E/W bet
Kilbeggan Blade
Darkness
Himalayan Trail
Cornish Sett
Cheers
I'd agree with this
Great minds think alike. I too have taken betfair's 42/1 and 10/1 the place.
done himalayan trail e/w
but the more i look at it i'm liking the look of offshore account.
Brooklyn Brownie @ 28-1
Golden Flight @ 66-1
Rambling Minster @ 8-1
Kilbeggan Blade @ 20-1